Diplomacy & Crisis News

In an exclusive interview, Syrian Kurdish leader Sherkoh Abbas explained a novel idea for promoting peace between Israel and the Arab world.

He argued that by establishing an independent Kurdistan, the Arab world will be forced to be more focused on the Iranian threat and Neo-Ottoman ambitions rather than thwarting an independent Kurdistan in order to save Iraq and Syria as independent Arab states and compromising with the Iranians and Turks on the Kurdish issue. This enables them to cooperate more with Israel.

In an exclusive interview, Syrian Kurdish leader Sherkoh Abbas introduced a novel idea for promoting peace between the State of Israel and the Arab world. The center of his idea revolves around the fact that both the Kurdish and Jewish peoples are outcasts in the Middle East, who are despised beyond logical reason. According to his arguments, the Arab countries will always unite with Turkey and Iran in order to thwart Kurdish independence in order to keep the Kurdistan regions of Iraq and Syria within these current Arab states and until recently, also to be against Israel.

In recent times, the Arab countries have warmed up to Israel, as demonstrated by Israel’s close relationship with Sisi’s government and Israeli Communication Minister Ayoob Kara’s meeting in Ecuador not too long ago. However, despite these positive developments, Abbas argued that Israel’s rapprochement with the Arab world rests on shaky grounds for he claimed that even if the Arab countries are wary of Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman ambitions and the Shia Crescent to the point that they are willing to cooperate with Israel, their desire to thwart Kurdish independence allows them to overcome their differences with the Turks and Iranians and to unite with their enemies, a reality which makes rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world more difficult.

“When I was in Syrian Kurdistan, most of the Arabs including the Syrian Opposition and the Syrian regime views Israel as a dagger in the heart of the Arab world from the Persian Gulf to the Atlantic,” Abbas related.

“They view the Kurds as creating another Israel and would be another blow or dagger in the Arab heartland and the Kurds are Zionists in disguise. For the Arab world, the Kurds are 40 million strong and they don’t deserve a state but they want another Arab state.”

“They attack Sykes-Picot for creating artificial borders but then they defend it regarding the Kurds in order to thwart an independent Kurdistan. These borders were used to defend the colonial borders. Turkey wants to be a Khalifa or Sultan but that clashes with the Shia Crescent yet on Kurdistan, they agree and work together. The US and Sunni countries feel they can recruit them against Iran but it is a mistake for they will always make an agreement on the Kurdish issue. Thus, allowing the Kurds to be freed of the Arab nations of Iraq and Syria would pave the way down the road for the Arabs not to have a common interest with the Iranians and Turks to thwart Kurdish independence.”

“For me, it is ridiculous that we got no hope in Turkey or among Syrian Arab Sunnis or the Sunni Arab states. This shows you cannot rely on the Arab states. They will insist on a Palestinian state or getting the Golan back.”

According to Abbas, only the Kurds are Israel’s natural allies: “They can stop the Sunni challenge, Neo-Ottoman ambitions and Iran. They have positive political capital. Now is the time to work with them.”

In recent times, Abbas noted that Iran, Russia, Turkey and Syria started to spread conspiracy theories in order to undermine Kurdish gains once they started to work with the Americans and tried to delink from Assad and Russia: “Russia is painting a picture that the Kurds are colliding with ISIS.”

Abbas compared this to elements of the Syrian Opposition who accused Israel of cooperating with the Al Nusra Front: “They always invent conspiracies. Iran and Assad have some element and units called ISIS on demand that attack the minorities and Kurds in order to force them to cooperate with the regime. Also, they want to portray Sunnis or any rebels as ISIS terrorists to get Iran and Assad out of isolation and to make them more favorable and acceptable or better than the alternative. When Iraq started to take shape towards being divided and the same in Syria, they spread conspiracy theories or accusations. They say America and Israel are trying to divide Syria. This is what Turkey is spreading. Iran and Assad also.

“Now, also Russia portrays a gap between NATO and Turkey. Initially, they tried to see the Kurds as the victims and rightly so. Then, they felt uncomfortable after they witness the Kurds cooperating with the U.S. and so they are trying to derail the process of the Kurds getting gains in Syria and Iraq. The best way to counter this is to support an independent Kurdistan.”

Abbas argued that an independent Kurdistan won’t just block the establishment of a Neo-Ottoman Empire or the Shia Crescent or Iran aiding Hezbollah as well as other terror groups. He claimed that if the establishment of an independent Kurdistan in Syria and Iraq becomes a reality, the Arabs will view it as a loss for the Arab homeland but nevertheless, a fait accompli just like the State of Israel and this will make it easier for Israel to cooperate with the Arab countries.”

“Once an independent Kurdistan in the heartland of the Arab world is a fait accompli, he claimed that the Arabs will once again view Iran and Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman ambitions to be their number one threat, allowing Israel to face no obstacle in their rapprochement with the Arab world for without this being a reality, they can always forget their issues with Turkey and Iran in order to unite to thwart an independent Kurdistan. Without an independent Kurdistan coming into fruition, he stressed that they would have no reason to compromise.”

“Thwarting an independent Kurdistan will always keep them together no matter how many differences they got,” Abbas stressed. “Kurdistan has so much oil and water resources that they will never give up on. The Iranian Shah and Saddam Hussein made an agreement. Saddam essentially gave up territory to the Shah in order for the Kurds to stop being armed and the Kurds lost in the 1970s. He was willing to give up territory just so that they won’t give up their rights over Kurdistan.”

“They felt that giving territory to Iran is good to keep Kurdistan in the North. Turkey and Iran had many disagreements in recent weeks but what brings them to the table is the Kurdish glue. Everything else is minor compared to the Kurdish issue. But by having the Arab Kurds go their own way, then they will have to face the reality. They will only worry about Iran and the Neo-Ottoman Empire that can threaten the Saudi leadership. That will force them to reach out to the Kurds for they are the buffer that can stop those two countries from marching on them.”

He also argued that this in turn will enable the Arab countries to support peace with the State of Israel without any other interests distracting from it: “Furthermore, Kurdistan can be a new beginning in that part of the world besides Israel in promoting democracy and coexistence, a positive influence that can help many Muslims in that part of the world to adopt moderate Islam.”

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The Art of the Deal?: Chinese president Xi Jinping and U.S. president Donald Trump.

Russia isn’t the Trump administration’s only foreign conflict of interest problem. President Donald Trump, his daughter/senior adviser Ivanka Trump, and son in-law/senior adviser Jared Kushner also have a growing China problem.

At a Beijing hotel on May 6, Jared Kushner’s sister Nicole Kushner Meyer appeared before a crowd of wealthy Chinese investors to pitch an investment scheme for a Kushner Companies luxury apartment complex in Jersey City, New Jersey known as “One Journal Square” that would help Chinese investors secure U.S. visas and green cards. Meyer repeated her pitch to investors in Shanghai on May 7, and planned to do so in other Chinese cities. Meyer highlighted her ties to the Trump administration through her brother Jared, raising concerns over conflicts of interest and drawing harsh criticism back home in the United States (Video: Bloomberg, CBS, CNN, MSNBC, Reuters).

Negative media attention to the Kushners’ activities in China led to a half-apology from the Kushners and cancellation of further Kushner appearances in China, but doesn’t seem to have dampened Chinese enthusiasm for the Kushner “visa-for-sale” scheme. This is not the only time that conflict of interest questions have been raised regarding Trump-Kushner business ties with China.

A brochure for Jared Kushner’s sister Nicole’s event in Beijing read: “Invest $500,000 and immigrate to the United States.” The visa scheme in question is the controversial EB-5 visa or “golden visa” program for wealthy investors (which has been called “the ‘crack cocaine‘ of real estate financing”), from which the extended Trump-Kushner real estate family has previously raised Chinese money, and which President Trump extended “without long-promised changes” the day before Nicole Kushner Meyer appeared in Beijing.

Nicole Kushner Meyer, in black, speaks at EB-5 investment pitch in Beijing, May 6 (ABBAO).

The Kushners’ partner in China is Beijing-based Qiaowai [Overseas] Group (侨外移民 or 侨外集团, QWOS). Other U.S. partners for the project include New Jersey private equity firm KABR Group and Florida-based EB-5 “shady broker” the U.S. Immigration Fund (USIF). Qiaowai CEO Ms. Ding Ying (丁颖, aka Vivian Ding) attended President Trump’s inauguration in January 2017 and reportedly met Trump and members of the Trump-Kushner family. Ding has touted her attendance at the inauguration for marketing purposes in Chinese media and and at Kushner events in China.

As veteran China reporter Bill Bishop observes, it appears that Ding “knows how to work American politicians” and how “to navigate the swamp to hawk EB-5s”: In April 2016 according to Chinese media, former New York mayor and Trump surrogate Rudy Giuliani appeared with Ding and USIF chairman Nicholas Mastroianni II in Beijing to promote a Times Square EB-5 investment scheme. Giuliani appeared again with Ding and Mastroianni at a high-priced November 2016 EB-5 “forum and showcase” in Shanghai. Incidentally, Mastroianni also contributed $100,000 to Trump’s inauguration fund (See also New York Times).

Qiaowai CEO Ding Ying at Trump inauguration (ABBAO),

Rudy Giuliani and Ding Ying promote EB-5 scheme in China (QQ).

The Kushners were apparently not prepared to deal with U.S. media attention to their activities in China. Journalists from The New York Times and The Washington Post were forcibly removed from the event in Beijing, and reporters were barred from the event in Shanghai. Reporters in Beijing were told, “This is not the story we want.” Nicole Kushner Meyer hung up on a reporter from The Wall Street Journal when contacted by telephone in Shanghai.

Washington Post researcher Congcong Zhang wrote on Twitter that she was threatened for covering the Beijing event. “I was threatened, harassed and forced to delete recordings and photos of the Kushner family recruiting Chinese investors in U.S. Green cards,” said Zhang, adding that “People from the Chinese company that works with the Kushners on the investment visa surrounded me and grabbed my shoulder…. They tried to force me to leave, then grabbed my phone. I could only get it back if I agreed to delete all recordings and videos.”

Kushner investment pitch in Beijing, May 6 (Javier Hernandez via Twitter).

The Kushners’ activities in China have drawn harsh criticism from across the U.S. political spectrum. To many observers it appears that the extended Trump-Kushner family is treating the U.S. presidency as a business platform. Nor would this be the first time the Trump-Kushners have been accused of running the White House “like a family business.”

“It’s highly problematic,” Noah Bookbinder, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, told National Public Radio. “It appears that Jared Kushner’s family business is using his name and his official position to bring in investment.” Bookbinder and former Obama administration ethics adviser Norman Eisen wrote in The Washington Post that “this sales pitch is clearly unacceptable” and that “Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump should recuse themselves from China policy.”

Former George W. Bush administration ethics adviser Richard Painter called the Kushners’ actions in China “corruption, pure and simple,” an “abuse of power,” and “very, very close to solicitation of a bribe.” Painter also wrote on Twitter that incoming French president Emmanuel Macron “should ask that the Statue of Liberty be returned to France and replaced with a giant statue of Jared Kushner with his hand out.”

Kushner Companies has since half-apologized for name-dropping its White House connections to promote its investment scheme. “Ms. Meyer wanted to make clear that her brother had stepped away from the company in January and has nothing to do with this project,” said a Kushner Companies spokesperson, “Kushner Companies apologizes if that mention of her brother was in any way interpreted as an attempt to lure investors. That was not Ms. Meyer’s intention.”

Following extensive and embarrassing media coverage of its activities in China, Kushner Companies backed out of planned further appearances in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Wuhan. According to Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post, however, rich Chinese investors are more eager than ever to invest in the Kushners’ EB-5 scheme, and showed up in droves to the event in Shenzhen despite the Kushners’ absence. As Reuters reports, Qiaowai’s promotional materials have continued to tout its Trump-Kushner connections and to “guarantee” green cards for investors in violation of U.S. EB-5 rules.

Now U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is calling for an investigation into “potentially fraudulent statements and misrepresentations” by Kushner partners Qiaowai and USIF. In a May 25 letter to the Department of Homeland Security and the Securities and Exchange Commission, Grassley wrote that “a closer look” at Qiaowai and USIF is “clearly warranted, as reports suggest both companies have long employed questionable practices.” Additionally on June 1, Democratic members of the Senate and House Judiciary Committees sent a letter to Kushner Companies requesting information on how it has used the EB-5 program and expressing concerns that Kushner Companies and its partners “may be seeking to benefit from the Kushner family’s connections to the White House.”

On June 5 it was further revealed that Kushner Companies is seeking a $250 million loan to pay off investors, including Chinese EB-5 investors, in a luxury Jersey City apartment tower known as “Trump Bay Street.” Major U.S. banks are hesitant to lend on the project due to its connection with Jared Kushner, the Trump administration, and the controversial EB-5 program, so unregulated lenders and foreign banks are likely to fill the void, potentially adding to the vast Trump-Kushner array of foreign conflict of interest problems.

As noted above, conflict of interest questions have previously been raised regarding Trump-Kushner business dealings with China. Trump Tower’s biggest commercial tenant is Chinese state-owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), which is due to renegotiate its lease during Trump’s term as president. Since his inauguration, Trump has won Chinese government approval for 38 new Trump trademarks in China; and Ivanka Trump’s clothing company won approval for three new trademarks in China on the day she and her family dined with Chinese president Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s private Florida resort, in April.

All in the Family?: Trump-Kushner and Xi Jinping families at Mar-a-Lago (large).

Ivanka Trump has also come under fire for reported sweatshop conditions at factories in China where her company’s products are made. The recent arrest and disappearances of investigators looking into conditions at these factories in China prompted The Washington Post to ask, “Is China offering Ivanka Trump unseemly favors?”

If so, then it seems reasonable to ask what China might expect in return. Since former China-hawk Donald Trump’s inauguration as president, China has already secured Trump’s obeisance to Beijing’s “one-China policy” on Taiwan, Trump’s inaction on Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea, Trump’s silence on human rights, and Trump’s dictator-love for Xi Jinping. What more could China want?

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Trying to militarize the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC – center left), Arab League (LAS – top left) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC – bottom left) through the IMAF poses a threat to the European Union

President Trump took the floor at the Arab Islamic American summit on May 21st. But it was also a summit of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT). With his official American support to this organization, Trump jeopardized the security of the European Union. Leaders and citizens of the EU should be alert to this risk.

Who are the IMAFT members?

The Arab Islamic American summit can be also labeled an ˮOIC Minus 2“ summit. Of all 57 members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) assembling all Muslim countries of the world and countries with significant minorities, 55 were present—all except Iran and Syria.

The IMAFT Alliance was founded in December 2015 under the leadership of Saudi Arabia and is currently of 41 member states. Out of the 57 OIC members, 40 are members of IMAFT, in addition to Eritrea.

Membership of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)

The core of IMAFT is made by 19 members of the Arab League (LAS) from Mauritania to Oman and from Lebanon to Comoros: Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Djibouti, Comoros, Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Palestine and Lebanon. All LAS members except Iraq, Syria and Algeria (though, leaders of Iraq and Algeria were present at the Riyadh summit).

It is good to note that three LAS members, Somalia, Djibouti and Comoros are ethnically non-Arab countries but they are “politically” Arab. For this reason they will be considered Arab for simplicity’s sake.

Membership of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) and the League of Arab States (LAS)

There are also 6 Asian members of IMAFT: Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Maldives and Malaysia. In addition to that, there are 16 Sub-Saharan African members: Senegal, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Burkina Faso, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Eritrea, Uganda and Gabon.

Four countries with a Shi’a government—Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Syria—are non-members of this Sunni alliance. However, Azerbaijan, together with Indonesia and Tajikistan, have been invited to become IMAFT members.

But why Trump’s participation at the summit could jeopardize the security of the European Union?

The military alliance as a security threat to the EU

Muslim states, especially  Arab states, possess a vast military arsenal. Saudi Arabia, with its population of 30 million, has the world’s fourth largest military spending right after the U.S., China and Russia. The Kingdom spends a third more than France or the UK, with a population of over 60 million, and two and a half times more than Brazil, a country of 200 million.

The United Arab Emirates, with a population of 6 million, are the 14th largest spender globally—their military spending is similar to Italy’s and slightly exceeds Turkey’s.

According to the World Bank, the 22 Arab League members had an overall military budget of USD 214 billion in 2015 corresponding to 8.2% of their combined GDP. For comparison, the military expenditure of the 27 EU members (except the UK) total USD 203 billion, which accounts for 1.4% of their GDP. After subtracting the three Arab non-members of IMAFT and adding the 22 non-Arab IMAFT members, the total military expenditure of the 41 member IMAFT was USD 222 billion in 2015, according to the World Bank and the EU Institute for Security Studies.

One should not forget that the statistics do not include all military expenditures. In Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey, the army is a major industrial and trade owner. Furthermore, the Egyptian military budget is boosted by not negligible direct U.S. subsidies.

The Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) as compared with the European Union (EU)

The US President is helping build a military colossus on Europe’s southern border, whose military spending exceeds the military budget of the EU members. This alliance would include almost all southern neighbors of the EU, from Morocco to Turkey, including Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Palestine and Lebanon.

Realizing that the European Union is unable to defend itself against the expansionist policy of Russia with just one third of the EU military budget (USD 64 billion), the EU citizens do have serious reasons to be alarmed.

One must realize that many of the IMAFT members have combat-regular guerilla or regular forces. In the last two decades, they actively participated in the civil wars in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan, Chad, Cote d’Ivoire or Sierra Leone, in military occupation of Western Sahara, war against Ethiopia, military campaign against Saddam in Iraq, the Houthi in Yemen, the Arab Spring in Egypt and Bahrain, Boko Haram in Nigeria or against the ISIS in Syria, Iraq, and Libya.

To make it even worse, countries like Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Oman or Kuwait buy exclusively the latest military technology —their military own more state-of-the-art weaponry than the EU members.

Officially, IMAFT is being built as an alliance to counter terror. However, some analyst title it a NATO-like alliance which evokes its potential durability. An organization that started its life with a military intervention in Yemen (instead of fight against terrorism), can easily turn to expansionist policies in the long run.

Let us consider the large Muslim minorities in the EU states, primarily in France (8%), the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany (6%), Austria and Sweden (5%), Denmark and Italy (4%), with a tendency for rapid growth due to high birth rates and immigration. The late Libyan dictator Qaddafi had threatened the Europeans that the Muslim minority in Europe would have been his future secret weapon against the “native” Europeans thanks to its birth rate.

Earlier this year, Europeans got evidence of the manipulation of minorities for political gains. During the Turkish referendum campaign, Turkey’s President Erdogan interfered unprecedentedly with the internal affairs of the EU states, gaining the vote of  the Turkish minority in Germany, helping him introduce a more illiberal regime at home. The late theoretician of nationalism Ernest Gellner had postulated that some diaspora communities tend to be more radicalized than the population in their countries of origin.

In connection with the migration crisis, IMAFT is becoming the second biggest threat to the Europeans, right after Russian assertiveness on their eastern border.

The military alliance as an economic challenge to the EU

Out of the total 13 members of the oil cartel OPEC which can influence global oil prices, 7 countries are also members of the IMAFT military alliance: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria and Gabon. These members exploit 20 of OPEC’s 33.5 million barrels daily, i.e. 59% of the OPEC production.

580 out of 1210 billion barrels of proven reserves is located in these 7 countries, making it 48% of the total OPEC reserves. Adding Iraq, IMAFT’s ally, the daily production of the alliance makes 71% of the OPEC production and its proven reserves correspond to 60% of the OPEC reserves.

Membership of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

Russia and other OPEC countries are the two most important oil suppliers to the EU. A formal American support to IMAFT led by Saudi Arabia de-facto transforms OPEC to a military alliance. Europeans have an extensive experience with Russia using the oil and gas pipeline taps as its weapon. By militarization of OPEC, the European Union is getting two military rivals of its two most important suppliers.

Summary

The Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT), with an official American support, is becoming a second military bloc on the borders of the European Union. After Russian expansionism on its eastern border, IMAFT is a security and economic challenger to the EU on its southern border.

With Trump’s foreign policy so distinctly ignoring the security interests of Europe, the citizens and the leaders of the European Union should do everything to build own military capacities of the EU, such as anEuropean army directed by a European foreign policy, and an EU membership in NATO.

Double threat on the borders of the European Union: Russia and IMAFT

Links:

List of all 41 members of IMAFT: http://www.arabianow.org/saudi-arabia-leads-islamic-military-alliance/

Participants of the Arab Islamic American Summit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riyadh_Summit_2017

IMAFT and EU members military expenditures, according to the World Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS

Arab League members military expenditures, according to the EU Institute for Security Studies (EU ISS): http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Alert_27_Arab_military_spending.pdf

The share of the 15 states with the highest military expenditures, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI): http://america.aljazeera.com/content/ajam/articles/2015/4/13/military-spending-spikes-in-middle-east-east-europe/jcr:content/mainpar/textimage/image.adapt.990.high.SIPRI_global_share_military_expenditure_041315.1429016026374.jpg

 

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(Own report) - With its continued worldwide support for Salafis, Germany's close partner, Saudi Arabia, is relentlessly fertilizing the soil for the growth of jihadi terror, according to the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). "The consequences of Saudi Arabia's support for Salafism are catastrophic," the SWP concludes in light of IS/Daesh activities in Europe. British experts are also sharply criticizing cooperation with Riyadh. If one seriously wants to combat jihadi terror, one "should start by stopping the mass export of Wahhabism's intolerance and hatred from Saudi Arabia," an insider recommends. This is, however, countered by Germany, other European powers and North America's relentless cooperation with the Saudi ruling clan. Just a few weeks ago, Chancellor Angela Merkel launched regular military cooperation with the Saudi armed forces. Out of consideration for Riyadh, the British government has been withholding an investigation, showing the - presumably Saudi - financiers of British jihadis. This had been made known only three days before the latest terror attack in London.

Trump’s decision to withdraw the nation from the Paris climate agreement was not based on science or sound economics, but on a confused, misguided, and simply dishonest desire to score some short-term political points with his voters. What he sacrifices in the long term will be immensely more difficult for the country to win back at the ballot box: authority, credibility, and influence.

Women protest against local government corruption, arrest of opposition leader in Al-Hoceima, Morocco on June 3, 2017. (Photo: REUTERS/Youssef Boudlal)

The kingdom of Morocco is not known for political activism or protests. Certainly not when compared to the Arab Spring uprisings that led to regime change in several of its North African neighbors. Yet in the last 2 weeks the traditionally stable Morocco has seen the largest popular protests and government backlash since the 2011 Arab Spring.

At the time of Arab Spring, Morocco’s king ceded some power to the elected government after some protests cropped up demanding an expansion of democracy. However the move has been largely symbolic without any meaningful change—the king retained a large amount of power and influence. King Mohammed VI, in power since 1999, is part of the Muslim world longest-ruling royal family. In addition, since 2011 Moroccan police have cracked down on protests to limit unrest and prevent similar revolutions to those in Egypt and Tunisia.

Tensions between police and activists in the northern city of Al-Hoceima have resurfaced, and spread, in the last several weeks. An opposition group called Hirak had been gathering support in criticizing the Makhzen—the king’s governing authority in the region—since a local fisherman was killed after a dispute with police. On May 26th, after a preacher criticized Hirak leader Nasser Zefzafi, protesters gathered in the streets and clashed with police. Police also issued a warrant for Zefzafi’s arrest, amidst signs from local residents posing the question to them, “Are you a government or a gang?”

Violence ensued as police used force to break up protests. The next day, May 27, authorities arrested 20 people in Al-Hoceima, charging them with “threatening national security.” Zefzafi, a well-known activist aided by large group of supporters, fled the city before he could be arrested.

However Zefzafi was tracked down and detained a few days later. On June 2nd, protests erupted again in Al-Hoceima. This time “several thousand people” gathered in the city’s main square, chanting “we are all Zefzafi” and “the people demand prisoners be freed.” Police quickly surrounded the group in an attempt to limit the number of people with access to the gathering. In the nearby town of Imzouren police fired water cannon to disperse hundreds of protesters who clashed with security forces.

On June 4th, police acted to disperse a women’s protest organized by Hirak. In addition to showing outrage over Zefzafi’s arrest, the group demanded action to address Makhzen (local government) abuse and corruption as well as the need for more jobs and improvements to regional infrastructure. Once again police surrounded the protesters, and pushed the leader of the event away from her supporters. “We go to sleep in fear, and we wake up in fear,” said Fatima Alghloubzari, 54 who tried to join the protest on Saturday. “We never imagined our city would become like this.”

Several articles on these events pointed out how rare political unrest is in Morocco (and how police presence at protests is usually significant). Perhaps this explains why, as Patrick Markey of Reuters points out, “the unrest around Al-Hoceima and the Rif region is testing nerves in a kingdom that presents itself as a model for stability and steady reform, as well as a safe haven for foreign investment in a region widely torn by militant violence.” Even limited protest can be dangerous in a country used to very little.

It certainly makes sense why the regional government (and, by extension, the monarchy) would want to quash the Al-Hoceima protests as quickly as possible. The Arab Spring showed how quickly such shows of displeasure can spread. But cracking down could produce the opposite of the intended effect by drawing even more to the people’s cause. Zefzafi’s arrest likely generated more attention to his cause than a peaceful protest would.

It’s still too early to see where this recent unrest will lead, but in a country relied on to be a stabilizing regional force, the Hirak movement is worth paying attention to.

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(Photo Credit: Mirza Ismail)

Yezidi leader Mirza Ismail describes how the situation is extremely dire for women and children on Mount Sinjar while the international community and global media outlets ignore it.

In recent days, media outlets across the world have been speaking about the ISIS massive car bomb near the German Embassy in Kabul, the ISIS car bomb outside an ice-cream shop in Baghdad, a priest who was kidnapped by ISIS in the Philippines and how Iraqi forces are confronting the ISIS-held neighborhoods in Western Mosul. However, there has been virtual silence regarding the present situation on Mount Sinjar.

According to Yazidi leader Mirza Ismail, the situation on Mount Sinjar has not improved since 2014. In fact, he claimed that the situation has even deteriorated. Nevertheless, he proclaimed: “The international media has not been covering the present situation on Mount Sinjar I think because the Yezidi fighting forces and the Shiite Popular Mobilization Force made the decision to start fighting against ISIS terrorism and to liberate the Yezidi region of Sinjar as well as the rest of Iraq from ISIS.” He claimed that if other groups were doing the fighting, they would have covered it.

New mass grave found on Mount Sinjar (Photo Credit: Mirza Ismail)

“For the last 7 days, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces and the Yezidi fighters have taken control of all the Yezidi villages on the southern side of Mount Sinjar,” he related. “The Iraqi government has provided many Yezidi fighters with different types of weapons to defend the Yezidi region of Mount Sinjar. The Joint Forces have discovered several new Yezidi mass graves nearby every village on the southern side of the mountain. According to my colleagues, the numbers of mass-graves found in Yezidis’ villages south of Mount Sinjar are 10 so far.”

According to Ismail, the situation for Yezidi civilians on Mount Sinjar is still very dire:

“They lack everything that is needed for daily life, such as food, clean drinking water, doctors, healthcare, hospitals and education for the children. There is a lack of schools and teachers. There are a few tent schools for some children but not enough for all children there. In the villages north of the mountain, the children have difficulty getting to school because of the lack of transportation, as the government has not provided it. The children lack school supplies, good food, clean drinking water, winter clothing, health care, etc. Our organization and many others are trying to help the children the best that we can but the needs are larger than the capacity of NGOs. The conditions in the shelters are very bad as the civilians still cannot go back to their villages because many of the houses were destroyed by ISIS and booby-trapped, a reality that has killed many young Yezidis.”

Yezidi female fighter (Photo Credit: Mirza Ismail)

Ismail stressed that the plight of the Yezidi women is especially difficult for while most of Iraq has been liberated, most of the Yezidi women are still enslaved by ISIS:

“The Yezidis on Mount Sinjar believe most of their women and children were transferred outside of Iraq when ISIS saw they would be defeated. On the other hand, many Yezidi women have picked up arms and defended the region but they lack the proper training and weapons, which the Yezidis have been asking for a long time. Unfortunately, nobody has bothered to help yet. Sadly, the international community finds it very hard to give some arms to an ancient and indigenous Yezidi nation seeking self-defense and they find it much easier to sell high-tech weapons to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Islamic countries, who use them to kill innocents such as the Yezidis.”

Despite all of these recent developments, the United States, Israel, Canada and the international community at large has not responded to what is happening on Mount Sinjar. Ismail claims that this is for political reasons. Nevertheless, Ismail argues that even if it is not politically correct to say so, he believes that “the only solution for the Yezidis and Chaldo-Assyrian Christians to survive as a people with human dignity is to have an autonomous region in Sinjar and Nineveh under international protection” and he hopes that the international community will recognize this sooner rather than later.

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The medium-range RSD-10 Pioneer (SS-20) missile system (RIA Novosti / Anton Denisov) / RIA Novosti

The United States recently test fired an Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) system that intercepted and destroyed its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) target successfully.

The capability to destroy ICBMs had been the last major technological challenge since the Cold War. While this system seems successful at this stage, intercepting multiple ICBMs or one with multiple warheads still looks out of reach. Moscow has been surrounded by a ring of ABMs for some time; their effectiveness has never had to be tested since their deployment.

The strategy that prevented the exchange of ICBMs between the United States and the Soviet Union for decades was a slow progression of communications, dialogue and treaties that reduced the stockpile of nuclear arms. This dialogue also enabled the United States and the Soviet Union to humanize each other and tamp down on propaganda intended to solidify and embolden each side to fight to the last person.

This did not mean that a country’s resolve was reduced. Dialogue was taken from a position of strength, but also used the confidence each country’s population had in their resolve to come to a meeting of minds. With confidence came respect, and the Cold War fizzled away within the next generation.

As an ABM system can physically show the willingness of a country to defend itself, the perception of strength must also be present in order for a dialogue to be successful. The perception that a country can be disabled, obstructed or even controlled by a foreign power makes it seem that any actions in relation to their adversary will result in harm or oppression.

When it becomes possible to see adversaries as less human, it creates an environment of reactionary strategy, something the cold warriors were keen to measure, control and completely avoid. The perception of self-weakness and the feral reaction to achieve security can be more dangerous than many of the weapons systems themselves.

The reality is that the United States is able to defend the country from military and cyber threats, and has the capability to retaliate in if it is targeted, and most likely has in many cases.

The United States is not weak in this regard, and news coverage of anything to do with Russia seems to lack the perception of humanity in relating to a relatively strong adversary. The worst case scenario of a lack of introspective reporting on issue surrounding Russia could lead to a hot conflict, or a bias against Russians and Russian speaking people living in Western countries.

While it most likely will not lead to an exchange of ICBMs, the value of having an open dialogue even with an adversary has proven to be of value, and limiting the ability to re-establish a method of deterrence through communication is ignoring past successes for the sake of little gain.

Humanizing an adversary, even those who seek to cause harm is of more value than the best ABM system. A fictional show like The Americans may be more useful than many news reports in understanding how to approach adversaries in different ways, not for the sake of information, but in opening a communication channel and avoiding the kind of mistakes that could have have turned  the Cold War hot. Misunderstandings and actions that promote a feral response to defense are extremely dangerous with any adversary.

The post Actual and Perceived Defense of the Homeland appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Denouncing today&#39s deadly attack on a peaceful funeral procession in Kabul as &#8220morally reprehensible and bereft of humanity,&#8221 the top United Nations official in Afghanistan said that after a week of violence across the long-troubled country, &#8220now is the time to seek unity and solidarity.&#8221

In a single round of voting today, the United Nations General Assembly elected Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Kuwait, Peru and Poland as non-permanent members of the Security Council for the next two years.

Protecting the oceans is among the objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the blueprint for a more just and equitable world adopted by the 193 Member States of the United Nations in September 2015.

United Nations agencies are calling for urgent aid to help hundreds of thousands of people affected by Cyclone Mora, which swept across the Bay of Bengal earlier this week.

Warning that smugglers may now be “broadening” a death trap for migrants and refugees that could stretch from the Mediterranean to the vast Sahara Desert, the United Nations refugee agency has reiterated its call for safe pathways so that those in desperate need of international protection do not lose their lives.

L'auteur tente de faire le point détaillé de l'évolution du droit particulier aux institutions internationales, depuis la multiplication de ces organismes à travers le monde.

Ceux-ci, on le sait, ont des objectifs fort variés, mais de par leur nature ils sont tous amenés à conclure des actes juridiques de caractère semblable et dans des conditions souvent identiques, qu'il s'agisse de leurs tractations avec les services publics des pays d'accueil ou de la défense de leur intérêts propres. Ainsi se greffe peu à peu une nouvelle branche du droit aux confins du droit international public et privé et du droit administratif.

Stevens & Sons Ltd, Londres, 1962 (en anglais).

Du plan Marshall au Marché commun et aux projets d'union politique européenne, la coopération s'est organisée en Occident selon des modalités variant avec les objectifs, mais on remarque que ce fut toujours dans le sens d'une intégration plus poussée entre les pays membres des institutions régionales.

Après avoir analysé la structure et le rôle des organisations purement européennes, et de l'O.T.A.N., Mme M. Margaret Ball se pose la question : « Communauté européenne ou atlantique, ou bien les deux ? » A son avis, aucune raison ne s'oppose à ce que les deux mouvements d'unification se développent parallèlement. Mais qu'on ne se hâte point de leur donner une structure définitive : tant que l'évolution de chacun se poursuit en fonction d'idéaux communs à l'Occident, la conjonction des efforts à l'échelon suprême demeure possible. Formulée il y a trois ans, cette opinion pourra sembler aujourd'hui quelque peu optimiste.

Stevens & Sons, Londres, 1959 (en anglais).

Paru au début de cette année en France, l'ouvrage de M. W. W. Rostow a été publié aux Etats-Unis quelques mois avant la nomination de l'auteur à la Maison Blanche, où il assume depuis un an et demi les fonctions de conseiller du président Kennedy.

Même pour ceux qui auraient ignoré jusqu'à présent ce bréviaire de l'administration démocrate américaine, les conceptions du professeur Rostow ne sont pas inconnues : pour avoir fortement influencé la politique étrangère des Etats-Unis depuis quelques mois, et pour avoir été si souvent prônés dans les déclarations ou discours officiels, les principes qui inspirent sa théorie de développement économique sont connus du monde entier. La publication du livre en français permettra néanmoins de replacer ces grandes idées dans leur contexte et de mieux comprendre l'articulation d'une doctrine dont l'ambition n'est rien de moins que de supplanter le marxisme dans la conception de l'histoire moderne.

Editions du Seuil, Paris, 1962.

Il peut paraître surprenant que le héros italien le plus populaire en France y ait suscité si peu d'historiens. Par compensation peut-être à l'abondance de l'imagerie qui a du reste fortement contribué à obscurcir l'histoire dans les rayons de la légende. Non point que celle-ci contredise celle-là, mais une geste n'est pas une explication. C'est donc dans une perspective rigoureusement historique que s'est placé M. Emile Tersen pour nous donner la première biographie sérieuse de Garibaldi (1).

Sérieuse en ce qu'elle ne cherche pas à ranimer, dans le mouvement, la couleur, la passion, le pittoresque, « l'aventure » publique et les aventures privées du héros, mais à saisir, éclairer l'homme dans ses profondeurs, et J'action dans ses mobiles, ses nécessités, sa nature véritables.

Ce qui n'implique ni sécheresse ni impassibilité, tout au contraire : le moyen, d'ailleurs, quand le biographe ne cache pas une amitié chaleureuse pour son modèle et que celui-ci est le dernier des révolutionnaires romantiques ? Et comment échapper au romanesque de la période américaine, peu connue, où pourtant l'épopée future trouve son élan et sa couleur (jusqu'à la fameuse chemise rouge et au poncho blanc) et l'avenir quelques-unes de ses clés ?

Engagé à vingt-cinq ans dans un de ces complots ourdis à la légère par Mazzini – qui est alors et tout naturellement son maître, – Garibaldi échappe de justesse, prend le large – à la lettre – et le voilà corsaire, au service des mouvements révolutionnaires sud-américains. Attention : « service », chez lui, doit toujours être pris au sens noble. Il ne faut jamais oublier que Garibaldi restera toujours pauvre. Quand, au soir de son dernier combat pour l'Italie, il se retirera dans son île, il n'emportera avec lui qu'un sac de semences. Dans sa jeunesse américaine, il vit surtout de fruits, d'eau fraîche et, bien entendu, d'amours. C'est là qu'au bord de la lagune il rencontre son Anita et lui dit : « Tu seras à moi. » Elle le fut, en effet, totalement, pendant dix années de luttes et d'espérance, dans l'Italie retrouvée et qui par Garibaldi se retrouve, – jusqu'à ce jour torride où elle meurt d'épuisement, à ses côtés, portant son quatrième enfant, dans la retraite harassante qui suit la perte de Rome. Presque seul survivant de sa troupe décimée ou dispersée, Garibaldi enterre sa femme dans un champ. Voilà l'épopée romantique toute pure : Byron ou Delacroix.

Pour M. Tersen, ce ne sont là tout de même que des événements « personnels ». Et ce qu'il s'efforce à saisir et décrire en Garibaldi, à travers l'individu exceptionnel et son dramatique destin, au delà même du forgeur de l'unité italienne, c'est « l'accélérateur d'une Histoire inéluctablement en marche au milieu des forces retardatrices ou des forces d'inertie. Au premier rang desquelles M. Tersen place évidemment la papauté du pouvoir temporel et sa protectrice, la France ; la Prusse, l'Autriche, bien sûr ; mais aussi l'opportunisme de Victor-Emmanuel et de Cavour.

Chez eux, pourtant, quelle astuce souveraine – faut-il dire machiavélique ? – à utiliser Garibaldi : toujours en glorieux franc-tireur, ce qui permet de se désolidariser de son action, de le désavouer (au besoin, le faire arrêter), de lui donner bien haut des ordres en sachant qu'il désobéira, et de protester à la face des puissances, la France en particulier : « Ce n'est pas moi C'est lui, c'est ce rebelle. » Le roi et son ministre ont excellé à ce double jeu dont Garibaldi α plus d'une fois souffert, sans être dupe, mais non plus partenaire. Personne qui soit plus étranger que lui à la « combinazione ».

M. Tersen analyse avec acuité le personnage de Cavour et ses rapports avec Garibaldi. « Le diplomate et le héros » -sujet de pendule un peu simpliste. L'erreur serait de ne voir en Garibaldi qu'un sublime baroudeur : chez lui, certes, l'idée se fait aussitôt action, mais elle n'en a pas moins un profond ressort politique. Et bien plus fermement tendu et orienté dans le sens de l'histoire, pense M. Tersen, que la subtile pensée diplomatique de Cavour. A un moment amer de sa vie, Garibaldi a dit qu'il était l'orange qu'on jette après l'avoir pressée. Pour M. Tersen, l'orange, c'était Victor-Emmanuel et le cavourisme : facteurs nécessaires de l'Unité – qui n est elle-même qu'une étape et un moyen – celle-ci accomplie, les agents accidentels doivent être rejetés. Tandis que Garibaldi, bien qu'il n'ait pas lu Marx et soit le contraire d'un doctrinaire, à travers son Italie, c'est toute l'Histoire dont il précipite la marche « en avant ». Dans sa bouche, Avanti ! n'est plus un cri italien : il exprime tout le progrès, et même le progressisme, universel. Ce n'est pas par romantisme (ou pas seulement) mais par conscience et instinct révolutionnaires qu'il répugne si fort à la « politique de renards », aux « faiseurs politiques » et à leurs * traités diplomatiques ». Non qu'il blâme le réalisme et la prudence, dont il donne lui-même les meilleurs exemples, mais dans l'opportunisme qu'on lui oppose il sent des intérêts qui, pour aller provisoirement dans le même sens, ne sont pas ceux de la nation et du peuple.

Pouvait-on aller plus vite ? Laisser plus libre carrière à ce brûleur d'étapes ? – Non, sans doute, dans la situation de l'Europe. Pour passer outre, avec chance de succès, à une situation telle, il faut un pouvoir révolutionnaire. Garibaldi n'était pas le pouvoir, et sans doute il ne pouvait pas l'être. Et le royaume du Piémont n'était ni la France de 1792 ni la Russie de 1917. Entre Cavour et lui, l'opposition des tempéraments et du mobile politique s'est comme symboliquement cristallisée sur Rome. Or la « question romaine n'était pas italienne, mais européenne, sinon mondiale. Cavour était bien obligé d'en tenir compte. Ce n'est certes pas sur lui que par deux fois Garibaldi s'est brisé, mais contre les fusils français.

M. Tersen ne résiste pas au plaisir intellectuel de faire fonctionner rétrospectivement les aiguillages de l'histoire. Comblant les voeux de Garibaldi et répondant à l'invite de Victor-Emanuel, que Napoléon III en 1870 eût payé de Rome l'alliance italienne qui entraînait celle de l'Autriche, la guerre sans doute n'aurait pas eu lieu. Soit. Mais l'empire était consolidé. L'accélérateur jouait donc aussi comme un frein. Tout eût été plus beau, certes, si Garibaldi avait conduit à la victoire les armées de la jeune République française. (M. Tersen suggère que ce n'était pas une chimère). Trop beau, sans doute : le temps des Jeanne d'Arc était déjà passé. Lui, en tout cas, aura été assez heureux ou assez simple pour n'avoir pas à lier le triomphe de son idée de l'homme à la défaite de sa patrie ; pour poursuivre une victoire unique par une guerre qu'il a toujours cru juste.

(1) Club français du Livre.

La Revue internationale des sciences sociales consacre le premier numéro de son quatorzième volume à cet important facteur d'évolution sociale qu'est la modification du statut de la femme.

A la suite d'enquêtes effectuées sous la direction de M. Paul Chombart de Lauwe en plusieurs pays (France, Maroc, Autriche, Yougoslavie, Pologne), des sociologues s'efforcent de préciser le nouveau rôle que devront assumer les femmes dans les sociétés industrielles et les réactions que ce bouleversement suscite chez les hommes.

Unesco, Paris, 1962.

Après nous avoir brossé dans la Chine et son ombre un tableau remarquable de la Chine communiste depuis 1948, M. Tibor Mende remonte maintenant aux origines du régime actuel et analyse les facteurs et les causes qui ont déterminé son succès.

De la chute de l'empire mandchou en 1911 à l'avènement des communistes on assiste à la naissance de la République et à ses revers ; derrière Sun Yat-sen se profilent déjà les silhouettes de Mao et de Tchiang, tandis que peu à peu s'effacent celles des mandarins et des seigneurs de la guerre. Le rôle des puissances étrangères, occidentales et soviétique, est analysé ici avec concision et lucidité. Etant donnée l'importance da cette période décisive, on regrettera parfois la rapidité de l'ouvrage dont certains chapitres eussent mérité d'être développés.

Le Seuil, Paris, 1962.

C'est au premier lieutenant de police de Louis XIV qu'il revient d'avoir mis sur pied le premier corps de police de France, qui par la suite devait servir de modèle à de nombreux pays, tant dans son organisation interne que dans son fonctionnement.

Vider le ventre de Paris de ses mendiants, bandits, empoisonneuses, joueurs et tripoteurs ; nettoyer et assainir la capitale au point qu'elle recevra bientôt son fameux surnom de « Ville Lumière », lutter contre les huguenots, les comploteurs et les prostituées ; aucune tâche touchant de près ou de loin au maintien de l'ordre n'a échappé au grand commis de Louis XIV. L'évocation de l'oeuvre considérable qu'il a ainsi accomplie est pour l'auteur l'occasion de dépeindre d'une façon vivante et pittoresque, fort bien documentée, les aspects les plus secrets de Parts au dix-septième siècle.

[<>Hachette, Paris, 1962.]]