Food prices in 2027 are being influenced by choices made this spring, on farms and in capitals. Credit: Shutterstock
By Maurizio Martina
ROME, May 6 2026 (IPS)
Across Europe, winter wheat is already in the ground. What farmers apply in the coming weeks will determine the size of this year’s harvest. Those decisions are now being made under a sudden surge in costs that did not exist when seeds went in.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February disrupted energy and input markets that European agriculture cannot avoid. Within days, tanker traffic fell by 90 to 95 percent. European natural gas prices rose by 70 to 75 percent in the first week, with prices approaching double pre-conflict levels by mid-March.
Meanwhile Brent crude began the year at $61 per barrel and finished Q1 at $118, the largest quarterly price increase on an inflation-adjusted basis in data going back to 1988.
Farmers need immediate, targeted support to sustain the use of fertilizers and other key inputs during this narrow window, and governments should act to keep trade in agricultural inputs open while mobilizing rapid financing for countries under pressure
These shifts shape the cost of energy that underpins farming, from machinery and irrigation to the production of nitrogen fertilizers. At the same time, disruptions to Gulf fertilizer exports—representing roughly 20 to 30 percent of globally traded supply—pushed prices higher across all markets.
Europe, though not directly dependent on Gulf producers, buys into this global price system while also facing higher domestic production costs linked to gas. The result is a sustained increase in input costs at the precise moment farmers decide how much nitrogen to apply, decisions that will shape yields at harvest and are already beginning to set the direction of food prices into 2027.
Two priorities now shape the outcome. Farmers need immediate, targeted support to sustain the use of fertilizers and other key inputs during this narrow window, and governments should act to keep trade in agricultural inputs open while mobilizing rapid financing for countries under pressure.
These measures can still stabilize planting decisions and protect yields. Without them, higher input costs will translate directly into reduced application, lower production, and tighter food supply later in the year.
Rising fertilizer costs are already forcing farmers to adjust input use, with direct consequences for yields and food supply later in the year.
When fertilizer prices rise and liquidity tightens, farmers apply less nitrogen. Lower input use reduces yields. The impact does not appear immediately. It becomes visible at harvest, when production falls below potential, and later in markets, when supply tightens and prices rise. By then, the decisions that shaped the outcome cannot be reversed.
European agriculture enters this crisis with already thin margins and limited capacity to absorb further cost increases. Farmers have faced prolonged financial pressure since the 2022 input cost surge, with rising costs only partially offset by prices.
Climate variability and regulatory pressures add further uncertainty. The current surge compounds these conditions and risks eroding confidence at a critical moment. The resilience of European agriculture depends on whether farmers can absorb shocks of this scale without reducing investment or output.
A further pressure sits at the intersection of energy and food markets. Rising oil prices increase the attractiveness of biofuels, drawing crops such as maize and vegetable oils toward fuel production. This tightens food supply and raises prices further. Europe is deeply integrated into this system. Energy volatility feeds directly into agricultural markets, linking geopolitical risk to food prices and inflation.
The window for action remains open, but it is narrowing. Nitrogen has not yet been fully applied. Spring planting across parts of Europe is still underway. Acting now can limit the damage. Waiting until harvest will not.
The immediate priority is to sustain production. Farmers require timely and proportionate support to maintain input use, particularly fertilizers, during this critical phase.
Current policy responses have focused largely on fuel through tax cuts, price caps and targeted subsidies, while support for fertilizers and broader agrifood inputs remains limited. Existing instruments provide a foundation, but the scale and speed of the shock call for greater flexibility. Clear signals of support, combined with measures to ease liquidity constraints, can influence decisions now and reduce the risk of a contraction in output.
Europe’s response must also extend beyond its borders. As a central actor in global agricultural markets, it has both an interest and a responsibility to support stability. Maintaining open trade in agricultural inputs is essential. Export restrictions imposed by several countries risk shifting the burden onto more vulnerable economies. Europe should lead in opposing such measures.
Access to financing remains critical. Instruments such as the International Monetary Fund’s Food Shock Window can provide rapid support to countries facing acute pressure. Complementary approaches, including the Financing for Shock-Driven Food Crisis Facility facilities developed within the Food and Agriculture Organization, enable earlier and more proactive responses before shocks deepen and spread.
Over the medium term, countries should diversify fertilizer supply sources and strengthen regional coordination. Over the longer term, resilience will depend on more efficient input use, investment in alternative production methods such as green ammonia, and reduced dependence on volatile energy markets. Food production should be treated as a strategic asset, alongside energy and infrastructure.
The decisions taken now will shape outcomes far beyond Europe. Food prices in 2027 are being influenced by choices made this spring, on farms and in capitals. Farmers are adjusting under pressure. The question is whether the response they receive matches the urgency of the moment.
Excerpt:
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Après trois ans au pouvoir sans grandes difficultés, le gouvernement de Giorgia Meloni traverse pour la première fois une période plus difficile, aussi bien sur le plan national, avec la défaite lors du référendum sur la justice des 22 et 23 mars 2026, que dans ses choix de politique étrangère.
La coalition dite de centre-droit de Giorgia Meloni vient d’entrer dans l’histoire politique italienne comme le deuxième gouvernement le plus long de l’histoire républicaine du pays. Cette solidité est due à un électorat fidèle — Fratelli d’Italia reste stable dans les sondages, à 30 % — mais aussi à une politique plus modérée qu’attendue, qui limite les critiques de l’opposition. Néanmoins, la défaite au récent référendum sur la justice a forcément un impact psychologique sur les électeurs et sur l’éthos de la présidente du Conseil, qui paraissaient intouchable. Ce résultat est à prendre en compte non pas par rapport aux électeurs de droite, qui ont semblé rester fidèles à la dirigeante, mais du côté de l’électorat de l’opposition — gauche et Mouvement 5 étoiles — qui a vu, avec cette victoire du « non », qu’une majorité était atteignable si les idées présentées sont claires et le combat commun. La présidente du Conseil a perdu en stabilité ces dernières semaines, et le socle qui lui assurait une maîtrise de la scène politique s’est fissuré : Giorgia Meloni doit donc rendre des comptes de ses choix précédents, et corriger certaines stratégies politiques.
Trump, un allié devenu encombrantGiorgia Meloni voulait être le pont entre l’Europe et les États-Unis. Si son rapport privilégié avec la Maison-Blanche était perçu de manière positive sous Joe Biden, il l’est nettement moins sous Donald Trump. Résultat : ce lien avec le Tycoon a fortement freiné les collaborations diplomatiques de l’Italie avec ses principaux partenaires européens. Donald Trump a totalement déstabilisé l’échiquier mondial, devenant un ami bien encombrant dans le cadre d’une unité européenne en matière de relations internationales, notamment pour le soutien à l’Ukraine. Sur ce point, le problème reste toutefois relatif : le gouvernement italien dans son ensemble — sauf Matteo Salvini — a toujours condamné l’attaque russe contre l’Ukraine, gagnant ainsi des points auprès de l’électorat plus modéré, mais laissant des doutes chez les électeurs les plus souverainistes, souvent prorusses. En contradiction avec l’image proeuropéenne de Giorgia Meloni, son soutien apporté à Viktor Orbán lors des élections législatives hongroises n’a pas non plus aidé à renouer des rapports avec les partis et dirigeants modérés ou progressistes de l’Union européenne.
Giorgia Meloni a donc cherché à maintenir une forme de cohérence électorale et stratégique : rester fidèle à ses alliés politiques, comme Viktor Orbán, sans pour autant rompre avec la ligne pro-ukrainienne défendue par l’Union européenne. Mais cet équilibre, pensé pour parler à la fois à son électorat souverainiste et à ses partenaires européens, s’est révélé peu rentable dans la collaboration avec ses principaux alliés. Un risque réel pour l’économie italienne, qui peine à repartir — une croissance d’environ 0,5 % — et qui, plus que jamais, a besoin de regagner la confiance de ses partenaires. L’Italie est en effet un pays de transformation : l’augmentation du coût de l’énergie a un impact immédiat sur son économie et sur le coût de sa production. Sans un rapport privilégié avec les pays voisins, le Bel Paese pourrait se retrouver avec un manque de matières premières ou des stocks d’invendus problématiques, à cause d’un coût à la vente bien trop élevé.
Giorgia Meloni devait donc trouver une solution — un prétexte ? — pour rompre le pont qu’elle avait cherché à construire entre l’Union européenne et les États-Unis et en reconstruire un autre, entre elle et les principaux partenaires européens. L’altercation et la joute verbale entre le président des États-Unis et le pape Léon XIV ont offert à Giorgia Meloni une occasion inespérée de se libérer de cette amitié devenue bien trop embarrassante. Elle a donc pris ses distances avec l’administration américaine, ce qui, par la même occasion, la rapproche de la ligne directrice soutenue par les principaux dirigeants de l’Union européenne.
Cependant, la situation n’est pas aussi simple pour Giorgia Meloni, car l’Italie a sur son territoire deux grandes bases militaires essentielles dans le cadre des interventions au Proche et au Moyen-Orient, en particulier la base de Sigonella, en Sicile. Cette présence militaire sur l’île complique la situation, car elle expose directement l’Italie à de potentielles représailles, d’autant que, dans le même espace stratégique sicilien, se trouve le MUOS (Mobile User Objective System), un système de communication par satellite de la marine américaine. Giorgia Meloni veut s’éloigner de Donald Trump, mais elle doit maintenir des liens avec l’exécutif américain afin d’avoir une idée des risques que l’Italie encourt dans l’escalade militaire au Proche et au Moyen-Orient.
Il fallait aussi, pour Giorgia Meloni, composer avec son soutien à Viktor Orbán lors des dernières élections législatives hongroises. Avoir soutenu de manière aussi forte l’ex-Premier ministre n’est pas sans conséquence, la majorité des dirigeants européens ayant soutenu l’opposition. Cette situation apparaît cependant comme un faux problème pour les souverainistes italiens, qui rappellent que le vainqueur des élections hongroises est également issu de la droite. Ce qui était un soutien à Viktor Orbán est à présent présenté comme une simple préférence de candidat : le résultat reste tout de même satisfaisant pour la droite souverainiste italienne, qui prend des airs de droite modérée.
Entre majorité inconfortable et opposition revigoréeLa leader de Fratelli d’Italia doit aussi gérer les alliés de sa coalition gouvernementale. Le référendum sur la justice était principalement à l’initiative de Forza Italia— le parti fondé par Silvio Berlusconi —, et l’échec de cette réforme met Giorgia Meloni en porte-à-faux par rapport à son ministre des Affaires étrangères, Antonio Tajani. Matteo Salvini tente quant à lui d’exister médiatiquement, mais ses tentatives de revenir sur le devant de la scène sont généralement infructueuses, voire contre-productives, aussi bien pour lui que pour le gouvernement. Son soutien, peu voilé, à Vladimir Poutine est aussi une épine dans la cuirasse de cette coalition.
Giorgia Meloni n’est pas en grande difficulté, malgré un premier déboire électoral, mais ses alliés de coalition pourraient se transformer en poids si la tendance actuelle se confirme. Cette situation — une première depuis l’arrivée de Fratelli d’Italia au pouvoir — donne à l’opposition un nouvel élan : la victoire du « non » au référendum montre que la droite souverainiste italienne n’est pas imbattable.
Si gagner lors d’un référendum est une chose, composer un programme électoral cohérent malgré les compromis en est cependant une autre. Un mouvement plus positif et enthousiaste semble toutefois (re)naître : même les partis centristes — Azione de Carlo Calenda et Italia Viva de Matteo Renzi — semblent avoir une certaine propension à accepter un accord pour une large coalition. Difficile pour autant d’imaginer un accord stable et certain entre tous ces acteurs, tant les divergences sont grandes : alors que Giuseppe Conte (Mouvement 5 étoiles) maintient des positions contre le soutien militaire à l’Ukraine et contre certaines orientations de l’Union européenne, Carlo Calenda s’est fait tatouer sur le bras le trident ukrainien.
Une nouvelle figure montante de la gauche italienne pourrait aussi donner une nouvelle dynamique à cette gauche plurielle. Silvia Salis, actuelle maire de Gênes, semble promise à une ascension dans les rangs de l’opposition, et pourrait potentiellement réussir le difficile pari de rallier tous les partis progressistes. Une tâche ardue : les précédentes expériences de large coalition de centre gauche — de L’Ulivo à L’Unione de Romano Prodi — ont montré la difficulté de tenir ensemble des forces très différentes. Le second gouvernement Prodi, né en 2006, n’avait ainsi tenu qu’un peu moins de deux ans.
Giorgia Meloni est donc bien entrée dans une nouvelle phase politique, mais pas nécessairement dans une phase de rupture. Sur le plan national, la présidente du Conseil semble vouloir rester fidèle à la stratégie qui lui a permis de s’imposer : une coalition de droite maintenue sous contrôle, un électorat souverainiste rassuré, et une image institutionnelle plus modérée que prévu. En revanche, c’est sur le terrain international que la correction apparaît la plus nette. L’amitié avec Donald Trump, comme le soutien affiché à Viktor Orbán, ont montré leurs limites dans un contexte où l’Italie a besoin de crédibilité européenne et de confiance économique. Giorgia Meloni ne renonce donc pas à son identité politique, mais elle semble contrainte d’en rééquilibrer l’expression : moins de proximité visible avec les alliés les plus problématiques, plus de centralité européenne. La nouvelle phase melonienne n’est pas celle d’un affaiblissement immédiat, mais celle d’un ajustement nécessaire.
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By CIVICUS
May 6 2026 (IPS)
CIVICUS discusses the status of political prisoners in Venezuela with Manuel Virgüez, director of Movimiento Vinotinto, a Venezuelan human rights organisation that works for citizen empowerment, democracy and justice.
Manuel Virgüez
On 3 January, US special forces abducted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and took him to New York to stand trial on narco-terrorism charges. Instead of supporting the opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia, rightful winner of the 2024 presidential election, the Trump administration backed Maduro’s vice-president Delcy Rodríguez as interim president. Rodríguez signed an amnesty law in February, but hundreds of political prisoners remain in detention.What’s the status of political prisoners?
Following the 2024 presidential election, the state detained around 2,000 people as part of what it called Operation Tun Tun. In early 2026, around 1,000 remained in detention, although various organisations put the total at between 950 and 1,200, depending on the classification criteria they use. Since 8 January, when Jorge Rodríguez, President of the National Assembly, announced imminent releases, and following the approval of an amnesty law, that number has fallen to around 450.
Among those released were human rights defender Rocío San Miguel, activist Javier Tarazona and journalist Eduardo Torres. The vast majority of those released were members of civil society or political activists. On 16 April, it was unofficially reported that around 50 former employees of Petróleos de Venezuela, detained in 2025, had been released. If this is confirmed, the current number of political prisoners remaining would be around 380.
The group that remains in detention consists mainly of dissident military personnel and former public officials. The authorities are reluctant to release them because they pose a direct threat to the regime’s stability. They are the ones who have suffered the worst treatment: various organisations, including Movimiento Vinotinto, have documented enforced disappearances, inhuman treatment, torture and persecution of family members. In some cases, people remained missing for weeks or months, with no knowledge of their whereabouts or whether they were still alive. These are some of the most serious violations recorded in recent decades in Venezuela.
How did these arrests differ from previous ones?
Two things distinguished them from previous waves of repression. The first was the abusive use of the concept of ‘eradication’, provided for in the Organic Code of Criminal Procedure, to transfer all cases to courts in Caracas. People detained in states such as Bolívar, hundreds of kilometres from the capital, were required to appear there. This was an unprecedented violation of the procedural principles of Venezuelan law. Not even in the 1960s, in the face of guerrilla movements, was there such a concentration of cases in a single court.
The second thing was the criminalisation of everyday acts. The state used anonymous reports via mobile apps to identify and arrest people, and a simple WhatsApp status update could be treated as an act of terrorism. The presumption of innocence ceased to exist in practice and the burden of proof was reversed: it was the detainee who had to prove they were not guilty.
What does the amnesty law entail and what does it exclude?
The law provides for the closure of cases linked to political events from different periods in Venezuelan history. This is no minor matter. After years of mass detentions and restrictions on freedom, the state implicitly acknowledges that those people should not have been imprisoned. The credit goes, above all, to the detainees’ families, human rights organisations and the international community.
But the law falls short. It does not provide for any mechanism of redress for those who were unjustly detained. Nor does it provide for the restitution of property. Many political prisoners had their businesses, homes and vehicles confiscated and won’t recover them on release. The law also offers no clear guarantees for those in exile. On 16 April, former legislator Alexis Paparone returned to Venezuela and was detained for several hours before being brought before a court, demonstrating that returning remains risky.
The law effectively excludes dissident military personnel and makes no provision for the thousands of politically motivated dismissals that have taken place, in violation of International Labour Organization Convention 111, nor for political disqualifications. As long as leaders such as María Corina Machado are unable to exercise their political rights, there can be no talk of a genuine transition.
What conditions are required for a genuine democratic transition?
There can be no reconciliation without justice. What Venezuela has experienced is one of the darkest periods in South America’s recent history. Bringing victims and perpetrators together without a prior process of accountability is not reconciliation; it is impunity. Where there’s no justice, there’s vengeance, and that generates endless cycles of violence. Societies that have not dealt with their crimes have carried that wound for generations.
For there to be justice, profound institutional reform is needed: in the armed forces, the electoral system, the judiciary and the public prosecutor’s office. Cosmetic changes are not enough. It will be a long-term process, but the first steps must be taken to call general elections and move towards real economic recovery.
What’s possible, and necessary, is a pact of coexistence: an agreement to respect the constitution and live without mutual persecution. But such a pact requires the Chavista regime to acknowledge its mistakes and its crimes. Without that, any transition will remain incomplete.
Even so, I am optimistic. Venezuelan civil society, despite all it has lost, remains standing. There are signs that something is changing, and we must seize this opportunity. I’m confident that we will be able to lay the foundations for a democracy that says ‘never again’ to authoritarianism.
CIVICUS interviews a wide range of civil society activists, experts and leaders to gather diverse perspectives on civil society action and current issues for publication on its CIVICUS Lens platform. The views expressed in interviews are the interviewees’ and do not necessarily reflect those of CIVICUS. Publication does not imply endorsement of interviewees or the organisations they represent.
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Venezuela: ‘People once again believe they can influence what happens in their country’ CIVICUS Lens | Interview with Pedro González Caro 29.Mar.2026
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By Toril-Iren Pedersen and Michael Jarvis
WASHINGTON DC / OSLO, May 6 2026 (IPS)
A conversation with Toril-Iren Pedersen, Director of the UNDP Global Policy Centre for Governance, and Michael Jarvis, Executive Director of the Trust, Accountability, and Inclusion (TAI) Collaborative
Q1: What is financial integrity and why is it important right now? Why is it relevant to TAI’s members?
Toril-Iren Pedersen
Toril-Iren Pedersen: Financial integrity is about ensuring that the financial system operates transparently and accountably, and that economic and financial activity follows both the letter and spirit of legitimate rules and standards. It also means ensuring that those systems contribute to sustainable development.For us, the issue is not limited to one category of wrongdoing. It is about the connection between different parts of economic value, from public revenues to criminal flows, and the loopholes that exist within the regular financial system. Financial integrity cannot be considered in isolation. Weaknesses across tax, corruption, anti-money laundering and the broader global financial architecture all have to be understood together.
Michael Jarvis: At TAI, we see financial integrity as the need for systems to operate transparently, accountably and ethically. That is how people ideally manage their personal finances, and how we hope corporations run their businesses. But we are especially focused on governments and countries: how they strengthen the integrity of their financial systems, minimize corruption, encourage fairness and better steward public resources.
There is a clear development case for why this matters. TAI’s members are primarily U.S.-based philanthropies working internationally, and our work is organized around three priorities: strengthening healthy democracies, advancing climate accountability and improving fiscal accountability through fair and effective financial governance. Financial integrity underpins all three. Without it, progress in each area is weakened.
Michael Jarvis
There is also real urgency. Economic crime is increasingly transnational and has expanded rapidly, in part because of new technologies. A recent NASDAQ Verafin report estimated global financial crime at $4.4 trillion. UN research has found that illicit financial flows cost Africa at least $50 billion a year. These are resources that countries should be able to use for development priorities such as education, health systems and environmental protection.When financial systems lack integrity, the damage is broad. It undermines trust in government, contributes to democratic disillusionment and weakens citizens’ confidence that public resources are being used fairly. It can also slow the energy transition, as we have seen with concerns around carbon markets. And it directly affects the ability of governments to raise and spend revenue effectively.
Toril-Iren Pedersen: I would add that declining trust in governments and in the multilateral system is higher than we have seen in a very long time. Lack of financial integrity contributes directly to that distrust.
Visible wealth inequality is one challenge, but so is the perception of invisible wealth being accumulated through the global financial architecture. When people sense that wealth is moving in the shadows, outside transparency and democratic control, it creates legitimate grounds for distrust. That is why lack of financial integrity must be understood as a systems failure that requires a systems approach.
Michael Jarvis: That is also the focus of the new paper from your team, the UNDP Global Policy Centre for Governance, which TAI supported. It emphasizes why progress requires action on multiple fronts and why no single actor or institution can solve this alone. Financial integrity is a collective action challenge.
Q2: How has UNDP’s Global Policy Centre for Governance worked on financial integrity over the past few years? What were your most important results and insights?
Toril-Iren Pedersen: The Centre’s work has taken place across several streams, but the most important contribution has been analyzing the system and the relationships among different actors. When we look at corruption and illicit financial flows, we have to ask who enables those flows within countries and across borders. Understanding those relationships is central to financial integrity.
The Centre has also convened actors within the UN and among practitioners, including country representatives involved in the Financing for Development negotiations in Sevilla last summer. That process helped produce stronger commitments to curb illicit financial flows and introduced more substantive language on financial integrity and corruption than we had seen in earlier iterations of the Financing for Development agenda.
The analytical work on the financial integrity ecosystem and the systems approach has also been developed in collaboration with several TAI members, including the MacArthur Foundation and Ford Foundation. Their support has been important both substantively and financially.
Q3: How will the Centre work on financial integrity going forward, under your leadership?
Toril-Iren Pedersen: The Centre has worked on a range of governance frontier issues. Going forward, we will focus on two areas: financial integrity, and data systems and data availability at the country level. The data agenda connects directly to financial integrity, but it also has broader relevance.
On financial integrity, we see a need to problem-solve the systemic challenges that are preventing progress at both the country and global levels. We will continue analyzing what is stopping countries from making substantive progress and what kinds of solutions and policy alternatives can be made available to them.
Some of these solutions already exist, but they are not always accessible. As a UNDP Policy Centre, our role is to make research, policy options and insights into systemic challenges available to UNDP country offices so they can be integrated into country-level programming. We also hope this work will help countries engage more effectively in global processes.
There is currently a disconnect. The Financial Action Task Force, the OECD tax framework and anti-corruption frameworks all rely on data from countries, but they do not always help solve what is fundamentally a systems challenge. We will continue engaging in those processes while breaking the work into more manageable areas where countries can take action nationally, regionally and globally.
Q4: What is the role of philanthropy in strengthening financial integrity against the backdrop of a fast-evolving global development landscape? What collaboration opportunities do you see between philanthropies, multilateral organizations and other stakeholders?
Michael Jarvis: Philanthropy’s role is a nimble one. The volume of finance philanthropy brings is not the same as government donors or what countries can mobilize themselves. The question is how philanthropy can prompt the right conversations and support work that moves the agenda more effectively.
Traditionally, philanthropy has supported civil society groups, independent media and think tanks at the global and national levels. Those actors investigate financial integrity issues, build evidence, raise public awareness and develop policy recommendations for governments and multilateral forums.
Philanthropy also has limits. Individual donors, including TAI members, often focus on a relatively small number of priority countries. They are not operating at a scale that covers all countries affected by these issues. That is where the UN system and international financial institutions can play a different role, because they work with nearly every country and have government relationships built into their mandates.
There are important complementarities. The MacArthur Foundation, for example, has made a major investment in Nigeria around financial integrity and anti-corruption, working with government agencies while also supporting civil society and media. More broadly, different actors bring different relationships, mandates and capacities.
The Financing for Development process in Sevilla is a good example. The outcome was stronger because many players were involved, from civil society groups working in-country to global and regional convenings that reinforced the message. Those efforts helped shape the negotiations and elevate financial integrity on the agenda.
An important opportunity is the Illicit Finance Summit, being hosted by the UK Government in June. It can bring together governments committed to addressing financial integrity challenges and create space for civil society, academia, philanthropy and others to develop practical solutions. Philanthropy should be part of that conversation and think about where its support can amplify or pilot ideas that emerge.
Visibility also matters because it helps attract resources. Funding for financial integrity work remains very limited. In a 2023 analysis, TAI estimated that about $150 million had been directed to illicit financial flows work since 2020, including efforts to address tax avoidance.
That averages roughly $30 million a year across different groups, countries and sectors. Compared with the scale of the problem, and compared with funding for fields such as climate or AI, that is extremely small.
The upcoming summit could serve as a call to action for philanthropy and other funders to invest more. The rise in fraud enabled by crypto and other technologies affects people directly and is creating grassroots demand for action. Partnership will be essential, including with UNDP, the World Bank, national governments, civil society and research networks.
Toril-Iren Pedersen: I agree. We need to mobilize more resources, but it is also important to recognize what has already been achieved with limited funding. Much of the momentum for change over the past 10 to 15 years has come from civil society organizations, journalist networks and collaborative investigations around leaks. Those efforts helped put issues such as tax fairness, transparency and beneficial ownership on national and global agendas.
This field has shown that limited resources can have an outsized effect when actors from different parts of the ecosystem work together. Anti-corruption, tax fairness and anti-money laundering were once treated as separate silos. Bringing those communities together around shared solutions is a cost-effective way of working.
Going forward, we also need to connect financial integrity to other development priorities, including climate finance and health financing. Each sector has its own financial integrity challenges. With the current development financing crunch, we cannot afford to leave money on the table, and we cannot afford to let resources disappear when policy action could prevent it.
Q5: Is there a case for involving the business community? What would the message be?
Toril-Iren Pedersen: Yes. Governance investments are one area we will be looking at closely. There is enormous pressure to mobilize funding from private actors and the private sector. Much of the focus has been on ensuring that specific investments comply with human rights and development standards. That remains important.
But financial integrity is also about longer-term systems de-risking. Investments in anti-corruption mechanisms, laws that reduce corruption risk and dispute-resolution frameworks can make markets more attractive for private investment. The goal is to build systems where private actors face lower real or perceived risk and can operate without relying as heavily on facilitated investment support.
In that sense, we need to distinguish between short-term and long-term de-risking, and between project-level and systems-level de-risking.
Michael Jarvis: There is a strong private sector incentive to support financial integrity, especially for companies operating across borders. But there is also a quid pro quo: corporate actors need to uphold their own standards of financial integrity. That includes thinking responsibly about the taxes they pay in different jurisdictions and avoiding excessive profit shifting.
The private sector benefits from stronger financial integrity systems, but it also has responsibilities within them. Beneficial ownership transparency is one example where progress has helped make it easier to identify who is behind corporate structures. These structures are still misused, but many legitimate private sector actors increasingly recognize that transparency can help distinguish them from bad actors and reduce reputational risk.
All of us have a role in the system. The challenge now is to make a clear case for why financial integrity deserves continued investment, government attention and policy bandwidth, especially at a time of aid cuts, foreign assistance pressures and tight country budgets. That is a collective challenge, and one we need to keep elevating.
IPS UN Bureau
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