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Was können Verhandlungen über Biodiversität, Land und Klima über den Wandel der globalen Umweltpolitik zeigen? Eindrücke aus Nairobi, Ulaanbaatar, Beejing and Shanghai.
Bonn, 02.11.2026. Vom 29. bis 30. Oktober veranstaltete die Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) in Genf ihren 10. „Aid for Trade“ (AfT) Global Review. Die alle zwei Jahre stattfindende Veranstaltung ist der wichtigste WTO-Dialog, um die Fortschritte der Initiative zu bewerten und ihre künftige Ausrichtung zu gestalten. 20 Jahre nach dem Start von AfT bot das Jubiläum Gelegenheit, die bisherigen Erfolge zu würdigen und über die Rolle der Initiative in einer zunehmend fragmentierten und volatilen Weltwirtschaft zu reflektieren.
AfT beruht auf einer einfachen Idee. Länder mit hohen Handelskosten können nicht in vollem Maße vom Zugang zu internationalen Märkten profitieren. Umfang und Ausrichtung der Initiative sind dabei zentral. AfT macht etwa ein Fünftel der öffentlichen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (ODA) aus. Laut WTO fließen rund 98 % aller Zusagen in die Unterstützung wirtschaftlicher Infrastruktur und den Aufbau von Produktionskapazitäten und nur ein kleiner Teil in den Kapazitätsaufbau für die Umsetzung handelspolitischer oder regulatorischer Maßnahmen. AfT ist somit weit mehr als ein eng gefasstes handelspolitisches Instrument, sondern hilft Ländern, effektiver am Welthandel teilzunehmen und ihre wirtschaftliche Entwicklung voranzutreiben.
Eine Debatte im WandelDiese Logik stößt auf eine neue politische Realität. Fiskalpolitischer Druck in den Geberländern, die zunehmende Politisierung des Handels und ideologische Angriffe auf die Entwicklungszusammenarbeit – die entsprechende öffentliche Skepsis häufig überzeichnen – haben die Debatte über Entwicklungshilfe verändert. Als Reaktion kürzten Regierungen Entwicklungsbudgets und richten den Einsatz verbleibender Mittel expliziter an nationalen Interessen aus, etwa mit Verweis auf Beschäftigungs- und Exportchancen für inländische Unternehmen.
Es ist legitim darauf zu verweisen, dass auch Geberländer von der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit profitieren sollten. Problematisch wird es, wenn diese Vorteile nicht mehr eine Folge, sondern das Hauptziel sind. Das gilt insbesondere für AfT, denn die Erkenntnisse über die ökonomische und statistische Bedeutung der Exportgewinne für die Geberländer sind uneinheitlich.
Neuere Forschung zur ODA insgesamt hat die öffentliche Aufmerksamkeit erregt, weil sie substantielle positive Effekte auf Exporte und Beschäftigung in den Geberländern, darunter Deutschland, aufzeigen. Entscheidend ist, dass diese Effekte offenbar über langfristige, indirekte Kanäle entstehen und nicht zwingend mit direkter Handelsförderung verbunden sind. Diese Erkenntnisse sind auch für AfT von Bedeutung: Um den Nutzen für Geberländer zu beurteilen, muss der Blick über unmittelbare Verträge und Exportaufträge hinausgehen und berücksichtigen, in welchem Maße der Nutzen von AfT in den langfristigen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen liegt.
Es gibt gute Gründe, diese Perspektive auf AfT einzunehmen. Forschungsergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass die Unterstützung von Entwicklungsländern bei der Senkung von Handelskosten, der Modernisierung von Zollverfahren, der Stärkung von Produktionskapazitäten, der Einbindung in globale Wertschöpfungsketten und der Erfüllung internationaler Standards ihre Handelsleistung deutlich verbessern kann – insbesondere in den am wenigsten entwickelten Ländern.
Die potenziellen Vorteile gehen weit über die gesteigerte Handelskapazität der Empfängerländer hinaus. Wer daher nur auf die Exportbilanzen der Geberländer blickt, verliert das Große und Ganze aus den Augen. Länder, die im internationalen Handel erfolgreicher werden, können sich zu widerstandsfähigeren und verlässlicheren Partnern entwickeln. Für stark vom internationalen Handel abhängige Volkswirtschaften wie Deutschland kann das bereits ein erheblicher Nutzen sein. Jüngste Forschung zeigt zudem, dass Geberländer profitieren, indem sie Zugang zu kritischen Rohstoffen erhalten, nachhaltigere Handelspartnerschaften aufbauen und stärkere Bündnisse für ein regelbasiertes Handelssystem schmieden. Solche Effekte lassen sich anhand reiner Exportstatistiken kaum erfassen, könnten aber weitreichender sein.
AusblickDie Debatte sollte sich daher von der Frage „Was bekommen wir dafür zurück?“ hin zu der strategischeren Frage bewegen: „Welche Partnerschaften wollen wir aufbauen?“ Dieser Perspektivwechsel ist für Politik und Forschung bedeutend. Künftige Studien sollten über direkte Auswirkungen hinausgehen und die Mechanismen untersuchen, durch die AfT sowohl Geber- als auch Empfängerländern zugutekommt. Ein Verständnis dieser Wirkungszusammenhänge könnte dazu beitragen, die strategische Ausrichtung von AfT gezielter zu gestalten.
Dies ist besonders relevant in einem Handelsumfeld, das zunehmend von Industriepolitik, wirtschaftlicher Unsicherheit, Lieferkettenrisiken, Digitalisierung und künstlicher Intelligenz, Klimawandel und geopolitischen Entwicklungen geprägt ist. Um wirksam zu bleiben, muss AfT noch stärker als umfassender Ansatz ausgerichtet werden. Der diesjährige Global Review steht für ein breiteres, stärker zukunftsorientiertes Verständnis von Handelsintegration, bei dem neben dem traditionellen Aufbau von Handelskapazitäten auch Resilienz, Inklusion, Investitionen und öffentlich-private Partnerschaften im Fokus stehen.
Diese breitere Perspektive könnte dazu beitragen, die Ziele von AfT enger mit den wirtschaftlichen Gegebenheiten und den Anpassungsbedarf der heutigen Welt in Einklang zu bringen. Gut konzipiert, ist die Initiative – mit ihrem expliziten Auftrag, Entwicklung in einer vernetzten Welt zu fördern – ein idealer Kandidat für Partnerschaften auf Augenhöhe. 20 Jahre nach dem Start der Initiative könnte dies eine der wichtigsten Zukunftsperspektiven für AfT sein.
Bonn, 02.11.2026. Vom 29. bis 30. Oktober veranstaltete die Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) in Genf ihren 10. „Aid for Trade“ (AfT) Global Review. Die alle zwei Jahre stattfindende Veranstaltung ist der wichtigste WTO-Dialog, um die Fortschritte der Initiative zu bewerten und ihre künftige Ausrichtung zu gestalten. 20 Jahre nach dem Start von AfT bot das Jubiläum Gelegenheit, die bisherigen Erfolge zu würdigen und über die Rolle der Initiative in einer zunehmend fragmentierten und volatilen Weltwirtschaft zu reflektieren.
AfT beruht auf einer einfachen Idee. Länder mit hohen Handelskosten können nicht in vollem Maße vom Zugang zu internationalen Märkten profitieren. Umfang und Ausrichtung der Initiative sind dabei zentral. AfT macht etwa ein Fünftel der öffentlichen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (ODA) aus. Laut WTO fließen rund 98 % aller Zusagen in die Unterstützung wirtschaftlicher Infrastruktur und den Aufbau von Produktionskapazitäten und nur ein kleiner Teil in den Kapazitätsaufbau für die Umsetzung handelspolitischer oder regulatorischer Maßnahmen. AfT ist somit weit mehr als ein eng gefasstes handelspolitisches Instrument, sondern hilft Ländern, effektiver am Welthandel teilzunehmen und ihre wirtschaftliche Entwicklung voranzutreiben.
Eine Debatte im WandelDiese Logik stößt auf eine neue politische Realität. Fiskalpolitischer Druck in den Geberländern, die zunehmende Politisierung des Handels und ideologische Angriffe auf die Entwicklungszusammenarbeit – die entsprechende öffentliche Skepsis häufig überzeichnen – haben die Debatte über Entwicklungshilfe verändert. Als Reaktion kürzten Regierungen Entwicklungsbudgets und richten den Einsatz verbleibender Mittel expliziter an nationalen Interessen aus, etwa mit Verweis auf Beschäftigungs- und Exportchancen für inländische Unternehmen.
Es ist legitim darauf zu verweisen, dass auch Geberländer von der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit profitieren sollten. Problematisch wird es, wenn diese Vorteile nicht mehr eine Folge, sondern das Hauptziel sind. Das gilt insbesondere für AfT, denn die Erkenntnisse über die ökonomische und statistische Bedeutung der Exportgewinne für die Geberländer sind uneinheitlich.
Neuere Forschung zur ODA insgesamt hat die öffentliche Aufmerksamkeit erregt, weil sie substantielle positive Effekte auf Exporte und Beschäftigung in den Geberländern, darunter Deutschland, aufzeigen. Entscheidend ist, dass diese Effekte offenbar über langfristige, indirekte Kanäle entstehen und nicht zwingend mit direkter Handelsförderung verbunden sind. Diese Erkenntnisse sind auch für AfT von Bedeutung: Um den Nutzen für Geberländer zu beurteilen, muss der Blick über unmittelbare Verträge und Exportaufträge hinausgehen und berücksichtigen, in welchem Maße der Nutzen von AfT in den langfristigen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen liegt.
Es gibt gute Gründe, diese Perspektive auf AfT einzunehmen. Forschungsergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass die Unterstützung von Entwicklungsländern bei der Senkung von Handelskosten, der Modernisierung von Zollverfahren, der Stärkung von Produktionskapazitäten, der Einbindung in globale Wertschöpfungsketten und der Erfüllung internationaler Standards ihre Handelsleistung deutlich verbessern kann – insbesondere in den am wenigsten entwickelten Ländern.
Die potenziellen Vorteile gehen weit über die gesteigerte Handelskapazität der Empfängerländer hinaus. Wer daher nur auf die Exportbilanzen der Geberländer blickt, verliert das Große und Ganze aus den Augen. Länder, die im internationalen Handel erfolgreicher werden, können sich zu widerstandsfähigeren und verlässlicheren Partnern entwickeln. Für stark vom internationalen Handel abhängige Volkswirtschaften wie Deutschland kann das bereits ein erheblicher Nutzen sein. Jüngste Forschung zeigt zudem, dass Geberländer profitieren, indem sie Zugang zu kritischen Rohstoffen erhalten, nachhaltigere Handelspartnerschaften aufbauen und stärkere Bündnisse für ein regelbasiertes Handelssystem schmieden. Solche Effekte lassen sich anhand reiner Exportstatistiken kaum erfassen, könnten aber weitreichender sein.
AusblickDie Debatte sollte sich daher von der Frage „Was bekommen wir dafür zurück?“ hin zu der strategischeren Frage bewegen: „Welche Partnerschaften wollen wir aufbauen?“ Dieser Perspektivwechsel ist für Politik und Forschung bedeutend. Künftige Studien sollten über direkte Auswirkungen hinausgehen und die Mechanismen untersuchen, durch die AfT sowohl Geber- als auch Empfängerländern zugutekommt. Ein Verständnis dieser Wirkungszusammenhänge könnte dazu beitragen, die strategische Ausrichtung von AfT gezielter zu gestalten.
Dies ist besonders relevant in einem Handelsumfeld, das zunehmend von Industriepolitik, wirtschaftlicher Unsicherheit, Lieferkettenrisiken, Digitalisierung und künstlicher Intelligenz, Klimawandel und geopolitischen Entwicklungen geprägt ist. Um wirksam zu bleiben, muss AfT noch stärker als umfassender Ansatz ausgerichtet werden. Der diesjährige Global Review steht für ein breiteres, stärker zukunftsorientiertes Verständnis von Handelsintegration, bei dem neben dem traditionellen Aufbau von Handelskapazitäten auch Resilienz, Inklusion, Investitionen und öffentlich-private Partnerschaften im Fokus stehen.
Diese breitere Perspektive könnte dazu beitragen, die Ziele von AfT enger mit den wirtschaftlichen Gegebenheiten und den Anpassungsbedarf der heutigen Welt in Einklang zu bringen. Gut konzipiert, ist die Initiative – mit ihrem expliziten Auftrag, Entwicklung in einer vernetzten Welt zu fördern – ein idealer Kandidat für Partnerschaften auf Augenhöhe. 20 Jahre nach dem Start der Initiative könnte dies eine der wichtigsten Zukunftsperspektiven für AfT sein.
Just Transitions have emerged as a central pillar of global climate policy, particularly following their formal inclusion in the Paris Agreement in 2015. Their rapid adoption at both national and international levels is notable given persistent shortcomings in global climate and sustainable development governance. However, Just Transition initiatives remain fragmented, conceptually contested, and predominantly focused on energy, and their governance has received comparatively little academic attention. At the same time, policy coherence, a governance principle concerned with maximising synergies and minimising trade-offs and extensively studied in the context of the 2030 Agenda, is widely invoked in policy discourse as essential for Just Transitions, yet its role in Just Transition governance has received little systematic attention in the literature. This dissertation therefore asks: to what extent can policy coherence enable the governance of Just Transitions, and under which conditions? Just Transitions here are understood as transitions that advance climate-neutral, sustainable futures in ways that are substantively just, with substantive justice defined as the expansion of opportunity freedoms, the reduction of inequalities across all dimensions, and the fulfilment of the 2030 Agenda’s promise to ‘leave no one behind.’ Part I (Chapters 2–3) examines the relationships between policy coherence, Just Transition, goal attainment, and inequality reduction. Drawing on survey data from 131 COP28 delegates (Chapter 2) and empirical analysis of 40 sustainable development policy processes across multiple countries (Chapter 3), the findings indicate that policy coherence is widely perceived as integral to Just Transitions and is strongly associated with multidimensional, cross-sectoral approaches that extend beyond energy. Empirical analysis further shows that higher coherence is linked to greater policy effectiveness in achieving multiple objectives. However, coherence alone does not reliably reduce inequalities and, in some cases, can exacerbate them. Part II (Chapters 4–6) examines the temporal, discursive, and political conditions under which policy coherence can enable the governance of Just Transitions. Drawing on policy document analysis and semi-structured interviews, these conditions are analysed through an in-depth case study of Germany’s energy transition, the Energiewende, a high-stakes transition context. Findings demonstrate that governing Just Transitions through policy coherence requires balancing short-, medium-, and long-term objectives, as temporal dynamics alter policy interactions and reveal trade-offs and synergies that evolve over time (Chapter 4). Moreover, policy coherence is socially and discursively constructed, with actors’ perceptions and interpretations strongly shaping whether policies and their implementation are experienced as coherent or incoherent (Chapter 5). Political inequalities in decision-making around the German coal phase-out and onshore wind phase-in further constrain coherence and can lead to slower climate mitigation outcomes (Chapter 6). Together, the findings indicate that while policy coherence may appear to be a necessary principle for the governance of Just Transitions, it is not sufficient. While widely endorsed, its ability to enable the governance of Just Transitions is context-dependent and contingent on its implications for social justice. In addition, policy coherence should not be seen as a fixed end-state, but as a dynamic and imperfect governance principle that is deeply shaped by politics and discourse.
Just Transitions have emerged as a central pillar of global climate policy, particularly following their formal inclusion in the Paris Agreement in 2015. Their rapid adoption at both national and international levels is notable given persistent shortcomings in global climate and sustainable development governance. However, Just Transition initiatives remain fragmented, conceptually contested, and predominantly focused on energy, and their governance has received comparatively little academic attention. At the same time, policy coherence, a governance principle concerned with maximising synergies and minimising trade-offs and extensively studied in the context of the 2030 Agenda, is widely invoked in policy discourse as essential for Just Transitions, yet its role in Just Transition governance has received little systematic attention in the literature. This dissertation therefore asks: to what extent can policy coherence enable the governance of Just Transitions, and under which conditions? Just Transitions here are understood as transitions that advance climate-neutral, sustainable futures in ways that are substantively just, with substantive justice defined as the expansion of opportunity freedoms, the reduction of inequalities across all dimensions, and the fulfilment of the 2030 Agenda’s promise to ‘leave no one behind.’ Part I (Chapters 2–3) examines the relationships between policy coherence, Just Transition, goal attainment, and inequality reduction. Drawing on survey data from 131 COP28 delegates (Chapter 2) and empirical analysis of 40 sustainable development policy processes across multiple countries (Chapter 3), the findings indicate that policy coherence is widely perceived as integral to Just Transitions and is strongly associated with multidimensional, cross-sectoral approaches that extend beyond energy. Empirical analysis further shows that higher coherence is linked to greater policy effectiveness in achieving multiple objectives. However, coherence alone does not reliably reduce inequalities and, in some cases, can exacerbate them. Part II (Chapters 4–6) examines the temporal, discursive, and political conditions under which policy coherence can enable the governance of Just Transitions. Drawing on policy document analysis and semi-structured interviews, these conditions are analysed through an in-depth case study of Germany’s energy transition, the Energiewende, a high-stakes transition context. Findings demonstrate that governing Just Transitions through policy coherence requires balancing short-, medium-, and long-term objectives, as temporal dynamics alter policy interactions and reveal trade-offs and synergies that evolve over time (Chapter 4). Moreover, policy coherence is socially and discursively constructed, with actors’ perceptions and interpretations strongly shaping whether policies and their implementation are experienced as coherent or incoherent (Chapter 5). Political inequalities in decision-making around the German coal phase-out and onshore wind phase-in further constrain coherence and can lead to slower climate mitigation outcomes (Chapter 6). Together, the findings indicate that while policy coherence may appear to be a necessary principle for the governance of Just Transitions, it is not sufficient. While widely endorsed, its ability to enable the governance of Just Transitions is context-dependent and contingent on its implications for social justice. In addition, policy coherence should not be seen as a fixed end-state, but as a dynamic and imperfect governance principle that is deeply shaped by politics and discourse.
Following Lula da Silva’s remarkable electoral ‘remontada’, Brazil’s forests may sigh with relief. Lula’s re-election, with 51.8% of votes in the second ballot of Brazil’s presidential elections, averts a second Bolsonaro presidency that seemed to be looming after the first round of elections in early October. It would have threatened to dismantle environmental safeguards, weaken Indigenous territorial rights and accelerate the exploitation of the Amazon. Moreover, Flávio Bolsonaro’s alignment with Donald Trump offered little prospect for a continuation of Brazil’s international leadership for ambitious climate action. The threat was concrete, grounded in both the Bolsonaro family’s track record and Flávio’s personal campaign promises. Yet Brazil’s election was hardly a referendum on forests or climate policy. While forest protection attracts international attention, living costs, corruption and security dominate domestic concerns.
Planstadtprojekte werden den Ansprüchen nachhaltiger Stadtentwicklung häufig nicht gerecht, können allerdings einflussreichen Schatteninteressen dienen.
Bonn, 30. Oktober 2026. Die „Urban October“-Initiative von UN-Habitat steht in diesem Jahr unter dem Motto „Angemessener Wohnraum für alle“ und endet am Weltstädtetag (31. Oktober). Um den dringenden Bedarf an Wohnraum zu decken, erscheint der Bau von Planstädten „auf der grünen Wiese“ als attraktive Lösung. Allerdings tragen solche Projekte häufig nicht zur Bewältigung der Herausforderungen der Urbanisierung bei, dienen stattdessen aber verdeckten politischen Interessen – oft auf Kosten aktueller und zukünftiger Stadtbewohner*innen.
Im Mai 2026 bestätigten Medienberichte das Ende des Stadtvorhabens The Line. Saudi-Arabien stellte bis auf weiteres die Bauarbeiten an der 170 Kilometer langen Bandstadt bis mindestens 2030 ein. Obwohl das Projekt aufgrund seines ungewöhnlichen Ausmaßes und Designs viel internationale Aufmerksamkeit auf sich gezogen hat, ist es nur ein Beispiel für ein umfassenderes Phänomen. Weltweit verfolgen Regierungen und Investoren über 150 Planstadtprojekte, vor allem in Ländern mit niedrigem und mittlerem Einkommen. Diese Projekte basieren auf Masterplänen für bisher unbebaute Flächen. Sie beanspruchen häufig, einen Beitrag zur Lösung von Problemen wie Wohnungsnot, Verkehrsüberlastung, Umweltverschmutzung und die Anpassung an die Folgen des Klimawandels leisten zu können. Analysen deuten jedoch darauf hin, dass Planstadtprojekte diesen Versprechungen oft nicht gerecht werden, was zwei wichtige Fragen aufwirft: Warum werden Planstadtvorhaben dennoch in so großer Zahl verfolgt? Und wie sollten Entwicklungsorganisationen reagieren, wenn sie um Unterstützung für solche Projekte gebeten werden?
Die Idee, Planstädte zu errichten, ist eine Reaktion auf eine zentrale globale Herausforderung: Städtische Siedlungen wachsen in beispielloser Geschwindigkeit, insbesondere in Afrika und Asien. Zudem zeigen neue Städte wie Brasilia (Brasilien) und Abuja (Nigeria), dass solche Projekte gelingen können. In den letzten Jahren blieb jedoch eine beträchtliche Anzahl von Planstadtprojekten unvollendet, hatte mit geringer Auslastung zu kämpfen oder wurde ganz aufgegeben. Die Gründe, warum diese milliardenschweren Projekte ihre städtebaulichen Ziele oft verfehlen sind vielfältig. Fehler in der Planung, im Management und bei der Finanzierung spielen hier eine Rolle. Doch wie wir in einem neuen Policy Brief darlegen, sind Planstadtprojekte auch weiterhin attraktiv aufgrund von Schatteninteressen – versteckten politischen Absichten, die von einflussreichen Eliten verfolgt werden. Diese Interessen können zusätzlich zu oder im Gegensatz zu Zielen der Stadtentwicklung bestehen. Sofern Schatteninteressen faktisch Vorrang vor Stadtentwicklungszielen erhalten, dient dies zwar den verborgenen politischen Absichten, erhöht aber die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die offiziellen Stadtentwicklungsziele nicht erreicht werden.
Schatteninteressen umfassen unter anderem Bestrebungen, politische Macht durch die Stärkung klientelistischer Netzwerke zu festigen, etwa durch die Verteilung von Land oder die Vergabe von Aufträgen an gut vernetzte Baufirmen. Ägyptens neue Verwaltungshauptstadt ist ein Beispiel dafür. Die Zeitschrift The Economist beschreibt sie als staatliches Vorhaben, um Unternehmen mit engen Verbindungen zum Militär zu bestechen, was die ohnehin steigende Verschuldung und Inflation weiter in die Höhe treibt. Schatteninteressen können auch Bestrebungen umfassen, geopolitische Kontrolle über strategisch wichtige Gebiete durchzusetzen, wie im Fall von Forest City in Malaysia. Die Stadt war ein Versuch, im Rahmen der chinesischen „Belt and Road“-Initiative eine chinesische neokoloniale Enklave an einem strategisch wichtigen Standort zu errichten. Das Projekt wurde 2014 ins Leben gerufen und ist heute eine verlassene „Geisterstadt“. Darüber hinaus können Schatteninteressen auch dazu dienen, autoritäre Regime durch den Bau von vorgeblichen Ökostädten international zu legitimieren. Masdar City in Abu Dhabi wurde beispielsweise 2006 ins Leben gerufen, um das Emirat als weltweit führend im Bereich grüner Innovationen zu positionieren. Bis heute ist die Stadt kaum ausgelastet. Diese Beispiele zeigen, dass Planstadtprojekte eher nicht die Bedürfnisse von Stadtbewohner*innen erfüllen, wenn Regierungen sich dabei an Schatteninteressen statt an offiziellen Stadtentwicklungszielen orientieren.
Um auf die Herausforderungen der rasanten Urbanisierung zu reagieren, sind verschiedene Ansätze nötig, zu denen auch Planstädte gehören können. Doch die jüngsten Planstadtprojekte versprechen viel, weisen eine schlechte Erfolgsbilanz auf und werden oft durch Schatteninteressen beeinträchtigt. Solche Projekte bergen daher die Gefahr, erhebliche öffentliche und private Ressourcen zu vergeuden – und das in einer Zeit, in der Investitionen in städtische Infrastruktur dringend notwendig sind. Angesichts dieses Risikos sollten Entwicklungsorganisationen sorgfältig abwägen, ob sie Planstadtprojekte unterstützen. Idealerweise sollten solche Entscheidungen auf der Grundlage politökonomischer Analysen stattfinden, die auch mögliche Schatteninteressen berücksichtigen, sowie aufgrund der Analyse alternativer Stadtentwicklungsansätze. Dies ist insbesondere in autoritären Kontexten und in Ländern mit schwachen Institutionen wichtig, in denen Infrastrukturprojekte eher von Schatteninteressen vereinnahmt werden. Maßnahmen wie die schrittweise Modernisierung und Erweiterung bestehender städtischer Siedlungen sind in der Regel kosteneffizienter und kommen einem breiteren Spektrum von Stadtbewohner*innen zugute. Die Verwirklichung des Mottos „Angemessener Wohnraum für alle“ erfordert nicht zuletzt partizipativere Ansätze in Stadtplanung und -entwicklung, die ausdrücklich auch die mehr als eine Milliarde Menschen einbeziehen, die weltweit in informellen städtischen Siedlungen leben.
Emotions are widely invoked to motivate climate action, yet how different forms of emotional activation translate into costly, real-world pro-environmental behaviour (PEB) remains unclear. This study examines whether positive emotions triggered by (i) recalling past PEB and (ii) engaging with environmental social media content increase subsequent donations to an environmental NGO. We implemented incentivised 2×2 between-subjects experiments among middle-class respondents in Ghana (N = 789) and the Philippines (N = 972) between April and May 2022, comparing the individual and combined effects of these two interventions on real donation decisions, and testing the mediating role of self-reported positive emotion. In the Philippines, both recall and engagement significantly increased donation amounts, with recall showing a robust effect across model specifications and indicative evidence of a small, partial mediation via positive emotions. The combined treatment, however, did not yield an interaction effect, suggesting additive rather than synergistic impacts. In Ghana, neither intervention nor emotional responses predicted donations; instead, beliefs about donation effectiveness and sociodemographic characteristics were the main predictors of environmental donations. These cross-country differences suggest that emotional drivers of climate engagement may be culturally and contextually contingent rather than universal. By experimentally contrasting recalled and experienced emotions and linking them to incentive-compatible PEB, the study advances behavioural and communication research on climate emotions. It highlights the need for emotionally intelligent, context-sensitive climate communication strategies that are personally meaningful and are tailored to local socio-economic environments.
Farwiza Farhan speaks about saving the Leuser Ecosystem at a Global Tipping Points Conference 2026. Credit: Zofeen Ebrahim/IPS
By Zofeen Ebrahim
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 28 2026 (IPS)
Forty-year-old Farwiza Farhan’s eyes light up instantly when she talks about the Leuser Ecosystem – a national strategic area encompassing a national park, a wildlife reserve, protected forests and other land uses.
“It’s rare to have such a large landscape remain intact despite continuous encroachment by developers, which is shrinking the habitat of the tiger, the elephant, the rhino and the orangutan,” she says. At 2.7 million hectares, Leuser remains a rare stronghold for wildlife in a country where many forests have been decimated. “Leuser still stands, and the wildlife thrives there,” she says with a certain pride. “This is why the landscape is so incredibly special,” she says.
Farhan, a Sumatran forest conservator who heads Forest, Nature & Empowerment Aceh (HAkA), spoke to IPS on the sidelines of the Global Tipping Points Conference 2026, held at Sunway University, Kuala Lumpur, from October 12 to15. HAkA works to protect and restore the Leuser through conservation campaigns and meaningful community participation.
“If we don’t pay heed, we will push these animals closer to extinction,” she warned. “There are fewer than 250 tigers and maybe just 100 rhinos left.”
Corporations are shrinking wildlife habitats, says Farhan, pointing to large-scale gold mining and palm oil plantations, some spanning up to 10,000 hectares. “They’re located next to one another and compete for more space than anyone could ever,” she explained.
But wildlife is not the only thing losing space. According to Farhan, 500,000 people live within the ecosystem, and five million live outside it. Their lives are closely tied to the forest, which they use sparingly – consuming what they grow, unlike mining companies and corporations that extract resources on a large scale.
“Many concessions are located near towns and transport routes, making it easier to move commodities. But when forests are cleared, downstream communities bear the consequences, while upstream communities lose access to their land. Palm oil companies often take over land outside protected areas and push the communities living there further away,” said Farhan.
The costs of forest destruction, however, extend beyond the loss of wildlife. Women in communities that depend on the forest often bear a disproportionate burden.
“They are not scared of big multinational companies; they are truly militant in the way they respond to corporations they know will take away their land and forests. They feel the companies will slowly destroy their lives, so they might as well die fighting to stop them from bulldozing their village,” she said.
Farhan saw how women responded when disaster struck last year.
“Disasters force people to relocate, and that’s when women face immediate security concerns. In crowded camps, they may lack safe access to water and sanitation, and their privacy is often compromised. Yet they continue to shoulder the bulk of care work — looking after children and the elderly — while often losing their livelihoods and income.”
She says she has “massive respect and appreciation” for these women.
Sadly, these same women, who have a deep connection with the forest, are often excluded from policy-making forums where their voices matter most, she said.
Orangutan and infant. Credit: Anton Leddin/Wikimedia
She witnessed their knowledge and role in decision-making during Aceh’s catastrophic floods and landslides last November, triggered by torrential rains. “They understood local realities and were the first to mobilise and respond,” she pointed out.
And while many people see women huddled together as gossiping, Farhan playfully calls it “stakeholder mapping”.
“They know who’s doing what, which community members have betrayed them by taking bribes from corporations, and they know exactly what to do when that happens. Elderly women are the best: they have wisdom and respect, and they’ve seen it all before. They are the ones who hold the fort for their communities. Sometimes, an elderly woman will approach a young man engaged in illegal logging and ask, ‘Whose son are you?’ The question carries enormous weight.”
Working with communities has humbled Farhan.
“Our education taught us to speak in certain way, but not to listen. I think we need to invest more time in really listening to communities. We feel that because we are educated, we are there to educate, but in reality, the local people know and understand their problems and have the solutions.”
Spending a day alone in a village was all it took for her to realise how out of her depth she was. “Being left alone in the forest made me realise how quickly I could get lost without appropriate tools.”
Although her ancestry is Acehnese, she is uncomfortable identifying herself as indigenous because she and her family have not experienced the discrimination and lack of opportunities faced by indigenous communities.
“I can’t say that I shared those experiences directly,” she says, acknowledging that her education has given her privileges others have not had. “Identity-wise, I’m confused.”
Yet, she says, she understands their struggle and stands with them. However, she would not use that ‘Indigeneity’ card to gain access to funding and opportunities meant to expand opportunities for Indigenous peoples, as it is “unfair to the people who are actually going through the struggles and working hard to get the opportunities.”
A marine biologist by qualification, she also enrolled in a PhD programme in anthropology, which she later gave up. “I built the organisation while I was doing my PhD, but it died in the process,” she admits. “The work to protect forests was a lot more interesting,” she says with a smile.
But forests were not always her focus. By her own admission, her initial motivation was to protect the ocean because of her love for the underwater world.
Her degree in marine biology helped her understand ocean ecosystems better. She returned to the place where she had first fallen in love with the ocean, only to find it destroyed.
“In 2007, in a remote part of Aceh, Pulau Weh, I saw for the first time how El Niño had devastated an entire coral reef. I felt powerless,” she recalls. Realising how little she could do as an individual, she turned her attention to the forests. “Maybe protecting forests would be easier,” she thought.
But that was easier said than done. When she was hired to work for the government’s forest agency and the Leuser Ecosystem Management Authority, she accepted the offer without asking about the salary or her job description.
“I just wanted to work in conservation. I thought I’d be running around under the canopy of trees, going on patrol and watching wildlife. It turned out to be anything but that. I was stuck behind a desk with a computer in front!”
The job turned out to be in public relations. She was the spokesperson but rarely got the opportunity to speak.
“It was a very confusing place; I got sent to meetings to speak about forest allocations, spatial planning, environmental impact assessments…things I did not learn at university, things I was not equipped to deal with.”
Fate had other plans. All these experiences helped her understand power imbalances and conflicting interests. She also saw firsthand how people tasked with protecting forests could end up destroying them.
She stayed on until the government agency was shut down after its efforts to stop powerful interests from destroying forests met with opposition. She then joined her “stubborn and persistent” colleagues to help find HAkA.
She recalls countless half cups of coffee at cafés, bought because they could barely afford more, as they used the cafés’ Wi-Fi to brainstorm.
“We were not going to give up on protecting the Leuser ecosystem,” she said.
In 2011, Farhan and her organisation were among the environmental campaigners who challenged the government in court over its decision to grant concession to a palm oil company, in Aceh’s Rawa Tripa peat swamp forest (also in Leuser), despite a two-year nationwide moratorium on new concessions having been imposed three months earlier.
PT Kallista Alam, the company, pursued a series of appeals all the way up to the Supreme Court. In 2013, the apex court rejected the appeal and ruled in favour of the community. Yet it took until 2015 for the company’s USD 26.5 million fine to be upheld, and a decade for the company to pay the fine for the environmental damage caused by using fire to clear ten square kilometres of land.
“The company has paid part of the fine to the Ministry of Finance but not to the community,” said Farhan, a campaigner who witnessed the fire.
But she added many actors contributed to the victory, including people who trained judges and attorneys to better understand what it meant to quantify environmental loss in economic terms.
“Judges don’t come from biology or ecology backgrounds,” she said, explaining that judges in Indonesia undergo environmental training to understand that burning forests and replacing them with monoculture plantations is not reforestation.
Farhan’s work is far from over. As long as the extractive economy persists, the threats will remain. If it isn’t palm oil plantations, it will be gold mining or attempts to redraw boundaries.
Her organisation challenges these threats through legal action, spatial planning and, at times, by helping the government evaluate permits across districts and landscapes.
“There are times when government decisions need to be criticised and challenged, and we do that,” she said.
IPS UN Bureau Report
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De ce seul fait que la vitesse des événements en cours nous fait irrésistiblement penser à cette phrase de Lénine selon laquelle il est des semaines où il s'en passe plus qu'en une décennie, nous savons très exactement dans quel type de période nous sommes entrés : extra-ordinaire. La saturation de l'esprit n'est pas le moindre de ses périls. Pour cheminer dans des événements d'une telle densité, il faut une ligne. Le problème ici est qu'il y en a plusieurs.
- La pompe à phynance / France, Mouvement de contestation, ViolenceBy Anwarul K. Chowdhury
NEW YORK, Oct 27 2026 (IPS)
The selection of the next Secretary-General of the United Nations has reached a critical juncture. It raises fundamental questions about fairness, transparency, regional balance, and the democratic legitimacy of the world’s most universal organization.
Ambassador Anwarul K. Chowdhury
The announcement on 21 October by the United Arab Emirates nominating its Minister of State, Ambassador Lana Nusseibeh, has introduced another dimension to an already prolonged selection process.Ambassador Nusseibeh is an experienced diplomat with an established record of service to the United Nations. However, the timing of this candidature raises legitimate questions about the integrity and credibility of the selection process.
Two Women Lead a Historic Selection Process
Six rounds of Security Council straw polls have already taken place. Two distinguished and competent women from the Latin American and the Caribbean regional group of the United Nations, Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica and Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana, have emerged as the two topmost leading candidates, with the former receiving at the last straw poll the Charter-required minimum nine votes of the 15-member Council.
It is a not only a historic first but a pioneering opening in the selection of the first woman as the Secretary-General of the United Nations, thereby fulfilling a Charter obligation (Article 8) and at least a decade-long global aspiration to set right the aberration of a lineup of men only at the leadership of the UN.
The two topmost candidates have campaigned diligently, presented their visions, engaged with Member States as well as civil society and endured the rigours and uncertainties of successive straw polls. Their perseverance deserves our sincere respect and recognition.
Yet their candidatures face opposition from two permanent members of the Security Council.
The Veto Must Not Override the Will of 191 Member States
This brings us to a fundamental question: Why should the preferences of two veto-wielding countries outweigh the collective interests of the remaining 191 UN Member States?
The United Nations belongs to all its members. Its leadership should reflect that universal ownership.
The veto, inherited from the geopolitical circumstances of 1945, continues to cast a long shadow over the Organization. When the preferences of a few determine the choices available to the many, the principle of sovereign equality becomes increasingly difficult to reconcile with institutional practice.
The overwhelming majority of Member States should not be held hostage to the veto preferences of two powerful permanent members. Grynspan and Rodrigues-Birkett have even received three positive encouragement, thereby majority of the five veto-wielding members.
The General Assembly Must Assert Its Charter Authority
There is also a constitutional dimension which deserves renewed attention.
Article 97 of the UN Charter clearly stipulates that the Secretary-General shall be appointed by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council.
The General Assembly’s authority to appoint is explicit. It should never be reduced to a ceremonial rubber-stamping of the Council’s decisions negotiated behind closed doors.
If the Assembly finds a recommendation unacceptable, it has the authority to reject it. That constitutional responsibility should be exercised with independence, conviction, and without fear or favour.
The General Assembly represents the universal membership. Its voice, its authority must count.
Regional Balance and the Case for Latin America and the Caribbean
Regional representational balance is another essential consideration.
An established, though informal, understanding has guided the geographical rotation of the Secretary-Generalship. Asia was represented immediately before the current Secretary-General, António Guterres, who is the fourth head of the UN from West Europe, by Ban Ki-moon of the Republic of Korea.
Latin America and the Caribbean have produced only one Secretary-General, Javier Pérez de Cuéllar of Peru, who served from 1982 to 1991, 35 years ago from now.
The region’s expectation that its turn has arrived therefore rests on a compelling historical foundation.
Its candidates have invested considerable effort in the selection process. They have faced scrutiny, uncertainty, and political resistance. They weathered the storm with dignity.
To bypass them now, primarily because two permanent members remain dissatisfied, would raise troubling questions about the value of the entire process.
Late Candidatures and the Credibility of the Process
Late candidatures are permissible under existing practices. Nevertheless, entering the contest after six straw polls, including the decisive color-coded exercise identifying permanent-member opposition, inevitably raises concerns about procedural fairness.
It resembles arriving at harvest time to enjoy the fruit without having planted or nurtured the tree.
Various political calculations, sometimes rather arbitrary, surrounding the Secretary-General’s appointment have surfaced and featured often. They should not become a substitute for a transparent and credible selection process.
The next Secretary-General must possess integrity, independence, and courage. Gender equality and regional balance in representation should strengthen, rather than diminish, the search for these qualities.
The selection now before Member States is an opportunity to demonstrate that the United Nations remains faithful to its founding principles.
Eighty-One Years, Nine Men, Not One Woman
Above all, let me reiterate that one historic injustice and unacceptable reality demand correction.
In its eighty-one years of existence, the United Nations has not yet elected a woman Secretary-General — eight decades plus, nine men, and not one woman.
What an embarrassment – what a shame!
How can an institution that speaks of equality at every podium continues to model inequality at its pinnacle?
The credibility of the UN’s advocacy depends on its own reflection in the mirror.
This is an extraordinary contradiction for an Organization committed to gender equality and women’s empowerment.
The appointment of a woman as the tenth Secretary-General is long overdue.
The current two leading women candidates should not withdraw because of the threat of veto and pressurized by these two P5 members.
Their candidatures remain alive and valid before the General Assembly till it takes the final decision.
The veto must not become the voice of the United Nations.
The General Assembly must assert its rightful authority, as empowered by Article 97.
Ambassador Anwarul K. Chowdhury, former Under-Secretary-General and High Representative of the United Nations, Initiator of the UNSCR 1325 on Women and Peace and Security as the President of the UN Security Council in March 2000 underscoring women’s equality of participation; President/Chairman of the UNICEF Executive Board on two occasions; Founder of the Global Movement for The Cultural of Peace (GMCoP) and a well-known analyst of the UN system’s work.
IPS UN Bureau
Members of the Global Catholic Congress pose with a poster supporting an end to child marriage. Credit: JRC
By Kizito Makoye
ROME & DAR ES SALAAM, Oct 27 2026 (IPS)
The message from Just Rights for Children (JRC) was clear: protecting children must take precedence over customs used to justify their marriage.
The Global Catholic Congress, representing 44 countries, has endorsed JRC’s campaign to end child marriage by 2030. Announced in Rome on 22 October, the commitment brings influential faith leaders into a global effort to end a practice that continues to deprive millions of children, particularly girls, of their childhood.
“Every child deserves a childhood filled with dignity, education, safety and hope,” said Rajeev Kochuparambil, president of the Global Catholic Congress, announcing its support for the campaign.
“Ending child marriage is a collective moral responsibility that calls upon families, communities and faith institutions to stand together.”
Welcoming the congress’s support, JRC founder Bhuwan Ribhu said faith leaders could play a decisive role in preventing child marriage.
“When faith stands with justice and the protection of children, child marriage can end in one day,” he said.
His words convey a sense of urgency that global progress has yet to match.
UNICEF estimated in 2023 that 640 million girls and women alive at the time had married in childhood. About one in five young women aged 20–24 had married before turning 18, down from nearly one in four a decade earlier. Despite this progress, the rate of decline remained insufficient to eliminate child marriage by 2030.
Behind these figures are girls whose marriages can interrupt their education, restrict their independence and limit their future economic opportunities. UNFPA describes child marriage as both a consequence and a driver of gender inequality, with girls from poorer households and rural communities disproportionately affected.
For the JRC campaign, religious leaders provide a way to reach families and communities where they make decisions about marriage.
According to JRC, the Rome gathering brought together senior Catholic clergy, bishops, archbishops and community leaders from across several continents, including India, the United States, Canada, Africa, Australia, Singapore, the Middle East and Europe. Participants signed a joint pledge to help end child marriage and mobilise faith communities to protect children’s dignity, safety and freedom.
The commitment places responsibility on institutions whose relationships with families extend beyond wedding ceremonies. The campaign seeks to encourage faith leaders to challenge harmful social norms, engage parents and mobilise communities to intervene before a child marriage takes place.
The alliance reflects the international reach of the challenge. UNICEF’s assessment found that South Asia accounted for 45 percent of the world’s child brides, followed by sub-Saharan Africa with 20 percent. India alone accounted for approximately one-third of the global total.
JRC’s approach combines community mobilisation with intervention when a child faces an imminent marriage. According to the organisation, its work involves engaging parents, faith leaders and those involved in wedding ceremonies through counselling and persuasion, with legal action where necessary. Children, friends and relatives can also alert its teams to planned marriages.
The organisation also seeks to address the pressures that can lead families to arrange early marriages by connecting vulnerable households with government assistance and scholarship programmes.
This broader approach matters because changing the law alone cannot address all the social and economic pressures that sustain child marriage. The World Bank has highlighted the importance of combining legal reform with education, economic opportunities and efforts to change social norms.
The Rome pledge comes amid wider international efforts to end child, early and forced marriage. On 4 September 2026, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution establishing 27 November as the annual International Day for the Elimination of Child, Early and Forced Marriage. The first observance will take place next month. Ribhu has been among those advocating for the establishment of the international day.
IPS UN Bureau Report
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By Mandeep S.Tiwana
NEW YORK, Oct 27 2026 (IPS)
Notwithstanding last minute shenanigans and the possibility of backroom deals by powerful states, two women from Latin America are leading contenders in the race for the UN’s next Secretary-General. After 80-plus years of men-only leadership, momentum is building to break the glass ceiling at the global institution dedicated to saving future generations from the scourge of war.
Design flaws in the somewhat opaque appointment process that bestow arbitrary veto powers on the five permanent UN Security Council members could, however, torpedo the aspiration for equitable representation for women at the helm for the world body. But there is still time to build public pressure on governments to do the right thing by appointing a feminist woman leader from Latin America and the Caribbean in deference to the principle of regional rotation.
UN in crisis
The next Secretary-General will preside over a fractious UN facing one of its hardest tests. Russia and the USA, which as Security Council permanent members are supposed to maintain international peace and security, are actively violating the UN Charter’s ban on aggression. Their ill-conceived invasions of Ukraine and Iran are causing large-scale death and destruction.
The USA has also recently imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court, making it harder to pursue justice for the Israeli genocide of Palestinians and conflicts fuelled by powerful states in Congo, Sudan and Yemen. China, another permanent Council member, continues to provide cover for crimes against humanity committed by Myanmar’s brutal military junta, currently embroiled in a civil war against dissidents.
Demands on the UN are increasing. Over 100 million forcibly displaced people need the UN’s support. But the institution faces a deep financial crisis caused by delays in payments of dues by bigger countries and an unnecessarily complicated funding model. The funding crisis comes as the challenges are mounting up. Climate commitments are being undermined by fossil fuel lobbies and petrostates as the world hurtles towards tipping points. Repressive states are pushing to reverse hard-won human rights that the UN is supposed to protect, including sexual and reproductive freedoms for women. Some two-thirds of Sustainable Development Goals targets, which seek to promote social progress and better standards of living, are not being met, driven by a combination of inadequate resourcing and escalating attacks on civic space.
The UN needs a leader who can break the mould by being much more than a bureaucrat beholden to states. The next Secretary-General should seek to derive legitimacy by representing the needs and aspirations of over eight billion people around the world. With confidence in multilateralism at breaking point, the exercise of feminist leadership principles that combine active listening, courage, consensus building and empathy for victims of abuses, will be crucial.
She must be able to bravely stand up for the UN Charter and its commitment to human dignity and justice under international law. When Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev demanded that Dag Hammarskjöld resign as Secretary-General in 1960, he reminded the UN General Assembly that big powers are not the ones that need the UN for protection: “it is all the others.” In 2004, Kofi Annan had the courage to call the US invasion of Iraq illegal in a rebuke to US President George W. Bush.
Given the pressures, it may be a good idea for the next Secretary-General to declare they will stand for only one term, thereby avoiding the trap of being overly cautious towards the most powerful states in their first term so they can be re-elected. Security Council permanent members have shown they will block re-appointments if a Secretary-General does not do their bidding. In 1996, Boutros Boutros Ghali was denied a second term because of a US veto.
Civic engagement needed
A deep commitment to human rights and the quest for transparency, accountability and participation will determine how the next Secretary-General will be remembered by future generations in how approached this hard and often thankless job. Civic engagement should be at the heart of the UN’s agenda. Just 75 of 193 UN member states, accounting for only seven per cent of the world’s population, respect their people’s freedoms to organise, speak out and protest peacefully.
To start changing this, in her first 100 days, the next Secretary-General should appoint a UN Civil Society Envoy to drive the UN’s outreach to people and civil society around the world, elevate the issue of reprisals against activists who engage with the UN and highlight unfair blocking by states of civil society organisations that seek to participate in the UN’s work.
From the time of its founding in 1945 amid the ruins of war, oppressed people have looked to the UN to be the conscience of the world. In the second half of the 20th century, the UN, through leaders like U Thant, championed the aspirations of discriminated and colonised peoples for self-rule and dignity. The next Secretary-General should prioritise the voices of excluded peoples by bringing the voices of those on the sharp end of repression into rooms where decisions are made. She can build consensus the feminist way, by never letting a door close.
During the Cuban Missile Crisis in the early 1960s, U Thant kept communication channels open with both the world’s superpowers, proposed the standstill that helped pull the world back from the brink of nuclear war and then persuaded Cuban leader Fidel Castro to de-escalate the situation. The next Secretary-General’s moral clarity can shape the world of tomorrow. She must be mindful of the needs and aspirations of young people who have the greatest to gain from a functioning UN but have the least voice.
Her leadership must be bold, inventive and unafraid to fail. Dag Hammarskjöld invented the UN’s peacekeeping role during the 1956 Suez crisis, going beyond the UN Charter. He died in 1961 attempting to broker a ceasefire in the Congo. Kofi Annan publicly owned the UN’s failures in Rwanda and Srebrenica, then turned those lessons into the Responsibility to Protect. The world’s first woman Secretary-General must help the UN win back legitimacy and trust among the world’s people. To do that, she will need to be creative and not be constrained by tradition or fear of failure.
Mandeep S. Tiwana is the secretary general of civil society alliance, CIVICUS. He also serves as CIVICUS’s representative to the UN headquarters in New York.
IPS UN Bureau
IPS UN Bureau
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