SWP

Die Ermittlungen zu Chemiewaffenangriffen in Syrien drohen eingestellt zu werden. Doch wenn Täter straffrei bleiben, könnten Angriffe zunehmen, warnt Oliver Meier. Auch würde die Chemiewaffenkontrolle weltweit geschwächt.

Severin Fischer,

Severin Fischer,

Nach dem gescheiterten Referendum in Kolumbien wird es darauf ankommen, der FARC-Guerilla eine politische Stimme in der innenpolitischen Auseinandersetzung zu geben, meint Günther Maihold. Dies verlangt allen Beteiligten die Bereitschaft zu Zugeständnissen ab.

Israel has been increasingly criticised for violating substantive democratic principles. The trigger was a series of decisions and initiatives. In July 2016, the Knesset adopted a stricter transparency law for non-governmental organisations (NGOs) financed from abroad, as well as a law empowering it to divest its members of their mandate. For weeks and months, government had made various suggestions for closer oversight of cultural and media institutions (for instance). There has also been repeated disapproval of Supreme Court judgements, which went hand in hand with calls for Parliament to be enabled to overrule its verdicts. These advances have had negative repercussions not just in Israel, but internationally as well.

Russia’s foreign policy has taken numerous unexpected turns in recent years, from annexation of Crimea to military intervention in Syria. The element of surprise for Germany and the EU arises out of a mix of lack of political transparency in Russia, Western misperceptions and the Kremlin’s deliberate instrumentalisation of unpredictability.

In order to expand analytical thinking about Russian foreign policy and improve preparedness for future events, this scenario study based on scientific research describes eleven possible situations that could potentially unfold in the coming years. Four fields of Russian policy are considered: EU member states; other regions; internet, energy and security; and Eurasia.

Without seeking to be exhaustive, the contributions reflect “conceivable surprises” that could present great challenges and even dangers for Germany and Europe, but could also offer possibilities for closer cooperation. Applying their academic expertise, the authors reveal existing trends and extrapolate them into the future. The described situations are not simply made up, of course, but are based on existing structures and developments. Rather than seeking to predict the future, or specifics event, the study surveys “possible futures”.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Sabine Fischer / Margarete Klein
Introduction: Conceivable Surprises in Russian Foreign Policy
S. 5

Liana Fix / Ronja Kempin
Far-right Victory in Paris: The Kremlin and the French Elections
S. 13

Susan Stewart
Russia Launches a Multifaceted Campaign to Discredit Germany
S. 18

Dušan Reljic
Russia Gives Serbia the Choice: Satellite or Bargaining Chip
S. 25

Alexandra Sakaki
Breakthrough in the Kuril Islands Dispute between Japan and Russia
S. 30

Azadeh Zamirirad
Russia Replaces the United States as Iraq’s Security Partner
S. 35

Marcel Dickow
EurasiaNet – How They Split the Internet
S. 43

Oliver Meier
Russia Withdraws from Nuclear Arms Control
S. 47

Kirsten Westphal
Gazprom Loses Its Export Monopoly
S. 52

Sebastian Schiek
Confrontation in Russia’s Backyard: Intervention in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan
S. 59

Franziska Smolnik
“Republic of Ossetia-Alania”: North and South Ossetia Unify in the Russian Federation
S. 64

Sabine Fischer / Margarete Klein
Russia after the Duma Elections: Reformist Government and Nationalist Foreign Policy
S. 72

Under the presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil launched numerous foreign policy initiatives in Latin America and beyond, raised its profile as a mediator in regional and international conflicts, played an active role in international organizations and shaped global governance debates. In fact, one can safely say that the “Lula era” marked Brazil’s ascent in foreign policy, which was the result of a continuous expansion of external action pursued with an extraordinary amount of energy. Today, Brazilian foreign policy can no longer be reduced simply to trade policy. It has become more diversified not only in terms of its thematic and geographical scope, but also with regard to its institutional architecture and the range of policy instruments. This development went hand in hand with a shift in Brazil’s external priorities and constituted a watershed in the country’s approach towards foreign policy. What were the main trends in foreign affairs under the Lula government? How were they embedded in the broader context of international relations? These are some of the questions this study seeks to answer.

Die Maßnahmen der EZB zur Stabilisierung des Euroraums sind derzeit alternativlos, aber nicht für eine nachhaltige Beilegung der Eurokrise geeignet. Ohne kollektive Bemühungen der Eurostaaten geht es nicht, meint Paweł Tokarski.

Since 2014 German and European attention has been largely absorbed by the annexation of Crimea, the war in Donbas and the crisis in relations with Russia. Yet the eastern neighbourhood also contains four unresolved territorial conflicts, which have in some respects developed very dynamically since 2014. The authors of this study examine the role of Russia in these conflicts, the political background, the relevant actors and their interests, and the connection between conflict level and geopolitical context. Together they produce a nuanced picture of the arc of conflict in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood. Their verdict in all four cases is that the conditions for constructive conflict regulation have deteriorated since 2014. Alongside the geopolitical context, local factors are also significant. Russia plays an ambivalent role, instrumentalising all four conflicts to preserve its influence in the affected states, but without enjoying full control of the dynamics. The authors recommend the EU pursue a nuanced policy of conflict regulation that takes into account context-sensitive local factors as well as the international context. The medium-term goals of such a policy range from the preservation of existing channels of interaction (Transnistria) through de-isolation (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) to de-escalation and conflict prevention (Nagorno-Karabakh).

Table of Contents

Sabine Fischer
Issues and Recommendations
p. 5

Sabine Fischer
Russian Policy in the Unresolved Conflicts
p. 9

Klemens Büscher
The Transnistria Conflict in Light of the Crisis over Ukraine
p. 25

Sabine Fischer
The Conflicts over Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Light of the Crisis over Ukraine
p. 43

Franziska Smolnik / Uwe Halbach
The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict in Light of the Crisis over Ukraine
p. 61

Sabine Fischer
Conclusions and Recommendations: European Peace Policy in the Unresolved Conflicts
p. 81

In the last decades, the traditional understanding of organized crime (OC) has been widely challenged. As the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Europol, as well as German authorities have extensively highlighted, hierarchical criminal organizations coexist and overlap with new forms of liquid networked criminality. These criminal networks are composed of flexible alliances between professionals acting worldwide that regulate themselves based on market logic rather than violent conflicts. While appearing “dis-organized,” these criminal networks are highly resilient to law enforcement intervention due to their redundancy. Their capacity for infiltrating the legitimate economy and the estimated sums of money they launder globally, which amounts to between 2 and 5 percent of global GDP yearly (UNODC), are alarming. Therefore, not only law enforcement and policymakers, but also the private sector cannot afford to drop their guard. National interventions often just push criminal activities into other countries; hence, effective strategies should address global markets’ dynamics.

Der Friedensvertrag zwischen Farc-Rebellen und Regierung ist nur der Anfang der Versöhnung in...

On Independence Day in May 2016, the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics announced that the Israeli population had increased tenfold since the State’s establishment in 1948. Leading national newspapers rejoiced that the population has multiplied from an initial 800,000 to almost 8.5 million, a figure ascribable to the highest birth rate in the western world among other facts, such as Jewish immigration. This, in turn, can be attributed to the fact that the state seeks to preserve and promote the country’s Jewish majority. The downside of this policy is the discrimination of minorities living in Israel, which are deemed a demographic threat. This applies not only to Arab Israelis, but also to the growing number of foreign workers who replace labour forces from the Palestinian territories, and to African refugees whose legal integration within the Israeli citizenship system is not foreseen. Less exclusive access to citizenship and the secure legal status of non-Jewish population groups is likely only to be possible if they are no longer viewed as a threat.