Diplomacy & Crisis News

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’hiver de Politique étrangère (n°4/2016). Rémy Hémez, chercheur au Laboratoire de recherche sur la défense (LRD) à l’Ifri, propose une analyse de l’ouvrage d’Adam Baczko, Gilles Dorronsoro et Arthur Quesnay, Syrie. Anatomie d’une guerre civile (CNRS Éditions, 2016, 416 pages).

Ce livre, co-écrit par Gilles Dorronsoro, professeur à l’université Paris 1, et deux doctorants, Arthur Quesnay et Adam Baczko, étudie en profondeur de la guerre civile syrienne. Les auteurs ont réalisé 250 entretiens, pour une bonne partie en Syrie, entre décembre 2012 et janvier 2013, et en août 2013, à une époque où il était encore possible d’accéder à la zone de guerre. Ils distinguent trois étapes dans la révolution syrienne.

La première, en 2011, est une phase de contestation politique essentiellement pacifique. Une telle contestation paraissait improbable pour la plupart des spécialistes, mais le fait même qu’elle ait existé permet de comprendre a posteriori les faiblesses du régime, à savoir son absence de base sociale et son manque de maîtrise des effets politiques du néolibéralisme. Les auteurs mettent également en avant l’influence des printemps arabes, mais aussi les « processus de délibération dans les sphères semi-privées » pour expliquer l’émergence des manifestations. Pour autant, le régime de Bachar Al-Assad ne tombe pas. Les protestataires n’ont pas bénéficié de relais institutionnels, et l’armée syrienne n’a pas joué le rôle de ses homologues tunisienne ou égyptienne. La violence croissante de la répression a, par contre, poussé à la militarisation de la lutte.

Débute alors une phase « d’insurrection unanimiste » (2012-2013), avec un phénomène remarquable par rapport à d’autres guerres civiles : l’absence de territorialisation des groupes armés. L’extension rapide des zones contrôlées par l’insurrection se clôt à l’été 2012, au moment où, pourtant, la guerre semblait perdue pour le régime. Ce dernier a pourtant pu regrouper assez ses forces pour résister et empêcher l’insurrection de prendre les bastions de l’armée.

La prolongation des combats produit notamment l’éclatement et la radicalisation de l’insurrection après 2013. Les auteurs soulignent bien que cette phase est d’abord le reflet de « logiques exogènes », incarnées à la fois par l’intervention de puissances étrangères et par l’implication de deux mouvements transnationaux : Daech et le Parti des travailleurs du Kurdistan (PKK). Ces groupes – qui font l’objet de deux chapitres passionnants – combattent pour la conquête de territoires et l’imposition de modèles politiques radicalement différents.

Les auteurs ne bornent pas leur étude aux combats, à la lutte contre le terrorisme ou aux problématiques humanitaires qui mobilisent la plupart des analystes. Ils s’intéressent à des questions aussi variées que l’administration de la révolution, la mobilisation hors de Syrie, les différents usages de l’islam ou les problématiques économiques.

Clair et bien écrit, cet ouvrage est une référence essentielle pour tous ceux qui s’intéressent au conflit syrien. On regrettera seulement que les informations sur la période post-2013 soient plus parcellaires que celles qui concernent la période 2011-2013. On attend avec impatience les autres travaux de cette équipe, puisque ce livre constitue la première pierre d’un projet d’étude plus large sur les guerres civiles contemporaines.

Rémy Hémez

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(Own report) - The first telephone call between the German chancellor and the US president was flanked by appeals for the EU to close ranks. Following Saturday's call, both parties declared that they would "deepen" their bilateral relations. However, Berlin is preparing to assert its own interests offensively vis-à-vis Russia - also with the EU's help. This is why the EU must finally "close ranks," as German politicians are demanding. On Saturday, on his first foreign visit as German Foreign Minister, Sigmar Gabriel met his Parisian counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault. His vigorous insistence "that Germany and France demonstrate they have common positions on nearly all issues" was also aimed at closing the EU's ranks. While Gabriel was visiting France, the seven southern European countries' heads of states and governments - including the French president - were meeting in Lisbon to determine their own positions, also regarding their economic policy. In view of British Prime Minster Theresa May's recent visit to the USA, observers note that the Brexit is creating "a second geopolitical pole in Europe," and "for Germany, which has become accustomed to speak in the name of Europe, [...] this is not a favorable development."

Founding members of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). (China.org.cn)

The previous Obama Administration has long been opposed to joining the Beijing-led development bank initiative called the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). U.S. concerns over the bank include transparent procurement, environmental and social safeguards, good governance, and additionality—given the existing and wide-ranging operations of the World Bank, International Finance Corporation (IFC), Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

Despite U.S. objections and concerns, China’s $100 billion initiative seems determined in its quest for respectability and prominence. Now it appears that the U.S. will be one of the few major countries (along with Japan) not to back Beijing’s initiative. The Financial Times recently reported around 25 African, European and South American countries are due to join the bank this year, which was founded in January 2016 by 57 shareholder countries. Among the founding members are Singapore, Britain, Australia, France, Germany and Spain.

Following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s comments at the World Economic Forum in Davos, it would seem to some that Beijing has superseded Washington in pushing forward a liberal, globalized order. Beijing is also using the AIIB to further its efforts at soft power. Jin Liqun, the Chinese president of the AIIB recently argued, “China needs to do something that can help it be recognized as a responsible leader.”

In light of the “America First” inauguration speech by U.S. President Donald Trump, and inflammatory rhetoric from his cabinet nominees toward China, it is highly unlikely the new Trump Administration will join any Beijing-led initiative.

Critics say in refusing to join, the U.S. will forfeit any say in how the AIIB is run, including any input on environmental safeguards, transparency on potential corruption. Hopefully, other responsible founding shareholder countries should be able to impose, monitor and enforce protective measures. In addition, some of the AIIB’s nine current projects involve co-financing arrangements with other multilateral banks such as the World Bank, which has its own set of rules to deter unfair play and abuses.

Yet other multilateral banks, such as the World Bank, have been faulted in the past for their association with environmentally questionable and potentially corrupt projects. Despite this potential, and with or without U.S. membership, the AIIB still deserves a chance to offer a new alternative and prove itself to be a viable development finance institution.

The post Beijing’s Development Bank Gains Momentum appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

For several places around the world, 2017 could be a watershed year, as various territorial disputes threaten to boil over amidst a climate of global uncertainty.

Much like fights over territory itself, the concept of territory has disputed roots. It is not uncommon to associate ‘territory’ with ‘terra’ as in terra firma (or terroir to wine connoisseurs). However, some scholars suggests an alternative root—‘terror’. Here, territory belongs to those who are able to instill fear such that those living within its boundaries are obliged to respect the laws and norms of their respective rulers. This is the very core of the Hobbesian concept of sovereignty and gets to the heart of territorial disputes. At the moment, fear may be the more useful concept when evaluating contested territories—fear present in governments, policy makers, and businesses.

More acutely, potentially significant shifts in policy from the incoming Trump administration have created significant ambiguity in the role the United States may play in these disputes. Other challenges have also served to fan the flames in several specific hot spots. Any such shift, from recent elections or other sources, will likely have follow-on effects as states, NGOs, and other actors alter their own positions in response. Below are five territorial disputes that may be exacerbated over the next year.

South China Sea

China claims large portions of the South China Sea. To bolster its position, the Chinese government has built artificial islands to turn a dispute about the ocean into one about land. This was investigated by an international tribunal in the Hague during the summer of 2016. Since then, Washington has taken a relatively cautious approach. However, during a Senate hearing on January 12th, U.S. Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson, made it clear that he believes the Chinese stance to be unacceptable. “You’re going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops, and second, your access to those islands is also not going to be allowed,” he told senators.

Although the official Chinese response was to downplay the significance of this statement, its state run media interpreted Tillerson’s comments more aggressively. An estimated $5 trillion in trade travels through the South China Sea, meaning even a slight disruption can have profound effects on economies and investors across the globe.

Israel and Palestine

The United States has long maintained that it acts as an honest broker in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While this was view has not always been shared by all parties, U.S. policy has remained predictable and stable for nearly 30 years. The incoming Trump administration appears to be signaling a clear and vocal shift.

Since the early 1990’s, the U.S. has generally viewed Israeli settlements as a barrier to furthering the peace process. Furthermore, U.S. policy on retaining its embassy in Tel Aviv, rather than Jerusalem is nearly as old as Israel itself. This may change abruptly with the appointment of David Friedman as U.S. ambassador to Israel. In the past he appears to have diverged from U.S. policy on both issues. It is unclear if this signals a shift in actual policy or if there is simply a stronger voice in the incoming administration to do so. Either way, it is likely to increase uncertainty for Israeli and Palestinian governments, NGOs, and investors approaching key questions in their respective portfolios.

Crimea

Since Russia’s 2014 intervention in Ukraine, global reaction has been near universal condemnation: the EU, US, and others began sanctions soon thereafter. These may have contributed to both the decline in the value of the ruble and Russia’s poor financial performance over the last two years.

On January 15th, 2017 Donald Trump signaled a willingness to lift sanctions in exchange for a nuclear arms deal between the U.S. and Russia. In recent years Russia has been among the three largest oil producing nations. However, sanctions have made it difficult for Moscow to benefit from oil exports; lifting sanctions would likely reverse this. Perhaps more importantly is the exchange of sanctions for a nuclear arms deal, which would further entrench Russia’s territorial claims in Crimea.

The Arctic seafloor

In August 2007, a Russian submarine descended nearly four kilometers (2.5 miles) under the Arctic to plant a flag on the seafloor. As many investors are no doubt aware, the claim is not only a way to gain access to the potentially vast natural resources under the ocean; rather it also has the potential to determine control of shipping lanes as Arctic ice melts.

Since 2015 Russia has attempted to legitimize this claim through UN recognition. However, it was not until August of 2016 that the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf began its evaluation. It is important to note that U.S., Canada, Norway, and Denmark have also made claims in the region.

Russian claims, however, are larger and are more developed than those of other nations. While the UN Law of the Sea governs many of these disputes, the U.S. is the only claimant that is not party to the treaty. Interestingly, the U.S. Department of Defense has urged the Senate to adopt the treaty, so that the U.S. can gain at seat at the table on Arctic (and other) deliberations. With a nearly unprecedented number of former generals set to play civilian roles in the Trump administration, such a shift is perhaps more likely than in years past.

Kashmir

Contested since the inception of India and Pakistan, Kashmir has long been a disputed territory. This turbulent history saw the addition of another sorry chapter in 2016, as unrest increased during the past year. One reason was the death of Burhan Muzaffar Wani—the leader of the Hizbul Mujahideen militant group—during an encounter with Indian military forces: protests erupted in the aftermath of the incident in July. Successive skirmishes have since led to a cycle of protest and violence leaving the territory in an especially volatile position as 2017 begins.

This article was originally published by Global Risk Insights and written by Barton Edgerton.

The post 5 Territorial Disputes to Watch Out for in 2017 appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Commending the Ethiopian Government and humanitarian partners on the response to last year&#39s El Niño drought that left 10.2 million people needing food assistance, United Nations Secretary General António Guterres and UN aid chief Stephen O&#39Brien today said the international community must show &#8220total solidarity&#8221 with country as it faces a new drought.

The United Nations, the African Union (AU) and regional partners today reiterated their call for an immediate cessation of hostilities in South Sudan and urged the parties to ensure an inclusive political process, both in the proposed National Dialogue and in the implementation of the 2015 peace agreement.

The United Nations agencies dealing with global refugee and migration issues today expressed the hope that the United States will continue its strong leadership role and long tradition of protecting those who are fleeing conflict and persecution.

If there is anything we know for sure about Trump, it is that he likes making deals. But is he capable of cutting a good deal with Russia?

A leaked executive order sets up a series of reviews to examine computer security.

Briefing the Security Council on the situation in Somalia, the United Nations envoy for the country noted today that the recently concluded election was a “mirror” to Somalis, showing them the good and the bad regarding how power is exercised, relations between elders, clan power brokers, politicians, business, ordinary citizens, women and men.

DHS has halted refugee interviews, Arab students complain of being barred from re-entry, and lawyers warn visa holders not to leave the country.

The international pledge to eradicate a devastating livestock disease affecting mostly sheep and goats has taken on new urgency in the wake of a mass die-off of a rare Mongolian antelope, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Vague plans for an import tax would shift the cost of the wall to U.S. consumers and hurt key parts of the U.S. economy.

Diplomacy goes digital.

Decrying the anti-Semitism that led to the Holocaust, the international community today remembered millions of people who suffered in the genocide and honoured the survivors who continue to educate future generations about the ills that hatred and discrimination can bring.

A wave of forced resignations of critical staff — with no replacements — is a recipe for disaster.

Mind the (diplomatic) gap.

The head of the United Nations food relief agency today welcomed the progress made by the humanitarian community and the Government of Nigeria in fighting hunger and malnutrition in the West African country’s north-east.

And the worst may be yet to come.

Expressing sadness at the passing of noted rights icon Sir Nigel Rodley, the United Nations human rights wing today recalled the contributions of one of the “best known public faces, and most eloquent voices” of the UN Human Rights Committee.