Crisisgroup

The international community’s hope that a unity government could take the lead in fighting IS has remained just that: a hope. It is not likely to be fulfilled anytime soon if the world’s focus remains on securing a top-down political deal. The implementation of the Libyan Political Agreement is already stalling, just as the talks that preceded it stalled until Western and regional powers imposed it on largely recalcitrant Libyan stakeholders. This situation was predictable as long as diplomatic efforts continued to focus on Libyan political actors who are unable to bring along most of their supporters.

The 6 December parliamentary election in which the Venezuelan opposition won a landslide victory and a two-thirds legislative majority, combined with the ongoing economic meltdown, should have encouraged a more conciliatory stance by the government and a mutual search for a basic political agreement. But it has not, and the country is very near political and economic implosion. As the risk of an extra-constitutional response by either side or a military coup increases, the Organization of American States (OAS) should take up the matter urgently and prepare an emergency political and humanitarian initiative to prevent serious violence and a collapse that would bring instability to the region and deepen the misery of Venezuelans themselves.

One of the most dangerous elements of Ukraine’s nearly two-year-old conflict remains the unpredictability of its neighbour Russia’s tactics. Despite repeated expressions of support for the Minsk peace process and recognition of Ukraine’s sovereignty over the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR, LNR), Moscow’s current actions in eastern Ukraine seem designed to strengthen those entities than prepare them for dismantlement.

Die vielen Flüchtlinge belasten das Projekt EU. Um die Finanzkrise zu lösen, brauchte es nur Geld. Nun geht es um mehr: um unsere Werte. Eigentlich eine Stärke Europas!

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have announced an agreement for immediate humanitarian aid for besieged areas in Syria and a cessation of hostilities to begin within one week. The measures could relieve the northern city of Aleppo, which faces a civilian crisis amid a siege aided by Russian air power and foreign militias backing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. But the agreement was cast in terms that make hopes for a national cease-fire likely premature, says Noah Bonsey, senior Syria analyst for the International Crisis Group. The broader effort to negotiate a political transition may continue to founder, he adds, because the pro-Assad forces are making progress in their military push.

A finales de los ochenta, en Mapiripán empezó a hacer presencia el frente 39 de las FARC. Desde eso, el municipio ha vivido el conflicto armado como ningún otro lugar de los Llanos Orientales.

How should the world respond to the extending reach of radical movements like Islamic State, al Qaeda and Boko Haram across today’s battlefields?

Hay cosas que el Gobierno y las FARC no podrían hacer por sí solos, y esto justifica la presencia de Naciones Unidas. Pero quedan preguntas y asuntos por resolver en los próximos días.

The month saw an intensification of Yemen’s war, amid heightened regional rivalries between Saudi Arabia and Iran complicating prospects for peace. Political tensions increased in Haiti, Guinea-Bissau and Moldova, where protests over endemic corruption and a lack of confidence in the government could escalate. In Africa, Boko Haram’s deadly attacks increased in northern Cameroon, and Burkina Faso was hit by an unprecedented terror attack. On the nuclear front, in East Asia, North Korea’s announcement that it had carried out a successful hydrogen bomb test was roundly condemned, while nuclear-related sanctions on Iran were rolled back in accordance with the July 2015 deal.

Nel corso dell’ultimo anno i movimenti estremisti violenti hanno ottenuto alcune impressionanti vittorie. Il gruppo Stato islamico (Is) ha consolidato il suo controllo su una larga porzione dell’Iraq e della Siria, attirando decine di migliaia di stranieri, affermandosi in altri territori ed effettuando attentati terroristici in Medio Oriente e altrove. Le succursali di Al Qaeda in luoghi come Yemen, Siria e Somalia si dimostrano resistenti e in certi casi più forti che mai.

The refugee crisis is morphing into one about the very nature of the European project. This is far more critical for the Union than the euro crisis, which, ultimately, could be resolved with a show of financial solidarity and money. The refugee issue, however, strikes at the heart of the values that underpin EU members’ core political solidarity.

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon pays lip service to democracy, but his presidency is characterised by economic and social stagnation exacerbated by venality and mismanagement. The only meaningful opposition party, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), has been banned and labelled terrorist. Fraudulent elections and dozens of arrests in 2015 have silenced political foes and an exiled opposition leader was even murdered in Turkey in March. Activists fear harassment and NGOs “operate in a high risk, uncertain environment”.

Predicting what will start a war, and when, is an unrewarding business. Long-term trends (‘causes’) are often clear enough, but not the proximate causes, or triggers. We can assess the comparative significance of competition for resources, hunger for power, the nature of political systems, the psychology of leaders. What precipitates a conflict, though, may be a sudden, unforeseen event: an accident, misreading or miscalculation, or a temperamental leader’s flash of hubris. Often, of course, it is a combination of such things. Yet there is nothing inevitable about the outbreak of conflict.

Escribir sobre el futuro es un negocio arriesgado. La bola de cristal está agrietada; las fuentes son escasas; las extrapolaciones, dudosas. Pero no resulta mucho más fácil recordar la historia reciente, o comprender qué ha estado pasando exactamente. Cuanto más cerca estamos del pasado, más opaco aparece este.

In the Horn, where cash-strapped regimes often teeter on the brink of financial survival and alliances are made and broken with bewildering regularity, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has found willing partners as Saudi-Iranian tensions escalate.

El presidente tayiko, Emomali Rahmon, habla mucho de democracia, pero su presidencia se ha caracterizado por un estancamiento económico y social, agudizado por la corrupción y la mala gestión. El único partido de oposición con verdadero peso, el Partido del Renacimiento Islámico de Tayikistán (PRIT), ha sido prohibido y tachado de terrorista. Las elecciones fraudulentas y docenas de detenciones en 2015 han callado a los adversarios políticos, y en marzo asesinaron en Turquía a un líder de la oposición en el exilio. Los activistas temen el acoso de las autoridades, y las ONG “actúan en un entorno incierto y de alto riesgo”.

Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, Crisis Group’s Co-Chair, joins Jonathan Prentice, Crisis Group’s London Office Director and Senior Advocacy Adviser, at an event in London’s Chatham House on 19 January 2016 to present the 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2016. In his speech, Lord Malloch-Brown addresses the changing nature of conflicts, increased multi-polarity of the international system and ongoing rise of non-state armed groups which will continue to affect the crises of today.

Las Naciones Unidas han celebrado su 70 aniversario y la cuestión esencial de la reforma del Consejo de Seguridad permanece abandonada, pese al número de iniciativas lanzadas, tanto por los think tanks como por otras instituciones, los Estados miembros y la secretaría de la organización. Y esto pese a que el Consejo de Seguridad y su reforma han sido objeto de un encendido, largo e infructuoso debate durante al menos 20 años. Con ocasión del 70 aniversario de la ONU y la reunión del G20 [Antalya, Turquía, 15-16 de noviembre de 2015] los esfuerzos por la reforma podrían haber ganado tracción, para asegurar que se escucha a un mayor número de voces, reflejo del mundo actual.

筛选出十个最需要国际社会关注和支持的冲突是一项极其艰难的任务，背后的原因严峻而令人遗憾。冷战结束后的20年间，致命的冲突总体呈下降趋势，战争渐稀，杀戮减少。但五年前，这一积极态势开始反转。每年都有更多冲突爆发，更多人口死伤，更多流民背井离乡。 同2015年相比，2016年的世界局势难有改观：战争——而不是和平——势头正盛。

Over the past year, violent extremist movements have made striking gains. ISIS has consolidated its control over a large swathe of Iraq and Syria, attracting tens of thousands of foreigners, establishing footholds elsewhere, and perpetrating terrorist attacks across the Middle East and beyond. Al Qaeda affiliates from Yemen to Syria to Somalia appear resilient, in some cases stronger than ever. ISIS’s attacks in the West – apparently centrally coordinated in the case of Paris, perpetrated by lone wolves elsewhere – have upped pressure on Western powers to respond more forcefully. Certainly, more can be done to fight ISIS. But any action must be informed by an accurate diagnosis of the problem and must avoid the mistakes of the past.