Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

ARI 74/2015 - 17/12/2015
Mario Esteban
Se analiza el creciente papel de Asia en la globalización, mostrando que China no es el único actor relevante y que su impacto va mucho más allá de la dimensión económica.

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On December 16, IPI Vienna hosted a meeting on peace polling with keynote speaker Colin Irwin of the University of Liverpool. Peace polls are public opinion polls designed to test a series of questions and seek to identify common ground on which a peace process can move forward. Unlike market surveys or binary polls designed to give a yes or no answer, peace polls present a range of choices from “essential” on one side to “unacceptable” on the other, with “desirable, “acceptable” and “tolerable” options in-between. In such a way, red lines become evident, but so too do possible second choices around which compromise can be sought.

The process of peace polling can be considered a confidence-building measure. All stakeholders, including adversaries, are invited to draft suitable questions, and also take part in analyzing the results. This encourages their buy-in to the process, and makes it harder for them to dismiss the results.

Irwin described peace polling as a way of “bringing the people to the negotiating table.” He also explained that it is a useful way of testing policy options that can prepare the ground for mediation. Peace polls can disprove a leader’s assertion that his or her people do not support a particular policy. Conversely, they can be used to prepare the public for proposals that have been agreed behind closed doors. In both respects, peace polls can play a vital role in “ripening” a peace process through public policy. It also makes peace processes more inclusive.

Peace polling was used extensively, and successfully, in the Northern Ireland peace process. The methodology was also applied in the Balkans, Kashmir, Sri Lanka, Cyprus, Darfur, and the Middle East. Irwin sees great potential for the technique to be applied in Syria.

Irwin’s interest in peace polling stems in large part from a decade that he spent living with the Inuit in the Canadian Artic. He explained how Inuit councils deliberate until there is consensus. A mediator listens to the divergent views and then seeks a solution acceptable to all. All parties may not get what they want, but they will at least get what they need.

Participants discussed how peace polling could be applied to the so-called “frozen” conflicts in the OSCE area.

Colin Irwin’s book The People’s Peace is available here: http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/002539.pdf

Les 15 et 16 décembre 2015 s’est déroulé à Paris le 3e séminaire entre l’Institut des hautes études de défense national (IHEDN) et le National Resilience Institute of the Republic of Indonesia (Lemhannas RI)...

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You can read here the article on the challenge of migration, which was written by Director General of ELIAMEP Dr Thanos Dokos. This commentary was published in the Greek daily Kathimerini on 16 December 2015.

Mit der Verabschiedung der Globalen Nachhaltigkeitsziele in New York und dem Klimavertrag in Paris ist 2015 das Entwicklungsjahr. Im Entwicklungspolitischen Forum am 17. Dezember 2015 gingen wir der Frage nach, wie die Ergebnisse des Klimagipfels zu bewerten sind. Mit uns diskutierten auch Vertreter aus Südostasien.

Article de Erwan Le Noan, paru dans Le Figaro, le 16 décembre 2015.
Quand le ministre des Finances Joseph Caillaux est enfin parvenu à faire adopter l’impôt sur le revenu en 1914, l'économiste Paul Leroy Beaulieu » s'en est affligé, dénonçant un événement « aussi catastrophique que la révocation de l'édit de Nantes ».

Cet article Erwan Le Noan – Le Figaro – La flat tax, une révolution démocratique est apparu en premier sur Fondapol.

ARI 73/2015 - 16/12/2015
Hugo Cuello
Este ARI pretende ofrecer una exposición general de la situación económica y comercial de Myanmar, así como una primera aproximación de las oportunidades de negocio que tendrían las empresas españolas en el mercado birmano.

President of ELIAMEP, Professor Loukas Tsoukalis will be the Pierre Keller Visiting Professor at Harvard University for the Spring Semester 2016. He will teach a graduate course on ‘The Political Economy of European Integration in Crisis’ at the Harvard Kennedy School.

You can find here more information.

Europe is imbued with a multitude of social, cultural, economic and political meanings. In their new book Professor Anna Triandafyllidou and Dr Ruby Gropas show that there can be no single definition of Europe but that a lot can be learned from addressing its diverse meanings.

In particular, the authors of this comprehensive text present an authoritative yet accessible introduction to understanding Europe today, moving beyond accounts of European integration to provide a holistic and nuanced study of contemporary Europe and its historical development.

This book explores evolving definitions of Europe from antiquity, to the Cold War, right through to Europe in the midst of the Eurozone and global financial crises. By examining the different roles and meanings that Europe has held inside and outside of the continent, including the European Union’s ‘branding’ of Europe, the text grounds its analysis in an understanding of Europes plural.  Chapters explore concepts of Europe as civilization, Europe as progress, Europe as unity and Europe as diversity.

How do Europeans think of themselves and their respective national identities in a multicultural and multi-ethnic age? How has modernity and the pre- and post-industrial values of Europe affected the Europe of now and what are the political legacies of Europe?  To what extent are notions of social solidarity shared across the continent? This is the first text to systematically answer these questions, and other, in order to better determine ‘what is Europe?’

You can find here more information on the book ‘What is Europe’ published by Palgrave Macmillan.

You can also read here a sample chapter.

La Fondation pour l'innovation politique souhaite relayer la conférence « La France en état de choc : comment sortir par le haut ? », organisée par le Collège des Bernardins, autour du livre de Pierre Manent : Situation de la France (DDB, 2015). Ce débat aura lieu le jeudi 7 janvier 2016 de 20h à 22h.

Cet article 7/01/16 : conférence sur le thème : « La France en état de choc : comment sortir par le haut ? » est apparu en premier sur Fondapol.

Nach langem Zögern hat David Cameron seine Forderungen für eine »EU-Reform« auf den Tisch gelegt, mit der er die Briten vom Verbleib in der Union überzeugen will. Kernelement seiner Vision der EU ist die Flexibilität. Großbritannien soll die Möglichkeit erhalten, sich endgültig von der weiteren EU-Integration abzukoppeln und seine Mitgliedschaft auf einen vertieften Binnenmarkt zu konzentrieren. Damit will er die bestehende Sonderstellung seines Landes in einer ohnehin immer stärker differenzierten EU weiter ausbauen. Jenseits konkreter politischer Überlegungen müssen die EU-Staaten daher in den Verhandlungen Antworten auf zwei Kernfragen finden: Wie viel Differenzierung und Sonderausnahmen verträgt die Europäische Union? Und wie kann eine dauerhaft bestehende Differenzierung besser abgefedert werden?

Wie hat sich der schwierige Prozess zu Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft seit 1990 in der Mongolei vollzogen? Wie gelang es, stabile demokratische Strukturen und Institutionen aufzubauen und warum gilt die Mongolei als Vorbild für einen gelungenen Transformationsprozess in Nordostasien und für die zentralasiatischen Republiken?

Am 12. Dezember 2015 endete die 21. UN Klimakonferenz in Paris (COP21) mit der Verabschiedung eines rechtlich bindenden Klimaschutzabkommens. Zeitlich daran anschließend reiste eine Delegation aus China, Kambodscha, Laos, Myanmar und Vietnam nach Brüssel und München, um sich über die Ergebnisse des Paris-Gipfels auszutauschen. Hierzu lud die Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung (HSS) in Brüssel am 15. Dezember zu einem Runden Tisch mit Experten der EU-Institutionen und Think Tank ein.

ARI 72/2015 - 15/12/2015
Gonzalo Escribano

Argelia aprueba un presupuesto para 2016 al límite de lo políticamente posible tras una tumultuosa sesión parlamentaria.

L'avènement de la Cour pénale internationale a permis la pleine reconnaissance de la place de la victime dans le procès international, avec l'affirmation d'un droit à réparation pour le crime de génocide, les crimes contres l'humanité et les crimes de guerre. A l'heure des premières condamnations prononcées par la Cour, la question demeure toutefois entière de savoir non pas seulement s'il est possible de réparer l'irréparable, mais comment tenter de le faire.

Article publié dans Politique étrangère, vol. 80, n°4, hiver 2015.

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JEUDI 17 DÉCEMBRE 2015

Université Panthéon-Assas Paris II - 12 place du Panthéon 75005 Paris - Salle des conseils (escalier M, 2e étage)

L'arrivée d'armes dites « autonomes » sur le champ de bataille suscite fantasmes et craintes. Longtemps marginaux, les « systèmes d'armes létaux autonomes » pourraient connaître prochainement un développement sans précédent, grâce aux progrès de l'intelligence artificielle. Dans ces conditions, ces « robots tueurs » pourraient-ils s'émanciper de leurs inventeurs et devenir des menaces à la paix et à la sécurité internationales ? Peut-on alors raisonnablement parler d'une troisième révolution militaire et stratégique, après l'invention de la poudre et de l'arme nucléaire ?

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Can trade and energy cooperation promote peace? On December 14, an IPI Vienna meeting discussed the possibilities and limitations of peace and economic connectivity between Europe and Asia; the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU); and across unrecognized boundaries, for example within states where there have been “frozen” or protracted conflicts. The potential role of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in promoting economic connectivity was also discussed. The meeting, “Economic Connectivity,” was part of IPI’s Swiss-funded “Peace Incubator” project.

Pipelines, train tracks, roads, water lines, and power cables connect communities and states and provide the lifeblood for economic development. While their disruption for political reasons, as seen in the recent case of Crimea, can hamper living conditions, such arteries of trade can also help to promote greater understanding and improve well-being which, in turn, can contribute to stability and good-neighborly relations. That said, it was observed that economic connectivity alone is no guarantee of peace: Europe was highly integrated in terms of trade in 1914, but this did not avert a war.

Participants discussed what steps could be taken to reduce politicization of economic relations between the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian halves of the OSCE area, in what is sometimes described as the “integration of integrations” between EU and the EaEU. It was suggested that ways should be found to help states (like Armenia, Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine) to build bridges between the EU and EaEU rather than being forced to make a “false choice” between them. The trilateral talks between the EU, Ukraine and Russia were cited as a positive example, as was relations between Turkey and a number of partners. It was also noted that members of both unions should harmonize their rules and standards in line with commitments of the World Trade Organization. Several participants stressed the importance of a “small step” policy rather than working towards the grand design of a common pan-European economic space.

A lively discussion focused on how economic cooperation could help to de-escalate tensions in and around Ukraine, and rebuild trust and cooperation in Europe. It was noted, for example in the context of trade and energy, that there is a high level of co-dependence between Russia and many EU countries, and therefore incentives for cooperation. At the same time, the crisis is forcing traditional trade partners to diversify their products and markets. Some participants stressed the role that economic cooperation can play as part of wider efforts to enhance stability while others warned that trade cannot operate in a political vacuum or reward bad behavior.

One participant pointed out the importance of rules in the context of trade. In the same way that states need the rule of law for legitimacy at home and predictability abroad, connectivity can only work effectively if investors can operate in an environment that they trust.

There was a detailed discussion on the impact of energy on security (and vice versa), particularly Russian oil and gas. It was noted that Russia has an over-supply of gas, that demand is dropping, and that Russia is pivoting to Asia. The impact of other geo-political changes, for example in Iran, Turkey and the Gulf, and their impact on energy markets were also discussed.

Participants discussed whether or not there is a role for the OSCE in promoting economic connectivity. One participant pointed out that this has been part of the OSCE’s work since the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, and now takes on a renewed significance. It was noted that, moving forward, discussions on this topic within the OSCE should involve the business community. This will be one of Germany’s priorities during its Chairmanship of the OSCE in 2016. It was noted that the recent report by the OSCE Panel of Eminent Persons included recommendations designed to increase the OSCE’s work in the field of economic connectivity. Furthermore, it was recalled that the 2010 OSCE Astana Summit Declaration called for an intensification of energy security dialogue.

Several participants suggested that science diplomacy and energy diplomacy could build bridges at a time when traditional diplomacy faces gridlock, and gave examples of on-going initiatives.

Participants discussed economic connectivity in the context of building confidence among parties to protracted conflicts. It was noted that identifying common economic interests and facilitating or regulating trade – even among parties that do not officially recognize each other – can create mutually beneficial incentives. The cases of China/Taiwan, Serbia/Kosovo, Cyprus as well as Georgia/Abkhazia were cited. This is an area of work where IPI intends to increase its activities, potentially in Moldova.