The Presidential election that is taking place in the Republic of Congo will tell us much about the progress of democracy in the country, as well as our own western attitudes towards African democracy.
The pundits are confident that Angela Merkel will next year enter a fourth term as leader of one of the world’s great democracies. Shortly after that, David Cameron will voluntarily hand over his role as UK prime minister to whoever the UK Conservative Party – as opposed to the UK public – chooses. Two of Cameron’s three immediate predecessors served three terms. And, indeed, Lynton Crosby, the strategist credited with Cameron’s election successes, carried out exactly the same role for four-term Australian premier John Howard.
In Europe, the question of term limits for national leaders is never mentioned by voters. Where it is referred to at all, it is the stuff of rarefied discourse in academic common rooms. The priorities for electors are, as ever, the economy, public safety and security, healthcare, education and other staples.
In broad terms, the priorities of African voters are no different: why would they be? So when these voters are told by people in developed nations, often their former colonial masters, that they should not re-elect the same person more than once – regardless of any perceived public benefit that person or party may bring – this makes so little sense to them and appears so nakedly hypocritical that they suspect ulterior motives.
The democratic period was proceeded by a Marxist one-party state and civil war, and began early this century. It has been one of consistent economic growth, increasingly successful healthcare, literacy rates that rank amongst Africa’s highest, and a tax-to-GDP ratio at the EU average. The Republic’s main cities, Brazzaville and Pointe Noire, are safe and public security is significantly better than in most neighbouring states.
The nation works constructively with the Bretton Woods institutions, has an inflation rate of around 2% and a declining unemployment rate. It is an exemplary member of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), the leading world body that works to assure transparency in the extractives sectors. The country is presently being punished as much as any other economy reliant on oil revenue, yet it is working hard to diversify.
It is far from perfect, of course. In terms of social policy and development, there is much work to do. The Congolese understand this. In their streets, bars, homes and workplaces people talk keenly about priorities and hopes; and about their aspirations for their children (the average age in the Congo is a fraction under 20).
In many ways, though, Congolese people want more of the same – only better. They do not seem blinkered or downtrodden. They are as quick with criticism of government and politicians as citizens across Europe – an evening spent watching television brings this home quite forcibly. The fundamental difference is that they understand how bad things could be. Only last week, they saw on their televisions the terrorist murders in neighbouring Cote d’Ivoire and gaze daily across the great Congo river at the much less well-off and unstable Democratic Republic of Congo. They believe that things will continue to progress in their own country, and for the largest part believe that the president who has delivered all of this change remains preferable to the unknown.
I prefer to think, however, that it is goodwill, and not hypocrisy that has led to this ‘third-term’ disconnect. Many Europeans are passionate in wanting the best for those African states that we harmed at birth or later through neglect and brutal interventionism. In the 21st century, some of that passion translates into postcolonial guilt. But it is no less real for all that.
Yet here in Brazzaville, it feels very much like the European insistence on a two-term maximum ought to be a suggestion rather than a demand disguised as a moral imperative. If we truly wish to assist these proud sovereign states, Africans should never be expected to interpret our advice as orders.
The 2015 constitutional change that allowed Sassou Nguesso to stand again also brought in shorter presidencies, and passed to parliament the important power to appoint the re-instated post of prime minister. It reformed and gave significant new powers to the constitutional court. Additionally, it gave official status to the opposition, created a series of new national consultative bodies, beefed up human rights guarantees and introduced significant electoral reforms. It abolished the death penalty: no small feat. Yet these measures have been largely overlooked whilst we in the west remain fixated on the “third-term”.
It may be true that political term-limits foster strong institutions that act to check and balance governments and to prevent poor practice. Yet we in Europe have not reached consensus on that question ourselves, and therefore can hardly place it as the over-riding requirement of a nation’s progress. Moreover, Congo-B is a good example of a democratic African country whose people choose their leader freely but only for one more term, and even then on a strict basis of social and economic ‘deliverables’.
In this new, and dare one say even optimistic, era of African democracy the same laws of physics and politics seem likely to apply eventually. So, for now, Denis Sassou Nguessou is as popular as the Congo’s progress under his leadership would seem to justify. And perhaps for now we should accept African third-termers as a historical conclusion of the lifetimes’ work of the actual individuals who brought their nations through the tough times we ourselves created in the early 1960s.
Given a choice between a hopelessly split, ineffectual and often self-serving opposition against a capable operator and leader who won his political spurs in the toughest of ways and is committed to building on the solid foundations that he has created, the people of the people of the Republic of Congo look set to chose Denis Sassou Nguesso. That seems fair enough.
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Spending in Presidential races is breaking one record after another, but money alone does not buy power.
Since July 2010, when a US federal court decision allowed for the creation of “independent” expenditure committees that can raise unlimited amounts of money from corporations, unions, associations, and individuals, spending in US politics has been spiraling out of control. In 2016 alone, according to a lobbying industry monitor, nearly $260 million have been spent. That is a third of what was spent in 2012 for the Presidential campaign as a whole.
Of course, those so called Super-PACs cannot donate money directly to a political candidate and cannot coordinate their spending with campaign manager, but they can spend to support the candidates of their liking independently. However, money alone does not seem to buy public “love.”
The proof is that the most successful in money raising was Jeb Bush, who nonetheless was forced to drop out of the race in February, failing to win even a single primary. One Super Pac standing behind him named “Right to Rise USA” had amassed $118,685,876 for a candidate that did not make it even to the top three of the race. His campaign raised $157,6 million, but only had the time to spend $30,7.
Up to now, donors have spent $200 million on candidates dropping out of the race, with money buying little more than this air, unless seen of course as a long term investment.
Through polarizing, violent, and politically incorrect language, Donald Trump has secured thousands of hours’ worth of media coverage completely free. That was also better quality coverage, since political advertising is thrown into audience with “saturated” attention spans, who may be trained to bounce off political messaging during dense campaigns with a multitude of candidates. As a self-pronounced “anti-establishment” choice, Trump renounced seper PACS and is paying a lot out of his own pocket.
Still, money does talk.
Hillary Clinton’s primary super PAC has raised $51 million, which may not be needed in the primaries. In addition, her campaign has raised $188 million, has spent $97,5 and she has $32 million cash in hand.
That is approximately double the money Bernie Sanders has raised. His campaign boasts 5 million unique contributors, and has raised $96,3 million, but has spent already $81,6. And he has no Super PAC money.
No one can enter a race without serious money. Money is in-itself part of the campaign and is counted as much as endorsements. It is power. But, votes are not a commodity and there are many ways to getting media attention.
(Yahoo Finance, New York Times)
The post US Primaries: money alone can’t buy love appeared first on New Europe.
The Republic of Congo is a country that has undertaken a dramatic and often traumatic journey over a relatively short period of time, and headed to elections this Sunday, 20 March.
The country has been stabilised through a new constitution and a new political settlement between conflicting partners, enabled by President Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has been leading the country since 1997, and before that between 1979 and 1993. The Congo now seems to be on the right path on a long journey towards building a viable, stable and democratic future.
Although the legal and institutional framework has progressively improved, the Congo is still a young and maturing democracy. The lack of a deep rooted democratic culture means that there are likely to be isolated incidents from across the political spectrum.
The Congo has seen several successful parliamentary and presidential elections since 2002 which were viewed by international observers as fair and free. The 2012 parliamentary election was particularly well-viewed by observers from the International Organisation of the Francophonie.
Despite the challenges of transitioning towards a mature democracy, very significant progress has been made in recent years. The most recent and significant changes include an increasingly sophisticated electoral law and a Constitution that has increasingly protected human rights, civil liberties and democracy, while also providing greater checks and balances. This is particularly true of the 2015 Constitution and the 2016 Electoral Law.
On a diplomatic mission in Brussels in early March, the Foreign Minister of the Republic of Congo, Jean-Claude Gakosso met with Federica Mogherini, the high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy, Didier Reynders, the Belgian foreign minister, and Patrick I. Gomes, the Secretary General of the African, Caribbean Pacific Group of States (ACP).
“We came to Brussels, heart of Europe and EU headquarters to reassure our partners about our sincere wish to continue our longstanding cooperation with the EU and reassure them of the sincerity of our electoral process. In two weeks the Congolese go to the polls. We have provided information on the institutional changes undertaken in our country and I have the feeling that we have received attentive care,” Gakosso told media in Brazzaville.
The European Union will not send an official monitoring to the upcoming Congolese presidential elections, which will take place on 20 March 2016. Instead European member state ambassadors will report on the elections back to the EU institutions. Individual monitors are also being sent, including Michel Kafando, Former Acting President of Burkina Faso on behalf of the Organisation internationale de la Francophonie (OIF).
The Congolese foreign minister added that there was a convergence of opinion with his partners on the fact that Congolese citizens have to decide about their destiny since “sovereignty is an indisputable and non negotiable principle”.
Current election pollsFinally, according to Africa metrics polls, Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has been the President of the Republic of the Congo since 1997, is the favoured Congolese candidate and is most likely to achieve a comfortable victory. One poll showed 67% of voters intend to vote for him.
While a large majority of respondents to the poll believe the economic development and employment are the major challenges of Congo, 76% of respondents think there will be an amelioration of the economic situation of the country in the near future. The poll also shows that what the Congolese population is most dissatisfied about is education and most satisfied with national security.
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But how will this money be spent? Not well if a report into the EU’s spending on migration policy between 2007 and 2013 is anything to go by.
The European Court of Auditors has chastised Brussels for failing to plan or monitor its projects properly — and not being able to demonstrate how €1.1bn of funds were spent.
Read moreTusk, right, arrives in Nicosia for meetings with the Cypriot president earlier this week
At a meeting of all 28 ambassadors to the EU late yesterday, aides to Donald Tusk, the European Council president, circulated a new three-page draft of a migration deal with Turkey that will serve as the basis of two days of summit talks aimed at securing an agreement with Ankara by Friday.
We got our hands on the draft and have posted it here. Much of the text reflects the emerging consensus of European officials that has emerged over the last week, be it on the legality of the mass return policy of migrants from Greece to Turkey or on the sticky issue of getting Cyprus to sign onto any pact.
Because many of the issues are couched in opaque diplomatese, Brussels Blog hereby offers an annotated version of the key parts of the text:
Read moreThe relations between the European Union and Kosovo are based on the Stabilisation and Association Agreement signed on 27 October, in Brussels.
When we last met in December, I pledged that Europe would stay the course on Ukraine, and I asked the same of Ukraine. Since then, we have delivered on that commitment.
The Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area is now provisionally applied, which will contribute to improving Ukraine's economy and strengthen its economic reform agenda.
Tomorrow marks two years since the illegal annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol by the Russian Federation. I assured President Poroshenko that our policy of non-recognition will remain in place.
We continue to support the diplomatic efforts aimed at implementing the Minsk agreements. Further determined efforts are needed. Our economic sanctions against Russia remain linked to the complete fulfilment of the Minsk Agreements.
We have also discussed the issue of Nadiya Savchenko, who is still in illegal detention in Russia. Let me in this context reiterate the call by the EU for her immediate release, along with Oleh Sentsov and all other illegally detained Ukrainian citizens.
President Poroshenko also outlined the efforts to overcome current political difficulties inside Ukraine. I hope that a solution will soon be found, which will enable Ukraine to continue the reforms demanded by the Ukrainian people. The IMF package needs to be delivered in full and the EU stands by you in these reform efforts.
I am also happy to note that further steps have been taken on visa liberalisation. Following the positive report by the Commission in December, Ukraine has taken the key steps in meeting its outstanding commitments. I trust it will soon be possible to take the next steps towards finalising this process.
Now let me make a few short comments on the European Council meeting. Most of the attention is focused on the objective to agree on a further strengthening of our cooperation with Turkey. As the negotiations intensify and we are moving into difficult talks, I want to recall three basic principles that will guide our work.
First, the agreement must be acceptable to all 28 Member States, no matter big or small.
Second, the agreement must fully comply with EU and international law.
And third, the agreement must effectively help to solve the migration crisis and contribute to our comprehensive strategy, which includes getting back to Schengen, ending the wave-through policy, humanitarian assistance to Greece, support to the Western Balkans and of course the reinforced cooperation with Turkey.
Only if we all work together in a coordinated manner and keep our cool, will we achieve success. I am cautiously optimistic, but frankly speaking more cautious than optimistic.