ELIAMEP

Dr. Thanos Dokos, Director General of ELIAMEP, contributed in the study ‘Defence Budgets and Cooperation in Europe: Developments, Trends and Drivers’. The study was produced in the framework of the project ‘Permanent Monitoring and Analysis of military capabilities and defence sector trends’, managed by a consortium of European think tanks, including ELIAMEP, and funded by the European Defence Agency (EDA).

You can here download the study.

The White Book of ELIAMEP on Foreign Policy, Defence and Security is now available by ‘I.Sideris‘ publications (in Greek). On this occasion, a public event took place on Tuesday 15 March 2016, at 18:30 at the Old Parliament Building (Kolokotroni Square, 13 Stadiou Street, Athens). You can find more information on the Greek version of ELIAMEP website.

The Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP) and the Hellenic American Leadership Council (HALC) issued a joint paper proposing measures to better deal with the refugee crisis. This paper is available here.

The 18th issue of the Middle East-Mediterranean Report deals with the re-integration of non-Muslim societies in the Turkish society. In particular, it explores the role of social media and their impact on multiculturalism.

Director General of ELIAMEP Dr Thanos Dokos wrote an article in Journal of International Politics and Society (Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft Journal) analysing the refugee crisis and presenting five proposals for an effiicent management of the problem. The article is available here.

In an article published in Kathimerini on 13 March 2016 journalist Yannis Palaiologos reports on ELIAMEP’s White Book. The article is available here (in Greek).

Director General of ELIAMEP Dr Thanos Dokos wrote the article ‘Energy Geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean: The Role of Greece’ in the study: Energy Cooperation and Security in the Eastern Mediterranean: A Seismic Shift towards Peace or Conflict? This study was published by Tel Aviv University and the S. Daniel Abrahan Center for International and Regional Studies. You can find here more information.

The Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP) in cooperation with the European Stability Initiative organized on 3rd of March 2016 a roundtable discussion with Mr. Κnaus Gerald, Chairman of European Stability Initiative (ESI) on the theme of “Houdini” Greece? Reflections on Greek options -seen from Berlin, Vienna and Ankara- on the eve of Brussels meeting with Davutoglu.

The discussion was held at ELIAMEP’s offices with the participation of researchers, technocrats and journalists.

The report is available here.

You can read here the article on the EU and the refugee crisis, which was written by Director General of ELIAMEP Dr Thanos Dokos. This commentary was published in the Greek daily Kathimerini on 9 March 2016.

Postdoctoral Fellow of ELIAMEP Dr Dimitris Skleparis commented on the cooperation between the EU and Turkey in the context of the refugee crisis in an interview with TRT World. The interview was given on 8 March 2016. The video is available here.

You can read here the article on the relationship between Greece and the EU, which was written by Professor George Pagoulatos. The commentary was published on 21 February 2016  in the Sunday edition of Kathimerini and is available in Greek.

You can read here the article on choices for Greek foreign policy, which was written by Professor Emeritus and Member of the Board of Trustees of ELIAMEP Theodore Couloumbis. This commentary was published on 21 February 2016 in the Sunday edition of Kathimerini.

The’ Crossing the Mediterranean Sea by Boat’  research team presented the first results of the project in a workshop organised in Brussels on 16 February 2016. Having analysed the case of Kos Dr Angeliki Dimitriadi contributed to the dissemination of findings in front of a policy audience.

You can find here more information.

The most recent issue of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies is now available online. The issue includes a special section on the 20th Anniversary of the Dayton Accords, which ended the war in Bosnia in 1995, and all of these articles are free to access. Also included in the issue are timely pieces on the Common European Asylum System, Islam in the Balkans, and Religiosity in Turkey. You can also find articles on military reform in Albania, Greek-Turkish reconciliation projects, Cyprus in Turkish foreign policy and informal economy in Southeast Europe. A number of these articles are free to access.

Click here to see the whole issue.

The journal is also running an ongoing promotion where all articles related to Bosnia-Herzegovina are free to access through the end of March, through this link only.

Director General of ELIAMEP Dr Thanos Dokos gave an interview on Deutsche Welle focusing on Greece and the refugee crisis. The interview was given on 16 February 2016 and is available here.

In an interview he gave on the Greek newspaper Athens Voice, Director General of ELIAMEP Dr Thanos Dokos discusses whether Greece could be expelled from Schengen Zone. The interview was given on 10 February 2016 and is available here (in Greek).

ELIAMEP participates in a new research project on EU-Turkey relations (FEUTURE) as part of a consortium of 14 universities and think tanks from the EU, Turkey and the neighbourhood. FEUTURE is a three year project funded by Horizon 2020, scientifically coordinated by the IAI and administratively coordinated by the University of Cologne. FEUTURE aims to 1) map dynamics of EU-Turkey relations in terms of underlying narratives and thematic drivers, 2) substantiate a most likely future scenario(s) and assess its implications, 3) draw policy recommendations for EU and Turkey.

ELIAMEP will be leading Work Package 6 on Migration Drivers and it will be engaged in research in WPs on Economic Drivers, Security, Energy and Climate Change.

FEUTURE provides excellence by pursuing an ambitious, inspiring and innovative programme in a three-phased structure of elaboration, exploration and extrapolation. It applies an inter-temporal, inter-disciplinary and international approach by analyzing drivers within six thematic dimensions (politics, security, economics, energy, migration, identity) and across four levels of analysis (EU, Turkey, neighbourhood, global). The elaboration and exploration phases of the project culminate in an extrapolation phase in which FEUTURE integrates new knowledge by substantiating and testing the implications of three ideal-type future scenarios for EU-Turkey relations: conflict, cooperation and convergence.

Funding: European Union – Horizon 2020

Period of Implementation: 2016-2018

Researchers: Angeliki Dimitriadi, Thanos Dokos, Panagiota Manoli, Theodoros Tsakiris

On 5 February, Dr Ioannis Armakolas, ‘Stavros Costopoulos’ Research Fellow & Head of the South-East Europe Programme, travelled to Sofia, Bulgaria to speak on the “Duality of the crisis in Europe: Solidarity and foreign policy to a test.’ Dr Armakolas spoke in the panel that addressed ‘The crisis in the Mediterranean and the European response.’

During the two hour discussion, the panellists examined both the internal and external dimensions of the refugee crisis in Europe, bringing perspectives from Bulgaria, Germany, Greece and Turkey, but also looking more closely at the root causes of the crisis and what actions, or perhaps more appropriately, inactions brought us to where we are today.

Dr Armakolas’ presentation focused on the current state of refugee problem and how the situation has become what it is, the Greek position, both in terms of deficiencies and grievances, as well as the EU shortcomings. He also discussed the implications for the Western Balkans. While discussing possible solutions, he argued that the EU should play a central role but stressed that the current political constellation, both domestic and European, will complicate the possibilities. Additionally, there is a significant risk of Greece being marginalised in an attempt to isolate the problem. However, it is highly likely that potential exclusion of Greece from the Schengen zone will feed fuel to the fire of populism and euro-scepticism, without necessarily addressing the core dimensions of the refugee problem. To move past this, consistent trust building will be necessary among all relevant and responsible actors, including EU institutions, key member states and Turkey.

The event itself was hosted by The European Council on Foreign Relations, Sofia Office and European Debates, an Initiative of the Deputy Prime Minister for European Policies Coordination and Institutional Affairs Ms Meglena Kuneva.

In addition to Dr Armakolas, other speaker analysts were Sinan Ülgen, chairman of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM) in Istanbul, Mattia Toaldo, policy fellow for ECFR’s Middle East & North Africa, and Vessela Tcherneva, ECFR’s Programme Director and Head of ECFR Sofia Office. The European political perspective was presented by Michael Roth, Minister of State for Europe at the German Federal Foreign Office, and Meglena Kuneva, Deputy Prime Minister for European Policies Coordination and Institutional Affairs of Bulgaria.

More information on the event can be found here.

You can read here the article on the new role of NATO in the Aegean, which was written by Director General of ELIAMEP Dr Thanos Dokos. This commentary was published on capital.gr on 12 February 2016.

The mood in the EU since the New Year has shifted from trying to find a European solution to the refugee crisis to seeking a scapegoat. The convenient target has been Greece, the country where the great majority of refugees and migrants have been arriving. After a number of European countries closed their borders, the Commission has now warned Greece to address a number of problems in its refugee registration system or face suspension from the Schengen Agreement.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to open Germany’s doors to refugees was commendable but extremely hard to implement because of the sheer numbers involved. Following on from the terrorists attacks in Paris last November, and with pre-existing Islamophobia in Europe reinforced by the sexual assaults in Cologne, this policy has gradually brought a strong negativity to Europe’s response to the refugee crisis. Disagreements have been especially pronounced in some of the eastern European countries, which have challenged European Council decisions for burden sharing in the re-allocation of refugees arriving in Italy and Greece. Some of these leaders seem to have conveniently forgotten that western Europe did not close its borders to them in 1956 or 1968.

There have no doubt been delays and omissions on the Greek side, caused by the large number of arrivals, the lack of sufficient personnel and equipment, and also by the economic crisis and current weakness of Greek public administration. But there is also a significant lack of trust from Greece due to the fact that out of a pledged 160,000 refugees that were to be relocated in other EU countries, only a few hundred have actually been transferred. Greece obviously cannot host, for longer than a few days, a number of people that could eventually reach 5% or even 10% of its population at a time when there are absolutely no jobs nor the capacity to offer these people even limited social benefits.

Furthermore, it wasn’t Greek policies that caused the conflicts in Syria or in Libya. Instead, it was the policy choices of certain other EU countries that did contribute to the deterioration of the security situation and have led to an increase in the flow of refugees. But this blame game leads nowhere. The priority should be dispersing such dangerous myths and presenting realistic policy recommendations for resolving the problems.

Our policies should be based on the following assumptions:

• The preservation of Schengen, without unjustifiably and unfairly sacrificing any of its members, is very important
• We need to deal with jihadist terrorism and radicalisation in our societies
• Europe has a moral duty to offer asylum to a substantial number of refugees. Unlimited access, however, is impossible, as the EU’s absorption capacity is finite.

What, therefore, are our policy options?

Greece should fulfil its commitments regarding hotspots and the full registration of all incoming refugees and migrants – with the provision of European economic support as well as manpower and equipment. At the same time, it should be crystal clear to all that maritime borders cannot be fully protected without cooperation from neighbours or without the use of force. “Push back” policies applied to small rubber boats filled well beyond capacity will only result to substantially increase the number of people – mostly women and children – drowning in the Aegean. Such policies would be both inhuman and illegal under international law. Greece cannot become a prison for several hundred-thousand irregular migrants, as recently suggested by a senior official from a founding member of the EU. The political, economic, security and, last but not least, human and moral costs involved would be enormous.

A quick end to the fighting in Syria through diplomatic means should be an obvious priority. Including Russia and, if possible, Iran in the process would considerably increase the prospects for an agreement. A well-organised and financially-supported reconstruction and reconciliation process may convince significant numbers of refugees that it’s safe to return home. In the meantime, increased support to Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey should be another important priority. Access to the labour market and the education system would be critical factors in a refugee’s decision on whether to stay in those countries or try to get to Europe. Increasing repatriation rates through agreements between the EU and important countries of origin should be another priority, although such an objective would be extremely difficult to achieve.

We also need various filters to decrease the attractiveness of the “Greek road”. The cooperation of Turkey – not yet visible – is of critical importance. But Ankara needs incentives as well, such as a visa-free regime, which is not expected to cause any significant flow of Turks to EU countries, and economic support. Turkey should also clamp down on traffickers and suspend its own visa-free regime for Moroccans and some other nationalities. The key element, though, would be to establish hotspots on Turkish soil for the direct resettlement of refugees in various EU countries. This would alleviate the pressure on Greece and save many lives in the Aegean.

Though an end to the Syrian drama will reduce the current numbers of asylum-seekers, migration flows caused by economic, environmental or security concerns will remain a major, even critical, challenge for Europe. So for the long term, the creation of a European Coastguard with extensive jurisdiction and better coordination between neighbouring countries, especially in the south, and between security and information agencies (also promoted by the establishment of the European Counter Terrorism Centre) would make an important contribution. Integration policies will also be of critical importance, but substantial challenges should be expected as not all refugees may be capable or even willing to be sufficiently integrated.

Source: Europe’s World