Written by Marcin Grajewski.
The Ukraine Defence Contact Group (Ramstein group) of 54 countries supporting Kyiv in its struggle against Russia’s military aggression meets on 21 April to discuss sending more military equipment to Ukraine.
As President Vladimir Putin visited his commanders in regions of Ukraine under Moscow’s military occupation, Russian forces stepped up heavy artillery bombardments and air strikes on the devastated, symbolically important Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.
Poland, Ukraine’s neighbour and staunch ally, has banned imports of Ukrainian grain in defiance of EU trade policies, saying local prices of wheat had plummeted, causing protests from Polish farmers. Transport shipments would be restored after a deal to ensure that Poland would be only a transit country for the commodity. Meanwhile, Russia has cast doubt over whether it will agree to extend the agreement not to block Ukrainian shipments of grain via the Black Sea.
This note gathers links to the recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on Russia’s war on Ukraine. Earlier analyses of the war can be found in a previous edition of the ‘What Think Tanks are Thinking’ series.
Poland and Ukraine: The emerging alliance that could reshape Europe
Atlantic Council, April 2023
Arming Ukraine without crossing Russia’s red lines
Brookings Institution, April 2023
How Russia’s invasion of Ukraine tested the international legal order
Brookings Institution, April 2023
No gains for Europe from latest pilgrimage to Beijing
Bruegel, April 2023
Ukraine’s total democratic resilience in the shadow of Russia’s war
Carnegie Europe, April 2023
Russian army in search of human reserves: Day 414 of the war
Centre for Eastern Studies, April 2023
The EU’s strategic energy partnership with the US after a year of war
Centre for Eastern Studies, April 2023
Expert insights: Russia and Ukraine
Clingendael, April 2023
EU-Ukraine strategy should include the Eurasian spine
Egmont, April 2023
Steppe change: How Russia’s war on Ukraine is reshaping Kazakhstan
European Council on Foreign Relations, April
The Zelensky-Lukashenka-Tsikhanouskaya triangle: Understanding Ukraine’s relationship with the Belarusian opposition
European Council on Foreign Relations, April 2023
The art of vassalisation: How Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
European Council on Foreign Relations, April 2023
Advancing military mobility in Europe: An uphill battle
European Policy Centre, April 2023
Buying weapons together (or not)
European Union Institute for Security Studies, April 2022
Ukraine’s Integration with the EU in the context of the war
EUROPEUM, April 2023
Russian blackmail and the Black Sea Grain Initiative: The (limited) impact of the war in Ukraine on global food security
Finnish Institute of International Affairs, April 2023
Judging Putin
Fondation Robert Schuman, April 2023
Humanitarian responses to the war in Ukraine: Stories from the grassroots
Foreign Policy Centre, April 2023
Sanctions against Russia: Are they working?
Friends of Europe, April 2023
TB2 Bayraktar : Grande stratégie d’un petit drone
Institut français des relations internationales, April 2023
Tackling the constraints on EU foreign policy towards Ukraine: From strategic denial to geopolitical awakening
Istituto Affari Internazionali, April 2023
Reframing Russian colonialism: Ukraine refuses to be the subaltern
Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale, April 2023
War in Ukraine, where quantity as well as quality matters
International Institute for Strategic Studies, April 2023
Ukraine’s strategy of attrition
International Institute for Strategic Studies, April 2023
Ukraine: The shock of recognition
International Institute for Strategic Studies, April 2023
Economic sanctions against Russia: How effective? How durable?
Peterson Institute for International Economics, April 2023
Stick with Europe
Rand Corporation, April 2023
Stalled in Ukraine, Kremlin increasingly turns to political theater
Rand Corporation, April 2023
Why blockading rather than retaking Crimea might be Kyiv’s best option
Rand Corporation, April 2023
Cyber operations in Russia’s war against Ukraine
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, April 2023
Ukraine’s reconstruction: Questions and common grounds
Vox Ukraine, April 2023
Ukraine, the defeat of Putin
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, March 2023
War, peace, and the international system after Ukraine
Brookings Institution, March 2023
What to do about the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
Brookings Institution, March 2023
Reforming the Ukrainian economy and state: The unfinished business
Bruegel, March 2023
Much of the Global South is on Ukraine’s side
Bruegel, March 2023
Is the EU doing enough for Eastern Europe?
Carnegie Europe, March 2023
The EU accession prospects of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia
Centre for European Policy Studies, March 2023
One year of war in Ukraine
Centre for European Policy Studies, March 2023
After a year of arms deliveries to Ukraine, the EU needs to step up and speed up
Centre for European Policy Studies, March 2023
Eurovision, war and the geopolitics of pop
Chatham House, March 2023
Russian nuclear intimidation
Chatham House, March 2023
Chinese supply chains could tip the balance in Ukraine
Chatham House, March 2023
How the Ukraine grain deal went from boon to burden for the Kremlin
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, March 2023
Population-centric: Lessons from Russia’s hybrid war in Moldova
European Council on Foreign Relations, March 2023
Ukraine’s accession talks need bold action in Kyiv and Brussels
European Policy Centre, March 2023
Where to now? Ukraine’s war is eclipsing the EU’s internal woes
Friends of Europe, March 2023
Global politics in the shadow of Ukraine
International Crisis Group, March 2023
The EU after one year of war: Widening, deepening, rebalancing
Istituto Affari Internazionali, March 2023
Russia’s war on Ukraine: A sanctions timeline
Peterson Institution for International Economics, March 2023
Ukraine’s reconstruction already on the agenda
Polish Institute of International Affairs, March 2023
One year after the invasion: Most Russians still back war in Ukraine
Polish Institute of International Affairs, March 2023
EU plans for increased ammunition production
Polish Institute of International Affairs, March 2023
Reviewing the Russian economy a year after the invasion of Ukraine
Polish Institute of International Affairs, March 2023
Refugees from Ukraine adapting to the European labour market
Polish Institute of International Affairs, March 2023
America’s dangerous short war fixation
Rand Corporation, March 2023
Framing sanctions: The role of governmental narrative-building
RUSI Europe, March 2023
Read this briefing on ‘Russia’s war on Ukraine‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.
Credit: Shutterstock
By Martin Labbé
GENEVA, Switzerland, Apr 20 2023 (IPS)
As 2022 came to a close, ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence chatbot, became the fastest-growing app in history, reaching an estimated 123 million users less than three months after its launch.
It is the most prominent specimen of AI-tools that generate content such as text, pictures, and software code. The International Trade Centre (ITC) reflects on what this could mean for the international trade development sphere.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is not new for those using Siri, Cortana and other (virtual) personal assistants. Algorithms powered through massive data have also been determining how we get from A to B when we use a ride-hailing app, whether in a car in Manila or on a “boda boda” in Kampala.
Likewise, AI can screen job applicants in asynchronous video interviews. Cancer diagnosis research, automatic dental prosthetic design and medical image analysis are other examples of how AI is being used in the healthcare sector.
However, the natural language processing functionality of ChatGPT allows us to have a human-like conversation with AI.
This next generation chatbot has the potential to become an alternative to traditional search engines, hence the urge of other big tech companies like Google to launch their own chatbots in 2023 to keep up with the times – and profit.
In the meantime, for many of us, ChatGPT has become a tool we use daily – for research and support in content development. According to Satya Nadella, the CEO of Microsoft, which is said to have recently invested more than $10 billion in OpenAI (the scaleup behind ChatGPT), this marks the emergence of a “symbiotic relationship between humans and machines”.
Whether this will be a choice rather than a necessity remains to be seen.
AI is capital intensive both because of the massive amounts of data and the computer power required, which means it will be difficult to see global challengers emerge outside of the OECD.
Software companies in Africa venturing in this field, for instance Baamtu in Senegal, are struggling to access the required data despite their expertise. Data has become the new oil.
Back in 2019, our colleagues at the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) spotted the exponential growth of AI in related patent applications since 2012, mainly originating in the United States and China. Now, the rest of the world is trying to catch up.
You can count on impact at scale across the board: from government, business, civil society to education, healthcare and financial services.
Smart digital technologies are already widely used in agriculture in high-income countries. For instance, AI is being used in robotic milking systems in places such as Braz, Austria, to decide which cow should be milked when, with little supervision from the farmer.
In low-income countries, on the other hand, AI is mainly limited to small-scale smart farming and satellite imagery processing at the level of smallholder farming. But looking around, we can anticipate future uses, if an appropriate business model can be found.
The concept of “dark factories”, where industrial robots produce under remote human supervision, is not yet widespread. What will happen to the three million workers in the Bangladeshi ready-made garment industry assembling $5 t-shirts, with a monthly $70 salary, when the current equipment is ready for renewal?
Moreover, service jobs automation is around the corner – even in tech. AI is already sourcing code in code libraries at the request of software developers who use it to increase their productivity. Is this happening at the expense of junior software developers?
Other service sectors will be affected: in Senegal, chatbots are being used instead of customer care operators as clients and investors alike want to reduce costs.
In the Philippines, some of its 1.2 million business-process-management jobs – to a large extent customer care for global clients – could be replaced through robotic process automation.
This technology automates repetitive and routine tasks, allowing businesses to streamline their operations, reduce errors, and increase efficiency.
Beyond the business process management industry, generative AI is also likely to take entry-level gigs from game artists, people who create content for video games, or graphic designers, who often operate on a freelance basis.
If we look at the above under Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction theory, new jobs that don’t exist yet will replace the ones that will be made obsolete. In this context, continuous learning, re- and upskilling will be essential for blue- and white-collar workers.
AI will impact our trade-related technical assistance. AI will accelerate how we analyse trade data analysis. AI will also help us improve the learner experience in ITC’s SME Trade Academy, which is already experimenting with tools such as Synthesia to produce videos with human-like avatars in multiple languages and accents.
We need to help our beneficiaries leverage this technology as well, for instance the tailor in Burundi who is using ChatGPT to draft marketing materials like brochures and website content.
How we deliver our technical assistance and in which languages will also change to the benefit of our clients: text-to-speech in multiple languages can make our trade information accessible to farmers who speak a different language from the one the information was published in and who prefer to dial in rather than to read online.
All the above will not happen overnight, but nevertheless, we need to start preparing for it.
Martin Labbé is Tech Sector Development Coordinator and NTF V programme manager @ International Trade Centre.
Founded in 1964, the International Trade Centre is a multilateral agency which has a joint mandate with the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations through the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
IPS UN Bureau
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Lors de ces trois dernières années, l’économie mondiale a été soumise à rude épreuve. Il y a d’abord eu, en 2020 et 2021, la pandémie […]
L’article Économie post-COVID-19 : l’Algérie nouveau leader du Maghreb (analyse d’un expert français) est apparu en premier sur .
Les quatre (04) clubs qualifiés pour les demi finales de la Ligue des Champions sont connus.
Après la qualification des deux dernières équipes au terme des matches des quarts de finale retour, les affiches à suivre en demi finales de la C1 sont officialisées avec leurs dates.
Le programme complet des demi finales de la Ligue des Champions et de la finale :
Mardi 9 mai
Real Madrid – Manchester City
Mercredi 10 mai
Milan AC – Inter Milan
Mardi 16 mai
Inter Milan – Milan AC
Mercredi 17 mai
Manchester City – Real Madrid
Finale : 10 juin à Istanbul
J.S
En éliminant le Bayern après le nul (1-1) à l'Allianz Arena dans la soirée de ce mercredi 19 Avril, Manchester City retrouve le Real Madrid encore en demi finale, comme ce fut le cas la saison dernière.
Vainqueur (3-0) au match aller des quarts de finale face au Bayern Munich, Manchester City a validé son ticket pour les demi finales au terme du match retour ce mercredi (1-1).
Le but d'ouverture du match est venu en deuxième période. Manchester City, sur l'une de ses rares occasions, a ouvert le score grâce à Erling Haaland. A la 83e minute, les Bavarois rétablissent la jonction sur penalty transformé par Joshua Kimmich.
Score final 1-1 soit 4-1 au cumulé. City se qualifie pour les demi et affrontera le champion d'Europe en titre.
J.S
Les demi finales de Ligue des Champions auront bien lieu pour l'Inter Milan.
L'Inter Milan avait pris une belle option sur la qualification en s'imposant face à Benfica (2-0) à Lisbonne. Ce mercredi soir, le club italien fait nul 3-3 avec son adversaire de la soirée mais se qualifie quand même pour les demi finales.
C'est Barella qui ouvrait le score dans ce match retour. Il trouvait le relais de Lautaro et dans la surface venait conclure d'un enroulé du gauche dans la lucarne (1-0). Après ce but de Barella, Benfica avaient trois buts de retard sur l'Inter Milan, mais les Aigles allaient réagir avant le repos. Rafa Silva enroulait un centre parfait pour Aursnes, passé devant Dumfries. Le Norvégien s'appliquait et décroisait une tête puissante pour battre Onana et égaliser pour les visiteurs (1-1).
C'est l'Inter qui allait prendre l'avantage quelques instants plus tard. Dimarco déboulait à gauche, s'appuyait sur Mhkitaryan qui s'excentrait lui remettait et le latéral intériste enroulait au centre devant le but où Lautaro Martinez était à l'affût, 2-1, puis 3-1 quand Correa sur son premier ballon suite à un service de Di qMarco.
Mais Benfic ne lâchait rien et sur un coup franc, Antonio Silva sautait au-dessus d'Otamendi et prolongeait de la tête pour battre Onana (3-2). Befica allait égaliser en toute fin de rencontre, pas de quoi changer le destin de cette double confrontation.
3-3 au tableau d'affichage et 5-3 au cumulé, cela suffit pour l'Inter Milan de rejoindre l'AC Milan en demi finales. Un derby qui promet.
J.S
José Luis Márquez, Yaisema Fabelo and their son Yadir stand around a table holding fruits harvested from their Los Tres Hermanos agroecological farm, in Martí, a municipality in northwestern Cuba. The family of farmers values the final products of biogas technology, rich in nutrients suitable for fertilizing and restoring the soil. CREDIT: Jorge Luis Baños/IPS
By Luis Brizuela
MARTÍ, Cuba , Apr 20 2023 (IPS)
The first five biomethane-fuelled buses in the Cuban municipality of Martí will not only be a milestone in the country but will also represent a solution to the serious problem of transportation, while reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and bolstering local development.
Yaisema Fabelo, a librarian at the local prep school, told IPS that “the buses will boost the quality of life of the residents” of the municipality located in the north of the western province of Matanzas, about 200 kilometers east of Havana.
Fabelo, who is also a farmer from the Los Tres Hermanos agroecological farm, stressed that using biogas on an industrial scale and on individual farms “to produce electricity, cook food and obtain biofertilizers for organic crops” will benefit the 22,000 inhabitants of the municipality and surrounding areas.
The Martí I and nearby Martí II covered lagoon biodigesters will produce around 1,800 and 3,600 cubic meters of biogas per day, respectively, when they come into operation. They will connect through two separate gas pipelines with a biomethane plant where the fuel will be obtained for a group of buses. CREDIT: Jorge Luis Baños/IPS
The project
Turning pig manure and crop waste into biomethane and biogas is the focus of the project “Global Action for Climate Change in Cuba: Municipality of Martí, towards a carbon-neutral sustainable development model.”
The project, carried out by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the Ministry of Economy and Planning with 5.5 million dollars in financing disbursed by the European Union, began to be implemented in 2020 and is to be completed in 2024.“[We want] to demonstrate that the biodigesters are economically feasible for Cuba, that connected with large pig farms they can be used to generate electricity and contribute to the economy." -- Anober Aguilar
“The main problem that Martí has in the case of greenhouse gases is waste, responsible for 57 percent of our emissions,” explained Sobeida Reyes, director of territorial development for the town.
In an interview with IPS, the official pointed out that with the project and as part of the local development strategy, the aim is to gradually contribute to decarbonization with the use of renewable energy sources and incorporate biogas to biomethane conversion technology.
Biogas is composed mainly of methane and carbon dioxide, obtained in biodigesters from the decomposition of organic residues such as agricultural or livestock waste by bacteria, through anaerobic digestion, without oxygen.
Biomethane, also known as a renewable gas, is derived from a treatment process that removes carbon dioxide, moisture, ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, among other impurities from biogas, which brings its composition closer to that of fossil natural gas and favors its use to generate electricity and heat and to fuel vehicles.
The plan is to strengthen the public transport system through “16 buses powered by biomethane, the first five of which are to be tested in February 2024, after a bidding process outlined in the project that will facilitate their importation,” Reyes said.
“There is a commitment that these buses will be driven by women,” she added.
The future biomethane plant, which has already been awarded in tender, will provide, according to the plan, about 150 cubic meters per hour of gas suitable for bottling.
It will depend on the Martí I and Martí II covered lagoon biodigesters, which will be the largest in the country and will produce around 1,800 and 3,600 cubic meters of biogas per day, respectively, when they come into operation.
These, in turn, will each be fed by a pig breeding center belonging to the Matanzas Pork Company.
A third of the 14 kilometers of gas pipelines that will connect both biodigesters to the biomethane plant have already been put in place.
The generator is also being installed, while the lagoon is being filled with water to check its operation. The last thing needed is to put in place the membrane that will cover it.
This part is expected to be operational in February of next year, as well as the biomethane plant, so that the first five buses can then be tested, according to the established timeframe.
With the help of an electricity generator, the Martí I biodigester is to provide 100 kilowatts per hour, equivalent to the approximate consumption of 80 to 100 homes. The Martí II will provide even more.
A poster shows what the Martí I covered lagoon biodigester will look like. For Anober Aguilar, a specialist at the Indio Hatuey Pastures and Forages Experimental Station, responsible for the technological assembly, the construction of this type of biodigesters is economically feasible in Cuba. CREDIT: Jorge Luis Baños/IPS
Greater commitment to biogas
A potent greenhouse gas, methane has 80 times the climate-warming power of carbon dioxide, studies show.
Scientists argue that proper management of methane resulting from the decomposition of agricultural waste and livestock manure helps to mitigate water and soil pollution and to combat climate change.
Its extraction and energy use, especially in rural and semi-urban settings, can be a cost-effective solution to reduce the consumption of electricity based on fossil sources. In Cuba there are an estimated 5,000 small-scale (up to 24 cubic meters per day) biodigesters.
In this country of 11.1 million inhabitants, a significant percentage of the 3.9 million households use electricity as the main source of energy for cooking and heating water for bathing.
Renewable energy sources account for only five percent of the national energy mix.
In the case of biogas, “the main obstacle to its expansion is the availability of manure, as there is a low number of pigs and cattle, due to problems with feed and animal nutrition,” Anober Aguilar, an expert with the Indio Hatuey Pasture and Forage Experimental Station, located in Perico, another municipality of Matanzas, told IPS.
This scientific research center for technological management and innovation in the field of livestock production is in charge of the technological assembly of the biodigesters of the covered lagoon in Martí.
In the context of an economic crisis that has lasted for three decades, exacerbated by the tightening of the U.S, embargo, the COVID pandemic, and failed or delayed economic reforms, Cuba has limited imports of animal feed due to the shortage of foreign currency.
Furthermore, insufficient harvests do not guarantee abundant raw material to produce feed, while the scarcity of construction materials and their high cost make it impossible for many farmers to undertake the construction of a biodigester.
Conservative estimates by experts suggest that there is potential to expand the network of biodigesters on the island to up to 20,000 units, at least small-scale ones.
“If we look at the cost of the investment in the short term, it is more feasible to focus on wind or solar energy, because setting up a biodigester requires more financing, more time and specialized personnel,” explained Aguilar.
But seen at a distance of 10 to 15 years, “the investment evens out, because the potential of photovoltaic cells declines, repairs are made difficult by the rapid changes in technology, or the blades of the windmills deteriorate, in addition to the fact that both are more vulnerable to tropical cyclones,” the expert said.
“As long as they have raw material, biodigesters produce 24 hours a day,” he added.
He specified that one of the objectives of the project is “to demonstrate that the biodigesters are economically feasible for Cuba, that connected with large pig farms they can be used to generate electricity and contribute to the economy.”
Ministerial Order 395 of April 2021, of the Ministry of Energy and Mines, stipulated that each of the 168 Cuban municipalities must have a development program and strategy regarding biogas, and coordinate their management and implementation with those of their respective province.
Electrical technician Reinaldo Álvarez shows the electric generator located in the Martí I covered lagoon biodigester, in northwestern Cuba, which will provide about 100 kilowatt hours, equivalent to the electricity consumption of 80 to 100 homes. The nearby Martí II biodigester will produce even more. CREDIT: Jorge Luis Baños/IPS
Promoting agroecology
Martí’s development strategy includes projects to prepare preserves, spices and dehydrated foods with the help of the sun, a biomass gasifier for drying rice and generating electricity, the production of cooking oil, thermal baths, exploiting natural asphalt deposits, and social works, among others.
Reyes reported that 28 farms in the municipality have biodigesters, and that in 12 of them, as part of the project, “a module was delivered that includes a refrigerator, a stove, a rice cooker and a lamp, which use biogas.”
Another urgent objective is to foment agroecology and move towards local self-sufficiency in food, including animal feed.
“In the current harvest we had a yield per hectare of 19 tons of organic potatoes. As with the other crops, we only used biological products, of which more than 80 percent were produced by us,” farmer José Luis Márquez explained to IPS.
The 13-hectare Los Tres Hermanos agroecological teaching farm, dedicated to growing a variety of crops and small livestock using sustainable techniques, was granted in usufruct by the government, forms part of the Ciro Redondo credit and services cooperative, and has been managed by Márquez since 2018, together with his wife Yaisema Fabelo and their son Yadir.
A nationally manufactured PVC (polyvinyl chloride) tubular biodigester is also installed on the farm, with a volume of forty cubic meters.
“Due to the pandemic and the shortage of manure, it is not producing. We want to once again encourage pig and rabbit farming, recycle solid waste and convert it into organic fertilizer for crops and household chores,” said Márquez.
Biogas technology provides biol and biosol, liquid effluent and sludge, respectively, rich in nutrients to fertilize and restore the soil.
The farm is visited by students from different levels of education, up to prep school, who through workshops given by Márquez and Fabelo, learn about good agroecological practices “and the positive impact on the economy, people’s health and the environment,” Fabelo said.
Related ArticlesA bíróság a közleményében azt írta, hogy múlt pénteken hirdettek ítéletet öt férfi ügyében, akiket fogolyzendülés, illetve „fogolyzendülésben erőszak alkalmazásával részvétel” bűntettével vádolt az ügyészség.
Az ítélet szerint a többszörös visszaeső férfiak 2017. július 27-én egy budapesti büntetés-végrehajtási intézetben töltötték szabadságvesztésüket. A biztonsági ellenőrzés során az őrök tiltott tárgyakat és kábítószert találtak a zárkájukban, ezért hármukat másik cellába akarták költöztetni. Az öt fogvatartott azonban nem tett eleget a holmija összekészítésére vonatkozó utasításnak, helyette az őröket fenyegette, amit felszólítás dacára sem hagyott abba.
A rabokat egyesével kiszólították a zárkából és megbilincselték őket. Két vádlott az utolsó felszólításkor, a beavatkozás megkezdése előtt önként abbahagyta a cselekményét, társaik azonban még a bilincseléskor is ellenállást tanúsítottak.
A bíróság az ellenállással végül felhagyó két vádlottra – a törvény által biztosított korlátlan enyhítés lehetőségét alkalmazva – egy évnél rövidebb végrehajtandó szabadságvesztést szabott ki. A három másik vádlott mindegyike három és fél év körüli szabadságvesztést kapott, egyiküket három évre ki is utasították Magyarországról.
Az ítélet ellen az ügyészség a minősítés megváltoztatásáért és hosszabb tartamú szabadságvesztések kiszabásáért, a vádlottak és védőik pedig felmentésért, enyhítésért fellebbeztek, ezért az eljárás másodfokon a Fővárosi Ítélőtáblán folytatódik – olvasható a közleményben.
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