Crisisgroup

Las dificultades crecientes para resolver la crisis surgida en la frontera entre Colombia y Venezuela muestran un fracaso preocupante de los mecanismos regionales para resolver pacíficamente las controversias internacionales. En los próximos días, todos los países de la región deberán hacer un esfuerzo por encarrilar esta discusión, obligar a todos a guardar calma, y proporcionar soluciones prácticas a la frontera entre Colombia y Venezuela.

China’s unsuccessful invitation to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to attend the 70th anniversary celebrations of the country’s Second World War victory over Japan was an example of diplomacy at its most passive-aggressive.

Political crises and violent protests rocked a number of countries in August, including Guatemala, Nepal, Lebanon and Iraq, where popular unrest threatens to topple the government and overturn the post-2003 political order. Deadly conflict worsened in Yemen, Afghanistan and Kashmir, while violence increased in Burundi following President Nkurunziza’s successful run for a third term, and instability remained the norm in the Central African Republic where UN peacekeeping efforts faced a series of setbacks. A border crisis also prompted a dangerous spike in tensions between Colombia and Venezuela. On a positive note, August saw a peace agreement in South Sudan, strengthened prospects for political and constitutional reform in Sri Lanka, and an important political agreement ahead of October elections in Guinea.

Guatemala is confronting a fast-moving crisis of political legitimacy, as prosecutors reveal new evidence that appears to implicate President Otto Pérez Molina and his former vice president in an allegedly massive tax fraud scheme. Powerful business and civil society organisations are calling for the president´s resignation. Almost twenty years after the end of a bloody civil war, Guatemala has an opportunity to overcome a legacy of impunity, weak institutions and crippled political parties. At the same time, there is a danger that hope could turn into frustration and even violence if political actors fail to respect constitutional rules, and those chosen in the 6 September elections for president and Congress ignore popular demands for justice and transparency.

Am 20. August 2015 legte Burundis Präsident Pierre Nkurunziza schnell und leise zum dritten Mal den Amtseid ab. Die Vereidigung war erst am selben Morgen angekündigt worden, und die in der Hauptstadt akkreditierten Botschafter aus Europa und den USA blieben ebenso demonstrativ fern wie die Vertreter der Afrikanischen Union. Mit Blick auf die Sicherheitslage und die hohe Zahl politischer Morde im August hatte man sich entschlossen, die Vereidigung rasch und ohne großes Aufheben durchzuziehen.

The violence at the Holy Esplanade accompanying the commemoration of the 9th of Av may have been a mere preview of the High Holidays in September. Dozens of young Palestinians barricaded themselves within the Al-Aqsa Mosque and attacked the Israel Police at the holy site with stones and firecrackers in order to prevent the ascension of religious Jews to the Temple Mount on the day marking its destruction.

Le 20 août, Pierre Nkurunziza a été investi pour la troisième fois. Son investiture, annoncée le matin même, a eu lieu presque en catimini et les ambassadeurs européens et américains accrédités à Bujumbura étaient visiblement absents tout comme l’Union africaine. La multiplication des assassinats en août a conduit la présidence à organiser l’investiture à la sauvette.

Joaquín Guzmán Loera -- better known by his alias "El Chapo" or "Shorty" -- has again lived up to his legend. With his spectacular escape from a high-security prison in Mexico, the notorious drug lord outdid his first jailbreak in 2001, when he reportedly snuck out hidden in a laundry cart. This time his exit from prison befitted a man reputed to head one of the world's most powerful criminal organizations: through a tunnel dug under his shower, extending nearly one mile, complete with ventilation and lighting.

A wave of protests has brought Iraq to the edge of yet more serious conflict. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has introduced sweeping reforms to halt the deterioration but in a manner that may make things worse. An important course correction is needed if he is to survive politically and Iraq is to avoid what could become in effect a military takeover.

Статья Елены Милашиной «Халифат. Приманка для дураков!», на примере дагестанского села Саситли рассказывающая о том, как устроен трафик наших граждан на войну в Сирию, спровоцировала бурную дискуссию в Сети. Эксперты и жители Дагестана обсуждают факты, оценки, выводы. Мнения разделились: кто-то рад, что наконец-то озвучена версия о том, как российские спецслужбы открыли радикально настроенной молодежи дорогу в ИГИЛ (организацию, запрещенную на территории России) и теперь делают все, чтобы разочаровавшиеся оттуда не вернулись.

Americans are divided over whether or not to accept the deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program. The numbers – deep cuts in enriched uranium stocks and centrifuges – and the most intrusive inspection regime ever make the deal look good. But even those who believe it defuses the Middle East's literally most explosive situation for nearly a generation – a world-politics eternity – must acknowledge that many Americans are dissatisfied.

US-ally Saudi Arabia is leading a war against Houthi rebels in Yemen. But after nearly five months, the Houthis have entrenched themselves in captured territory, al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) have gained ground, and the war has created a humanitarian catastrophe, with over 4,000 dead and aid agencies warning of impending famine.

The recent confirmation of the death of Mullah Mohammed Omar, the symbolic leader of the Taliban, has added fresh uncertainty to Afghanistan's fledgling peace process.

The military tide has turned against Huthi fighters in Yemen. Emboldened by recent gains, the Saudi-led coalition has started to push into the centre of the country from Aden, the southern port city taken in mid-July, and may even attempt to capture the capital, Sanaa, further north. To avoid a new and potentially more deadly phase of conflict, the Huthis should honour the concessions they made through UN mediation efforts in Muscat on 8-9 August, including among others a militia withdrawal from cities in accordance with Security Council Resolution 2216 (14 April). In turn, their opponents should accept a compromise that produces an immediate ceasefire, negotiations over the details of an orderly withdrawal of militias from cities and a return to a Yemeni political process to settle outstanding questions.

Disintegrating states and societies, decades of misrule, deepening sectarian polarization, dissolving borders, proliferating non-state actors, expanding civil wars, and a set of near-catastrophic humanitarian crises: The dynamics tearing up the Middle East and North Africa are terrifying enough.

On Friday, May 15, the Project on International Order and Strategy hosted a discussion about the current state of geopolitics and international peacekeeping. The conversation, a part of the Foreign Policy program’s Order from Chaos project, featured Jean-Marie Guéhenno, former United Nations’ undersecretary-general for peacekeeping operations. Guéhenno discussed his new memoir "The Fog of Peace: How International Engagement Can Stop the Conflicts of the 21st Century" (Brookings Institution Press, 2015). In his role as the U.N.’s lead peacekeeper, Guéhenno oversaw the largest expansion of peacekeeping missions in U.N. history. His insights into peacekeeping, international diplomacy, and great-power relations illuminated some of the challenges we face today, including the crisis in Syria, Russian aggression in Ukraine, and the accommodation of rising powers in a new world order.

Alors qu’une tentative de coup d’Etat contre Pierre Nkurunziza, émanant de l’ex-chef d’état-major, Godefroid Niyombaré, est en cours au Burundi, Thierry Vircoulon chercheur à l'International Crisis Group, explique qui est le général putschiste et analyse, plus généralement, l'appareil sécuritaire du Burundi.

September 11, 2001, started in New York as a particularly beautiful September day: there was not a single cloud, the air was transparent, and the light was crisp. I was less than three weeks away from the first anniversary of my joining the United Nations and had no sense of the momentous global changes that would be set in motion by the tragic events of the day. In his acceptance speech for the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo three months later, Kofi Annan would say of September 11, with some flourish: “We have entered the third millennium through a gate of fire.” The historic importance of events is not always immediately perceived, but September 11 was almost immediately understood as the beginning of a new era.

When the Cold War ended in 1991, there was hope the U.N. Security Council would be able to take decisive action to create a more peaceful world. Early blue helmet successes in Cambodia, Namibia, Mozambique, and El Salvador seemed to vindicate that assessment. This optimism was tripped up by the tragedies that followed in the former Yugoslavia, Somalia, and Rwanda. U.N. peacekeepers were bystanders to horrible atrocities. Peacekeeping shrank rapidly.

The nuclear agreement reached in Vienna on 14 July 2015 between Iran and the P5+1/E3+3 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) is a significant diplomatic achievement and a testament to the possibilities that principled and patient diplomacy hold for resolving even the most intractable international conundrums. Negotiated outcomes by nature are imperfect. But both sides have protected their core interests and rightfully can claim victory – a precondition for any sustainable solution.