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Pour Jean Arthuis (UDI), président de la commission des budgets du Parlement européen, l’annulation d’une partie de la dette grecque est inévitable. Celui qui fut le ministre des finances français (95-97) qui a négocié le Pacte de stabilité, analyse, pour Libération, une crise grecque qui n’en finit pas.

Pourquoi les négociations avec la Grèce s’éternisent-elles ?

Il faut bien comprendre que, quel qu’ait été le gouvernement issu des élections du 25 janvier, la négociation actuelle aurait eu lieu : si la Grèce veut toucher les 7,2 milliards d’euros promis par la zone euro et le Fonds monétaire international, elle doit s’engager à mener davantage de réformes. La précédente majorité dirigée par le conservateur Antonis Samaras avait d’ailleurs échoué à se mettre d’accord avec ses créanciers et c’est en partie à cause de cet échec que des élections législatives anticipées ont été organisées. Or, le gouvernement d’Alexis Tsipras persiste à refuser une partie des réformes demandées, les plus douloureuses, parce qu’il veut appliquer le programme sur lequel il a été élu. Le problème est qu’il n’en a absolument pas les moyens : il doit comprendre que ce n’est pas aux Européens de financer les dépenses publiques de l’État grec en lui prêtant de l’argent sans limites et sans condition. Ainsi, ramener la retraite à 60 ans alors que son système est déjà déficitaire, c’est faire financer la retraite des Grecs par les autres citoyens européens qui, eux, doivent parfois travailler jusqu’à 67 ans et plus. C’est évidemment inacceptable ! Surtout, Tsipras doit réaliser que ces réformes ne sont pas exigées pour punir ou humilier la Grèce, comme on l’entend parfois : il s’agit de remettre le pays durablement sur les rails de la croissance. À ce moment-là, il retrouvera des marges de manœuvre budgétaires qui lui permettront de faire davantage pour son peuple. Le Premier ministre grec commence à réaliser qu’il va devoir en passer par là. Mais ce processus est laborieux et c’est dangereux pour l’ensemble de la zone euro.

Certains affirment que c’est la zone euro qui est responsable des problèmes grecs.

Il n’y a aucun acharnement malveillant dans ce qui se passe : il faut, zone euro ou pas, que le budget grec soit à l’équilibre puisque les marchés refusent de lui prêter de l’argent. On qualifie cette politique d’austéritaire, mais ça n’a aucun sens. Quand une entreprise est proche de la faillite, on prend des mesures de redressement, notamment en coupant dans ses dépenses et ses effectifs... La conséquence de cet ajustement a certes été une baisse de près de 30 % de son PIB qui est revenu à son niveau du début des années 2000. Mais la période 2001-2008 a été une bulle : l’État a financé à crédit des augmentations de salaire, des embauches de fonctionnaires, des travaux publics, etc.. Si la Grèce était restée hors de la zone euro, elle n’aurait simplement pas connu cette bulle et son PIB ne serait pas plus élevé qu’il ne l’est aujourd’hui. Et il faut bien avoir conscience que si la Grèce sortait maintenant de l’euro, elle connaitrait le sort que connaît l’Argentine depuis 2002, lors de la rupture de la parité fixe entre le dollar et le peso et du défaut qui a suivi, sans les matières premières et les capacités exportatrices de ce pays…

Comment se sortir de cet imbroglio grec ?

La réalité est en train de s’imposer au gouvernement Tsipras. Les citoyens grecs ont arrêté de payer leurs impôts fonciers, car Syriza avait imprudemment promis qu’il allait les abroger, les comptes publics se sont dégradés au point que le gouvernement aura du mal à maintenir l’équilibre primaire (hors charge de la dette), la fuite des capitaux prend des proportions inquiétantes et la croissance économique qui devait atteindre 2,4 % en 2015 est désormais proche de zéro. Ma conviction est qu’on va finir par trouver un accord. Il faut y arriver parce que si les Grecs en sont là, c’est aussi en partie de notre faute.

Pourquoi ?

Les Européens ont été irresponsables d’admettre ce pays dans la monnaie unique en 2001 essentiellement parce qu’on ne pouvait pas claquer la porte de la zone euro au nez de Platon ! Cela a été une faute politique majeure alors que tout le monde savait que la Grèce n’était pas un État fonctionnel et qu’elle mentait sur l’état réel de ses comptes publics. Une fois admise, on aurait pu au moins la surveiller comme on surveille le lait sur le feu, ce qu’on n’a pas fait au nom du respect de la souveraineté nationale. Cet aveuglement s’explique en partie par le fait que les pays européens, et notamment la France et l’Allemagne, y trouvaient leurs comptes : ils exportaient massivement vers la Grèce sans se préoccuper de savoir comment ces dépenses figureraient dans ses comptes publics. Si elle était surendettée, ce qui l’a conduit au défaut de paiement, c’est parce qu’en face il y avait des surcréanciers… On n’a alors pas eu d’autre choix que d’aider la Grèce, à la fois pour éviter des effets systémiques sur le reste de la zone euro, mais aussi pour que les créanciers privés (banques, assurances, entreprises) ne se retrouvent pas seuls à gérer un défaut de paiement. On a en fait transféré le mistigri des banques aux États.

La Grèce remboursera-t-elle sa dette ?

Il faut être réaliste. D’ici 2023, date à partir de laquelle la Grèce est censée commencer à rembourser les intérêts de sa dette vis-à-vis du Mécanisme européen de stabilité et des États de la zone euro, ses créanciers auront déjà inscrit en perte leur créance sur la Grèce. Il ne faut pas se faire d’illusion sur la capacité qu’auront les Grecs - et d’autres pays d’ailleurs -à rembourser leurs dettes. Ce qui est en train de se passer est une restructuration implicite.

Personne ne le reconnaît pour l’instant…

Car il faut garder un moyen de pression sur la Grèce ! Elle doit assumer ses responsabilités et moderniser son Etat afin d’éviter de répéter les erreurs du passé. A cet égard, les membres de la zone euro doivent aussi tirer les leçons de la crise. Le pacte de stabilité et de croissance n’est pas une politique, il n’est qu’un règlement de copropriété. C’est dire l’urgence d’un véritable gouvernement économique et financier, dirigé par un président à temps plein, disponible et non suspect de conflits d’intérêts, prenant appui sur un véritable Trésor européen, dans l’attente d’un budget et d’une chambre de la zone euro. Cet embryon de fédéralisme européen implique, bien sûr, que l’on révise les traités.

N.B.: English version

N.B.: entretien paru dans Libération du 11 mai

Bombers and ISR (Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance) aircraft head towards the Pacific.

It looks like the U.S. Air Force is planning to deploy some strategic bombers and surveillance aircraft in Australia to put some pressure on China amid South China Sea tensions.

The South China Sea is the subject of several territorial claims. China claims sovereignty on some island chains and  waters that are within the 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zone of Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam

This year, China has started building an airstrip on the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea  waters claimed by the Philippines.

According to FP, the Defense Department’s Assistant Secretary for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs David Shear, during testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on May 13, said that along with moving U.S. Marines and Army units around the region, the Pentagon will deploy air assets in Australia, “including B-1 bombers and surveillance aircraft.”

The U.S. Air Force ISR aircraft, possibly unmanned Global Hawk drones, will monitor activities around the disputed islands, whereas the “Bone” heavy bombers will serve as a deterrent to challenge Beijing aggressive ownership claims.

U.S. strategic bombers have already been temporarily deployed to Australia, to take part in exercises with the Royal Australian Air Force, in 2012 and at the end of 2014 as a consequence of a joint Force Posture Initiative signed in 2011 to train together to face threats in the Pacific.

Actually, U.S. aircraft don’t really need to deploy to Australia to put pressure on China: Air Force Global Strike Command’s bombers, including B-52s and B-2s, routinely operate from Andersen Air Force Base, in Guam, strategically located 1,800 miles (about 2,900 km) to the east of China. And they can even launch round-trip strike missions from their bases located in the Continental U.S.

According to Xinhuanet, China cautioned the U.S. against taking any actions in the region, urging Washington “not to take any risks or make any provocations so as to maintain regional peace and stability.”

Image credit: Boeing

 

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On the evening of May 12, an Amtrak train carrying commuters from Washington, DC, to New York derailed, killing seven and injuring more than 200. To some, the deadly accident highlights the dangers posed by America’s crumbling and underfunded infrastructure, though on May 13, in a vote that had already been scheduled prior to the Amtrak crash, House Republicans voted to slash the budget for the publicly-funded railroad service by $260 million.

But Americans weren’t the only ones talking about the crash. China is home to the world’s longest high-speed rail network, built in just a decade. And while the officially communist country’s system of governance faces a bevy of international criticism for human rights violations and lack of rule of law, China’s steadily expanding infrastructure is a major point of national prestige. It’s also a major point of sensitivity; to many Chinese, the image of a train crash is deeply resonant, recalling a deadly high-speed crash in 2011 and a subsequent cover-up that cut to the heart of the legitimacy of their government. Perhaps that’s why some disgruntled Chinese web users have taken the Amtrak derailment as an opportunity to deflect criticism back on the United States.

Chinese netizens let loose the sarcasm on social media platform Weibo, parroting with apparent relish criticism, directed at China, that has been branded as Western — although much of it actually comes from Chinese reformists themselves. Though online chatter about the U.S. crash was limited, it was largely in this vein. One such criticism is that train crashes are a symptom of an inferior model of governance, often simply called a “system” in Chinese. “With such a backwards system and a backwards rail network, it would be strange if such accidents didn’t happen in the United States!” wrote one Weibo user on May 13. Another common criticism is that the Chinese government cares more about economic development, and its own survival, than the well-being of its people.  Still another feigned shock and denial, writing, “But how could a train derail in a democratic country?” And in a reference to China’s increasing number of international high-speed rail deals, one user proclaimed, in a comment that turned the U.S. save-the-world mentality on its head, “Chinese rail, it’s time to go save the American people!”

Such comments may appear to be simple schadenfreude, but they also reveal a lingering scar on China’s own national consciousness, and an ongoing debate between conservatives and reformists about the best path for China to take. In July 2011, 40 passengers were killed when two bullet trains collided in the southeastern city of Wenzhou. But government officials initially suppressed news of the crash; they even concealed one of the damaged train cars in a dirt pit, almost burying alive a three year-old girl still trapped in it. The memory of that attempt at deception hasn’t faded. On May 13, numerous Weibo users commenting on the Amtrak derailment made thinly-veiled references to the Wenzhou crash and the failed cover-up. One comment called on China’s pro-American liberals to “come out and cover up the scene” of the Amtrak accident. Another Weibo user fired out a series of mocking questions, writing, “Why haven’t you revealed the condition of the victims? What are you trying to hide? Who is lying?” Many believed the deadly crash was the result of a governance model which prioritized economic growth over human safety, as well as the corruption which has riddled China’s state-owned rail industry. To that, one user wrote, “A country that so disregards the safety of its people has a huge problem with its system.”

In the wake of the Amtrak tragedy, Americans got a taste of how a tragic train crash can trigger political and social controversy. In China, it dredged up memories of a years-old incident, and a simmering debate between liberals and conservatives, that’s never truly been buried.

Getty Images

Ce n’est la première fois que le médiateur intervient, la première de ses interventions remonte à plusieurs années comme le montre clairement une lecture attentive de la rubrique « Pour en savoir plus » ci-dessous.

La Médiatrice Emily Emily O’Reilly a fait à l’Agence Frontex de gestion des frontières extérieures communes un certain nombre de propositions pour qu’elle respecte davantage les droits fondamentaux des migrants faisant l’objet de procédures de retour forcé vers leur pays d’origine. Rappelons que de 2006 à 2015, Frontex a coordonné 267 vols conjoints de retour, ramenant en tout 13 000 personnes indique la médiatrice dans son communiqué. La réforme de Frontex ne semble pas avoir déjà porté tous les fruits attendus . (cf. l’article du 22.10 2011 de Nea say « de nouvelles règles pour renforcer Frontex » http://www.eu-logos.org/eu-logos_nea-say.php?idr=4&idnl=2240&nea=113&lang=fra&lst=0

Aujourd’hui ses recommandations portent notamment sur la situation des enfants et des femmes enceintes qui doivent être installés séparément des autres rapatriés. Frontex devrait également promouvoir des règles communes sur l’usage de la contrainte et obliger les Etats membres à améliorer les procédures de traitement des plaintes. La Médiatrice se dit également être déçue par le fait que Frontex refuse toujours de se doter de son propre mécanisme de traitement des plaintes. Ses préconisations concernent également et encore l’examen médical des migrants et la formation aux droits de l’homme du personnel escortant ces rapatriés .

Pour en savoir plus :

     -. Avis de la Médiatrice http://www.ombudsman.europa.eu/en/cases/correspondence.faces/en/11758/html.bookmark

     – . Propositions pour améliorer les opérations de retour : http://www.ombudsman.europa.eu/en/cases/summary.faces/en/59743/html.bookmark

   -. Recommandations de la Médiatrice concernant le respect de droits fondamentaux (FR) http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_EO-13-17_fr.htm (EN) http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_EO-13-17_en.htm

– . Dossier des articles de Nea say sur Frontex http://www.eu-logos.org/eu-logos_nea-say.php?idr=4&idnl=3500&nea=156&lang=fra&arch=0&term=0

 

 

 

 

Classé dans:Conditions d'accueil des réfugiés, DIGNITE HUMAINE, Droit à l'intégrité de la personne, Droit à la santé, Droits de l'enfant, DROITS FONDAMENTAUX, IMMIGRATION

Macédoine : gouvernement Gruevski, le début de la fin ?
Macédoine : la manifestation vire aux affrontements dans le centre de Skopje
Macédoine : un sit-in contre les violences policières
Macédoine : les étudiants en grève font plier le gouvernement

/ Politique intérieure, Courrier des Balkans, Macédoine, Dérive autoritaire Macédoine

 

By Chris Mondloch
Best Defense guest columnist

Back in February, several Members of Parliament began urging the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence to stand up a Sikh regiment in the U.K. Army. Not surprisingly, a similar proposal was dashed in 2007 amid charges of being segregationist.

But Sir Nicholas Soames, who was a Defence Minister in the’ 90s and is now a Conservative MP, has decided to take another stab at creating an all-Sikh regiment. Rory Stewart, who chairs the Defence Select Committee, responded favorably to the proposal, but suggested a reserve Sikh regiment may be the best initial option. Either way, the Conservatives’ resounding election victory last week means this proposal is likely to receive serious consideration. All of the very apparent racial sensitivities considered, is there way that creating an all-Sikh Army regiment could actually make sense in terms of the U.K.’s policy goals?

The answer is probably no. But it’s worth a closer look, because bringing back a segregated military unit has important considerations for the U.K.’s desired identity, and will certainly conjure up some pretty negative colonial memories.

On the face of it, this is a move to achieve higher inclusion among British Sikhs, who are severely underrepresented in the armed forces. Only about one in every 30,000 British Sikhs are currently in the military, which is much lower than the national ratio of approximately one in every 300 Brits in uniform. Hypothetically, standing up a 700-man Sikh regiment would boost national unity, patriotism, and all that good stuff.

From the religion’s beginnings in early 16th century India, the Sikhs have a storied history as a minority group who had to fight to maintain their religious freedoms amidst oppression. Sikhism developed out of abhorrence for the Hindu caste system, cementing a legacy of dissent against prevailing social orders. By 1700, the Sikhs had developed a ‘spiritual-military collective’ willing to fight for their faith, first against the Islamic Mughal Empire, and then against the Afghan invasion of the subcontinent. When the British East India Company’s army invaded the Punjab region in 1845, the Sikhs nearly defeated the imperial forces but were eventually forced to surrender.

In the colonial era that followed, the Sikhs forged strong ties with the British, who incorporated two battalions of Sikh infantrymen into the imperial army. In addition to their service on the subcontinent, hundreds of thousands of Sikhs fought for the U.K. in World War I and World War II.

Given the Sikh’s warrior culture and history of royal service, it’s not hard to fathom why certain British policymakers want to increase their numbers in the military. But creating an all-Sikh unit in 2015 seems like an outdated imperial solution to the modern-day problems facing the U.K. MP Soames (who happens to be Winston Churchill’s grandson) called on the MoD to “do away with political correctness” because a Sikh regiment would “make up a very serious gap in our armed forces.”

What serious gap is this? Adding less than 700 troops to a military that is 187,000 strong will hardly boost operational capabilities in any significant way.

Rather, the gap that Soames wants to fill is more based on identity. With an elevated threat risk from jihadist elements in the U.K., and an embarrassingly high number of radicalized British citizens traveling to the Middle East to join ISIS and other Islamist groups, supporters of a Sikh regiment likely wish to give the U.K. Army a more ethnic dimension. After all, this was a successful strategy for the Brits as they conquered a quarter of the world in the 19th century, so what’s to stop it from working now?

Granted, the Sikh community doesn’t seem like a bad place to start. They are a proud people with a legacy of promoting religious tolerance and fighting Muslim persecutors, not to mention their historic loyalty to the crown. Sikh membership in the Armed Services is not proportionate to population demographics, so it makes sense for policymakers to seek a plan to increase recruitment, which Sikh leadership in the U.K. has supported. But given the U.K.’s colonial past, creating an ethnically and religiously homogenous Army regiment is likely to do more harm than good, harkening back to an imperial era that has long since passed.

The Ministry of Defence has also recently called for an increased recruitment effort among British Muslims, who are also severely underrepresented in the armed forces. It has been estimated that there are twice as many British Muslims in ISIS than the U.K. military. However, it is hard to fathom any parliamentary support for an all-Muslim regiment to combat this frightening trend.

Some ethnic units do still exist in the British military. The Royal Gurkha Rifles, comprised solely of Nepalese soldiers, remain operational, as do the Scottish, Welsh, and Irish Guards. But while still perhaps vestiges of colonial times, these units are based on territorial affiliations, not religious identity. Explaining the benefits of maintaining the Gurkhas, the MoD says the following:

One of the strengths of a Gurkha battalion on operations today, and particularly in Afghanistan, is the ability of the soldiers to understand cultural nuances, and to empathise with people in conflict zones. Unforgiving in battle, the soldiers are equally generous and warm hearted to those who are affected by conflict.

Although some of these statements are questionable in themselves, it’s an even further stretch to apply this logic to the creation of a Sikh regiment. Whereas the Gurkhas are recruited straight from the Himalayan foothills, a Sikh regiment would recruit from London and Birmingham, hardly a rough-and-tumble warrior culture. Sikhs should be proud of their ancestors’ honorable military legacy, but their valor alone is not enough to justify a segregated unit for a new generation of soldiers.

Sikhs do have legitimate concerns about serving in an integrated military setting. Sikh men are not permitted to shave their beards or cut their hair, and must wear a turban at all times. Strict grooming standards have traditionally deterred Sikhs and other religious groups from serving in uniform. It is especially bad in the U.S. military, which as of last year only had three observant Sikhs in service. It was only in 2010 that the military relaxed its strict regulations banning articles of faith in uniform. The most recent DoD policy allows Sikhs to wear the turban, beard, and long hair in uniform only after they obtain a waiver from their chain of command, meaning their freedoms are subject to change anytime they change duty stations – not exactly providing any level of certainty for prospective Sikh recruits. Just this past November, the ACLU and United Sikhs sued the Army after a Sikh college student was banned from Hofstra University’s ROTC program for his personal appearance.

The U.K., however, has more progressive policy. Turbans and beards are allowed for practicing Sikhs to serve in in almost all settings, including the several Sikh soldiers who have served as Buckingham Palace guardsmen. The only restrictions in the MoD’s Religious Fact Sheet are based on operational concerns — Sikhs may not be able to serve on aircrews because of the tight-fitting helmet, and may need to shave in life-threatening situations where a beard prevents a respirator or gas mask from sealing.

Although British Sikhs face few restrictions in terms of grooming standards, that doesn’t necessarily make it easy to serve in an integrated unit. A huge part of being in the military is conformity and unit cohesion. It must be very difficult for a young Sikh soldier, who stands out from his peers and follows a different grooming standard. But providing a quick fix to the problem by putting all the Sikhs in their own unit does not solve an institutional problem. Sikhs face racism in the civilian world as well — incidents like the 2014 attack on a Sikh lawyer in London and the murder of a Sikh gas station clerk in Arizona right after 9/11 are among the most severe examples of the bigotry that still exists. Fostering an institutional culture of acceptance within the British armed forces, rather than bending to underlying discrimination, is the best way to address this problem from within.

The U.K. is already way ahead of the U.S. in terms of creating hospitable military conditions for Sikhs and other religious devotees who require relaxed grooming standards. Soames and others are right to recognize the need to recruit more Sikhs and remind the general public that many generations of Sikhs have served the U.K. honorably. But segregating them into their own regiment is not a prudent way to foster feelings of greater unity or enhance operational capability. It is more likely to highlight Sikhs’ differences and open up a Pandora’s Box of post-imperial sentiments and further calls for religious segregation of the British military.

Chris Mondloch served as an intelligence analyst for the U.S. Marine Corps for seven years, including a deployment to Helmand Province, Afghanistan in 2012. He is graduating from the London School of Economics this fall with a Master’s Degree in International Relations. He tweets at @C_Mondloch

Joshua Martin/U.S. Navy/Flickr

By James Sisco and Ajit Maan
Best Defense guest columnists

Clearly extremists are not afraid to fight or to die. They often welcome and embrace the idea of martyrdom. So, what are they afraid of? A common operating procedure among various extremist groups is to control and disempower girls and women. If one of their central operating procedures is any indication, they are afraid of girls. Smart girls.

The mechanisms extremists use to control women include rape, acid attacks, slave trading, and stoning. They occur in places like Somalia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Iraq, and Myanmar to ensure that women do not participate in the political process and is a central tenant of extremism wherever it is found. The fact that forced control of women and girls is a priority for extremist groups ought to clue us into a potential weakness that can be exploited.

Women in conflict zones represent an immense untapped resource to create and ensure stability within communities and societies. The segment of the population that is disproportionally targeted for systematic suppression possesses the potential to alter the power structures of the environment. That is why they are targeted.

When we see menacing images of men dressed in black wielding swords we should recognize that educated women might be their un-doing. And they know it. That is why Boko Haram abducted over 200 Nigerian schoolgirls. That is why fourteen-year-old year old Malala Yousafzai was shot in the face on her way to school — not just anywhere but symbolically — on her way to school. That is why acid attacks target girls attending school rather than girls in brothels. It is the potential danger that educated girls represent that scares extremists most.

Educated women and girls have the potential to do what drones, bullets and boots on the ground cannot do; they can counter extremism from the inside. Therefore, the U.S. and its allies should adopt an approach that empowers women on the ground in conflict zones to preempt and counter violent extremism. Instead of viewing women in war zones only as victims, we should view them in an irregular warfare context as potentially powerful allies.

The “human terrain” has traditionally been limited to male terrain. And when women have been engaged, the engagement has been limited to intelligence gathering — a good move but one without strategic foresight. Limiting engagements to a Q&A session (Where are the bad guys?) over-looks valuable social information and potential collaboration opportunities.

While there have been admirable and well intentioned development initiatives to stabilize situations for women in hot spots, many of them, while deserving of support, have not moved beyond a humanitarian framework. The Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review recognizes this. It makes the point that empowering women is not just a nice thing to do—it is imperative to the long-term security of the U.S. and counter-terrorism efforts. The concept is based on forming coalitions with women on the ground. But while the report’s vision is compelling its implementation remains somewhat vague.

A women-focused shared security approach delivers an instrument to bridge the gap between theory and application. Aligning U.S. security interests and the security interests of women in conflict zones, establishes a platform to develop strategies and programs to empower women and counter extremism. The initiative is much like the one implemented by a Special Forces in Kandahar, Afghanistan.

In Kandahar, Identity Conflict Theory was applied to a tribal society to determine its primary and secondary identity layers. Understanding identities and basic community needs enabled the construction of small-scale, high-impact development projects that not only addressed community needs but also established positive relationships between Special Forces and the local community. For example, contributing to local agricultural development led not only to a 350 percent increase in yields, but also a 10-fold reduction in roadside bombs in some of the most insecure districts of the Kandahar province. Within eight months of the implementation of this program, one of the most kinetic environments in Afghanistan became relatively benign.

A women focused shared security initiative would directly engage female populations with the understanding that security means different things for women than it does for men. The traditional assumption that women’s security concerns are addressed when men’s security concerns are addressed doesn’t follow. Not only are women’s concerns left largely unaddressed by all-male coalitions, but also over-looked is the tremendous potential for a different kind of civil engagement.

If we set aside both ethical considerations and heroic self-image, and consider the situation strictly from a pragmatic point of view, we will view girls and women in conflict zones as more than deserving recipients of generosity. They are invaluable assets in preventing and addressing extremism in their families and communities. Making coalitions with this over-looked majority of the population is important to our own national security interests. If we include the ethical component and national identity, we have a multi-faceted motivation to secure and ensure women’s participation in the security, policy, and economic infrastructures of their communities.

Women in conflict zones represent an immense untapped resource that has significant influence and the ability to alter power structures within communities and societies. We should harness the power and capitalize on the strategic benefits of forming coalitions with women in areas where we want to have influence. Empowering women and girls is ethically responsible, consistent with U.S. national policy and a strategically prudent security measure.

James Sisco is a former recon Marine and naval intelligence officer and currently the president of ENODO Global, a business intelligence firm that focuses on population-centric analysis to solve complex social problems in dynamic cultural environments. Ajit Maan, Ph.D. is ENODO Global’s vice president for research and analysis and author of Counter-Terrorism: Narrative Strategies and Inter-narrative Identity: Placing the Self. She also edits the Strategic Narrative blog.

U.S. Army/Flickr

 

More than ever, I am persuaded that it was British spec ops who did arranged the assassination of French Admiral Darlan, the former chief of its Navy who became a Vichy leader. I was just rereading volume three of Churchill’s memoirs of World War II and noticed his description of the admiral as a “dangerous, bitter, ambitious man.”

In warfare, if you think a foe is dangerous, you do something about it.

National Archives

 

The local communities in South Sudan’s Greater Upper Nile region have borne the brunt of the politically driven violence that began in December 2013. Since then, nearly 2 million people have been forced from their homes. Farmers have been unable to plant their crops due to continuing insecurity, increasing the threat of famine, and outbreaks of disease like Cholera have struck refugee camps and conflict-affected areas alike. In the midst of this, communication has broken down. To reach the people they need to — internally displaced people and those who remain in danger zones — media and humanitarian organizations have had to find new ways of using decidedly low-tech solutions.

While mobile phones and online social networks are pervasive in South Sudan’s urban areas, in the country’s rural regions many people still rely on traditional means of communication – primarily radio. Nearly three-quarters of the population listen on a daily basis. For many people in Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity states, where the fighting has been the thickest community radio and shortwave are critical sources of information about the conflict. And the lack of communication options has forced peacebuilders to take creative and novel steps to do get across messages that both contain vital information — and could even help pave the way toward peace.

The Sawa Shabab radio drama, produced by Free Voice South Sudan and United States Institute of Peace (which founded the PeaceTech Lab, where I work), is one of the more innovative attempts to reach at-risk youth communities. Premised around hosting a continuing conversation with youths and changing attitudes about their roles in resolving conflict, the first season began airing last year in English and Arabic — five episodes were also piloted in Dinka and Nuer languages. At the end of each episode, the program asks its audience to call and text into the show and respond to scripted questions about the storylines and how they think the characters are responding to conflict. The show receives an average of 400 responses per episode — and some of the seem to point toward the show making real progress. One young man from Bor, the capital of Jonglei State, called in to say: “Thank you all in the new nation Sawa Shabab! My message is that we must understand our peoples and ourselves. Let us do things (to address) what happens in our country.” But even for those who can’t respond, it empowers the youth audience to think differently about how to build peace.

And Sawa Shabab is not the only effective radio program in dealing with the country’s conflict.

Internews, an international media development NGO, has developed a radio program called “Boda Boda Talk Talk” that airs in U.N. camps for internally displaced people in Juba and Malakal. Broadcast on speakers in tents or attached to speakers driven around the IDP camps on motorbikes (called boda bodas), it offers a news update with local information and NGO-sponsored info about services for displaced people. Greetings sent from camp inhabitants to others and two-minute soap operas on relevant issues acted out by locals comprise the rest of the program. Internews trains local citizen journalists on how to gather information in the camps and investigate what the displaced communities’ needs are. The goal of the program is to help humanitarian NGOs communicate more effectively with displaced people in need of services. “The big thing about our project is that we’ve enabled NGOs to give simple solutions to provide information,” Meena Bhandari, Director of Humanitarian Programs at Internews said. “We can do that with simple technology by making professional recordings on a USB stick and blasting it on a speaker.”

During the worst of the fighting over the last year and a half, a handful of community stations were destroyed. Some have been rebuilt, while others have broken new ground — Internews launched a station called Nile FM in March 2015 to cater to displaced communities. The U.N.’s Radio Miraya also reaches IDP camps, and Radio Tamazuj, an independent station, is widely listened to via shortwave throughout the region. All told, two to three local FMs stations service the state capitals in the Greater Upper Nile, as well as three Internews-supported community stations and additional Radio Miraya repeaters, which retransmit the network’s signal.

Despite the relative success of these radio programs, traditional obstacles such as the lack of local language media content and poor information infrastructure continue to limit how far media projects can reach. The war has brought additional challenges to informing these at-risk communities.

For example, the political space for open debate and press freedom has been diminished as a result of the on-going violence. Although local media were under scrutiny prior to the first outbreak of fighting in December 2013, control has gotten even tighter. Numerous journalists have been arrested and attacked in the past year and a half, including five journalists killed in January by unidentified gunmen. Local radio stations such as the Catholic Radio Network’s Radio Bakhita have been shut down. Even the U.N.’s Radio Miraya has been threatened with closure. The government does not tolerate interviews with or statements from rebel leaders. As a result, according to a report by the British Foreign & Commonwealth Office, “self-censorship by journalists and media houses continues to be widespread.”

Still, the boundaries of communication are still being pushed with new technologies.

USAID’s VISTAS program, administered by AECOM International, is initiating a pilot program that will distribute up to 250,000 digital audio players to areas in Jonglei and Unity states where FM radio is unavailable. The players would be loaded with peace-oriented programs from other organizations as well as their own material related to trauma healing. Cell phones are part of this, too. Mobile penetration rates, while still low at 28 percent nationally, according to the 2013 National Audience Survey conducted by Forcier Consulting, are substantially higher in urban areas. Natalie Forcier, CEO of Forcier Consulting in South Sudan, told me, “Access to a mobile network can be life or death for communities. It’s a building block that opens door for everything else in development.”

Yet despite the potential of mobile, it’s far from a panacea. John Tanza Mabusu, co-host of Voice of America’s “South Sudan in Focus” program, argued, “Mobile is effective but literacy is an issue (for text messaging). How many people can read your message? Interpretation of this message can differ. How do you interpret a message about the peace deal in Addis Ababa? The best way of passing information is by empowering existing radio stations with good reach.”

Similarly, good old-fashioned face-to-face interaction is still one of the most trusted means of communication in many rural communities. Some humanitarian organizations continue to utilize word-of-mouth and distribution of leaflets with cartoons to spread the news about cholera treatment and sources of clean drinking water. As with radio, however, local and international groups are also beginning to use inter-personal communications in innovative new ways to reach at-risk people with entertaining and educational information about peace and health services.

One promising byproduct of the on-going conflict in South Sudan is a subtle shift in the collective mindset regarding how information is consumed. For the humanitarian organizations doing their best to provide services to the at-risk communities, creative programs like “Boda Boda Talk Talk” can help them understand the people they serve better. For local people who are struggling to manage displacement and insecurity, they are increasingly seeking sources of information outside their personal networks. Nicola Franco, a producer at Free Voice South Sudan, explained, “The conflict has changed things because there is more demand for information from the capital. People want to know the news through radio – and whether the rebels are coming.”

 ASHRAF SHAZLY/AFP/Getty Images

Die früheren Sowjetrepubliken leiden unter der Wirtschaftskrise in Russland. Das geht aus aktuellen Prognosen der Europäischen Entwicklungsbank hervor.

Bundespräsident Joachim Gauck, Frankreichs Präsident François Hollande und diesjährige Träger des Aachener Karlspreises, EU-Parlamentspräsident Martin Schulz, haben die Europäer aufgefordert, angesichts neuer Gefahren von innen und außen enger zusammenzurücken.

Angesichts der wachsenden Zahl von Konflikten und Krisen rund um Europa wollen die NATO und die EU enger zusammenarbeiten, insbesondere im Kampf gegen die hybride Kriegsführung – etwa im Ukraine-Konflikt.

La Vigie, lettre d'analyse stratégique publiée par Jean Dufourcq et Olivier Kempf et paraissant tous les deux mercredis, vous propose son numéro 16. Vous trouverez dans ce numéro daté du 13 mai 2015 un texte intitulé La Turquie, entre ottomanisme et islamisme, un autre sur des Militaires à tout faire ?, une Lorgnette sur Londres au large. Les entames des articles sont lisibles ci-dessous. Les conditions d'abonnement sont en fin de message. Si vous êtes déjà abonné à La Vigie, vous pouvez accéder directement au numéro 16 en vous rendant sur cette page.

Vous pouvez lire également les billet parus la semaine dernière sur notre site, en libre accès :

• Le numéro 15 bis qui propose un récapitulatif de tous les numéros publiés par la Vigie ainsi que les sujets traités, ainsi qu'un billet A contre-courants traitant de trois sujets d'actualité (les migrations en Méditerranée, la vente des Rafale, l'opération Sentinelle), une Lorgnette sur Les drones.
• Un billet de Th. Flichy de la Neuville sur "Vendre son royaume".

La Turquie, entre ottomanisme et islamisme

La Turquie se prépare aux élections législatives difficiles du 7 juin prochain. À l’occasion du renouvellement des 550 députés, le président turc, Recep Erdogan, espère que son parti, l’AKP, atteindra les deux-tiers des sièges, ce qui lui permettrait de modifier la constitution à sa guise, en faveur d’un exécutif plus fort. En effet, le poste de président est encore largement honorifique. Toutefois, la préparation de l’élection a laissé voir de multiples tensions au sein de l’AKP (voir ici) qui viennent après les fortes tensions politiques rendues publiques l’an dernier, à l’occasion des élections présidentielles. La gauche s’était alors mobilisée (manifestations violemment réprimées notamment dans un parc d’Istanbul), tandis que les islamistes s’étaient eux-mêmes durement divisés, les güleinistes se démarquant nettement de la ligne de l’AKP. Erdogan avait malgré tout gagné les élections. Toutes ces divergences illustrent une vie politique toujours animée et contrastée, qui produit une politique extérieure assez brouillonne et difficilement lisible (...)

Militaires à tout faire ?

On peut s’inquiéter- nous sommes quelques-uns dans ce cas, et souvent à contre-courant (cf. La Vigie n°15bis) - de la propension actuelle à confier à « l’armée » toutes les tâches d’ordre et d’autorité que l’État ne sait plus assumer ou que la France refuse d’endosser directement. L’opération intérieure « Sentinelle », le Service militaire volontaire à vocation sociale, l’éradication des trafiquants qui rackettent les migrants en Méditerranée sont les récents avatars de ces missions militaires de dernier recours. Pendant la guerre froide, il en allait de même pour l’aménagement du territoire, la recherche scientifique fondamentale, le soutien à l’exportation de matériel militaire qui constituaient les à-côtés coûteux des budgets militaires et supportaient des coûts relevant d’autres ministères (affaires sociales, industrie, intérieur), au nom de la cohésion, de la souveraineté ou de l’autonomie de la France. Les forces armées sont, en France, le couteau suisse de l’État. (...)

Pour avoir accès au numéro 16 en entier, rendez-vous sur le site de La Vigie et abonnez-vous : l'abonnement découverte pour 3 mois vaut 16 €, l'abonnement annuel pour les particuliers vaut 60 €, l'abonnement pour les entreprises et organisations (5 licences) vaut 250 €. Pour s'abonner, cliquer sur le lien “Vigie n° 16”, ajoutez au panier, cliquez sur “régler ma commande", payez, comme sur n'importe quel site de commande en ligne. Une fois que vous serez abonnés, vous recevrez un courriel avec un lien direct vers le numéro et à l'avenir, chaque numéro arrivera directement dans votre boite mail.

Vous pouvez aussi vous procurer le numéro à l'unité, de la même façon.

L'avenir de La Vigie et son développement (pour apprécier le projet, lire “à propos”) dépend de vos abonnements. Nous espérons que vous nous souviendrez dans cette aventure. Bien cordialement,

Jean Dufourcq et Olivier Kempf

Battle robots capable of destroying both tanks and human soldiers have successfully passed military trials in southern Russia.

Románia nyilvánosságra hozta, hogy mely légibázist jelölték ki a várhatóan 2016-tól érkező, Portugáliától megvásárolt F-16-osok otthonául: a választás a Román Légierő 86. számú bázisára, Fetești-re esett, ahol jelenleg a MiG-21LanceR-eket üzemeltető 861. és 862. vadászszázad, illetve az IAR-330 típusú helikoptereket üzemeltető 363. helikopter század települ. A légibázis felújításra szorul, tervek szerint 32 millió euróból újulhat meg, mely összeg nagy részét a NATO fedezi. Az aranyosgyéresi bázist szintén felújítják 2015 második felében. 

Megjelent a kertészeti gépek beszerzéséhez nyújtandó támogatások felhívása.

Pályázók köre: mezőgazdasági termelők

Elszámolható költségek: a felhívásban meghatározott paramétereknek megfelelő és a gépkatalógusban szereplő új kertészeti gépek.

Támogatás mértéke: 35-45%

 Vissza nem térítendő támogatás, melynek összege

• kisértékű beruházás estén: max. 5 millió Ft.
• nagyértékű beruházás estén: max. 50 millió Ft.

A támogatási kérelem benyújtási ideje: 2015. május 18. 8:00-tól forráskimerülésig, de legkésőbb 2015. június 1. 18:00-ig.

Amennyiben pályázni szeretne, kérjük írjon e-mailt névvel és telefonszámmal a palyazat@operativprogram.hu címre és ingyenes tanácsadás keretében felvesszük Önnel a kapcsolatot.

Der Österreicher Kurt Bergmann spricht sich für eine beispiellose Hilfsaktion aus, um in Ländern wirksame Hilfe zu leisten, die von Not und Krieg besonders gekennzeichnet sind und aus denen massenhaft Flüchtlinge nach Europa kommen. Getragen werden soll die Aktion von den öffentlich-rechtlichen Rundfunkanstalten aus ganz Europa.

Afghanistan

Kabul hotel attacked by Taliban

Fourteen people, including one American, were killed in an attack on a Kabul hotel on Wednesday (BBC, AP, CNN, NYT). Gunman stormed the Park Palace Guest House late Wednesday evening as a crowd, many of them foreigners, gathered for a concert at the hotel, which is in a wealthier part of the capital near several aid agencies and a hospital. Police stormed the hotel after the three gunmen were inside, but the attackers were able to hold the hotel for five hours. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack.

NATO to stay in Afghanistan after 2016

On Wednesday, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) formally announced plans to retain a small troop presence in Afghanistan after 2016 (WSJ, Pajhwok). NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the future mission, called “Enduring Partnership,” would be led by civilians. NATO’s leadership will finalize plans for the new mission by the fall, but Stoltenberg said that the NATO force in the country would be smaller than the current one.

India

Prime Minister Modi meets President Xi

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in China on Thursday, launching a three-day official visit (U.S. News & World Report, Times of India, BBC). In a sign of personal diplomacy, Modi met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the city of Xian, Xi’s hometown in central Shaanxi province. This was intended to mirror Xi’s visit to India last September, when Modi hosted the Chinese president in his own hometown of Ahmedabad in the western state of Gujarat. The two leaders met for about an hour and a half and discussed a number of issues, including border disputes, terrorism, and bilateral trade and investment, which is Modi’s top priority on this trip. Modi hopes to decrease India’s $38 billion trade deficit with China and attract Chinese investment in Indian infrastructure projects (NYT). Modi also visited cultural sites including a Buddhist temple housing translations of Sanskrit texts and the famed Terra Cotta Warriors. Modi is scheduled to meet with the Chinese Prime Minister in Beijing on Friday and Chinese business leaders in Shanghai on Saturday (WSJ).

Indian Cabinet approves child labor ban with exceptions

The Indian Cabinet approved amendments to a bill on Wednesday that would ban the employment of children under the age of 14, except in certain industries (Hindustan Times, Firstpost). The Child Labour Prohibition Bill, introduced in 2012 by the previous Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, originally called for an outright ban on employing children under 14. The current Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government’s version of the bill carves out exceptions for “non-hazardous” family enterprises, the entertainment industry, and sports. Under the current law, child labor is allowed in all but 18 specified occupations. Children’s rights activists decried the inclusion of the exceptions in the bill, arguing that they were regressive and in contradiction to the Right to Education Act, which guarantees education for children under 14 years of age. “The provision, ‘home-based industries,’ will be used for exploitation of children and betrays the real intent of this government. We are legalizing a horrible reality instead of banning it,” said activist lawyer Vrinda Grover (Times of India). The proposed amendments also increase penalties for employers but decrease penalties for parents for breaching the law.

Indian Supreme Court demands action on India-Bangladesh border

The Supreme Court of India chastised both the central government and the government of the northeastern state of Assam on Wednesday for “dragging their feet” on securing the border with Bangladesh (The Times of India). The court accused the central government of not paying enough attention to India’s eastern border, noting, “The western border with Pakistan, being 3,300 km long, is not only properly fenced but properly manned too and not porous at any point” (The Hindu). In a judgment made in December of last year, the court had ordered the central government to construct roads and install floodlights along the eastern border to prevent illegal immigration and cross-border trafficking. Led by Justice Ranjan Gogoi, the Supreme Court accused both the central government and Assam state government of not implementing its orders in a timely fashion. The court has appointed an independent commissioner to visit the border and report back to the court in three weeks. The court also expressed disapproval of the Assam High Court’s lack of urgency in filling positions for special foreigners tribunals, which are charged with identifying and deporting illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. India and Bangladesh recently reached a deal to resolve all outstanding border disputes between the two countries.

Pakistan

Mass funeral in Karachi

A mass funeral took place in Karachi on Thursday for the victims of a militant attack on a bus carrying minority Ismaili Shia Muslims (BBC, ET). Flags were flown at half-mast and markets, schools, and transit were closed during the day of mourning. At least 45 people were killed in the attack by gunmen on a crowded bus on the city’s outskirts. Officials found pamphlets purporting to be from ISIS at the site of the attack, but the Pakistani Taliban also claimed responsibility for the attack.

— Emily Schneider and Udit Banerjea

Edited by Peter Bergen

Par Adopt a laying hen

L’œuf sortant de la poule, rien de mieux pour sécuriser vos approvisionnements que de posséder une poule, n’est-ce pas ? Mais il n’est pas facile d’avoir une poule chez soit lorsque l’on vit en appartement ou lorsque les arrêtés municipaux vous interdisent d’avoir un poulailler dans votre jardin. Il existe maintenant un service qui vous permettra de posséder cet animal et de le laisser en pension chez un producteur. Adopte une poule « Adopt a Layin Hen » vous propose ce service dont je vous détaille ci-dessous les avantages.

Une approche pédagogique

Si vous adoptez une poule vous réaliserez qu’elle n’est pas une machine à faire des œufs. En effet, en 1900 une poule pondait en moyenne 100 œufs par an. Aujourd’hui le travail sur la génétique des animaux, leur alimentation et les conditions de vie (lumière, chauffage…) permet à certain producteur de tourner autour de 350 œufs par an et par bestiau. Mais les conditions que vie de l’animal vous rappelleront les pires documentaire sur la malbouffe. Même les producteur locaux (osztermélo) ont tendance aujourd’hui à avoir la main lourde sur l’alimentation non conventionnelle (tap) pour faire pondre leur gallinacées en évitant les baisses de production en période basse.

Adopte une poule ne met pas de pression sur vos poules qu’ils préfèrent d’ailleurs de race ancienne. L’alimentation est intégralement composée de produit locaux et il n’y a aucun ajout d’aliment à forte teneur énergétique (farines animales). L’éclairage et la température ne sont pas artificiellement modifiés. Pour autant la ponte de leurs poules tourne autour des 120 œufs par an avec des pics de production entre avril et juin et entre septembre et octobre, lorsque les températures sont aux alentours des 20°C. En dehors de ces périodes, la poule ne pond que très peu et c’est bien ainsi.

Comme vous serez le tuteur légal d’une poule, vous aurez légalement le droit (voir l’obligation) de vérifier que ses conditions de vie sont en adéquation avec ce qui vous a été « vendu ». Vous pourrez donc visiter les installations et même, si vous le désirez, sortir votre poule, pour une balade en forêt par exemple.

Adopt a Layin Hen, Site internet et page facebook

Le schéma du « biologique » revisité

Le secteur de l’alimentation biologique est depuis toujours une niche pour les producteurs mais aussi pour les consommateurs. Le prix des produits et la sensibilité des consommateurs font que ces derniers sont souvent issus d’une CSP moyenne/haute avec un attrait pour les produits sains. On les appelle parfois les « bobos ». On retrouve aussi souvent du côté des producteurs ce même type de public.

Chez Adopte une Poule vous ne trouverez pas un ancien Directeur RH d’une multinationale qui managera vos poules. Ce service s’adresse en effet uniquement à des producteurs locaux (Ostermelo) des zones rurales ayant des installations (poulaillers) mais ne faisant plus que très peu d’élevage en raison de l’absence de débouché. Le modèle qui leur est proposé repose sur une quantité maximale de poules (40)  par exploitant avec un renouvellement du cheptel géré par l’association. Avec de tels volumes, le revenu annuel net de l’exploitant se situe entre 80.000 et 120.000ft en fonction de sa capacité à optimiser sa production (poulailler confortable, production des aliments…). Il ne s’agit donc que d’un complément de salaire mais quand on connait la situation sociale dans les campagnes hongroises, ce petit plus représente en moyenne un mois de salaire chaque année.

Du cross-funding, sans s’en apercevoir

Le cross-funding c’est à la mode et ça fait branché. Sans s’en apercevoir, il est au cœur de ce concept, car lorsque vous adoptez votre poule vous investissez à moyen terme dans cette aventure. Avec cet argent, une nouvelle poule accédera au poulailler ou une poule déjà intégrée à la basse-cours trouvera un débouché à ses œufs. C’est la manière la plus simple de financer le futur de votre exploitation. En plus pas de risque pour votre investissement car vous pourrez rompre votre contrat d’adoption à tout moment et être remboursé des œufs non ingérés.

C’est aussi un bon investissement pour le futur car l’inflation annuelle sur l’œuf est aux alentours des 20% en Hongrie. Lorsque vous adoptez un poulet votre période pour retirer les œufs est d’un an. Pour autant les œufs auront toujours le même prix et vous serez gagnant de toute façon.

Les œufs sont mis à disposition dans des points de collecte.

Soyez vous aussi acteur dans cette aventure

Si vous avez déjà adopté une poule, vous pouvez maintenant passer de l’autre coté du miroir.  L’association recrute pour gérer des points de production et de distribution, ainsi que la logistique. N’avez-vous pas un jour rêvé de devenir un manager de poules ?

Dès son lancement, le service a été pris d’assaut. En 2 jours il ne restait plus de poulets candidats à l’adoption et une liste d’attente a été mise en place. Des lots de poulets sont proposés à l’adoption de temps à autre, mais en privilégiant les races anciennes, les candidats sont peu nombreux.

Heureusement il sera prochainement possible d’adopter un poussin qui 6 mois plus tard sera une poule en capacité de vous donner le change.