Diplomacy & Crisis News

Food security for all requires tackling climate change and ending conflicts, His Holiness, Pope Francis, stressed Monday at an official ceremony for World Food Day held at the Rome headquarters of the United Nations agriculture agency.

United Nations human rights experts are urging the Government of France to devise long-term measures to provide access to safe drinking water and sanitation for migrants in Calais and other areas along the northern French coast.

Souvent réduit à des clichés, le punk fut bien plus que l'expression d'un goût juvénile pour la provocation. En refusant d'être le supplément d'âme d'un système porteur de crises sociales, morales et esthétiques, ce mouvement a incité chacun à inventer concrètement ses réponses. / États-Unis, États-Unis (...) / États-Unis, États-Unis (affaires intérieures), Royaume-Uni, Culture, Industrie culturelle, Jeunes, Mouvement de contestation, Musique, Mutation, Presse, Société, Ville - 2015/06

After Kurdistan held a referendum for independence, the US administration has come out against it, stressing that they support a “united, democratic and prosperous Iraq.” The problem with this position is that the present Iraq is anything but united, democratic and prosperous. To the contrary, it is an undemocratic failed state on the verge of collapsing that is increasingly divided along sectarian lines and commits massive human rights abuses on a daily basis. Since the Kurds are opposed to this and sought to separate from Iraq as a result, the central government in Baghdad is presently uniting together with Iran and Turkey against Kurdistan’s citizens. They recently held a joint military exercise along Kurdistan’s border together with Iran and Turkey.

It is critical to note that the present Iraqi government is nothing more than a proxy regime for Iran, and Iran is threatening the Kurds on a daily basis. Iran is opposed to Kurdistan’s independence for it is a direct threat to the Shia Crescent and Iran’s colonial ambitions in the Middle East region. With Iraqi oil, Iran is number one in oil. Without Iraqi oil, OPEC ranks Iran as number 3. This means that if they control Iraq, they will have one third of the world’s energy resources in their hands.

Syrian Kurdish dissident Sherkoh Abbas illustrated that Iranian influence in Iraq creates a number of problems for Western countries: “They can increase the price of oil and harm the European and American economies especially in times of need. Also when economies are trying to get out of recession, they can put them back in recession. It is a threat to the international community. They can promote Iranian terrorism around the world. They can intimidate countries that make deals with them. They can black-mail and throw their weight around.” Abbas warned that if Iran also gets access to the Kurdish areas in Northern Iraq, the situation can potentially return to what it was in the 1970’s, with people waiting miles in line to get gas due to Iranian threats.

The only way to prevent this threat from coming into fruition is to support an independent Kurdistan. The Kurds will have an open oil policy and won’t use their resources to threaten other countries. Under the KRG leadership, the Kurds have nationalized their oil, have instituted a free market economy and have managed to sell it to Turkey. Kurdistan is now the second biggest market for Turkish investment and many Turkish companies are based in Iraqi Kurdistan. Kurdistan’s Prime Minister Nichervan Barzani has also used the oil to build relationships with other countries as well. The Kurds have utilized this resource in order to build the fundamentals of a state. They have not used their resources to threaten others. Due to the clean oil the Kurds provide, many major oil companies prefer to do business in Kurdistan rather than to work in other areas of Iraq. If the Kurds are granted independence, the threats posed by Iran gaining access to much oil can be significantly reduced.

Nevertheless, despite this reality, the US has remained silent in the face of Iranian threats against Kurdistan in addition to opposing Kurdistan’s referendum. For the first time, democratic countries and non-democratic countries are uniting against Kurdistan’s democratic right, which is the referendum. The US has not done anything to help the people who fight ISIS alone. Right now, only the oil and business trade protects them. If the US continues to keep silent, then Iran will win the game. As a result, the Kurds are angry with American policy makers for they seek American protection. An anonymous Kurdish source stressed: “The US has not done anything for us. Russia is better than the US for they changed their policy towards Kurdistan. They respect the decision of the Kurdish people and they asked Turkey not to put sanctions on us. They support an oil pipeline from Kurdistan to Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea. If Turkey decides to block the pipeline, then Russia is working to help us use Syria. If the US does not change policy, the Kurds will become pro-Russia. The US will lose if this happens. Right now, it is not in our interest for we want the US to help us and not Russia.” However, if the Kurds are pushed into a corner, they may have to move away from America.

As Kurdistan’s Prime Minister Nichervan Barzani proclaimed, “Once again, we reiterate our willingness to engage in serious dialogue and we are against resorting to violence in order to address disagreements. All standing issues should be dealt with through negotiations and peaceful means. Our calls for dialogue and negotiations must not be answered with threats, amassing forces and preparations for war.”

The post Oil and business deals protect Kurdistan appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’automne de Politique étrangère (n°3/2017). Marc Hecker, chercheur au Centre des études de sécurité de l’Ifri, directeur des publications de l’Ifri et rédacteur en chef de Politique étrangère, propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Bruno Tertrais, La Revanche de l’Histoire (Odile Jacob, 2017, 144 pages).

Bruno Tertrais, directeur adjoint de la Fondation pour la recherche stratégique, est spécialiste des questions de défense. Il n’est pas historien et ne prétend pas l’être. Son expérience des zones de conflit lui a néanmoins permis de mesurer l’impact de l’histoire dans les soubresauts de la politique internationale. Ainsi La Revanche de l’Histoire ne porte-t-elle pas tant sur l’histoire elle-même que sur l’instrumentalisation politique et stratégique qui peut en être faite. Comme le disait Paul Valéry : « L’histoire justifie ce que l’on veut. »

Qu’est-ce au juste que cette « revanche de l’histoire » ? Thierry de Montbrial, dans un ouvrage au titre similaire paru dans les années 1980, y voyait un « retour du tragique ». Bruno Tertrais explique quant à lui : « La revanche de l’Histoire est, dans une large mesure, un désir de Passé. On en a besoin comme d’un doudou, on cherche une Histoire de confort. » Avant d’ajouter que cette revanche n’est pas antimoderne, et ne saurait être un simple retour en arrière : « Les nationalismes chinois, russe et turc, les droites occidentales, prétendent au contraire nouer une nouvelle alliance entre tradition et modernité. » Cette volonté de concilier des visions du monde ancestrales et les technologies les plus récentes peut produire des tragédies. Que l’histoire soit utilisée comme source d’inspiration – combien y a-t-il eu de « nouveaux Saladins » au Moyen-Orient ? –, ou au contraire comme repoussoir – l’analogie munichoise… –, elle peut conduire à une montée des tensions voire à la guerre.

Tertrais nous propose un « tour du monde des fantômes du passé ». La confrontation entre la Chine et le Japon se nourrit des haines anciennes. La période 1839-1949 est présentée par les autorités chinoises comme le « siècle de l’humiliation ». La thématique de l’humiliation est aussi présente au Moyen-Orient – où Daech ne manque pas de dénoncer les affres du colonialisme – et en Russie, où Vladimir Poutine mobilise tant l’histoire tsariste que l’ère soviétique pour asseoir son pouvoir. Quelques pages sont, bien sûr, consacrées au conflit israélo-­palestinien et aux guerres balkaniques. À propos des Balkans, Churchill disait que certaines régions produisent davantage d’histoire qu’elles ne peuvent en consommer…

La dernière partie de cet essai stimulant est intitulée « Du bon usage du passé ». L’auteur émet quelques recommandations pour éviter que l’histoire ne produise des effets dévastateurs. Tout d’abord, il rappelle les dangers des analogies historiques qui sont souvent utilisées plus comme des slogans mobilisateurs que comme des outils de réflexion. Puis il insiste sur le fait que l’oubli peut avoir ses vertus. Et de citer l’édit de Nantes, qualifié de « loi de l’oubli ». L’amnésie n’a pas vocation à être totale ni définitive mais, à certaines périodes, il paraît impossible de conjuguer mémoire et réconciliation. Enfin, la mémoire est justement évoquée pour souligner le trop-plein de lois mémorielles. « Aujourd’hui, pour nous Européens, le devoir d’Histoire est sans doute plus important que le devoir de mémoire », affirme Bruno Tertrais. Reste à savoir quelle histoire. Comme le montre le débat suscité par la publication de l’Histoire mondiale de la France (Seuil, 2017) sous la direction de Patrick Boucheron, l’histoire – comme la sociologie – reste un sport de combat.

Marc Hecker

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Voicing concern over restrictions on protests as well as attacks on judiciary and civil society in the run-up to presidential elections in Kenya, a group of United Nations independent human rights experts called on the Government to honour its obligations and protect the rights of Kenyans.

In 2014, an unusual book topped bestseller lists around the world: Capital in the Twenty-first Century, an 816-page scholarly tome by the French economist Thomas Piketty that examined the massive increase in the proportion of income and wealth accruing to the world’s richest people. Drawing on an unprecedented amount of historical economic data from 20 countries, Piketty showed that wealth concentration had returned to a peak not seen since the early twentieth century. Today in the United States, the top one percent of households earn around 20 percent of the nation’s income, a dramatic change from the middle of the twentieth century, when income was spread more evenly and the top one percent’s share hovered at around ten percent.

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The United Kingdom’s vote last year to leave the European Union was a seismic event. The British people ignored the advice of the leaders of all their major political parties and of virtually all experts. George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, told voters that leaving would wreck the British economy. U.S. President Barack Obama warned that it would reduce the United Kingdom’s influence on the world stage. Financial markets, many pollsters, and political pundits all anticipated that voters would heed the elites’ advice. And yet they decided not to, setting off a process destined to transform the country’s politics, economy, and society.

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Contraint par les canonnières américaines d'ouvrir son territoire au milieu du XIXe siècle, le Japon se lance dans ses premières conquêtes dès la fin de l'ère Meiji. Plus tard, l'empereur Hirohito envahit la Mandchourie, la Chine, Taïwan, et règne sur une grande partie de l'Asie, jusqu'à la fin de la (...) / Asie, Chine, Japon, Royaume-Uni, Russie, Taïwan, Nucléaire militaire, Colonialisme, Conflit, Histoire, Colonisation, Frontières - Asie

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres today commended the first responders and residents of the Somali capital, Mogadishu, for mobilizing to aid in what is being called Somalia&#39s worst-ever bomb attack.

Women and girls are central to the sustainability of rural households and communities, improving rural livelihoods and overall wellbeing, but their role and significance is often overlooked, the head of the United Nations entity for women&#39s empowerment today said.

L'Unesco doit être défendue et préservée ; c'est pourquoi, de l'intérieur, est dénoncée la politique mise en œuvre ces dix dernières années. L'élection, ce mois-ci, d'un nouveau directeur général revêt une importance cruciale pour l'organisation. / Culture, ONG, Diplomatie - (...) / Culture, ONG, Diplomatie - 2009/09

The United Nations in Somalia strongly condemned today&#39s blasts in the capital, Mogadishu, which reportedly killed or injured dozens of people.

A committee to strengthen cooperation between the United Nations and the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) will discuss its work at the annual IPU forum, which began today in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Japanese comedians on Friday competed to make people laugh by weaving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into their performance at a United Nations-supported special event in Kyoto, the country&#39s cultural centre.

The United Nations Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide has strongly condemned provocation of ethnic and religious hatred armed groups and politicians in the Central African Republic and impressed the need for urgent, concerted and coordinated steps to end violence, defuse intercommunity tensions and alleviate the suffering of the civilian population.

Concluding her visit to Ukraine, the United Nations Deputy Emergency Relief Coordinator underlined on Friday the urgent need for humanitarian funding to address the dire situation faced by millions of civilians during the coming winter months.

Malgré le boom du pétrole et du gaz de schiste, le charbon demeure la principale source d'énergie aux Etats-Unis. Pour en accroître la production, les compagnies minières privilégient désormais l'exploitation à ciel ouvert en arasant les sommets à l'explosif. / États-Unis, États-Unis (affaires (...) / États-Unis, États-Unis (affaires intérieures), Eau, Écologie, Énergie, Entreprise, Industrie, Justice, Santé, Travail, Charbon, Environnement, Pollution - 2015/02

It is easy to brush off North Korea’s behavior as irrational, but the fact that the Kim regime consolidated and has maintained power since 1948 says otherwise. If North Korea was truly an irrational actor, it would not have been able to survive this long. And to have maintained a three generation dictatorship while being viewed very poorly by the majority of the international community is impressive to say the least. The Kim family, specifically Kim Il-sung, has always acted in a way to best meet their grand strategic goals. The two most important being the consolidation of national power in the Kim family and the international recognition of North Korea. In order to meet those goals they had to prevent any internal or external challenge to their leadership.

To face the internal threat, Kim Il-sung created the modern cult of personality and their militaristic culture. North Korea is thought of as an atheist state that does not tolerate religion, but this is not the case. They want the people to worship the Kim family and nothing else. Those who do not give the Kim family the proper respect can expect to receive punishment and will have a poor quality of life, even by North Korean standards. This worshipping of the dear leader allows the Kims to stop any internal challenge to their dictatorship. Their subjects consist of those who are either brainwashed hardliners in favor of the regime or those who pretend to be out of fear. Any potential insurgency or foreign powers attempting to foment resistance is stopped because no citizen would dare challenge the government. We can further see this strategy of consolidating power in Kim Jong-Il’s “military first” policy. According to CNN in 2015 North Korea had 1.1 million active soldiers and an additional 7.7 million in reserves. This could be seen as an act of deterrence. Creating such a militaristic society ensures that anyone who challenges the regime will suffer high costs.

The second part of their grand strategy is the international community’s recognition of their regime. I think it would be hard to argue that they have not achieved this goal. Kim Jong-un’s current regime is probably more repressive of its people and more internationally isolated than Saddam’s Iraq. They even have the weapons the U.S. wrongly accused Iraq of having in 2003. However, the U.S. refrains from intervening in North Korea even though our military is far superior. The obvious reason to this is China and the Soviet Union. The support of these two powers throughout the years has allowed North Korea to survive this long. However, the relationship between these countries has not been all sunshine and butterflies. North Korea knows that it can’t rely on China to protect them forever, which is why their nuclear program is so important to them. They continually engage in acts of violence and make threats so that they are not forgotten and are always taken seriously (at least as a threat).

North Korea is a belligerent nation doing everything in its power to ensure the continuation of the regime. Their economy is in shambles, they suffer from famine, and there are no signs they are undertaking measures to put their country on a productive path. To do so would run counter to everything they want to achieve. All their citizens are theirs to torment if it means the Kim family remains in power. I have heard some argue that the economic sanctions placed on North Korea do nothing but hurt the people and serve as propaganda tools for the Kims. I would take the realist approach and say that there is no way to help the North Korean people without causing suffering on a much larger scale. So I would argue for continued sanctions and more economic isolation of North Korea. At the same time I would encourage constant dialogue with them. Always letting them know that positive engagement with the U.S., South Korea, and Japan means sanction relief, while continued hostile acts leads to tougher sanctions and further detriment to their nation. Maintaining this balance and given time, I believe the Kim family will have no choice but to look for a way to make economic reforms without losing power. This could lead to a lessening of hostilities, but unfortunately I can’t see any future where the Kim’s aren’t in power that didn’t come at a very high cost.

The post North Korea’s Grand Strategy appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’automne de Politique étrangère (n°3/2017). Norbert Gaillard propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Louis Chauvel, La spirale du déclassement. Essai sur la société des illusions (Seuil, 2016, 224 pages).

Louis Chauvel, professeur à l’université du Luxembourg, analyse ici le déclin des classes moyennes dans les sociétés industrialisées.

En début de livre, le sociologue s’attache à montrer que la racine du problème tient essentiellement à la « repatrimonialisation » qui touche les États occidentaux depuis 30 ans. Ce phénomène, dû à la stagnation des salaires, à la hausse du chômage et à l’enrichissement des ménages détenteurs de biens immobiliers, a accru les inégalités puis, au fil des années, rigidifié la reproduction sociale. Cette évolution est évidemment traumatique pour les générations nées à partir de 1960. Cependant, elle correspond aux modalités de développement des États émergents dans lesquels le capitalisme familial se nourrit de la mondialisation pour accroître le patrimoine des élites locales.

Si la « civilisation de classe moyenne » est en train de vaciller, c’est parce que ses piliers se fissurent : doutes croissants sur la méritocratie et l’idée de progrès social, remise en cause du salariat, réduction de la protection sociale, difficulté à devenir propriétaire et démonétisation des diplômes. Louis Chauvel s’attarde sur ces deux derniers points. Particulièrement marqués en France, les déclassements scolaire et résidentiel sont les symptômes les plus criants de la paupérisation et du mal-être des jeunes générations. La frustration qu’elle engendre inquiète l’auteur, surtout dans le cas où elle prendrait des formes politiques extrêmes. Les événements récents lui donnent raison : si le corps électoral avait été composé exclusivement des 18-24 ans, le second tour de la présidentielle de 2017 aurait opposé Marine Le Pen à Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Le « grand déclassement » – à savoir le dépassement de la classe populaire et de la «classe moyenne inférieure » françaises par la classe moyenne des pays émergents – est ensuite étudié. Ce mouvement de fond est appelé à s’amplifier sous l’effet de trois facteurs : la poursuite du creusement des inégalités en France, la réduction continue entre le niveau de vie moyen ­français et émergent et la réapparition de conflits de classes violents.

L’analyse va crescendo et les 30 dernières pages de l’ouvrage sont aussi remarquables qu’émouvantes. Pour Chauvel, la crise que la France et les pays développés traversent actuellement est liée à l’insoutenabilité de leur modèle économique et social et à leur incapacité à se réformer. Il n’hésite pas à invoquer les travaux de Joseph Tainter sur la décadence et l’effondrement des sociétés complexes pour nous alerter sur le sort tragique qui nous guette. Seul un sursaut de notre jeunesse peut assurer le salut d’une civilisation qui a si longtemps cru à la science et au progrès humain. Parallèlement, l’auteur déplore un incroyable déni de réalité de la part des dirigeants politiques et des médias. Mais ses critiques les plus acerbes sont adressées à plusieurs de ses collègues, et à certains pans de la sociologie, qui s’évertuent à déclasser la notion de réalité et à construire une dangereuse illusion sociale.

La Spirale du déclassement est un livre majeur et passionnant. C’est aussi un cri d’alerte.

Norbert Gaillard

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