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President Joe Biden’s abrupt announcement to terminate his presidential re-election campaign upended the U.S. political landscape just a few months before the November election. While foreign policy rarely features prominently in a presidential campaign, the start of his political downturn can be traced to the disastrous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. As we approach the third anniversary, the horrific scenes of chaos and confusion in Kabul will be revisited, and this unfortunate chapter in American foreign policy will torment his political legacy long after he leaves office. 

Although Biden enjoyed a “honeymoon period” at the start of his presidency, his approval rating noticeably dropped after the Afghanistan withdrawal, falling from 49 percent at the start of August 2021 to 43 percent a month later, according to Gallup polling. One year later, his approval rating plunged further to the 38 percent line, where it has languished since then. To be clear, Afghanistan was not the only factor affecting public opinion. The administration’s COVID-19 recovery policies created a sharp rise in inflation that compounded economic fears, intensified the (already fraught) political tensions in Washington, and exacerbated the sour mood of the country. Nevertheless, this foreign policy blunder provided an opening for his critics and political rivals to exploit during his re-election bid.

As I have written previously, President Biden deserves credit for ending America’s longest war. He concluded (correctly, in my view) that “nearly twenty years of experience has shown us that the current security situation only confirms that ‘just one more year’ of fighting in Afghanistan is not a solution but a recipe for being there indefinitely.” There was no clear path to “victory,” and the costs of continuing military operations in Afghanistan exceeded the benefits, especially given competing national interests in Europe (Russia) and the Indo-Pacific (China). Moreover, Biden inherited the flawed Afghanistan Peace Agreement from his predecessor, which included an infeasible deadline for withdrawing all U.S. forces by May 1, 2021. Although he subsequently extended the deadline, this did not provide nearly enough time to plan, coordinate, and execute an orderly retreat, as the administration would come to learn with horrendous consequences.

Some argue that President Biden should have maintained a small, enduring military footprint in Afghanistan (approximately 2,500 troops). Unfortunately, the Taliban would have likely viewed this as an abrogation of the agreement and created a daunting force protection challenge for U.S. troops remaining in the country. In fact, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley recently testified that he thinks “the probability is greater than not that the Taliban would have reinitiated combat operations.” In the White House, Biden described the choice in starker terms: “There was only the cold reality of either following through on the agreement to withdraw our forces or escalating the conflict and sending thousands more American troops back into combat in Afghanistan, and lurching into the third decade of conflict.” Shortly after the last U.S. troops departed Afghanistan, he took “responsibility for the decision” to terminate military operations in a war that “should have ended long ago.” While his words are commendable, Biden also deserves criticism for the conduct of the withdrawal itself.

Congress is investigating the botched withdrawal operation that resulted in the deaths of thirteen U.S. service members, including numerous interviews and hearings on the subject. Veterans testified about the “organizational failure at multiple levels,” a sentiment shared by senior leaders including Milley and former CENTCOM Commander General Kenneth McKenzie. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Mike McCaul (R-TX) bluntly concluded that “what happened in Afghanistan was a systemic breakdown of the federal government at every level—and a stunning, stunning failure of leadership by the Biden administration.” More recently, Gold Star family members appeared on stage at the Republican National Convention, where they criticized the chaotic withdrawal—and Biden—in a genuine display of emotion that captured the human costs of foreign policy decisions going awry. 

While these events keep Afghanistan in the public eye (and collective memory), they also raise a question of whether there is time for Biden to notch any major foreign policy “wins” on his scorecard to offset the withdrawal fiasco before he retires from office. Two obvious possibilities come to mind: the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

To his credit, Biden quickly pivoted from the debacle in Afghanistan by proactively responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and galvanizing international support to blunt President Vladimir Putin’s territorial ambitions. In addition to coordinating tough multilateral sanctions and increasing diplomatic isolation against Russia, his administration established the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a coalition of some fifty nations that has provided over $100 billion in foreign assistance and support to help Ukraine defend its sovereignty. 

Russia’s aggression also provided NATO with a renewed sense of purpose. The alliance just celebrated its seventy-fifth anniversary in Washington, DC, where President Biden proclaimed that “today, NATO is more powerful than ever” while emphasizing the importance of collective security to confront autocrats who “want to overturn global order.” Alarmed by Putin’s belligerence, previously “neutral” countries Finland and Sweden have joined the alliance. Moreover, twenty-three NATO member states are expected to meet or exceed the target of investing at least 2 percent of GDP in defense, compared to only three allies in 2014.

Despite dire predictions that Russia would seize Kiev in days or weeks, the war continues two years later. Additionally, Biden overcame months of stiff resistance from some Republicans in Congress to provide Ukraine with the resources to continue the fight. That said, Moscow retains a formidable military force in Ukraine with a resilient economy and deep resources. As a result, the situation remains a stalemate, with the stakeholders looking to November’s U.S. presidential election as a significant indicator of conflict resolution.

Notwithstanding intense domestic criticism (including members of his own political party), President Biden has maintained steadfast U.S. support for Israel following Hamas’s monstrous attacks on October 7, 2023, that killed 1,200 people and took some 240 people hostage. During his recent speech to a joint session of Congress, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed gratitude that “[Biden] came to Israel to stand with us during our darkest hour, a visit that will never be forgotten.” That said, the two leaders have clashed over the conduct of the nine-month-long war in Gaza. Biden reportedly pressed Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire agreement during their subsequent meeting at the White House.

Meanwhile, in Gaza, the Israeli Defense Force continues military operations to defeat Hamas militants, and civilians suffer the devastating collateral effects of the war. While ongoing diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire might succeed, a long-term political solution remains frustratingly elusive. Moreover, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and events such as the appalling rocket attack in the Golan Heights that killed twelve children and Israeli retaliation against Hezbollah could provoke a wider expansion of the conflict.

The next president of the United States will inherit a wide array of foreign policy challenges that will require difficult choices and tradeoffs. Although national interests and strategy can (and should) guide these decisions, the Afghanistan withdrawal serves as a reminder they also produce political consequences. While President Biden’s emotional address to the nation formalized the end of his political re-election campaign, his political misfortune began years earlier with the calamitous events in Afghanistan and the associated stigma of “strategic failure” after nearly two decades of conflict. Although his foreign policy legacy can be framed by an unwavering support for democracy and the global order, as well as an enduring commitment to alliances and partnerships in a time of tremendous strategic uncertainty and conflict, he will always be associated with this tragic episode in U.S. history.

Jim Cook is a Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College. The views expressed here are entirely his own and do not reflect those of the U.S. Naval War College, the Department of Defense, or the United States Government. Follow him on LinkedIn and X @jlcookri.

Image: Jonah Elkowitz / Shutterstock.com.

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Summary and Key Points: Russian Tu-95 bombers, escorted by Su-35S and Su-30SM fighters, recently conducted a 10-hour flight over the Sea of Japan, marking another strategic patrol amid heightened military activities.

-This follows a joint patrol with Chinese bombers near Alaska's Air Defense Identification Zone. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the operation complied with international airspace regulations, but did not specify which foreign fighters intercepted the bombers.

-This incident is part of Russia's increased bomber patrols in the region, with the Tu-95, a Cold War-era aircraft, continuing to play a crucial role in Moscow's long-range aviation strategy.

Russian Tu-95 Bombers Escorted Over Sea of Japan Amid Rising Tensions

Less than a week after Russian Tupolev Tu-95 and Chinese Xi'an H-6 bombers conducted a joint patrol near the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), the Russian Cold War-era long-range aircraft were deployed over the Sea of Japan on Tuesday.

"Two missile-armed Tu-95MS strategic bombers of the Russian Aerospace Force's long-range aviation have carried out a scheduled flight in the airspace over the international waters of the Sea of Japan. The flight lasted more than 10 hours," the Russian Ministry of Defense told state media outlet Tass while noting that the bombers were escorted by Sukhoi Su-35S and Sukhoi Su-30SM fighters.

"At certain stages of the route, the strategic bombers were escorted by foreign fighters," the ministry added. The flight followed international rules involving the airspace over the neutral waters. "Long-range aviation pilots regularly fly over the international waters of the Arctic, the North Atlantic, the Black and Baltic seas, and the Pacific Ocean."

International Response to Tu-95 Bear Bomber

Though the Kremlin acknowledged that the bombers were "escorted by foreign fighters," it didn't indicate which nations intercepted the Russian aircraft. However, according to a report from Stars & Stripes, South Korean jets "made sorties and the military took the necessary measure," while the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) also "scrambled fighters to intercept the Russian aircraft."

The exact type of fighters sortied by South Korea and Japan have not been confirmed.

This marks just the most recent offense in which Russian bombers took part in a flight over the Sea of Japan. Just last December, another pair of Russian Aerospace Force's Tu-95s were joined by two Chinese H-6 bombers and took part in a maritime patrol flight over the same waters. That air armada consisted of seventeen aircraft, a scene that the JASDF was quick to notice and respond to by scrambling its fighters to intercept the Russian and Chinese planes.

As with its flights to the waters near Alaska, Moscow has increased its bomber patrols in the Sea of Japan – often employing the Tu-95

The Old Bear Continues to Fly

The Tupolev Tu-95 (NATO reporting name Bear) is among the oldest aircraft designs still flying anywhere in the world, and it is further noted for being the only propeller-powered bomber currently in operation. The Russian Aerospace Forces operates the highly updated Tu-95MS variant, which was actually newly built at the latter stages of the Cold War.

Much like the United States Air Force's Boeing B-52 Stratofortress, the Tu-95 has been steadily upgraded and will likely remain in service well into the 2040s or later.

The choice of propeller-driven engines was made due to the fact that jet engines burned through fuel far too quickly, and the Soviet Air Force lacked the capability to refuel its bombers in flight. Instead of being a speedy bomber, the Tu-95 was noted for being able to fly slowly and steadily to get the job done. Moreover, it was among the only Soviet-era bombers that could fly a distance of 5,000 miles and strike targets within the United States from territory within its borders. The updated variants are reported to have a range that is greater than 9,300 miles (15,000 km).

Though the name "Bear" was originally employed by NATO, it was adopted by the Kremlin as the aircraft's official nickname. The bomber was also a symbol of pride for the Soviet Union and often was demonstrated at European Air Shows.

Despite its first entering service 70 years ago, the Tu-95 wasn't employed in combat until 2015 – when a pair of Tu-95s were used in a series of long-range airstrikes as part of the Russian military intervention in Syria.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Image Credit: Creative Commons and/or Shutterstock. 

Established in 2013 by the UN Security Council, the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) aimed to stabilize the situation in northern Mali, support the political transition, protect civilians, and promote human rights amidst ongoing conflict and instability. The mission’s mandate evolved over its ten-year tenure to address the changing political and security landscape, leading to its withdrawal at the request of the Malian government in 2023.

In this context, the International Peace Institute (IPI), the Stimson Center, and Security Council Report, with support from the German Federal Foreign Office and the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, organized a workshop to discuss takeaways learned from MINUSMA’s ten-year presence in Mali. Held on June 13, 2024, the workshop brought together UN officials, member states, civil society stakeholders, and independent experts to assess successes and challenges related to the mandate, with the objective to draw lessons from MINUSMA’s experience that could ensure more realistic, effective, and achievable mandates in future UN peace operations.

Key takeaways from the discussion include recognition of MINUSMA’s crucial role in supporting the 2015 Peace and Reconciliation Agreement, protecting civilians, and stabilizing urban centers. However, the mission faced significant challenges, particularly due to the lack of a stable peace to maintain and the volatile political environment following two coups. Despite its efforts to adapt, MINUSMA struggled with host-state consent, resource constraints, and the complexities of an asymmetric threat environment. The lessons learned from MINUSMA point to the importance of political consensus, multistakeholder partnerships, and realistic alignment between mandates and resources for the success of future peacekeeping missions.

Après les résultats des élections législatives, les sénateurs échafaudent leurs plans pour se rendre incontournables.

Le Pr Rambré Moumouni Ouiminga est décédé ce 31 juillet 2024 à 85 ans. Médecin en 1969, il est devenu le premier professeur agrégé de Haute-Volta en 1977 et le premier burkinabè agrégé de chirurgie en 1978.

Pr Rambré Moumini Ouiminga est également le père fondateur de la faculté de médecine de Haute Volta, actuel Burkina Faso en 1981, père fondateur de la faculté de médecine de l'Université Saint Thomas d'Aquin de Saaba en 2004 et ancien Secrétaire Général du CAMES. Il a aussi été l'un des premiers membres et Président du Comité d'Ethique National.

Grande figure de la médecine au Burkina Faso, Pr Ouiminga était également Doyen Honoraire de l'UFR des Sciences de la Santé, et Professeur émérite de l'Université de Saaba.

Note: ">Lire aussi : Littérature : Issaka Kaboré présente le Pr Ouiminga aux Burkinabè

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There has not been anything weird about Kamala Harris’ rollout of her campaign for the presidency. She’s moved swiftly to consolidate control over the delegates to the Democratic convention in Chicago, which will serve as a coronation if the elation surrounding her among Democrats is anything to go by. She’s also attacking Donald Trump head-on over immigration, claiming that he’s the one who has stymied real progress in choking off further influxes from Central and South America. A new poll from Bloomberg/Morning Consult suggests she has eliminated Trump’s polling lead in seven battleground states. Now, she is taking a leaf from the Trump playbook in delaying the announcement of her pick for vice president until next Tuesday. The longer she waits, the more she heightens the drama as various candidates, ranging from Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, try to catch her eye with public performances.

Will Harris be Walzing to victory? He’s come on strong with his disarming, folksy manner. Rather than accept the framing of the media or the GOP about him being too left-wing, he mocks the notion from the outset. “What a monster,” he declared after CNN’s Jake Tapper queried him about his support for free school breakfasts and lunches. The sixty-year-old Walz is a former social studies teacher with a long record of military service who has regularly won re-election in rural districts as a Congressman. His experience as both a legislator and a governor may offer some extra appeal for Harris, who will need a loyal lieutenant who can collaborate with Congress successfully. Republicans will pummel Walz over his support for abortion rights and for failing to send in the National Guard into the Twin Cities immediately after rioting erupted in the wake of the murder of George Floyd. But the biggest reservation that Harris will have in tapping Walz is the most obvious one—he doesn’t come from a swing state.

Josh Shapiro does. The fifty-one-year-old, whose speaking cadence sounds uncannily similar to Barack Obama’s, would accentuate the age contrast with Trump. Shapiro enjoys a 61 percent favorability rating in Pennsylvania. He is also a centrist who tends to attract the ire of the progressive left for denouncing American protesters of Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip. He has also lowered corporate tax rates. The question mark hovering over Shapiro is whether he would suppress the enthusiastic wave of enthusiasm that Harris is currently experiencing among progressives who might see him as too pro-Israel and too pro-business. But if you believe that Harris needs to run to the center and to lock down the state’s 19 electoral to buttress the Democratic blue wall—and many Democratic pundits do—then Shapiro is your guy. Harris is slated to make her announcement on Tuesday in Philadelphia, which might suggest that Shapiro occupies the pole position.

Then there is Arizona senator Mark Kelly, who would send what the Wall Street Journal is calling a “tough-on-the-border” signal. The former Navy combat pilot, astronaut, and border-state senator would bring a lot of heft to the ticket and isn’t mired in controversies over Israel and the Gaza Strip. Kelly isn’t known as an attack dog, but given the ferocity of Harris’ own speeches, maybe she doesn’t really need one. As her speech in Atlanta on Monday indicated, she has no inhibitions about taunting Trump.

For now, Harris’ own version of the Apprentice show will continue as she ponders whom to choose. As Harris demonstrates her media savvy, it can’t be a comfortable feeling for Trump, who has become habituated to framing the 2024 race. No longer.

About the Author: 

Jacob Heilbrunn is editor of The National Interest and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He has written on both foreign and domestic issues for numerous publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Reuters, Washington Monthly, and The Weekly Standard. He has also written for German publications such as Cicero, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and Der Tagesspiegel. In 2008, his book They Knew They Were Right: the Rise of the Neocons was published by Doubleday. It was named one of the one hundred notable books of the year by The New York Times. He is the author of America Last: The Right’s Century-Long Romance with Foreign Dictators.

Image Credit: Shutterstock. 

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Moussa Dadis Camara, qui a dirigé la Guinée pendant 12 mois entre 2008 et 2009, a été déclaré coupable de « crimes contre l’humanité » ce 31 juillet 2024 à Dixinn dans le cadre du procès des massacres survenus en 2009 dans la capitale guinéenne. Il a été condamné à 20 ans de prison. Le 28 septembre 2009, au moins 156 personnes avaient été tuées et des centaines d’autres blessées dans la répression d'un rassemblement de l'opposition dans un stade de Conakry et ses environs. Au moins 109 femmes avaient également été violées.

Le tribunal de Conakry a déclaré l'ex-dictateur Dadis Camara coupable de crimes contre l'humanité et l'a condamné à 20 ans de prison, mercredi, dans le procès historique du massacre du 28 septembre 2009 en Guinée. Le capitaine Camara, qui dirigeait la junte à cette époque, et ses co-accusés répondaient d'une litanie de crimes d'assassinats, violences sexuelles, actes de torture, enlèvements et séquestrations. 

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