Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Deutschland ist im dritten Quartal im Vergleich zu den vorherigen drei Monaten überraschend gestiegen, laut Statistischem Bundesamt um 0,1 Prozent. Dazu ein Statement von DIW-Konjunkturchef Claus Michelsen:
Die deutsche Wirtschaft scheint besser durch den Sommer gekommen zu sein als erwartet. Die Zeichen für eine tiefer greifende Rezession hatten sich zuletzt ohnehin etwas verflüchtigt – dass die Wirtschafsleistung im dritten Quartal um 0,1 Prozent gestiegen ist, überrascht dennoch. Denn vor allem der schier unendliche Brexit-Prozess und die Handelskonflikte haben deutliche Spuren hinterlassen. Nach dem Durchhänger im zweiten Quartal hat sich die deutsche Wirtschaft aber trotz oder gerade wegen der Widrigkeiten wieder etwas berappelt. So war es vor allem der Außenhandel, der positiv überrascht hat – dies kann aber wie im ersten Quartal auch eine Auswirkung des drohenden Brexits widerspiegeln. Auch im Frühjahr entwickelten sich die Ausfuhren vor allem in das Vereinigte Königreich recht kräftig. Grund dafür war, dass die Lagerhaltung aufgestockt wurde, um den Risiken eines harten Brexits begegnen zu können. Übermäßige Euphorie ist daher unangebracht, denn insgesamt bleibt die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung schwach. Gerade die maue Investitionstätigkeit verdeutlicht, dass die deutsche Industrie angeschlagen ist. Die schwache Industriekonjunktur – allen voran die Probleme in der Automobilindustrie – dürften auch an den Verbraucherinnen und Verbrauchern nicht spurlos vorbeigehen. Letztlich ist und bleibt die Binnenkonjunktur aber eine Wachstumsstütze, trotz allem. Die Geschäftserwartungen der Unternehmen haben sich zuletzt etwas aufgehellt und die Bestellungen von Waren und Dienstleistungen sind gestiegen. Auch die Anlegerinnen und Anleger an den Finanzmärkten zeigten sich zuletzt optimistischer. Unter dem Strich dürfte die deutsche Wirtschaft im Gesamtjahr 2019 um 0,5 Prozent wachsen, was deutlich weniger ist als im vergangenen Jahr, angesichts des schwachen weltwirtschaftlichen Umfelds und der Exportabhängigkeit der deutschen Wirtschaft aber immer noch ganz ordentlich erscheint.Zur Ankündigung des Elektroautobauers Tesla, ein Werk in der Region Berlin-Brandenburg zu errichten, äußert sich der DIW-Ökonom Alexander Schiersch, wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter in der Abteilung Unternehmen und Märkte am Deutschen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin), wie folgt:
Die Entscheidung von Tesla für ein Werk in der Nähe Berlins ist ein ermutigendes Signal für den Automobilstandort Deutschland. Das Know-how und die Kapazitäten im Bereich der Elektromobilität und Batterietechnik würden hierzulande deutlich gestärkt. Die deutschen Autobauer müssen sich deshalb keine Sorgen machen, im Gegenteil: auch sie profitieren. Durch eine Tesla-Produktion in Deutschland würde die gesamte Zulieferindustrie hierzulande gestärkt. Außerdem können bestehende Kapazitäten erhalten bleiben und sogar neue geschaffen werden, wenn ein zusätzlicher Nachfrager auf dem Markt aktiv ist. Und nicht zuletzt ist die Nachricht auch für die Region Berlin-Brandenburg eine gute: Zusätzliche Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung stärkt die Wirtschaft und den Arbeitsmarkt im Großraum Berlin, zudem gewinnt die Region international an Sichtbarkeit. Und Ostdeutschland insgesamt würde durch eine solch massive Investition von Tesla in einem wichtigen industriellen Zukunftsfeld einen großen Schritt nach vorne machen.Immer mehr Frauen sind erwerbstätig, oft aber nur in Teilzeit – Stundenlohnlücke zwischen Teilzeit- und Vollzeitjobs deutlich gestiegen – Gesetz zu Rückkehrrecht auf Vollzeitstelle sollte durch weitere Maßnahmen flankiert werden, um Teilzeitfalle zu begegnen
Die Erwerbsbeteiligung von Frauen ist in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten stark gestiegen – immer mehr von ihnen arbeiten jedoch in Teilzeit: Im Jahr 2017 waren es 36 Prozent, über zehn Prozentpunkte mehr als Mitte der 1990er Jahre. Gleichzeitig ist der sogenannte Part-time Wage Gap, also die Stundenlohnlücke zwischen einem Vollzeit- und einem Teilzeitjob, deutlich gewachsen, von fünf Prozent Mitte der 1990er Jahre auf mittlerweile rund 17 Prozent. Das sind zentrale Ergebnisse einer aktuellen Studie des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin). „Einerseits ist es eine gute Nachricht, dass immer mehr Frauen erwerbstätig sind, wenn auch viele nur in Teilzeit – sie haben ein eigenes Erwerbseinkommen und somit auch eigene Ansprüche an die sozialen Sicherungssysteme“, sagt Katharina Wrohlich, Leiterin der Forschungsgruppe Gender Economics am DIW Berlin. „Andererseits haben Teilzeitjobs Nachteile: Der Stundenlohn ist oft geringer, auch weil die Tätigkeiten öfter einfache und manuelle sind – diese Unterschiede sind zuletzt noch deutlich größer geworden“, so Wrohlich.
When the Security Council mandated the United Nations peacekeeping operation in Sierra Leone to protect civilians in 1999, there was neither a clear definition of POC (protection of civilians) nor a way to account for action peacekeepers had taken to protect civilians. Over the last two decades, the UN Secretariat and peacekeeping missions in the field have developed a body of policy documents and training modules, and established practical tools and mechanisms to clarify and standardize the way POC should be implemented. In 2015, the UN policy on POC laid out three tiers of protection: protection through dialogue and engagement, provision of physical protection, and establishment of a protective environment. In October 2019, the UN Department of Peace Operations and Department of Operational Support issued a revised policy.
On November 12th, a workshop was held at IPI, bringing together representatives of the diplomatic community, including thematic experts and military and police advisors, UN Secretariat officials, members of the NGO community, and external researchers to explore ways POC has evolved and to determine which practices have been effective in carrying out POC. This meeting also addressed how UN POC policies compare with POC frameworks developed by specific countries and regional organizations.
This event was part of an international research project, “Implementing the POC Concept in UN Peacekeeping,” financed by the German Federal Ministry of Defence, and run by the Institute of Security and Global Affairs of the University of Leiden (ISGA), the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University (ISPK), and the Global Governance Institute (GGI). Composed of two sessions, the meeting took place under the Chatham House rule of non-attribution.
During the first session, experts discussed the new revisions to the UN POC policy. Speakers noted that there had been no radical shifts or sweeping departures in this revision from the 2015 policy, which established the three tiers of POC, including dialogue and engagement, the provision of physical protection, and the establishment of a protective environment. However, there were a few significant changes. These included putting greater emphasis on political strategies, beyond the use of force to protect civilians. The revised policy also further defined roles and responsibilities for all components of peace operations, including military, police and civilian personnel, and included clearer accountability provisions. The other change that was noted was a larger emphasis on civilian harm mitigation.
Participants highlighted the need to clarify what POC entails for the different components of peace operations, through clearer mandate language, and to allocate resources that will match expectations. They specifically examined the current role of UN police units in peacekeeping, which goes beyond physical protection, and encompasses investigations and capacity-building to develop the country’s rule of law and justice system. They also explored the role of civilian components in protection, ranging from the analysis of threats to early warning, casualty tracking, human rights monitoring, investigations and public reporting, and political engagement. Bridging military and political spheres, in particular, was seen as key in the comprehensive approach of POC. Intelligence capacities were also considered critical to collect information on threats and perpetrators, and building evidence to fight impunity.
Although the revised policy elevated the importance of accountability for the implementation of POC mandates, several participants underscored the persistent lack of an internal accountability and monitoring and evaluation system. At tactical levels, POC strategies are not always translated into concrete plans, and there are limited means to sanction inaction. Participants noted the need to improve the preparedness of peacekeepers and to ensure their readiness to protect civilians, including through specific criteria that should guide the selection of personnel.
In the meeting’s second session, discussants examined how member states can support POC. On the one hand, Security Council members, financial contributors, and troop- and police-contributing countries have a responsibility in making operations “fit” for the purpose of POC. This can be done through the provision of training and resources, and the adoption of the right “posture” and “commitment” in the field. On the other hand, member states can develop regional and national policy frameworks on POC.
Participants compared policy frameworks developed by the AU, NATO, and specific countries. It was noted that the African Union has guidelines on POC, and that all AU operations have a POC mandate, with the aim to ensure protection from its own operations and from third parties. Similarly to the UN, the AU doctrine of protection is based on a tiered approach, encompassing protection as part of the political process, protection from physical violence, the establishment of a protective environment, and rights-based protection. Participants mentioned the most recent developments and good practices to improve protection in the field, including the establishment of compliance and accountability frameworks, and civilian casualty tracking mechanisms.
It was noted as well that NATO has a policy for POC which was endorsed in 2016 by all its members. While NATO does not technically deploy peace operations as the UN does, experts said that the policy was drafted foreseeing times where NATO would deploy parallel missions and transition missions alongside the UN. While NATO has structural differences from the UN, NATO’s concept is based on a population-centric perspective of the crisis area, aiming at understanding the human environment. NATO also carries out POC through different thematic lenses: mitigating harm from NATO’s action and other perpetrators of violence, facilitating access to basic needs, and contributing to a safe and secure environment.
As another example, participants also examined the Swiss POC strategy, as Switzerland was the first country to have developed a national POC strategy in 2013, along with the Australian POC strategy. Building on lessons learned from different cases, discussants explored the many challenges and questions that should be considered by any country seeking to develop a national POC framework. One challenge is to define the scope of the protection strategy, its establishment as a defense or whole-of-government strategy, and its application to military operations, stabilization operations, or UN peace operations. Another issue to take into consideration is the use of the POC strategy as a working tool, a communication tool, for bilateral or multilateral engagement, and for policy or operational purposes. Speakers suggested the inclusion of specific POC action in diplomatic fora, beyond operational considerations for field operations.
Experts recognized that the development of national POC strategies is a nascent policy field, and that few countries have started to implement national policies on the subject. Several participants questioned how the UN, EU, NATO, AU, and national concepts should align, and recognized the lack of a common international concept of protection. They emphasized that there is no one-size-fits-all for POC national policies, but that it is important to establish clear lines of responsibility and authority. It is also vital, they said, to identify champions to serve as POC advocates in specific countries, and for the policies to engage many stakeholders of the government, legislative branches and civil society
Discussants raised points on what should be included in national protection strategies from a humanitarian standpoint. Necessary for an effective policy, they argued, were including protection for civilian property, understanding and including the work of humanitarian actors for protection, using clearer definitions of the term “civilian,” and creating action plans on counter-terrorism operations, as well as thinking about the impact of urban warfare, and the protection and dissemination of civilian data, particularly during cyber operations.
Namie Di Razza moderated the workshop and the second session, and Robin Shroeder moderated the first session.
Download the meeting agenda>>
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From left: Major General Francis Ofori, Commandant of KAIPTC; Mona Juul, Permanent Representative of Norway to the UN; Jean-Pierre Lacroix, Under Secretary General for UN Peacekeeping; Jake Sherman, Director of IPI’s Brian Urquhart Center for Peace Operations; Martha Pobee, Permanent Representative of Ghana to the UN; and Dame Karen Pierce, Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the UN
[/margin]From left: Major General Francis Ofori, Commandant of KAIPTC; Mona Juul, Permanent Representative of Norway to the UN; Jean-Pierre Lacroix, Under Secretary General for UN Peacekeeping; Jake Sherman, Director of IPI’s Brian Urquhart Center for Peace Operations; Martha Pobee, Permanent Representative of Ghana to the UN; and Dame Karen Pierce, Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the UN
The Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre (KAIPTC), in collaboration with the Permanent Missions of Ghana, the United Kingdom, and Norway, co-hosted a half-day conference on the theme “Peacekeeping in Africa: Fostering Partnership and Synergies.” IPI and Wilton Park were partners for the conference, which took place in the ECOSOC Chamber of United Nations Headquarters in New York on November 12th.
Director of IPI’s Brian Urquhart Center for Peace Operations, Jake Sherman, chaired and moderated the opening session with Dame Karen Pierce, Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the UN, Mona Juul, Permanent Representative of Norway to the UN, Martha Pobee, Permanent Representative of Ghana to the UN, Major General Francis Ofori, Commandant of KAIPTC, and Jean-Pierre Lacroix, Under-Secretary-General for UN Peacekeeping.
The conference focused on cooperation among partners in peacekeeping operations, as well as the shared commitment to address the challenges facing peacekeeping, focusing on the African Continent. Speakers presented policy recommendations in support of current peacekeeping challenges including: reinforcing UN-Africa peace and security partnerships, ensuring the long-term impact of peacekeeping missions, and increasing cooperation with African regional and sub-regional security frameworks.
The event brought together member states, the African Union, African Regional Economic Communities, think tanks, and other international partners.
Watch full event video here on UN Web TV>>
Dawud Ansari, who works at the Energy, Transportation, Environment Department department, has successfully defended his dissertation at the Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin.
The dissertation with the title "Numerical models for emerging energy and resource issues: Examples from tight oil, global energy, and rural electrification" was supervised by Prof. Dr. Klaus Eisenack (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin) and Prof. Dr. Franziska Holz (DIW Berlin).
We congratulate Dawud on his success and wish him all the best for his future career.
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IPI held a policy forum on November 7th on the evolution of the strategic partnership between the United Nations and the African Union, with a specific focus on how they undertake conflict prevention and crisis management efforts. Organized with the support of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the African Union Permanent Observer Mission to the United Nations, and the Training for Peace Programme, the forum also served to launch a research report on the subject produced jointly by IPI and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
Co-authored by IPI Policy Analyst Daniel Forti and ISS Researcher Priyal Singh, the report looks at the partnership at the member state level in the UN Security Council and AU Peace and Security Council, as well as at the operational level between various UN and AU entities. It also assesses the partnership across several thematic issues, including the AU’s Silencing the Guns initiative; mediation; women, peace, and security; electoral support; peacebuilding and post-conflict reconstruction and development, and youth, peace, and security. The report offers six recommendations for the UN, the AU and their member states to strengthen the partnership.
Bintou Keita, Assistant Secretary-General for Africa, UN Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations, identified the reasons why conflict keeps reemerging across Africa as “exclusion, marginalization, and discrimination” and said the most effective response was through partnerships. She noted approvingly that at the political and policy making level, the word that most recurred was “joint” as in “joint visit, joint communiques that is becoming more common.”
Jerry Matthews Matjila, the Permanent Representative of South Africa to the UN, and Odd-Inge Kvalheim, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Norway, made opening remarks, with Ambassador Kvalheim praising the report as “a valuable tool for understanding the relationship between the UN and AU to guide their efforts and also to point out where support from others is needed” and Ambassador Matjila talking about the October 2019 South African presidency of the Security Council during which the three African members of the Council (A3)—South Africa, Equatorial Guinea, and the Côte d’ Ivoire—acted in concert and coordination. “The A3 in 10 months had 13 common statements, you never had that before,” he said. “The A3 became like something you have to cross on African issues. Why? Because they were united.” Reflecting this assertiveness, South Africa hosted the 13th Joint Annual Consultative visit between the UN Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council during its Council presidency.
Underscoring the need for effective partnership between the UN and the AU, Mr. Forti noted that the report’s focus comes at a time “when conflict prevention is a priority for both organizations, but neither has the political, financial, and operational tools to prevent conflicts or manage crises on their own.” He said while the two councils are increasingly interdependent, they are defined by “an overriding tension” because their relationship is “fundamentally unequal in terms of powers, authority, resources, and political status.”
Describing the complementary strengths of the UN and AU in conflict prevention and crisis management, he said, “The AU often has more legitimacy to engage national actors, including governments, and can therefore access more political entry points to engage on a crisis before or when it emerges. With its global mandate for international peace and security and its diverse field presences, the UN has more operational and logistical capabilities and a larger, more predictable budget. These comparative advantages can color how day-to-day interactions unfold.”
Mr. Forti said these dynamics can also force the two institutions into what he called “a difficult balancing act. On the one hand, the UN may defer to the AU because of its push for political ownership and leadership while on the other hand, the AU may defer to the UN due to its greater resources, capacities, and in-country presences.”
Like the relationship between the two councils, the partnership between the UN Secretariat and AU Commission remains a “work in progress, but has grown considerably in recent years” Mr. Forti said. There are important formal mechanisms for engagements, but “in reality, the UN and AU depends just as much on day-to-day collaboration, both in headquarters and in the field.”
Mr. Singh highlighted three of the thematic areas that are priorities for the partnership. The AU’s Silencing the Guns initiative aims to end all wars by 2020, and has become a beacon for the two organizations in guiding their conflict prevention efforts. The two organizations work closely on the varied mediation efforts in Africa through a range of political and policy instruments. However, “the UN-AU partnership must account for the heterogeneous nature of the various political institutions involved in mediation, as well as these various mandates, capacities, and comparative advantages,” he said.
The women, peace and security (WPS) agenda is potentially another fruitful entry point for joint UN-AU action, but Mr. Singh counseled care in applying it properly. “While opportunities for more impactful UN-AU engagements on the WPS agenda are plentiful, the challenge again, however, is how well these engagements are coordinated and managed to ensure collective, coherent, strategies and responses to advance this critical agenda,” he said.
Fatima Kyari Mohammed, the AU’s Permanent Observer to the UN, commended the increasing UN-AU collaboration and the growing institutionalization of the partnership, but said there was still more to be done to put it into action effectively. “Implementation is what really matters,” she said. “Post-adoption is where the work starts.”
Elaborating on key points in the report, Ms. Mohammed said it was critical to ensure that cooperation proceeds in a “systematic, protocoled, predictable” manner, that council-to-council cooperation go beyond the annual meeting of the two bodies, and that joint analysis is followed up by joint action.
Citing the UN Charter’s Chapter VIII governing regional arrangements, she asked, “How can we strike a balance between the role of the Security Council in the maintenance of peace and security and the ability of the AU to develop its own capacity and take its own action? We have yet to find a clear answer.”
In closing remarks, Gustavo de Carvalho, Senior Researcher at the ISS, highlighted the importance to the African continent of multilateral institutions like the AU and the UN. “We are in a moment in which it is almost a cliché to say that multilateralism is at stake,” he said. “Many countries mention the idea of being small countries because together they can have more impact. This is why it is important to strengthen these two multilateral institutions.”
IPI Senior Fellow Sarah Taylor moderated the discussion.
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Just weeks after the committee named Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as the 2019 laureate IPI hosted Asle Toje, a member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, for a conversation about the prize.
Introducing Dr. Toje at the November 6th event, IPI Vice President Adam Lupel recalled that when he spoke at IPI for the first time last year, he said that “it is no exaggeration to say that the Nobel Peace Prize is the most prestigious prize in the world.” Mr. Lupel remarked, “It must also be added that to be on the committee is itself quite a prestigious honor.” Dr. Toje is the youngest member of the five person Norwegian Nobel Committee, which is chosen by the Norwegian parliament.
Dr. Toje began his remarks with a brief background of Alfred Nobel’s life and how he earned the considerable fortune that led him to write what Dr. Toje called “one of the world’s most famous wills and testaments,” therein instituting prizes in physics, physiology, chemistry, literature, and peace.
According to Dr. Nobel’s will, which both Dr. Lupel and Dr. Toje cited in their discussion, the prize for peace is to be awarded to “the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between the nations and the abolition or reduction of standing armies and the formation and spreading of peace congresses.”
Dr. Toje explained that since the first Nobel Peace Prize was awarded in 1901, there has been an ongoing debate about how to interpret the relatively brief and broadly general language in the criteria for the peace prize. While Alfred Nobel could not have conceived of the relevance of climate change or human rights in his lifetime, Dr. Toje explained that the Nobel Committee has adopted a “dynamic interpretation” to account for the importance of modern day issues.
The committee’s interpretation and application of Dr. Nobel’s will and testament is evident in the way that the selection of laureates has reflected contemporary priorities over the past century. Dr. Toje pointed out that after the first World War, the selection of winners centered around the League of Nations. Then, after World War II, “no issue was given more focus than nuclear disarmament.” More recently, the committee has focused on such issues as women’s rights, human rights, and climate change.
Regarding those who claim to have been nominated for the prize, Dr. Toje said that while the committee “will not speak against” such claims, the list of nominees remains confidential for 50 years, and the committee is bound to secrecy until lists are released. Still, he explained that every year, the committee receives questions from people claiming to have been nominated, asking if there is a diploma or a consolation prize. “Sadly,” Dr. Toje explained, “ we don’t we don’t give any runner-up medals.”
When asked about the relevance and diversity of the prize winners, Dr. Toje explained that the committee tries not to judge “different actors by different standards.” He elaborated, saying, “There is a tendency, at least in Europe, to be a bit cavalier about developments in Africa.” To Dr. Toje, this indicates that “we need to check development in Africa and in the Middle East,” where many of the world’s conflicts exist, and “if that means that we just have to really read up on the politics and the religious affairs of countries that we know little about before we start the process, so be it.”
Dr. Toje also addressed the relevance of international institutions in the future of promoting peace, admitting, “We’re facing a global challenge unlike anything we have seen in the past.” He believes that there is still a great deal of work to be done, and stated “I do believe that the United Nations will have a core role to play in this.” Though power balances and dynamics are shifting around the world, Dr. Toje pointed out that the UN has successfully overcome such challenges in the past and will continue to do so in the future. “I do believe that international institutions and multilateral cooperation is the path forward.”
Though much of the discussion focused on the history of the prize, Dr. Lupel asked Dr. Toje to place himself in the future, posing the question “When you look back on the Nobel Peace Prizes of this period, what do you hope to see?” Dr. Toje said he would hope that the Nobel Committee continues to “take its job seriously.” He continued, “We have this opportunity, once a year, to shine the light of global attention at one single issue, so we must choose carefully.”
In answering questions about the impact of the prize, Dr. Toje said the Nobel Peace Prize is always controversial. “There are always some people who feel that this laureate was the wrong one,” he admitted, highlighting that when Kailash Satyarthi was named a laureate in 2014, his award was not well-received within his own Brahmin community. Sharing further examples of controversial laureates, Dr. Toje remarked that Barack Obama’s award remains “deeply controversial,” and that while the selections of Nelson Mandela and Mother Teresa received criticism at the time, they are looked back on as “among sort of the stellar moments of the Nobel Peace Prize.”
However, Dr. Toje added, “Once the announcement has been made, we realize it lives its own life,” alluding to the intensity of public reactions. “If the Nobel Peace Prize didn’t spark outrage and strong emotions, well, we wouldn’t be living up to our reputation.”