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Evolving Urban Conflicts

Foreign Policy Blogs - jeu, 17/10/2024 - 16:45

The QN-506, a low cost option mirroring the BMPT Terminator may become the pre-AI standard in Urban Combat.

 

What would have been a simple narrative of popular sci-fi games just three short years ago, urban combat has become a mixture of traditional anxiety mixed with modern horrors on the battlefield. The Geo-political environment is asking for more of these conflict in urban environments, characterised by high losses and brutal victories at the best of times. While there has been little development of new and innovative arms or equipment in urban warfare from the Second World War into the Vietnam War, the last few major conflicts in urban situations gave rise to new concepts of protection and firepower via hard lessons in combat.

The Soviet experience in Afghanistan as well as Russian losses in the Chechen Wars was a lesson in armour support. While the traditional method of bringing tanks into an urban situation required accompanying soldiers to protect tanks and armour, the use of and development of a dedicated anti-personnel armour vehicle became a necessity. Anti-air systems like the ZSU-23-4 Shilka were stripped of their radar and used in a direct fire role against high angled targets in the mountains of Afghanistan. Despite this lesson, urban combat in Chechnya resulting in the loss of many Russian armoured vehicles, despite the past lessons of using the Shilka against high angled targets.

The era that approached the 2010s still required a proper system for protected urban combat, even after a generation of slow developments by urban warriors fighting in Iraq and extended fighting in Afghanistan. An independent system/assault drone was still out of reach, but was demonstrated in the movie Robocop in 2014. The classic ED-209 from the 1980s Robocop films was re-imagined and put in the role of urban combat droid, a concept that will likely be seen in the near future as a method to avoid casualties in urban combat.

When the War in Ukraine began, one of the most fear combat systems possessed by Russian Forces approaching Kyiv was the BMPT Terminator. Based on a modified T-72 hull and chassis, the mass produced T-72 was used with an updated unmanned turret to create a modern urban combat vehicle that utilised large reserve stocks of older classic T-72 hulls. Added protection to the T-72 enabled the crew of 2 to be buttoned up inside of the protected hull, while the active turret was controlled remotely. The turret consisted of an arsenal of weapons to suit an urban environment, notably two cannons from the BMP-2, machine guns, anti-tank missiles and other useful sensors to repel assaults from high angles above or from protected shelters. The BMPT Terminator was a manned version of something seen in sci-fi movies, with technology that could be developed into a BMPT that could perhaps be unmanned in the future. The Uran-9 concept was just that, a unmanned ground attack drone that is likely still in development today.

While systems like the Uran-9 require a new manufacture and design, the idea of using older T-72 hulls for a new system like the Terminator may become a solution for the ever dwindling armour stockpile being ground through in the War in Ukraine. The old Soviet stockpile being used by both Russia and Ukraine in combat is often not destroyed by other tanks, but by artillery, drones, and personnel using anti-tank weaponry. While the T-72s are being ripped apart on the battlefield, Russia possesses many T-55 hulls in storage from the mid-Cold War period with cannons that are not effective against modern armour on the battlefield. If these systems could be re-imagined for urban combat, they might provide an easily accessed and rapid solution for either army fighting in towns across Ukraine and Russia.

The idea of putting a modern system on an old and well stocked hull was attempted by China already with their QN-506 vehicle, China’s “Terminator” concept. The PLA’s copy of the Soviet T-54, the Type 59, is part of the same design family as the T-55, and is the basis for the QN-506 urban combat vehicle. While this system did not sell well on the international market when it was first presented, it was a concept that was meant as a option for countries who possessed the older T-55/Type 59 hulls to have a modern urban combat platform for their military. The QN-506 also had a single cannon like an M2 Bradley, but in an unmanned turret like the BMPT. The QN-506 also had a series of smaller rockets, anti-tank missiles, and its own drone, along with sensors and equipment to serve in an urban combat environment. While the concept did not sell well as few short years ago, such a system will likely be effective in urban conflicts where no such system alternatives exist at the moment. This low cost alternative will be the best option for many militaries, as traditional tanks have several drawbacks as experienced in Grozny, warfare that is increasingly urban and based on developing AI technologies. While conflicts grow, more of these systems will find their place in those battles. It is just a matter of time before we see an ED-506 perhaps, as losses of AI equipment can easily be replaced.

Standing Up To Defend A Strong US Ally

Foreign Policy Blogs - mer, 09/10/2024 - 18:03

Representative Adam Schiff (D-California) should reconsider the Artsakh Revenue Recovery Act. It is an affront to an American ally. 

When the United States was fighting against the Taliban in Afghanistan, all American troops stopped in Baku in order to refuel en route to Kabul. Throughout all of the years that the United States was in Afghanistan, the Azerbaijanis provided this service to American servicemen and servicewomen, without complaints. And when the United States decided that it was time to evacuate from Afghanistan, Azerbaijan worked together with Turkey in order to ensure that American servicemen and servicewomen got home safely.

Usually, when a US ally does something like that for the United States, most Americans would show their appreciation, especially when this same country is helping Europe to obtain energy security in the wake of the war in the Ukraine. However, Representative Adam Schiff, a Democrat from California, does not show any appreciation for what Azerbaijan does for the United States and Europe. Instead, he cares about getting Armenian votes on Election Day, which prompted him to throw American values such as appreciation for US allies out of the window.

Recently, Representative Adam Schiff has demonstrated how much he values Armenian votes over America’s national interests when he introduced the Artsakh Revenue Recovery Act, which targets Azerbaijani assets in the United States and delivers them to Armenians who were displaced during the Second Karabakh War and the subsequent military operation.

Never mind that Karabakh was recognized as part of Azerbaijan under four UN Security Council resolutions and the 30-year Armenian occupation of the area was considered illegal under international law. Never mind that during the Armenian occupation of Karabakh and the seven Azerbaijani districts, around one million Azerbaijanis were displaced from their homes and never got any compensation from Armenia for all of their suffering.  Schiff wants to target only Azerbaijan and to have them pay for the Armenian settlers that got displaced from their homes.

This would be equivalent to asking Israel to pay compensation money to a Palestinian terrorist family that got evicted from their home, after their ancestors had already seized the home from a Jewish family that was massacred in Hebron following the 1929 riots. What Schiff is asking Azerbaijan to do is essentially the same thing, pay compensation to people that occupied and squatted on land that did not belong to them, and committed grave crimes against the original inhabitants of the land.

For this reason, everyone should condemn Representative Schiff for targeting Azerbaijan, a country that is an ally of both Israel and America in the struggle against a nuclear Iran. Representative Schiff should stop targeting US allies and to stop doing the bidding of proxies of Iran, who continuously work against America’s best interests in the Caucuses region. Instead of targeting the mullahs for their repression of Azerbaijanis, Baloch, Ahwaz and other repressed groups, and provide the victims of Iranian terrorism with compensation, Representative Schiff is going after Azerbaijan. American allies do not deserve to be treated in this manner.

Ayoob Kara, who served as Israel’s Communication Minister under Netanyahu, also called upon Representative Schiff to not pursue the Artsakh Revue Recovery Act: “As we speak, Israel is being attacked by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis and other terror groups. During this period of time, Baku has provided us with a steady supply of oil and been a reliable partner. Out of respect for the Israel-US friendship, we ask that you not punish Azerbaijan in this manner.”      

The West Azerbaijani community also wrote a letter to Representative Schiff, proclaiming: “This draft is ill-informed and discriminatory as it promotes one-sided and out-of-context narratives that totally ignores the plight and suffering of one group of people and puts premium on the other group. We understand that the ethnic and religious sympathy is the main reason for your discrimination against Azerbaijan. If advanced, such a document will be an affront to human rights and international law, serving as a harbinger for instability, human suffering and damage to the US regional role.”

The West Azerbaijani community added: “We, as people who spent most of our lives in forcible displacement and destitution due to Armenia’s illegal occupation and ethnic cleansing, understand the utmost value and imperative nature of the right to return. This right is a part of fundamental human rights without regard to ethnic or religious background.  The UN team that visited the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan following the restoration of Azerbaijan’s sovereignty in September 2023 stated that “they saw no damage to civilian public infrastructure, including hospitals, schools and housing, or cultural and religious infrastructure” and “they did not come across any reports — either from the local population or from others — of violence against civilians following the latest ceasefire.”

They continued: “With a premium put on Armenian lobby groups, your discriminative approach to the right of Azerbaijanis forcibly displaced by Armenia to return to their homes is morally obnoxious. You were absolutely silent when 750,000 Azerbaijanis were ethnically cleansed, were subjected to genocide in Khojaly and denied their basic right to return for more than 30 years. You are now also silent as landmines implanted by Armenia continue to kill and maim innocent civilians who just exercise their right to return.”  

The policy of Representative Schiff is folly for the United States. Just imagine that one day, another September 11 occurs that originates with the Taliban government in Afghanistan. In such a case, the US would once again need to return to the war-torn country and will need once again stopover flights in Baku, as well as Azerbaijan’s assistance on the ground in fighting against the Taliban.  Given this, it would behoove the United States not to alienate allies that have had America’s back in the past just in order to win over some Armenian votes in California. After all, America’s national interests should come before any lobby, even if that lobby has quite a number of continents in Representative Schiff’s district.  

 

Why Pashinyan Does Not Want to Support Vardanyan Anymore

Foreign Policy Blogs - mar, 01/10/2024 - 16:13

In a recent news conference, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was asked whether he is pressing Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to free Vardanyan and other Armenians remaining in Azerbaijani captivity.

“How did it happen so that Ruben Vardanyan renounced his Russian citizenship?” he replied. “Who advised or instructed him to take that step? Who sent him to Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh and for what purpose and with what promises?”

Vardanyan, who held the second-highest post in Karabakh’s leadership from November 2022 to February 2023, was arrested at an Azerbaijani checkpoint in the Lachin corridor as he fled the region along with tens of thousands of its ordinary residents following an Azerbaijani military offensive. He was charged with “financing terrorism,” illegally entering Karabakh and supplying its armed forces with military equipment.  

Today, Azerbaijan is imprisoning him for these crimes, yet this does not seem to bother Armenia’s Prime Minister.   The question is, why?   The Armenian government under Pashinyan recently faced a Russian coup attempt and has accused a group of people of training ethnic Armenians at a military base in Russia in order to oust the democratically elected sitting Armenian prime minister from power.  

This is the same Armenian Prime Minister who has been distancing himself from Moscow in recent times, culminating in Armenia’s withdrawal from the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.  Armenia’s Investigative Committee recently announced the arrest of three people and the inclusion of four others on a wanted list for their desire to help Putin oust Armenia’s democratically elected leader. They stated that the seven suspects are Armenian citizens and Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians with close ties to Moscow, exactly like Vardanyan. They have been charged with usurping power, and if found guilty, face up to 15 years imprisonment.

Over the course of 2024, one year after the Russian oligarch Vardanyan was imprisoned, this group recruited an undisclosed number of Armenian citizens and former residents of Nagorno-Karabakh under the pretext of undergoing training sessions in Russia, along with a monthly stipend of ₽220,000 ($2,400). The recruits were told that these trainings would teach them how to use heavy weaponry, and that upon returning to Armenia, they would be able to utilize their new skills in carrying out combat duty, as well as in training others. 

According to Armenian authorities, once the recruits were transferred to Russia, they underwent preliminary checks, including a polygraph test, ‘in order to find out their personal characteristics and political views, the relationship with the Armenian law enforcement bodies’, etc. If they passed this initial test, the recruits were then deployed at the Russian Arbat Battalion’s military base to undergo combat training. It was only at this point that the recruits were told the actual goal of the training sessions — ‘to return to the Republic of Armenia and remove the current authority’.

An Armenian fact-checking outlet, Fip.amreported that the Arbat Battalion was established in 2022, the very same year Vardanyan ruled the Karabakh separatist enclave, and that it primarily consisted of ethnic Armenians. They added that the battalion had signed an agreement with the Russian Defense Ministry. They also noted that the unit has been fighting in Ukraine.  The uncovering of this battalion makes Pashinyan ponder, what role did Vardanyan have in implementing Moscow’s sinister intentions for his country?    Did Vardanyan denounce his Russian citizenship and come to Karabakh only in order to weaken me at the expense of Moscow?   And if Vardanyan had any role in helping Russia to overthrow his rule, why would he want to help Vardanyan go anywhere outside of his Azerbaijani jail cell?   

Thus, Moscow, by attempting to topple the Pashinyan government, has now helped the Pashinyan government to turn against the Russian oligarch Vardanyan, who like the group that was recently arrested was very close to Putin.   Indeed, these days, the Armenian leadership prefers Iran, France and America to Russia.   In fact, in the wake of the coup attempt, they have grown weary of having a conflict with Baku, who does respect Armenia’s right to rule in Armenia proper, unlike Moscow.     This greatly enhances the prospects for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.   Thus, given the turn of events, Pashinyan has become an ally of Baku when it comes to possessing a desire to keep Vardanyan behind bars.   

On the other side of the coin, in the wake of Putin’s recent visit to Azerbaijan, the Armenians look with apprehension at the idea of Russia getting closer to Azerbaijan.   They view it as a threat to their interest to distance themselves from Moscow, especially in light of the recent coup attempt.   Therefore, they are hostile to Azerbaijan’s anti-vector policy, which seeks to have a balanced relationship where Baku supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sends them humanitarian aid while helping the West to wean off Russian oil and gas by offering itself as a viable alternative, while at the same time doing so in a way that will not antagonize Putin.  The Azerbaijanis see how much Ukraine has suffered for wanting to be part of NATO and has chosen to be smart over right.

However, the Armenian leadership has not chosen to be smart over right.   Despite their dependency on the Russian economy as a land-locked former Soviet bloc country, they have taken actions hostile to Moscow in retribution for their lack of assertiveness in helping Armenia in recent years. And for this reason, when Moscow gets closer to Baku, they grow even more hostile to Moscow, as their successful weening off of Moscow depends squarely on Armenia making peace with Azerbaijan and the Armenians do not want the Russians to sabotage this for them.   For this reason, they are hostile towards any rapprochement between Baku and Moscow, and are highly critical of Azerbaijan taking any steps in this direction.                  

 

Drug Cartels Continue to Threaten Europe

Foreign Policy Blogs - mer, 25/09/2024 - 15:48

At a conference titled “Persecuted Asian Minorities in the EU: Legal Remedies and Humanitarian Assistance” that was recently organized by Peace for Asia Switzerland, Aye Kari Soe, a human rights activist and President of International Burmese Students, discussed her recent trip to Thailand in order to investigate the human rights abuses that are presently taking place in Myanmar.  In her talk, she discussed how Myanmar poses a major threat to the global war on drugs.     

Soe noted that Myanmar stands behind many of the drug problems faced in America and Europe: “Not just traditional drugs like cocaine and heroin, but synthetic stimulants are flooding Europe. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Myanmar is the largest producer of meth and other drugs that are not yet fully traceable yet. These drugs are being transported worldwide, affecting our citizens here in Europe. The U.S. has already been faced with this alarming issue for years, with deaths involving synthetic opioids. Europe must therefore act quickly to prevent this supply from reaching our shores and harming our citizens.”

“The people producing these drugs are often not doing so of their own free will either,” she stressed.  “Many are enslaved, sold, and forced to work, their passports seized, and their freedom stripped away. In Myanmar, young Rohingya are kidnapped and sold into industries like fishing, where they are exploited by multi-million-dollar corporations exporting products to Europe. This is why I advocate for greater transparency in our supply chains. We must ensure that we are not only fighting against human rights abuses in Europe but also standing strong and advocating for human rights for everyone, everywhere.”

Not just Myanmar poses a grave threat in regards to the drug trade.   Pakistan and Afghanistan, particularly the western border of Pakistan, is home to the largest EU-bound drug trade cartels.   European MEP Fulvio Martusciello noted in his speech at the conference: “A report by the Atlantic Council highlighted the emergence of some extremist groups in Pakistan as the most important mode of Afghan terrorist groups who deal with drug trafficking to the EU.”  He indicated that the EU and Pakistani government as well as south Asian countries should work together to counter this phenomena.

Ramen Rahangmetan, co-founder of the Circle of Sustainable Europe, added at the conference that these drug cartels also exploit refugees seeking to flee to Europe.  In fact, a recent report in the Guardian found that these drug cartels even force migrant children to work as soldiers to smuggle cocaine into Europe. 

Rahangmetan proclaimed, “Traffickers exploit the weak, charging very high fees and subjecting migrants to violence, forced labor and sexual exploitation.  These refugees are victims twice over—once in their home country and again as they are smuggled into Europe.  The EU must strengthen its efforts to fight human trafficking through cooperation with international bodies like the UN Office on Drugs and Crime.   We must ensure that asylum seekers are protected not only from persecution at home but from predatory forces that await them on their journey to safety.”

Peace for Asia Switzerland is a non-profit research-based collective focused on human rights violations in Asia.   Senior journalists, activists and political leaders participate in this forum with insights from the region.   Since its creation in 2020, they have engaged with several heads of state, UN officials and diplomats through campaigns, conferences, and webinars.  Recently joining Peace for Asia Switzerland, Anhelina Tkachenko, the moderator of the conference, is committed to advancing the association’s mission and making a meaningful impact on human rights.  

The Brutal Territory

Foreign Policy Blogs - mer, 25/09/2024 - 15:46

A Monument to The Battle of Kursk, with a classical Soviet image of varied citizens of the Socialist Republic contributing to the battle.

The victories against Fascism in the regions around and between Kharkiv and Kursk are ones that have been seared into the national memory of the Soviet Union, Russia and Ukraine. Historically significant battles during the Second World War, including the largest tank battle ever to have taken place, occurred in the Kursk region. These battles not only determined the fate of the Soviet Union and the peoples within it, but also likely changed the outcome of the Second World War for all Allied nations.

The current conflict in the same region that is now taking place between Ukraine and Russia are made up of armies who often had ancestors who fought together against Napoleon and Fascism. In many cases, these modern soldiers have direct relatives on the other side of the border, represented on the other side of the conflict. Despite this common history, the battles around Kharkiv towards Kursk are no less brutal, bloody, or survivable, making the region one of the most fought over territories in human history, a land filled with those lost in brutal combat.

This week, Russia has announced that they will enlarge their regular armed forces by 1.5 million more soldiers, putting Russia’s Armed Forces at over 2 million. This would make the Russian Army one of the largest armies in the world. With the Rouble being fairly high, even under sanctions, and their weapons industry slowly working towards full capacity, it is uncertain if this enlargement would be viable as equipment stocks may not keep up with recruitment. In addition, it is likely the case that Russian citizens would be weary of entering front line combat units as more details come to light of the brutality of the front. While accurate information about conditions at the front are difficult to verify through any reliable sources, it is likely the case that it is much worse than anyone can imagine.

One account that has gained some attention over the last few months is from a hired former PLA soldier from China who is serving in the Russian Army in Ukraine. Like a number of foreign fighters with the Russian Army, he was hired as an independent paid soldier to bolster Russian forces. His personal videos and accounts of fighting demonstrate the brutality of war, an experience mirrored during past conflicts in the same region during the Second World War. Urban combat, modern weapons and the general anarchy of the conflict paints a picture worse than anyone could have imagined for soldiers on both sides of the conflict. Such accounts make one consider what the value of war is between Ukraine and Russia in 2024, and what value actions that can prevent a full scale war can have if it can reduce a conflict escalating further. Stating that, he also said his prospects in his home country make him prefer to stay in combat abroad, which details how much care must be taken to not ignite additional conflicts in other regions of the world. Bad policy certainly has its consequences, and those who have faced combat are often the only ones who have ever seen the reality of those consequences. They are also often the ones who work most diligently to prevent further conflicts, as a true victory is often not the end result.

Azerbaijan: A Center for Demining

Foreign Policy Blogs - mar, 17/09/2024 - 21:24

Recently, the Third International Conference on Mine Action titled “Mitigating Environmental Impact of Landmines: Resource Mobilization for Safe and Green Future” was held in Azerbaijan.   It was critical to host this conference ahead of the COP29 Conference in Azerbaijan due to the role that landmines play in raising the threat of climate change.

According to the Conflict and Climate Observatory, “Conflict-affected countries are among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Climate finance to support fragile and conflict-affected states is grossly inadequate and, in an example of climate injustice, without significant changes in access to climate funds, these communities will become more vulnerable and less able to cope.”

They added: “Climate change can impact areas affected by explosive remnants of war (ERW) contamination in several ways. Extreme weather events such as flooding and heatwaves can increase the risks posed by ERW contamination; remobilizing ERW or triggering landscape fires. ERW clearance and removal operations will need to adapt to meet the challenges of climate change, while local communities may need assistance and support to build climate resilience.”

Even before Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, 60 million people worldwide live in areas affected by the explosive remnants of war.   According to the Cluster Munitions Monitor, “Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, over a thousand cluster munition casualties have been recorded in Ukraine.  In Ukraine alone, more than 50 cluster munition attacks were reported in 2023 where the number of casualties that occurred was not noted.”

They added: “New casualties from cluster munitions were recorded in nine countries—Azerbaijan, Iraq, Lao PDR, Lebanon, Mauritania, Myanmar, Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen—in 2023.    In 2023, 101 casualties from cluster munition remnants were recorded in Azerbaijan, Iraq, Lao PDR, Lebanon, Mauritania, Syria, Yemen, and Ukraine.”    Regarding the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, the Cluster Munitions Monitor stressed: “a survey by The HALO Trust in the aftermath of the 2020 conflict found that 68% of inhabited settlements had experienced cluster munition use and contamination.”

Since 1991, more than 3,429 of Azerbaijan’s citizens including 358 children and 38 women have been adversely affected by landmines.   In response to this reality, the Azerbaijani National Agency for Mine Action and the United Nations Development Program established the Center for Excellence for mine action training in Azerbaijan.   It is set to become a vital platform for exchanging demining experience and technologies with other countries experiencing similar problems.

At the UNDP/Anama Conference, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev emphasized that one of the main reasons for the high number of mine victims is Armenia’s refusal to hand over landmine maps: “The responsibility for that rests with Armenia.”    He also noted that from 2020 to 2023, new mined areas extending up to 500 km were created in Azerbaijan: “Challenges we face on demining also hamper our development and recovery efforts, creating serious obstacles for the return of 800,000 formerly displaced persons.   Mines that remain buried in the ground for a long time leads to harmful chemical reactions.   Land left unused due to mines undergoes natural erosion and degradation.”   

So far, Azerbaijan has demined 140,000 hectares of its territory, neutralizing 119,946 mines and unexploded ordinances.   Azerbaijan las year declared humanitarian demining the 18th National Sustainable Development Goal and signed a document with UNDP, highlighting the global importance of international cooperation in the field of demining.   Azerbaijan hopes to continue to share its experience with demining with the global community. 

Testing the Waters in Rougher Seas

Foreign Policy Blogs - lun, 16/09/2024 - 13:56

S-300V version Air Defence Vehicles shown after being eliminated by a strike.

 

Recently, Chinese and Philippine naval encounters have resulted in Chinese vessels ramming Philippine vessels in the waters between the two nations. The Philippines has always been one of the United States’ closest allies, and have always had a tight security arrangement with the United States. With wars already ranging in Europe and the Middle East, the last shoe to drop was always whether China would activate their forces regarding Taiwan, or if China would choose to avoid a conflict that had little practical benefit to them and their position in the world.

The events between the two nations is not simply a territorial spat, but involves all of the larger powers in the region and abroad, as it was influenced by actions abroad. Non-lethal assaults on a US ally by China may be a response to the US focusing diplomatically on China’s sale of non-military equipment to Russia that is likely being used in the production of Russian military equipment. While US allies and China could likely eliminate this tension by simply opening up sales of such affordable equipment toward the efforts to help Ukraine, this has not become an option to date. Actions by China likely surround a strategy to test the United States’ will power in helping its allies in foreign conflicts abroad. This ever present reality comes as the US Administration waffles in helping even their own citizens being held hostage while passively punishing the only forces equipped to ensure their freedom. If Americans will not even take direct actions to help their own people in dire straits, the opportunity to permanently damage the United States and their allies encourages the worst responses as a narrative, in political dealings and physically by way of open conflict. When the United States ignores their own citizens being tortured, it in effect dehumanizes them and shows to the world that human rights is no longer a core Western value. If some citizens simply don’t count, than all citizens are a target. While diplomacy always requires an outstretched arm, that arm must be always be connected to a strong hand.

While US allies do possess the strength to alter the political landscape abroad to their benefit and that of the US, the full weight of US power needs to be used in addressing conflicts so they do not escalate further. The deployment of US Naval assets in the Middle East recently likely is tamping down a larger military response in the region, but the lack of application to threats and open harm to the US and their allies has already lead to more losses in the conflict, ones that threaten to push conflicts into a more severe level. Support for Ukrainian forces entering Russia proper has been a bold show of strength, but it must be managed purposefully as a small incident in that operation could become the catalyst for an overwhelming response between nuclear powers. The lack of action against Russia’s external military support when many innocent lives of allies are being put in danger and American lives are being threatened internally is the driving factor behind China’s actions, and should be the most serious issue in the upcoming election as it will affect every since family for generations to come.

Live fire combat against defensive missile systems in Syria, and then in Russia/Ukraine has taught the US and its allies of the true capabilities of S-400 and other Russian air defense systems. Effectiveness of air defense systems against attacking missile systems is a key bit of information used by the US and China in measuring who would sustain the most losses in open conflict on the coast near Taiwan. While China’s Russian made TOR, S-300 and S-400 systems would perform well, it is now known how to defeat them during an assault. China’s large HQ-9 missile defense force along with other types would only be able to sustain a Chinese invasion of Taiwan if they could shield PLA forces from the many advance SM missiles of the US Navy, a task that is likely not possible in a wholly effective manner. The best defense therefore is a good offense, and that offense can only be successful by making their adversary weak from within before any open conflict can have a chance to be conducted. Every single conflict in the modern era begins with that one truth.

United Arab Emirates humanitarian approach

Foreign Policy Blogs - ven, 13/09/2024 - 13:56

 

A coalition of human rights organizations has released an international statement during the 57th
session of the United Nations Human Rights Council, commending the decision by the President of the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) to grant pardon to Bangladeshi nationals who were accused and convicted
of crimes affecting security and public order, and sentenced for committing crimes and offenses
punishable by law. In their statement issued on Monday, September 9, 2024, the organizations
underscored that this pardon reflects the UAE’s long-standing humanitarian approach and reinforces
its adherence to the values of tolerance. The organizations further emphasized that this act of
clemency is a testament to the sound vision and leadership of the UAE’s government. The coalition,
led by the Union Association for Human Rights, is composed of more than 20 international, regional,
and national human rights organizations, including 9 organizations holding consultative status with
the United Nations.

In their international statement, issued alongside the opening of the Human Rights Council’s session
on Monday, the human rights NGOs commended the presidential pardon, which lifted the penalties
imposed on defendants and convicts in general, thereby facilitating their return to their homeland. The
NGOs lauded the UAE’s justice system and its commitment to the principles of fair and independent
legal proceedings. Furthermore, they praised the humane conditions and environment provided during
the period of detention and the execution of sentences, noting that these practices align with
international standards.

Within the same context, the human rights organizations, in their statement endorsed by twenty-one
organizations, expressed their appreciation for the national mechanisms responsible for implementing
the pardon issued by the President of the UAE. They commended the swift action taken by the UAE’s
Attorney General to execute the pardon, which involved suspending penalties and facilitating the
measures to ensure the return of defendants and convicts to their homeland. The organizations
emphasized the significance of this initiative in fostering peace, tolerance, and human coexistence –
values that the UAE is committed to promote across the globe. This approach, which has been central
to the UAE’s ethos since the era of the late Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, and throughout its
civilizational and humanitarian journey, has been reaffirmed by the President of the UAE through the
issuance of this humanitarian amnesty decision for defendants and convicts, underscoring the nation’s dedication to promote tolerance and its adherence to noble human values and principles, as
consistently reflected in many national, regional and international stances, events and occasions.
In their international statement, the organizations commended the UAE for its commitment to
upholding and respecting the right to freedom of expression in accordance with the country’s laws and
regulations, ensuring its protection from any actions or deviations that could jeopardize national
security or harm the state’s interests and international relations. They called upon everyone to respect
states’ national laws, regulations and legislations, emphasizing the importance of adhering to their
legal frameworks and operational policies that align with international human rights law, which
stresses that freedom of expression must not infringe on the rights or reputations of others, nor
compromise national security, public order, public health, or public morals.

The Battle of Kursk, 2024 Edition

Foreign Policy Blogs - jeu, 29/08/2024 - 21:11

Monument to the Largest Tank Battle in History, The Battle of Kursk, showing Heroic Soviet T-34s plowing into German Tiger I tanks at Prokhorovka.

While receiving surprisingly little attention despite its historical significance, Ukraine’s Armed Forces recently took to assaulting over the border with Russia into the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. While the battles in the Kursk region of Russia are currently in play, it looks as if Ukraine has been fairly successful in entering Russia and securing territory over the border.

The historical weight of Kursk in military terms ties into storied invasions in Russian history, the most notable being Napoleon’s invasion of Russia as well as the German invasion of the Soviet Union during the Second World War. During the Second World War, Kursk was stitched into world history as being the largest tank battle to ever take place between two armies, brutal in nature as it was massive. Both invasions would have determined the future existence of Russia and the Soviet Union in their respective eras, but what is notable is that the loss of both invasions would have had severe consequences on the future of the Russian people themselves.

Military actions by Russia to push back into the neighbouring Kharkiv region has put the citizens in Kharkiv back into danger after being liberated by Ukrainian Forces. With losses in Kharkiv and attrition of forces being a detriment to Ukraine, it looks like the risky decision to enter Russian territory was taken as the stalemates in the Kharkiv region could have eventually reversed the fortunes of Ukraine in the medium term.

Since Ukraine has not made their intent public, there is no definitive consensus on the reasons behind Ukraine’s invasion of the Kursk region of Russia. Theories on Ukraine’s motives surround a possible plan to trade land for land, a simple morale boost, or a tactical move to flank hardened Russian lines in Ukraine and limit support structures for Russian Forces. While all of these variables will contribute to Ukraine’s war effort, a cultural explanation might tie all of these factors in together in ending the larger conflict.

A few months ago, Russia’s Wagner Forces took a similar approach and essentially invaded Russia as the rogue armies of old often did in the region. Material losses to Russian Forces and Wagner Brigades were less of a cost as opposed to the attempt to make Russia look unstable and its Government weak. What can be misunderstood in conflicts by Ukraine’s allies is that often the impression of weakness in a Government can be as powerful as the military itself. As stability, power and strength solidify a Government’s support, weakness is a signal of its imminent downfall. The reason why Napoleon’s Invasion and the Battle of Kursk are monumental is because it ties directly into the culture of a strong nation prevailing under difficult circumstances. The idea of strength and the warrior hero is so powerful that leaders who are unable to meet those expectations are as good as finished, and Ukraine or any Russian adversary taking over Kursk will be more than a notable point in the region’s history.

Russia’s big gamble in Ukraine never really considered Russia being invaded itself, even though Russian support for their Government’s actions is born out of the historical reality of every single Soviet citizen being personally affected by the German invasion only a few short generations ago. Generations of Soviet and Russian military doctrine were built around preventing another Nazi genocide of their people, and entire systems of protection (especially the anti-aircraft system networks) were created to repel such an attack. Since the Russia-Ukraine War began, Russia has been losing much of their modern and old Soviet stock, has taken to using drones from a country that designs weapons to commit acts like the Majdal Shams massacre, has been relegated to using dangerous old North Korean artillery stock, and is now having to purchase missile systems from abroad that are a poorer copy of technology invented by Russian scientists. With all of these actions, Russia was unable to prevent a massive terror attack on their own soil and have slowly become the junior partner with China, a country it has a territorial dispute with and have fought a war over previously. What Russia lacks in conventional military capability in 2024, they make up for in nuclear deterrence, but even the TOPOL missile fleet is under the control of a Government that would only look weaker if unhinged.

It should be noted that support for certain regimes is a curious one, as while severe elements in Western countries seemed to ignore the massacre of Majdal Shams on a football field in the middle of the Olympic games, ignore the targeted massacres in Bangladesh, treat the freedom movement in Venezuela like they are the Iranian Women’s movement they gave up on, and generally encourage more strife, people in places like China and Iran are very unlikely to support their young men dying in a war in support of a few old men running their Government. Russia is different as it had popular support for its actions, seen as a projection of strength tied with its historical lessons of protecting Russians at all costs against enemies from abroad. A possible loss of Kursk can change the narrative, and as with many of these current global wars, weakness and anarchy will never be in the public interest. It is so crucial to understand this concept in foreign relations that is should be considered the determining factor for the future existence of a regime, and possibly election victories in the West.

Bangladeshi Dissident Aslam Chowdhury released from prison

Foreign Policy Blogs - mar, 27/08/2024 - 21:10

Bangladeshi dissident Aslam Chowdhury, a prominent human rights and minority rights activist who was in prison for the last eight years, was recently released from prison. Meanwhile, upon hearing the news of his release, hundreds of activists have gathered in front of the Chattogram Central Jail amid the rain to welcome him as he emerged from prison. They welcomed him at the jail gate with flowers. Later, they started for Sitakunda with Aslam Chowdhury by processions with trucks.

The Bangladeshi dissident was imprisoned after 76 political cases were filed against him. He was granted bail in 75 cases, said Aslam Chowdhury’s personal lawyer KM Saiful Islam. Bangladeshi dissident Aslam Chowdhury is a leader of the BNP, who was known for his activities defending the rights of Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh.

He was also an outspoken opponent of Sheikh Hasina, a former Bangladeshi Prime Minister who recently stepped down following student-led protests against her. Presently, the deposed prime minister faces 33 charges including attacking a procession in Sylhet city which left several people shot and injured. The charges against her include 27 for murder, four for crimes against humanity and genocide, and one for abduction.

A number of years ago, Chowdhury was arrested after meeting with Mendi Safadi, who formerly served as Israeli Communication Minister Ayoob Kara’s chief of staff. The Bangladeshi government alleged that he was part of an Israeli plot to topple the Bangladeshi government but Safadi related that the real reason he was arrested was due to his role in the country’s opposition. Bangladesh has no diplomatic relations with Israel and Bangladeshi citizens are barred from visiting the Jewish state. Safadi claimed that the Sheikh Hasina government has been “using violence and murder against ethnic minorities and opponents of the regime for years.”

Shipan Kumer Basu, who leads the World Hindu Struggle Committee, was one of the Hindus that was oppressed by the Sheikh Hasina government. He was imprisoned and tortured under the Sheikh Hasina government: “The Awami League government murdered, tortured, raped, forcefully converted and looted Hindus.” This led Basu to lead an international campaign against the Sheikh Hasina government.

In 2015, Basu met with Safadi and began to work with him towards improving the plight of Hindus in Bangladesh. In 2016, Chowdhury came to India, and met with both Safadi and Basu. It was from India that this trio worked together towards improving the plight of minorities in Bangladesh. In 2017, I was recruited to write about this issue in the American and Israeli media, and the four of us worked so that Bangladesh would have a brighter future.

In an exclusive interview, Basu related: “The main reason Chowdhury was put in jail was because of his activism for Hindu rights. He was protesting against the murder and rape of Hindu women. In 2016, we delivered a letter to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and started to reach out to Israel, so that they would help us. The Sheikh Hasina government turned Bangladesh into a graveyard. But now with Sheikh Hasina deposed and Chowdhury out of jail, we want to start making our country safe for all. We want to build a new Bangladesh where everyone will have equal rights. The new Bangladesh will be secular and progressive, where Muslims, Hindus, Christians and Buddhists can breathe freely.” Basu called on the international community to assist the interim government in establishing freedom in Bangladesh.

Aux États-Unis, la liberté à but lucratif

Le Monde Diplomatique - mar, 27/08/2024 - 18:33
Souvent indispensable pour éviter l'incarcération préventive, la caution représente une manne pour plusieurs acteurs dont les « bail bondsmen », qui se portent garants du paiement auprès des tribunaux. Les assureurs spécialisés dans cette niche réalisent aussi de juteux bénéfices alors que les pressions (...) / , , , , , - 2023/07

Les digues de l'indignation

Le Monde Diplomatique - mar, 27/08/2024 - 15:17
Le 6 juin dernier, alors que Moscou et Kiev se renvoient la responsabilité de la destruction du barrage de Kakhovka, en Ukraine, Bernard-Henri Lévy contre-attaque : « Comme Hitler en 1945, #Putin a une fois de plus utilisé la tactique de la terre brûlée » (Twitter 6 juin). Le Monde se rabat alors sur (...) - 2023/07

Alger préfère Moscou

Le Monde Diplomatique - lun, 26/08/2024 - 17:28
Le 24 mars dernier, l'Algérie et la France tournaient officiellement la page de leur dernière querelle diplomatique en date. Lors d'un entretien téléphonique, les présidents algérien et français affirmaient avoir levé les « incompréhensions » provoquées par la fuite en Tunisie — le 3 février — puis par (...) / , , , - 2023/07

L'envers du miracle sud-coréen

Le Monde Diplomatique - lun, 26/08/2024 - 15:05
Technologie de pointe, tubes de variété fredonnés sur tous les continents, séries à succès, cinéma mondialement reconnu : la Corée du Sud jouit d'une image particulièrement positive. Un peu comme si, dans bien des domaines, Séoul montrait la voie au reste du monde. Découvrir la réalité des conditions de (...) / , , , , , - 2023/07

Des drapeaux et un abattoir

Le Monde Diplomatique - sam, 24/08/2024 - 19:00
Après avoir évacué un blessé vers l'arrière, le petit tailleur de la première section revient avec des nouvelles alarmantes : le poste de secours a été retiré, les routes sont encombrées de colonnes en retraite, officiers et ordonnances ont déserté le parc du château, autant de signes que le mince cordon (...) / , , - 2023/07

Une diplomatie sans diplomates ?

Le Monde Diplomatique - sam, 24/08/2024 - 16:32
« Réfléchir à deux fois avant de ne rien dire. » Cet adage, parmi tant d'autres, à propos des diplomates peut paraître moqueur. Il n'en traduit pas moins les mérites d'un métier indispensable aux relations internationales. En faisant le choix de normaliser cette profession, notamment en banalisant son (...) / , , , - 2023/07

Mythes et réalité de la dette africaine

Le Monde Diplomatique - ven, 23/08/2024 - 18:59
Avant de s'interroger sur la nécessité ou non d'annuler la dette des pays africains, il faudrait en prendre l'exacte mesure dans un contexte de faiblesse des appareils statistiques et de manque de transparence de certains prêteurs bilatéraux, dont la Chine. Une harmonisation des chiffres (...) / , , , , , - 2023/07

Le décivilisateur

Le Monde Diplomatique - ven, 23/08/2024 - 16:44
Dans le monde de la rationalité managériale, la barbarie s'orchestre — et fait carrière. Homo Œconomicus calcule et le symbolique n'entre pas dans ses colonnes chiffrées. En réalité Homo Œconomicus ne s'intéresse qu'à certains calculs et néglige tous les autres. / Société, Idéologie, Économie, Capitalisme (...) / , , , - 2023/07

Steady as Xi Goes? China after the Third Plenum

The National Interest - ven, 23/08/2024 - 07:26

External observers keenly anticipated the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) third plenary session of the twentieth Central Committee. Third plenums—the third plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the CCP elected at the last Party Congress (in this instance in November 2022)—have, in the post-Mao era, traditionally been where the Central Committee issues “authoritative” decisions on the direction of continued “reform and opening” policies.

The July 18 Third Plenum resolution, however, was notable for the fact that it introduced little that was substantively new in terms of policy. Instead, it served to reiterate the Party’s commitment to the hallmarks of Xi’s policy agenda: state-led efforts to gird the economy for self-sufficiency and resilience against external shocks, firm ideological control, and the linkage of national security and “development” as interdependent conditions necessary for China’s continued rise.

Herein may lie the plenum’s significance: to signal that Xi remains firmly in the driver’s seat. 

Some external observers have suggested that this signals the failure of the “China model” or that Xi has “missed” an opportunity for course correction of the Chinese economy. Yet that misreads the fact that for Xi, it is not an either-or-choice between the economy and politics. Rather, they are inextricably connected as Xi seeks to build a new “China model” that is capable of grappling simultaneously with both China’s economic headwinds and “strategic competition” with the United States. 

The plenum resolution thus “unanimously agreed that in the face of a grave and complex international environment,” advancing “reform and development and ensuring stability at home” would be achieved by “promoting high-quality development” and “strengthening full and rigorous [Party] self-governance.”

The emphasis on “high-quality development” spruiked at the plenum had been prefigured by a “study session” of the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) in January, which identified the harnessing of “new qualitative productive forces” as central to the achievement of this goal. “New productive forces” are short-hand for the application of innovation to the cutting-edge “frontier” of technology (e.g., Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing) that will make China self-reliant in the “fourth industrial revolution,” as well as to traditional manufacturing industries. 

This dual emphasis, Evan Feigenbaum suggests, is not only designed to “better insulate China from American strategic pressure” such as the CHIPS Act but also geared to “lock in Chinese dominance of advanced manufacturing and outcompete global rivals in old-fashioned industries like shipbuilding.” Only in this way, the PBSC study session noted, can China succeed in “breaking away from traditional economic growth modes and paths of productive force development.”

That this is not simply tied to “breaking away” from China’s post-1978 growth model but to “strategic competition” was underscored by the communique’s treatment of “national security.” 

Although explicitly identified as “a pivotal foundation for ensuring steady and continued progress in Chinese modernization,” “national security” was framed as interdependent with “high-quality development.” “We must,” the resolution stated, “ensure that high-quality development and greater security reinforce each other, so as to safeguard the country’s long-term stability and security.” 

There are two salient observations to be made here. First, this is consistent with previous statements by Xi that frame the transition to a new economic model as crucial to both continued development and the attainment of “strategic initiative in international competition.” Second, such framing signals the continued securitization of major policy areas in the service of the political security of the CCP under Xi’s leadership. 

Indeed, Xi’s explanatory note on the plenum’s decision demonstrates both dynamics. The section on “national security” underscores the objective of “modernizing” the “national security system” through the establishment of “a unified national population management system” and improvement in “the overall prevention and control system for public security,” as well as noting that the “integration of development and security” will enable the Party-state to improve “Mechanisms for countering foreign sanctions, interference, and long-arm jurisdiction…” (i.e. enable it to overcome U.S.-led economic and diplomatic sanctions). 

The plenum’s commitment to ensure ideological “self-governance” and discipline within the Party is not surprising. However, the tone and substance of that statement, as well as some lengthier associated official explanations of how the plenum’s resolution was arrived at, provide some indication of the nature of contemporary elite politics and decisionmaking. 

The resolution noted that the Party had to “follow the leadership core,” “keep in alignment with the central Party leadership,” “stay confident in the path, theory, system, and culture of socialism with Chinese characteristics,” and “uphold Comrade Xi Jinping’s core position on the Party Central Committee…and the Central Committee’s authority and its centralized, unified leadership.” This is consistent with major ideological directives since the 2022 Party Congress that have sought to consolidate Xi’s role as the fountainhead of political and ideological authority. 

Xi’s explanatory note, however, struck a tone that suggests some level of dissatisfaction with the progress of this project when it stipulated that the plenum’s decision was, in fact, an opportunity for the Party to make a “redeclaration of what banner to hold and what road to take in the new era.”

With respect to policy, Xi’s note implies that some of China’s current problems are the result of poor implementation rather than poor policy. It notes, for example, the need to improve “the institutional mechanisms for preventing and controlling formalism and bureaucracy,” “the mechanism for investigating and dealing with unhealthy trends and corruption at the same time,” and “methods for preventing and controlling new types of corruption and hidden corruption.” 

It appears that China’s former Minister of Defense Li Shangfu, head of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) General Li Yuchao, and chief-of-staff of the PLARF, lieutenant-general Sun Jinming—whose expulsions from the CCP were confirmed in the plenum resolution—likely fell afoul of this ongoing quest to ensure both loyalty and probity amongst top officials.

Finally, as Neil Thomas has highlighted, the official commentary on the “making of the decision of the third plenum” demonstrates that Xi “increasingly discourages internal policy discussions.” Thomas notes that in May, “the plenum drafting team circulated a draft decision to cadres, retired leaders, satellite parties, and policy experts,” from which they subsequently received “1,911 suggestions and made 221 revisions,” while “the drafting team for the 2013 decision received 2,564 suggestions and made 539 revisions, meaning this plenum saw a 25 [percent] fall in suggestions and a near-halving of their acceptance rate from 21 [percent] to 12 [percent].”

The third plenum has thus been significant in demonstrating Xi’s continued hold over the Party and its decisionmaking processes. While that outcome may speak to Xi’s political success in further consolidating his unchallenged position and affirming his preferences across core policy domains, it remains to be seen whether this will help or hinder China’s ability to both solve deep domestic problems and compete with the United States.

Dr. Michael Clarke is a Senior Lecturer in Strategic Studies at the Deakin Centre for Future Defence and National Security at the Australian War College (Canberra) and Adjunct Professor at the Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney. Follow him on LinkedIn and X @meclarke114.

Dr. Jade Guan is a Senior Lecturer in Strategic Studies at the Deakin Centre for Future Defence and National Security at the Australian War College (Canberra). Follow her on LinkedIn and X @JiaAu.

Image: Mirko Kuzmanovic / Shutterstock.com.

Europe’s America Problem

Foreign Affairs - ven, 23/08/2024 - 06:00
Whether Trump wins or loses, the continent needs a new strategy toward the United States.

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