By Joseph de Tuombuk*
The efforts to return peace in South Sudan have become so convoluted and tortured because there's a concerted effort by the West and its IGAD allies to solve all problems ailing South Sudan in one go. The West wants to completely revamp South Sudan political landscape and introduce hybrid regime change. It sees the IGAD-led peace process as the way to achieve this goal. The IGAD countries have their own well-known interests that they would like to protect. So, the peace process that should have been limited to crafting a political roadmap that would allow parties to compete on a level playing field, has now become so complicated that it will die under its own weight. Meanwhile, South Sudanese are caught in a deadly game with no end in sight. The so-called IGAD-plus ‘compromise document' is another item on a long list of failed efforts to come up with one-size fit all solution. Let's examine how the IGAD-led process has been a spectacular failure. But before delving into how messed up the IGAD-led process is, let's try to diagnose the genesis of the problem.
What transpired on December 15th?
It is known that the genesis of political crisis that led to an abortive effort to take over the power by force, has its roots in the SPLM's unresolved issues. The SPLM, whether many agree or not, is not a homogenous entity. It is a patchwork of political actors who have never really seen eye-to-eye, except when confronted with a single enemy in Khartoum. The SPLM should have been allowed to break up into its constituent parts that can become separate parties and compete against each other in elections. Riek Machar and his allies had an opportunity to form their party and take their case to the people of South Sudan. Even President Salva Kiir suggested as much; that those who disagree with him, ideologically or otherwise, should form their own party. For some unknown reasons, Riek and Co. refused to take a hint and instead started laying down ultimatums. Why was Riek so confident that he would challenge President Kiir? He had something up his sleeves, and tacit backing of the West. He believed that by taunting President Kiir to force his hand, a crisis would start and in the ensuing chaos, security apparatus allied to his faction would quickly gain control of Juba. Had Riek succeeded, he would have simply portrayed the power grab as a self-defense against ‘dictatorial' Kiir. The West was probably waiting to bless the outcome.
But things turned out differently. While Riek appeared to have been winning early skirmishes on the night of December 15, 2013, President Kiir quickly turned the tables and foiled what was turning out to be a well-concerted effort to take power. What happened in South Sudan could be described as a coup-on-the-fly. Coups come in differently flavors and shapes. The most commonly known type of a coup is one where a group of army officers capture critical infrastructure, arrest key government officials, liquidate those resisting, before showing up on some state-own broadcast networks to announce that they have ‘rescued' the country from mismanagement. The governing junta then coopts neutral or pliant political parties into the government. What happened in South Sudan on December 15, 2015 was something slightly different. The fighting within the Presidential Guard unit was intended to act as a catalyst for a far more nefarious action. Had Riek's operatives within the security forces prevailed, it is almost certain that President Kiir would have been killed along with resisting key personalities in his government.
The result would have been explained away as an ‘unfortunate' case where some elements within the Presidential Guard Unit initiated a disarmament of forces based on tribal affiliation, and thereby created a conflict with terrible and ‘unintended' results. The international community would have swooped in, ‘condemn' the tragic situation, and ask the new government to form a committee to investigate the tragic event. The committee would have most likely been headed by personalities from the West and international bodies. The outcome of such an investigation would have laid the blame on the dead guys. Case closed.
The Hapless IGAD Comes In
This brings me to the main theme of this paper. The IGAD-led process has complicated its work with little results to show. Early on, the negotiation parameters should have been set. The mediators should have identified the problems that culminated in the abortive coup. The main issue was lack of political space within the SPLM for those seeking to challenge President Salva Kiir. The mediators should have solved this issue by telling the rebels to form their own political party and take their case to the people of South Sudan. Instead, the mediators essentially allowed Riek's team to bring everything under the sun onto the negotiating table, starting with demanding President Kiir to step down. The government's team bears some blame. They should have told the mediators that some things are redlines and will not be entertained. If the IGAD mediators felt the need to bring everything to the table, that would have been the cue to return to Juba and let Riek come and take power.
The secondary issue was the fear among rebels that the environment is not conducive to allow for a fair political contest. This is where the bulk of the negotiation should have been focused. To solve this issue, the mediators should have come up with specific timetable for elections. The elections would be supervised by IGAD with help from the international community. All parties would be allowed to take part in the election. Each party would formulate its position and what it promises to do for South Sudan, and take its case to the populace. Whichever party wins will then commence the institutional reforms agenda.
Instead, the IGAD process became captive various interests. The West, being the one footing the bill, has seen the IGAD process as its opportunity to institute what can be termed as a ‘hybrid regime' change. We can see this in the so-called ‘compromise' peace document that has been presented to parties and with a date (8/17/15) when the signed document is due. As far as the West is concerned, the ‘compromise' document essentially achieves its goal of ‘saving' South Sudan from itself. Maybe it is time to let South Sudanese make the decision themselves. This can done via elections. If the people choose Riek's party, then that would be end of that. He can then proceed with his so-called reforms without a care in the world. Some items such as federalism would require asking the people of South Sudan if they want federalism. If he losses, he will continue to make a case why people should choose his party. The government would have made a huge compromise by letting a guy who destroyed a third of the country to freely participate in elections without being prosecuted.
The Way Forward
South Sudanese should take charge of their own destiny if their country will ever return to peace. The problem is that the opposition is doing the bidding of the West. It is not that the West like Riek's insurgency; they see it as a way to radically change how South Sudan is governed. For now, Riek is serving as a pressure on the government. The IGAD-plus process and its ‘compromise' document will meet the same fate that has bedeviled all previous mediation efforts because it's a forced document. With the insurgency fragmenting into smaller factions, Riek just did a repeat of 1991. The only difference is that the West sees him as its hope of enacting change in the country. We might as well do a Libya-type deal and see where the chips fall. Tragically, South Sudanese will continue to pay enormous price because our country is caught in ugly machinations of the West. Can the government be reformed without uprooting it? Sure. A clean election with the participation of all parties is necessary and then we can talk about reforming security, economic, and political space.
*The author is a South Sudanese commentator and analyst. He can be reached at joe.tuombuk@gmail.com.
August 11, 2015 (LEER/MAYIANDIT) - South Sudanese rebels in the oil-rich Unity state have accused forces loyal to president Salva Kiir and their Bul-Nuer and Dinka Warrap allied militias of killing over 200 civilians, mainly women and children, last month in Leer and Mayiandit counties.
In a press release extended to Sudan Tribune on Tuesday by press secretary of the rebel appointed governor of Unity state, Ruai Kuol Jal, he accused the pro-government forces of attacking civilians and continuing to loot their properties, in the south of the state capital, Bentiu.
“This is to tell the world that Juba regime and allied militias are continuing with their search for those who have gone to bush for hiding, killing them and abducted girls as sex slaves,” Major Weirial Puok told Sudan Tribune over phone interview.
The official claimed that government forces looted cattle and food stuffs belonging to vulnerable civilians in the area.
Kuong Kuony Dhol, Leer county commissioner for rebels allied to Machar also told Sudan Tribune in a separate interview that government forces were searching for the hideouts of the civilians to kill, torture or abduct them.
He accused the government of committing crimes against humanity following abduction of children and murder of civilians. Dhol claimed their forces were regrouping in several parts of the county to encounter attacks on pro-government offensive.
“We are in preparation for full scale resistance against these gangs whose aim [is] to finish the citizens after they looted their resources. For that matter you will hear different news whereby my station will not be Leer again but Mayom or Tonj,” he said.
He further said that pro-government forces killed 20 civilians in an area called Kumagap, a suburb of Adok Payam with other 80 people murdered in Philieny and Rubchiar between 28 July and 1 August.
In separate development, Mayiandit county commissioner, Mangouth Koang, told Sudan Tribune over satellite phone interview that dropped food items by World Food Programme (WFP) in Boor area were looted by forces allied to president Salva Kiir.
“These militias of Salva Kiir forces have attacked Boor area after WFP dropped food items to hungry civilians, but these food [items] including cows and goats of civilians were all taken by militias from Bul [Nuer] and Warrap [Dinka] with a backup from government forces,” he said.
The commissioner claimed they were also tracking movement of government forces which planned to attack Payinjiar county at the border with Lakes state which has been one of the strongholds of the rebels allied to the former vice president Riek Machar for the past 20 months of the civil war.
The armed opposition commissioner of Payinjiar county however said their forces were closely monitoring the activities of pro-government forces in Lake state to attack the area through water and land, adding they were ready to face them.
(ST)
August 11, 2015 (KHARTOUM) - Sudanese presidential assistant Ibrahim Mahmoud Hamid reiterated the readiness of his government to reach a lasting ceasefire agreement with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement - North to end the four-year conflict in Blue Nile and South Kordofan.
Hamid was interviewed by several TV stations and the official Radio Omdurman where he lengthily spoke about the commitment of the ruling National Congress Party to hold an inclusive process for peace and reforms in Sudan.
He said they agreed with the head of the African Union High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) and chief mediator Thabo Mbeki contact the SPLM-N rebels to prepare the ground for the resumption of negotiations in order to end the armed conflict in the Two Areas.
"We reiterated our readiness to resume peace negotiations with the SPLM-N whenever the other party is ready to reach a permanent peace agreement with the government," said the presidential assistant.
The Sudanese official underscored that his government seeks "a permanent ceasefire and not a cessation of hostilities agreement".
During the last round of talks held in Addis Ababa in November last year, the SPLM-N negotiating team insisted on a humanitarian cessation of hostilities enabling aid workers to reach the affected civilians in the war zones.
The Sudanese rebel group rejects the demand saying the government wants a security arrangements agreement including the disarmament of its combatants before to hold a popular consultation on the administrative situation of the Blue Nile and South Kordofan.
Hamid who seemingly will replace the former presidential aide Ibrahim Ghandour and lead the government delegation for future peace talks said they did not agree with Mbeki on a date for the next round of negotiations.
Also, he clearly rejected any discussions with the rebel groups in Darfur region, saying the Doha Document For Peace in Darfur (DDPD) proposes a set of solution for the conflict.
He added they can only sign a security arrangements agreements with them and then the armed groups can join the national dialogue process to discuss any other issues.
Last December, Mbeki adjourned indefinitely talks between the government and two groups, Justice and Equality Movement and Sudan Liberation Movement - Minni Minnawi. The rebels at the time called to open the DDPD and to widen the scope of negotiations.
The presidential aide hailed the efforts of the German government to facilitate peace and national dialogue in Sudan, adding that the American administration does not play any role for a negotiated settlement.
"US administration supports the dialogue within the framework of the Troika countries but Germany pushes strongly (to achieve peace and dialogue in Sudan)," he said when asked about the American involvement in the ongoing efforts for peace in the country.
The chief mediator is expected to meet the rebel groups in Addis Ababa during the upcoming days for a consultations meeting after his recent visit to Khartoum where he held talks with President Omer al-Bashir on 3 August.
(ST)
La Croatie un an après son entrée dans l'UE : le grand exode des médecins
Santé en Croatie : les infirmières tentées par le grand départ
Le grand exode : la Bosnie-Herzégovine se vide de ses habitants
Monténégro : exode obligé pour les jeunes diplômés
Serbie : le grand exode des médecins
Kosovo : l'interminable exode de ceux qui rêvent d'une vie meilleure
Kosovo : le flux de migrants inquiète l'Allemagne
La Croatie un an après son entrée dans l'UE : le grand exode des médecins
Santé en Croatie : les infirmières tentées par le grand départ
Le grand exode : la Bosnie-Herzégovine se vide de ses habitants
Monténégro : exode obligé pour les jeunes diplômés
Serbie : le grand exode des médecins
Kosovo : l'interminable exode de ceux qui rêvent d'une vie meilleure
Kosovo : le flux de migrants inquiète l'Allemagne