Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

The lifestyles of the growing middle classes in the Philippines have a potentially significant impact on the environment. To what extent and how this happens depends on the attitudes, aspirations and actual consumption practices of the middle classes. Environmental knowledge, environmental concern, wealth and international experience present the key concepts for the exploratory analysis of consumer behaviour. This contribution draws on a unique combination of quantitative and qualitative data, using national and city-level household surveys as well as insights from focus group discussions. The study finds that higher wealth levels and environmental concern influence reported energy saving behaviours. Younger, female and environmentally concerned consumers also tend to choose more sustainable modes of transport, but the correlation is weak. Overall, more carbon intensive, unsustainable consumption patterns can be expected as households move up the socioeconomic ladder. While the middle classes score fairly highly on the measurement scales of environmental concern and knowledge, education, savings and income security matter more to them in day-to-day life. For prospective sustainable consumption policies, our results imply that more action that draws on behavioural insights is needed to overcome the knowledge–action gap.

The lifestyles of the growing middle classes in the Philippines have a potentially significant impact on the environment. To what extent and how this happens depends on the attitudes, aspirations and actual consumption practices of the middle classes. Environmental knowledge, environmental concern, wealth and international experience present the key concepts for the exploratory analysis of consumer behaviour. This contribution draws on a unique combination of quantitative and qualitative data, using national and city-level household surveys as well as insights from focus group discussions. The study finds that higher wealth levels and environmental concern influence reported energy saving behaviours. Younger, female and environmentally concerned consumers also tend to choose more sustainable modes of transport, but the correlation is weak. Overall, more carbon intensive, unsustainable consumption patterns can be expected as households move up the socioeconomic ladder. While the middle classes score fairly highly on the measurement scales of environmental concern and knowledge, education, savings and income security matter more to them in day-to-day life. For prospective sustainable consumption policies, our results imply that more action that draws on behavioural insights is needed to overcome the knowledge–action gap.

The lifestyles of the growing middle classes in the Philippines have a potentially significant impact on the environment. To what extent and how this happens depends on the attitudes, aspirations and actual consumption practices of the middle classes. Environmental knowledge, environmental concern, wealth and international experience present the key concepts for the exploratory analysis of consumer behaviour. This contribution draws on a unique combination of quantitative and qualitative data, using national and city-level household surveys as well as insights from focus group discussions. The study finds that higher wealth levels and environmental concern influence reported energy saving behaviours. Younger, female and environmentally concerned consumers also tend to choose more sustainable modes of transport, but the correlation is weak. Overall, more carbon intensive, unsustainable consumption patterns can be expected as households move up the socioeconomic ladder. While the middle classes score fairly highly on the measurement scales of environmental concern and knowledge, education, savings and income security matter more to them in day-to-day life. For prospective sustainable consumption policies, our results imply that more action that draws on behavioural insights is needed to overcome the knowledge–action gap.

Does international politics influence domestic politics? In the investment treaty regime, there is currently a debate about whether investor-state dispute settlement cases influence respondent state domestic regulation. We present a systematic test of this relationship. Using two unique datasets, we examine whether investor-state cases targeting environmental measures influence respondent states’ environmental regulation. We make two theoretical contributions. First, we present an integrated typology of potential regulatory responses to investor-state dispute settlement cases. Second, we propose a novel, conditional theory of regulatory responses to investor-state cases. We argue that states’ responses should depend on their bureaucratic capacity. In our analysis, we find that respondent state bureaucratic capacity conditions the relationship between investor-state cases and subsequent domestic regulation. There is a more pronounced negative relationship between investor-state cases and regulatory behavior in states with high bureaucratic capacity than in low-capacity states.

Does international politics influence domestic politics? In the investment treaty regime, there is currently a debate about whether investor-state dispute settlement cases influence respondent state domestic regulation. We present a systematic test of this relationship. Using two unique datasets, we examine whether investor-state cases targeting environmental measures influence respondent states’ environmental regulation. We make two theoretical contributions. First, we present an integrated typology of potential regulatory responses to investor-state dispute settlement cases. Second, we propose a novel, conditional theory of regulatory responses to investor-state cases. We argue that states’ responses should depend on their bureaucratic capacity. In our analysis, we find that respondent state bureaucratic capacity conditions the relationship between investor-state cases and subsequent domestic regulation. There is a more pronounced negative relationship between investor-state cases and regulatory behavior in states with high bureaucratic capacity than in low-capacity states.

Does international politics influence domestic politics? In the investment treaty regime, there is currently a debate about whether investor-state dispute settlement cases influence respondent state domestic regulation. We present a systematic test of this relationship. Using two unique datasets, we examine whether investor-state cases targeting environmental measures influence respondent states’ environmental regulation. We make two theoretical contributions. First, we present an integrated typology of potential regulatory responses to investor-state dispute settlement cases. Second, we propose a novel, conditional theory of regulatory responses to investor-state cases. We argue that states’ responses should depend on their bureaucratic capacity. In our analysis, we find that respondent state bureaucratic capacity conditions the relationship between investor-state cases and subsequent domestic regulation. There is a more pronounced negative relationship between investor-state cases and regulatory behavior in states with high bureaucratic capacity than in low-capacity states.

Carmen Jordá Sanz. ARI 51/2021 - 30/4/2021

Hace escasas semanas se iniciaba el mayor juicio contra la Mafia calabresa de las últimas décadas en Italia ¿Qué supone este proceso para la sociedad italiana?; ¿y qué podemos aprender de la lucha contra el crimen organizado?

Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist nach Schätzung des Statistischen Bundesamtes im ersten Quartal deutlich geschrumpft. Dazu ein Statement von Claus Michelsen, Konjunkturchef des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin):

Das heftige Wiederaufflammen der Corona-Pandemie hat die deutsche Wirtschaft im ersten Quartal erneut einbrechen lassen. Insgesamt sank die Wirtschaftsleistung im ersten Quartal dieses Jahres um 1,7 Prozent. Dies liegt im Rahmen der Erwartung.  

Damit ist die Wertschöpfung deutlich weniger stark zurückgegangen als im Frühjahr des letzten Jahres. Betroffen waren in erster Linie die Dienstleistungsbereiche, der Handel und die Gastronomie, die im ersten Quartal ihre Geschäftstätigkeit weitgehend einstellen mussten. Die Industrie hingegen hat kräftig gestützt – hier kam es anders als im vergangenen Jahr nicht zu größeren Unterbrechungen der Lieferketten. Gleichwohl verlief der Produktionsprozess nicht vollkommen störungsfrei: Automobilhersteller hatten einige Probleme bei der Beschaffung wichtiger Bauteile und auch die Blockade des Suezkanals hat kurzfristig zu Verzögerungen gesorgt.  

Dennoch stimmt die kräftige Nachfrage vor allem aus Fernost und den USA nach deutschen Maschinen und Anlagen aber auch nach Kraftfahrzeugen positiv für die weitere Entwicklung. Es scheint, als könnte sich die deutsche Wirtschaft abermals aus einer Krise heraus exportieren. Für eine nachhaltige Erholung ist die Bekämpfung der Pandemie zentral. Wichtig ist es, Instrumente für eine sichere Öffnung der Dienstleistungs- und Handelsbereich im Land zu finden und die Impfkampagne mit hohem Tempo voranzutreiben. Ansonsten droht eine lange Phase des Stop-and-go für die wirtschaftliche Erholung, wie es bereits jetzt zu beobachten ist.  

Der Silberstreif am Horizont ist der Impfschutz, der voraussichtlich in den Sommermonaten ausreichen wird, um die Corona-Pandemie in Deutschland zu stoppen. Der Erholungsprozess kann dann schnell einsetzten, wenn die Haushalte die Ersparnisse aus der Pandemiezeit ausgeben. Allerdings werden selbst dann nicht alle Unternehmen die Krise überleben. Unternehmensinsolvenzen könnten den Erholungsprozess weiter ausbremsen und Spuren auf dem Arbeitsmarkt hinterlassen.

The Nord Stream 2 project presents the German government with the dilemma of choosing between energy and foreign policy interests. Geopolitical arguments often prevail in the political discourse. Yet, a weighing of priorities requires a look at the energy policy context, too. When it comes to balancing interests, there are no easy or “cheap” answers. With a focus on the energy context, it has to be emphasized that a cooperative approach toward energy transformation promises the greatest dividend for a balance of interests, but it presupposes a minimum consensus within the Euro­pean Union (EU), along with the United States (US), Ukraine, and Russia.

Mónica Martínez Castañeda y Claudio Feijoo. ARI 50/2021 - 29/4/2021

Se identifican los principales retos en la evolución de la soberanía y el control de los datos en las cadenas agroalimentarias internacionales y las oportunidades y desafíos que ofrecen las nuevas tecnologías en la promoción y distribución agroalimentaria.

Das Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetz greife zu kurz, urteilte heute das Bundesverfassungsgericht. Der Bund müsse nachbessern. Energieökonomin Claudia Kemfert, Leiterin der Abteilung Energie, Verkehr, Umwelt am Deutschen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin), kommentiert die Entscheidung des Bundesverfassungsgerichts wie folgt:

Die Entscheidung des Bundesverfassungsgerichts zum Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetz ist historisch und verdeutlicht, dass Klimaschutz eine Grundrechtsfrage ist. Vor allem zukünftige Generationen müssen demnach geschützt werden und dürfen nicht in ihren Freiheitsrechten beeinträchtigt werden. Das Bundesverfassungsgericht verlangt, dass die Klimaschutzziele für die kommenden Jahrzehnte, auch nach 2030, eindeutig definiert werden müssen, um künftige Generationen zu schützen. Die jetzige Gesetzeslegung schafft Fehlanreize, wenn nicht eindeutig definiert wird, wie die Treibhausgasemissionen bis zur vollständigen Emissionsvermeidung bis spätestens 2050 reduziert werden sollen. Die Karlsruher Richter haben völlig recht, wenn sie sagen, dass die bestehenden Vorschriften hohe Emissionsminderungslasten unumkehrbar auf die Zeiträume nach 2030 verschieben. Klimaschutz erfordert rasches Handeln und keine weitere Verzögerung, um die Grundrechte künftiger Generationen zu sichern. Wir benötigen neue Verträge, die sicherstellen, dass alle Nachhaltigkeits- und Klimaziele dauerhaft eingehalten werden.

Die Karlsruher Richter bestätigen zudem unsere Forschungsergebnisse im Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen, dass Klimaschutz im Einklang stehen muss mit einem maximalen Treibhausgasbudget, das bisher nicht ausreichend berücksichtigt wurde. Die Richter haben damit völlig zu Recht den notwendigen wissenschaftlichen Kenntnisstand als Grundlage für ihre Begründung aufgegriffen. Dieses Urteil schafft endlich juristische Klarheit und macht deutlich, wie bedeutsam der Klimaschutz für alle Generationen ist.

The demand for space cooling and, accordingly, room air conditioners sales are soaring, especially in tropical middle income countries. Energy demand for space cooling is expected to triple till 2050. These market dynamics present a challenge from an energy security and a global warming perspective. In parallel, positive effects of air conditioner ownership on human development are becoming increasingly clear. Policymakers and technical cooperation agencies tend to focus either on the phase-in of new technologies or the end-of-life stage, neglecting the phase in between. This report analyses the second hand market of air conditioners in the Philipppines. It focuses on the question when and how to regulate the second hand market to balance energy, climate, resource and social impacts. It analyses prevalent business models, sales, prices, customers as well as energy efficiency and resource use. Several policy options for dealing with the second hand air conditioner market are developed.

The demand for space cooling and, accordingly, room air conditioners sales are soaring, especially in tropical middle income countries. Energy demand for space cooling is expected to triple till 2050. These market dynamics present a challenge from an energy security and a global warming perspective. In parallel, positive effects of air conditioner ownership on human development are becoming increasingly clear. Policymakers and technical cooperation agencies tend to focus either on the phase-in of new technologies or the end-of-life stage, neglecting the phase in between. This report analyses the second hand market of air conditioners in the Philipppines. It focuses on the question when and how to regulate the second hand market to balance energy, climate, resource and social impacts. It analyses prevalent business models, sales, prices, customers as well as energy efficiency and resource use. Several policy options for dealing with the second hand air conditioner market are developed.

The demand for space cooling and, accordingly, room air conditioners sales are soaring, especially in tropical middle income countries. Energy demand for space cooling is expected to triple till 2050. These market dynamics present a challenge from an energy security and a global warming perspective. In parallel, positive effects of air conditioner ownership on human development are becoming increasingly clear. Policymakers and technical cooperation agencies tend to focus either on the phase-in of new technologies or the end-of-life stage, neglecting the phase in between. This report analyses the second hand market of air conditioners in the Philipppines. It focuses on the question when and how to regulate the second hand market to balance energy, climate, resource and social impacts. It analyses prevalent business models, sales, prices, customers as well as energy efficiency and resource use. Several policy options for dealing with the second hand air conditioner market are developed.

The T20 process has been put on a new footing during the German T20 process in 2017 by establishing issue-specific task forces as the key organisational structure. Task forces have evolved throughout the years, and other elements have been added, such as inviting think tanks from the region of the hosting nation and from Africa, and issuing calls for papers. After 4 years, we believe, it is time to reflect on the T20’s achievements as well as areas for improvement. In this concept note, we focus mainly on process-related and structural issues as a prerequisite to advance specific recommendations to the G20 on pressing global challenges. As longstanding participants of the T20, we describe in the following our view on the purpose and current shortcomings of the T20 process and make suggestions on how the process could be reformed to allow the group to realise its full potential to become more impactful, effective and continuous while maintaining the T20’s diversity, inclusiveness and dialogue-orientation. In particular, we propose a number of reforms of the governance of the T20.

The T20 process has been put on a new footing during the German T20 process in 2017 by establishing issue-specific task forces as the key organisational structure. Task forces have evolved throughout the years, and other elements have been added, such as inviting think tanks from the region of the hosting nation and from Africa, and issuing calls for papers. After 4 years, we believe, it is time to reflect on the T20’s achievements as well as areas for improvement. In this concept note, we focus mainly on process-related and structural issues as a prerequisite to advance specific recommendations to the G20 on pressing global challenges. As longstanding participants of the T20, we describe in the following our view on the purpose and current shortcomings of the T20 process and make suggestions on how the process could be reformed to allow the group to realise its full potential to become more impactful, effective and continuous while maintaining the T20’s diversity, inclusiveness and dialogue-orientation. In particular, we propose a number of reforms of the governance of the T20.

The T20 process has been put on a new footing during the German T20 process in 2017 by establishing issue-specific task forces as the key organisational structure. Task forces have evolved throughout the years, and other elements have been added, such as inviting think tanks from the region of the hosting nation and from Africa, and issuing calls for papers. After 4 years, we believe, it is time to reflect on the T20’s achievements as well as areas for improvement. In this concept note, we focus mainly on process-related and structural issues as a prerequisite to advance specific recommendations to the G20 on pressing global challenges. As longstanding participants of the T20, we describe in the following our view on the purpose and current shortcomings of the T20 process and make suggestions on how the process could be reformed to allow the group to realise its full potential to become more impactful, effective and continuous while maintaining the T20’s diversity, inclusiveness and dialogue-orientation. In particular, we propose a number of reforms of the governance of the T20.

The UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA) currently manages twenty-five special political missions (SPMs) that have a field presence. Nonetheless, research and guidance on UN transitions has mainly focused on peacekeeping operations. This paper takes a first step toward filling that gap by exploring transitions from SPMs to UN country teams (UNCTs).

Focusing on the programmatic and political aspects of transitions, this paper explores the particular challenges of transitioning from an SPM to a UNCT by studying the closure of four missions: the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) in 2011, the United Nations Office in Burundi (BNUB) in 2014, the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL) in 2014, and the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) in 2020. After presenting the main characteristics of SPMs, it discusses some of the challenges and characteristics of SPM transitions based on the four case studies.

These four case studies show that the drawdown of special political missions with a field presence shares several features with the drawdown of peacekeeping missions, but some aspects are specific to SPMs. In the coming years, the UN will need to develop a more comprehensive picture of the key elements to take into consideration during SPMs’ lifecycles and transitions, as well as specific guidance on the transition of SPMs. This could help the UN deliver a “continuum of responses and smoother transitions” while supporting national priorities.

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