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Két évvel azután, hogy elvileg a Nairobiban 2013. decemberében megkötött megállapodásnak megfelelően az egykori kongói lázadó csoport, az M23 egykori harcosainak már rég haza kellett volna térnie a Kongói Demokratikus Köztársaságba (még 2013. novemberében, az M23 veresége után menekültek harcosaik a szomszédos országokba), még mindig sok százan vesztegelnek Ugandában és Ruandában arra várva, hogy a kormány betartsa, amit ígért – a másik oldal viszont azt állítja, hogy minden a megegyezésnek megfelelően zajlik és rövidesen befejeződik a több mint egy tucat pontból álló megegyezés végrehajtása.

Ami ebben a nagy probléma az az, hogy a leszerelésért és reintegrációért felelős szervezet felmérése szerint az Ugandában korábban regisztrált 1600 harcosból közel 1000 már tovatűnt a táborokból, vagy máshol telepedett le, vagy saját erejéből visszatért családjához vagy visszaszivárgott Észak- illetve Dél-Kivuba. A három lépésből álló visszatérési folyamat elvileg már (ismét) elkezdődött december 8-án Ugandában, de jelenleg nagyjából még mindig csak úgy 200-300-ra tehető azon egykori harcosok száma, akik visszatértek a Kongói DK-ban található Kamina városába, ami afféle első reintegrációs állomásként szolgál a papíron önkéntes visszatérők számára. Papíron, hiszen az önkéntesség egy nagyon fontos eleme a visszatelepítésnek, emlékezhetünk tavaly decemberben, amikor erőszakkal próbáltak az ugandai Bihanga táborából egykori M23-harcosokat visszaküldeni a Kongói DK-ba, akkor több ember életét veszítette a kialakult összecsapásokban.

A helyzet amúgy kezd tényleg feszültté válni, ahogy fentebb már volt róla szó, hiszen a december 15.-i határidővel bíró visszatelepítés teljes kudarcnak tűnik most és a felek vádaskodásából egy dolog tűnik csak biztosnak: közel 1000 egykori harcos csak úgy tovatűnt Ugandából, Kinshasa szerint ők újabb lázadásra készülnek a Kivukban, az M23 jelenlegi elnöke, Bertrand Bisimwa szerint viszont ők már hazatértek, miután megunták a várakozást. Ruandában, az M23-at állítólagosan támogató országban még ennél is megbecsülhetetlenebb a helyzet, hiszen az ott papíron regisztrált 600 egykori harcos holléte nem teljesen ismert, az sem biztos, hogy hányan vannak-voltak. Persze annak ellenére, hogy jelenleg is közel 70 működő lázadó csoport van a Kongói DK-ban, a még az év elején megjelenő szervezet, az M23 utódjának tartott Keresztény Mozgalom Kongó Újjáépítéséért (MCRC) létezését és valódi erejét nem sikerült megerősíteni azóta sem, ráadásul ennek elég stabil indokai vannak.

Egyrészt biztos, hogy most már nincs meg a megfelelő ereje egy ilyen mozgalomnak, hiába beszéltünk fentebb eltűnt egykori harcosokról, jelenleg nincs a kongói hadseregben illetve a helyi lakosság soraiban sem támogatottsága egy ilyen, állítólagosan Ruanda által szponzorált újabb háborúnak, másrészt az egykori M23 vezérkar is szétszéledt, akik még vannak és hajlandóak lennének folytatni a háborúskodást, azok pedig nagyon nincsenek jobban egymással. Persze ennyi egykori és jelenlegi harcossal biztosan vannak akciók, amelyeket ex-M23 harcosok követtek el (például egy-egy masisi akciót kötnek nevükhöz), de ezeket inkább csak az elszigetelt bűncselekmények kategóriájába lehetne sorolni, nem egy szervezett lázadó mozgalom akciójának. Úgyhogy ha kicsit zavarosnak tűnt a poszt, az nem félreértés, a helyzet jelenleg elég kaotikus, annyi biztos, hogy sok száz egykori M23-harcosnak kellett volna már újra beintegrálódnia hazájába, de ezzel szemben továbbra is Ruandában illetve Ugandában várakoznak – hogy mire és mik a kilátások, azt nem tudni.

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Cheap solar panels are transforming the energy sector in developing countries worldwide

A landmark collaboration between the UK’s Energy Africa initiative and America’s Power Africa campaign has been launched to bring clean electricity to millions of people across the African continent.

The UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) Minister Nick Hurd announced the new partnership in December in collaboration with his US counterpart, USAID Associate Administrator Eric Postel.

Hurd commented: “No one can tackle Africa’s energy challenge alone… The U.S. has led the way over the past few years with its Power Africa campaign. Together with our Energy Africa campaign we can boost access to reliable, clean and affordable household energy, helping millions of people to lift themselves out of poverty.”

The two organizations’ combined efforts will aim to leverage private investment to develop power sharing networks between African countries and tap their unused resources, such as geothermal power, to increase locals’ access to electricity.

It is estimated that around 600 million Africans still lack electrical power at home, holding back businesses and development.

A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between the two countries at a special event arranged by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and New Climate Economy, at the recent UN climate change conference in Paris.

USAID Associate Administrator Eric Postel said: “In partnership with DFID… We can help accelerate Africa’s path toward economic and environmental sustainability.”

The MoU commits Energy Africa and Power Africa to work together in a number of key policy areas, including expanding off grid energy, boosting investment in clean energy through joint projects, and improving female participation rates in Africa’s energy sector.

The UK’s campaign has historically focused on boosting the household solar market throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with the ultimate goal of creating universal energy access across the region.

Energy Africa claims to have signed up six African countries to cooperate on reducing policy and regulatory barriers to cross-border market expansions in the household solar energy market. This includes regional superpower Nigeria. Discussions with eight more African governments are still ongoing.

Meanwhile America’s Power Africa has sought to create 60 million electrical connections in sub-Saharan states by unlocking local resources of wind, solar, geothermal and natural gas resources. The project also aims to add at least 30,000 megawatts of new, cleaner electrical power capacity to the area.

Together the two organizations believe the new joint initiative will help strengthen donor coordination and stimulate efforts by local governments, foreign donors and private businesses to meet the Global G7 in Africa target of delivering affordable, sustainable clean energy to the continent’s citizens.

It comes as a historic $100 billion package of measures were agreed between Western governments and the leaders of emerging and developing countries to combat climate change and keep global temperatures well below a 2 °C rise.

Green technology is rapidly emerging as a potential challenger to traditional fossil fuels as a cheaper, cleaner means of providing power to developing countries worldwide. With many newly emerging states like China now looking to cut down on pollution in at home, countries which have not yet created a traditional electrical infrastructure may be poised to avoid earlier pitfalls as they seek to join the ranks of economically developed countries.

 

Pendant le déploiement du Groupe aéronaval (GAN) en Méditerranée orientale, deux hélicoptères Puma de l’Escadron d’hélicoptères (EH) 1/67 Pyrénées de l’armée de l’Air étaient à bord du porte-avions Charles de Gaulle.

Brüssel hat die Beitrittsgespräche mit der Türkei wieder aufgenommen. Darauf hatten sich die 28 Mitgliedsstaaten Ende November bei einem…

To lose one finance minister may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness, do why did President Jacob Zuma's drop two finance ministers in less than a week, asks the BBC's Milton Nkosi.

"Auch in Straßburg verhinderten die französischen Wähler einen Sieg der Front National. Doch richtig zufrieden sind damit nur wenige. Denn die…

A külügyminiszter nem tart jogi következményektől amiatt, hogy Magyarország a jelek szerint az EU tagjai közül kimondva egyedüliként nem kívánja külön címkékkel megjelölni a ciszjordániai zsidó telepekről származó árukat. Az EU kül- és biztonságpolitikai főképviselője a BruxInfo kérdésére nem adott egyértelmű választ arra, hogy milyen következményei lennének a végrehajtás elmulasztásának.

Le Groupe CMA CGM, un leader mondial du transport maritime, a le plaisir d’annoncer le lancement du nouveau service Med Gulf Ecuador (MGE), desservant en direct la Méditerranée, la Caraïbe, le Golfe du Mexique, la Colombie et l’Equateur à partir du 19 décembre.

CMA CGM lance un service sur-mesure dédié à l’export des bananes équatoriennes

• Lire la suite de CMA CGM lance le service Med Gulf Ecuador

Avec un Produit Intérieur Brut équivalent à 68% de la moyenne de l’UE en 2014, selon un nouveau rapport d’Eurostat, la Hongrie se classe au 23e rang des 28 États membres de l’Union européenne.

La Bulgarie est en queue de classement avec  un PIB par habitant équivalent à 47% de la moyenne de l’UE en parité  de pouvoir d’achat (ppa). A l’opposé, le Luxembourg a le plus élevé avec 266%.

La Hongrie se trouve au niveau de la Pologne et de la Lettonie, devant la Croatie, la Roumanie et la Bulgarie. Elle est distancée par d’autres pays qui sont comme elle entrés dans l’UE en 2004 : la Slovaquie, l’Estonie et la Lituanie.

Eurostat a mesuré dans le même rapport un supposé « bien-être matériel des ménages », c’est à dire la consommation individuelle. Avec une consommation des ménages égale à 65% de la moyenne de l’UE, la Hongrie se trouve à la 25e place, encore devant la Bulgarie, la Roumanie et la Croatie.

Consulter le rapport complet d’Eurostat.

Le graphique suivant a été réalisé par le site Portfolio.hu.

Um den "Flüchtlingszustrom":http://de.euronews.com/2015/12/14/cdu-parteitag-merkel-verteidigt-willkommenspolitik/ zu steuern, will die EU eine…

ÄNDERUNGSANTRÄGE - Umsetzung und Überarbeitung der EU-Strategie für Zentralasien
Ausschuss für auswärtige Angelegenheiten

Quelle : © Europäische Union, 2015 - EP

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Can trade and energy cooperation promote peace? On December 14, an IPI Vienna meeting discussed the possibilities and limitations of peace and economic connectivity between Europe and Asia; the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU); and across unrecognized boundaries, for example within states where there have been “frozen” or protracted conflicts. The potential role of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in promoting economic connectivity was also discussed. The meeting, “Economic Connectivity,” was part of IPI’s Swiss-funded “Peace Incubator” project.

Pipelines, train tracks, roads, water lines, and power cables connect communities and states and provide the lifeblood for economic development. While their disruption for political reasons, as seen in the recent case of Crimea, can hamper living conditions, such arteries of trade can also help to promote greater understanding and improve well-being which, in turn, can contribute to stability and good-neighborly relations. That said, it was observed that economic connectivity alone is no guarantee of peace: Europe was highly integrated in terms of trade in 1914, but this did not avert a war.

Participants discussed what steps could be taken to reduce politicization of economic relations between the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian halves of the OSCE area, in what is sometimes described as the “integration of integrations” between EU and the EaEU. It was suggested that ways should be found to help states (like Armenia, Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine) to build bridges between the EU and EaEU rather than being forced to make a “false choice” between them. The trilateral talks between the EU, Ukraine and Russia were cited as a positive example, as was relations between Turkey and a number of partners. It was also noted that members of both unions should harmonize their rules and standards in line with commitments of the World Trade Organization. Several participants stressed the importance of a “small step” policy rather than working towards the grand design of a common pan-European economic space.

A lively discussion focused on how economic cooperation could help to de-escalate tensions in and around Ukraine, and rebuild trust and cooperation in Europe. It was noted, for example in the context of trade and energy, that there is a high level of co-dependence between Russia and many EU countries, and therefore incentives for cooperation. At the same time, the crisis is forcing traditional trade partners to diversify their products and markets. Some participants stressed the role that economic cooperation can play as part of wider efforts to enhance stability while others warned that trade cannot operate in a political vacuum or reward bad behavior.

One participant pointed out the importance of rules in the context of trade. In the same way that states need the rule of law for legitimacy at home and predictability abroad, connectivity can only work effectively if investors can operate in an environment that they trust.

There was a detailed discussion on the impact of energy on security (and vice versa), particularly Russian oil and gas. It was noted that Russia has an over-supply of gas, that demand is dropping, and that Russia is pivoting to Asia. The impact of other geo-political changes, for example in Iran, Turkey and the Gulf, and their impact on energy markets were also discussed.

Participants discussed whether or not there is a role for the OSCE in promoting economic connectivity. One participant pointed out that this has been part of the OSCE’s work since the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, and now takes on a renewed significance. It was noted that, moving forward, discussions on this topic within the OSCE should involve the business community. This will be one of Germany’s priorities during its Chairmanship of the OSCE in 2016. It was noted that the recent report by the OSCE Panel of Eminent Persons included recommendations designed to increase the OSCE’s work in the field of economic connectivity. Furthermore, it was recalled that the 2010 OSCE Astana Summit Declaration called for an intensification of energy security dialogue.

Several participants suggested that science diplomacy and energy diplomacy could build bridges at a time when traditional diplomacy faces gridlock, and gave examples of on-going initiatives.

Participants discussed economic connectivity in the context of building confidence among parties to protracted conflicts. It was noted that identifying common economic interests and facilitating or regulating trade – even among parties that do not officially recognize each other – can create mutually beneficial incentives. The cases of China/Taiwan, Serbia/Kosovo, Cyprus as well as Georgia/Abkhazia were cited. This is an area of work where IPI intends to increase its activities, potentially in Moldova.

Lors du congrès de son parti, l’Alliance des jeunes démocrates (FIDESZ), le Premier ministre Viktor Orbán a annoncé sa volonté de briguer un troisième mandat consécutif en 2018 et le quatrième au total.

Le 26e congrès de la Fidesz (la photo est issue de la page facebook de Viktor Orban).

« Nous sommes ici depuis 30 ans et nous devrions être ici pour les 30 prochaines années », s’est réjouit le Premier ministre.

De façon anecdotique, M. Orbán a obtenu sa réélection à la présidence du parti, avec 1174 des 1177 votes exprimés.

Quelques semaines auparavant, un enregistrement dans lequel on l’entendait envisager prendre de la distance avec la vie politique à la fin de ce mandat avait fuité dans la presse. Certains y avaient vu une petite opération de communication…

Ce congrès a aussi été l’occasion pour Viktor Orbán de fustiger à nouveau l’immigration extra-européenne et les valeurs libérales de l’Union européenne. Il a opposé à ces valeurs qualifiées d' »anti-démocratiques » les « vertus militaires, le christianisme et la fierté nationale » comme sources de tolérance et de solidarité.

Les partis d’oppositions, à droite et à gauche, ont globalement adressés les mêmes reproches : le Premier ministre hongrois s’est totalement déconnecté de la réalité.

Greetings CCLKOW and other interested readers. In this, my last post before the end of term and the New Year, I think it fitting to talk about the future. Or rather, the defence approach to imagining and dealing with the future. The inspiration for this piece was a two day workshop on future concepts that I attended, and my response to the structure of the content and the contemplations, specifically the use of scenarios. Because this sort of exercise so frequently relies upon this model to drive the conversation, I am of course of a mind to question it – conventional wisdom tends to have that effect on me. Of course, it may be that scenarios are the best way forward for providing the most effective review of a potential future, but for the time being let us live in an intellectual world where we have the freedom to create the process anew. Read the thought piece, consider the challenge, and join the discussion on Twitter at #CCLKOW.

 

Last month I spent a fun* couple of days with DCDC contemplating the way forward for for the armed forces. In this particular workshop exercise the view was towards imagining the application of landpower in a changing world in support of the centre’s re-issue of the Future Land Operating Concept. This is not my first experience of such exercises, as it is exactly twenty years ago that I participated in my first of these sorts of exercises with NDU. The world of 2015 seemed rather far off at that time. And yet, here we are again, considering the world two decades hence.

Returning to the more recent workshop I participated in, nothing was decided and there are months to go before the review is completed. But the two days included interesting conversations across a range of topics between an even broader range of specialists and experts. It is not my intention to discuss the content of the workshop. Rather, I am interested in the processes applied in the approach to such endeavours, because how we do things can shape the intellectual outcomes. Whereas this particular event was scenario driven, in this piece I would like to challenge the methodological assumption to think about what may be alternative frameworks for thinking through future capabilities, challenges, and opportunities.

As a means to consider other ways to think about the future, my first point is about challenges and opportunities, because it is the former which overwhelmingly dominates the discussion. The nature of security and defence, particularly the exercise of thinking through how to cope with future threats, certainly has a darkening influence on the mood. Pessimism in such cases is understandable. In an effort to be as ruthless as possible with respect to the challenges so as not be caught out, the potential future enemy in such scenarios is inevitably drawn in proportions which reality would not sustain.  Nevertheless, I never fail to be struck by the absence of imagining what opportunities the changing world might offer. Thus, an alternative approach to this process could be organised around discussions which divine the contours of both sides of this coin to imagine both the challenges and the opportunities that will arise out of changes in the economic, social, political, and military worlds.

Another way to address the issue is to play with the threat-context-end relationship. While threats and ends are in common parlance in defence, by context I mean to include the political, social, economic, and perhaps even climatic, dynamics which shape the conflict environment by defining desires, fears, and priorities. Breaking the pieces down into these portions of an equation allows for variation and control of each of the constituent parts. Requirements, options, challenges, and opportunities will emerge from the analysis depending on which piece in the equation is held constant and what is changed in the other parts.

These are just two alternatives which came to my mind. Please feel free to lob any thoughts you might have at my suggestions.  They are illustrative of other means available to think our way to sound preparations for the future, but they are not meant to be exhaustive. There are as likely as many options as there are thinkers on the subject. And that, my dear CCLKOW readers, forms the crux of this week’s questions and discussion:

What are the merits and weaknesses of scenario-based future thinking?

What alternatives to a scenario-based process would you propose?

Cheers!

 

 

 

 

* If this is fun, I really need to get a life.