SWP

Die Maßnahmen der EZB zur Stabilisierung des Euroraums sind derzeit alternativlos, aber nicht für eine nachhaltige Beilegung der Eurokrise geeignet. Ohne kollektive Bemühungen der Eurostaaten geht es nicht, meint Paweł Tokarski.

Since 2014 German and European attention has been largely absorbed by the annexation of Crimea, the war in Donbas and the crisis in relations with Russia. Yet the eastern neighbourhood also contains four unresolved territorial conflicts, which have in some respects developed very dynamically since 2014. The authors of this study examine the role of Russia in these conflicts, the political background, the relevant actors and their interests, and the connection between conflict level and geopolitical context. Together they produce a nuanced picture of the arc of conflict in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood. Their verdict in all four cases is that the conditions for constructive conflict regulation have deteriorated since 2014. Alongside the geopolitical context, local factors are also significant. Russia plays an ambivalent role, instrumentalising all four conflicts to preserve its influence in the affected states, but without enjoying full control of the dynamics. The authors recommend the EU pursue a nuanced policy of conflict regulation that takes into account context-sensitive local factors as well as the international context. The medium-term goals of such a policy range from the preservation of existing channels of interaction (Transnistria) through de-isolation (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) to de-escalation and conflict prevention (Nagorno-Karabakh).

Table of Contents

Sabine Fischer
Issues and Recommendations
p. 5

Sabine Fischer
Russian Policy in the Unresolved Conflicts
p. 9

Klemens Büscher
The Transnistria Conflict in Light of the Crisis over Ukraine
p. 25

Sabine Fischer
The Conflicts over Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Light of the Crisis over Ukraine
p. 43

Franziska Smolnik / Uwe Halbach
The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict in Light of the Crisis over Ukraine
p. 61

Sabine Fischer
Conclusions and Recommendations: European Peace Policy in the Unresolved Conflicts
p. 81

In the last decades, the traditional understanding of organized crime (OC) has been widely challenged. As the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Europol, as well as German authorities have extensively highlighted, hierarchical criminal organizations coexist and overlap with new forms of liquid networked criminality. These criminal networks are composed of flexible alliances between professionals acting worldwide that regulate themselves based on market logic rather than violent conflicts. While appearing “dis-organized,” these criminal networks are highly resilient to law enforcement intervention due to their redundancy. Their capacity for infiltrating the legitimate economy and the estimated sums of money they launder globally, which amounts to between 2 and 5 percent of global GDP yearly (UNODC), are alarming. Therefore, not only law enforcement and policymakers, but also the private sector cannot afford to drop their guard. National interventions often just push criminal activities into other countries; hence, effective strategies should address global markets’ dynamics.

Der Friedensvertrag zwischen Farc-Rebellen und Regierung ist nur der Anfang der Versöhnung in...

On Independence Day in May 2016, the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics announced that the Israeli population had increased tenfold since the State’s establishment in 1948. Leading national newspapers rejoiced that the population has multiplied from an initial 800,000 to almost 8.5 million, a figure ascribable to the highest birth rate in the western world among other facts, such as Jewish immigration. This, in turn, can be attributed to the fact that the state seeks to preserve and promote the country’s Jewish majority. The downside of this policy is the discrimination of minorities living in Israel, which are deemed a demographic threat. This applies not only to Arab Israelis, but also to the growing number of foreign workers who replace labour forces from the Palestinian territories, and to African refugees whose legal integration within the Israeli citizenship system is not foreseen. Less exclusive access to citizenship and the secure legal status of non-Jewish population groups is likely only to be possible if they are no longer viewed as a threat.

Die transatlantischen Beziehungen werden in jedem Fall komplizierter

Vanessa Steinmetz

Zu lange habe Europa gezögert, in der Flüchtlingskrise seine Grenzen zu schützen. Davor hatte...

The UK’s EU referendum is making waves in the Nordic countries. The vote could give a boost to Euro-critical parties across the region. However, it seems unlikely that EU members Denmark, Finland and Sweden will head for the exit in the foreseeable future or that non-members Norway and Iceland will loosen their ties with the EU to any significant extent. Nonetheless, with the UK’s exit, the Nordic countries face the prospect of losing one of their key allies within the EU and will be compelled to rethink their positions in and towards the Union. There are already initial signs of adjustment – based on sometimes shared and sometimes divergent priorities. If the five countries are able to capitalise on their commonalities, Nordic cooperation in the context of an EU-27 may well gain traction.

Die Einführung eines europäischen Kurzarbeitergelds könnte die EU als Solidarunion sichtbar machen und damit langfristig den Weg für eine europäische Arbeitslosenversicherung ebnen, meint Peter Becker.

Die wirtschaftliche und politische Entwicklung Asiens zeitigt Chancen und Risiken. Auf der einen Seite wächst das Gewicht der Region in der Weltwirtschaft; auf der anderen Seite ist Asien durch komplexe sicherheitspolitische Herausforderungen in seinen verschiedenen Subregionen gekennzeichnet. Widerstreitende territoriale Ansprüche, Rivalitäten zwischen alten und neuen Großmächten verbunden mit dem Wettlauf um Ressourcen und Einfluss, militante Aufstandsbewegungen ethnischer und religiöser Gruppen sowie eine umfassende konventionelle und nukleare Aufrüstung ergeben unterschiedliche Konfliktkonstellationen in Nordostasien, Südostasien und in Südasien.

Der Band untersucht die verschiedenen Strategien Chinas, Indiens, Indonesiens, Russlands, Japans und der USA zur Verbesserung der regionalen Sicherheit.

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