General Plenary Session of Leaders at the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP 30. Credit: Ueslei Marcelino/COP3
By James Alix Michel
VICTORIA, Nov 12 2025 (IPS)
COP30 Brazil, though shadowed by the absence of many world leaders, remains a pivotal milestone in the global fight against climate change, tasked with building on the Paris Agreement’s momentum. Yet the glaring lack of commitment, coupled with withdrawals from the accord, casts a grim shadow over the future. The planet continues to warm, and scientists warn that current targets may not prevent a catastrophic temperature spike. While the summit’s focus on implementation not just new promises—is a welcome shift, it’s clear: words alone won’t cool the Earth.
James Alix Michel
Brazil’s leadership in championing nature-based solutions, like safeguarding the Amazon rainforest, is a beacon of hope. The conference ignited critical discussions on climate finance, adaptation, and resilience for vulnerable nations. The Baku-to-Belem Roadmap’s goal of mobilizing $1.3 trillion annually for developing countries is ambitious but necessary. Yet challenges loom large: wealthy nations’ apathy, geopolitical fractures, and the lingering impact of the U.S. withdrawal from Paris. COP30’s success hinges on action.
The Stakes Are Dire
The IPCC warns: we’re on track for 2.5–3°C warming by 2100 if pledges are not met. This spells ruin: crippling droughts, unlivable cities, mass migration, and ecosystems collapsing. The Amazon, a vital carbon sink, is nearing a ‘tipping point’ of irreversible dieback. Island nations face existential threats. The climate crisis is not a distant threat—it’s here.
Why COP30 Matters
1. Implementation Over Pledges: Past summits yielded lofty goals, but delivery has lagged. COP30 must hold nations accountable. No more empty vows.
2. Climate Finance: Developing countries need predictable funding, not charity. The $100 billion/year promise remains unfulfilled. Wealthy nations must pay their share.
3. Adaptation and Resilience: Frontline communities in Africa, Small Island States, and the Global South can’t wait. Funding for early warnings, flood defenses, and drought-resistant crops isn’t a favor; it’s justice.
4. Global Unity: Geopolitics must not derail progress. The world needs cooperation, not competition.
The Human Cost:
Millions already suffer. Cyclones, wildfires, famine, mass migration, and sea-level rise. This isn’t ‘someday’; it’s now. Indigenous groups, youth activists, and scientists plead: stop debating. Act.
Yet amid the urgency, COP30 saw glimmers. Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva pushed for Amazon protection. African nations demanded reparations for historical emissions. The Global South called for “Equity first.”
The Road Ahead: COP31 and Beyond.
Future summits must:
A Call to Leaders: Pledges Aren’t Leadership
When leaders make commitments, they bind their nations to honor them. Empty promises are not leadership. The world isn’t a battleground for wars—it’s our only home. We’re all in this together. No more excuses. Action isn’t optional.
The clock ticks. The Amazon burns. The oceans rise. We need solutions. And we know what the solutions are. Now we need action.
Let’s choose life. For the planet and for ourselves.
James Alix Michel, Former President Republic of Seychelles, Member Club de Madrid, Founder James Michel Foundation.
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View of a forest in the southern state of Oaxaca, which is one of the most impacted by forest fires in Mexico. Credit: Emilio Godoy / IPS
By Emilio Godoy
MEXICO CITY, Nov 12 2025 (IPS)
“This issue has been spiralling out of control year after year. The first responders are the communities themselves. There is no information explaining what a wildfire is in our native language (Mixtec), not even a pamphlet or video that can be distributed”, indigenous language education student Estela Aranda tells IPS.
The 30-year-old Ayuuk jä’äy (Mixe) student, who is from the Santa Anita community in the Copanatoyac town in the southern state of Guerrero, pointed out that the community doesn’t know how to deal with serious fires because “there has been no guidance from people who know how to handle them”.
In 2024, the community was alarmed by a fire, and there was another one in Tlapa de Comonfort, an adjacent municipality, in March. The first fire “lasted several days and destroyed a lot of vegetation”, says Aranda, whose 1364-people community relies primarily on small-scale livestock farming and growing corn, beans and squash.
“Nature feeds us, guides us and connects us. When it suffers fires, we care for it with great responsibility and all our heart because it is everything to us”, she affirms.
This is a major concern, given that Copanatoyac, located around 350 kilometres south of Mexico City, has experienced an increase in fires since 2023. After three fires consumed 1096 hectares in 2024, two fires ravaged 114 hectares this year in one of the country’s poorest states, which is plagued by violence and ranks fifth in terms of historical burned area.
In surrounding municipalities, meanwhile, the number of fires increased from nine incidents affecting 1535 hectares in 2022 to 12 incidents affecting 1941 hectares in 2025, posing a potential threat due to the risk of flame expansion.
The 2020–2024 Fire Management Programme and regulations on methods for using flames on forest and agricultural land have failed to curb fires, which are intensified by heat and drought — consequences of the climate catastrophe. Added to this is the insufficiency of government resources.
Sight of a forest fire in the southeastern state of Quintana Roo in August 2025
Credit: Conafor
Since 1970, for which official records exist, there have been 397 143 fires, with an average of over 300 000 hectares burned, totalling more than 18 million hectares.
The trend has been upward since 2020, in line with rising temperatures and drought, although there was a decrease in 2025, mainly due to abundant rainfall.
The first responders are the communities themselves. There is no information explaining what a wildfire is in our native language (Mixtec), not even a pamphlet or video that can be distributed
The central state of Mexico, neighbouring Mexico City, has reported the highest cumulative number of fires (88 274), followed by Mexico City itself (45 758) and the western state of Michoacán (44 243).
In terms of affected areas, the western state of Jalisco has suffered the greatest loss (1,67 million hectares), followed by the southern state of Chiapas (1,6 million) and the northern state of Chihuahua (1,56 million).
After three years, the intensity has subsided and the number of fires has dropped to 6824, affecting 1,16 million hectares.
Despite the decrease in the number of fires, the area burned per incident has been rising since 2020, almost tripling from 64 to 172 hectares by October 2025.
Regulations have also failed. The 2023 regulation on fire use in forests, agricultural land and surrounding areas instruct technical and environmental guidelines for controlled burns, but these have been violated, given that one-third of the fires originated from agricultural activities and another third from unknown causes in 2024, a category which also encompasses this possibility.
Similarly, the 2018 General Law on Sustainable Forest Development incorporates fire management in forest areas, addressing their ecological, social and environmental roles within ecosystems, and defining burn prevention, fire use planning and management, and rapid and effective responses to forest fires.
Added to this are the issues of impunity for intentional fires and a weak prevention culture.
The 2020–2024 Fire Management Programme consisted of 15 strategies, five of which were related to flames, and two of which were related to prevention and agricultural fire management measures. These measures were ineffective.
This issue is further compounded by the fact that Conafor itself acknowledges that the area affected by fires largely corresponds to fire-dependent ecosystems.
While fires have intensified, Conafor has eliminated direct firefighting support since 2020, forcing forest communities to include land clearing and firebreak installation tasks under other categories.
Despite forest-fires’ high incidence, Conafor has also suffered severe budget cuts. While allocated funds totalled $573 million in 2014, this year they fell to $133 million — one quarter of that amount. Although the budget had been rising since 2022, it fell again this year.
In response to IPS enquiries, Conafor attributes the fires to the impacts of climate catastrophe and places responsibility with states and municipalities.
“Fire management policy is based on strengthening inter-institutional coordination at all levels, as well as on the distribution of responsibilities, where municipal and state governments play a leading role given that they must operate their own fire management programmes within their respective territorial jurisdictions”, the agency states.
It also indicates that 1700 firefighters are employed, and that 266 fire brigades are subsidised, as well as regulations on controlled burns being disseminated.
Brigades from the government’s National Forestry Commission fight a fire in a forested area in the northern state of Chihuahua in May of this year. That territory has experienced the third highest number of fires in Mexico since 1970.
Credit: Conafor
Guerrero is not an exceptional case. Neighbouring Oaxaca experiences a similar situation.
Juan Reyes, an indigenous Zapotec, knows well what it means to face forest fires from his experience as a municipal official and as a resident of at-risk communities.
“The fires were very intense; we couldn’t handle them, even with all our personnel. The authorities didn’t respond; the state government didn’t respond either. Things went badly for us. People became alarmed later when the fire spread and burned more hectares”, the elementary school teacher recalls to IPS in Las Cuevas, in the Oaxacan municipality of Santo Domingo de Morelos.
Reyes, who is 39 years old, is married and has two children, served as the councilman for Public Works between 2020 and 2022, and has also witnessed the impact of fire on his community since then. The village is home to around 1000 people, and the main crops grown there are hibiscus, mango, watermelon, melon, papaya and tamarind.
The village experienced the heat firsthand. “We had no knowledge of anything until, after three or four days and several calls from the mayor and the council, they finally responded. Conafor sent a small team. They called more people, and we organised and put in the firebreak”, he evokes.
However, the fire had already burned through four or five hectares and was threatening two other communities. “It lasted eight days, and we put it out”, he assures.
For hundreds of Mexican communities, the problem isn’t limited to the flames but begins with a lack of timely and culturally appropriate information and training. A combination of the consequences of climate catastrophe and government omissions has fuelled them.
Reyes, a corn farmer, summed it up: information is lacking. “This happens every year. They should send information so people can be careful”, he says.
As in Copanatoyac, fires in surrounding towns threaten these communities. For example, two fires consumed 45 hectares in an adjacent municipality in 2022. The following year, none occurred; however, four fires ravaged 214 hectares in 2024. This year, three fires burned 120 hectares.
Communities, set aside
Diego Pérez, an academic at the Institute of Ecosystem and Sustainability Research at the public National Autonomous University of Mexico, questions the fire management scheme.
He says that communities are very aware of their environment and know how to conduct agricultural burns and control escapes. “Many people in rural areas are better prepared to deal with these issues. However, Mexican legislation works the other way around, as it is the owner or the community who must handle it. If they are overwhelmed, they must ask the municipality, the state and finally the federation for help”, he tells IPS.
In contrast, Conafor has adopted a reductionist approach, acting as a “fire department”. “What’s happening is that fires are coming back with more force. There’s negative public perception of fire”, he emphasises.
Monitoring and prevention involve improved monitoring through satellite technology, which Conafor already uses, as well as improved fire management practices, and greater community awareness and preparedness programmes, which are still pending.
Reyes remembers the lessons of his father and grandfather. “What is most urgent is to inform, not burn cleared lands, rescue older strategies. We have become very aware that the swiddens should not be burned and if they do, the elderly people have their strategies”, he explains.
He describes that they should clean around the land and not burn from the stream to the hill, but rather from the top of the hill downwards, because the stream cuts it. There shouldn’t be burns when there is a lot of wind, but rather after four in the afternoon.
In the face of a worsening climate catastrophe, affected communities are calling for greater attention from Conafor.
“As responsible institutions, it would be good if they organised training workshops on this problem that communities face year after year. They should also reforest these spaces and provide communities with information on how, where and why to prevent fires. There’s a lot of nature loss”, pleads Aranda.
Researcher Pérez proposes research and support in forest habitat management, fostering knowledge and good practices while recognising regional differences, and recovering traditional knowledge. He also suggests providing communities with the means to manage their ecosystems.
“There’s a lot of work to be done, and it’s not just about fires. It’s about paying the debt that has existed with rural areas. They know that some fires are necessary to remove fuel from the forest. A restoration regime for the fire regime is required — it must be communicated and worked on with communities. The conception of what Conafor can do must be reconsidered”, he recommends.
IPS produced this article with support from the Global Landscapes Forum.
The translation from the original article in Spanish involved the use of AI tools.
Ibrahim Olabi, Permanent Representative of the Syrian Arab Republic to the United Nations, addresses the Security Council meeting on the situation in Syria. Credit: UN Photo/Evan Schneider
By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Nov 12 2025 (IPS)
Eleven months after the fall of the Assad regime, Syria continues to grapple with severe instability as the country navigates a turbulent political transition. Rates of displacement have surged, and humanitarian organizations are struggling to support large numbers of refugees returning home. In recent weeks, the United Nations (UN) has documented numerous cases of enforced disappearances and abductions, calling for stronger accountability measures as the transition continues to unfold.
The ongoing displacement crisis at the Syrian borders was detailed in the latest regional flash update from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). According to the update, roughly seven million civilians remain displaced within Syria, while more than 1.9 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) have returned home, with roughly half of them departing from IDP sites in northern Syria.
As of November 6, UNHCR has recorded approximately 1,208,802 Syrians having crossed back into Syria from bordering nations since December 8, 2024. The majority of these returnees are projected to have departed from Türkiye, with UNHCR recording roughly 550,000 Syrian returnees in the past year.
Additionally, roughly 362,027 have been recorded returning to Syria from Lebanon. Smaller numbers of returnees have been recorded returning from Jordan, Iraq, Egypt, and afar. Currently, it is estimated that at least 1,476 Syrians have participated in the repatriation programme organized by UNHCR, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the General Security Office (GSO).
Both internally displaced Syrians and those returning home continue to endure harsh living conditions, compounded by severe shortages of humanitarian supplies. UNHCR notes that additional funding is urgently required to facilitate an effective political transition for civilians, with the agency recording widespread destruction to homes, an overwhelming lack of employment opportunities, and shrinking availability of access to basic services.
Aid operations are increasingly strained, struggling to keep pace with the growing scale of needs across the country. Winterization efforts are underway as harsh temperatures are projected to exacerbate already dire living conditions. UNHCR estimates that reduced funding threatens to leave roughly 750,000 Syrian refugees without winter assistance.
“Humanitarian budgets are stretched to breaking point and the winter support that we offer will be much less this year,” said Dominique Hyde, UNHCR’s Director of External Relations. “Families will have to endure freezing temperatures without things many of us take for granted: a proper roof, insulation, heating, blankets, warm clothes or medicine.”
UNHCR chief Filippo Grandi has urged the international community, the private sector, and Syrian communities to “come together and intensify their efforts to support recovery”, to ensure that returns are dignified and sustainable. “With renewed commitment, the international community can help preserve hope and support stability and durable solutions for one of the largest refugee situations of our time,” said Grandi.
To support displaced Syrian families ahead of the harsh winter season, UNHCR has scaled up its winterization response across Syria, supplying over 17,000 displaced and returnee families with essential non-food items. The agency delivered winter kits with essential winter supplies such as blankets, heaters, mattresses, and warm clothing in Aleppo, Hama, Dar’a, Quneitra, Homs, Qamishli, Sweida, and rural Damascus.
“Our teams are on the ground, determined to protect refugees from the cold, but we are running out of time and resources,” added Hyde. “We need more funding to help make many lives slightly more tolerable.” UNHCR aims to raise at least $35 million to repair damaged homes, insulate shelters, and provide warmth, blankets, and other essentials for children and the elderly, along with funding for medicines and hot meals.
To help meet the most urgent needs, UNHCR has continued distributing support through its Return and Reintegration Financial Assistance programme, providing critical financial aid to more than 45,000 returnees. Additionally, over 24,500 returnees have been supported at key border crossings with Türkiye and Lebanon over the course of this year, with UNHCR and its partners continuing to monitor civilian movement and welfare through home visits and referrals to lifesaving services.
Despite these efforts, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has underscored growing insecurity in Syria, marked by “worrying reports” of continued enforced disappearances and abductions. On November 7, OHCHR spokesperson Thameen Al-Keetan informed reporters in Geneva that at least 97 people have been abducted since the beginning of the year, adding to the more than 100,000 individuals who went missing during the five decade rule of the Assad regime.
Karla Quintana, the Head of the Independent Institution on Missing Persons in the Syrian Arab Republic (IIMP), added that “everyone in Syria knows someone who has gone missing”. OHCHR also highlights the disappearance of Hamza Al-Amarin, a volunteer with the Syria Civil Defense, who went missing in July of this year while assisting with a humanitarian evacuation mission in Sweida. OHCHR and its partners continue to urge for strengthened accountability measures and the protection of all humanitarian personnel.
“We stress that all armed actors – both exercising State power and otherwise – must respect and protect humanitarian workers at all times, everywhere, as required by international human rights law and applicable humanitarian law,” said Al-Keetan. “Accountability and justice for all human rights violations and abuses, past and present, are essential for Syria to build a durable, peaceful and secure future for all its people.”
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CTBTO Executive Secretary Robert Floyd addressing staff, Vienna International Centre, Vienna, Austria, 2023. Credit: CTBTO Preparatory Commission
By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Nov 12 2025 (IPS)
The US took another step backward –to break ranks with the United Nations– when it voted against a draft resolution calling for the entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
The negative vote followed an announcement by President Trump last month that the US plans to resume nuclear testing after a 33-year hiatus. The US stood alone on the UN vote, which was supported by almost all member States in the General Assembly’s First Committee.
The resolution was adopted by an overwhelming majority: with 168 votes in favor, with one against (United States) and 3 abstentions (India, Mauritius, Syria).
During Trump’s first term, the US abstained on the vote. And in other years they had been voting in favour.
Jackie Cabasso, Executive Director, Western States Legal Foundation, which monitors and analyzes U.S. nuclear weapons programs and policies, told IPS the chaos and uncertainty arose from Trump’s factually-challenged social media post that “because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis.”
The U.S. government’s first ever “No” vote, on the annual UN resolution in support of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), raises further troubling questions about U.S. intentions.
Trump did not specify whether he meant explosive nuclear testing, missile tests, or something else. Russia and China are not conducting explosive nuclear tests, so the U.S. has no basis to respond in kind. They are conducting missile tests, but so is the United States, Cabasso pointed out.
In fact, she said, the U.S. conducted a “routine” test of an unarmed Intercontinental Ballistic Missile on November 5. The Department of Defense (now, Department of War) is responsible for missile tests, but it is the Department of Energy that is responsible for preparation for explosive nuclear testing.
Trump’s announcement was followed by mixed signals.
On November 2, Energy Secretary Chris Wright sought to explain Trump’s post when he told Fox News “I think the tests we’re talking about right now are system tests. These are not nuclear explosions. These are what we call non-critical explosions.”
The headline in a New York Times article was dead on target: Trump pushes Tests with a Nuclear Bang: A Top Aide Says Non-nuclear”.
The waters were further muddied, said Cabasso, by Trump’s unsubstantiated allegations in an interview with 60 Minutes (recorded October 31 but aired November 2) that Russia and China have been secretly conducting explosive nuclear tests deep underground.
In a written statement explaining its General Assembly vote, the U.S. – the only country to cast a No vote – stated, “The United States voted No…. because several paragraphs are inconsistent with U.S. policy or are undergoing policy review…. The United States is not currently pursuing CTBT ratification and therefore cannot support calls for ratification and entry into force.”
Of the other nuclear-armed states, the Russian Federation, China, France, United Kingdom, Israel, and Pakistan voted Yes. India abstained, and North Korea did not vote. Thus, the United States distinguished itself as a “rogue” nuclear armed State.
Jonathan Granoff, President, Global Security Institute, told IPS “calling the statement dumb and dumber does not further the argument that such a resumption of nuclear weapons testing would be contrary to promises made to induce indefinite extension of the NPT, justify further more sophisticated weapons developments in violation of the good faith duties to pursue disarmament under the NPT, end the US advantage of knowing more because it has tested more, upgrade the salience of the use and threat of use of nuclear weapons as legitimate tools of communication amongst nations, lead to increased spending on developing weapons which destroy the user as well as adversaries if used, and stimulate greater international fear and instability.“
“We critically need to develop trust and cooperation to, inter alia, protect the oceans and the climate, end the scourge of corruption stealing between two and four trillion from the world’s productive economies, stop the creation and production of new and even more dangerous weapons as we amplify adversity, ignore preparation for the inevitable next pandemic, eliminate poverty and generally pursue the sanity of human security rather than perpetual instability and the dangerous belief that by madness, mistakes by machines or humans, or design we will not lead ourselves into destroying civilization through the use of these horrific devices,” he said.
Elaborating further, Cabasso pointed out that under the 1980 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, a State is obliged to refrain from acts which would defeat the object and purpose of a treaty when it has signed the treaty.
The United States, Russia and China have all signed but not ratified the CTBT. Russia withdrew its ratification in 2023 to maintain parity with the U.S. The three countries moratoria on nuclear explosive testing until now are consistent with the intent of the CTBT, but Trump’s statements and the U.S. vote in the General Assembly call this commitment into question.
Indicating just how dangerous and uncertain this situation is, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in response, has ordered officials to draft proposals for a possible test of nuclear weapons.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was quoted in TASS, saying “In order to come to a conclusion about the advisability of beginning preparations for such tests, it will take exactly as much time as it takes for us to fully understand the intentions of the United States of America.”
“As we continue to advocate for nuclear risk reduction and the global elimination of nuclear weapons”, said Cabasso, “we must remain vigilant that the option of explosive nuclear weapons testing remains off the table”.
The United States should reverse course, commit to a permanent cessation of explosive nuclear weapons testing, ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and invite other nuclear armed states to follow suit. This would be a huge contribution to long term prospects for international peace and security, she declared.
According to the Washington-based Arms Control Association (ACA), if the United States resumes its nuclear testing, other countries, such as Russia, North Korea, and perhaps China, will likely follow suit, escalating the nuclear arms race, and increasing global tensions.
In response to Trump’s rhetoric, Representative. Dina Titus (Democrat-Nevada.) has introduced the Renewing Efforts to Suspend Testing and Reinforce Arms Control Initiatives Now (RESTRAIN) Act (H.R. 5894) which creates “a prohibition of explosive nuclear testing while simultaneously preventing any funding from going toward the Trump Administration’s effort to conduct explosive nuclear tests.”
And Senator Ed Markey (Democrat-Massachusetts) has introduced companion legislation in the Senate as the No Nuclear Testing Act (S. 3090) to block renewed testing and has called on the Senate to approve ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
In its appeal, ACA says: “We encourage you to reach out to your Member of Congress this week and tell them to block the resumption of nuclear explosive testing including by co-sponsoring the “RESTRAIN Act” and “No Nuclear Testing Act.”
ACA has been at the forefront of the effort to halt nuclear weapons testing for decades.
“Since Trump’s call for renewed nuclear testing, we have flown into action to get our message out, to rally Congressional opposition, to organize with other civil society organizations, and mobilize international opposition to the resumption of nuclear testing by any nation.”
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Credit: UNICEF/Ulet Ifansasti
By Ian Gary
WASHINGTON DC, Nov 12 2025 (IPS)
The climate crisis is getting worse and requires fundamental changes to societies, economies, and our global financial architecture in response. While extreme economic inequality is on the rise – the world’s billionaires now hold more wealth in the world than every country except the U.S. and China – the impacts of climate change are also unequally felt, with the poor in the Global South and North most at risk.
This month there will be two important UN events focused on addressing the climate crisis and global financial architecture. One event – the 30th UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP30) – will overwhelm the Brazilian city of Belém and attract the media spotlight.
On another continent, in Nairobi, a UN event starting on the same day will get far less attention but is designed to advance an issue which must be central to the climate crisis response – global tax justice.
Starting November 10th, negotiators from member states, along with civil society organizations have sought to influence the process, are holding a formal negotiation session for a planned UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation.
There is a strange irony in the fact that two major UN meetings on climate and tax are happening at the same time, thousands of miles away. On the road to Belém, many stories will be written about how Global North countries are failing to meet their commitments to provide billions of dollars in “climate finance” to help Global South countries invest in projects – such as flood defense – to adapt to the realities of climate change.
Rarely mentioned, though, is the need to look beyond aid to the system of global tax rules which starve Global South countries of the resources they need. A report last week from the UN Environment Program (UNEP) said that developed nations provided only $26 billion in “international adaptation finance” to developing countries, far short of the $40 billion a year committed at the Glasgow COP in 2021. Meanwhile, the same report pegs adaptation costs at $310 billion-$365 billion per year by the mid-2030s. Strangely, the UNEP report is completely silent on the need to reform global tax rules to increase the fiscal space to make realizing climate finance commitments possible.
Global tax justice must be advanced to fill the “yawning gap” highlighted by the UNEP between what has been committed and what is needed to deal with the climate crisis. The OECD has said that countries suffer $100-240 billion in lost revenue annually from profit shifting by multinational corporations.
A significant portion of that is lost by Global South countries. If these “lost” funds were recovered through changes in global tax rules, the resources could dwarf the paltry sums being provided by the Global North.
Given that major Global North donors are slashing their aid budgets or closing their aid programs entirely (see the shuttering of USAID), we must now approach the climate finance debate with a “post-aid” lens. The ritualistic annual highlighting of the failure of Global North countries to meet the climate finance commitments must be supplemented by growing demands for global tax justice, ensuring global tax systems enable countries to tax economic activity where it takes place.
Fair and progressive taxation must be part of the post-aid landscape, particularly to support the ability of Global South countries to respond to the climate crisis with their own financial resources.
While thousands of activists descending on Belém, a hardy band of a few dozen civil society groups, organized by the Global Alliance for Tax Justice, will be engaging the UN tax negotiation process in Nairobi. New and effective rules to ensure that multinational companies pay their fair share – including those companies most directly driving the climate crisis – are desperately needed.
Beyond closing tax loopholes, countries need to remove the tax subsidies that incentivize fossil fuel production. In the US, recent research by the FACT Coalition found that American taxpayers are effectively subsidizing oil drilling abroad.
Other research has found that tax and other subsidies may make some future oil and gas projects appear economically viable when, without these breaks, they aren’t.
Fortunately, some conversations are starting to bridge the climate and tax divide, with campaigners in both camps increasingly understanding that the global climate movement needs tax justice to win. Last month, academics and activists convened in Brazil for a policy research conference, with organizers stating that the “convergence of climate justice and tax reform is an ethical, political, and economic imperative.”
Foreign aid won’t come to the rescue, and the private sector won’t invest in climate adaptation at scale because of mismatched incentives. After the dust settles in Belém and Nairobi, governments, international organizations, and activists must find new ways to bring the climate and tax conversations together to tackle global inequality and the climate crisis. It will be a win for people and the planet.
Ian Gary is the Executive Director of the Financial Accountability & Corporate Transparency (FACT) Coalition
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