Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

The refugee self-reliance agenda is marked by tensions and contradictions, echoing wider incoherence in the international refugee regime. We explore these through the philosophical concept of paradoxes. Paradoxes allow for multiple interests and narratives to be simultaneously ‘true’, leading to refugee policy outcomes that are often incoherent by omission instead of commission. To illustrate this, we draw on recent empirical studies to examine how increased access to digital technology can paradoxically lead to less access and agency in relation to health and financial services for refugees and less integration into host community life. We call these the paradox of information overload and the paradox of regulatory systems. We close with discussion of how paradoxes can a conceptual tool for policy makers and researchers to identify root causes of refugee policy incoherence, and how spaces of action can be created to ‘manage the paradox’.

The refugee self-reliance agenda is marked by tensions and contradictions, echoing wider incoherence in the international refugee regime. We explore these through the philosophical concept of paradoxes. Paradoxes allow for multiple interests and narratives to be simultaneously ‘true’, leading to refugee policy outcomes that are often incoherent by omission instead of commission. To illustrate this, we draw on recent empirical studies to examine how increased access to digital technology can paradoxically lead to less access and agency in relation to health and financial services for refugees and less integration into host community life. We call these the paradox of information overload and the paradox of regulatory systems. We close with discussion of how paradoxes can a conceptual tool for policy makers and researchers to identify root causes of refugee policy incoherence, and how spaces of action can be created to ‘manage the paradox’.

The refugee self-reliance agenda is marked by tensions and contradictions, echoing wider incoherence in the international refugee regime. We explore these through the philosophical concept of paradoxes. Paradoxes allow for multiple interests and narratives to be simultaneously ‘true’, leading to refugee policy outcomes that are often incoherent by omission instead of commission. To illustrate this, we draw on recent empirical studies to examine how increased access to digital technology can paradoxically lead to less access and agency in relation to health and financial services for refugees and less integration into host community life. We call these the paradox of information overload and the paradox of regulatory systems. We close with discussion of how paradoxes can a conceptual tool for policy makers and researchers to identify root causes of refugee policy incoherence, and how spaces of action can be created to ‘manage the paradox’.

Radio remains the most popular medium of communication in many countries where UN peacekeeping operations are deployed, and several missions have leveraged UN radio stations to communicate with local populations. UN strategic communications via radio can help reduce violence against civilians, both during and after armed conflict. This protective effect of UN radio is evident even in areas where no UN military peacekeepers are deployed.

This issue brief examines the protective impact of UN radio and the mechanisms through which strategic communications by peacekeepers may reduce violence. It identifies four main pathways: building trust in the mission and enhancing cooperation with peacekeepers’ protection activities; filling gaps in reliable information that might otherwise be filled by misinformation that incites violence; fostering pro-peace behavioral change among ordinary civilians; and incentivizing rank-and-file combatants to exercise restraint. The brief also argues that messages are more effective when they are perceived as accurate and informative by local audiences.

As the UN seeks to enhance strategic communications in peacekeeping operations, it must carefully manage several trade-offs. These include trade-offs between empowering civilians vs. exposing them to risk; ensuring that messaging is coherent vs. tailoring it to the local context; sustaining independent media vs. promoting national ownership; and expanding access to data vs. maintaining security and host-state consent.

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The post UN Strategic Communications and the Protection of Civilians: The Role of UN Radio appeared first on International Peace Institute.

UN police (UNPOL) have long contributed to protection of civilians (POC) mandates, yet their role remains underexamined and often undervalued. As UN peace operations shift toward more flexible, lighter-footprint mission models and increasingly emphasizes regional partnerships, preventive approaches, and people-centered security, UNPOL could take on an expanded role. This could include greater involvement of UNPOL in addressing emerging protection threats related to urban violence, transnational crime, and cyber-related risks. However, future POC strategies must balance UNPOL’s strengths with other security tools to align expectations with capacity.

This issue brief examines UNPOL’s contributions to POC, focusing on their recent experience, emerging functions during mission transitions, and potential place in future models for peace operations. It highlights how UNPOL have played a vital role in reducing violence, engaging communities, supporting host-state law enforcement, and sustaining protection efforts during mission drawdowns. However, persistent challenges—including coordination gaps, militarization trends, limited data on effectiveness, and political constraints—continue to restrict their impact.

To make UNPOL’s contributions to POC more effective, the UN needs to focus more on police in high-level policy discussions, improve coordination across the rule-of-law sector, and strengthen data collection to assess the impact of UNPOL efforts. As peace operations adapt to evolving challenges, ensuring that UNPOL are properly resourced and embedded within mission planning will be key to realizing their full potential in protecting civilians.

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As the landscape of global peacekeeping evolves, the UN is increasingly sharing the security burden with regional organizations and ad hoc coalitions. These non-UN missions sometimes deploy alongside UN missions through a wide range of cooperation arrangements termed “partnership peacekeeping.” However, it is unclear how this trend toward partnership peacekeeping will impact the protection of civilians (POC), which is not a central component of most non-UN missions.

This issue brief examines how partnership peacekeeping influences civilian protection by drawing on data from more than seventy intrastate conflicts in Africa from 1993 to 2023. It evaluates how UN and non-UN missions, operating both independently and in parallel, affect violence against civilians. The analysis reveals that both missions led by the UN and by the African Union and European Union (analyzed together) are associated with a reduction in violence against civilians by non-state armed groups, while other non-UN missions do not significantly reduce civilian targeting. However, non-UN missions appear more effective in limiting state violence against civilians, and parallel deployments of UN and non-UN missions do not enhance civilian protection beyond when the UN deploys alone.

These insights challenge the assumption that partner-led peacekeeping can fully substitute for UN-led operations. As the UN rethinks its peacekeeping role in response to shifting global dynamics, it needs to preserve its multidimensional approach to POC while ensuring that partnership models are designed to mitigate, rather than exacerbate, risks to civilians.

The post Protection of Civilians in Partnership Peacekeeping appeared first on International Peace Institute.

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According to the US government, the Russian government is developing a programme to arm some of its satellites with nuclear warheads. Should the Kremlin acquire this capability, it could destroy key parts of the civilian satellite infrastructure by detonat­ing a single nuclear weapon in low Earth orbit. Important US military satellites are also located in space. The use of Russian nuclear weapons there could severely weaken the US military and potentially trigger a military escalation on Earth. The deployment of a nuclear warhead in space would constitute a violation of the Outer Space Treaty. The development of this capability appears to align with Russia’s strategic approach of undermining the established international order and engaging in high-risk actions to extract concessions from the West, particularly in the context of Ukraine. The Kremlin is also attempting to incorporate the increasingly militarised domain of space into this strategy by using non-nuclear anti-satellite weapons. Europe must be prepared to address this ongoing challenge.

On 21 May, an AU-EU ministerial meeting in Brussels will take stock of the cooperation results since the first summit and set out new goals and ambitions for cooperation. In today’s turbulent international environment, it may be tempting to prioritise short-term cooperation and external investment under the Global Gateway strategy. However, this approach risks overlooking the enduring legacies that shape current partnerships. Rather than maintaining an ahistorical lens, there is a pressing need to confront the full historical context of these relationships, including their uncomfortable truths, to build more equitable and informed cooperation.

On 21 May, an AU-EU ministerial meeting in Brussels will take stock of the cooperation results since the first summit and set out new goals and ambitions for cooperation. In today’s turbulent international environment, it may be tempting to prioritise short-term cooperation and external investment under the Global Gateway strategy. However, this approach risks overlooking the enduring legacies that shape current partnerships. Rather than maintaining an ahistorical lens, there is a pressing need to confront the full historical context of these relationships, including their uncomfortable truths, to build more equitable and informed cooperation.

On 21 May, an AU-EU ministerial meeting in Brussels will take stock of the cooperation results since the first summit and set out new goals and ambitions for cooperation. In today’s turbulent international environment, it may be tempting to prioritise short-term cooperation and external investment under the Global Gateway strategy. However, this approach risks overlooking the enduring legacies that shape current partnerships. Rather than maintaining an ahistorical lens, there is a pressing need to confront the full historical context of these relationships, including their uncomfortable truths, to build more equitable and informed cooperation.

South Africa’s transition to a low-carbon economy requires substantial infrastructure investments—modernizing electricity grids, deploying renewables, and enabling new sectors such as green hydrogen. However, infrastructure alone cannot achieve a just transition. Drawing on data from the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP) and stakeholder consultations, the brief highlights a persistent imbalance: while it is expected that infrastructure absorbs a large share of grant funding due to its capital intensity, this has come at the expense of adequate support for social dimensions such as skills development, worker protection, and economic diversification in coal-dependent regions like Mpumalanga. Only 11.21% of tracked grants have been allocated to skills development, and less than 5% of Mpumalanga’s funding needs are met—the U.S. withdrawal from the International Partners Group in 2025 further strains the financing landscape. To mitigate socio-economic disruption and promote inclusive growth, the op-ed recommends scaling TVET programs, strengthening social protection systems, and increasing local participation in renewable energy value chains. Achieving a just transition will require recalibrating financial strategies to ensure that people and communities remain at the core of South Africa’s energy future alongside essential infrastructure.

South Africa’s transition to a low-carbon economy requires substantial infrastructure investments—modernizing electricity grids, deploying renewables, and enabling new sectors such as green hydrogen. However, infrastructure alone cannot achieve a just transition. Drawing on data from the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP) and stakeholder consultations, the brief highlights a persistent imbalance: while it is expected that infrastructure absorbs a large share of grant funding due to its capital intensity, this has come at the expense of adequate support for social dimensions such as skills development, worker protection, and economic diversification in coal-dependent regions like Mpumalanga. Only 11.21% of tracked grants have been allocated to skills development, and less than 5% of Mpumalanga’s funding needs are met—the U.S. withdrawal from the International Partners Group in 2025 further strains the financing landscape. To mitigate socio-economic disruption and promote inclusive growth, the op-ed recommends scaling TVET programs, strengthening social protection systems, and increasing local participation in renewable energy value chains. Achieving a just transition will require recalibrating financial strategies to ensure that people and communities remain at the core of South Africa’s energy future alongside essential infrastructure.

South Africa’s transition to a low-carbon economy requires substantial infrastructure investments—modernizing electricity grids, deploying renewables, and enabling new sectors such as green hydrogen. However, infrastructure alone cannot achieve a just transition. Drawing on data from the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP) and stakeholder consultations, the brief highlights a persistent imbalance: while it is expected that infrastructure absorbs a large share of grant funding due to its capital intensity, this has come at the expense of adequate support for social dimensions such as skills development, worker protection, and economic diversification in coal-dependent regions like Mpumalanga. Only 11.21% of tracked grants have been allocated to skills development, and less than 5% of Mpumalanga’s funding needs are met—the U.S. withdrawal from the International Partners Group in 2025 further strains the financing landscape. To mitigate socio-economic disruption and promote inclusive growth, the op-ed recommends scaling TVET programs, strengthening social protection systems, and increasing local participation in renewable energy value chains. Achieving a just transition will require recalibrating financial strategies to ensure that people and communities remain at the core of South Africa’s energy future alongside essential infrastructure.

Die jüngsten Wahlen in den Vereinigten Staaten und in Deutschland haben Debatten über die Zukunft der internationalen Zusammenarbeit ausgelöst, insbesondere bei polarisierenden Themen wie Migration. Trotz seiner Bedeutung wurde dem Klimawandel jedoch nicht viel Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt. Dabei sind Klimawandel und Migration eng miteinander verknüpft, und politische Maßnahmen, um diese Überschneidung wirksam anzugehen, sind unerlässlich. 

Die jüngsten Wahlen in den Vereinigten Staaten und in Deutschland haben Debatten über die Zukunft der internationalen Zusammenarbeit ausgelöst, insbesondere bei polarisierenden Themen wie Migration. Trotz seiner Bedeutung wurde dem Klimawandel jedoch nicht viel Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt. Dabei sind Klimawandel und Migration eng miteinander verknüpft, und politische Maßnahmen, um diese Überschneidung wirksam anzugehen, sind unerlässlich. 

Die jüngsten Wahlen in den Vereinigten Staaten und in Deutschland haben Debatten über die Zukunft der internationalen Zusammenarbeit ausgelöst, insbesondere bei polarisierenden Themen wie Migration. Trotz seiner Bedeutung wurde dem Klimawandel jedoch nicht viel Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt. Dabei sind Klimawandel und Migration eng miteinander verknüpft, und politische Maßnahmen, um diese Überschneidung wirksam anzugehen, sind unerlässlich. 

Since 2001, the Eastern Mediterranean has been one of the key gateways for refugees, asylum seekers, and migrants seeking to enter Europe from the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. This route encompasses crossings to Greece, Cyprus (and to a lesser extent Bulgaria), primarily via Türkiye, but increasingly also from Lebanon and Libya. Against the backdrop of regional instability, the Eastern Mediterranean route has remained a constant point of attention for European Union (EU) policymakers—especially after 2015, when the Syrian refugee crisis thrust it into the spotlight.

Although the COVID-19 pandemic and global border closures briefly slowed movement, recent years have seen a steady uptick in arrivals, particularly in Greece, with Cyprus also experiencing record numbers of irregular entries compared to previous periods. Both countries face complex, mixed migratory flows, still largely transiting through Türkiye but with a noticeable surge in movements originating from Lebanon and Egypt.

The reports produced under the ‘Mediterranean Migration’ project delve into these evolving migration dynamics and the policy responses in Egypt, Lebanon, Cyprus, and Greece, looking at the period 2021-2024. While these countries occupy different positions in the migratory journey—whether as points of origin, transit, or destination—the research reveals striking similarities in how they navigate and attempt to manage these roles within the broader regional migration landscape.

Country Reports:

Country Report Cyprus

Country Report Egypt

Country Report Lebanon

Country Report Greece

Policy briefs by Country:

Policy brief  Cyprus

Policy brief Egypt

Policy brief Greece

Policy brief Lebanon

Synthesis Report:

Extensive, Synthesis Report

More information can be found here.