Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Kritische Rohstoffe sind zu einem Schlüsselthema der Trump-Administration gewor­den. Mit einer Mischung aus Deregulierung, staatlicher Steuerung und Finanzierung will sie die amerikanische Rohstoffindustrie ausbauen. Denn die hohe Ab­hängigkeit der USA von chinesischen Rohstoffen zwingt Washington bei Verhandlungen mit Peking zu schmerzhaften Zugeständnissen. Trump nutzt die Roh­stofffrage nun selbst als geopolitischen Hebel, um seine handels- und sicherheits­politischen Interessen global geltend zu machen. Während multilaterale Foren wie die Minerals Secu­rity Partnership brachliegen, setzt Trump auch im Rohstoffsektor auf bilaterale Deals. Bei der Sicherung kritischer Rohstoffe konkurriert Europa mittlerweile nicht mehr nur mit China, sondern auch mit den USA. Daher sollte die Europäische Union (EU) ihre Rohstoff­souveränität entschlossener stärken, ohne sich bei Fragen der Nachhaltigkeit und regelbasierter Kooperation von Trump in die Defensive drängen zu lassen.

Schon wieder wurde der Abschluss des EU-Handelsabkommen mit den Mercosur-Staaten geschoben - auch, weil Europäier in Lateinamerika bloß einen Absatzmarkt sehen, sagt Lateinamerika-Experte Günther Maihold. Freuen dürfte das China.

What could be more festive than reading about alien worlds and malevolent AI leaders? Check out this year’s recommended reads from cybersecurity experts.

Die Europäische Kommission erwägt seit 2024, die Zuständigkeiten und Aktivitäten von Europol auszubauen. Das Personal der Agentur soll dabei verdoppelt und ihr Mandat um drei Themen erweitert werden – Sabotage, Desinformation und hybride Bedrohungen. Angepeilt werden eine noch zu definierende Umgestaltung von Euro­pol in eine »schlagkräftige« Polizeibehörde und eine stärkere Kontrolle über die Agentur. Diese Vorhaben, die auf politischen wie bürokratischen Überlegungen be­ruhen, kamen ohne vorherige Konsultation der EU-Mitgliedstaaten und technische Abschätzung zustande. 2026 will die Kommission den Mitgliedstaaten einen Vorschlag für die Mandatsänderung vorlegen. Der Schwerpunkt einer Weiterentwicklung von Europol sollte jedoch nicht unbedingt auf einem neuen Mandat liegen, sondern sich vorrangig nach dem operativen Bedarf richten, den die nationalen Strafverfolgungsbehörden bei der Bekämpfung von Drogenhandel, Cyberkriminalität und Terro­rismus haben. In diesen Kernbereichen sind Personalaufstockung und Innovation er­forderlich, jedoch nicht zwingend durch eine Mandatsreform. Generell bedarf es bei der EU einer langfristigen Strategie für die künftige Architektur der inneren Sicher­heit, an der sich eine Ausgestaltung von Europol orientieren sollte.

United Nations (UN) peacekeeping missions are under political and financial pressure. In his letter dated 10 October 2025, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on nine missions to prepare contingency plans for spending cuts of up to 25 per cent. The peacekeeping mission in Cyprus (UNFICYP), established in 1964, shows why Europe has a fundamental interest in the UN remaining engaged.

The conflict between the Republic of Cyprus in the Greek-speaking south and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the Turkish-speaking region recognised only by Ankara, has been largely frozen since the de facto division of the island. This certainly has also been due to UNFICYP’s presence. Since the 1974 ceasefire, the mission has controlled the “Green Line”, a 180-kilometre strip separating the two parts that is intended to prevent direct confrontation.

Nevertheless, the mission continues to record numerous military and civilian violations in and along the buffer zone By doing so, it still prevents “those sparks from bursting into flames”, as Colin Stewart, head of UNFICYP until August 2025, put it. To this day, there still is no direct military contact mechanism between the parties. In fact, the threat perception has increased again on both sides recently.

New impetus for peace efforts

For this reason alone, the European Union and its member states cannot be interested in any further reduction or even a potential withdrawal of the mission. The political process is just beginning to tentatively gain momentum. María Angela Holguín Cuéllar was reappointed as the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy in May 2025 and is tasked with exploring possibilities for a new round of formal negotiations and breaking the deadlock. 

This is a difficult undertaking. While the UN Security Council continues to pursue a federal solution, Northern Cyprus and Turkey have been promoting a two-state solution for years. However, the election of Turkish Cypriot President Tufan Erhürman in October has raised hopes that the door could open for new negotiations under UN auspices. The first trilateral meeting between him, the President of the Republic of Cyprus, and Holguín has just taken place. But a rapprochement is likely to take time. Confidence-building measures and the safeguarding of peace by the UN therefore remain essential.

The essential role of the UN

As the Republic of Cyprus is a member of the EU, the Union itself can hardly act as an impartial mediator. It therefore primarily supports the UN-led political process. The EU’s options in the security domain are also constrained. A separate EU mission – as is currently being considered for Lebanon following the withdrawal of UNIFIL – would be unrealistic, if only because of the tense relationship between Greece and Turkey, both of which, alongside the United Kingdom, are the guarantor powers for Cyprus. 

Therefore, the stabilising function of the UN mission remains essential for the foreseeable future. It also creates the framework for practical rapprochement, for example through the projects of the Technical Committees. Under joint Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leadership and facilitated by the UN, these initiatives promote understanding between the two communities, and the EU provides a large portion of the funding. 

UNFICYP is in a better financial position than many larger UN missions, as Greece and the Republic of Cyprus cover about half of the budget. However, staffing and operational cuts will be necessary. At the same time, the raison d'être of a mission that has been running for decades is repeatedly being called into question. At the end of January 2026, the mandate is up for renewal again. Despite all the criticisms from the Turkish government and former leaders in Northern Cyprus, the UN Security Council's position has remained unchanged so far. 

In order to break the deadlock in negotiations, there is a need for more economic engagement from the European side to improve the situation in the north. In the short term, however, EU member states should make it clear that UNFICYP – and UN peacekeeping as a whole – is indispensable.

Peacekeeping-intelligence (PKI) plays a central role in enhancing the safety and security of UN personnel and in supporting mandate implementation, particularly the protection of civilians. Yet despite growing recognition that gender dynamics shape conflict behavior, threat patterns, and community engagement, gender perspectives remain unevenly integrated across PKI institutions, analytical processes, and training systems. This limits missions’ situational awareness, weakens their early-warning capacity, and constrains their operational effectiveness. 

This issue brief examines how gender can be more systematically integrated into PKI across three interrelated dimensions: the representation of women within PKI institutions, the integration of gender perspectives across the PKI cycle, and the design and delivery of PKI training. Drawing on UN policies and more than 100 interviews with personnel across five peacekeeping missions, the brief highlights persistent structural, analytical, and institutional gaps that undermine gender-responsive intelligence. 

The brief argues that integrating gender into PKI is not merely a normative obligation but a core operational requirement. Advancing this agenda requires sustained investment in workforce diversity, analytical methodologies, data systems, training design, and institutional collaboration to strengthen predictive capacity, enhance civilian protection, and improve mission performance. 

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The post The Operational Imperative of Integrating Gender into Peacekeeping-Intelligence appeared first on International Peace Institute.

Insights from UN DESA Data on Patterns, Trends, and Misconceptions

Les entreprises européennes ne sont plus de simples acteurs économiques : elles sont devenues des cibles stratégiques. Cyberattaques, espionnage industriel, pressions réglementaires, désinformation, sabotages logistiques ou prises de contrôle hostiles composent désormais un continuum de menaces dites « hybrides », où les frontières entre guerre, économie et influence s’effacent. Dans un nouveau Briefing, l’Institut Choiseul […]

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IPI and the Permanent Mission of Latvia to the United Nations cohosted a public discussion on Navigating Frontline Challenges for the use of Technology in UN Peace Operations on December 11th.

The event examined how UN peace operations should navigate the changing technology landscape to maximize potential benefits for efficiency and effectiveness, address changing threats posed by the use of technology by conflict parties, and mitigate the risks and potential harms presented by the introduction of new technologies into peacekeeping environments. As the Secretariat’s ongoing review of the future of all forms of UN peace operations examines opportunities for new mission modalities and formats, this event considered the potential role of new technologies across various types of mission configurations. This could include, for example, the appropriate balance of remote sensing technologies and on-the-ground presence in a future ceasefire-monitoring mission. Panelists also discussed the political, operational, and ethical implications of new peacekeeping technologies within the current geopolitical and financial environment and proposed opportunities to adapt the UN’s technology and innovation agenda in light of these challenges.

Opening Remarks:
H.E. Sanita Pavļuta-Deslandes, Permanent Representative of Latvia to the United Nations

Speakers:
Remi Clavet, Chief of Joint Mission Analysis Center (JMAC), UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) (Virtual)
Dirk Druet, Non-Resident Fellow, International Peace Institute
Major Modris Kairišs, Head of Autonomous Systems Competence Center, National Armed Forces of Latvia (Virtual)
Barbara Nieuwenhuys, Digital Transformation Team, UN Department of Peace Operations (DPO)

Closing Remarks:
H.E. Usman Iqbal Jadoon, Deputy Permanent Representative of Pakistan to the United Nations (Virtual)

Moderator:
Lauren McGowan, Policy Analyst, International Peace Institute

The post Navigating Frontline Challenges for the Use of Technology in UN Peace Operations appeared first on International Peace Institute.

Dans un nouveau Briefing réalisé avec l’Observatoire B2V des Mémoires et avec le soutien d’Eurogroup Consulting, nous explorons le rôle central — mais encore trop sous-estimé — de la mémoire dans la conduite des transformations organisationnelles. Les approches classiques du changement privilégient l’avenir : feuilles de route, KPIs, trajectoires de performance, modèles cibles… L’attention se […]

We are all heartbroken by the news we have lost a cherished member of our small IPI/IPA family in the form of Ambassador David Malone DPhil, who served as our President with great distinction from 1998 to 2004. We extend our condolences to David’s family, as well as to his diplomatic family in Canada.

Loved and respected by the UN Think-Tank community, David was ubiquitous throughout Turtle Bay when leading IPA, always in the thick of things, tugging at old approaches and suggesting new ways of analyzing multilateralism. He did so brilliantly and—true to his personality, often playfully. He was a most remarkable man and a friend to so many of us. We will miss him sorely.

– Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, IPI President

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David was a remarkable individual. Superb writer/observer on the U.N., on international law, on politics wherever he found himself. He loved teaching and urged many of his students to work with international organizations and to consider the work of diplomacy as a career. I had the good fortune to work with him at IPA/IPI. My wife and I visited him when he was posted to India. We will always cherish the private times we shared with him there.He truly was “A man for all seasons.”

– John Hirsch, Former IPA/IPI Vice President

The post In Memoriam: David M. Malone appeared first on International Peace Institute.

Az ősz végére egy ősz eleji rendezvény felidézését tartogattam. Néhány évente baráti találkozóra gyűlnek össze a közel három évtizede, 1997-ben felszámolt 101. Felderítő Repülő Század tagjai. Legutóbbi találkozójukat szeptember 5-én tartották Kaposújlakon. 

Az élet óhatatlan velejárója, hogy az egyes közösségek idővel felbomlanak, tagjai szétszélednek. Jobb esetben a közösen megélt élmények és az összetartozás érzése arra ösztönzik az egykori társakat, hogy időről időre találkozzanak, kezet rázzanak egymással és felelevenítsék az emlékeket. Ugyanakkor mindig kell valaki, aki ezt a közösséget összefogja, felvállalja a feladatot és megvalósítja a találkozót. Az egykori taszári Szuhoj század esetében ez a valaki a találkozók szervezője és motorja, Horváth István (Buci) nyugállományú törzszászlós, aki a Szu-22-esek és An-26-osok rádió berendezésein dolgozott. A valóság sajnos az, hogy az évek könyörtelen múlásával a közösség egyre kisebb és vannak, akikkel többé már nem találkozhatnak az egykori századtársak. Horváth István felhívására ezúttal közel hetvenen gyűltek össze a volt taszári Szuhoj fészekhez közeli kaposújlaki repülőtéren. A század egykori parancsnoka, Balogh Imre a találkozók állandó résztvevője volt. Idén egészségi okokból nem jöhetett el, ezért üzenetében köszöntötte egykori beosztottait.

[...] Bővebben!

Face aux crises sanitaires, géopolitiques, énergétiques et technologiques, la souveraineté n’est plus un simple horizon politique : elle redevient un impératif stratégique. Elle ne signifie ni repli ni fermeture, mais la capacité fondamentale à produire, décider, protéger et coopérer en position de force. Avec ses 100 propositions, l’Institut Choiseul propose une feuille de route complète […]

Dans une nouvelle étude, Jean-François Daguzan, Vice-président de l’Institut Choiseul et spécialiste des questions stratégiques, propose une relecture contemporaine des stratégies d’influence culturelle. Il y analyse les mutations profondes d’un concept longtemps stabilisé — le soft power — à travers les stratégies adoptées par plusieurs pays : États-Unis, Corée du Sud, Algérie et Inde. À […]

A NATO-hoz 2004-ben csatlakozott balti államok - Litvánia, Észtország és Lettország - nem rendelkeznek vadászgépekkel, légterük védelmét a kollektív védelem jegyében a szövetség biztosítja. A Magyar Honvédség szerepvállalása a Baltic Air Policing (BAP) néven ismert misszióban immár tíz éves múltra tekint vissza. A kecskeméti, szolnoki, pápai és veszprémi katonák négy Gripen vadászgéppel jelenleg a negyedik rotációt teljesítik, megbízatásuk a vége felé jár. Mindennapjaikba egy médianap keretében kaptunk betekintést.

[...] Bővebben!

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IPI, together with Independent Diplomat cohosted a discussion on November 13th on innovative means to engage non-state actors in multilateral conflict resolution and prevention.

As armed conflicts reach their highest level in decades and the UN Security Council faces mounting criticism for its inability to prevent or resolve contemporary crises, there is an urgent need for more effective approaches to international peacemaking. One gap in current approaches is the lack of meaningful engagement with non-state actors, including armed groups, political opposition parties, and civil society movements—particularly within the Security Council. To fill this gap, the nonprofit diplomatic advisory group Independent Diplomat (ID) launched the “Meet the Parties” (MTP) platform.

MTP offers an impartial, confidential platform for UN Security Council members to engage multilaterally with non-state stakeholders—many of them politically contested. Over the past two years, ID has facilitated dozens of discreet MTP meetings between Security Council members and non-state actors from Afghanistan, Cameroon, South Sudan, Syria, and Sudan. MTP demonstrates that informal, unconventional approaches to diplomacy can positively influence both affected parties and international stakeholders.

This event presented a new policy report with findings from the first comprehensive assessment of the MTP initiative. The report spotlights practical methods to strengthen the inclusion of non-state actors in Security Council consultations. It also explores the transferability of these lessons beyond the Security Council, including to the UN Peacebuilding Commission, the African Union, and other multilateral forums.

Speakers:
Marlene Spoerri, Director of US and UN, Independent Diplomat
Reza Afshar, OBE, Executive Director, Independent Diplomat
Andreas Løvold, Deputy Permanent Representative of Norway to the UN
Larry Johnson, Former UN Assistant Secretary-General for Legal Affairs
Kevin Irakoze, Assistant Professor, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Mariam Jalabi, Co-founder, Syrian Women’s Political Movement

Moderator:
Jenna Russo, Director of Research, Head of the Brian Urquhart Center for Peace Operations, International Peace Institute

The post Meet the Parties: Strengthening Multilateral Diplomacy through Inclusive Engagement with Non-state Actors appeared first on International Peace Institute.

2018 májusában egy tengerészgyalogos hamvaival és hagyatékával egy amerikai üzletember érkezett Budapestre. Utazásával a tengerészgyalogos kívánságát teljesítette, akit gyerekkora óta barátjának mondhatott, és akinek kérése az volt, hogy a végső nyughelye szülőföldjén legyen.

Az 1956-os forradalom és szabadságharc leverése után külföldre emigráló magyarok a legkülönbözőbb életutat futották be. A többség beilleszkedett az új környezetbe, voltak, akik visszatérhettek eredeti mesterségükhöz, mások új szakmát tanultak, és abban igyekeztek boldogulni, néhányan pedig a befogadó ország fegyveres erőinél találtak megélhetést. Utóbbiak közé tartozott Szabolcs István is, aki az Egyesült Államok tengerészgyalogságának (US Marine Corps) légierejénél szolgált. Hosszú út vezetett Budapestről egy F-4 Phantom II-es vadászbombázó hátsó üléséig. Mivel a személyes találkozó és beszélgetés már nem jöhet létre, a Szabolcs István – vagy, ahogy Amerikában nevezték, Steven Szabolcs - által bejárt útnak csak egy-egy szakaszát ismerhetjük meg visszaemlékezések, fotók és dokumentumok segítségével.

[...] Bővebben!

Quels sont les rôles que peuvent jouer les banques européennes dans un écosystème financier en plein essor – et les leviers à activer dès aujourd’hui ? L’Institut Choiseul et Sopra Steria publient un nouveau Livre Blanc : Stablecoins, euro digital : quelle monnaie pour la finance de demain ? Les systèmes de paiement sont à […]