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Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Effects of policy and functional (in)coherence on coordination – A comparative analysis of cross-sectoral water management problems

Coherence and coordination among interdependent policy sectors are considered key for the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Literature on policy coherence argues that a lack of coordination may lead to policy incoherence; however, literature on coordination also sometimes points to the reversed causality that incoherencies in policies or in governance functions (functional incoherence) may hinder coordinated policy outcomes; in fact, these assumptions have rarely been further theorized or tested empirically. In this paper, we hypothesize the higher functional or policy coherence, the higher coordination at process level and the higher the likelihood that coordination at process level is translated into coordination at outcome level. We test this hypothesis for cross-sectoral coordination challenges among different water using sectors in six different basins located in Germany, Iran, Mongolia, Spain, and South Africa. At first glance, four cases seem to confirm the first part of the hypothesis for functional coherence and three for policy coherence. It remains difficult to establish causality. Whether functional and policy coherence translate into coordination at process level seems to depend on a functioning coordination body. We further find that functional and policy incoherencies may either lead to coordination problems (in view of conflicts of interest) or even go along with a high level of coordination at the process level, possibly to compensate for incoherencies. Neither functional nor policy coherence change the relationship of coordination at process and outcome level. To explain coordination at the outcome level, other factors need to be considered.

Effects of policy and functional (in)coherence on coordination – A comparative analysis of cross-sectoral water management problems

Coherence and coordination among interdependent policy sectors are considered key for the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Literature on policy coherence argues that a lack of coordination may lead to policy incoherence; however, literature on coordination also sometimes points to the reversed causality that incoherencies in policies or in governance functions (functional incoherence) may hinder coordinated policy outcomes; in fact, these assumptions have rarely been further theorized or tested empirically. In this paper, we hypothesize the higher functional or policy coherence, the higher coordination at process level and the higher the likelihood that coordination at process level is translated into coordination at outcome level. We test this hypothesis for cross-sectoral coordination challenges among different water using sectors in six different basins located in Germany, Iran, Mongolia, Spain, and South Africa. At first glance, four cases seem to confirm the first part of the hypothesis for functional coherence and three for policy coherence. It remains difficult to establish causality. Whether functional and policy coherence translate into coordination at process level seems to depend on a functioning coordination body. We further find that functional and policy incoherencies may either lead to coordination problems (in view of conflicts of interest) or even go along with a high level of coordination at the process level, possibly to compensate for incoherencies. Neither functional nor policy coherence change the relationship of coordination at process and outcome level. To explain coordination at the outcome level, other factors need to be considered.

Streit im östlichen Mittelmeer – Griechenland, Türkei, Zypern

SWP - Thu, 10/02/2022 - 14:00

Die Türkei beansprucht im östlichen Mittelmeer einen Festlandsockel, der unmittelbar an das Küstenmeer der Republik Zypern und an das der griechischen Inseln heranreicht. Griechenland und Zypern machen dort jedoch ebenfalls Festlandsockelrechte geltend. Die daraus erwachsenden Spannungen destabilisieren die Region. Eine verbindliche Festlegung der maritimen Grenzen zwischen den drei Staaten würde Rechtssicherheit bringen. Gegenüber Griechenland hat die Türkei signalisiert, dass sie nicht ausschließe, unter gewissen Bedingungen den Internationalen Gerichtshof hiermit zu betrauen. Eine Abgrenzung im Gebiet westlich der Insel Zypern kommt für Ankara jedoch erst dann in Betracht, wenn die Zypernfrage vollständig geklärt ist. Solange keine Abgrenzung durch Übereinkunft oder durch ein inter­nationales Gericht erfolgt ist, müssen die drei Staaten gemäß dem Völkerrecht Zurückhaltung in Bezug auf die umstrittenen Seegebiete üben. Bohrungen auf dem Festlandsockel, die der Förderung von Erdgas dienen, sind in einem umstrittenen Gebiet nur zulässig, wenn hierüber Ein­vernehmen zwischen den betreffenden Staaten herrscht. Vorläufige Vereinbarungen, die eine gemeinsame Erschließung um­stritte­ner Seegebiete vorsehen, können zu einer Annäherung der Parteien bei­tragen und gegebenenfalls sogar den Weg für längerfristige Lösungen ebnen. Gerade mit der wachsenden Bedeutung des östlichen Mittelmeers als energiewirtschaftlicher Transit- und Verbindungsraum könnten sich neue Chancen für eine Zusammenarbeit eröffnen.

Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050

With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "target space." The 169 targets and 232 indicators used for monitoring SDG implementation cannot be used for this; they are too many, too broad, unstructured, and sometimes not formulated quantitatively. Here, we propose a streamlined set of science-based indicators and associated target values that are quantifiable and actionable to make scenario analysis meaningful, relevant, and simple enough to be transparent and communicable. The 36 targets are based on the SDGs, existing multilateral agreements, literature, and expert assessment. They include 2050 as a longer-term reference point. This target space can guide researchers in developing new sustainable development pathways.

Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050

With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "target space." The 169 targets and 232 indicators used for monitoring SDG implementation cannot be used for this; they are too many, too broad, unstructured, and sometimes not formulated quantitatively. Here, we propose a streamlined set of science-based indicators and associated target values that are quantifiable and actionable to make scenario analysis meaningful, relevant, and simple enough to be transparent and communicable. The 36 targets are based on the SDGs, existing multilateral agreements, literature, and expert assessment. They include 2050 as a longer-term reference point. This target space can guide researchers in developing new sustainable development pathways.

Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050

With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "target space." The 169 targets and 232 indicators used for monitoring SDG implementation cannot be used for this; they are too many, too broad, unstructured, and sometimes not formulated quantitatively. Here, we propose a streamlined set of science-based indicators and associated target values that are quantifiable and actionable to make scenario analysis meaningful, relevant, and simple enough to be transparent and communicable. The 36 targets are based on the SDGs, existing multilateral agreements, literature, and expert assessment. They include 2050 as a longer-term reference point. This target space can guide researchers in developing new sustainable development pathways.

New rules, same practice? Analysing UN Development System reform effects at the country level

With its unique multilateral assets, the United Nations Development System (UNDS) should be playing a key role in assisting governments and other stakeholders with their implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. But this requires change. Despite improvements in recent decades, too often the UNDS has continued to act as a loose assemblage of competing entities, undermining its effective support for Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) implementation. It is against that backdrop that the UNDS has been undergoing an extensive reform – that was decided on in 2018 and has been implemented since 2019 – to provide more coherent, integrated support in line with requirements of the 2030 Agenda to United Nations (UN) programme countries. What effects have the reforms yielded at the country level? This paper presents the main findings, conclusions and recommendations from our research on UNDS reform implementation. It does so with a focus on reform-induced changes towards what we call a strengthened, collective offer at the country level. Overall, our research shows that reform implementation is moving the needle on the quality of the collective offer. In particular, with regard to its institutional element, we observed that the reform has fostered change in how UN country teams work together that is in line with what the 2030 Agenda demands. Institutional changes allow for increased cross-organisational and cross-sectoral coordination, which could potentially lead to increased policy coherence. But while we see substantial progress, it remains incomplete, fragile and subject to structural limitations. A more critical picture emerges with regard to change in the substantive component of the collective offer in the areas of SDG integration, cross-border work and normative approaches. While there were positive examples, we found little evidence of a systematic repositioning in these areas. The adjustment of the UNDS to the 2030 Agenda does not (yet) meet the expectations derived from the UN’s own reform ambition.

New rules, same practice? Analysing UN Development System reform effects at the country level

With its unique multilateral assets, the United Nations Development System (UNDS) should be playing a key role in assisting governments and other stakeholders with their implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. But this requires change. Despite improvements in recent decades, too often the UNDS has continued to act as a loose assemblage of competing entities, undermining its effective support for Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) implementation. It is against that backdrop that the UNDS has been undergoing an extensive reform – that was decided on in 2018 and has been implemented since 2019 – to provide more coherent, integrated support in line with requirements of the 2030 Agenda to United Nations (UN) programme countries. What effects have the reforms yielded at the country level? This paper presents the main findings, conclusions and recommendations from our research on UNDS reform implementation. It does so with a focus on reform-induced changes towards what we call a strengthened, collective offer at the country level. Overall, our research shows that reform implementation is moving the needle on the quality of the collective offer. In particular, with regard to its institutional element, we observed that the reform has fostered change in how UN country teams work together that is in line with what the 2030 Agenda demands. Institutional changes allow for increased cross-organisational and cross-sectoral coordination, which could potentially lead to increased policy coherence. But while we see substantial progress, it remains incomplete, fragile and subject to structural limitations. A more critical picture emerges with regard to change in the substantive component of the collective offer in the areas of SDG integration, cross-border work and normative approaches. While there were positive examples, we found little evidence of a systematic repositioning in these areas. The adjustment of the UNDS to the 2030 Agenda does not (yet) meet the expectations derived from the UN’s own reform ambition.

New rules, same practice? Analysing UN Development System reform effects at the country level

With its unique multilateral assets, the United Nations Development System (UNDS) should be playing a key role in assisting governments and other stakeholders with their implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. But this requires change. Despite improvements in recent decades, too often the UNDS has continued to act as a loose assemblage of competing entities, undermining its effective support for Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) implementation. It is against that backdrop that the UNDS has been undergoing an extensive reform – that was decided on in 2018 and has been implemented since 2019 – to provide more coherent, integrated support in line with requirements of the 2030 Agenda to United Nations (UN) programme countries. What effects have the reforms yielded at the country level? This paper presents the main findings, conclusions and recommendations from our research on UNDS reform implementation. It does so with a focus on reform-induced changes towards what we call a strengthened, collective offer at the country level. Overall, our research shows that reform implementation is moving the needle on the quality of the collective offer. In particular, with regard to its institutional element, we observed that the reform has fostered change in how UN country teams work together that is in line with what the 2030 Agenda demands. Institutional changes allow for increased cross-organisational and cross-sectoral coordination, which could potentially lead to increased policy coherence. But while we see substantial progress, it remains incomplete, fragile and subject to structural limitations. A more critical picture emerges with regard to change in the substantive component of the collective offer in the areas of SDG integration, cross-border work and normative approaches. While there were positive examples, we found little evidence of a systematic repositioning in these areas. The adjustment of the UNDS to the 2030 Agenda does not (yet) meet the expectations derived from the UN’s own reform ambition.

The Eastern Mediterranean as a Focus for the EU’s Energy Transition

SWP - Thu, 10/02/2022 - 01:00

The EU and Germany have set themselves ambitious climate and energy policy targets. Taking into account the need to reduce emissions from all sectors of the economy, they now have a different perspective on the energy situation in the Eastern Mediterranean than a few years ago. Offshore natural gas imports from the Eastern Mediterranean are losing relevance in favour of the region’s prospects for contributing to the EU’s emerging green energy economy. In view of Europe’s rising demand for renewable electricity, transcontinental electricity interconnections between the European, African and Middle Eastern power grids could become a new normal via the Eastern Mediterranean. There is also regional potential for playing a role in the EU’s hydrogen strategy. Advancing the energy transition in the East Mediterranean brings new economic perspectives and incentives for political cooperation both on regional and inter­national levels. Conflicts and tensions over the delimitation of maritime boundaries between the two communities in Cyprus and between Greece and Turkey would lose a great deal of their politically explosive nature. However, mistrust and deep rooted enmities could still obstruct constructive and inclusive approaches towards the ex­pansion of renewable energies and electricity interconnection all over the Eastern Mediterranean.

To regulate or not to regulate? Jordan’s approach to digital ride-hailing platform Careem

Digitalization is a disruptive megatrend which cannot be stopped but needs to be steered and used. Just how regulators should respond to it is less clear. For instance, Jordanian authorities faced the boom of the ride-hailing platform Careem, now an Uber subsidiary, in Jordan’s capital Amman. They were forced to choose between licensing Careem, and thus allowing flexible yet informal job creation, or protecting the entrenched taxi businesses. Against the backdrop of Jordan’s dire economic situation and rampant unemployment figures, regulators decided for a middle way, licensing ride-hailing platforms, yet limiting their growth and confining them to an upmarket line of business. As this paper demonstrates, this approach created new fractions and insider-outsider dynamics on the labour market.
The paper draws on interviews with Careem and taxi drivers, as well as expert interviews with staff and customers in 2019 to show (i) how Careem drivers’ employment situation allowed for comparatively high income opportunities but exposed them to considerable financial risks also due to obligatory car ownership, and (ii) how regulators’ differentiated approach created fairer competition but also led to labour market segmentation by distorting wage levels and incentives for the highly-skilled, who also experience de-skilling while working outside their professional field. Vulnerabilities and precarious working conditions were further exposed during the Covid-19 lockdowns.

To regulate or not to regulate? Jordan’s approach to digital ride-hailing platform Careem

Digitalization is a disruptive megatrend which cannot be stopped but needs to be steered and used. Just how regulators should respond to it is less clear. For instance, Jordanian authorities faced the boom of the ride-hailing platform Careem, now an Uber subsidiary, in Jordan’s capital Amman. They were forced to choose between licensing Careem, and thus allowing flexible yet informal job creation, or protecting the entrenched taxi businesses. Against the backdrop of Jordan’s dire economic situation and rampant unemployment figures, regulators decided for a middle way, licensing ride-hailing platforms, yet limiting their growth and confining them to an upmarket line of business. As this paper demonstrates, this approach created new fractions and insider-outsider dynamics on the labour market.
The paper draws on interviews with Careem and taxi drivers, as well as expert interviews with staff and customers in 2019 to show (i) how Careem drivers’ employment situation allowed for comparatively high income opportunities but exposed them to considerable financial risks also due to obligatory car ownership, and (ii) how regulators’ differentiated approach created fairer competition but also led to labour market segmentation by distorting wage levels and incentives for the highly-skilled, who also experience de-skilling while working outside their professional field. Vulnerabilities and precarious working conditions were further exposed during the Covid-19 lockdowns.

To regulate or not to regulate? Jordan’s approach to digital ride-hailing platform Careem

Digitalization is a disruptive megatrend which cannot be stopped but needs to be steered and used. Just how regulators should respond to it is less clear. For instance, Jordanian authorities faced the boom of the ride-hailing platform Careem, now an Uber subsidiary, in Jordan’s capital Amman. They were forced to choose between licensing Careem, and thus allowing flexible yet informal job creation, or protecting the entrenched taxi businesses. Against the backdrop of Jordan’s dire economic situation and rampant unemployment figures, regulators decided for a middle way, licensing ride-hailing platforms, yet limiting their growth and confining them to an upmarket line of business. As this paper demonstrates, this approach created new fractions and insider-outsider dynamics on the labour market.
The paper draws on interviews with Careem and taxi drivers, as well as expert interviews with staff and customers in 2019 to show (i) how Careem drivers’ employment situation allowed for comparatively high income opportunities but exposed them to considerable financial risks also due to obligatory car ownership, and (ii) how regulators’ differentiated approach created fairer competition but also led to labour market segmentation by distorting wage levels and incentives for the highly-skilled, who also experience de-skilling while working outside their professional field. Vulnerabilities and precarious working conditions were further exposed during the Covid-19 lockdowns.

Making EU-Turkey Cooperation on Migration Sustainable

SWP - Wed, 09/02/2022 - 01:00

Managing irregular migration is a focal point of EU-Turkey relations today. European perspectives on this issue, for the most part, are split into two camps: a “caring” one, which concentrates on the well-being of refugees, and a “concerned” one, which focusses on the external border security of the European Union (EU) and the anxieties of EU citizens. Widely overlooked in the European discussions is the mounting social and political discontent in Turkey, which is hosting the largest refugee population worldwide while facing a serious economic crisis alongside a severe governance dead­lock. To bear fruits in the long run, any EU-Turkey migration cooperation should account for this growing discontent. After all, neither the advancement of the rights of refugees in Turkey nor reliable security cooperation is possible without accord by the Turkish political class and society. To this end, the EU should signal to Turkey its inten­tion to resettle more refugees and support local integration efforts more proactively.

Die Zukunft der internationalen Mobilität

SWP - Wed, 09/02/2022 - 01:00

Die Covid‑19-Pandemie hat den internationalen Reiseverkehr stark reduziert. Die wirt­schaftlichen, gesellschaftlichen und menschlichen Folgen der Grenzschließungen und Reisebeschränkungen lassen sich noch nicht vollständig abschätzen, sind aber gewaltig. Die Gräben zwischen Staaten des Globalen Nordens, die Reisen kontrollieren und unregulierte Mobilität unterbinden wollen, und des Globalen Südens, die mehr legale Mobilität für ihre Bürgerinnen und Bürger einfordern, werden tiefer. Reisefreiheit ist ein begehrtes Gut, zu dem alle Zugang haben sollten, sowie Gegenstand politischer Verhandlungen. Unilaterale Bestimmungen sollten durch internatio­nale Vereinbarungen, bei dem sich Staaten auf gemeinsame Regeln und Verfahren für ein Vertrauenssystem einigen, ergänzt oder aufgehoben werden. Derweil sollten die Staaten ihre Visaverfahren modernisieren und digitale Identifikationssysteme aufbauen, die Vertrauen schaffen. Das gilt auch für Deutschland, zumal die Regierungskoalition beschlossen hat, die Visavergabe zu beschleunigen.

The opportunities and challenges of Industry 4.0 for industrial development: a case study of Morocco’s automotive and garment sectors

The development and application of advanced manufacturing technologies (known as Industry 4.0) have been enabled by the fast-paced process of digital transformation. These transformations are expected to have major implications on the reorganisation of global value chains as well as on labour markets. For late-industrialising countries, Industry 4.0 brings both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, it opens opportunities in terms of improving competitiveness, learning and export markets. On the other hand, however, it may devalue the traditional competitive advantage based on low labour costs, creating difficult-to-tackle challenges on labour markets related to unemployment and new demands for reskilling and upskilling. This paper explores these aspects through the lens of one country, Morocco, and two very different sectors: automotive and apparel. Morocco is a lower-middle-income country that has capitalised on its proximity to Europe and succeeded in developing a dynamic export-oriented automotive industry. The garment sector, which is critical for employment, has been generally neglected by the industrial development strategies. However, Industry 4.0 and its implications on global value chains are likely to affect both sectors, although in different ways. Our analysis clearly shows that interventions must be tailored to the different degrees of technological readiness. The automotive sector is driven more by the needs of major original equipment manufacturers. Therefore, industrial policy should focus on setting the framework conditions, enabling upgrading by investing in research and development, and shifting incentives towards facilitating local suppliers to better integrate with higher-tier suppliers. In the garment sector, policy interventions need to be more comprehensive, from developing a long-term vision to building awareness on technological upgrading and new business models enabled by digitalisation and automation. Moreover, there is extensive scope for industrial policy to contribute to building basic technological and knowledge capabilities all along the garment supply chain and to attracting investment.

The opportunities and challenges of Industry 4.0 for industrial development: a case study of Morocco’s automotive and garment sectors

The development and application of advanced manufacturing technologies (known as Industry 4.0) have been enabled by the fast-paced process of digital transformation. These transformations are expected to have major implications on the reorganisation of global value chains as well as on labour markets. For late-industrialising countries, Industry 4.0 brings both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, it opens opportunities in terms of improving competitiveness, learning and export markets. On the other hand, however, it may devalue the traditional competitive advantage based on low labour costs, creating difficult-to-tackle challenges on labour markets related to unemployment and new demands for reskilling and upskilling. This paper explores these aspects through the lens of one country, Morocco, and two very different sectors: automotive and apparel. Morocco is a lower-middle-income country that has capitalised on its proximity to Europe and succeeded in developing a dynamic export-oriented automotive industry. The garment sector, which is critical for employment, has been generally neglected by the industrial development strategies. However, Industry 4.0 and its implications on global value chains are likely to affect both sectors, although in different ways. Our analysis clearly shows that interventions must be tailored to the different degrees of technological readiness. The automotive sector is driven more by the needs of major original equipment manufacturers. Therefore, industrial policy should focus on setting the framework conditions, enabling upgrading by investing in research and development, and shifting incentives towards facilitating local suppliers to better integrate with higher-tier suppliers. In the garment sector, policy interventions need to be more comprehensive, from developing a long-term vision to building awareness on technological upgrading and new business models enabled by digitalisation and automation. Moreover, there is extensive scope for industrial policy to contribute to building basic technological and knowledge capabilities all along the garment supply chain and to attracting investment.

The opportunities and challenges of Industry 4.0 for industrial development: a case study of Morocco’s automotive and garment sectors

The development and application of advanced manufacturing technologies (known as Industry 4.0) have been enabled by the fast-paced process of digital transformation. These transformations are expected to have major implications on the reorganisation of global value chains as well as on labour markets. For late-industrialising countries, Industry 4.0 brings both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, it opens opportunities in terms of improving competitiveness, learning and export markets. On the other hand, however, it may devalue the traditional competitive advantage based on low labour costs, creating difficult-to-tackle challenges on labour markets related to unemployment and new demands for reskilling and upskilling. This paper explores these aspects through the lens of one country, Morocco, and two very different sectors: automotive and apparel. Morocco is a lower-middle-income country that has capitalised on its proximity to Europe and succeeded in developing a dynamic export-oriented automotive industry. The garment sector, which is critical for employment, has been generally neglected by the industrial development strategies. However, Industry 4.0 and its implications on global value chains are likely to affect both sectors, although in different ways. Our analysis clearly shows that interventions must be tailored to the different degrees of technological readiness. The automotive sector is driven more by the needs of major original equipment manufacturers. Therefore, industrial policy should focus on setting the framework conditions, enabling upgrading by investing in research and development, and shifting incentives towards facilitating local suppliers to better integrate with higher-tier suppliers. In the garment sector, policy interventions need to be more comprehensive, from developing a long-term vision to building awareness on technological upgrading and new business models enabled by digitalisation and automation. Moreover, there is extensive scope for industrial policy to contribute to building basic technological and knowledge capabilities all along the garment supply chain and to attracting investment.

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