SWP

The Turkish government’s declaration of 2025 as the “Year of the Family” reflects an increasingly authoritarian approach to managing demographic decline amid conditions of economic strain. Falling fertility rates are framed as a strategic challenge to national resilience, giving rise to a policy agenda that positions the family as the cornerstone of demographic recovery. At the same time, anti-gender politics has moved beyond ideological rhetoric towards a broader governance strategy linking demographic management, fiscal constraints, and authoritarian consolidation. For Germany and the European Union (EU), understanding these developments is essential for engaging Turkey on democratic governance, social policy, and gender equality.

Ahmed al-Scharaa ist Islamist, will aber keine Theokratie, sagt die Wissenschaftlerin Muriel Asseburg. Die Lage für die Kurden habe sich durch das Abkommen vom 30. Januar gebessert. Vor Abschiebungen nach Syrien warnt sie.

As Iran’s Houthi allies enter the conflict, Iran has threatened to disrupt shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait – a strategic waterway linking the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal – with the help of its Houthi allies in Yemen. While disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz primarily affect Asia, blocking access to the Gulf of Aden could affect European energy supplies and imports from Asia.

Die Bilanz von vier Wochen Krieg fällt für die iranische Bevölkerung verheerend aus, sagt die Iran-Expertin Azadeh Zamirirad im Interview. Was bedeutet das für den Wunsch nach einem Regimewechsel und für die Opposition?

Seit Russland 2022 seinen vollumfänglichen Aggressionskrieg gegen die Ukraine begonnen hat, verfolgt die EU ihre Erweiterungspolitik unter geopolitischen Vorzeichen. Wie es bei der Europäischen Kommission und bei Kandidatenstaaten inzwischen heißt, könnte die EU ab 2028 neue Mitglieder aufnehmen; die Ukraine fordert sogar, 2027 beizutreten. Doch hohe Hürden stehen der Erweiterung im Weg. In der EU stagniert der Reformprozess, der ihre Handlungsfähigkeit verbessern und sie für eine Mitgliederzahl von 30 oder mehr fit machen soll. Beitrittsreife der Bewerber und Absorptionskraft der Union sind aber Schlüsselkriterien, die die deutsche Europa-Politik traditionell hochhält. In der EU wird nun intensiv über schrittweise Integra­tion, neue Schnellspuren und zusätzliche Sicherheitsklauseln debattiert, um den Ziel­konflikt zwischen geopolitischer Dringlichkeit und integrationspolitischer Solidität zu minimieren. Gegenüber den Staaten des Westbalkans sollte die EU am erprobten Beitrittsprozess festhalten. Im Fall der Ukraine ist die Lage so akut, dass es die poli­tische Verpflichtung, das Land aufzunehmen, zu bekräftigen gilt. Als Vorstufe zur Mitgliedschaft sollte die EU Kyjiw eine Beitrittsassoziierung neuen Typs anbieten, die auch eine Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspartnerschaft umfasst.

The Pax Americana, which guaranteed the security of Germany and Europe after the Second World War, is coming to an end. Europe can no longer rely on its alliance and partnership with the United States. Even before Donald Trump’s second presidency, Europe was seeking to reduce its dependency on Washington for peace, democracy and prosperity. This cannot be achieved overnight, and will require a significant increase in material resources and strategic thinking over the next five to ten years. The fourteen contributions to this SWP Research Paper show how differ­ent the starting conditions for developing transition strategies are, depending on the policy area and challenges. Europe needs to consider all the options: with, without or even against Washington. The analyses of Europe’s agency and the scope for European policy towards Russia, the Middle East and China are very wide-ranging. Trump’s logic of quick deal-making and unilateralism under the banner of “MAGA” often collides fundamentally with the EU’s multilateral foreign and security policy, which is bound by international law, and its commitment to sus­tainable peace. The keywords for the urgent reorganisation of security in Europe are: Europeanisation of NATO, strengthening Europe’s own military capa­bilities, new leadership constellations for security policy in Europe, and resilient governance in technology and cybersecurity. Even at this geopolitical turning-point (“Zeitenwende”), the EU should continue to develop its soft power. When it comes to the crucial questions of global governance – from UN and international law to trade, climate and energy policy – Europe must find new partnerships and, if necessary, new institutional solutions without and against the United States.

The parliamentary elections held in Bangladesh on 12 February 2026 marked a turn­ing point in the country’s recent history. In August 2024, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who had served for a total of 20 years, with one interruption, was removed from office. An interim government led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus subsequently took power. Following two years of political uncertainty, it suc­ceeded in organising elections that were procedurally sound. Bangladesh’s political system has thus demonstrated a considerable degree of institutional resilience. At the same time, the election outcome raises new questions regarding the future of democratic pluralism in the country. The decisive election victory of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) means that one of the country’s two historic political family dynasties will remain at the helm of government. The Muslim fundamentalist camp gained vote share, which could negatively impact the role of women in society as well as complicate Bangladesh’s renewed rapprochement with neighbouring India.

Laura von Daniels analysiert Trumps Iran-Strategie, die von taktischen Anpassungen und innenpolitischem Druck geprägt ist.