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The conflict in Ukraine has introduced drone warfare at an unprecedented scale. There is a constant buzzing of drones of all sizes above the battlefield in Ukraine as both sides are using unmanned aerial systems in great numbers.

Drones have become so important throughout the war that the Ukrainian military has established a separate drone service to control and coordinate the employment of the weapon systems. And now, the Russian military is following suit and is trying to centralize command and control of its drone forces in order to maximize effectiveness. However, although logical, that move might have the opposite effect.

Russian drones

The Russian military is trying to centralize command and control of drone units. But that might not have the desirable tactical effect.

“The Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) efforts to centralize control over informal Russian drone operation units may degrade the effectiveness of Russian drone capabilities,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the conflict.

The Russian military has a tendency to centralize its capabilities. But that can easily put bureaucracy in front of efficiency on the battlefield and cost lives. Moreover, the Russian military is taking precious drone operators from support units and is assigning them to line infantry units that conduct human-wave attacks against the Ukrainian positions. In that way, experienced drone operators are killed in senseless World War I-style attacks, thereby depriving the Russian forces of their capabilities.

Russian military bloggers are already making a noise about the “redeployment” of drone operators in infantry tasks, highlighting the tactical and strategic shortcomings.

Although suicide drones, or one-way attack drones or loitering munitions, are the “sexiest” drones because they have a direct impact on the enemy and the course of the fighting, they only account for a very small number of the drones operating in the war. Most of the drones are used for artillery fire support and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Through drones, commanders now have a literal picture of the battlefield as opposed to an imagined one on a map based on reports.

The Ukrainian way of drones

The Ukrainian military is truly a pioneer in drone warfare. It has created a dedicated service for drones and has brought every pertinent party, from drone operators on the contact line to drone manufacturers to software engineers, together to work closely and improve their effectiveness. The different stakeholders work together to refine capabilities and use data from previous missions to improve. It is delicate work that involves thousands of personnel on the contact line and the rear. But that is the way to win

Indeed, the way the Ukrainian military is treating its drone capabilities resembles the way the U.S. military tackled the terrorism problem during the war in Iraq when it created an industrial counterterrorism machine centered around the Joint Special Operations Command.

Although not new, drone warfare has truly come of age in the war in Ukraine, and the lessons are plenty.

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

Image: Shutterstock.

Lors de la réunion du gouvernement, qui a eu lieu aujourd’hui, mercredi 25 décembre 2024, présidée par le premier ministre, Nadir Larbaoui, un projet de […]

L’article Bonne nouvelle pour les femmes actives : vers la prolongation du congé de maternité en 2025 est apparu en premier sur .

There is often no peace on Earth for those who serve in the military during wartime. That is sadly true for U.S. military personnel deployed to the Middle East—as there remains a threat they could come under attack even on Christmas. However, since the country's earliest days, Americans in uniform have risked life and limb for their nation, knowing that war doesn't stop for the holidays.

This is a tradition that dates back to the American Revolution.

Washington Crossing the Delaware

Every school child knows—or at least should know unless they stopped teaching such things—that in 1776, General George Washington famously crossed the Delaware River on Christmas and surprised the British forces at Trenton.

There are a few key details to understand about this event.

First, it was very much true that the Continental Army had suffered a number of defeats in the early stages of the American Revolution and the cause looked bleak as winter set in. Washington desperately needed to rally the troops and restore hope. Thus, General Washington devised a plan to conduct a raid on Trenton, New Jersey, where a unit of Hessian troops was stationed. These were actually German troops, essentially the mercenaries or private military contractors of the day, who had been hired by the British to bolster their ranks in the American colonies.

What is incorrect in most tellings of the story is that Washington struck on Christmas Day. In fact, Washington made the crossing on Christmas evening, catching the Hessians after their holiday celebrations and not on Christmas morning.

It is also important to note that Christmas was a minor holiday for the American colonists at that point, yet it was often a rowdy affair for the Germans. Washington's troops essentially caught the Hessians in a state of post-celebration slumber and most of them surrendered within an hour and a half.

The raid, which became known as the Battle of Trenton, proved to be as much a propaganda victory as a strategic success. It raised the spirits of Washington's troops and more importantly, revived the hope of the American colonists.

However, it almost didn't work out. Only one of the three planned river crossings was successful and even worse, spies and deserters had informed the British that an attack was planned. Fortunately, the Hessian commander, Col. Johann Rall, dismissed that there was any threat.

As for the famous painting by Emanuel Leutze—it is pure nonsense. It was almost pitch dark, and Washington didn't stand at the bow of the boat in a historic pose. Leutze completed work on the painting almost eighty years after the famous event, and he based it on the river Rhine, not on the Delaware. The German river is far wider than what Washington had to endure on that still very cold evening.

One part of the story not quite suitable for children is that Washington is recorded to have told the portly General Henry Knox, who was already seated on one side, "Shift that fat ass Henry… but slowly, or you'll swamp the damned boat."

In a final Christmas connection to the American Revolution, it should be noted that a legend tells that following the British defeat at the Battle of Yorktown in 1781, the British Army band under Lord Cornwallis played the tune "The World Turned Upside Down." Many history books still propagate the story, though it only first appeared about a century after the surrender. What those books fail to note is that the English ballad was first published in the 1640s as a protest against the policies of Parliament that banned the celebration of Christmas—and it was hardly considered a military march at the time.

The American Civil War and Christmas

Given that the American Civil War was one described as pitting brother against brother, it is not surprising that the conflict saw numerous engagements at Christmas time—but not like children fighting over a new toy.

The most significant was at Fredericksburg, Dec 11-15, 1862—which was also arguably the most one-sided battle in the war, and a major Confederate victory. Another battle two years later proved to be a major debacle for the Union. That was the First Battle of Fort Fisher, which Union forces tried to take beginning on Christmas Eve 1864. The battle continued until December 27, when Union Major Benjamin Butler declared the fort to be impregnable.

However, that same year, General William Tecumseh Sherman said he had a Christmas gift for President Abraham Lincoln—the city of Savannah, Georgia, which was captured on December 22.

What is also important to note is that Christmas had a different meaning depending on where the soldiers may have been from. By the 1860s, the South tended to celebrate the holiday, while Christmas celebrations were seen as an unnecessary expense in Massachusetts. In reality, Christmas didn't actually become an official Federal holiday until 1870 when President Ulysses S. Grant made it so as an attempt to unite north and south.

The Battle of the Bulge

Being away from family is never easy for military personnel during the holidays, but it was even worse for the American soldiers who were surrounded by the German military during the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944. Just a week before Christmas, the Germans launched the largest counteroffensive in the war in the war.

The fighting has been described as intense, without accounts that the snow literally turned red with blood—and there is even a tragic account of a young American nurse whose body was delivered home swaddled in parachute cloth. The battle lasted six weeks and finally came to its apex during the Siege of Bastogne, which began on December 20.

There are accounts of small "Christmas Truces" that occurred, and by some accounts, it was a season of miracles as the determined U.S. forces successfully held out against repeated German attacks. It also wasn't until January 28 that the battle ended in a German failure. Yet, the "Bulge" was still the largest and bloodiest single battle fought by the United States, with some 19,000 killed. It was also the third-deadliest campaign in American history.

The 11 Days of Christmas: Operation Linebacker II

It was fifty years ago this month, during the Vietnam War, that the United States launched the largest aerial bombing campaign in military history. Known officially as Operation Linebacker II, a follow-up to the Operation Linebacker air interdiction campaign, it was designed to be a "maximum effort" bombing campaign that would destroy major target complexes in Hanoi and Haiphong.

Ordered by President Richard Nixon, it was also the largest heavy bomber strike launched by the U.S. military since World War II. Taking part from December 18 to 29, it earned the nickname "the 11 Days of Christmas," and involved some 207 B-52 Stratofortress bombers along with nearly 2,000 tactical aircraft—with the bombers taking off from and returning to Andersen Air Force Base (AFB), Guam.

The only day that both sides received any reprieve was Christmas Day when American troops were given a thirty-six-hour break to celebrate the holiday. During that brief interlude, Nixon called upon the North Vietnamese to return to the bargaining table, which they initially refused to do. Only when Hanoi agreed to resume peace talks did the bombing campaign come to an end.

During those eleven days, U.S. aircraft dropped 15,000 tons of bombs during 729 U.S. Air Force sorties that involved some 12,000 airmen. According to United States Department of Defense figures, the raid destroyed or damaged 1,600 structures, 500 rail targets, and ten airfields; while 80 percent of North Vietnam's electric-generating capacity was impacted by the Linebacker II campaign.

It was a costly endeavor for the Americans as well.

Sixteen B-52s were shot down, four more suffered heavy damage, and five others suffered medium damage, while a dozen U.S. tactical aircraft also fell victim to enemy fire. A total of forty-three American personnel were killed and forty-nine more were taken prisoner. The United States claimed that six MiG-21s were also shot down, while North Vietnam reported that 1,624 civilians were killed.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Image Credit: Shutterstock.

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When President Donald Trump returns to the White House, most expect he’ll give Israel a long leash to do as it sees fit in the Middle East. However, that expectation could be tested and might prove to be wrong altogether. It is clear enough that Trump cannot stand it when allies defy him the way Israel has defied President Joe Biden on bringing about a ceasefire and a hostage deal since October 7, 2023. Furthermore, if Tel Aviv’s ongoing regional aggression embarrasses Trump by scuttling his ambitious plans to bring peace to the Middle East, Trump’s frustrations will likely boil over into a bid to reign Israel in. 

The big question, then, is: how can he do that? The answer lies in changing the structure of the U.S.-Israeli alliance, namely by making it more ambiguous. A strategically ambiguous alliance will benefit both Israel and the United States. It will ensure Israeli defenses against regional foes, temper Israeli adventurism, and provide the foundation for expanding the Abraham Accords, which Trump is especially keen to do.

A phenomenon that political scientists call “moral hazard” lies at the heart of the troubles that Trump (like Biden) is almost certain to face with Israel. Moral hazard tends to emerge when a great power makes a robust security pledge to a revisionist ally, meaning a state that is desperate to fix its security problems and/or alter the prevailing security order. Protection by the great power shields the ally from the consequences of its actions, making it more risk-acceptant and less responsive to the great power’s demands. On the hook to bail out the ally when trouble comes, the great power finds that its security costs rise to unsustainable levels.

Since October 7, 2023, moral hazard has left Washington at the mercy of its junior partner, Israel. Backed by Washington’s “ironclad” security commitment to Israel and massive supplies of U.S. weapons, Israeli leaders openly boast about manipulating the United States. “The U.S. has our back,” Netanyahu said confidently in July. Resting on that assurance, Israel has largely ignored Washington as it has barreled forward, repeatedly undercutting the kinds of efforts at peace Trump wants to see in the Middle East. According to one expert, Israel is telling Washington that the war in Gaza will end “on our terms and timeline. Not yours.”

The record bears this out. In early July, Biden pressed Netanyahu to negotiate. Tel Aviv instead hardened its negotiating terms, launched airstrikes in Lebanon and Gaza, and assassinated Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh.

The same story prevailed in September and October. Biden pushed a “take it or leave it” ceasefire. Israel rejected it and then dramatically expanded the war through pager strikes in Lebanon and the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Getting Israeli cooperation is “like pulling teeth,” said one U.S. official.

The price tag for Israeli moral hazard has been high. Since October 7, the United States has spent $26 billion defending Israel; strains on U.S. weapons stockpiles have grown due to historic levels of shipments to Israel; and three U.S. service members have died, with another 183 injured.

Israel’s gains against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran have emboldened Israel in ways that could scuttle Trump’s plans for de-escalating regional conflicts and reducing U.S. security costs. In fact, Trump’s election appears set to make Israel’s moral hazard worse, not better. Israeli leaders anticipate Trump “will support their country unconditionally,” a belief reinforced by the pro-Israel bent of Trump appointees. Despite Trump saying he wants a Gaza ceasefire before inauguration day, Israel helped kill ceasefire talks just after Trump’s election and seems largely unchanged in its position on current negotiations. Likewise, Israel’s post-Assad invasion of Syria belies Trump’s stated wishes that Syrians work out their future alone, without outside interference.

If moral hazard remains a problem going forward, Trump should do what Biden lacked the foresight or courage to do and add strategic ambiguity to the partnership with Israel. This would start by replacing the “ironclad” commitment with an explicit pledge whereby the United States “reserves the right,” as with Taiwan, to defend Israel at Washington’s choosing on a case-by-case basis. Also, as with Taiwan, Trump could pare back the supply of offensive military hardware to Israel and send mostly defensive supplies instead (Washington is Israel’s main arms supplier). A progressive drawdown of U.S. forces sent to protect Israel would help signal ambiguity, too.

Some might call this abandonment. It’s not. The United States never abandoned Taiwan with its policy of strategic ambiguity. Taiwan remains a close U.S. partner in Asia and has been shielded by U.S. power from Chinese attacks for more than seven decades. The same would go for Israel in the Middle East.

Ambiguity will help reduce moral hazards (as in the past with Taiwan) by making Israel bear, or think it will bear, more of the costs of its own security. Consequently, Israel will need to take diplomacy more seriously, giving Trump more leverage to de-escalate conflict and shift attention away from the Middle East. With bigger problems elsewhere in Asia, this course is what U.S. interests dictate. 

C. William “Will” Walldorf, Jr. is an Associate Professor and Shivley Family Faculty Fellow at Wake Forest University, as well as a Non-Resident Fellow at Defense Priorities. He is the author most recently of To Shape Our World For Good: Master Narratives and Regime Change in U.S. Foreign Policy, 1900-2011. Will is currently writing a book titled America’s Forever Wars: Why So Long, Why End Now, What Comes Next that, among other things, develops a comprehensive model for over-the-horizon counterterrorism for the current era.

Image: Noam Galai / Shutterstock.com. 

L'archevêque de Paris Laurent Ulrich doit présider mercredi matin la messe du jour de Noël à Notre-Dame de Paris, en fête pour la première fois depuis l'incendie de 2019. Sujet France 2.

The word “Typhoon” means different things to different people. Besides the actual natural disaster, old-school WWE fans may remember Typhoon (real name Fred Otto), the professional wrestler who teamed up with the late Earthquake (real name John Tenta; June 22, 1963-June 7, 2006) to form the tag team known as The Natural Disasters, who briefly held the WWF World Tag Team Championship back in 1992.

Meanwhile, since a typhoon is a natural disaster of the aerial variety, it should come as no surprise that more than one military warplane has borne the Typhoon moniker. During World War II, there was Great Britain’s Hawker Typhoon, a piston-engine, prop-driven Royal Air Force (RAF) fighter-bomber that, among other things, performed devastating rocket attacks against German radar stations along the coast and strafing attacks against Nazi German Wehrmacht infantry and armor columns during the D-Day campaign. Fast forward to the present day, and you have the multinational twin-engine, supersonic, canard delta wing, multirole 4.5-generation jet fighter known as the Eurofighter Typhoon. Let us now say “Hello/Bonsoir/Guten Tag/Buona Sera” to this remarkable warbird.

Eurofighter Typhoon initial history and specifications

Manufactured by a consortium of France’s Airbus (that famous maker of civilian airlines is also involved in military aircraft manufacturing), Britain’s BAE Systems, and Italy’s Leonardo—all, in turn, working through a joint holding company known as Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug GmbH—this Typhoon made her maiden flight on March 27, 1994, which, according to the BBC, was “two years later than expected”; however, for the sake of fairness and balance, that same BBC report reported that this “troubled” warbird nonetheless “successfully completed airborne system and handling checks in a 40-minute flight at Manching in Germany.”

According to the official RAF info page on the Typhoon:

“The Typhoon FGR.Mk 4 is a highly capable and extremely agile multi-role combat aircraft, capable of being deployed for the full spectrum of air operations, including air policing, peace support and high-intensity conflict. Initially deployed in the air-to-air role as the Typhoon F.Mk 2, the aircraft now has a potent, precision multi-role capability as the FGR4. The pilot performs many essential functions through the aircraft’s hands on throttle and stick (HOTAS) interface which, combined with an advanced cockpit and the Helmet Equipment Assembly (HEA), renders Typhoon superbly equipped for all aspects of air operations.”

The warbird has the following specifications and vital stats:

• Fuselage Length: 15.96 m (52 ft 4 in)
• Wingspan: 10.95 m (35 ft 11 in)
• Height: 5.28 m (17 ft 4 in)
• Max Takeoff Weight: 23,500 kg (51,809 lb)
• Powerplant: Twin Rolls-Royce Eurojet EJ200 turbofan; 20,000 lbf (90 kN) each with afterburner; 13,500 lbf (60 kN) each without afterburner
• Max Airspeed: Mach 2.35 (2,385 km/h (1,482 mph, 1,288 kn)
• Service Ceiling: 16,764 m (55,000 ft)
• Combat range: 1,389 km (863 mi, 750 nmi)
• Armament:
  
  • 1 × 27 mm Mauser “Bordkanone (onboard cannon)” BK-27 autocannon with 150 rounds
  • Total of thirteen external store stations: five (incl one wet) under the fuselage and four (incl one wet) under each wing
  • Mix of Beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air Missiles (BVRAAM) and Short-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (SRAAM) carried externally
  • Four BVRAAM under the fuselage in semi-conformal carriage configuration
  • Laser guided bombs
  • Advanced anti-armor weapons
  • Conventionally armed stand-off missiles

Reportedly 592 airframes have been built as of 2023. Besides the Royal Air Force, the Luftwaffe, the Italian Air Force, and the Spanish Air and Space Force, the warbird has also been adopted by Austria as well as the air forces of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member nations Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

Operational history and performance

For an assessment of the Eurofighter’s real-world combat performance, we turn to back to the RAF info page:

“Although Typhoon has flown precision attack missions in all its combat deployments to date, its most essential role remains the provision of quick reaction alert (QRA) for UK and Falkland Islands airspace … Having first deployed into combat for Operation Ellamy (over Libya) in 2011, Typhoon Force began an enduring commitment to Operation Shader (Iraq/Syria) in December 2015. It has also been a regular contributor to the Baltic Air Policing effort under Operation Azotize and bolstered NATO air defence over the Black Sea, deploying jets to Romania, and Iceland, in addition to the standing commitment of QRA in the UK and Falkland Islands.”

Meanwhile, in a delightful non-combat-related human interest story, this past April the RAF had one of its display Typhoons—based at RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire—repainted a camouflage color scheme with black and white stripes on its wings to commemorate the eightieth anniversary of the D-Day landings. “It means the world to me,” the plane’s pilot, Flt Lt David Turnbull, was quoted as saying.

The Way Forward

“No rest for the weary,” as the saying goes (or as some prefer to phrase it, “No rest for the wicked”). Craig Hoyle of FlightGlobal noted last year that the RAF had dramatically ramped up the ops tempo for its Typhoon fleet ever since Vladimir Putin initiated Russia’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine in February 2022, and with the end of that conflict seemingly nowhere in sight, that ops tempo probably won’t be slowing down anytime soon.

Meanwhile. other countries expressing an interest in purchasing the Eurofighter include Serbia (somewhat ironic in light of the Serbs’ longstanding “Little Brother-Big Brother” relationship with Russia), Bangladesh, Colombia, and Ukraine.

About the Author: Christian D. Orr, Defense Expert

Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor for National Security Journal (NSJ). He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He has also been published in The Daily Torch, The Journal of Intelligence and Cyber Security, and Simple Flying. Last but not least, he is a Companion of the Order of the Naval Order of the United States (NOUS).

Image: Soos Jozsef / Shutterstock.com

Samedi soir, le rideau est tombé sur la 35ᵉ édition des Journées cinématographiques de Carthage, lors d’une cérémonie organisée au Théâtre de l’Opéra à la […]

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Le bilan humain du cyclone Chido à Mayotte s'élève désormais à 39 morts, selon un nouveau décompte publié mardi par le préfet de Mayotte dans un communiqué. Sujet de France 2.

Zord

While the French today are mocked for their surrender to Hitler’s Germany in World War II, Americans and others around the world make the mistake of underestimating this once great and proud nation with a rich history of martial prowess.

What’s more, France has a highly sophisticated and reliable defense export sector.

The Rafale: an enduring French legacy

One of the most enduring products of the French defense industrial base is the Dassault Rafale. In fact, it has been described to me at times by proud French defense experts as the “pinnacle of French aeronautical engineering.” It is, without a doubt, the most impressive indigenously produced French warplane. This bird has demonstrated a high degree of versatility, technological prowess, and combat effectiveness across multiple battlefields globally.

The Rafale began its storied existence in the 1980s, as the Europeans were feverishly trying to develop a European-produced next-generation fighter. As always, the French strategic vision diverged from those of the rest of Europe. Thus, much like their development of a nuclear weapons arsenal, the French independently created a delta-canard configured jet that emphasized stealth, agility, and versatility. It became a great system for air superiority and ground attack roles. This bird has a reduced cross-section, making it harder to spot on radar. While it isn’t a stealth plane. It is very effective at cutting down on its radar visibility.

An RBE2 Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar comes with the Rafale that greatly improves target detection and tracking capabilities. More importantly, the Rafale uses the SPECTRA EW suite which gives the pilot 360-degree protection against radar and infrared threats, making it one of the most survivable aircraft in its class. All this, of course, merges into the aforementioned Thales Scorpion Helmet Mounted Display System (HMDS) for greater pilot situational awareness and off-boresight targeting. 

The M88-2 engine developed originally by Snecma (now Safran Aircraft Engines) powers the Rafale. The M88-2 allows for the plane to enter a supercruise mode, meaning this bird can go supersonic without needing afterburners. This, in turn, conserves fuel for longer missions or increased combat persistence. When used in conjunction with the Rafale’s fly-by-wire control systems, the Rafale has incredible maneuverability.

As a multirole fighter, the Rafale can carry a wide range of weapons, from air-to-air missiles to air-to-ground attack systems and precision-guided munitions. It’s a truly adaptable warplane for nearly any kind of combat environment. The Rafale’s long service life, as well as its popularity as an export system for France, has allowed for it to see combat across a wide variety of regions. 

Fighting in places like Libya, Mali, Iraq, and Syria, the Rafale has been praised for its precision strike capabilities, its survivability in contested environments, and its role in coalition operations. The Rafale is a highly interoperable plane with other NATO and allied nations. 

That time a Rafale took on an F-22 and won

In fact, French pilots upstaged the United States Air Force during a training exercise in the Middle East when a Rafale supposedly destroyed an F-22A Raptor in combat. The Americans were understandably humiliated by this and issued a series of denunciations against their French allies. 

Yet, the French military maintains that its Rafales outperformed the F-22 in that instance. It remains a point of controversy between the two air forces today. Still, it showed the amazing capabilities that the older, cheaper fourth-generation French plane had when compared to even fifth-generation warplanes.

Rafale is a strategic asset for France

Thus, the Rafale is an astonishing plane that routinely protects French territory while projecting French power—and giving the French considerable leverage in the global arms industry. 

The French might not be the dominant world power they were a couple of centuries ago. That doesn’t mean they should be underestimated. 

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase wherever books are sold. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

Image: Arjan van de Logt / Shutterstock.com

La route des Balkans reste toujours l'une des principales voies d'accès l'Union européenne, pour les exilés du Proche et du Moyen Orient, d'Afrique ou d'Asie. Alors que les frontières Schengen se ferment, Frontex se déploie dans les Balkans, devenus un « sas d'accès » de la « forteresse Europe ». Notre fil d'infos en continu.

- Le fil de l'Info / Kosovo, Albanie, Bulgarie, Roumanie, Macédoine du Nord, Grèce, Bosnie-Herzégovine, Moldavie, Croatie, Serbie, Monténégro, Slovénie, Courrier des Balkans, Turquie, Migrants Balkans, Défense, police et justice, Populations, minorités et migrations, Questions européennes, Gratuit

La route des Balkans reste toujours l'une des principales voies d'accès l'Union européenne, pour les exilés du Proche et du Moyen Orient, d'Afrique ou d'Asie. Alors que les frontières Schengen se ferment, Frontex se déploie dans les Balkans, devenus un « sas d'accès » de la « forteresse Europe ». Notre fil d'infos en continu.

- Le fil de l'Info / Kosovo, Albanie, Bulgarie, Roumanie, Macédoine du Nord, Grèce, Bosnie-Herzégovine, Moldavie, Croatie, Serbie, Monténégro, Slovénie, Courrier des Balkans, Turquie, Migrants Balkans, Défense, police et justice, Populations, minorités et migrations, Questions européennes, Gratuit

La route des Balkans reste toujours l'une des principales voies d'accès l'Union européenne, pour les exilés du Proche et du Moyen Orient, d'Afrique ou d'Asie. Alors que les frontières Schengen se ferment, Frontex se déploie dans les Balkans, devenus un « sas d'accès » de la « forteresse Europe ». Notre fil d'infos en continu.

- Le fil de l'Info / Kosovo, Albanie, Bulgarie, Roumanie, Macédoine du Nord, Grèce, Bosnie-Herzégovine, Moldavie, Croatie, Serbie, Monténégro, Slovénie, Courrier des Balkans, Turquie, Migrants Balkans, Défense, police et justice, Populations, minorités et migrations, Questions européennes, Gratuit

La route des Balkans reste toujours l'une des principales voies d'accès l'Union européenne, pour les exilés du Proche et du Moyen Orient, d'Afrique ou d'Asie. Alors que les frontières Schengen se ferment, Frontex se déploie dans les Balkans, devenus un « sas d'accès » de la « forteresse Europe ». Notre fil d'infos en continu.

- Le fil de l'Info / Kosovo, Albanie, Bulgarie, Roumanie, Macédoine du Nord, Grèce, Bosnie-Herzégovine, Moldavie, Croatie, Serbie, Monténégro, Slovénie, Courrier des Balkans, Turquie, Migrants Balkans, Défense, police et justice, Populations, minorités et migrations, Questions européennes, Gratuit

La route des Balkans reste toujours l'une des principales voies d'accès l'Union européenne, pour les exilés du Proche et du Moyen Orient, d'Afrique ou d'Asie. Alors que les frontières Schengen se ferment, Frontex se déploie dans les Balkans, devenus un « sas d'accès » de la « forteresse Europe ». Notre fil d'infos en continu.

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La route des Balkans reste toujours l'une des principales voies d'accès l'Union européenne, pour les exilés du Proche et du Moyen Orient, d'Afrique ou d'Asie. Alors que les frontières Schengen se ferment, Frontex se déploie dans les Balkans, devenus un « sas d'accès » de la « forteresse Europe ». Notre fil d'infos en continu.

- Le fil de l'Info / Kosovo, Albanie, Bulgarie, Roumanie, Macédoine du Nord, Grèce, Bosnie-Herzégovine, Moldavie, Croatie, Serbie, Monténégro, Slovénie, Courrier des Balkans, Turquie, Migrants Balkans, Défense, police et justice, Populations, minorités et migrations, Questions européennes, Gratuit

It is no fresh news that the Russian forces have been taking extremely heavy losses in Ukraine. Moscow has lost almost 800,000 men in the fighting thus far. But what about materiel losses? How many heavy ground weapon systems have the Russian force lost in the fighting?

Thousands of Losses

“Russian military equipment losses in Ukraine continue to increase. Russia has lost over 3,600 Main Battle Tanks and nearly 8,000 armoured vehicles since February 2022,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in a recent estimate on the conflict.

According to the Oryx independent open-source analysis website, which has been visually tracking Russian materiel losses since the start of the conflict, the Russian forces have lost approximately 3,660 main battle tanks and 8,900 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers.

However, the Ukrainian estimates put the number of Russian materiel losses at vastly higher figures. Specifically, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense assesses that the Russian forces have lost approximately 9,600 main battle tanks and 19,900 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles.

That is quite a discrepancy in numbers between the Western and Ukrainian intelligence assessments, and the truth may very well lie somewhere in between. The Ukrainians are closer to the action and have a better picture. But they also have a vested interest in portraying high Russian losses.

To counter the extremely heavy attrition on the frontlines, the Russian military has resorted to using obsolete weapon systems and vehicles. These obsolete weapon systems include T-54/55 main battle tanks, which were designed at the end of World War II; Degtyaryov heavy machine guns, dating from World War I; artillery pieces built eighty years ago; and armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles from the 1950s and 1960s.

“This has led to a reliance on outdated and poorly maintained Soviet-era equipment from strategic storage depots. Armoured equipment is being hauled out of storage, upgraded where possible and sent to the frontline,” the British Military Intelligence added.

The Russian military has sent thousands of these older weapon systems to the frontlines to fill the gap created by the heavy attrition.

“Imagery has confirmed a large reduction of stored armoured vehicles at tank storage bases at Arsenyev, Buy and Ulan-Ude since 2022,” the British Military stated, referring to strategic weapon storage facilities operated by the Russian military.

The Strategic Consequence

There is a strategic consequence to what is transpiring in Ukraine. The Russian military’s ability to fight modern, maneuver-type warfare has largely diminished. Indeed, if a near-peer conflict between Russia and NATO breaks out tomorrow, the Russian military would very likely not be able to match the transatlantic alliance’s conventional capabilities on the ground—notwithstanding escalation to the use of nuclear weapons. And that is the case with other capabilities.

For example, the Russian special operations forces community has suffered extremely heavy losses in the fighting. Some Spetsnaz units have lost up to 80 percent of their personnel. And when it comes to special operators, recruiting and training take years. As such, it will likely take the Russian military years to recreate a strategic special operations capability once the war is over.

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

Image: Andrii Marushchynets / Shutterstock.com