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Quelle : © Europäische Union, 2022 - EP

By Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury
SINGAPORE, Aug 22 2022 (IPS-Partners)

Coral Bell, one of the finest strategic thinks of contemporary times had famously, but somewhat optimistically, advocated that peace-treaties be written without first fighting the wars. Her image of a ‘crisis slide’ saw the process beginning when adversaries are persuaded that there is no way out other than going to war. Thereafter it becomes an inexorable descent to the abyss of a military conflict. This simple but incontrovertible logic was extrapolated from her perception of global politics through the lens of a ‘classical realist’. So, can it be argued that China and the United States are slowly but surely approaching this dangerous watershed point? Rapidly evolving events following Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent trip to Taiwan sadly point to this possibility.

Dr. Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury

What led to the Pelosi visit was probably the outcome of a complex interplay of domestic and international politics. Certain American scholars such as Graham Allison, Morton Halperin and others have opined that US policies are often the outcome of cumbersome bargaining between government agencies. Pull and pushes are exerted by different agencies upon the principal state executive to produce a certain result. So, by definition, the consequence is not preceded by an entirely rational process. Henry Kissinger had written that in the US foreign policy was but a series of moves and manoeuvres that have produced a result originally not planned for. Broadly this paradigm in decision-making has been referred to a “Bureaucratic Politics”. Actors in the system, therefore, do not necessarily conform to a consensually agreed upon behaviour pattern in the State’s external dealings. Speaker Pelosi and President Joe Biden represented two distinct pillars of State, the legislative and the executive, though the ultimately responsibility resides in the President, who is the embodies the US to the world beyond. They may not see eye to eye regarding many institutional, or even personal interests, and hence the outcome in the form of the Pelosi visit to Taiwan.

The visit is now over. But the dust from the storm it raised is far from settling down. There is also no telling when that would come about and if at all. The backdrop of the issue is a complex one. China has always claimed Taiwan as a renegade island-province with a destiny of union with the mainland. Now the US had shifted its diplomatic recognition of the Chinese state from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 under the “One China “principle. This generally acknowledges that Taiwan is a part of China. That also initiated an era of cooperation between the two powers, the US and China. China took advantage of the calm in their relations, tweaked its policies of socialism to achieve phenomenal economic and strategic growth and power, now being seen as the rising challenger to the sole hyperpower. Inevitably competition trumped collaboration with frequent verbal hostilities. China believed US was chipping away at the “One China” policy when thrice he stated last year that the US would fight to defend Taiwan if China attacked it, even though, the White House walked back on it. Naturally on all sides, including Taiwan, hawks and doves emerged in the governance system.

Nancy Pelosi was a hawk. An anti-China posture provided a modicum of unity across the aisle, a rarity in current US politics, and naturally as Speaker she relished the opportunity to forge it. Mid-term elections were upcoming, and popular causes were in demand at home or abroad. Besides, Pelosi was 82, an age at which most public figure contemplate leaving behind a heritage. So, despite some wariness from Biden as well as the Pentagon, she chose the option that demonstrated obvious moral, and even physical (as security was also a factor). She plumbed for the visit. When China warned retaliation, many on the US side publicly thought it was a bluff worth being called. Thus, China saw itself placed in a situation where it was damned if it reacted and damned if it didn’t. It was a textbook ‘crisis slide’ situation as imagined by Coral Bell.

So, China reacted, and how! It reacted in three ways. First against Taiwan. Almost immediately it launched massive unprecedented live -fire military drill, for the first time, flying ordnance cross Taiwan. The manoeuvres included large number of warships, fighter jets and bombers, also featuring latest military hardware, including J-20 stealth fighters, and DF-17 hypersonic ballistic missiles. The exercises, some of which continue at writing, were conducted from six zones, encircling the entirely island, simulating a blockade in a possible future invasion of the island. The Chinese operated across the ‘median line’ along the Taiwan straits, which earlier they had respected, if not in theory, at least in practice, breaking an unofficially accepted taboo. On the economic and commercial side China stopped export of sand for construction and import of some kind fruits and fishes, said to be mainly from the constituency of the Taiwanese President, Tsai ling-wen, who is reputed to be pro-independence.

More significant perhaps for the world were the second set of measures directed against the US. China suspended all talks on crucial issues of climate change, cooperation on drug control, combating transnational crime and repatriation of illegal immigrants. The dialogues and working meetings between military leaders were also scrapped. A consultative mechanism on maritime military security was also ended. These actions are bound to have extremely negative ramifications for peace, security, and stability of the region. For good measure China also slapped stiff personal and targeted sanctions on Pelosi, her travel mates, and their families. Pelosi’s grandson reportedly queried if that would mean his ticktock subscription is ended! The Chinese, using social media, were said to have responded that the implications extended to hundreds of millions of dollars of an investment company that Pelosi’s husband was closely linked with, with huge interests in Hongkong and China. That would be a sobering thought for many! It was now a battle with no holds barred!

As was anticipated, the US felt compelled to be involved in a tit-for-tat retort. The White House declared that the country was set to conduct new “air and maritime transits” in the Taiwan Straits during the coming weeks. It reiterated the oft cited language (which could be indicative if a measured tone) that the US would “continue to fly, sail and operate where international law allows., consistent with our longstanding commitment to freedom of navigation”. So, some of this is bound to happen, and it should surprise no one. Also, the second visit of the US legislators to Taiwan, less than two weeks after Pelosi’s, though low-keyed, was meant to make the point that the Chinese military exercises will not be a deterrent to the US. But the circu8mstances this time round would be different and more dangerous, as the earlier ‘confidence building measures ‘(CBMs) are no longer in place, and any accident could lead to catastrophic consequences.

It is to be noted that in some ways China, too, as its own ‘bureaucratic politics’. President Xi Jinping is set to secure an unprecedented third term in office later this year that could consolidate his power for the entirety of his lifetime. His aim to bring the ‘China Dream’, or Zhao Guomeng, a set of complex prescriptions for ‘national regeneration, is forcing him to tread a path different from the liberal economics of the Deng Xiaoping era. This entails slowing growth to spread its fruits among a wider matrix, a policy that surely would have opposition, however unarticulated within the apparently monolithic Chinese Communist Party. What would be seen in China as Xi’s crowning glory would be the reunification of the mainland and Taiwan. As of now it is thought to be left to “a later generation”. Should Xi perceive a burgeoning tendency on Biden’s part to whittle down the “One China principle”, he may decide to advance the reunification action.

So, can a war be avoided? Can the two major protagonists concerned be prevented for inexorably marching into battle, mainly because they have, by their words and actions, walled off all the pathways leading out of the battlefield? It would be much more than a huge pity if that were to happen. It would help if all parties could better understand the compulsions of the other, including the need to sometimes behave in a manner that is overtly irrational. That would entail an extremely sophisticated analysis of perceptions, and management of missteps under trying circumstances. However, it is to be expected that nations claiming superpower ranking should be capable of that. There is not much else that can be done to make the possibility of war less probable.

This story was originally published by Dhaka Courier.

Germany's inflation rate could surge over 10 percent this autumn, the highest in 70 years, the country's central bank chief Joachim Nagel told the Rheinische Post on Saturday. His comments came just after Russian state gas giant Gazprom announced an unscheduled three-day shutdown of the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline that sends natural gas to Europe from 31 August to 2 September.

Macédoine du Nord : une réforme de la justice arrachée aux forceps
Lutte anti-corruption : en Macédoine du Nord, clap de fin pour le Bureau du procureur spécial
Macédoine du Nord : la justice anti-corruption en voie de liquidation ?
Macédoine : destitution du Procureur général Marko Zvrlevski, un fidèle du VMRO-DPMNE

/ Courrier des Balkans, Macédoine du Nord, Défense, police et justice

Macédoine du Nord : une réforme de la justice arrachée aux forceps
Lutte anti-corruption : en Macédoine du Nord, clap de fin pour le Bureau du procureur spécial
Macédoine du Nord : la justice anti-corruption en voie de liquidation ?
Macédoine : destitution du Procureur général Marko Zvrlevski, un fidèle du VMRO-DPMNE

/ Courrier des Balkans, Macédoine du Nord, Défense, police et justice

A two-day forum in Nakuru brought together a host of state and non-state actors, who collectively, were mandated to ensure Kenya’s elections will be safe and free from violence. Credit: UN Women/Luke Horswell, January 2022

By Gabriel Odima
MINNESOTA, USA, Aug 22 2022 (IPS)

Once again, Kenya finds itself at a crossroads. The current events in Kenya illustrate how and why electoral malpractices and not democracy and human rights are the leading form of governance in Africa.

A large number of leaders in Africa, both temporal and spiritual, are not strongly committed to constitutional rule. Every time there is electoral malpractices, especially in Kenya, there are always politicians eager and willing to give homage to a fraud in exchange for appointments to offices.

What appears to be the hidden agenda is beginning to emerge in Kenya. The very sad events in Kenya have some similarities and connections with the events in the neighboring Uganda.

There is much blanket talk about peaceful transition of power in Kenya without addressing the Elephant in the room (the electoral fraud). The Rt. Hon. Raila Odinga former Prime Minister of Kenya has rejected the outcome of the Presidential election.

The fact that four Commissioners have come out and exposed the fraud at the IBEC, the body that is charged with conducting elections in Kenya is a smoking gun. Any attempt by the international community, international media and African governments to offer legitimacy to the Deputy President William Ruto before the Kenyan Supreme Court settles the matter is premature and a dangerous move for the country.

The current situation in Kenya reminds me of what happened in Nigeria. The scourge of democracy in Africa soon came into scene. The candidate who should have been sworn in as president, Mr. Masudi Abiola, was sent to jail by the military and died there on charges of treason simply for claiming victory in election which many in Nigeria believed Mr. Abiola had won. Former president Obasanjo, was among several politicians who were thrown in jail for questioning the electoral fraud.

Kenya should stand as a lighthouse for democracy in Africa. Many scholars argue that democracy is not the answer to Africa’s problems. To a certain degree, I agree with such statements that democracy alone cannot guarantee African nations’ happiness, prosperity, health and peace and stability.

In fact, modern democracies also suffer greatly from many defects. But in spite of the flaws, we must never lose sight of the benefits that makes democracy more desirable than fraudulent elections.

As for the assertion that Dr. William Ruto won the presidential election “itself stands tainted” the reality of the electoral malpractices is now known in its essence, namely that the Rt. Hon. Raila Odinga former Prime Minister of Kenya has rejected the results of the Presidential elections 2022.

The contradiction in the presidential results of 2022 demonstrates the misery of Kenyan electoral body (IEBC). This action by the electoral body (IEBC) not only haunts the establishment of democracy, but also creates a hostile environment which can lead to political instability and bloodbaths in Kenya.

There is a policy move to anoint Dr. William Ruto as President-elect in the Republic of Kenya. Such policy will fail the people of Kenya in their search for harmony among themselves should it accept the current presidential results as the sole voice of the people of Kenya.

To do so would be to flout international law, to ordain the electoral fraud, or exempt and favor those who messed up the presidential results with their mentors and collaborators.

The cause of democracy and the enjoyment by the citizens of human rights and freedoms have and will continue to suffer so long as the international community gives support and credibility to electoral fraud across Africa.

The commitment of indigenous African peoples to protect their interests in peace and through political parties has been impressive and must stand as a leading pillar and vehicle in any endeavor for transformation in Africa towards political development.

The first African political party to be formed in Africa south of the Sahara was the African National Congress (ANC). It was formed in 1912. Just as the Africans had pinpointed, then confronted, the inequities of the apartheid system of governance through their political parties, these inequities later became the concern of the international community.

In South Africa, the ANC (having been banned, its leaders imprisoned, killed and scattered in exile), was able, within a very short time after disbandment to assert itself as the voice of the oppressed and win handsomely the first non-racial multiparty elections in South Africa in 1994.

In agreeing to form a government of national unity, the ANC became a vehicle for transformation towards a milieu of unity, peace, stability and democracy in South Africa.

Finally, between the Great Lakes and the Horn of Africa, Kenya has been and continues to be an island of peace, despite the challenges facing democracy in terms of electoral malpractices in Kenya.

Rev. Gabriel Odima is President & Director of Political Affairs, Africa Center for Peace & Democracy, Minnesota, USA

E-mail: africacenterpd@aol.com

IPS UN Bureau

Russian energy giant Gazprom said it will close the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from August 31 to 2 September for maintenance. The pipeline supplies natural gas from Russia to Europe. "It is necessary to carry out maintenance every 1,000 hours" of operation, Gazprom said in a statement on August 19. The closure comes amid record high gas prices in Europe, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The leaders of France, Germany, UK and the US on Sunday discussed a plan to revive the 2015 deal with Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions. A White House statement said "they had they discussed ongoing negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, the need to strengthen support for partners in the Middle East region, and joint efforts to deter and constrain Iran's destabilising regional activities."

The government in Montenegro fell on Saturday, following a no-confidence vote over a row with the country's Serbian Orthodox church, AFP reports. MPs voted 50 to one to oust the government of prime minister Dritan Abazović. It came after he signed a deal regulating the property rights of the church, the largest faith in Montenegro, which split from Serbia in 2006. The nation is divided over the church's dominant role.

Opinion-poll approval for German chancellor Olaf Scholz has dropped to 25 percent, from 46 percent in March, according to figures out Sunday, Reuters reported. Some 62 percent of Germans think Scholz — deputy chancellor under Angela Merkel in the previous ruling coalition — is doing his job badly. Since taking power, his social democrat-led coalition has been hit by the war in Ukraine, soaring energy prices, and a likely recession.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz has hailed his country's three-month trial of a national €9 transport pass as a "big success", and announced talks on a follow-up. The ticket allowed unlimited transport on the country's buses, local trains, trams and undergrounds for the months of June, July and August, to offset the cost of living crisis, with only high-speed intercity trains excluded. The FDP warned it cost €14bn in subsidies.

Credit: World Food Programme (WFP)

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Aug 22 2022 (IPS)

The ominous warnings keep coming non-stop: some of the world’s developing nations, mostly in Africa and Asia, are heading towards mass hunger and starvation.

The World Food Programme (WFP) warned last week that as many as 828 million people go to bed hungry every night while the number of those facing acute food insecurity has soared — from 135 million to 345 million — since 2019. A total of 50 million people in 45 countries are teetering on the edge of famine.

But in what seems like a cruel paradox the US Department of Agriculture estimates that a staggering $161 billion worth of food is dumped yearly into landfills in the United States.

The shortfall has been aggravated by reduced supplies of wheat and grain from Ukraine and Russia triggered by the ongoing conflict, plus the after-effects of the climate crisis, and the negative spillover from the three-year long Covid-19 pandemic.

While needs are sky-high, resources have hit rock bottom. The WFP says it requires $22.2 billion to reach 152 million people in 2022. However, with the global economy reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic, the gap between needs and funding is bigger than ever before.

Controlling the loss and waste of food is a crucial factor in reaching the goal of eradicating hunger in the world. Credit: FAO

“We are at a critical crossroads. To avert the hunger catastrophe the world is facing, everyone must step up alongside government donors, whose generous donations constitute the bulk of WFP’s funding. Private sector companies can support our work through technical assistance and knowledge transfers, as well as financial contributions. High net-worth individuals and ordinary citizens alike can all play a part, and youth, influencers and celebrities can raise their voices against the injustice of global hunger,” the Rome-based agency said.

In 2019, Russia and Ukraine together exported more than a quarter (25.4 percent) of the world’s wheat, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).

Danielle Nierenberg, President and Founder, Food Tank told IPS the amount of food that is wasted the world is not only a huge environmental problem–if food waste were a country, it would be the third largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions.

But food waste and food loss are also moral conundrums. It’s absurd to me that so much food is wasted or lost because of lack of infrastructure, poor policymaking, or marketing regulations that require food be thrown away if it doesn’t fit certain standards.

This is especially terrible now as we face a worldwide food crisis–not only because of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, but multiple conflicts all over the globe.

“We’ve done a good job over the last decade of creating awareness around food waste, but we haven’t done enough to actually convince policymakers to take concrete action. Now is the time for the world to address the food waste problem, especially because we know the solutions and many of them are inexpensive,” she said.

Better regulation around expiration and best buy dates, policies that separate organic matter in municipalities, fining companies that waste too much, better date collection around food waste, more infrastructure and practical innovations that help farmers.

“And there are even more solutions. We can solve this problem–and we have the knowledge. We just need to implement it,” said Nierenberg.

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said last November food waste in the United States is estimated at between 30–40 percent of the food supply.

“Wasted food is the single largest category of material placed in municipal landfills and represents nourishment that could have helped feed families in need. Additionally, water, energy, and labor used to produce wasted food could have been employed for other purposes’, said the FDA.

Effectively reducing food waste will require cooperation among federal, state, tribal and local governments, faith-based institutions, environmental organizations, communities, and the entire supply chain.

Professor Dr David McCoy, Research Lead at United Nations University International Institute for Global Health (UNU-IIGH), told IPS the heartbreaking image of food being dumped in landfills while famine and food insecurity grows, must also be juxtaposed with the ecological harms caused by the dominant modes of food production which in turn will only further deepen the crisis of widespread food insecurity.

“The need for radical and wholesale transformation to the way we produce, distribute and consume food has been recognized for years. However, powerful actors – most notably private financial institutions and the giant oligopolist corporations who make vast profits from the agriculture and food sectors – have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. Their resistance to change must be overcome if we are to avoid a further worsening of the hunger and ecological crises, he warned”.

Frederic Mousseau, Policy Director at the Oakland Institute, told IPS that according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global food production and stocks are at historic high levels in 2022, with only a slight contraction compared to 2021.

“Skyrocketing food prices seen this year are rather due to speculation and profiteering than the war in Ukraine. It is outrageous that WFP has been forced to expand its food relief operations around the world due to speculation, while also having to raise more funds as the costs of providing food relief has increased everywhere”, he said.

Mousseau pointed out that WFP’s costs increased by $136 million in West Africa alone due to high food and fuel prices, whereas at the same time, the largest food corporations announced record profits totaling billions.

Louis Dreyfus and Bunge Ltd had respectively 82.5% and 15% jump in profits so far this year. Cargill had a 23% jump in its revenue. Profits of a handful of food corporations that dominate the global markets already exceed $10 billion this year – the equivalent of half of the $22 billion that WFP is seeking to address the food needs of 345 million people in 82 countries.

At a press conference in Istanbul, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres held out a glimmer of hope when he told reporters August 20 that more than 650,000 metric tons of grain and other food are already on their way to markets around the world.

“I just came back from the Marmara Sea, where Ukrainian, Russian, Turkish and United Nations teams, are conducting joint inspections on the vessels passing through the Black Sea on their way in or out of the Ukrainian ports. What a remarkable and inspiring operation.”

“I just saw a World Food Progamme-chartered vessel – Brave Commander – which is waiting to sail to the horn of Africa to bring urgently needed relief to those suffering from acute hunger. Just yesterday, I was in Odesa port and saw first-hand the loading on a cargo of wheat onto a ship.

He said he was “so moved watching the wheat fill up the hold of the ship. It was the loading of hope for so many around the world.”

“But let’s not forget that what we see here in Istanbul and in Odesa is only the more visible part of the solution. The other part of this package deal is the unimpeded access to the global markets of Russian food and fertilizer, which are not subject to sanctions.”

Guterres pointed out that it is important that all governments and the private sector cooperate to bring them to market. Without fertilizer in 2022, he said, there may not be enough food in 2023.

Getting more food and fertilizer out of Ukraine and Russia is critical to further calm commodity markets and lower prices for consumers

“We are at the beginning of a much longer process, but you have already shown the potential of this critical agreement for the world.

And so, I am here with a message of congratulations for all those in the Joint Coordination Centre and a plea for that vital life-saving work to continue.

You can count on the full commitment of the United Nations to support you,” he declared.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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The leaders of the United States, Germany, France and the UK held a conference call on Sunday, where they discussed Ukraine's Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, amid an evacuation of some 1,000 nearby residents.

German economy minister Robert Habeck said he would not consider extending the lifetime of the country's last three remaining nuclear power plants to save gas.

Nyolcszoros életfogytiglani börtönre ítélte az Iszlám Állam brit gyilkosát, a Beatlesnek nevezett terrorsejt egyik tagját egy amerikai bíróság.

El Shafee Elsheikh az Iszlám Állam eddigi legmagasabb rangú tagja, akit az Egyesült Államokban bíróság elé állítottak. Elsheikh-et áprilisban mondta ki bűnösnek az esküdtszék nyolc vádpontban négy amerikai túsz – James Foley, Steven Sotloff, Kayla Mueller és Peter Kassig – haláláért és megkínzásáért.

A bíró mind a nyolc vádpontban életfogytiglani börtönbüntetést szabott ki, kikötve, a vádlott nem kerülhet feltételes szabadlábra. A túszejtők a négy amerikai foglyuk közül három – két újságíró és egy segélymunkás – lefejezését videóra vették, majd az interneten bemutatták. A negyediket, egy segélyszervezet munkatársát kínzásnak és többször megerőszakolták, majd megölték.

Az egyik áldozat, James Foley édesanyja az ítélethirdetés után azt mondta, az “igazság egy apró részét visszakapták”. Hozzátette: az ítélethirdetés napja fia lefejezésének nyolcadik évfordulójára esett. A Beatlesnek nevezett négytagú terroregység valamennyi tagja Londonban nőtt fel. A férfiak önként csatlakoztak az Iszlám Államhoz Szíriában, ahol nyugati foglyokat őriztek, kínoztak és gyilkoltak meg. Az amerikai hatóságok 27 fogoly lefejezésével hozták összefüggésbe őket.

Elsheikh-et és egyik társát, Alexanda Kotey-t 2018 januárjában Szíriában fogták el. Egy másik tag, Mohammed Emwazi még 2015-ben egy légitámadásban meghalt, a negyedik férfi, Aine Davis börtönben van.

 

The post Nyolcszoros életfogytigalni börtönre ítélték az Iszlám Állam brit gyilkosát appeared first on .

Asylum proceedings are one of the biggest issues with the EU's migration policy, and digital identification through blockchain to register and track refugees would be an instrumental step towards the level of necessary reform.

Die Junior-Koalitionspartei Freiheit und Solidarität (SaS) hat Finanzminister Igor Matovič (OĽaNO) zu Beginn des Sommers ein Ultimatum gestellt: Er soll entweder bis Ende August zurücktreten oder SaS scheidet aus der Koalition aus, wodurch baldige Neuwahlen drohen.

Polen hat die von einem deutschen Labor aufgestellte Theorie, wonach die Verschmutzung der Oder, bei der Tausende von Fischen starben, durch Pestizide im Wasser verursacht wurde, als Fake News abgetan.

Der Schutz des Meeresbodens müsse mit der Fischereitätigkeit vereinbar sein. Deshalb sei eine "ausgewogene Lösung" zwischen den beiden Konzepten in der Europäischen Union erforderlich, sagte der spanische Minister für Landwirtschaft, Fischerei und Ernährung, Luis Planas.

Konservative und Linke haben sich in Ostdeutschland mit der rechtsextremen AfD zusammengetan, um die Bundesregierung zu kritisieren.