Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Funktioniert Trumps Wirtschaftspolitik etwa? Kurz sah es so aus, als ob er ökonomische Regeln außer Kraft setzen könnte. Doch mittlerweile zeigen sich ernste Probleme.

US-Haltung zu Israel

Die Zahl indischer Migrant:innen in Deutschland ist in den letzten Jahren stark gestiegen. Sie helfen hierzulande besonders den Fachkräftemangel in MINT-Berufen zu lindern. Indien ist das wichtigste Herkunftsland für Arbeits- und Bildungs­migration. Das Profil der Migrant:innen wandelt sich derzeit. Es kommen weniger Expert:innen mit der Blauen Karte EU, dem wichtigsten Aufenthaltstitel für hochqualifizierte Arbeitskräfte, und mehr Studierende, Auszubildende und beruflich qualifizierte Personen zur Jobsuche oder Anerkennung von Qualifikationen. Das 2022 zwischen Berlin und Neu-Delhi geschlossene Migrations- und Mobilitätspartnerschaftsabkommen (MMPA) ergänzt den deutschen Rechtsrahmen zur Fachkräftegewinnung nicht durch zusätzliche Zugangswege. Doch es verbessert die praktische Umsetzung selbstorganisierter Migration aus Indien, etwa durch beschleunigte Visaverfahren. Die Gemeinsame MMPA-Arbeitsgruppe bietet die Möglichkeit, im Dialog mit der indischen Regierung die Potentiale der zunehmenden Migration zu nutzen, aber auch die daraus erwachsenden Herausforde­rungen zu meistern, etwa die unzureichende Regulierung privater Vermittlungsagenturen. Das Beispiel Indien zeigt, dass Deutschland über seine Außenstrukturen noch viel stärker im Herkunftsland ansetzen muss, um – mit Hilfe der migrationsbezogenen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit – neue Konzepte zur fairen und erfolgreichen Fachkräftegewinnung für Deutschland zu erarbeiten. Die Migrationskooperation mit Indien ist ein verbindendes Element in den wichtiger werdenden deutsch-indischen Beziehungen. Themen bilateraler Kooperation wie Digitalisierung, künstliche Intelligenz und Klimaschutz sollten systematisch mit Wissensaustausch und der Mobilität von Fachkräften in der jeweiligen Branche verbunden werden.

Capital is grabbing back land allocated through diverse national land reform and landrestitution programmes globally. This article critically analyses this trend, which has so far received insufficient attention from land grab scholars. Drawing from independent research in South Africa, Bolivia, Canada, and Zimbabwe, we define a future research agenda investigating the capital segments and grabbing mechanisms involved as well as the factors that encourage or retard capital in grabbing back redistributed and restituted lands. We point to the need for further research into the land grabbing-land reform/restitution nexus in different geographic contexts and its implications for future land and agrarian struggles.

Capital is grabbing back land allocated through diverse national land reform and landrestitution programmes globally. This article critically analyses this trend, which has so far received insufficient attention from land grab scholars. Drawing from independent research in South Africa, Bolivia, Canada, and Zimbabwe, we define a future research agenda investigating the capital segments and grabbing mechanisms involved as well as the factors that encourage or retard capital in grabbing back redistributed and restituted lands. We point to the need for further research into the land grabbing-land reform/restitution nexus in different geographic contexts and its implications for future land and agrarian struggles.

Capital is grabbing back land allocated through diverse national land reform and landrestitution programmes globally. This article critically analyses this trend, which has so far received insufficient attention from land grab scholars. Drawing from independent research in South Africa, Bolivia, Canada, and Zimbabwe, we define a future research agenda investigating the capital segments and grabbing mechanisms involved as well as the factors that encourage or retard capital in grabbing back redistributed and restituted lands. We point to the need for further research into the land grabbing-land reform/restitution nexus in different geographic contexts and its implications for future land and agrarian struggles.

Ein Kniefall vor Donald Trump? Groß war die Kritik am neuen Handelsdeal der EU mit dem US-Präsidenten. Die Abmachung ist nicht nur fürs Klima ein Desaster, mahnt Claudia Kemfert – sie droht auch einen alten Fehler der Vergangenheit zu wiederholen., Die jüngste Beilegung des Zollstreits zwischen den USA und der EU umfasst weitaus mehr als Zölle. So hat sich die EU offenbar verpflichtet, bis zum Ende von Trumps Amtszeit für 750 Milliarden Dollar amerikanische Energie zu kaufen. Das mag zunächst nach einem Handelserfolg klingen, nach ...

This paper analyses the structural vulnerabilities of Latin American economies amid recent United States (US)-China tariff escalations and identifies strategic opportunities emerging from these shifts. Based on descriptive bilateral trade data from 2023 for the largest Latin American economies – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico – the study assesses exposure to US tariffs at the industry level. It further highlights sectors with the potential to benefit from diverted trade flows in the context of trade polarisation between China and the US. The degree of exposure varies across countries, depending on export structure and trade partners. While the tariff conflict may enable some countries to expand exports to China or the US, most Latin American economies – except Mexico – export their largest share of their manufactured goods within the region. Strengthening regional trade integration can therefore enhance resilience to external shocks and support technological upgrading.

Melike Döver and Martin Middelanis are researchers at Freie Universität Berlin in Germany.

This paper analyses the structural vulnerabilities of Latin American economies amid recent United States (US)-China tariff escalations and identifies strategic opportunities emerging from these shifts. Based on descriptive bilateral trade data from 2023 for the largest Latin American economies – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico – the study assesses exposure to US tariffs at the industry level. It further highlights sectors with the potential to benefit from diverted trade flows in the context of trade polarisation between China and the US. The degree of exposure varies across countries, depending on export structure and trade partners. While the tariff conflict may enable some countries to expand exports to China or the US, most Latin American economies – except Mexico – export their largest share of their manufactured goods within the region. Strengthening regional trade integration can therefore enhance resilience to external shocks and support technological upgrading.

Melike Döver and Martin Middelanis are researchers at Freie Universität Berlin in Germany.

This paper analyses the structural vulnerabilities of Latin American economies amid recent United States (US)-China tariff escalations and identifies strategic opportunities emerging from these shifts. Based on descriptive bilateral trade data from 2023 for the largest Latin American economies – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico – the study assesses exposure to US tariffs at the industry level. It further highlights sectors with the potential to benefit from diverted trade flows in the context of trade polarisation between China and the US. The degree of exposure varies across countries, depending on export structure and trade partners. While the tariff conflict may enable some countries to expand exports to China or the US, most Latin American economies – except Mexico – export their largest share of their manufactured goods within the region. Strengthening regional trade integration can therefore enhance resilience to external shocks and support technological upgrading.

Melike Döver and Martin Middelanis are researchers at Freie Universität Berlin in Germany.

United States (US) trade policy has undergone a series of significant changes introducing far-reaching uncertainty for trading partners in both the short and long term. Among the most vulnerable to these changes are low- and middle-income countries. Anticipating the potential impact of proposed or enacted US trade measures ex-ante is difficult. Therefore, this discussion paper examines the structural vulnerabilities of a selection of African countries – Lesotho, Madagascar, Côte d’Ivoire, South Africa, and Tunisia – to recent shifts. Using descriptive trade data, the paper maps direct and indirect channels of exposure and highlights the structural constraints that amplify vulnerability. While Africa is not among the most directly exposed regions, several countries face significant risks due to concentrated export structures, reliance on a few trade partners, and limited capacity to redirect trade in the short term. This highlights the strategic importance for African countries to strengthen regional integration, industrial upgrading, and reduce external dependencies.

Sascha Berndt and Andreas Edele are trade policy experts at Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.

United States (US) trade policy has undergone a series of significant changes introducing far-reaching uncertainty for trading partners in both the short and long term. Among the most vulnerable to these changes are low- and middle-income countries. Anticipating the potential impact of proposed or enacted US trade measures ex-ante is difficult. Therefore, this discussion paper examines the structural vulnerabilities of a selection of African countries – Lesotho, Madagascar, Côte d’Ivoire, South Africa, and Tunisia – to recent shifts. Using descriptive trade data, the paper maps direct and indirect channels of exposure and highlights the structural constraints that amplify vulnerability. While Africa is not among the most directly exposed regions, several countries face significant risks due to concentrated export structures, reliance on a few trade partners, and limited capacity to redirect trade in the short term. This highlights the strategic importance for African countries to strengthen regional integration, industrial upgrading, and reduce external dependencies.

Sascha Berndt and Andreas Edele are trade policy experts at Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.

United States (US) trade policy has undergone a series of significant changes introducing far-reaching uncertainty for trading partners in both the short and long term. Among the most vulnerable to these changes are low- and middle-income countries. Anticipating the potential impact of proposed or enacted US trade measures ex-ante is difficult. Therefore, this discussion paper examines the structural vulnerabilities of a selection of African countries – Lesotho, Madagascar, Côte d’Ivoire, South Africa, and Tunisia – to recent shifts. Using descriptive trade data, the paper maps direct and indirect channels of exposure and highlights the structural constraints that amplify vulnerability. While Africa is not among the most directly exposed regions, several countries face significant risks due to concentrated export structures, reliance on a few trade partners, and limited capacity to redirect trade in the short term. This highlights the strategic importance for African countries to strengthen regional integration, industrial upgrading, and reduce external dependencies.

Sascha Berndt and Andreas Edele are trade policy experts at Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.

In this merged edition of MORE, Bledar Feta and Çelik Rruplli examine the trajectory of Albania’s judicial reform, launched in 2016 as part of the country’s EU accession efforts and broader attempts to strengthen democracy, the rule of law, and public trust in institutions. A central component of the reform is the establishment of SPAK, the Special Anti-Corruption Structure, an independent judicial body tasked with investigating and prosecuting high-level corruption and organized crime.

Operational since late 2019, SPAK has filed charges against senior officials from both the current and former administrations. Public trust in the institution has grown significantly, with recent data from a Euronews Albania Barometer survey indicating that 52.1% of citizens now express confidence in SPAK, making it the most trusted institution in the country for the first time. Furthermore, 70.7% of respondents evaluated its performance positively, while both figures have risen by 10% since January 2025. High-profile cases including the arrest of Tirana mayor Erion Veliaj have further solidified SPAK’s credibility in the public eye. While this progress has contributed to Albania advancing its EU accession process, particularly in the areas of fundamental rights and the rule of law, major challenges remain. These include a shortage of magistrates, case backlogs, and perceptions of corruption that remain persistently high, despite signs of increased public cooperation with judicial institutions.

This paper is part of the Media Observatory Reports (MORE) and covers the period from October 2023 to February 2025. It highlights how media coverage of justice reform in Albania—particularly regarding SPAK—has been extensive but often polarized. While the media plays a vital role in shaping public understanding, it also tends to amplify political narratives, undermining objective scrutiny and contributing to confusion about the aims and progress of the reform. The Media Observatory Reports are part of the broader “ALGREE – Albania-Greece: Understanding. Connecting. Partnering” project implemented by the South-East Europe Programme of the Hellenic Foundation for Foreign & European Policy (ELIAMEP) with support from the Open Society Foundations Western Balkans (OSFWB) and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom Greece and Cyprus (FNF). They are based on the systematic monitoring and analysis of leading Greek and Albanian media, with a focus on how each country reports on the other as well as on issues of common interest.

You can read the paper in Greek, Albanian and English.

In ihrer 2025 neu erstellten Bedrohungseinschätzung (Serious and Organized Crime Threat Assessment, SOCTA) konstatiert die europäische Polizeibehörde Europol einen deutlichen Wandel der Bedrohungslage durch organisierte Kriminalität. Gegen­über dem Vorgänger­bericht von 2021 stellt Europol sogar eine veränderte DNA der organi­sierten Kriminalität fest. Diese hat sich besonders im Zuge der Covid-19-Pande­mie ver­stärkt auf digitale Kanäle verlagert, wo kriminelle Dienstleistungen einfach und mit niedrigen Zugangsschranken angeboten werden. Transnational organisierte krimi­nelle Lieferketten verbinden Deutschland und Europa inzwischen fest mit ande­ren Welt­regionen. Das zeigt sich an der aktuellen Kokainschwemme und der wach­senden Konkurrenz auf europäischen Märkten. Auch benutzen gerade autoritär regierte Staaten organisierte Kriminalität zunehmend als geopolitisches Vehikel, etwa um Sabotageakte zu verüben, Spionage zu verschleiern oder Sanktionen zu um­gehen. Davon sind die Mit­gliedstaaten der Europäischen Union (EU) und ihre direkte Nach­barschaft beson­ders betroffen. Neben engerer internationaler Zusammenarbeit bedarf es besse­rer Abstimmung von Instrumenten des Innen- und Außenhandelns.