REUTERS/Kostas Tsironis
En Grèce, où je viens de passer une semaine, personne ne doute qu’un accord (« symfonia » en grec) sera trouvé avec la zone euro et le FMI. Le syndicat communiste, le PAME, prépare même une manifestation pour protester contre cette « capitulation » attendue de la part d’un parti, Syriza, en qui il ne voit que la continuation du PASOK (socialiste) sous de nouveaux habits : il ne manque aux affiches et aux tracts que la date de la manif, comme l’explique en souriant Nikolas Thodorakis, le secrétaire national chargé des relations internationales. De fait, l’accord est en vue : les négociations se sont accélérées ces dernières heures entre Athènes, Bruxelles et Washington.
On est loin, très loin, des déclarations matamoresques de l’immédiat après 25 janvier, date des dernières élections législatives grecques qui ont vu la victoire de la gauche radicale, lorsque Yanis Varoufakis, tout juste nommé ministre des Finances, expliquait au New York Times que son pays pouvait se passer des 7,2 milliards d’euros que devaient encore lui verser ses créanciers comme solde du second programme d’aide (1). Depuis, le principe de réalité s’est imposé à la nouvelle équipe : le pays est de nouveau en récession (0,5 % de croissance attendue pour 2015 contre 2,5 % avant les élections), les Grecs retirent en masse leur argent des banques locales (35 milliards d’euros en six mois), mettant en péril le système bancaire qui ne survit que grâce aux prêts de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE), les investissements tant locaux qu’étrangers se sont effondrés (-7,5 %), les exportations chutent, les banques ne prêtent plus à personne faute de liquidités et l’État a cessé de payer ses factures aux entreprises afin de pouvoir continuer à verser salaires et retraites…
Cet avant-goût de « Grexit », une sortie de la Grèce de la zone euro, a convaincu Alexis Tsipras qu’il lui faudrait en passer par un accord avec ses créanciers pour obtenir les fameux 7,2 milliards d’euros et éviter la faillite et surtout lancer la négociation d’un troisième programme, la Grèce n’ayant aucune chance de revenir sur les marchés avant très longtemps : on estime qu’il faudra encore prêter au pays environ 50 milliards d’euros pour assurer son financement jusqu’en 2030 et ainsi lui assurer une certaine tranquillité… Comme le dit le très raisonnable Georges Stathakis, le ministre de l’Économie, « la conclusion d’un accord est la seule voie, il n’y a pas d’autres possibilités ». Mais comment y parvenir sans risquer de se voir désavouer par son parti dont une grosse minorité est prête à tenter une sortie de la zone euro au nom des principes ? C’est tout l’enjeu de la partie d’échecs que joue actuellement Tsipras qui sait que l’accord sera beaucoup plus dur que ce qu’il espérait, notamment parce que le généreux système de retraite local sera touché – pourtant l’une de ses lignes rouges-.
Comme le rappelle Elias Nikolakopoulos, professeur de sciences politiques à l’Université d’Athènes et proche de Syriza, « Tsipras n’a pas été élu pour sortir de la zone euro : entre 75 et 80 % des Grecs veulent rester dans la zone euro, ce qui représente une lourde contrainte ». Autrement dit, un Grexit, même accidentel, se paierait très cher sur le plan intérieur. Pour faire porter la responsabilité d’un éventuel échec à ses créanciers, il les accuse, comme il l’a fait dans une tribune publiée par Le Monde.fr dimanche, de faire preuve d’intransigeance. Mais l’objectif de ce « blame game » est en réalité double : il met aussi en scène sa résistance afin de montrer à son peuple qu’il s’est battu jusqu’au bout pour protéger la Grèce. « Tsipras parviendra à vendre un accord aux Grecs, je lui fais confiance », estime Nikolakopoulos qui connaît son homme.
La vraie bataille, en réalité, est interne à Syriza qui reste, il ne faut pas l’oublier, une confédération de partis qui vont de l’ultra gauche (y compris violente) à la sociale-démocratie, le parti ayant recueilli de très nombreux transfuges du PASOK qui ont voulu survivre au naufrage de leur parti (dix ministres sur quarante en sont issus). Le rapport de force entre fondamentalistes, si l’on peut dire, incarnés par la présidente de la Vouli, le parlement monocaméral grec, Zoé Konstantopoulou, et réalistes, camp auquel appartient Tsipras, s’établit à environ 45/55. Le 24 mai, le comité central du parti a ainsi rejeté par 95 voix contre 75 une motion appelant à faire défaut vis-à-vis du FMI et donc à sortir de l’euro… Autrement dit, Tsipras est majoritaire au sein de Syriza, même si c’est de peu, et cela est fondamental, car ses statuts imposent une discipline de vote : si le comité central accepte l’accord trouvé avec les créanciers, les députés Syriza devront voter en sa faveur ou quitter le parti. « Cela n’évitera pas des déperditions », prévient Nikolakopoulos, « qui pourront aller de 4-5 à plus d’une dizaine ».
Si Tsipras obtient un blanc seing de son parti, le vote au sein de la Vouli ne sera en tous les cas pas problématique. Certes, il n’y dispose que d’une courte majorité de 12 sièges (sur 300), grâce à son allié, ANEL, un parti de droite radicale (13 sièges). Même en cas de déperdition, les 17 députés du centre gauche de To Potami (la rivière) ont déjà annoncé qu’ils voteraient l’accord tout comme une partie du PASOK (socialistes). Et Nouvelle Démocratie (droite) devrait s’abstenir. Mais gagne au sein de la Vouli grâce aux voix de l’opposition, cela signifiera qu’il n’a plus de majorité, ce qui l’obligera à convoquer de nouvelles élections à la rentrée (en juillet et en août, les Grecs sont en vacances). Nikolakopoulos estime que de telles élections seront en tout état de cause nécessaires : George Papandréou, l’ancien premier ministre socialiste, n’avait pas voulu convoquer des élections anticipées à l’automne 2010 pour faire valider le premier mémorandum, ce qu’il a payé très cher, le PASOK ayant depuis été quasiment absorbé par Syriza. « Un référendum serait une autre solution, mais on sait très bien que la réponse sera aléatoire ».
L’opération devrait être sans risque pour Tsipras : sa cote de popularité est importante et Syriza a, dans les sondages, près de 20 points d’avance sur ND, les électeurs conservateurs continuant à fuir leur parti… Bénéfice supplémentaire, il pourrait, au passage, se débarrasser d’une partie de son extrême-gauche qui lui cause bien des soucis. Bien sûr, il faudra qu’il avance à pas comptés jusque ce rendez-vous électoral, toute réforme douloureuse pour telle ou telle partie de la population pouvant conduire au retournement d’un électorat particulièrement volatil. D’où l’importance de la mise en scène actuelle : il faut qu’il apparaisse comme le bouclier de son peuple, celui qui a évité des sacrifices trop importants. Le FMI, le plus dur des créanciers de la Grèce, devrait tenir compte des contraintes de politique intérieure grecque et lâcher du lest afin de permettre à Tsipras de gagner la délicate partie de politique intérieure qu’il mène.
(1) 1,8 milliard du Mécanisme européen de stabilité (MES), environ 2 milliards représentant des ristournes d’intérêts consentis par la BCE sur la dette grecque qu’elle détient et 3,2 milliards prêtés par le FMI.
June 2, 2015 (KHARTOUM)- Speaking at his swearing-in ceremony, Sudan's president Omer al-Bashir vowed to pursue dialogue with the West to normalize relations and announced that the national dialogue would kick off soon.
Bashir, 71, won re-election with 94% of the vote in an election boycotted by opposition and marred by low voter turnout, extending his nearly three-decade rule for another five years.
The inauguration ceremony was attended by several heads of state and government including Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Zimbabwe's president Robert Mugabe, Chadian president Idris Deby, Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta and Ethiopian prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn among others.
South Sudan was represented by its Vice-President James Wani, Qatar by the deputy prime minister and minister of state for cabinet affairs Ahmed bin Abdullah Al-Mahmoud, and Saudi Arabia by its state minister Mansour Bin Mutaib.
"Sudan will seek, God willing and with an open heart to complete dialogue with Western countries to return relations to normal guided by the recent positive indicators," Bashir said in his speech before the Sudanese legislators.
He further pledged to exert the necessary efforts to attract Arab capital to invest in food security projects in Sudan.
Relations between Sudan and Western countries deteriorated since the military coup d'état that brought Bashir to power in June 1989. But the arrest warrant over Darfur crimes against him dimmed any opportunity to improve relations as the country has been already under US economic sanctions since 1997 for alleged support of terrorism.
However, following the separation of South Sudan and considering the regional instability, the US administration and a number of European countries are reviewing their relations with Khartoum. But Washington still links between the normalization process and peace and democratic reforms.
A US delegation is expected in Khartoum during the upcoming weeks for talks on bilateral relations.
NATIONAL DIALOGUE
Bashir further reiterated his commitment to the national dialogue process that he launched in December 2013 and called to the holdout forces from the opposition and rebel groups to join it.
"I can assure your esteemed Assembly that we finalized the arrangements and identified mechanisms of the comprehensive national dialogue with its political and social tracks for which we called all people last year," he told the lawmakers.
"It will begin its activities, with the benediction of God, in the next few days," he said.
He further renewed his call for the "undecided" or "refusing" opposition parties to join the internal process and directed the same call for the rebel groups that "have chosen the path of violence".
Also, he renewed the offer of full amnesty for rebels who sincerely want to return to participate in the dialogue.
"We welcome them all around the table of dialogue to get out a document acceptable to all the people of Sudan," he stressed.
The Sudanese government said the dialogue process should take place inside the country without any foreign involvement.
However, it accepted that the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) facilitate the process through talks on the security arrangements with the rebel groups including the ceasefire.
But Khartoum refused last March to take part in a preparatory meeting for the national dialogue arguing it will send a wrong message to the Sudanese people and asked for it to be held it after the elections.
The alliance of the opposition and rebel forces wants to create a new process for peace and constitutional reforms involving the international community.
The Sudanese president vowed to work for the welfare of all the Sudanese and to improve the economy of the country.
He also pledged to fight corruption and nepotism announcing that around 8,000 tons of gold reserves have been identified in the country worth $330 billion.
(ST)
June 2, 2015 (JUBA) - The disintegrated leadership of South Sudan's ruling party, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), will convene a high-level consultative meeting in the third week of June in Juba to discuss reunification process. This will be based on the roadmap agreement signed in Arusha, Tanzania, by three rival factions early this year.
President Salva Kiir's spokesperson, Ateny Wek Ateny, on Tuesday said the meeting will bring together SPLM of former detainees, led by former secretary general, Pagan Amum and SPLM in government under president Kiir.
Ateny said the aim of the summit, which he said will also take place in the country's national capital, Juba, will be to assess progress made in the implementation of the Arusha intra-party agreement.
Scheduled for 26 June, the meeting, he said, is expected to be attended by leaders of Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia.
The president's spokesman did not however say whether representatives of the main armed opposition faction of SPLM led by former vice president, Riek Machar, will also take part or not in the planned summit.
He pointed out that president Kiir on Tuesday met and held talks with an advance preparatory team of the former detainees led by Deng Alor Kuol following their return on Monday from neighbouring Kenya where they lived in exile for the past one year.
The 5-member delegation of the ex-detainees, sometimes referred to as G-10, who returned to Juba on Monday included Deng Alor, former cabinet affairs minister and team leader, John Luk Jok, former justice minister, Kosti Manibe Ngai, former finance minister, Cirino Hiteng, former youth minister and Madut Biar, former postal service minister.
Others who remained behind included Pagan Amum Okiech, former SPLM secretary general, Oyai Deng Ajak, former national security minister, Majak Agoot, former deputy defence minister, Gier Chuang Aluong, former roads minister and Chol Tong Mayai, former governor of Lakes state.
The ex-political detainees fled to exile in 2014 following their release from detention after they were accused of allegedly masterminding a plot in 2013 to topple the government through unconstitutional means; charges they dismissed as false.
But Ateny said the returning officials have expressed readiness to work with president Kiir and members of his administration with the view of putting their acts together and efforts aimed at reunifying the ranks and file of the ruling party.
They also announced that their delegation will equally visit the leadership of the SPLM-IO in Pagak and hold similar talks aimed at unifying the party.
Earlier, spokesperson for the leader of SPLM-IO said they were not sure about intentions of the former detainees who unilaterally decided to travel to Juba to allegedly mediate between Machar's group and the government.
In reaction to the slated meeting in Juba to implement the Arusha agreement in June, SPLM-IO said they would also discuss with the mediation in the intra-party dialogue a way forward.
“As we stated earlier we are committed to the Arusha tripartite intra-party dialogue. Any other new proposed mechanism for the reunification process should seek prior consultation and agreement with our leadership,” said Machar's spokesman, James Gatdet Dak.
On the announced plan by former detainees to visit Pagak to hold talks with Machar, he said the opposition leadership would welcome the visit so as to hear from the former detainees what their new initiative was all about.
He however pointed out that there was still need to finalize negotiations on the Arusha intra-party reunification process, explaining that what was signed was only a ‘roadmap” agreement to guide further dialogue towards reaching a final agreement for the party.
The opposition group further explained that a party agreement would only complement the Addis Ababa comprehensive peace process under the mediation of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), saying the issues that need to be resolved have become national beyond the SPLM party.
Representatives of the warring parties are invited by IGAD for a consultative meeting on 8 June before the talks can resume under an expanded mediation mechanism which will include countries and international bodies beyond African continent.
(ST)
June 2, 2015 (JUBA) – The South Sudanese government has explained circumstances under which it expelled Toby Lanzer, the United Nations relief coordinator in the country.
The spokesperson for the presidency said the council of ministers reached the decision during its weekly meeting held on Friday last week.
“This [decision] came as a result of council of ministers' resolution against the background of the statement he has made that is not responsible completely,” Ateny told reporters on Tuesday.
He described UN official as an “enemy”, who allegedly predicted that the South Sudanese economy would collapse, a statement in "violation" of his UN mandate.
“And Toby Lanzer's statement was not giving hope to people of South Sudan given that he was predicting the collapse, the total collapse [of the country],” he said at a briefing in the capital, Juba.
On Tuesday, the UN secretary general, Ban Ki Moon condemned the expulsion of the Lanzer, urging South Sudan government to reverse its decision towards the UN envoy.
But Ateny said only president Salva Kiir had the prerogative to reverse the council of ministers' decision, which held at the moment.
“If a country collapses, it will be rule of guns that will prevail and so anybody who makes statements that would not give hope to people of South Sudan is an enemy of South Sudan,” he stressed.
South Sudan's information minister, Michael Makuei Lueth accused the former UN relief coordinator of uttering “misleading” statements.
“That guy [Lanzer] has been making untruthful statements,” he said.
EU AND UN CONDEMN EXPULSION
The European Union delegation joined the UN secretary general in condemning South Sudan's decision to expel the senior UN humanitarian official.
"The Heads of Mission join UN secretary general Ban Ki Moon in condemning the decision of the government of South Sudan to expel Mr Toby Lanzer, deputy special representative of the secretary general,” the EU said in a statement issued Tuesday.
Lanzer, the delegation members said in a joint statement, had spared no effort on behalf of the millions of victims of the man-made crisis in world's youngest nation.
“He has echoed the views of many members of the international community who believe it is time the leaders of South Sudan pay heed to the suffering of their people, and make the decisions and compromises that their people and the deepening humanitarian tragedy demand,” added the statement also extended to Sudan Tribune.
They further called for the reinstatement by the South Sudanese government of the expelled UN humanitarian coordinator to enable him complete his term of appointment.
“The heads of mission further call for all those who are working in the humanitarian field, from UN agencies and non-governmental organisations alike, to be accorded full respect and for their vital work to be facilitated by the Government of South Sudan,” it said.
Lanzer, a Briton, was last month appointed for another UN mission in the Sahel region.
(ST)
June 2, 2015 (KHARTOUM) - The fighters of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) killed six Sudanese soldiers in an attack on a Sudanese military convoy in the troubled South Kordofan state.
Reports from the region say the Sudanese army intensified during the past days attacks on the rebel stronghold town of Kauda, in preparation of a ground operations.
In a statement extended to Sudan Tribune on Tuesday, SPLM-N official spokesperson, Arnu Ngutulu Lodi the ambush took place on the road between Shamshaka and Teri village in Rashad county.
“Six enemy forces were killed and more than 25 others wounded, two land cruisers completely destroyed and the following equipment captured in good condition, 1- one Doshka MG, 2- six pcs AKM rifles,” Lodi said.
The Sudanese army spokesperson was not reachable for comment.
The Sudanese government and rebel group failed to reach a cessation of hostilities agreement after a series of talks brokered by the African Union High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) in December 2014.
Since, the fighting between the warring parties resumed in South Kordofan and Blue Nile.
(ST)
Die EU-Kommission bereitet einen "diplomatischen Energieaktionsplan" für die Diversifizierung der Erdgaslieferungen in die EU vor. Algeriens große unerschlossene Reserven spielen dabei eine Schlüsselrolle. Bis zum nächsten Jahr will die Kommission auch eine Flüssigerdgas-Strategie vorlegen. EurActiv Brüssel berichtet.