Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

The Third Wave of Democratization's international dimension connects domestic democratization processes with the global spread of democracy after 1989. How has democracy promotion, a specific international source, contributed to the Wave of Democratization? And is scholarship well equipped to study the fundamental shifts in democracy promotion caused by the Third Wave of Autocratization? This article answers these questions from two perspectives. First, it assesses the relevance, patterns and effects of international democracy promotion between 1995 and 2024. Second, it takes a meta-perspective and identifies the main characteristics and blind spots of the study of international democracy promotion. Based on these insights, the article makes a conceptual contribution by distinguishing between democracy support and democracy protection. Furthermore, it defines the international scope conditions necessary for effectively promoting democracy during periods of autocratization. Finally, it proposes a new agenda for the study of international democracy promotion after the Third Wave of Democratization.

The Third Wave of Democratization's international dimension connects domestic democratization processes with the global spread of democracy after 1989. How has democracy promotion, a specific international source, contributed to the Wave of Democratization? And is scholarship well equipped to study the fundamental shifts in democracy promotion caused by the Third Wave of Autocratization? This article answers these questions from two perspectives. First, it assesses the relevance, patterns and effects of international democracy promotion between 1995 and 2024. Second, it takes a meta-perspective and identifies the main characteristics and blind spots of the study of international democracy promotion. Based on these insights, the article makes a conceptual contribution by distinguishing between democracy support and democracy protection. Furthermore, it defines the international scope conditions necessary for effectively promoting democracy during periods of autocratization. Finally, it proposes a new agenda for the study of international democracy promotion after the Third Wave of Democratization.

The Third Wave of Democratization's international dimension connects domestic democratization processes with the global spread of democracy after 1989. How has democracy promotion, a specific international source, contributed to the Wave of Democratization? And is scholarship well equipped to study the fundamental shifts in democracy promotion caused by the Third Wave of Autocratization? This article answers these questions from two perspectives. First, it assesses the relevance, patterns and effects of international democracy promotion between 1995 and 2024. Second, it takes a meta-perspective and identifies the main characteristics and blind spots of the study of international democracy promotion. Based on these insights, the article makes a conceptual contribution by distinguishing between democracy support and democracy protection. Furthermore, it defines the international scope conditions necessary for effectively promoting democracy during periods of autocratization. Finally, it proposes a new agenda for the study of international democracy promotion after the Third Wave of Democratization.

Heute spricht 'fossilfrei' Host Wolf-Peter Schill mit Brigitte Knopf, Gründerin von Zukunft KlimaSozial, über die kürzlich vorgelegten Eckpunkte zum Gebäudemodernisierungsgesetz (formerly known as Gebäudeenergiegesetz) und die vermeintliche neue Freiheit im Heizkeller. Müssen Eigenheimbesitzer*innen ...

Jugendliche vor Social-Media-Gefahren zu schützen, ist richtig. Doch sie auszusperren, ist Symbolpolitik. Europa muss endlich spürbare Plattformregulierung durchsetzen., Die Forderung nach einem Social-Media-Verbot für Kinder und Jugendliche bis zum Alter von 16 Jahren klingt erst einmal nach gesundem Menschenverstand. Wer würde nicht zustimmen, wenn es um Schutz vor Cybermobbing, sexualisierten Inhalten oder exzessiver Nutzung geht? Jedoch werden soziale Medien ...

Accelerating net-zero transitions requires deliberate governance. We examine the deliberate acceleration of net-zero transitions through a case study of California’s governance of private vehicle electrification. Our analysis integrates the literatures on policy mixes and political institutions to offer a novel explanation for how California has effectively expedited its net-zero transition to electric cars. We base our inductive analysis on evidence from 47 expert interviews conducted in 2022–23. We argue that California’s systemic acceleration capacity has two core components: first, an effective policy mix that harnesses the accelerating forces of creative destruction, and second, specific path-dependent political institutions that have enabled this respective policy mix. Together, these two components have contributed to California’s state capacity to accelerate its technology substitution pathway away from internal combustion engines. California’s climate technocracy offers critical lessons for other jurisdictions seeking to speed up similar net-zero transitions.

Accelerating net-zero transitions requires deliberate governance. We examine the deliberate acceleration of net-zero transitions through a case study of California’s governance of private vehicle electrification. Our analysis integrates the literatures on policy mixes and political institutions to offer a novel explanation for how California has effectively expedited its net-zero transition to electric cars. We base our inductive analysis on evidence from 47 expert interviews conducted in 2022–23. We argue that California’s systemic acceleration capacity has two core components: first, an effective policy mix that harnesses the accelerating forces of creative destruction, and second, specific path-dependent political institutions that have enabled this respective policy mix. Together, these two components have contributed to California’s state capacity to accelerate its technology substitution pathway away from internal combustion engines. California’s climate technocracy offers critical lessons for other jurisdictions seeking to speed up similar net-zero transitions.

Accelerating net-zero transitions requires deliberate governance. We examine the deliberate acceleration of net-zero transitions through a case study of California’s governance of private vehicle electrification. Our analysis integrates the literatures on policy mixes and political institutions to offer a novel explanation for how California has effectively expedited its net-zero transition to electric cars. We base our inductive analysis on evidence from 47 expert interviews conducted in 2022–23. We argue that California’s systemic acceleration capacity has two core components: first, an effective policy mix that harnesses the accelerating forces of creative destruction, and second, specific path-dependent political institutions that have enabled this respective policy mix. Together, these two components have contributed to California’s state capacity to accelerate its technology substitution pathway away from internal combustion engines. California’s climate technocracy offers critical lessons for other jurisdictions seeking to speed up similar net-zero transitions.

The Postgraduate Programme for Sustainability Cooperation (PGP) at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS, formerly DIE) has been training young professionals for German and European international cooperation since 1965. How successful is the programme in supporting its graduates in starting their career and in developing their competencies? And what direction should Germany take in future in its training for professionals in the field of international cooperation? To mark its 60th anniversary, IDOS conducted a tracer study to systematically analyse how the programme has benefited its some 1,000 graduates and to find some pointers on how it could be developed further.
The study very clearly demonstrates the relevance of the postgraduate programme and identification with the programme over the past 60 years. The feedback confirms that the PGP considerably benefits participants’ professional and personal development and that they would definitely recommend it for future generations.
At the same time, the world is undergoing a period of radical upheaval. Fundamental changes can be seen above all in the general conditions for partnerships, the demands made of staff working in this sector and training for future experts and managers. Training programmes such as the PGP must adapt to address these drastic changes. The quality of a training programme is ultimately reflected in how well it promotes basic competencies that will still be 
useful under different conditions and that can help shape these changes. 
IDOS graduates were also asked about their views on changes in working in the international cooperation sector. The survey thus allows conclusions to be drawn on how training can be developed further:
1. Training should promote various competencies that can shape cooperation for sustainable development. Taking a partner-oriented approach to initiating and implementing changes in an increasingly complex world requires both specialist and systemic knowledge along with personal, social, networking and cooperation skills.
2. Training institutions should promote the capacity for cooperation through joint learning with international partners. This will foster understanding for other perspectives and will support the ongoing development of partnerships.
3. Post-colonial perspectives and a critical examination of power should already be taken into account during training and should be put into practice in concrete cooperation between organisations. IDOS graduates also believe that these aspects are becoming more important in international cooperation.

The Postgraduate Programme for Sustainability Cooperation (PGP) at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS, formerly DIE) has been training young professionals for German and European international cooperation since 1965. How successful is the programme in supporting its graduates in starting their career and in developing their competencies? And what direction should Germany take in future in its training for professionals in the field of international cooperation? To mark its 60th anniversary, IDOS conducted a tracer study to systematically analyse how the programme has benefited its some 1,000 graduates and to find some pointers on how it could be developed further.
The study very clearly demonstrates the relevance of the postgraduate programme and identification with the programme over the past 60 years. The feedback confirms that the PGP considerably benefits participants’ professional and personal development and that they would definitely recommend it for future generations.
At the same time, the world is undergoing a period of radical upheaval. Fundamental changes can be seen above all in the general conditions for partnerships, the demands made of staff working in this sector and training for future experts and managers. Training programmes such as the PGP must adapt to address these drastic changes. The quality of a training programme is ultimately reflected in how well it promotes basic competencies that will still be 
useful under different conditions and that can help shape these changes. 
IDOS graduates were also asked about their views on changes in working in the international cooperation sector. The survey thus allows conclusions to be drawn on how training can be developed further:
1. Training should promote various competencies that can shape cooperation for sustainable development. Taking a partner-oriented approach to initiating and implementing changes in an increasingly complex world requires both specialist and systemic knowledge along with personal, social, networking and cooperation skills.
2. Training institutions should promote the capacity for cooperation through joint learning with international partners. This will foster understanding for other perspectives and will support the ongoing development of partnerships.
3. Post-colonial perspectives and a critical examination of power should already be taken into account during training and should be put into practice in concrete cooperation between organisations. IDOS graduates also believe that these aspects are becoming more important in international cooperation.

The Postgraduate Programme for Sustainability Cooperation (PGP) at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS, formerly DIE) has been training young professionals for German and European international cooperation since 1965. How successful is the programme in supporting its graduates in starting their career and in developing their competencies? And what direction should Germany take in future in its training for professionals in the field of international cooperation? To mark its 60th anniversary, IDOS conducted a tracer study to systematically analyse how the programme has benefited its some 1,000 graduates and to find some pointers on how it could be developed further.
The study very clearly demonstrates the relevance of the postgraduate programme and identification with the programme over the past 60 years. The feedback confirms that the PGP considerably benefits participants’ professional and personal development and that they would definitely recommend it for future generations.
At the same time, the world is undergoing a period of radical upheaval. Fundamental changes can be seen above all in the general conditions for partnerships, the demands made of staff working in this sector and training for future experts and managers. Training programmes such as the PGP must adapt to address these drastic changes. The quality of a training programme is ultimately reflected in how well it promotes basic competencies that will still be 
useful under different conditions and that can help shape these changes. 
IDOS graduates were also asked about their views on changes in working in the international cooperation sector. The survey thus allows conclusions to be drawn on how training can be developed further:
1. Training should promote various competencies that can shape cooperation for sustainable development. Taking a partner-oriented approach to initiating and implementing changes in an increasingly complex world requires both specialist and systemic knowledge along with personal, social, networking and cooperation skills.
2. Training institutions should promote the capacity for cooperation through joint learning with international partners. This will foster understanding for other perspectives and will support the ongoing development of partnerships.
3. Post-colonial perspectives and a critical examination of power should already be taken into account during training and should be put into practice in concrete cooperation between organisations. IDOS graduates also believe that these aspects are becoming more important in international cooperation.

Das Postgraduate Programme for Sustainability Cooperation (PGP) des German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS, vormals DIE) bildet seit 1965 Nachwuchs für die deutsche und europäische internationale Zusammenarbeit aus. Wie erfolgreich ist das Programm in der Förderung des Berufseinstiegs und der Kompetenzen seiner Absolvent:innen? Und wie sollte sich die deutsche Ausbildung für internationale Kooperation weiterentwickeln? Anlässlich seines 60-jährigen Jubiläums führte das IDOS eine Verbleibstudie durch, um systematisch den Nutzen des Programms für die rund 1000 Absolvent:innen zu analysieren und Anregungen für seine Weiterentwicklung zu erhalten. 
Die Studie belegt eindrucksvoll die Relevanz des Postgraduierten-Programms und die Identifikation mit ihm über die letzten 60 Jahre hinweg. Dem Programm wird ein hoher Nutzen für die berufliche und persönliche Entwicklung attestiert, und es wird nachfolgenden Generationen klar weiterempfohlen. 
Zugleich befindet sich die Welt in einem Epochenumbruch. Grundlegend ändern sich v. a. die Rahmenbedingungen für Kooperationen, die Anforderungen an Personal im Berufsfeld und die Ausbildung von zukünftigen Fach- und Führungskräften. Ausbildungsprogramme wie auch das PGP müssen sich auf diese drastischen Veränderungen einstellen. Letztlich zeigt sich die Qualität eines Ausbildungsprogramms auch daran, wie gut es grundlegende Kompetenzen fördert, die noch unter veränderten Bedingungen nützlich sind und die helfen, diese Veränderungen mitzugestalten.
Die IDOS-Absolvent:innen wurden auch nach ihren Perspektiven auf Veränderungen im Berufsfeld internationale Zusammenarbeit befragt. Damit ermöglicht es die Befragung, Schlussfolgerungen zur Weiterentwicklung der Ausbildung zu ziehen: 
1. Die Aus- und Fortbildung sollte verschiedene Kompetenzen fördern, die eine Kooperation für nachhaltige Entwicklung gestalten können. Damit in einer zunehmend komplexer werdenden Welt Veränderungen partnerorientiert angestoßen und umgesetzt werden, sind sowohl fachliches und systemisches Wissen wie auch persönliche, soziale, Netzwerk- und Kooperationskompetenzen erforderlich. 
2. Institutionen in der Aus- und Weiterbildung sollten Kooperationskompetenzen durch gemeinsames Lernen mit internationalen Partnern stärken. Dies fördert das Verständnis für jeweils andere Perspektiven und unterstützt die Weiterentwicklung von Partnerschaften.
3. Schon in der Ausbildung sollten postkoloniale und machtkritische Perspektiven berücksichtigt und in der konkreten Zusammenarbeit zwischen Organisationen gelebt werden. Diese Aspekte gewinnen auch nach Einschätzung der IDOS-Absolvent:innen in der internationalen Zusammenarbeit an Bedeutung. 

 

Das Postgraduate Programme for Sustainability Cooperation (PGP) des German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS, vormals DIE) bildet seit 1965 Nachwuchs für die deutsche und europäische internationale Zusammenarbeit aus. Wie erfolgreich ist das Programm in der Förderung des Berufseinstiegs und der Kompetenzen seiner Absolvent:innen? Und wie sollte sich die deutsche Ausbildung für internationale Kooperation weiterentwickeln? Anlässlich seines 60-jährigen Jubiläums führte das IDOS eine Verbleibstudie durch, um systematisch den Nutzen des Programms für die rund 1000 Absolvent:innen zu analysieren und Anregungen für seine Weiterentwicklung zu erhalten. 
Die Studie belegt eindrucksvoll die Relevanz des Postgraduierten-Programms und die Identifikation mit ihm über die letzten 60 Jahre hinweg. Dem Programm wird ein hoher Nutzen für die berufliche und persönliche Entwicklung attestiert, und es wird nachfolgenden Generationen klar weiterempfohlen. 
Zugleich befindet sich die Welt in einem Epochenumbruch. Grundlegend ändern sich v. a. die Rahmenbedingungen für Kooperationen, die Anforderungen an Personal im Berufsfeld und die Ausbildung von zukünftigen Fach- und Führungskräften. Ausbildungsprogramme wie auch das PGP müssen sich auf diese drastischen Veränderungen einstellen. Letztlich zeigt sich die Qualität eines Ausbildungsprogramms auch daran, wie gut es grundlegende Kompetenzen fördert, die noch unter veränderten Bedingungen nützlich sind und die helfen, diese Veränderungen mitzugestalten.
Die IDOS-Absolvent:innen wurden auch nach ihren Perspektiven auf Veränderungen im Berufsfeld internationale Zusammenarbeit befragt. Damit ermöglicht es die Befragung, Schlussfolgerungen zur Weiterentwicklung der Ausbildung zu ziehen: 
1. Die Aus- und Fortbildung sollte verschiedene Kompetenzen fördern, die eine Kooperation für nachhaltige Entwicklung gestalten können. Damit in einer zunehmend komplexer werdenden Welt Veränderungen partnerorientiert angestoßen und umgesetzt werden, sind sowohl fachliches und systemisches Wissen wie auch persönliche, soziale, Netzwerk- und Kooperationskompetenzen erforderlich. 
2. Institutionen in der Aus- und Weiterbildung sollten Kooperationskompetenzen durch gemeinsames Lernen mit internationalen Partnern stärken. Dies fördert das Verständnis für jeweils andere Perspektiven und unterstützt die Weiterentwicklung von Partnerschaften.
3. Schon in der Ausbildung sollten postkoloniale und machtkritische Perspektiven berücksichtigt und in der konkreten Zusammenarbeit zwischen Organisationen gelebt werden. Diese Aspekte gewinnen auch nach Einschätzung der IDOS-Absolvent:innen in der internationalen Zusammenarbeit an Bedeutung. 

 

Das Postgraduate Programme for Sustainability Cooperation (PGP) des German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS, vormals DIE) bildet seit 1965 Nachwuchs für die deutsche und europäische internationale Zusammenarbeit aus. Wie erfolgreich ist das Programm in der Förderung des Berufseinstiegs und der Kompetenzen seiner Absolvent:innen? Und wie sollte sich die deutsche Ausbildung für internationale Kooperation weiterentwickeln? Anlässlich seines 60-jährigen Jubiläums führte das IDOS eine Verbleibstudie durch, um systematisch den Nutzen des Programms für die rund 1000 Absolvent:innen zu analysieren und Anregungen für seine Weiterentwicklung zu erhalten. 
Die Studie belegt eindrucksvoll die Relevanz des Postgraduierten-Programms und die Identifikation mit ihm über die letzten 60 Jahre hinweg. Dem Programm wird ein hoher Nutzen für die berufliche und persönliche Entwicklung attestiert, und es wird nachfolgenden Generationen klar weiterempfohlen. 
Zugleich befindet sich die Welt in einem Epochenumbruch. Grundlegend ändern sich v. a. die Rahmenbedingungen für Kooperationen, die Anforderungen an Personal im Berufsfeld und die Ausbildung von zukünftigen Fach- und Führungskräften. Ausbildungsprogramme wie auch das PGP müssen sich auf diese drastischen Veränderungen einstellen. Letztlich zeigt sich die Qualität eines Ausbildungsprogramms auch daran, wie gut es grundlegende Kompetenzen fördert, die noch unter veränderten Bedingungen nützlich sind und die helfen, diese Veränderungen mitzugestalten.
Die IDOS-Absolvent:innen wurden auch nach ihren Perspektiven auf Veränderungen im Berufsfeld internationale Zusammenarbeit befragt. Damit ermöglicht es die Befragung, Schlussfolgerungen zur Weiterentwicklung der Ausbildung zu ziehen: 
1. Die Aus- und Fortbildung sollte verschiedene Kompetenzen fördern, die eine Kooperation für nachhaltige Entwicklung gestalten können. Damit in einer zunehmend komplexer werdenden Welt Veränderungen partnerorientiert angestoßen und umgesetzt werden, sind sowohl fachliches und systemisches Wissen wie auch persönliche, soziale, Netzwerk- und Kooperationskompetenzen erforderlich. 
2. Institutionen in der Aus- und Weiterbildung sollten Kooperationskompetenzen durch gemeinsames Lernen mit internationalen Partnern stärken. Dies fördert das Verständnis für jeweils andere Perspektiven und unterstützt die Weiterentwicklung von Partnerschaften.
3. Schon in der Ausbildung sollten postkoloniale und machtkritische Perspektiven berücksichtigt und in der konkreten Zusammenarbeit zwischen Organisationen gelebt werden. Diese Aspekte gewinnen auch nach Einschätzung der IDOS-Absolvent:innen in der internationalen Zusammenarbeit an Bedeutung. 

 

Faced with high borrowing costs, African leaders and the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) have selected Mauritius to host a continental credit rating agency to reduce dependence on the “Big Three” and counter perceived bias. But will investors trust it?

Faced with high borrowing costs, African leaders and the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) have selected Mauritius to host a continental credit rating agency to reduce dependence on the “Big Three” and counter perceived bias. But will investors trust it?

Faced with high borrowing costs, African leaders and the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) have selected Mauritius to host a continental credit rating agency to reduce dependence on the “Big Three” and counter perceived bias. But will investors trust it?

US-Präsident Donald Trump hat Heimatschutzministerin Kristi Noem in ein neues Amt versetzt. Ihren bisherigen Posten wird US-Senator Markwayne Mullin übernehmen.

Am vergangenen. Mittwoch ereignete sich ein weiterer Fenstersturz in Berlin-Neukölln. Ein Kleinkind fiel aus dem dritten Stock eines Wohnhauses und wurde schwer verletzt ins Klinikum gebracht. Die Polizei untersucht den Vorfall.

Ino Afentouli, Senior Policy Advisor; Head of the Geopolitics and Diplomacy Observatory, ELIAMEP

Barring those directly threatened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and despite the vast financial and military support their countries have provided, the peoples of the EU never felt that this war was “theirs”. And yet, this was the first military conflict in the heart of the continent since the end of World War II. This repression of the threat of war is largely due to the culture of peace that has been cultivated in Europe over the last eight decades—a culture encapsulated in the phrase “Never Again”. It is also the result of the institutional framework designed to ensure that disputes between European nations are resolved peacefully. Today, the nations of Europe find themselves confronted by a second war; though it is not being fought on their own soil, it poses an equally grave threat to their security.

In both the Ukrainian and the Iranian contexts, the nations of Europe are contending with the fallout from conflicts they neither chose nor planned, and over whose trajectory they lack meaningful control. Nonetheless, these are conflicts that will inevitably impact both the peoples and institutions of Europe. In other words, the present juncture is reminiscent of the summer of 1914, when our continent sleepwalked into the First World War. Now, as then, Europe remains unprepared.

The conflict with Iran, to which Greece and Cyprus are the closest European nations, will be protracted and is already escalating into a broader regional struggle. If Turkey, Syria and Lebanon should get involved, whether directly or indirectly, the consequences for us will be dire. The pre-emptive deployment of Greek forces to Cyprus underscores this reality. Even if the institutions to which we belong, the European Union and NATO, were to trigger their collective defence mechanisms, it would signify that our nations are facing a peril of the highest order. Regrettably, should this worst-case scenario materialize, we will be faced with a second European war, this time with the Eastern Mediterranean at its epicentre.

Triantafyllos Karatrantos, Research Associate, ELIAMEP

The ever-evolving regional security environment in the Middle East

The US-Israeli military conflict with Iran is another—and likely the most important critical—chapter in an ongoing reconfiguring of the Middle East’s security architecture and alliances. The process began after the terrorist attack launched against Israel on 7 October 2023 and the rapid succession of military and geopolitical events that followed it. Since October 2023, we have seen the systematic curtailing of Iran’s power, primarily by Israel. Initially through the weakening or overthrow—as in the case of the Assad regime—of the members of the infamous “Axis of Resistance”, the network which had effectively established Iran as a dominant regional actor. The region has changed radically in the period since the initial attacks: the Assad regime has fallen in Syria; Hezbollah, Hamas and various Shiite militias and paramilitary forces that acted as hybrid proxies for Iran have sustained crippling losses; and the Houthis have seen their influence severely diminished.

Iran had previously exploited the power vacuum created by Washington’s substantial disengagement from the region after 2011. This dynamic has now shifted so fundamentally that Tehran has not only lost its regional power; its theocratic regime is currently fighting for its survival.

Furthermore, Iran’s targeting of neighbouring states has failed to drive a wedge between them and the United States; instead, these provocations have pushed countries like Saudi Arabia into adopting a formal stance against Iran.

Israel has emerged with bolstered regional power and influence, appearing ready to resume the momentum of the Abraham Accords, which had stalled in the aftermath of the October 7 attack. However, it remains to be seen how Israel’s relations with the Arab nations will develop from here—most notably with Saudi Arabia, with which a landmark normalization deal was imminent prior to the conflict. Riyadh, alongside other Gulf countries like Qatar, has also seen its regional standing strengthened.

Nevertheless, the regional picture remains complex. Israel’s fraught relationship with Syria and Turkey—the latter of which also seems to be losing some of its previously amassed regional influence—must be taken into account.

Ultimately, the discourse surrounding a new security architecture cannot be finalized without considering the ultimate fate of the Iranian regime and the broader post-conflict landscape for the country. While the threat from Iran’s missile arsenal and proxies could be reduced, and its nuclear ambitions thwarted, we may see growing extremism, or even the emergence of new—or the evolution of existing—Shiite Islamist militant organizations.

Ultimately, the US has made a dynamic return to the Middle East and it remains to be seen how its rivalry with China and Russia will evolve within the region’s new geopolitical context, while it has become increasingly clear that the European Union must now develop its own distinct geopolitical footprint in the region.

Pantelis Ikonomou, Former Inspector, International Atomic Energy Agency; Research Associate, ELIAMEP

The reality about Iran’s nuclear weapons and the war

A list of the factual drivers, not a justification(!), of the actors involved in the Iranian crisis:

• It is widely held that “the capability to acquire nuclear weapons carries as much strategic weight as their actual possession” (for a historical analysis, see my book Global Nuclear Threat, [2019, in Greek], in which the above serves as an epigraph).
• Tehran utilizing its Possible Nuclear Military Capability since 2013 as strategic leverage to advance its international agenda.
• The landmark diplomatic agreement of 2015: the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) placed Iran’s nuclear programme under stringent international oversight.
• The implementation of the JCPOA, which widened Iran’s breakout window (the time required to acquire the amount of fissile material required to build a nuclear bomb) from two to ten months, effectively containing the situation,
• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu adamantly declaring since 2013 that “no deal will be a good deal”.
• US President Trump’s unilaterally withdrawing the US from the JCPOA in 2018 and reinstating sanctions against Iran. This counter-intuitive decision effectively reduced Iran’s breakout window back to a mere two months.
• Tehran ceasing to comply with the terms of the JCPOA in 2019/2020, following a series of targeted assassinations of Iranian politicians, military officers and scientists. Iran obstructing and ultimately barring International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors from conducting meaningful oversight of its nuclear programme since then.
• The absence of a credible guarantee since then that Iran is not weaponizing its nuclear programme. Logically, however, had Iran already developed a nuclear capacity, it would have announced it to deter attacks against its territory.
• Israel’s status as an undeclared nuclear-armed state. As it is not a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), it is under no obligation to submit to international inspections. Nevertheless, this status affords Israel a decisive strategic edge and underpins its geopolitical standing in the region.
• A fundamental divergence in the objectives of the parties involved in the escalating conflict: For Iran, the goal is to annihilate Israel. For Israel, it is to dismantle the Iranian state. However, for the US, the ultimate goal remains ill-defined. It is likely linked to Trump’s mercurial temperament and narcissistic need to perform on the world stage.
• Trump’s irrational withdrawal from the JCPOA, followed by the impulsive decision to join the Israeli attack on Iran in June 2025—against the explicit counsel of his own national security advisers—points towards an absolute, if unexplained, subservience to Israeli interests. Historically, no American president (Obama, Bush Jr, or Biden) has ever sided with Israel in a war against Iran.
• The historical root cause of the crisis: the pogroms perpetrated by Christian Tsarist Russia in 1881-1906 against 2.5 million Jews; the anti-Semitic campaigns of Stalin’s Soviet Union after World War II; and, finally, the Holocaust in which six million Jews were killed by Hitler’s—likewise Christian—Germany. These events led the global powers, acting through the UN in 1948, to establish a state of a few million Jews in Palestine—a state surrounded by a few hundred million Muslims.
• A pervasive indifference to the existential fallout currently confronting not only world Jewry and the Palestinians of that land, but the entire planet.
• A personal observation from a natural sciences perspective: the tendency towards chaos and disorder, which is the defining characteristic of universal entropy. In this shared journey, power imbalances are driving the collapse of hegemonies and the emergence of unpredictable multipolar shifts. We may also be experiencing the twilight of the American West. Unfortunately, the consequences remain impossible to foresee.