SWP

Auch wenn Israel als Sieger aus der jüng­sten Auseinandersetzung mit dem Iran hervorgegangen ist, herrscht langfristig ein Patt im Kräftemessen der vier großen Regionalmächte. Das ist gefährlich.

Donald Trump ist es gelungen, Indiens Vertrauen in die USA im Eiltempo zu zerstören. Ein Vasall Washingtons will Neu Delhi nicht werden, analysiert ein Südasienwissenschaftler.

Russia apparently aims to be capable of attacking targets in the Baltic Sea region from Lake Ladoga, which is located north of Saint Petersburg and only 40 kilometres from the Finnish border. Since 2023, Russia has been evaluating the deployment of corvettes equipped with cruise missiles there. Such warships have already carried out strikes deep into Syria and Ukraine. Their recent deployments to Lake Ladoga could complicate the defence of NATO’s north-eastern allies. Simulated launches were reportedly conducted for the first time in autumn 2024. However, NATO still lacks information about Lake Ladoga. Developments there underscore the need for con­ventional long-range fire capabilities into Russia’s strategic depth to deter Moscow effectively.

Warum Austausch, praktische Erfahrung und Flexibilität für eine moderne Diplomatie wichtig sind, die sich gegen martialische Tendenzen behaupten will. Außenpolitische Denkanstöße des ehemaligen Spitzendiplomaten Volker Stanzel anlässlich der ersten 100 Tage der neuen Bundesregierung

Peter Lintl zu den Plänen des israelischen Sicherheitskabinetts, die Stadt Gaza zu besetzen

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine marked the start of a prolonged confrontation between Moscow and Europe – one that is fundamentally reshaping the parameters of European security. The return of Donald Trump to the White House and his stated intent to quickly end the war in Ukraine and put pressure on the European allies including Ukraine to assume greater responsibility for their security is a second criti­cal inflection point. In this rapidly evolving security landscape, Europe faces the dual challenge of ensuring the long-term security of Ukraine, the Baltic states and the Black Sea region and strengthening the European Union’s defence and military capa­bil­ities. Turkey has a strategically significant, albeit politically contentious role to play within both contexts. What kind of an alignment might there be between the EU and Turkey, given that Ankara is simultaneously a partner, competitor, rival and even threat to EU member states? For its part, the European Union should adopt a gradual, pragmatic and interest driven approach to Turkey’s integration into the changing European security architecture. It should aim to reinforce the role of Europe – in­clud­ing Turkey – as a strategic and capable security actor while making clear that enhanced defence cooperation with Ankara and Turkey’s stalled EU accession process are two separate issues.

IISD’s Stefan Jungcurt has interviewed Marianne Beisheim, Senior Associate, Global Affairs, at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). Beisheim shares her perspectives on connecting science and policy for SDG implementation, UN reform, and keeping the momentum in an increasingly fragmented world.

Strengthening the Indo-German developmental agenda through AI

Ostentatious humiliation may bring Europe some breathing space in the short term. But that will be worthles unless we effectively and jointly reduce dependency on the US.

Aus zwei wurden drei nukleare Großmächte. Steht die Welt 80 Jahre nach dem Atombombeninferno von Hiroshima am 6. August 1945 vor einem neuen nuklearen Zeitalter? Eine Analyse.

Der Nahost-Experte Peter Lintl fordert angesichts des von der Hamas veröffentlichen Videos einen Geisel-Deal. Europa müsse aber auch auf die israelische Regierung Druck ausüben. Lintl sieht ein Mosaik an Möglichkeiten.

Turkey’s geopolitically motivated industrial and supply chain policy implies close ties to Germany as well as a security and economic policy orientation towards the EU. Ankara wants to bring production and sales into line with EU standards and establish a green high-tech and services economy. However, its decarbonisation measures remain inadequate. Turkish stakeholders see disruptions to global supply chains as creating the opportunity to relocate European production chains to Turkey (nearshoring). The government, the private sector and business organisations are all working to expand sustainable energy supplies. Turkey’s authoritarian domestic policy – namely, the dismantling of democracy, repression and disregard for the rule of law – makes it extremely difficult to deepen bilateral cooperation. Despite close economic ties, there are normative differences between Germany and Turkey and a consistent strategy to overcome them is lacking. Rather, the Turkish government is focused on using industrial policy to compensate for shortcomings in the rule of law. Amid the geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, Turkey is performing a delicate balancing act: it is maintaining its ties to the West while at the same time expanding its technology partnership with China and energy cooperation with Russia. German policy towards Turkey requires a strategic rethink. It should endeavour to promote economic stability, strengthen Turkey’s security policy integration into Europe and counteract Ankara’s strategic rapprochement with Moscow and Beijing. Going forward, cooperation should be made conditional on democracy, the rule of law and human rights.