Britain's David Cameron addresses the press on his way into the EU summit on Thursday evening
David Cameron is in a hole. His flagship policy to curb EU migration – a four-year ban on benefits for migrant workers – looks doomed. When it was announced more than a year ago, Cameron was told it violated a fundamental EU principle of non-discrimination. If the EU stands for anything, it is ensuring EU workers don’t pay a higher effective tax rate on the basis of their passport.
This was flagged up by British officials at the time. Cameron nevertheless ploughed on. While Downing Street were drafting the Conservative party election manifesto, aides suggested leaving out the four-year idea. He ploughed on. When Mr Cameron preparing a letter to other EU leaders on his reform demands, he was told by Whitehall and Brussels the four-year ban was all but impossible and should be dropped. He ploughed on.
The final reckoning may come this evening. Cameron makes a make-or-break pitch for the idea. Having spent far too long trying to understand how the problem will be fixed, it may also be my last opportunity to inflict a benefit reform listicle on Brussels Blog readers.
So while there is still time: behold the nine ways Cameron’s four-year benefits saga may end.
Read moreAs I have emphasized for many months, in fact from the very beginning of the migration crisis, there is no good alternative to border protection. And this is why I welcome with great satisfaction the European Commission's proposal of strengthening our external borders, because in fact border control is a conditio sine qua non of each and every migration policy.
Border protection is and should be in the first place the domain of national states. This is why we have to analyse the most controversial idea of the European Border Guard entering the territory of sovereign states.
But Europe cannot remain vulnerable when Schengen states are not able to effectively protect their borders. If we reject the Commission's proposal, we will have to find another, but I'm afraid, an equally painful solution.
Also crucial is of course the UK issue. The consultations I have led with all Member States show good will of all the parties involved, but it doesn't change the fact that some parts of the British proposal seem unacceptable. However, if Prime Minister Cameron persuades leaders tonight that we can work together to find solutions regarding all four baskets, then we will have a real chance to strike a deal in February.
And finally, on EMU. Even if Europe is overwhelmed by the migration crisis today, we cannot afford to wait with the necessary reforms for better days. This summit should make clear whether Member States are ready to take difficult decisions on the Banking Union and economic governance.