By Dan Smith
STOCKHOLM, Sweden, Nov 6 2018 (IPS)
At a political rally on Saturday, 20 October, US President Donald J. Trump announced that the United States will withdraw from the 1987 Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty). This confirms what has steadily been unfolding over the past couple of years: the architecture of Russian–US nuclear arms control is crumbling.
Building blocks of arms control
As the cold war ended, four new building blocks of East–West arms control were laid on top of foundations set by the 1972 Treaty on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems (ABM Treaty):
• The 1987 INF Treaty eliminated all ground-launched missiles with a range between 500 and 5500 kilometres, including both cruise and ballistic missiles.
• The 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty) capped at equal levels the number of heavy weapons deployed between the Atlantic and the Urals by members of both the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Warsaw Treaty Organization (WTO).
• The 1991 Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START I) reduced the number of strategic nuclear weapons; further cuts were agreed in 2002 and again in 2010 in the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START).
• The 1991 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives (PNIs) were parallel, unilateral but agreed actions by both the Soviet Union and the USA to eliminate short-range tactical nuclear weapons, of which thousands existed.
Taken together, the nuclear measures—the INF Treaty, START I and the PNIs—had a major impact (see figure 1).
Source: Kristensen, H. M. and Norris, R. S., ‘Status of world nuclear forces’, Federation of American Scientists, 2018.
The fastest pace of reduction was in the 1990s. A deceleration began just before the new century started, and there has been a further easing of the pace in the past six years. Nevertheless, year by year, the number continues to fall.
By the start of 2018 the global total of nuclear weapons was 14 700 compared with an all-time high of some 70 000 in the mid-1980s. While nuclear weapons are more capable in many ways than before, the reduction is, nonetheless, both large and significant.
Cracks appear: Charge and counter-charge
Even while the number continued to drop, problems were emerging. Not least, in 2002 the USA unilaterally withdrew from the ABM Treaty. However, that did not stop Russia and the USA from signing the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT Treaty) in 2002 and New START in 2010, but perhaps it presaged later developments.
Trump’s announcement brings a process that has been going on for several years towards its conclusion. The USA declared Russia to be violating the INF Treaty in July 2014. That was during the Obama administration.
Thus, the allegation that Russia has breached the INF Treaty is, in other words, not new. This year the USA’s NATO allies also aligned themselves with the US accusation, albeit somewhat guardedly (note the careful wording in paragraph 46 of the July Summit Declaration).
The charge is that Russia has developed a ground-launched cruise missile with a range over 500 kilometres. Many details have not been clearly stated publicly, but it seems Russia may have modified a sea-launched missile (the Kalibr) and combined it with a mobile ground-based launcher (the Iskander K system). The modified system is sometimes known as the 9M729, the SSC-8 or the SSC-X-8.
Russia rejects the US accusation. It makes the counter-charge that the USA has itself violated the INF Treaty in three ways: first by using missiles banned under the treaty for target practice; second by deploying some drones that are effectively cruise missiles; and third by taking a maritime missile defence system and basing it on land (Aegis Ashore) although its launch tubes could, the Russians say, be used for intermediate range missiles. Naturally, the USA rejects these charges.
A further Russian criticism of the USA over the INF Treaty is that, if the USA wanted to discuss alleged non-compliance, it should have used the treaty’s Special Verification Commission before going public.
This was designed specifically to address questions about each side’s compliance. The Commission did not meet between 2003 and November 2016, and it was during that 13-year interval that US concerns about Russian cruise missiles emerged.
Now Trump seems to have closed the argument by announcing withdrawal. Under Article XV of the treaty, withdrawal can happen after six months’ notice. Unless there is a timely change of approach by either side or both, the INF Treaty looks likely to be a dead letter by April 2019.
It could be, however, that the announcement is intended as a manoeuvre to obtain Russian concessions on the alleged missile deployment or on other aspects of an increasingly tense Russian–US relationship. That is what Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, implied by calling the move ‘blackmail’.
Arms control in trouble
Whether the imminence of the INF Treaty’s demise is more apparent than real, its plight is part of a bigger picture. Arms control is in deep trouble. As well as the US abrogation of the ABM Treaty in 2002,
• Russia effectively withdrew from the CFE Treaty in 2015, arguing that the equal cap was no longer fair after five former WTO states joined NATO;
• The 2010 New START agreement on strategic nuclear arms lasts until 2021, and there are currently no talks about prolonging or replacing it; and
• Russia claims that the USA is technically violating New START because some US launchers have been converted to non-nuclear use in a way that is not visible to Russia.
As a result, Russia cannot verify them in the way the treaty says it must be able to. The Russian Government’s position is that until this is resolved, it is not possible to start work on prolonging New START, despite its imminent expiry date.
It seems likely that the precarious situation of Russian–US arms control will simultaneously put increasing pressure on the overall nuclear non-proliferation regime and sharpen the arguments about the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW, or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty).
For the advocates of what is often known as the nuclear ban, the erosion of arms control reinforces the case for moving forward to a world without nuclear weapons. For its opponents, the erosion of arms control shows the world is not at all ready for or capable of a nuclear ban.
The risk of a return to nuclear weapon build-ups by both Russia and the USA is clear. With it, the degree of safety gained with the end of the cold war and enjoyed since then is at risk of being lost. Aware of the well-earned reputation for springing surprises that the Russian and US presidents both have, there may be more developments in one direction or another in the coming weeks or even days.
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Excerpt:
Dan Smith is Director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
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Roumanie : les Hongrois boudent le centenaire de « l'État-nation unitaire »
L'Ukraine s'irrite elle aussi du Centenaire de la « Grande Roumanie »
Moldavie : grande manifestation à Chișinău pour la « réunification » avec la Roumanie
Identité nationale, eugénisme et lois raciales dans la « Grande Roumanie » de 1918
Roumanie : les Hongrois boudent le centenaire de « l'État-nation unitaire »
L'Ukraine s'irrite elle aussi du Centenaire de la « Grande Roumanie »
Moldavie : grande manifestation à Chișinău pour la « réunification » avec la Roumanie
Identité nationale, eugénisme et lois raciales dans la « Grande Roumanie » de 1918
Après plusieurs audiences dans le dossier de fraude fiscale, le député Atao Hinnouho vient de connaître son sort. C'est ce mardi au tribunal de première instance de Cotonou.
Six ans fermes et trois milliards de francs CFA d'amende pour Mohamed Atao Hinnouho. C'est le verdict que vient de rendre le juge. Sur une dizaine de chefs d'accusation, le premier vient de connaître son épilogue. Le député était poursuivi pour violence et voie de fait, et fraude douanière. Bien que ses avocats annoncent faire appel, les peines de l'honorable Atao Hinnouho ne sont toujours pas terminées avec la justice puisque d'autres dossiers attendent encore dans les couloirs de la justice. Sa convocation devant d'autres chambres est encore d'actualité. Pour le moment, le député passera six années derrière les barreaux en attendant les autres dossiers.
G.A.
A parlamenti többségért aggódnak pártbéli kollégái a Szociáldemokrata Párton belüli „mozgások” miatt – mondta Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu, a Liberálisok és Demokraták Szövetségének elnöke. Liviu Dragnea a PSD elnökeviszont ma közölte, fölöslegesnek tartja a kisebbik koalíciós párt vezetőjének aggodalmát, mert szerinte a kormánytöbbség nincs veszélyben. Tăriceanu ezzel arra reagált, hogy a PSD országos végrehajtó bizottságának tegnapi ülésén Adrian Ţuţuianu szenátort és Marian Neacşu főtitkárt kizárták a pártból.
By WAM
ABU DHABI, Nov 6 2018 (WAM)
The first three renewable energy projects under the US$50 million United Arab Emirates-Caribbean Renewable Energy Fund, UAE-CREF, have broken ground in the Bahamas, Barbados and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, MOFAIC, announced today.
Fully financed by the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, ADFD, the UAE-CREF is the largest renewable energy initiative of its kind in the Caribbean, representing a partnership between MOFAIC, ADFD, and Masdar, the project manager and implementing lead.
Reem bint Ibrahim Al Hashemy, Minister of State for International Cooperation, said, “These renewable energy projects underway in the Bahamas, Barbados and St Vincent and the Grenadines further make the business case for sustainable development and UAE-Caribbean cooperation. They will create jobs and reduce energy costs to stimulate the local economy, while also incorporating concrete measures to address the reality of climate and hurricane risk.”
The three projects, designed by Masdar with the respective national governments, are set to come online by Q1 2019. In the wake of hurricanes Irma and Maria, the projects are also being built to elevate storm standards and are located in less exposed areas.
Mohammed Saif Al Suwaidi, ADFD Director-General, said, “In cooperation with MOFAIC and Masdar, ADFD is proud to witness the rapid pace of development in three of the four country recipients of cycle one of the UAE-CREF. Like its predecessor – the ADFD-funded and fully executed US$50 million UAE Pacific Partnership Fund – the UAE-CREF supports sustainable economic and social development across the Caribbean through helping countries to maximize their vast natural potential for resilient, commercially viable renewable energy.”
“Through strategically partnering with Small Island Developing States, a group of small island countries that share similar development challenges, ADFD will help them achieve sustainable energy solutions that enhance their climate resilience and the economic prospects of the local communities. These projects in the Bahamas, Barbados and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines will have a significant positive knock-on effect on the adoption of renewable energy elsewhere in the Caribbean and Latin American region,” Al Suwaidi added.
In the Bahamas, a 900-kilowatt solar PV plant at the national stadium will also serve as a carport with electric vehicle, EV, charging stations. As the country’s first large-scale solar energy project, it sets a regulatory precedent for new renewable energy plants to feed into the grid.
In Barbados, the project has two elements; a 350-kilowatt solar PV carport also with EV charging stations, and a 500-kilowatt ground-mounted PV plant. Both projects are being built in partnership with the Barbados Water Authority.
In Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the project sets a strong precedent for using renewable energy to drive down energy costs on its outer islands. Under construction on Union Island, the 600-kilowatt solar PV plant is connected to a 500-kilowatt-hour lithium-ion battery and is expected to supply all of the island’s daytime power needs. Union Island’s energy costs are currently almost 50 percent higher than those of the main island of Saint Vincent.
The combined output of the solar power plants will be 2.35 megawatts, MW. Collectively, they will achieve diesel savings of more than 895,000 litres per year while displacing more than 2.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually. This represents an annual diesel fuel saving of at least US$1.1 million.
One of the additional aims of the Fund is to promote local capacity building, including training and employment opportunities, with a view to promoting gender equality. The projects’ manager and lead engineer are both women, and women will represent at least a third (30 percent) of the staff employed by the EPC contractors responsible for the new renewable energy projects.
“Masdar is proud to be working alongside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development in the implementation of the UAE-Caribbean Renewable Energy Fund programme, building on the success of a similar collaboration in the Pacific Islands whose 11 projects continue to benefit local communities today,” said Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi, Chief Executive Officer of Masdar. “The projects being delivered through the Fund will be engineered to meet the specific needs of each host country, and make an important contribution to the emergence of a commercially viable renewables sector in the Caribbean and the Latin America region.”
“As a global renewable energy company active in more than 20 countries, with projects ranging from utility-scale power plants to off-grid and remote-area installations, Masdar is honoured to leverage its experience and expertise in collaboration with those of its partners in the UAE-Caribbean Renewable Energy Fund,” Al Ramahi added.
The UAE-CREF aims to deploy renewable energy projects in 16 Caribbean countries over the next three years to help reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports, stimulate economic activity and enhance climate change resilience. Two projects in the first cycle of the fund – in Antigua and Barbuda and Dominica – are currently being reconfigured in the aftermath of the 2017 hurricane season. The second cycle of the Fund – involving renewable energy projects in Belize, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, St Kitts and Nevis, and St Lucia – was announced at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week and the IRENA Assembly in January 2018. The next cycle of the Fund will be announced in January 2019.
WAM/Rasha Abubaker/Nour Salman
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