- The Middle East is on European Union’s security agenda, not yet in its new strategy. On 28 September 2026, the High Representative grouped Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb and the Black Sea as “critical maritime choke points”; the EEAS scoping paper of March 2026 on the new strategy named no southern region.
- European exposure to the region is direct. Migration, organised crime, energy and connectivity tie European economies and domestic politics to the region.
- Europe is present across the region but codifies downwards and ex post. Its missions and frameworks each draw their own map of the region, and southern shocks are answered with what 27 governments can agree upon. Over Hormuz, the EU produced sanctions and an energy letter; the naval response came from a coalition outside the EU.C
- European divergences make improvisation costly. ASPIDES has relied on a handful of contributors, and past naval operations saw member states suspend or withdraw their participation; the response must be agreed in advance.
- The two theatres are one contest, and the method allowing earlier action already exists. A strategy that files the South under energy costs and migration weakens its own eastern priority. The integrated approach, defined by the Council in 2018, prescribes regional and preventive action; the EU should apply it to the Middle East.
- Five recommendations for the strategy. Name the Middle East and the Gulf as the southern dimension of the eastern priority. Set regional objectives to 2030 and place the existing frameworks under them. Make anticipation a principle and give every task its means. Operationalise Article 44 TEU so that willing member states act inside the EU framework rather than beside it. Make solidarity and partnership direction-neutral, from the Emergency Security Protocol and EU-NATO cooperation to a standing EU-GCC security mechanism, to be launched at the rescheduled EU-GCC summit.
Read here in pdf the Policy paper by Andreas C. Hatzidiakos, Research Fellow, ELIAMEP and Constantine Capsaskis, Research Fellow, ELIAMEP.