Crisisgroup

Some may say John Lennon was a dreamer. But he wasn't the only one. Such was the sentiment of Lennon's 1971 hit song, "Imagine", which dreams of a world without hunger and wars. Although the song resonated with millions of people, I doubt there were many people, including myself, that believed such a dream was even remotely possible. Unfortunately, our world is made up of too many people with varying histories and agendas. I think most will agree, that Peace on earth and good will to man, just ain't gonna happen. At least not in absolute terms.

There is a notion cultivated by opponents of the Iran nuclear agreement, attractive to members of Congress under intense pressure to vote no, that congressional rejection of the agreement will enable U.S. negotiators to reach a better deal. The expectation is, that with a further turn of the screws, we can pressure the Iranians to give more and/or we give less. But it can’t happen.

While the increasing militarization of the South China Sea strains Asia-Pacific’s stability and security for the long term, the region’s humble fishing fleets pose more immediate, frequent, and less managed risks. If properly organized, however, those same fleets could offer one way to develop a culture of compromise and cooperation.

Venezuela está al borde del colapso, tanto en materia de salud, como económica y alimentaria. La comunidad internacional, especialmente la UNASUR, todavía está a tiempo de resolver una crisis que va camino de desbordar una débil Venezuela que necesita desesperadamente consenso político, crecimiento sostenible y bienestar social. Así lo describe el director para Latinoamérica de Crisis Group Javier Ciurlizza en esta entrevista a El Venezolano TV.

July saw a worsening of the situation in Yemen, where nearly 2,000 civilians have been killed since the war started in March, while in Turkey a dramatic escalation in violence led to the collapse of the state’s two-year-old ceasefire with Kurdish insurgents, and the launch of attacks on Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL) positions in Syria. Meanwhile, a surge in clashes in Kashmir aggravated tensions between India and Pakistan, attacks by IS-linked militants escalated in Egypt, and Cameroon and Chad were both targeted by deadly and potentially destabilising Boko Haram raids and bombings. In contrast, the Colombian government and FARC rebels took steps to bring the peace process back on course after a series of setbacks, and South Sudan is faced with a unique chance to negotiate an end to its devastating conflict. Lastly, the nuclear agreement reached between the P5+1/EU3+3 and Iran in mid-July, provided it is approved by lawmakers on all sides, could mark a historic victory for diplomatic efforts in the face of entrenched global security challenges.

As part of a series of Quick Thoughts with International Crisis Group Middle East analysts, Jadaliyya asked April Longley Alley, Crisis Group Senior Analyst for the Arabian Peninsula, to shed light on the causes and course of Yemen's conflict.

It is with sadness that Crisis Group has received the news that a former colleague and friend, Professor Stephen Ellis, died on 29 July 2015 after a tenacious fight with leukaemia. Stephen was Africa Program Director at Crisis Group from 2003 to 2004. During his time with us, he expanded our presence to Nigeria and South Africa and enriched our work, especially in West Africa. After leaving Crisis Group, he returned to the African Studies Centre in Leiden, Holland.

The tide is turning against the Houthis and troops loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh in the south of Yemen. But they and their adversaries now face a tipping point in the four-month-old civil war. Both can recognize that neither side can win outright, and choose peace. Or they can condemn the country to another bout of even more devastating conflict.

تحوّل ميزان القوى في جنوب اليمن ضد الحوثيين والقوات الموالية للرئيس السابق، علي عبد الله صالح. بات هؤلاء وخصومهم على عتبة نقطة تحوّل في الحرب الأهلية التي تدور رحاها منذ أربعة أشهر؛ فإما أن يدرك الطرفان أنه لا يمكن لأي منهما أن يحقق نصراً كاملاً، فيختاران السلام، أو أن يُدخلا البلاد في أتون موجة جديدة من الصراع الأكثر تدميراً. بعد حصول المقاتلين على دعم عسكري يتمثل في عتاد جديد، وقوة جوية وتدفق مقاتلين يمنيين تم تدريبهم في السعودية، تمكّنوا من الاستيلاء على المطار الدولي في المدينة والمناطق المحيطة به في 14 يوليو/تموز. ويبدو أنهم على وشك تعزيز سيطرتهم على عدن للمرة الأولى منذ وصل الحوثيون إلى مشارف المدينة في أواخر مارس/آذار 2015.

Lebanon’s much-vaunted resilience in the face of the regional turmoil around it conceals a disturbing complacency that simultaneously preserves and undermines its increasingly fragile state. The conflicts raging in neighbouring Syria and beyond have to some extent played to its advantage, shifting the locus of a Saudi-Iranian standoff away from Beirut. Syria’s civil war also offers powerful cautionary reminders to a country that recently went through 15 years of similar collective disaster. The military supremacy of Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Shia armed movement and political party, has also deterred the latter’s domestic and regional foes from directly challenging it.

On 7 July 2014 Israel launched Operation Protective Edge (OPE), its most devastating assault on the Gaza Strip since the 1967 June War. Nathan Thrall, Senior Analyst with the International Crisis Group who regularly conducts research in the Gaza Strip, reflects on the ramifications of this conflict one year later. This instalment of Quick Thoughts is the first of a series Jadaliyya is conducting with Crisis Group Middle East analysts.

On 14 July 2015 in the Austrian capital Vienna, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif jointly announced the conclusion of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between Iran, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and United States), Germany and the European Union (EU). Later that same day the presidents of Iran and the US, Hassan Rouhani and Barrack Obama, gave televised addresses hailing the agreement that crowned almost two years of intensive negotiations, primarily in Austria, Oman and Switzerland. As part of a series of Quick Thoughts with International Crisis Group Middle East analysts, Jadaliyya asked Ali Vaez, Crisis Group Senior Analyst for Iran, to interpret the substance and context of what is commonly known as the Iranian nuclear agreement.

La estabilidad libia pasa por el éxito del acuerdo de Skhirat con la creación de un Gobierno de unidad nacional, basado en el consenso entre los partidos principales.

The migrants trying to reach Europe give a renewed urgency to the debate on intervention: Can there be islands of peace and prosperity in an ocean of turmoil and despair? For the last 15 years, the answer was a resounding no. The unprecedented growth of UN peacekeeping operations, which saw the number of peacekeepers deployed increase from a few tens of thousands to more than 100,000, embodied a new activism of the international community.

En Syrie, en Irak, la progression des djihadistes de l’EI continue de mettre à nu la vacuité des choix de la coalition internationale. Longtemps en poste à Damas, Peter Harling, de l'International Crisis group, analyse ce fiasco comme une absence de stratégie, non pas militaire, mais de reconstruction du pays. « On ne se pose pas le problème du jour d’après », estime le chercheur.

The appearance of Colonel Gulmurod Khalimov in an Islamic State propaganda video on May 27 sent a chill across Central Asia. The head of Tajikistan's Special Assignment Police Unit (OMON), a key element in President Emomali Rahmon's security apparatus, had disappeared shortly before. In the video he promised to return to wage violent jihad.

Un grupo de hombres armados dejó atado a un prisionero en campo abierto en Afganistán, cogió un lanzagranadas y utilizó a la víctima como blanco para prácticas de tiro. Otro grupo reunió a hombres y niños, los encerraron en una mezquita y, acto seguido, fue casa por casa robando y violando mujeres. En otro lugar, una banda apresó al hombre más respetable de la aldea –un señor de barba canosa que se atrevió a quejarse acerca de su comportamiento– y lo arrastró atado a una camioneta hasta que murió.

Kabul — One band of Afghan gunmen tied up a captive in an open field, picked up rocket-propelled grenade launchers, and used the victim for target practice. Another group rounded up men and boys and confined them in a mosque, before going house-to-house to steal valuables and rape women. Elsewhere, a bunch of gunmen took the most respected elder of a village — a white-bearded gentleman who dared to complain about their behavior — and dragged him behind their pickup truck until he was dead.

From a distance, it looks deceptively like summer camping season in this country’s capital. Men play cards and drink beer by their colorful tents across the street from Parliament. A larger, younger crowd encamped in front of the government building listens to lively music.

Testimony to Helsinki Commission Hearing, U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe.