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Jordan
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In May 2008, the U.S. Army’s Communications and Electronics Command (CECOM) chose DRS Technologies, Inc. in Gaithersburg, MD (since acquired by Italy’s Finmeccanica) for the initial phase of the Jordan Border Security Program. The overall system will include Distant Sentry(TM) mobile and fixed surveillance towers that utilize a variety of Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) sensors, communications between the towers and mobile and fixed Command and Control (C2) Centers, and electronic infrastructure, software, and computing systems for the centers themselves. The Iraqi border is reportedly the focus of the JBSP program, but that country’s borders with Syria are also a concern.

A number of other countries are building or have built similar virtual and/or physical systems, from Saudi Arabia along the Iraq border, to India in Kashmir, to Israel along its hostile borders with Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority. Note, however, that these systems are not a panacea. Israel’s high-tech systems did not detect or prevent the cross-border Hezbollah kidnappings that led to the 2006 war in Lebanon, however, and the US GAO has been less than complimentary concerning Team Boeing’s SBInet system along the USA’s southern border.

Contracts & Key Events

June 2/16: A US funded Jordan Border Security Project with the government of Jordan and US contractor Raytheon is entering its final phase . The $100 million program aims to secure the Hashemite Kingdom against infiltrators from the Islamic State and other extremist organizations operating beyond its border with Syria and Iraq. Under the program, Raytheon and Jordanian subcontractors have been deploying and testing the sensor-fused border barriers while, in parallel, training other Jordanian partners to maintain and operate the system. As well as the barriers, patrol paths and watchtowers, the system is integrated with day and night cameras, ground radars, and a full command, control and communications suite. The system will be completed by the end of next year.

Sept 9/08: The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces [PDF] Jordan’s official request to extend their high-tech border monitoring and security program to Increment 2.

The proposed sale to Jordan will include exportable Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) hardware and exportable U.S. military Command and Control application software and hardware, spare and repair parts, support equipment, publications and technical documentation, U.S. Government and contractor technical support, and other related elements of program support. The estimated cost is $390 million, and DRS Corporation in Gaithersburg, MD remains the prime contractor.

The United States Government and contractor representatives will participate in program services and technical reviews during 2008 to 2013. The number of in-country U.S. Government personnel and contractor representatives required to support this program will be determined in joint negotiations as the program proceeds through the development, production and equipment installation phases.

July 15/08: 21st Century Systems, Inc. announces that DRS has picked its High Resolution Situational Awareness (HiRSA) surveillance system with intelligent agent technology, to be part of the JBSP. 21CS release.

April 2/08: The U.S. Army’s Communications and Electronics Command (CECOM) chooses DRS Technologies, Inc. in Gaithersburg, MD for the initial phase of the Jordan Border Security Program. DRS release

Americas

• Raytheon has been awarded a $365.8 million contract for the production of Aegis Weapon System AN/SPY-1D(V) Radar Transmitter Group, Missile Fire Control System MK 99 equipment, and associated engineering services. The contract combines purchases for the US Navy, South Korea, and Japan and contain options that could amount to $423 million. Completion of the contract is expected by October 2022.

Middle East North Africa

• A US funded Jordan Border Security Project with the government of Jordan and US contractor Raytheon is entering its final phase . The $100 million program aims to secure the Hashemite Kingdom against infiltrators from the Islamic State and other extremist organizations operating beyond its border with Syria and Iraq. Under the program, Raytheon and Jordanian subcontractors have been deploying and testing the sensor-fused border barriers while, in parallel, training other Jordanian partners to maintain and operate the system. As well as the barriers, patrol paths and watchtowers, the system is integrated with day and night cameras, ground radars, and a full command, control and communications suite. The system will be completed by the end of next year.

Europe

• Russia has announced that it is developing its own rail gun technology as the first pictures of US efforts made their way to press. The “battlefield meteorite” is capable of firing a projectile at an initial speed of 4,500 miles per hour, piercing seven steel plates, and leaving a 5-inch hole — able to “blow holes in enemy ships, destroy tanks and level terrorist camps.” For Russia, the new weapon will not replace traditional weapons “even in the mid-term perspective,” as much time needs to pass from the first tests to the mass production, especially considering the high price of the production, according to Russian senator Franz Klintsevich.

• Some of the problems surrounding the development of the A400M cargo lifter are “homemade” according to Chief Executive Officer of Airbus Group, Tom Enders. Quoted in German newspaper Bild am Sonntag, Enders said that the current issues in the program could have been avoided by not opting to develop the aircraft’s engine from scratch, but also mentioned the insufficient quality from suppliers. Despite the delays the issues have caused to delivery, Airbus has urged governments to stay the course and not look for alternatives…naturally.

Asia Pacific

• Australia has been cleared for the purchase of SM-2 Block IIIB STANDARD missiles, equipment, and support through Foreign Military Sale (FMS) by the US State Department. Included in the sale are up to 80 STANDARD Missile, SM-2 Block IIIB Vertical Launching Tactical All-Up Rounds, RIM-66M-09 and a potential of up to 15 MK 97 SM-2 Block IIIB Guidance Sections (GSs), and holds an estimate of up to $301 million. The air defense missiles will be used for anti-air warfare test firings during Combat Systems Ship Qualification Trials for the Royal Australian Navy’s three new Air Warfare Destroyers (AWD) currently under construction.

• With plans underway to develop a submarine launched ballistic missile capability to counter North Korean missile threat, South Korean Aegis ships will be installed with new vertical missile launch systems that will allow them to launch the longer range SM-3 and SM-6 ship-to-air missiles. At present, the three King Sejong the Great class destroyers are only able to fire off the SM-2 missiles with a range of 150 Km, but this should increase to a range of 400 Km. Sources say that if the government were to buy 20 SM-3 per ship, it would cost taxpayers $763 million for the 60 units.

• Hindustan Aeronautics Limited’s (HAL) Hindustan Turbo Trainer-40 (HTT-40) has made its maiden flight after much delay. The Indian indigenous trainer will see at least 70 of the aircraft procured by the Indian Air Force despite the service’s preference for the Swiss built Pilatus PC-7 Mark II. Funding for the HTT-40 had been blocked by the Defense Ministry after the IAF claimed that the trainer would be too expensive, too heavy, and that it will not meet their need.

Today’s Video

• HTT-40 Basic Trainer maiden flight:

The concept
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Back in March 2006, BAE Systems received a contract for “design and production of the 32 MJ Laboratory Launcher for the U.S. Navy.” Some hint of what they are talking about can be gleaned from the name. BAE isn’t the only firm that’s working on this program, which the US Navy sees as its gateway to a game-changing technology. The project is an electro-magnetic rail gun, which accelerates a projectile to incredibly high speeds without using explosives.

The attraction of such systems is no mystery – they promise to fire their ammunition 10 or more times farther than conventional naval gun shells, while sharply reducing both the required size of each shell, and the amount of dangerous explosive material carried on board ship. Progress is being made, but there are still major technical challenges to overcome before a working rail gun becomes a serious naval option. This DID FOCUS article looks at the key technical challenges, the programs, and the history of key contracts and events.

Rail Guns: Concept & Technology Developments BAE’s EMRG
gun & ammo mock-up
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As a BAE release put it:

“An electro-magnetic railgun uses electrical energy to accelerate projectiles to extreme velocities. Railguns do not require powders or explosives to fire the round and therefore free magazine space for other mission areas. In addition, electro-magnetic guns provide a highly consistent and uniform explosive charge that gives much greater accuracy.”

The technology involves sending an electric current along parallel rails up and through an iron rod that connects the poles of a magnet, firing its projectile. To put even 32 megajoules (MJ) in perspective, a 2,000 pound object like a Volkswagen “beetle” car, moving at 100 mph, equals about 1 megajoule of energy. The Navy would use much smaller projectiles, of course, which means they’d be accelerated to extremely fast speeds.

Notional naval specifications involved 15-20 kg projectiles, with muzzle energy of 64 MJ, a muzzle velocity of 2,500 m/s (almost Mach 8.5 at sea level), a maximum range in excess of 500 km/ 300 miles, and an impact velocity of 1,600 m/s (around Mach 5.4) when it hit. Even a 33 MJ firing would leave the barrel at hypersonic speed, and reach ranges of about 170 km/ 92 nautical miles. This compares to just 12 nautical miles with conventional 127mm naval guns, though rocket-boosted projectiles like Oto Melara’s Vulcano can reach about 100 km/ 54 nautical miles, at the price of using a larger shell.

After considering the challenges, and the advantages of being able to hold far larger stores of ammunition that doesn’t require hazardous explosives, the US Navy decided that a 32-40 MJ railgun would probably suffice as their goal. The initial target for initial trials of a tactical weapon is about 20 MJ, with an initial range of 50-100 nautical miles, and growth prospects up to 220 nm.

Projectiles with some GPS guidance and maneuvering capacity would turn railguns into precision strike weapons with the power of 155mm shells on land, and could even allow them to be used in air defense roles at sea.

7MJ firing
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Even that goal is difficult. Technically, the biggest challenges are two-fold: The barrel, and the capacitors.

Super-high speed for the fired object = super-high friction in the barrel. The armature also has a tendency to create transitioning, which is a fancy way of saying it creates very hot gas when you move it through the barrel at those speeds. The gun has to be able to take that heat and pressure without deforming, blowing up, or changing in ways that will make the next shot inaccurate.

The other big challenge is capacitors. There were reports that BAE’s delivered gun would see testing delayed, because the Navy would be late in buying 100 capacitors that are big enough to power 32 MJ of muzzle energy. That’s not uncommon for this kind of cutting-edge system, and the rail guns’ cost, the size of the order, and the limited industrial base for key components will all create challenges for the program. The US Office of Naval Research (ONR) now has a separate pulsed power research program, which could solve this problem while offering benefits for laser weapons, and even some ship radars. Estimates place ship power generation requirements at 20-30 MW for even a 32 MJ railgun, in order to fire at its maximum projected rate of 6-10 times per minute.

DDG-1000 concept
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These issues also create practical limitations on what sorts of ships can mount a rail gun. In truth, any platform with sufficient space and power could be configured to mount EMRG weapons. Right now, the power requirements, and the space requirements for electric capacitors that would be big enough to be useful, are they key limiting issues.

The USA’s DDG-51 Arleigh Burke Class destroyers, for example, are hobbled by limited generating capacity. Their 7.5 – 9.0 MW output is already stressed trying to power all of the ship’s existing radars and systems, and even the Flight III ships will only have 12 MW capacity, far below other modern ships which use all-electric systems. Hybrid drive power systems may help them, but the 3 DDG-1000 Zumwalt Class destroyers are going to be all-electric ships, using fully integrated power systems that deliver 78.5 MW to drive propulsion and onboard electronics. That improved generating capacity is why the Zumwalts are most frequently envisaged as the host ships for future EM weapons, like the 64 MJ land-attack weapons that require 40 – 50 MW of generating capacity.

Rail Guns: The US EMRG Program

• July 2012: Hyper Velocity Projectile solicitation for companion effort.
  
• Jan. 2012: 1st 32MJ gun prototype to ONR.
  
• Nov-Dec. 2011: Pulsed power contracts
  
• Oct. 2011: 1,000 US railgun shots
  
• Dec. 2010: 33MJ test shot at Dahlgren
  
• Feb-Apr. 2009: 2nd phase ONR contracts
  
• Mar. 2008: DARPA fires cantilevered railgun “mortar”
  
• Jan. 2008: ONR 10MJ test shot at Dahlgren
  
• Jan. 2007: ONR Electromagnetic Launch Facility dedicated at NSWC Dahlgren
  
• Mar. 2006: Initial ONR 32MJ gun design awards.

Dahlgren test
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The US Navy’s rail gun efforts have been undertaken with more than 1 company, and more than 1 country. Even the program office involves a broad array of organizations. As of February 2007, the US Navy had invested a total of $36 million in this effort, and total expenditures by the end of Phase 1 in 2011 are expected to be around $276 million.

The 32 MJ rail gun passed its planned 2009 review, and the technology was deemed mature enough to continue. EMRG INP Phase I is now expected to end in 2012, with delivery of INP prototypes, which began on Jan 30/12.

If funding is approved for further phases, EMRG INP Phase II would end in FY 2015-16, and will focus on managing heat buildup and rate of fire issues, as it develops the weapon and projectile toward a final design that can fire up to 6-10 rounds per minute, to a distance of 50-100 nautical miles, with growth potential to 220 nautical miles. Test sites that might work for that effort are being scoped out, with White Sands Missile Range, NM, and Army Yuma Proving Ground, AZ as top candidates.

The hope is that the rail gun can switch from a science and technology effort to full research and development under Naval Sea Systems Command in FY 2015, with “sea demos” of a tactical system with 20 MJ of muzzle energy by FY 2019. The Navy would say only that “various platforms are being considered” for those demos. Figures like $25,000 have been bandied about as the per-round cost, but the myriad requirements imposed by the US Navy may make that problematic. If all goes well, fielding would still take several years for contracts, ship refits, testing, training, etc., which means that a deployed railgun would not be expected before 2020.

2025 may be a more likely target if there are program slips, and even that date will require some breakthroughs over the next decade.

EMRG: Industrial Players (click to view full)

The ONR’s EMRG program is part of the Department of the Navy’s Science and Technology investments, and partnerships include people from Boeing, BAE, Charles Stark Draper, General Atomics, the US Department of Energy’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the US Naval Academy, the US Naval Postgraduate School, US Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) PMS-500, Naval Surface Warfare Center’s Carderock and Dahlgren Divisions, and the US Army. Britain is also involved, at a technical evaluator and support level.

The University of Texas at Austin’s Institute for Advanced Technology (IAT) Electromagnetic Systems Division has performed basic research for NRL, at less than 2 MJ muzzle energy. IAT showed off a demonstrator back in 2004. Jane’s reports that the IAT has also devised a common low-cost projectile concept for both naval surface-fire support and army non line-of-sight (NLOS) engagements using an EM rail gun launcher. The projectile has a flight mass of 15 kg and contains either multiple kinetic-energy flechettes (darts), or a smaller number of sub-penetrators made of tungsten. That effort was part of a 2003 US Navy contract worth up to $10 million over 5 years.

At larger scale, Both UAV maker and EMALS electro-magnetic catapult designer General Atomics, and trans-Atlantic defense giant BAE, have been contracted to design and deliver full-scale 32MJ Innovative Naval Prototype (INP) railguns, which are intended to be closer to tactical designs than to a laboratory style launcher. This sort of dual approach is common in research programs, where supporting different design approaches greatly improves the amount learned, and overall odds of success. INP prototypes began arriving for government evaluation in 2012.

Contracts for design & development in earnest began in 2006, and BAE Systems is executing its contracts in conjunction with teammates IAP Research, Inc. in Dayton, OH; and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) in Vienna, VA.

A 2014 contract has hired Raytheon IDS to work on power modules.

EMRG: Parallel Research Low-energy shot
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As part of the EMRG development program, the ONR and Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) co-funded scientists at NRL to build and operate a 6-meter long, 50 mm diameter railgun. Researchers fired the first shot in March 2007.

This and other laboratory railguns, including the one that fired a 33 MJ shot at Dahlgren in December 2010, are a parallel research effort. Contractors may be called in – for instance, BAE built the 33 MJ railgun according to a government Integrated Product Team design – but the results of all test firings are shared program-wide with BAE, General Atomics, and others.

The initial goal of EMRG research efforts was an “instrumented environment” for service officials to better understand and control the inside of the railgun’s barrel, which remains one of the program’s top technical challenges. Additional studies have also been chartered to cover ship integration, the effect of electromagnetic energy on personnel and systems, the potential logistics benefits of having rail gun systems aboard ships, and different types of potential projectiles. Then, as noted above, they must deal with the industrial challenge of acquiring adequate capacitors.

After improving the 6m railgun’s sliding armature and rails, the lab has fired an average of 300 shots per year since 2008. The 1,000th shot tested new ideas of how the armature interacts with the rails, and during the course of firing all 1,000 shots, NRL scientists have experimented with a variety of materials and geometries, trying to correlate that with modeling and simulation work. The gun is dismantled after each firing, to examine all the components, and the rails are sliced up and examined under a microscope to reveal surface damage. That feedback mechanism is the key to progress, creating an accumulated body of knowledge and refined models.

EMRG: Key Contracts & Events FY 2015 – 2016

BAE briefing

June 2/16: Russia has announced that it is developing its own rail gun technology as the first pictures of US efforts made their way to press. The “battlefield meteorite” is capable of firing a projectile at an initial speed of 4,500 miles per hour, piercing seven steel plates, and leaving a 5-inch hole — able to “blow holes in enemy ships, destroy tanks and level terrorist camps.” For Russia, the new weapon will not replace traditional weapons “even in the mid-term perspective,” as much time needs to pass from the first tests to the mass production, especially considering the high price of the production, according to Russian senator Franz Klintsevich.

Nov 17/14: CSBA Paper. The non-partisan CSBA releases “Commanding the Seas: A Plan to Reinvigorate U.S. Navy Surface Warfare.” Their recommendations are wide ranging, including a major shift in US Navy weapons configurations toward higher capacity medium-range air defenses. That would include deployment of 32 MJ railguns for anti-aircraft roles within the 30 nmi zone, alongside greater use of RIM-162 ESSM missiles, and a combination of laser defenses and RAM missiles in the 5-15 nmi zone. This would take place in order to free up vertical launch (VLS) cells for long-range offensive surface attack (LRASM), anti-submarine (new VL-ASROC options: CVLWT on SM-2?), and air-denial (SM-6) weapons.

Reader may be puzzled that a gun with a range of up to 100 nmi would have such a short intercept range. The issue is the limited maneuverability of the guided railgun round, which in turn forces closer shots that reduce incoming missiles’ maneuvering time. Anti-ship ballistic missiles are easier despite the near-vertical shot required, and are likely to be reliably attacked at 20-30 nmi. Supersonic cruise missiles may be more difficult at that range, where they could have 15-20 seconds to execute maneuvering programs, but they become steadily more vulnerable to EMRG fire as engagement range shrinks.

The biggest challenge to these recommendations is the low power generation capacity on board the USA’s CG-47 cruisers and DDG-51 destroyers, which is to say almost all of the US Navy’s high-end ships. Even a 32 MJ railgun requires at least 15-30 MW of onboard power generation, which is well above even proposed DDG-51 Flight III ships (12 MW) from 2017 onward. Other countries have moved their ship designs toward all-electric configurations, which is why smaller Spanish and Australian Aegis frigates sit at 40+ MW, but retrofits of existing 1980s-era American designs would be very expensive.

For the US Navy, this conundrum forces EMRG fits on ships like the LCS/ SSC frigates, or even the JHSV transport. That can be good, if it spreads American naval defenses among more platforms, but it also yanks LCS and JHSV ships away from their planned missions, which must then be offloaded onto other ships. For 64 MJ railguns, which require 40 – 50 MW capacity, the DDG-1000 Zumwalt Class battlecruisers are the USA’s only realistic option at present. Sources: CSBA, “Commanding the Seas: A Plan to Reinvigorate U.S. Navy Surface Warfare” (incl. full PDF) | USNI, “CSBA Recommends New Course for U.S. Navy Surface Forces”.

FY 2013 – 2014

GA “Blitzer” video

July 8/14: The US Navy publicly unveils both BAE and General Atomics’ railgun designs, displayed but not mounted aboard the deck of the USNS Millinocket JHSV ship at Naval Base San Diego. Rear Adm. Matthew Klunder gives a current figure of about $25,000 per round, but the price for the final guided round remains to be seen. Sources: San Diego 6 TV, YouTube segment and “Navy unveils prototype railguns”.

June 27/14: Power. Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems in Tewksbury, MA receives a $33.2 million modification to previously awarded cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for research and development activities associated with integrated power systems power load modules to be used for electromagnetic railgun pulse power containers, and for the fabrication and testing of prototypes.

$8.5 million in FY 2014 USN RDT&E budgets is committed immediately. Work will be performed in Tewksbury, MA, and is expected to be complete by December 2016. US NAVSEA in Washington, DC manages the contract (N00024-12-C-4223).

April 7/14: Experiment: Railgun. The US Navy plans to use JHSV 3 Millinocket as a test platform for one of its newest weapons in 2016: a 32MJ rail gun that can fire projectiles about 100 miles at Mach 7 speeds. JHSV was picked as the trial platform because it has the space to carry the large system on its deck and in its cargo bay. The gun itself isn’t unusually large, but once you throw in the capacitors for power storage, any additional power needs, extensive maintenance tools and parts, and ammunition, it adds up fast. Rolling and bolting that onto a JHSV is much easier than cutting a warship open, and the trial underscores JHSV’s usefulness as a concept testbed.

On the weapon’s side of the equation, ONR Chief Rear Admiral Matthew Klunder touts the railgun’s economic benefit, as well as its military edge in extending the bombardment range of naval guns and the number of rounds on board. It’s true that $25,000 for a defensive railgun shot against incoming missiles is orders of magnitude better than a RIM-116 RAM ($900,000) or RIM-162 Evolved SeaSparrow Missile ($1.5 million), assuming the unproven assumption of equal effectiveness. One must also compute operating and maintenance costs over the railgun’s lifetime, however, which are going to be far higher than they would be for an All-Up-Round missile in its canister. The JHSV tests will offer some early data on the system’s robustness under trial conditions at sea, and that cost data point could end up being as valuable as any weapon performance data.

Klunder says that actual integration on a warship wouldn’t take place until 2018. That would only happen if the JHSV test ends up being nearly perfect, so take that date with a spray of salt. Sources: Reuters, “U.S. Navy to test futuristic, super-fast gun at sea in 2016”.

Jan 16/14: Testing. USN Chief of Naval Research Rear Adm. Matthew Klunder says the Phase 2 (q.v. July 1/13) rail gun tests are going well. From DefenseTech, “Navy Rail Gun Showing Promise”:

“Klunder expressed enthusiasm that the rail gun successfully went 8-for-8 in a recent test firing at White Sands Missile Range, N.M. “It went exactly where we told it to go with good telemetry,” he explained.”

Jan 10/14: DDG 51 Flight IV. The current US Navy program manager for DDG 51 acquisition, Capt. Mark Vandroff, says that the service has begun to look at the requirements for a “Flight IV” destroyer, which wouldn’t begin service until the 2030s. Rail guns and lasers are part of the early conversation, and it isn’t just because they’re cool:

“Some of the thinking involves senior leaders talking about getting on the other side of the cost curve. Right now if someone shoots a missile at us, we shoot a missile back at them. The missile we shoot at them cost about as much, if not more, than the missile that got shot at us. They are burning money and we are burning money to defend ourselves…. The down side is this kind of technology does not exist today and even if it does, you have to look at what kind of maritime platform could you put it on and what that would look like. When that technology starts to get close to mature, then you will see the Navy start to figure out what it has to do in order to field that technology.”

Step 1: find a way to get a lot more power generation into the DDG 51 hull, or switch hulls. Converting DDG 51 ships to hybrid-electric drive would be a minimum requirement, and even that may not be enough. If the Navy needs alternatives, HII is touting their LPD-17 Flight II amphibious assault hull as a future air and missile defense cruiser platform. Looking downscale, Littoral Combat Ships may not have much else, but they do have plenty of onboard power, plus free space for capacitors etc. Sources: Military.com, “Future Destroyers Likely to Fire Lasers, Rail Guns” | USNI, “In Pursuit of the U.S. Navy’s Next Surface Combatant”.

Nov 7/13: HVP Phase 1A. BAE Systems announces a $33.6 million Office of Naval Research (ONR) contract to fund Phase 1A of the Hyper Velocity Projectile (HVP) project. Recall (q.v. July 19/12) that its goal is a 62 cm long guided subcaliber saboted round, compatible with both standard Mk-45 155mm naval gun systems and future 20 – 32MJ railgun systems.

BAE Systems is working with the United Technologies conglomerate and Custom Analytical Engineering Systems (CAES), with its initial phase to be completed by June 2014. Work will be carried out by BAE Systems in Minneapolis, MN; UTC Aerospace Systems in Vergennes, VT; and CAES in Flintstone, MD.

HPV projectile award

July 1/13: INP Phase 2. BAE Systems announces that the Office of Naval Research awarded them a $34.5 million contract for the development of a EM railgun under the Navy’s Innovative Naval Prototype (INP) program.

This marks the transition to the program’s Phase 2. Work is starting now, with initial prototypes to be delivered in 2014.

INP Railgun Phase 2

June 7/13: Railgun Ashore? The House Armed Services Committee report [PDF] about the NDAA 2014 states that:

“[…] the committee is aware that the Department [of Defense] has established a new effort within the Strategic Capabilities Office in the Office of the Secretary of Defense to leverage the Navy’s program to explore the development a land-based railgun. As noted in the committee report (H. Rept. 112–479) for the National Defense Authorization Act of Fiscal Year 2013, the committee is interested in the potential utility in accelerating some electromagnetic railgun efforts for land-based area defense.

The committee finds these developments encouraging, and urges the Director, Missile Defense Agency [MDA] to examine these activities in order to determine their potential application, if they can provide additional capability, to broader ballistic missile defense missions.”

This didn’t just spring out the committee members’ minds, as the Navy’s 2014 budget request asks for [PDF] $130 million, followed by another $120 million in FY15, to conduct a Land Based Rail Gun (LBRG) experiment in 2015 with a 20 Mega Joule (MJ) railgun at Wallops Island test range, VA. Using railguns on land lifts the power bottleneck faced by ships, which are already straining under increasing demand for electricity from onboard radars and other systems.

Oct 9/12: GA into testing. ONR announces that they’ve begun evaluating General Atomics’ Advanced Containment Launcher prototype in Dahlgren, VA. EM Railgun program manager Roger Ellis would say only that:

“It’s exciting to see how two different teams are both delivering very relevant but unique launcher solutions… We’re evaluating and learning from both prototype designs, and we’ll be folding what we learn from the evaluations into the next phase of the program.”

See: ONR | General Atomics.

FY 2012 RADM Carr
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July 19/12: Long-range shells. The ONR issues an R&D solicitation for guided projectiles, under Long Range Broad Agency Announcement for Navy and Marine Corps Science and Technology, ONRBAA12-001. From “Hyper Velocity Projectile (HVP) Research,” Solicitation #12-SN-0017:

“The Hyper Velocity Projectile (HVP) program is intended to design, develop, fabricate, test and demonstrate a guided hypervelocity projectile compatible with Mk-45 155mm gun systems and future 20 – 32MJ railgun systems. Due to Mk 45 interface requirements, the HVP shall be a 62 cm long subcaliber saboted round. Desired total airframe mass is in the 10-15 kg range. Designs and technologies must survive and perform through harsh environments; 20,000 – 30,000 G’s [sic] launch acceleration and (for railgun) thermal conditions intrinsic with sea level, 2 km/s guided flight. Desired ranges include current capability of the 5″ Mk 45 Mod 4 gun and ranges in excess of 30 nmi. Additional range would be expected out of higher muzzle energy railguns.

The ONR HVP program will address technologies in the areas of high G launch survivability (miniaturized high-G tolerant guidance electronics and control actuation systems, militarized GPS receivers, and compact fuzing – safe & arm), high density electronics packaging and miniaturization , advanced energetics, and aero-thermal management (lightweight-high strength composite materials, heat resistive-thermal managing materials)… A multistage program leading to full-up live fire demonstrations of the technology is anticipated… ending at the end of FY17 to deliver and demonstrate HVP test articles in a realistic environment (TRL 6).”

HVP isn’t the first such project. The ERGM project spent $600 million from 1996-2008, simply trying to create an ultra-long range, GPS-guided projectile for the 127mm/ 62 caliber guns on new US Navy ships. Even so, there’s good reason to think that the basic goal of ultra-long range guided shells for standard naval guns is achievable. Italy’s Oto Melara has Vulcano ultra long range, GPS-guided shells in development for 127/64 and 76/62 naval guns, and BAE and Lockheed Martin are building similar 155mm shells for the new DDG 1000 destroyers.

As often happens in the USA, HVP seems to be trying to do too much. Yes, the pure research areas mentioned could potentially apply to Naval Surface Fire Support, Cruise Missile Defense, and Anti-Surface Warfare. On the other hand, conflating the unique requirements of railguns with the more pedestrian firing environment of standard 5″ naval guns seems like a recipe for over-engineered and overly-costly test solutions, or for technical failure. Adding new requirements like re-targeting in flight, and multiple mission types with their own unique challenges, stacks the deck even further against creating a transferable, mission-ready success. An R&D project might be better off beginning more modestly, and demonstrating solid results in one much-needed area like naval fire support, before branching out. FBO.gov | WIRED Danger Room.

HVP projectile RFP

Feb 7/12: The US Office of Naval Research offers an update:

“Navy planners are targeting a 50- to 100-nautical mile initial capability with expansion up to 220 nautical miles… The prototype demonstrator incorporates advanced composites and improved barrel life performance resulting from development efforts on the laboratory systems located at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and NSWC-Dahlgren… The industry demonstrator will begin test firing this month… In the meantime, the Navy is pushing ahead with the next phase of the EM Railgun program to develop automatic projectile loading systems and thermal management systems to facilitate increased firing rates of… six to 10 rounds per minute. BAE Systems and General Atomics also are commencing concept development work on the next-generation prototype EM Railgun capable of the desired firing rate.”

Jan 30/12: Prototype delivery. BAE’s team delivers its prototype 32MJ railgun to the ONR. Source.

Pulsed power. US NAVSEA in Washington, DC issues a pair of contracts for R&D into “integrated power systems power load modules design and pulsed power loads for future surface combatants.” It’s part of USN ONR’s Capacitors for Pulsed Power Applications Program (q.v. Additional Readings).

Here’s the thing: rail guns need a huge burst of power for their shot, but ships produce steady loads. To make that combination work, a power system needs to be able to build up, store, and then release power in large bursts. Lasers have this issue to a lesser extent, and so do some radar modes. That’s why solving this issue could solve several problems, if the “pulse forming networks” can offer flexible energy levels and durations for their power bursts.

Dec 9/11: BAE Systems Land and Armaments in Minneapolis, MN wins an $11.7 million cost-plus-fixed-fee R&D contract. Work will be performed in Minneapolis, MN (57%), San Diego, CA (33%), and Dayton, OH (10%), and is expected to be complete by December 2016. $200,000 will expire at the end of the current fiscal year, on Sept 30/12. This contract was competitively procured via a Broad Agency Announcement, with 7 proposals received by US Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington, DC (N00024-12-C-4221).

Nov 2/11: General Atomics in San Diego, CA wins a $12.3 million cost-plus-fixed-fee R&D contract for “integrated power systems power load modules design and pulsed power loads for future surface combatants.” The initial effort will include further refinement of General Atomics’ unique approach to the concept, in order to meet a set of notional performance expectations developed in conjunction with the Navy.

Work will be performed in San Diego, CA, and is expected to be complete by October 2016. $200,000 will be provided at time of contract award, and will expire at the end of the current fiscal year, on Sept 30/12. This contract was competitively procured via a broad agency announcement, with 7 proposals received by (N00024-12-C-4222).

Capacitor & Power system development

Oct 31/11: Rear Admiral Nevin Carr, Chief of Naval Research, discusses directed energy and hypersonics, at the 2011 Surface Navy Association (SNA) West Coast Symposium in San Diego, CA. He notes that railguns can now shoot hundreds of times, instead of 5-10 times, and are evolving towards more reasonable energy requirements. The current plan is to be able to conduct an at-sea firing by 2019, with a 20 MJ gun, from a destroyer.

Carr adds that the original 64 MJ requirement has been changed. While the 220 miles of range would be nice, ONR has decided that the 33 MJ version with 110 mile range is good enough. They see the first operational railguns capping out at 33-40 MJ. USN biography | YouTube.

Oct 31/11: 1,000 shots. NRL scientists hit a materials research milestone, with 1,000 railgun firings from laboratory-scale systems. Roger Ellis, ONR’s Electromagnetic Railgun (EMRG) program officer adds this interesting observation:

“When you couple what we’re seeing in testing with what we’re seeing in modeling and simulation, it results in some interesting barrel shapes that you wouldn’t intuitively think about. Railgun barrels don’t necessarily have to be round as in most conventional gun designs.”

FY 2009 – 2011 Dec 10/10 shot
(click to view video)

Dec 10/10: 33MJ shot. The ONR fires a world-record 33-megajoule shot of their Electromagnetic Railgun, at Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division.

While this is short of the 64 MJ goal, a 33 MJ shot would still propel a projectile to Mach 5, and a range of about 110 miles. It’s also about 3 times the energy of the last record firing, in January 2008. US ONR | Fox News.

April 15/09: General Atomics in San Diego, CA received $22.1 million for a cost plus fixed fee task order under a previously awarded contract (N00014-06-D-0056, #0005) for technology development and design of an EM Rail Gun. The firm is also the main contractor for the Navy’s EMALS electro-magnetic catapult for aircraft carriers, which uses similar principles to handle a different task.

Work will be performed in San Diego, CA, and is expected to be complete in February 2012. The contract was competitively procured under Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) 05-003 by the Office of Naval Research in Arlington, VA.

Feb 9/09: BAE Systems Land and Armament LP in Minneapolis, MN received a $21.3 million delivery order under a previously awarded contract (N00014-06-D-0046) to research and develop an Advanced Containment Launcher for an Electromagnetic Rail Gun. BAE’s follow-on release describes the 30-month contract as:

“…detailed design and delivery of an Innovative Naval Prototype (INP) Railgun… including a composite launcher (barrel) that will be demonstrated in 2011.”

BAE Systems is partnered with IAP Research, and SAIC. Work will be performed in Minneapolis, MN and is expected to be complete in September 2011. This contract was competitively procured under Office of Naval Research Broad Agency Announcement 05-003.

Railgun INP prototypes

Feb 3/09: UTexas. The Institute of Advanced Technology at University of Texas, Austin received a $9.1 million cost plus fixed-fee contract to perform railgun assessment. Founded in 1990, IAT Electromagnetic Systems is an autonomous research unit tasked with aiding the U.S. Army and Navy with rail gun technology. IAT showed off a technology demonstrator at the 24th Army Science Conference (ASC 2004).

Work will include laboratory testing and scalability between small and medium scale launchers, pulsed power assessment, and conceptual prototyping and assessment of electromagnetic railgun contractor development items including advanced containment launcher and pulsed power systems. This contract contains options, which is exercised, would bring the contract value to $12.1 million.

Work will be performed in Austin, TX and is expected to be complete Jan 31/12. Contract funds in the amount of $10,000 will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. This contract was competitively procured under the Office of Naval Research Broad Agency Announcement Number 08-001 (N00014-09-C-0187).

FY 2007 – 2008 2008-1-31: Fire!
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March 18/08: EM Mortars? DARPA’s full-scale, fully cantilevered electromagnetic railgun successfully launches a projectile with similar size and weight a 120mm mortar, at speeds of 430 meters-per-second. That’s faster than the 101-318 meter/second speed of regular mortar firings, which translates into greater energy and range.

The 120mm mortar is an inherently simple system, whose virtues include the reliability that simplicity delivers. That’s why the US Marines are relying on a 120mm mortar as their EFSS system. The extra energy in DARPA’s system, and accompanying range, may offer the revolutionary potential for artillery gun range in a mortar-size weapon. The flip side is that a rail gun’s greater complexity and inherent fragility introduces issues of cost, reliability, and dependence on the system’s energy source.

DARPA says that its 2.4m, 950 kg railgun is currently the largest caliber supersonic railgun in the world. It is certainly the first-ever successful full scale cantilevered railgun to shoot a mortar-size projectile. The cantilevered design is used to change aiming on a shot-to-shot basis, just as a regular mortar does. Built-in muzzle shunts quickly extinguish muzzle arc, and reduce muzzle flash. DARPA release [PDF]

Jan 31/08: 10MJ firing. Another step forward. ONR successfully conducted a record-setting firing of an electromagnetic rail gun at the Naval Surface Warfare Center in Dahlgren, VA, firing at 10.64MJ (megajoules) with a muzzle velocity of 2,520 meters per second. Let’s see: 3,600 seconds per hour, 0.62 miles per kilometer… yes, that’s over 5,600 miles per hour. The speed of sound is about 760 mph at sea level, so it’s about Mach 7.4.

Note the ‘transitioning’ plasma visible in the high speed camera photo, which offers some illustration of what the material design crew is up against. Navy release.

Fire! Record 10+ MJ shot

July 30/07: Envisioneering, Inc. in Alexandria, VA received a sole source $9.2 million cost-plus-fixed-fee, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for systems analysis, system/component design and development, system test and evaluation, data collection and analysis in support of the US Navy’s Directed Energy and Electric Weapons Program Office (PMS-405).

Work will be performed in King George, VA (92%); Kauai, Hawaii (6%); and Kirkland, WA (2%), and is expected to be complete by July 2012. The contract was not competitively procured, as “Envisioneering is the only known source with the knowledge and technical capability to provide the services and support required to meet milestones and deadlines.” The solicitation was, however, posted on the world wide web via Navy Electronic Commerce Online by the Naval Surface Warfare Center in Crane, IN (N00164-07-D-8900).

Jan 19/07: NAVSEA release:

“A new Electromagnetic Launch Facility (EMLF) was dedicated at NAVSEA Surface Warfare Center (NSWC) Dahlgren during a ceremony hosted by the ONR Jan. 16, in which a high speed projectile pierced the ceremonial ribbon… The mission of the Electromagnetic Rail Gun (EMRG) program is to develop the science and technology necessary to design, test, produce, and install a revolutionary 64 Mega Joule (MJ) EMRG aboard U.S. Navy ships in the 2020 – 2025 timeframe. The current phase of the program extends through 2011.”

FY 2005 – 2006 32MJ lab gun
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July 6/06: BAE reported the next phase as well: a $9.3 million contract from the ONR to develop technologies and preliminary design for an Electro-Magnetic (EM) railgun prototype.

March 3/06: BAE Armament Systems Division in Minneapolis, MN receives a contract for the “design and production of the 32 MJ Laboratory Launcher for the U.S. Navy.” It is a $5.5 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for the design and production of the 32 MJ Laboratory Launcher for the U.S. Navy. Work will be performed in Minneapolis, MN (66%) and Dayton, OH (37%), and is expected to be complete by August 2007. The contract was competitively procured and advertised via Federal Business Opportunities site, with three offers received. The Naval Surface Weapons Center, Dahlgren Division in Dahlgren, VA issued the contract (N00178-06-C-1008).

It seems likely that General Atomics also received a contract to this end (vid. April 15/09 entry), but it may not have initially reached the $5 million threshold to qualify for public announcement.

Initial Railgun design contracts

April 18/05: The University of Texas at Austin’s Institute for Advanced Technology (IAT) Electromagnetic Systems Division showed off its electromagnetic rail gun (RailGun) technology demonstrator at the 24th Army Science Conference (ASC 2004).

Founded in 1990, IAT Electromagnetic Systems is an autonomous research unit tasked with helping the U.S. Army and Navy develop rail gun technology. For full details, see the Defense Review article “IAT Electromagnetic Systems Division Developing Rail Gun Tech for U.S. Military.”

Additional Readings

Readers with corrections, comments, or information to contribute are encouraged to contact DID’s Founding Editor, Joe Katzman. We understand the industry – you will only be publicly recognized if you tell us that it’s OK to do so.

DID thanks Roger Ellis, ONR EM Railgun program officer, for his assistance with this article.

Program & Technologies

• US Office of Naval Research – EM Railgun Fact Sheet [PDF]. 2007 capture.

• Naval Research Advisory Committee – (February 2004) – Electromagnmetic (EM) Gun Technology Assessment [PDF format]. See also their terms of reference [PDF] .

• ONR – Capacitors for Pulsed Power Applications Program.

• FBO.gov (July 19/12, #12-SN-0017) – Special Program Announcement for 2012 Office of Naval Research Research Opportunity: “Hyper Velocity Projectile (HVP) Research [sic].

• General Atomics – Railgun programs, with sub-links for their Blitrzer railgun and EM Pulse Power Systems. An earlier version said: “GA is currently supporting the development of advanced pulsed power, launcher, and projectile technology as part of the ONR Railgun Innovative Naval Prototype Program. In addition, GA is pursuing opportunities within the Navy to transition similar technology for Naval Ship Defense and for the development of ‘Cold Electromagnetic Missile Launch’ technology.”

News & Views

• CSBA (Nov 17/14) Commanding the Seas: A Plan to Reinvigorate U.S. Navy Surface Warfare (incl. full PDF). Sees railguns playing an important medium-range anti-aircraft role, and notes the precise power capacity issues involved.

• National Defense (November 2007) – Electric Guns on Navy ships: Not Yet on The Horizon. “In laboratories, scientists have demonstrated the art of the possible: muzzle energy of 9 megajoules, currents of three million amps and velocities close to the Navy’s specifications, says Zowarka. But boosting the muzzle energy from 9 to 64 megajoules, the amps from 3 million to 6 million and the bore size from four inches in diameter to six or seven inches remain a challenge… Major research efforts are focused on materials to extend the bore life of the gun to allow multiple firings of the high-speed projectiles… Anything traveling at thousands of miles an hour will tear raw metal… On top of the research challenges, there are engineering difficulties. “You have to get the current there, and then you have to manage these tremendous forces between the rails…”

• Popular Mechanics (Nov 14/07) – World’s Most Powerful Rail Gun Delivered to Navy. “While the 32-MJ LRG should start firing soon, it could take another 13 years for a 64-megajoule system to be built and deployed on a ship… Effective rail guns will require a major breakthrough in materials between now and 2020, to keep the guns themselves from being shredded by each high-velocity barrage.”

• Inside the Navy (Feb 2/07) – Navy ‘Rail Gun’ Moves Forward.

• Jane’s Naval Intelligence (June 17/03) Naval warfare at the speed of light.

HPT-32
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India’s stalled defense procurements have become an international joke, but they’re not funny to front-line participants. The country’s attempts to buy simple artillery pieces have become infamous, but their current problem with trainer aircraft is arguably a more significant wound.

You can’t produce pilots properly without appropriate training, but the IAF’s fleet of 114 locally-designed HPT-32 Deepak basic trainers has been grounded since August 2009, because they aren’t seen as reliable enough or safe enough to fly. Since then, equally aged HJT-16 Kiran jets are being used for both Stage-I and Stage-II fighter training. That yawning gap has added urgency to a replacement buy, but progress has been predictably slow. With its high-end Hawk AJT jet trainer deals behind them after 20+ years of effort, can the IAF take the next step, and plug the hole in the middle of its training? In May 2012, it did.

India’s Trainer Choice(s) Basic Training: Pilatus Wins the Competition IAF PC-7 MkII
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By June 2011, Switzerland’s Pilatus had emerged as the IAF’s preferred basic choice with their PC-7 Mark II, which is in wide international use with over 20 air forces. The PC-7 Mark II, introduced in 1994, adds all of the avionics advances and some airframe changes from the P-9M, but uses a very cost-efficient Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-25C engine. The engine provides less power, in return for a lower price and lower operating costs. Ejection seats, an anti-g system, and On-Board Oxygen Generating System (OBOGS) help round out its capabilities; and the plane is still touted as being suitable for aerobatics, tactical flying, and night flying. All of these things mark a sharp step up from the HPT-32.

Overall, Pilatus has touted the PC-7 as a trainer that can cover both basic and intermediate training roles, at very low operating costs. In recent years they’ve backed off a bit, emphasizing the PC-9M and PC-21 turboprops as their advanced trainer offerings. On the other hand, the PC-7 Mark II’s original South African customer uses it as the sole lead-in to the same Hawk Advanced Jet Trainer that India flies. Like the HPT-32s, PC-7s can be armed, and this has been done by a number of customers.

To win, Pilatus beat Korean Aerospace’s KT-1 and Hawker Beechcraft’s T-6C in the finals. Embraer’s EMB-314 Super Tucano armed trainer, Finmeccanica’s M-311 jet trainer, and Grob’s G-120 TP didn’t make it past the technical trials.

In May 2012, the IAF has signed a contract to import 75 PC-7s from Pilatus in fly-away condition, and the planes were formally inducted into the IAF in February 2013. Some Indian pilots trained on the PC-7s in Switzerland, then returned to India as trainers themselves.

A HAL proposal for a locally developed “HTT-40 trainer” also lost out at some point in this process, but it has been revived under political pressure as a developmental program. The problem, as a May 2013 article in the Daily Mail explains, is timing:

“As per the project report submitted by the company in 2011, it had promised to deliver two aircraft by 2019 and 10 by 2021. At this rate, the IAF can begin training on home-built [HTT-40s] only by 2022…. The Defence Acquisition Council had mandated IAF to exercise the [38-plane option] clause to buy more aircraft from the foreign vendor only if HAL’s HTT-40 does not take off before the delivery of first Pilatus PC-7. With first Pilatus arriving in February and HTT-40 nowhere in sight, the IAF will go for 38 more PC-7s.”

HAL wants the government to mandate the HTT-40 as the IAF’s only trainer option beyond the initial 75 PC-7s, but the IAF disagrees vigorously, citing timing problems, training volume needs, and HAL’s known problems handling their workload on other programs. Even so, state-owned HAL has managed to block the intended February 2013 approval for the PC-7 contract’s 38-plane option clause. India’s government continues to dither over any means of moving forward, whether that means buying from Switzerland and moving on, having HAL build 106 PC-7s under license, or mandating the HTT-40.

Intermediate Trainers: HAL’s IJT HJT-36 IJT
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India’s current intermediate training curriculum rests on a dwindling stock of HJT-16 Kiran jets. They were first introduced in 1968, though another 65 Kiran Mk.IIs entered service beginning in 1985. They serve as the bridge between existing basic flight trainers, and the IAF’s advanced Hawk Mk.132s.

HAL received a 1999 contract to develop the HJT-36 Sitara as an intermediate trainer successor, but the firm has missed its 2007 in-service date very badly, and a number of crashes have raised concerns. HAL is contracted to deliver 12 limited series production aircraft and 75 production IJTs, but the Sitara still hasn’t achieved initial certification as of late 2013, and remains saddled with serious aerodynamic issues.

The question is whether the plane can enter service by 2015, and whether it will be safe if it does. A mid-2014 admission that major redesigns are required casts serious doubt on both requirements.

The PC-7 fleet performs the intermediate training role in other countries, and the threat of choking the IAF’s pilot training pipeline may be crippling enough to force a potential opportunity. As of mid-2014, the IAF is floating a foreign RFI for an intermediate trainer that can also serve in counter-insurgency roles. The IAF is already flying one – but India has a long political history of pursuing indigenous programs well past the point of crisis.

Contracts & Key Events 2014 – 2016

HAL admits IJT must be redesigned; IAF looks abroad for IJT options; PC-7s noticeably improving IAF training. PC-7 Mk.II: unfrozen
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June 2/16: Hindustan Aeronautics Limited’s (HAL) Hindustan Turbo Trainer-40 (HTT-40) has made its maiden flight after much delay. The Indian indigenous trainer will see at least 70 of the aircraft procured by the Indian Air Force despite the service’s preference for the Swiss built Pilatus PC-7 Mark II. Funding for the HTT-40 had been blocked by the Defense Ministry after the IAF claimed that the trainer would be too expensive, too heavy, and that it will not meet their need.

Aug 5/14: IJT. Defence Minister Shri Arun Jaitley makes it official, in response to a Rajya Sabha question:

“HAL, which has been developing the Intermediate Jet Trainer (IJT), as a replacement for the Kiran aircraft, has not so far been able to resolve critical wing and airframe Design & Development issues related to stall and spin.

In order to meet the emergent situation created due to inordinate delay in the IJT project, IAF has already initiated the process for extending the technical life of the Kiran aircraft. The IAF has also initiated action to look for alternate options for the IJT.”

See March 30/14 for that RFI. Sources: India MoD, “Replacement of Intermediate Trainer Planes of the IAF”.

July 5/14: IJT redesign. Shiv Aroor’s exclusive report says that HAL is looking for foreign help to redesign the HJT-36 Sitara, and offers some excerpts from the RFI:

“The HJT-36 aircraft presently weighs around 4150 Kg in its Normal Training Configuration…. HAL is envisaging achieving maximum possible weight reduction / optimisation for the aircraft…. The design of the above need to be revisited, analyzed and the scope for weight reduction / optimization studied while ensuring the required strength, stiffness & fatigue criteria…. Towards this HAL is looking forward for partnership / technical assistance / consultancy from a well experienced airframe design house…. This weight reduction / optimization study must be comprehensive, encompassing all the Structure, Mechanical Systems & Electrical Avionics Systems.”

In light of this call for help, it becomes very doubtful that the plane can enter service by 2015 – a date that would already be 8 years late. Indeed, it’s legitimate to question whether the design will ever meet the IAF’s criteria. Whether or not the IAF opens another competition (q.v. March 30/14) will be a political decision. Sources: Livefist, “EXCLUSIVE: Totally Cornered, HAL To Re-design Lumbering Intermediate Trainer”.

May 8/14: PC-7. Pilatus explains how important the PC-7 Mk.IIs have been to India. The translation needs a bit of work, but the gist is very clear. Available, reliable aircraft make a huge difference to pilot training quality:

“Due to the excellent endurance, low maintenance and reliability of the PC-7 MkII aircraft, the Indian Air Force supported by Pilatus has been able to maintain a very high availability rate on the flight line since the introduction of the new platform. Thanks to this, the Indian Air Force is already planning to advance their plans to enhance the number of student pilots by 150% from the next course…. Furthermore, the PC-7 MkII has enabled the Indian Air Force to increase the basic training syllabus in terms of flight hours by 220% compared to the old syllabus and increase the solo content from only 1 to 14 sorties.”

So far, India has taken delivery of 35 PC-7 trainers since the contract was signed in May 2012, and the remaining 40 are being flown in on an accelerated monthly schedule. A Fixed Base Full Mission Simulator is now operational at Dundigal, with a 2nd simulator and other training systems scheduled to be operational by the end of 2014. Overall, the PC-7 MkII fleet has achieved more than 12,000 flying hours, and accumulated well over 24,000 landings since deliveries began in February 2013. Sources: Pilatus, “Indian Air Force Pilatus PC-7 MkII Fleet Clocks Record Performance”.

March 30/14: IJT competition? The IAF has reportedly published a non-binding global RFI regarding intermediate (Stage-II) jet trainers “for a primary task of Stage–II training of Pilots and also capable to undertake a secondary task of Counter Insurgent Operations” (sic).” The specifications seem to aim directly at some of the HJT-36 Sitara’s problem areas:

“Stalling. An unmistakable natural stall warning should be available, irrespective of the configuration. (b) Spinning. The aircraft must be resistant to spin but it should be possible to perform intentional spin upto six turns to either side and recover safely thereafter. The aircraft behavior in the spin should be predictable and consistent. (c) Aerobatics The IJT should be capable of performing loops, barrel rolls, rolls, combination maneuvers and negative ‘g’ flight without adverse effects on the engine and aircraft structure. The aircraft should be capable of sustained inverted flight for at least 30 seconds at sea level at maximum takeoff power…. The aircraft should be capable of carrying at least 1000 kg of external load. The aircraft should be equipped with a minimum of five hard points and each hard point on the wing should be stressed to carry at least 300 kg stores. The aircraft should be, free from buffet, dutch roll, snaking and wing rock during air to ground weapon training. The aircraft should be capable of employing the following armament: (a) Gun. A light weight gun/ gun-pod with adequate ammunition for at least 5 sec of firing time. (b) Rocket Pods. Reusable rocket pods. (c) Bombs. Should be able to carry at least 4×250 kg retarded or ballistic bombs. The stations should be capable of employing Carrier Bomb Light Stores (CBLS) type of dispensers for carriage of practice bombs (25 lbs and 3 Kg).

Defense News says that the RFI was reportedly sent to Russia’s Yakolev; Italy’s Alenia Aermacchi; Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI); Boeing, Northrop Grumman and Beechcraft; and Sweden’s Saab. That’s a strange list, if true. Boeing, Northrop Grumman, and Saab don’t really have current products in this space. Russia’s Yak-130 is a different class, overlapping India’s existing high-end Hawk AJT fleet; ditto KAI’s supersonic T-50 jet. Beechcraft doesn’t make jet trainers, just a T-6C turboprop which is designed for the basic-intermediate role, as is KAI’s KT-1. Ironically, these 2 turboprops were the finalists that Pilatus beat with the PC-7 Mk.II. The only real jet candidate would be Alenia, whose M-311 jet trainer didn’t even make the finals against Pilatus’ PC-7 Mk.II.

If India demands jets, the PC-7 wouldn’t qualify, but the hardpoint requirements may be within the PC-7’s 1,000 kg capacity. There have been efforts to arm the HJT-36 (q.v. Feb 19/11), but it isn’t clear how successful they have been. Sources: Livefist, “HAL’s IJT Delayed, IAF Scouts Foreign Source” | Defense NEws May 2014, “India Looks Abroad for New Jet Trainer”.

Feb 10/14: IJT. Defence Minister Shri AK Antony admits that the HJT-36 IJT isn’t going to arrive any time soon:

“The Intermediate Jet Trainer (IJT) is planned to replace Kiran Mk-I. Due to repeated revisions in the time line set for the Initial Operational Clearance (IOC) of IJT, and also considering the present state of the project regarding induction of the IJT in Indian Air Force (IAF), it has been decided to extend the use of Kiran Mk-I.

After the study of the fatigue life spectrum of Kiran Mk-I aircraft, the Regional Centre for Military Airworthiness (Aircraft) has recommended extension of Total Technical Life of the aircraft. This will help IAF to utilize the fleet till 2017-18, though in gradually reducing numbers.”

Sources: Indian MoD, “Replacement of Kiran Aircraft” | India’s Economic Times, “5th gen fighter aircraft project with Russia delayed: A K Antony”.

Jan 20/14: Next BTA? Ajai Shukla pens an oped that looks at HAL’s arguments for the HTT-40, while dismissing any concerns raised by the other side. That isn’t very valuable in and of itself, and makes his “full” cost figures suspect. On the other hand, he details the IAF’s counter-proposal: INR 24.05 billion (about $393 million) for 10 more full PC-7 imports, and 96 license-assembled PC-7 Mk.IIs at IAF’s 5 Base Repair Depot in Sulur, Tamil Nadu: 28 semi-knocked down kits, and 68 fully knocked-down parts sets.

There is merit to his point that lifetime costs are larger than purchase costs. An India unable to produce its own spares locally does leave itself at the risk of paying more, and subject to currency fluctuations. The core argument involves pinning down the potential differences, and then asking whether the IAF’s training fleet is both economically small enough, and militarily important enough, to justify the tradeoffs in exchange for a no-risk solution. The IAF says yes, and makes an argument. Shulka won’t address the question.

The most interesting point Shulka makes is that the original Basic Trainer Aircraft RFP only covered 75 fully built aircraft. Could a competitor snarl the proceedings by citing the failure to include a local-assembly under Transfer of Technology option, on the basis that they would have won had it been part of the tender? Anywhere other than India, the answer would be no. Separate contracts are separate. In India? Who knows. Sources: Business Standard, “Is indigenisation just a slogan?”

2012 – 2013

PC-7 Mk.II contract signed, plane inducted; HAL fighting to push its HTT-40, attacks procurement process and stalls follow-on basic trainer buy; KAI’s procurement challenge fails; India’s weak currency becomes a problem. 2013 induction

Dec 18/13: HTT-40. Minister of State for Defence Shri Jitendra Singh replies to a Parliamentary question in India’s Rajya Sabha upper chamber, and attaches a number to HAL’s basic trainer attempt. It’s a bit less than previous reports (q.v. April 15/13):

“HAL has sanctioned an amount of Rs.176.93 crore [DID: INR 1.77 billion, currently about $29 million] for preliminary design phase and detailed design phase activities of Hindustan Turbo Trainer-40 (HTT-40) aircraft. IAF has expressed reservations over acquiring the HTT-40 developed by HAL and has recast its proposal from ‘Make’ category to ‘Buy and Make’ category to procure the balance 106 Basic Trainer Aircraft (BTA).”

Source: India MoD, “Use of HTT-40 Trainer by IAF”.

Oct 14/13: Build to print? The IAF is forwarding what seems to be a compromise proposal: have HAL build the last 106 PC-7 Mk.II trainers, using blueprints supplied by Pilatus. Sources:

Oct 10/13: IJT. HAL is having serious flight and safety problems with its HJT-36 Intermediate Jet Trainer. The plane has an inherent asymmetry that makes the aircraft roll around 16 degrees during stall trials. That’s very dangerous to trainee pilots, and has forced the suspension of stall testing. HAL is still saying that they hope to get the HJT-36’s Initial Operational Clearance (IOC) by the end of December 2013, but “insiders” don’t consider that very likely.

HAL is contracted to deliver 12 limited series production aircraft and 75 production IJTs, but the IJT program has been in trouble for several years now. The original IOC date was supposed to be 2007, but a string of crashes (q.v. April 29/11) and other problems have pushed the likely date back by 7 years or more. It’s not a very good advertisement for HAL’s “MTT-40” lobbying, and the longer-term question is whether continued IJT problems will push effective fielding beyond the old HJT-16 fleet’s safe life. Sources: Indian Express, “HAL struggling with jet trainer project”.

July 30/13: Currency exchange. India’s Business Standard follows up on its earlier report about HAL’s HTT-40 trainer offer by discussing an IAF clarification, but won’t quote that clarification or link to it. That’s bad practice and questionable ethics, especially when other sources note the IAF statement’s citation of persistent delays and problems across all of HAL’s aircraft production programs. With that said, the Business Standard makes an important point along the way.

The flyaway price of each PC-7 Mk.II trainer in the contract is reportedly SFR 6.09 million. Since payment is linked to delivery, India’s declining rupee is steadily making each subsequent trainer more expensive. The IAF had given a mean figure of INR 300 million for the 2014 delivery year, but on May 24/12 when the contract was signed, the conversion worked out to INR 360.8 million each. Today’s conversion is INR 394.7 million – a 9.4% cost hike. India’s RBI is stepping up its defense of the currency as it approaches record lows, but a current account deficit amounting to 4.8% of GDP requires broader policy changes to avert further decline.

Currency exchange factors weren’t part of the cost figures in IAF Air Chief Marshal N A K Browne’s letter to Defence Minister A K Antony earlier this month, and the letter also gave wrong information regarding some basic specifications like the PC-7’s flight speed. That’s bad form indeed, and could become a club in the Minister’s hands if he wishes to pursue this issue. India’s Business Standard | India Today | Reuters.

July 29/13: Changed standards. India’s Business Standard reports that the IAF changed a number of key specifications for its trainer competition, after laying down a more stringent Preliminary Air Staff Qualitative Requirements (PSQR) for the HTT-40. Items changed include zero-zero ejection seats (lowered to 0/60), instructor visibility levels from the rear cockpit, the ability to the instructor to simulate front-seat instrument failures in flight, glide ratio reduced from 12:1 to 10:1, and the need for a pressurized cabin.

The report adds an important missing piece, which seems to explain HAL’s sudden ability to offer their HTT-40 for 42% less: lower standards. India’s critical shortage of IAF basic trainers pushed the service to look abroad, rather than risk serious damage to pilot training while waiting for a developmental plane. Once that decision is made, it’s entirely normal to set performance requirements to a standard that invites more competitors and better deals. Especially when dealing with established offerings, whose performance has proven more than adequate to train thousands of pilots in air forces all around the world.

These moves are especially notable because India has had serious problems with a number of important military programs, which remain in limbo to this day because of poor (and often late) framing of unusual requirements with no reference to the marketplace, followed by rigid insistence that vendors provide off-the-shelf, unmodified solutions. Current high-profile casualties of that approach include India’s LUH/RSH light helicopter program, a body armor program for soldiers, the lightweight assault rifle program, 2 armored personnel carrier programs that included an urgent deployment need, upgrades to India’s BMP-2 APCs, new anti-tank missiles, the QR-SAM and MR-SAM air defense programs, and 155mm towed and self-propelled howitzers. Taken together, this is a huge and serious set of gaps in India’s military capabilities, and adding basic flight training to this list would have been catastrophic.

Lower standards could allow a legitimate price reduction from HAL, though one has to acknowledge that estimates for an airplane that exists only on paper are wildly unreliable. In contrast, bids from abroad involved tested, in-production aircraft that are known to be able to meet both performance and cost specifications. Those considerations also factor in to vendor ratings, if the buyer is competent. India’s Business Standard.

April 15/13: I’m sorry, Danuj, you can’t do that. India’s Business Standard reports that the option for 37 more PC-7 Mk.II trainers is being stalled by HAL. The state-owned firm is demanding that the IAF buy 108 of their undeveloped HTT-40 trainer instead, in order to meet India’s requirement for a total of 183 basic trainers.

They’re leaning on defense minister Antony’s recent fetish for India-only production, in order to avoid “corruption” in defense procurement. We use fetish here in its traditional sense: a key component of animist magic that is performed as a placebo, in return for tangible recompense. To review:

After a long history of late or deficient performance on other aircraft programs, and a INR 600 million per trainer bid (vid. Dec 19/12) that got them thrown out of the competition, HAL has miraculously discovered that they can offer the HTT-40 for just INR 350 million per plane, a 42% reduction that’s suddenly cheaper than Pilatus’ proven INR 385 million figure. This will include development of an armed HTT-40, and HAL is also claiming lower life-cycle costs.

Bids for blueprints-only aircraft tend to be followed by “unexpected” price hikes once political commitment makes it hard to back out. That same commitment dynamic may be driving HAL itself, after their corporate investment of about INR 2 billion (about $36 million) to develop the HTT-40. The corresponding life cycle cost estimates are also likely to be too low, and experience shows that truthful figures require a flying fleet like Pilatus’, not paper promises without a prototype.

Meanwhile, the Indian Air Force will find it difficult to train its pilots, because HAL is lobbying to block planes the IAF says it needs, by making promises it almost certainly can’t keep. All in return for money and political favors. Which, somehow, doesn’t qualify as corruption. India’s Business Standard, ”
HAL’s trainer pitted as Rs 4,500 cr cheaper than Swiss Pilatus trainer” | UK Daily Mail India, “HAL’s trainer aircraft headed for disaster as development costs soar”.

March 13/13: IJT. In a Parliamentary reply, Minister of State for Defence Shri Jitendra Singh says that:

“Indian Air Force (IAF) has signed two contracts with HAL for delivery of 12 Limited Series Production Intermediate Jet Trainer (IJT) aircraft and 73 Series Production IJT aircraft. The IJT aircraft is presently targeted to be inducted in IAF in the year 2014 onwards.”

That would make 15 years from initial contract to induction for HAL’s HJT-36 Sitara intermediate trainer jet, which is already late. Even so, 2014 gives the IAF a very narrow window in which to shelve this project, and they probably won’t. The opportunity, such as it is, is that the IAF envisaged possible orders of 200-250 IJTs, for use in “Intermediate Stage 2” training. That leaves about 115-160 aircraft as potential pickups for a rival like the PC-7 MkII, if HAL’s IJT runs into delivery, service, or cost issues.

Feb 4/13: Options clause. India’s Business Standard reports the IAF will exercise their contract option to buy another 37 Pilatus trainers at the same price, which is reportedly INR 300 million per plane. This brings India’s Swiss-made order total to 112:

“A top IAF official told Business Standard, “The contract for 75 Pilatus trainers, which was signed last year, includes an options clause that allows India to order an extra 50 per cent of the contracted number of aircraft (i.e. 37 trainers) at the same price as the first 75 trainers. We will exercise this options clause this month.”

Feb 2/13: the first 3 Indian PC-7 Mk.IIs arrive at the Air Force Academy in Dundigal, near Hyderabad. They were flown in by the Swiss pilots. MSN India | WebIndia123.

1st PC-7s arrive

Dec 19/12: HHT-40s and IJTs. India’s Business Standard reports that HAL had also been a contender in the basic trainer competition, with a proposal to develop and build 106 “Hindustan Turbo Trainer – 40” (HTT-40) planes. The problem was that HAL was about twice as expensive as foreign-built aircraft, at Rs 60 crore per plane. Basic trainers aren’t exactly a strategically vital competency, so that was it for HAL. The paper even suggests that additional PC-7 Mk.IIs beyond the initial 75 could be manufactured in Switzerland.

The other question the paper raises involves the IAF’s missing solution for “Stage 2” intermediate training, between the PC-7 and the jet-powered Hawk AJT. Pilatus touts their plane as being effective through Stage 2, but HAL continues its 14-year old quest to develop an Intermediate Jet Trainer. A 2011 crash has set that option back again, and more problems or unfavorable cost comparisons could earn the PC-7 another slice of business.

PC-7 Mark II
(click to view full)

May 24/12: PC-7 contract. India and Pilatus sign a contract for 75 PC-7 MkII turboprop aircraft, their integrated ground based training system, and a comprehensive logistics support package. The contract also contains an option clause for extending the contract to 105 planes. Indian reports place the initial contract value at INR 29 billion, but Pilatus rates it higher, at “in excess of 500 million” Swiss Francs. In dollar terms, it’s worth over $525 million.

Delivery of the PC-7s and their associated training systems is scheduled to begin by the end of 2012, and the 30-plane option clause will expire in May 2015. As part of this contract, Pilatus will establish in-country depot level maintenance capabilities at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), which will allow the IAF to fix the planes in country, instead of having to send them back to Switzerland. Pilatus has also entered into the required 30% value industrial offset contract, and says that it is “our intention to leverage the offset opportunity to establish manufacturing capability for the region in support of our business plans for India.”

It’s a very good week for Pilatus, who just won a 55 plane order from Saudi Arabia for 55 of its top of the line PC-21 trainers. India’s contract is the largest single contract in the company’s history, and will extend Pilatus’ global fleet of turboprop trainers to more than 900 aircraft. IANS | PTI | Swissinfo | Flight International.

PC-7 contract

May 2-3/12: KAI aside. India’s Minister of Defence Shri AK Antony, in a written reply to Shri PiyushGoyal in Rajya Sabha:

“The proposal for procurement of Basic Trainer Aircraft for the Indian Air Force (IAF) is awaiting consideration of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS)… A representation submitted by M/s Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), one of the bidders, has been found to be devoid of merit.”

Korean Air Industries (KAI) had alleged flaws in the selection procedure, on the grounds that Pilatus’ bid was incomplete. Antony’s written response sets off a flurry of reports, indicating that the PC-7 deal’s major bottleneck has been cleared. India MoD | Times of India | Flight International | Jane’s.

2009 – 2011

HPT-32 basic trainer fleet in crisis; Pilatus picked as preferred; HJT-36 crash. PC-7 Mk.II
(click to view full)

July 18/11: Indian media reports that Pilatus’ rivals are pressing the Indian government to keep their aircraft in the race, but the IAF is sticking by its preference. The PC-7 Mk.II is said to be a lot less expensive than the most modern offerings like Pilatus’ PC-21. That was a key to its win, but it’s also a plane in wide use around the world.

Pilatus is conducting commercial negotiations with the Indian government, after which India’s parliament must approve the budget for the deal. If the billion-dollar, 181 plane deal is approved, 75 aircraft would reportedly be delivered by Pilatus in flyaway condition, with another 106 to be built by HAL in India. India Strategic | Flight International.

June 18/11: Contract details. The daily Le Temps reports that Pilatus Aircraft is about to sign a record SFR 850 million (about $1.01 billion) deal to supply 75 PC-7 MkII trainers to the Indian Air Force (IAF), which could eventually be extended to as many as 200 of the single-engined turboprops.

Pilatus declined to comment on the report that the trainer had been selected as the winner of offers invited by India in 2009 for a new trainer. Aviation Week offered quotes that stressed the absence of a deal, quoting Indian chief of air staff, Air Marshal P.V. Naik as saying that:

“Of the three short-listed firms from the U.S. [T-6], Korea [KT-1] and Switzerland [PC-7 Mk.II], the bid made by Pilatus has emerged the lowest… We have started price negotiations with the Swiss vendor for supplying 75 aircraft…”

Other contenders that didn’t make the IAF’s short list reportedly included Grob’s G-120 TP, Embraer’s EMB-314 Super Tucano, and Finmeccanica’s jet-powered M-311. See The Hindu | France 24 | Oman Tribune | Aviation Week.

April 29/11: IJT. HJT-36 prototype #S-3466 crashes in the Krishnagiri district of Tamil Nadu. It’s the 3rd crash in 4 years for the intermediate flight trainer, which was supposed to become operational in 2007. A crash at Aero India 2007 had a plane swerve off the runway just as the pilot was getting airborne; and in February 2009, the 2nd prototype landed on its belly. DNA, “IJT aircraft crashes for third time in 4 years”.

IJT crashes

Feb 19/11: IJT. HAL is looking to arm the HJT-36 Sitara, and is reportedly inviting bids to give the platform a 12.7-mm gun pod with 200 roun
d capacity on its in-board wing stations. That makes sense, since the Sitara will be used for primary weapon training of pilots in gunnery, rocketry, bombing and weapon aiming. The bad news? Initial Operational Clearance is slated for June 2011, and the plane is entering final tests. This seems a bit late to be looking at such fundamental capabilities. Sources: Livefist, “Effort To Arm Indian Stage-2 Trainer Begins”.

Oct 2/09: An Indian Express report says that India is urgently seeking up to 180 trainer aircraft to replace or augment its trainer fleet at all levels, in the wake of problems with the lower-tier HPT-32 fleet and contract issues with its upper-tier Hawk AJT program.

The report adds that a plan to buy 40 additional Hawk AJTs has hit a roadblock, due to differences over price between BAE and the IAF.

Oct 1/09: HPT-32s. Plans to phase out India’s grounded HPT-32 basic trainer fleet will intensify India’s needs for trainer aircraft at all levels. Indian Express quotes Air Chief Marshal P V Naik:

“The IAF lost two experienced instructors in a fatal crash of HPT-32 this year. We have ordered an inquiry and a study on the aircraft, as we have had a lot of problems since their induction in 1984. We hope to use it only till 2013-14″…

Sept 2/09: HPT-32s. India’s Business Standard:

“The Indian Air Force (IAF) is desperately short of aircraft for training its flight cadets. With the entire fleet of basic trainers – the HPT-32 Deepak – grounded after a series of crashes, advanced training is suffering equally due to unexpected delays in the manufacture of the Hawk advanced jet trainer (AJT) in India…

Trainer crisis

Additional Readings

• Bharat Rakshak – HAL HJT-36. Photos. “The first flight of the HJT-36 was done on 7th March 2003 by Sqn Ldr Baldev Singh (Retd), Chief Test Pilot (Fixed Wing (FW)) of HAL. He took up the IJT on its maiden flight, which lasted for about 20 minutes.”

• Pilatus – PC-7 Mark II. The main site defers to the PC-9M for Advanced/Intermediate training roles, but countries like South Africa are already using PC-7 Mk.IIs all the way up to Hawk Advanced Jet Trainer transition.

IAF Fighters

• DID – India Ordering, Modernizing SU-30MKIs.

• DID – India’s M-MRCA Fighter Competition.

• DID – LCA Tejas: An Indian Fighter – With Foreign Help.

Americas

• The Bell-Boeing Joint Project Office has been awarded a $58.8 million US Navy contract in order to develop and integrate the V-22 aerial refueling system (VARS) for the MV-22. Once installed, VARS will operate by using a portable refueling station that will roll up the Osprey’s back ramp and into its back cabin. Crews will use it to aerially refuel F-35s, F/A18 Hornets and other aircraft – including V-22s and CH-53 helicopters – by extending a hose and drogue out the open back ramp. NAVIR will supervise the contract execution, and the whole project is to be completed by June 2019.

• Aurora Flight Sciences tested the new capabilities of the Autonomous Aerial Cargo/Utility System (AACUS) last week, and if proven workable, could see the entire USMC rotary-wing fleet converted into autonomous flying machines starting from 2018. With the May 26 test seeing the system mounted on a Bell 206 helicopter, it’s believed that the AACUS will now be tested on a UH-1H roughly this time next year. The AACUS is an autonomy applique kit that enables operations of full-scale rotary-wing aircraft in and out of austere landing zones, tactically, with little human assistance.

Middle East North Africa

• Sales of cluster munitions to Saudi Arabia have been blocked by the Obama administration after reports of their use by the kingdom in the ongoing conflict in Yemen. An Amnesty International report revealed last week that British-made BL-755 munitions, sold to both Saudi Arabia and coalition partner UAE in the 1980s and 1990s, were discovered in a village in northern Yemen, spurring claims that war crimes were being conducted against civilians. Neither the US nor Saudi Arabia have signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions treaty, which bans the use of the munitions.

Europe

• General Dynamics European Land Systems and Airbus recently demonstrated the loading of the former’s Piranha 5 8×8 Armored Personnel Carrier (APC) into an Airbus A400M cargo lifter. Testing was carried out in San Pablo, Spain and no special requirement was needed in order to load and tie-down the armored vehicle inside the transport’s cargo hold. Spain is one of the key partner nations involved in the A400M program, and the Piranha 5 has been selected for the integration of Spanish technologies and subsystems under an R&D contract for the future Wheeled Combat Vehicle (VCR in Spanish) project.

• Russia has carried out its second successful test of a new anti-satellite missile dubbed Nudol. The weapon was launched from the Plesetsk test launch facility on May 25, and follows the first successful test which occurred on November 18 last year. It remains unknown if the missile was fired against a satellite or fired in a suborbital trajectory without hitting a target.

• It’s been reported that the British government is set to buy 50 AH-64E Apaches off-the-shelf from Boeing in a deal expected to be worth $2.9 billion. The announcement confirming the sale is expected to be made at the Royal International Air Tattoo or Farnborough air show in July. This will disappoint Leonardo-Finmeccanica who hoped to instead land the contract producing the helicopters at its Agusta-Westland plant in Yeovil, Somerset.

Asia Pacific

• South Korea is to pursue the development of their own submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) to be fitted on their next generation Chang Bogo-III submarine. This class of boat is planned to be equipped with vertical launch systems, with 10 indigenous Hyunmoo cruise missiles each. The cold launch technology for launching missiles underwater will be based on the S-400 air defense missile, gained from Russia as repayment for loans given to Moscow in 1991.

• This week’s Singapore Shangri-la Dialogue may see sideline discussions between France and India over the closing of a multi-billion sale of 36 Rafale fighters. The defense ministers from both nations will be in attendance, and it’s expected that issues like consensus on actions to be taken in case of a material breach, stringent liability clause, and guarantees by France are likely to be discussed.

Today’s Video

• V-22 Aerial Refueling Proof of Concept:

Monday, May 30th is Memorial Day in the USA. DID honors those who have given all of their tomorrows in American military service, and will not be publishing. Readers are reminded that in America, the National Moment of Remembrance takes place at 3:00 pm.

A survey commissioned by The National WWII Museum in Washington had only 20% say they were very familiar with the day’s purpose, which is to honor those who have fallen in America’s wars. It’s the same purpose as Remembrance Day/ Armistice Day (Nov. 11th) in the British Commonwealth and elsewhere – but in America, November 11th is Veteran’s Day, honoring all who have served in the US military.

Americas

• L-3 Communications Vertex Aerospace has been awarded a $302.2 million US navy contract for logistics services in support of the C-12 Huron utility lift aircraft. Work to be carried out includes post-production, full commercial-type aircraft maintenance, logistics support and materials for the Marine Corps Reserve C-12 and Navy TC-12B trainer aircraft with a completion date set for June 2021. The military version of Hawker Beechcraft’s King Air 200, the C-12 is a multi-mission aircraft that provides personnel and cargo transportation, range clearance, medical evacuation, courier flights, and humanitarian rescue or assistance.

• “Not a wild idea” is outgoing USAF’s chief of staff Gen. Mark Welsh’s thoughts on restarting the F-22 production line as industry officials and the air force have repeatedly dubbed the concept a nonstarter. In an era of declining military budgets and streamlining of services, Walsh’s comments will bolster lawmakers supporting the superiority fighter’s reintroduction, and may see an F-22 revival gaining traction, after the full House passed legislation that would, if approved by the Senate and signed into law, direct the service to study the possibility.

Middle East North Africa

• RADA has announced the sale of a number of its RPS-42 Tactical Air Surveillance Radar Systems to an unnamed Asian country. The $2 million contract will see the Israeli firm deliver the system this year, and will be installed by the purchaser on its own tactical vehicles. Once installed, the system will provide the customer with a mobile air surveillance solution for its armed forces.

• Turkish defense procurement officials revealed that the Turkish Navy is keen to induct a long-range maritime patrol aircraft to complement its CN-235 and ATR72 fleet, with Boeing’s P-8A a favored choice. Requirements from Ankara include being able to fly 1,000 to 1,200 nautical miles away from their main base in Turkey, and fly 12 to 15 hours as well as being able to fulfill anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare roles. While a request for information is expected to be released soon, the parameters set may make the competition a very small one.

Europe

• The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) could have a contractor chosen for its laser directed energy weapon demonstrator by next month. Andy Rhodes, a business development executive at Raytheon UK, dropped the date of June 3 as a possible MoD announcement date when talking to reporters during a tour of the company’s plant in Glenrothes, Scotland. The company is part of a Babcock-led consortium including Lockheed Martin, Thales UK, MBDA and Rheinmetall. The consortium’s offering involves a modified truck-mounted version of Raytheon’s Phalanx close in anti-missile with the gun removed to make way for the laser, which is being developed by Qinetiq. Lasers for three other contenders are believed to be supplied by the company.

• Russian manufacturer Aviacor has delivered another An-140 turboprop aircraft to the Russian Navy, bringing to three the number operated by the service. The aircraft’s configuration is primarily for passenger transport but can also be modified to carry cargo. As well as providing An-140s, Aviacor is conducting maintenance and overhauls of Tu-154 aircraft, modernization of Tu-95MSs and maintenance of An-74 aircraft.

Asia Pacific

• Just days after the lifting of the US arms embargo, Vietnam look like they may request F-16s and P-3 Orions from Pentagon’s excess defense articles (EDA) program. Hanoi may also look into purchasing US made UAVs alongside the aircraft to improve its air defense and maritime security capabilities in order to enhance its position in the South China Sea. It’s also likely that the government will look to achieve a similar P-3 deal given to Taiwan including torpedoes (banned under the embargo) and an F-16 EDA procurement given to Indonesia.

• General Electric is to provide its F414-GE-400 engines for South Korea’s KF-X fighter after beating a European consortium offering the Eurojet EJ2000. The deal is estimated to be worth up to $3.5 billion, and contracts are expected to be finalized and signed in June. Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd (KIA), who is developing the jet alongside Lockheed Martin, plans to develop and produce 170 twin-engined jets initially, with 50 destined for export to Indonesia.

Today’s Video

• RADA’s RPS-42 Tactical Air Surveillance Radar System:

Kilo Class cutaway
(click to view full)

In April 2009, reports surfaced that Vietnam had agreed in principle to a deal with Russia for 6 of its diesel-electric Kilo/ Project 636 Class fast attack submarines. By December 2009, it was an inflection-point deal for a capability that Vietnam has never had before. By November 2013, the new submarines had begun to arrive.

Nor is that the only change in Vietnam’s military capabilities these days, courtesy of their long-standing relationship with Russia. There have been some outside deals for items like maritime surveillance floatplanes, and a Dutch deal will provide high-end frigates. For the most part, however, Vietnam’s new combat power in the air, at sea, and on land is coming from Russia. China’s displays of naval might are only part of the mosaic influencing Vietnam’s decisions in these matters.

Vietnam’s New Military Buys: Considerations & Conclusions Southeast Asia
(click to view full)

China’s 2009 display of naval might certainly marks an increased shift toward “forward defense” farther from its borders, a policy that must eventually include China’s trade lifeline to Vietnam’s south, through the Straits of Malacca. It also underlined a growing gap between China’s increasingly advanced ships and high capacity hovercraft, and Vietnam’s fleet of older Soviet and even American ships.

Ownership of the Spratly Islands remains very much in dispute, and Vietnam and China share a centuries-long history of mutual distrust and occupation. Recent punctuations of that animosity include the 1979 3rd Indochina War; this was followed by a significant skirmish in 1981, and a naval skirmish over the Spratly Islands in 1988. Today, Vietnamese protests over a Chinese bauxite mine in Vietnam, and media disobedience over the Spratly Islands issue, serve as a reminder that the 1989 treaty has not changed the relationship’s underlying fundamentals.

Key Platforms Submarines Kilo Class for China
(click to view full)

China itself has adopted a strategy of building up a submarine force to counter a superior surface opponent (the US Navy). It’s entirely logical for Vietnam to adopt a similar approach vis-a-vis China, especially given that China’s lifeline of raw materials and exported goods from and to Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and parts of Asia passes right by Vietnam’s doorstep.

Aside from Thyssen Krupp Marine’s U209 family of submarines, the Russian Kilo Class are the world’s most widely exported subs. They’re known for a level of quietness that’s significantly better than other Russian designs, and have been produced in the Project 877EKM, and the Project 636M “Improved Kilo” / Varshavyanka Class variant that Vietnam is receiving. Countries operating or ordering these submarines include Russia, Algeria, China, India, Iran, Poland, and Romania.

There had been some speculation that Vietnam’s emphasis on shallow water operations, and proximity to the Straits of Malacca, might have made DCNS’ novel 885t, $200 million Andrasta Class of “pocket submarines” attractive. Instead, Vietnam appears to have opted for a longer-range, higher capacity 3,000t submarine from its tried and true Russia partner. They can be armed with 533mm heavy torpedoes, mines, and/or the 3M54 Klub-S family of missiles. The Improved Kilo Class boats will be named:

• HQ-182 Hanoi (delivered)
  
• HQ-183 Ho Chi Minh City (testing complete 2014-01)
  
• HQ-184 Hai Phong (launched 2013-08, arrival 2014)
  
• HQ-185 Khanh Hoa (arrival 2015)
  
• HQ-186 Da Nang (arrival 2015)
  
• HQ-187 Ba Ria-Vung Tau (arrival 2016)

Other Naval Dinh Tien Hoang
(click to view full)

The new submarines are the most important new Russian addition to Vietnam’s capabilities, but they are not alone. A mixed set of 6 stealthy Gepard 3.9/Dinh Tien Hoang Class light frigates will add surface warfare and patrol punch. The first pair optimized for surface attack are already delivered, plus orders for 2 model emphasizing anti-submarine warfare, and 2 upgraded ships with undetermined capabilities as yet.

Gepard 3.9 frigates. These ships are a combined diesel-turbine export version of Russia’s Project 11611 (Tartarstan) frigates, which serve in the Caspian fleet. The 102m/ 2,100t design sits in the grey area between small frigates and large corvettes, and despite their 5,000nm endurance, they’re best suited to local maritime patrol and interdiction. Their stealth-enhanced ship design and 8 sub-sonic Kh-35E anti-ship missiles make them potentially dangerous adversaries in littoral regions; other armament includes 1 AK-176 76mm main gun, 2x AK-630 family multi-barrel 30mm automated guns, and 12-20 mines. There’s space at the back of the ship for a Ka-27 helicopter, but no hangar.

Air defense is handled by a Palma turret derived from the land-based SA-19 Tunguska, carrying twin AO-18KD multi-barrel 30mm cannons and 8 SOSNA-R 9M337 hyper-velocity laser beam rider missiles. An optical turret in the Palma’s center handles fire control, and a command module includes the 3Ts-99/Positiv ME1 target detection 3D radar. It’s mounted in place of the 9K33M “OSA-M”/SS-N-4 Gecko twin-launcher missile system installed on Russia’s frigates, and provides a maximum air defense reach of 10 km and 19,500 feet altitude, with a 2nd kill zone out to 4 km for the 30mm guns.

The ASW ships can be expected to carry 533 mm torpedo tubes, depth charges, and an RBU-6000 12-barreled Anti-Submarine rocket launcher.

This size and weapons array may not be much to get excited about, relative to other international frigate designs, but it will make them Vietnam’s most capable combat ships until the Dutch Sigma Class frigates arrive. There has been talk about including Shtil-1 air defense missiles with a 50 km range on the last 2 ships, in place of the Palma turret. Adding those would quadruple the ships’ air defense radius, but the ship’s overall changes would need to extend beyond that mounting.

Molniya/ Project 12418 FAC. These missile-armed Fast Attack Crafts, derived from the Tarantul-class Soviet corvette design, will help modernize a fleet that’s mostly made up of aging Soviet FACs, and captured American ships from the Vietnam War. The new ships are small, at just 550t full load, but they pack a very dangerous set of 8 sub-sonic Kh-35E anti-ship missiles, or 4 Moskit/ SS-N-22 Sunburn supersonic anti-ship missiles. Up to 10 may be built under the 2010 contract.

An agreement to license-build the Russian Kh-35 anti-ship missile adds extra impetus to Vietnam’s maritime modernization.

Air Force: SU-30MKs, and…? SU-30MK2 weapons
(click to view full)

Vietnam’s air force is still reliant on the same core platform that formed their high end during the Vietnam war: the MiG-21. Swing-wing SU-22M4 strike and close air support fighters are only slightly newer. After that, there’s a sharp technological break to SU-27 air superiority fighters. Vietnam is slowly extending that modernized base with newer multi-role SU-30 planes from the same fighter family, strengthening air defenses and adding a long-range strike capability. They need that kind of firepower, given China’s own set of SU-30/J-11s, and the existence of flash-points like the Spratleys far from the mainland. The question is how they manage to balance that qualitative improvement with the need for fighter numbers, as the MiGs and SU-22s age out.

Note that even the most modern fighters will be limited without AWACS/ AEW support for wider awareness and coordination, and patrol ranges around key disputed territories like the Spratlys will be limited without mid-air refueling platforms. The bad news is that Vietnam doesn’t have a lot of budget to spare, and its ground forces are also in need of significant upgrades. The good news is that options like the Airbus/IAI C295 AEW, BAe 146 tanker conversions, and IAI Bedek’s K-767 tanker conversion of used commercial aircraft are creating new lower-cost options.

Contracts and Key Events

This section covers only Vietnamese contracts with Russia. As the “Additional Readings” section notes, Russia is not Vietnam’s exclusive arms provider – but it is the country’s most important defense relationship.

2014 – 2016

May 27/16: Just days after the lifting of the US arms embargo, Vietnam look like they may request F-16s and P-3 Orions from Pentagon’s excess defense articles (EDA) program. Hanoi may also look into purchasing US made UAVs alongside the aircraft to improve its air defense and maritime security capabilities in order to enhance its position in the South China Sea. It’s also likely that the government will look to achieve a similar P-3 deal given to Taiwan including torpedoes (banned under the embargo) and an F-16 EDA procurement given to Indonesia.

May 24/16: US President Barack Obama has announced the lifting of a decades long arms embargo on Vietnam. Speaking in Hanoi with Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang and under a looming bust of Communist leader Ho Chi Minh, Obama said that the move will end a “lingering vestige of the Cold War” and pave the way for more-normal relations between the two countries. The move comes as Vietnam looks to recenter allies amid a growing spat with China over ownership of islands in the South China Sea, while also looking to lessen their reliance on Russian weapons manufacturers, factors that may make Hanoi one of Washington’s new best friends in the region.

January 5/16: Vietnam has received possession of two more Su-30MK2 fighters, bringing the current number now operated to to thirty two. Dubbed the King Cobra, the Vietnamese Air Force hopes to have this increased to thirty-six by the end of 2016. The latest order, for twelve jets, was signed in 2013 and worth $600 million. Flight training for the aircraft is being provided by the Indian Air Force, who also operate the Russian made aircraft in their own military. In the past, India has trained Vietnamese naval personnel in operating Russian Kilo-class submarines.

Dec 10/14: Submarines. HQ-184 Hai Phong is reportedly on its way to Vietnam, after technical acceptance was signed on Dec. 4. The rest of the project appears on track: sea trials for boat #4 started in June, while the keel of #6 was laid in May.

Source: Russia Beyond the Headlines: Admiralty Shipyards provide Vietnamese Navy with third Project 636.1 submarine, Vietnam media relaying Russian sources.

Testing “Lightning” ships

Dec 8/14: Fast Attack Crafts. HQ 377 and HQ 378, the first 2 of 6 Molniya fast attack, are handed over by Ba Son Corporation for induction by the Vietnamese navy. The ships had been tested in April and delivered in June. The government seems to support Ba Son’s request to build a new, more modern shipbuilding factory.

Sources: Nhan Dan: Ba Son Corporation urged to complete, hand over missile boats | Tuoi Tre News: Vietnam to boost defense development, improve military combat capacity | Vietnam Breaking News: Vietnam to build more Russian missile boats | Asitimes: Vietnam holds technical test for its first 2 domestically-made high-speed missile boats.

Aug 27/14: SU-30s. Russia & India Report says that negotiations are underway to deepen Vietnam’s training relationship with India, progressing beyond subs to include its 36 SU-30MK2 jets by 2015. Malaysia already trains with India, as their SU-30MKM jets have a lot in common with the IAF’s SU-30MKIs. Vietnam’s SU-30MKs lack canards and thrust vectoring, but India is a logical pairing:

“India and Vietnam are likely to sign a defence agreement, under which Vietnamese pilots will be trained to operate Russian-built Sukhoi fighters, sources in the Indian Defence Ministry told RIR. The agreement is likely to be signed when Indian President Pranab Mukherjee visits the Southeast Asian country in September. The details are being finalised during the on-going visit of Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj to Vietnam, the sources said…. India will also consider the sale of the Indo-Russian BrahMos missiles to Vietnam [DID: q.v. Dec 3/13 entry], although a deal is not imminent, the sources added.”

Adding the air-launched, supersonic BrahMos to Vietnam’s arsenal would make Indian training the only sensible solution, while greatly increasing Vietnam’s strike reach and capabilities. Sources: Russia & India Report, “India to train Vietnamese pilots to fly Sukhoi fighters”.

April 23/14: Frigates. Russia’s Nudelman Precision Engineering Design Bureau confirms that the “People’s Army of Vietnam Navy” (Maoist heritage, much?) will equip its Project 11661 Gepard anti-submarine light frigates with the same Palma air defense and CIWS system that sits on the first 2 surface warfare frigates. The ships are scheduled for delivery in 2017, and given the space constraints involved in a 2,100t platform, it’s always interesting to see what can and can’t stay when they’re equipped for a new role. Sources: IHS Jane’s Navy International, “Vietnam to arm new Gepard-class frigates with Palma CIWS”.

April 1/14: Frigates. Vietnam’s 2nd batch of Gepard frigates are scheduled for delivery in 2017, according to Zelenodolsk Shipyard’s annual financial statements. That set is supposed to be optimized for anti-submarine duties. Sources: IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, “Vietnam to receive two more Gepard frigates in 2017”.

Feb 27/14: Frigates. Vietnam has reportedly ordered 2 more Gepard Class/ Project 11661K frigates from Russia’s Gorky Shipyard, which will bring their fleet to 6.

None of the announcements discuss terms, or mention which variant Vietnam is buying this time. The small 2,100t frigates have space limitations, which forces some role-based equipment tradeoffs. Current orders involve 2 Gepards ordered in 2006 and optimized for surface strike with anti-ship missiles (q.v. March 5/11), plus 2 frigates ordered in 2011 and equipped as anti-submarine specialists (q.v. Dec 7/11). There have been unconfirmed reports that subsequent ships would add Russia’s SA-17 derived 3S90E Shtil-1 naval anti-aircraft missile system, providing much wider air defense out to 50 km. Sources: Vietnam.NET, “First of a New Class Patrol Ships Laid Down at Zelenodolsky Shipyard in Russia” | Defense Update, “First of a New Class Patrol Ships Laid Down at Zelenodolsky Shipyard in Russia” | Defense Studies, “Second Batch of Gepard Equipped with Sthil-1 Missile”.

2 more frigates

Jan 16/14: Submarines. Vietnam’s 2nd submarine, HQ-183 Ho Chi Minh City, completes operational tests in Russia and receives its checkout certificate. It will be loaded onto a barge, and is expected to arrive in Vietnam around May 3/14.

HQ-184 Hai Phong was launched on Aug 28/13, and is also expected to be delivered to Vietnam in 2014. HQ-186 Khanh Hoa is due in 2015, and HQ-185 Da Nang can be inferred as also arriving that year. HQ-187 Ba Ria Vung Tau is due in 2016. Sources: Bao Dat Viet, “Tau ngam HQ-185 Da Nang ha thuy ngay 28/3” | Thanh Nien News, “Vietnam’s second Russian submarine completes testing” | Vietnamnet, “Russia hands over the second submarine to Vietnam”.

T-90
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Jan 10/14: Tanks. Vietnam is reportedly investigating the possibility of upgrading at least some of their existing fleet of about 480 T-72 main battle tanks, and buying T-90s to begin replacing their force of almost 1,000 elderly T-55s. Due diligence has reportedly been done with India’s T-90s, which also face the ravages of hot climates.

The problem is cost. T-72 upgrades can be sourced from a number of countries besides Russia, but top of the line new tanks are costly. If new armored personnel carriers also have to be bought for Vietnam’s armored formations, the entire project gets very expensive very quickly. On the other hand, defeats on land are very, very expensive when you have a large and aggressive neighbor on your border, and a long history of animosity. Tanks may not be the whole answer, but Vietnam will have to spend money to upgrade its land forces in some way.

Vietnam’s armored forces include various models of Russian and Chinese equipment, which means their fleets are fragmented as well as old. Consolidation of any sort would be helpful, though their terrain means that light vehicles can be as important as heavy armor. Israel has been talking to Vietnam about military deals, and one wonders if they’ve discussed conversion of the T-55s into refurbished Achzarit heavy APCs. Sources: Tinnong, “Viet Nam xem xet mua xe tang T-90 cua Nga”.

Jan 3/13: Submarines. HQ-183 Hanoi is unloaded from the Dutch Rolldock Sea carrying vessel into Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam. Sources: Vietnam.NET, “In pictures: Hanoi submarine arrives at Cam Ranh port” | Thanh Nien, “First Russian-made submarine arrives in Vietnam” (also several pictures) | Vietnam.NET, “Vietnam’s most modern submarine launched” | Taiwan’s Want China Times, “Vietnam receives its first Russian Kilo-class submarine”.

1st sub arrives

2012 – 2013

12 more SU-30MK2s; Kh-35 anti-ship missile partnership; Singapore partnership for submarine rescue; Vietnam will need help with training and maintenance. Kh-35E/ SS-N-25
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Dec 3/13: Weapons. Vietnam has reportedly placed an official request for a derivative of the Russian SS-N-26 Oniks missiles that already equip a couple of its shore batteries:

“Vietnam formally requested India to supply the Indo-Russian BrahMos cruise missiles at a meeting in New Delhi, informed sources told RIR. The request was made when Vietnam Communist party general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong visited the Indian capital, the sources said, adding that the Southeast Asian country was looking at enhancing security cooperation with India… During Phu Trong’s visits, requests were also made to India for submarine training and for conversion training for Vietnamese pilots to fly Sukhoi-30 aircrafts.”

The PJ-10 Brahmos is also a supersonic, radar-guided, medium-range anti-ship and strike missile. Vietnam’s current and planned ships aren’t good platforms for BrahMos, and Vietnam already has similar SS-N-26 shore batteries in place. A buy from India could deploy mobile shore batteries, but the most likely interest involves the developmental air-launched BrahMos, designed to be carried by SU-30 fighters. That would add about 300 km of strike range to Vietnam’s fighters, using a lethal threat to both enemy ships and shore installations. Deploying that combination would be almost as significant as Vietnam’s new submarines in shifting the South China Sea’s overall balance of power. Sources: Russia & India Report, “Vietnam looking to purchase BrahMos cruise missiles”.

Nov 7/13: Submarines. The Improved Kilo Class boat HQ-183 Hanoi is handed over to the Vietnam Navy in Russia, where its crew has been undergoing training. It will be loaded onto a barge on November 11/13, and prepared for shipment to Vietnam.

At the same time, representatives from Russia and Vietnam sign a document that will transfer a new submarine sailor training center in Cam Ranh Bay to the Vietnam Navy in January 2014, when the Hanoi and its cadre arrive at Cam Ranh Bay. By the end of 2014, Vietnam is expected to have 3 of its 6 ordered submarines. Sources: Vietnam Bridge, “Russia hands over Cam Ranh submarine sailor training center to Vietnam” | RIA Novosti, “Russia to Deliver 2 More ‘Black Hole’ Subs to Vietnam in ’14”.

Oct 25/13: Infrastructure. Vietnam officially inaugurates a maintenance line in Da Nang’s “Factory A32” for Su-27 and Su-30 fighters. Other countries have had real problems waiting for Russian support, so moving more of that support in-country will boost the fighter fleet’s availability. Sources: People’s Army Newspaper Online, “Maintenance line for Su-27 and Su-30 fighters unveiled”.

Sept 26/13: Infrastructure. Vietnam is committing to a ship repair facility in Cam Ranh Bay that can handle Russian ships by 2015. It’s a win for their ally, but Vietnam is also trying to turn Cam Ranh Bay into a broader maritime service center. US Military Sealift Command ships have received repairs and basic maintenance there over the last couple of years.

Strong naval maintenance capabilities for Russian designs is also a big asset to a force that operates Russian ships almost exclusively. Sources: RIA Novosti, “Vietnam Sets 2015 Deadline for Soviet, Russian Ship Repair Facility”.

Sept 24/13: Frigates. Russia’s Zelenodolsk shipyard has begun construction on Vietnam’s next Gepard Class 2,100t light frigates, which will be optimized for anti-submarine warfare instead of surface attack (q.v. Dec 7/11). Sources: RIA Novosti, “Russia Starts Building 2 Frigates for Vietnamese Navy”.

Sept 6/13: Submarines. Singapore and Vietnam sign a Memorandum of Agreement regarding submarine rescue. If there’s an accident involving a Vietnamese submarine, Singapore’s 85m, 4,300t submarine rescue and support ship MV Swift Rescue will steam over with its submersible rescue vessel, Deep Search and Rescue Six (DSAR 6).

Singapore operates its own set of ex-Swedish diesel-electric submarines: 4 old but modernized and “tropicalized” Challenger/ Sjoormen Class boats, and 2 modern Archer/ Vastergotland Class Air Independent Propulsion boats that received similar treatment. Sources: RSN – Assets – Ships | RSN – Assets – Submarines | Singapore MINDEF, “Republic of Singapore Navy and Vietnam People’s Navy Sign Submarine Rescue Memorandum of Agreement”.

Submarine rescue agreement

August 21/13: SU-30s. Interfax and RIA Novosti report, and Vietnam confirms, that a new contract signed earlier this month will lead to the delivery of another batch of 12 SU-30MK2s by 2015. When added to 2 earlier contracts, Vietnam’s SU-30MK2 fleet will rise to 32 fighters.

Sources differ in their reporting of this contract’s value, worth $450 million or $600 million depending on whom you ask. The higher value is similar to the previous batch of 12 planes, and is probably the fully-loaded cost with support and parts, but excluding weapons. This is about the level of detail you can publicly expect from such countries. Communist Party of Vietnam.

12 SU-30MK2s

July 5/13: Submarines. Russia’s Interfax says that Vietnam’s 2nd submarine, Ho Chi Minh City, has returned to Admiralty Shipyards of St. Petersburg after series of sea trials. The 1st sub, Hanoi, was launched in August 2012 (vid. Aug 28/12 entry), and both are scheduled for handover to the Vietnamese Navy later in 2013. Earlier reports had targeted the end of 2012 for Haoi’s handover.

Note that the photograph in the linked article is not a Kilo Class sub. Thanh Nien News.

May 21/13: SU-30s. A Tuoi Tre News article offers some revealing information, alongside the classic Stakhanovite paeans.

“Living in rented houses, many of the [SU-30 maintenance] staff have to work as part time teachers in local schools to earn extra income for their families. They even use their own money to buy devices to test tools of their own invention before submitting ideas to leaders.”

Needless to say, economic conflicts of interest among the maintenance staff for your nation’s premiere air asset offers all kinds of potential vulnerabilities.

May 17/13: SU-30s. A Tuoi Tre News article discussed the propensity of Vietnamese pilots to stay in the aircraft and try to land, even if the failure is very serious. Materiel worth more than people? That does seem to be part of the attitude, but if so, it’s a long-standing predisposition:

“For example, three-star colonel and pilot Dao Quoc Khang managed to save his Su-27 when its engines broke down just seconds after taking off…. in April last year, captain and chief of Air Strike Regiment 935 Nguyen Xuan Tuyen and flight head Nguyen Gia Nhan saved a Su-30MK2 while they were on a regular patrol over East Sea and its engines suddenly stopped working when it was 600km from the coast. “….We told ourselves in our minds that we are responsible for keeping the US$50 million asset of the State in one piece. It is made from the labor of citizens. And we must protect it at any price, even if that means our lives,” pilot Tuyen said.”

In fairness, ejecting 600 km from the coast is near-certain death, given Vietnam’s limited search and rescue resources. So the brave and selfless-sounding justification doesn’t actually change their decision, and is the sort of thing you’d expect in an article that quotes political commissars with a straight face. Or is the mentality in the pilot’s justification real? That’s the interesting question.

March 29/13: Submarines. Rubin design bureau general director Igor Vilnit pledges to deliver the 1st Project 636M Improved Kilo Class submarine to Vietnam “in 2013 as scheduled.” Odd. Earlier reports from RIA Novosti (vid. Aug 28/12) had the handover taking place at the end of 2012.

The first boat has been built by Admiralteiskie Verfi shipyard in St. Petersburg, Russia, and is undergoing sea trials. All 6 boats are due for delivery by 2016. What isn’t addressed in these reports is Vietnam’s recruiting, training, infrastructure, and maintenance preparations. As Vietnam’s Australian neighbors have discovered the hard way, neglect of any of these 4 “invisible” elements leads to an undeployable submarine force. Vietnam has the advantage of beginning with a proven, tested submarine design, but in all other areas, they’re building from a very low foundation. RIA Novosti.

Oct 26/12: SU-34s? Phun.vn cites a report from the mysterious site “Periscope 2,” wherein it’s suggested that Vietnam plans to replace its fleet of 50 or so aged SU-22 strike aircraft with SU-34s, and that export approval will be given immediately, once it’s requested. The report also suggests that Saab JAS-39 Gripens will replace the VPAF’s even older fleet of 150 or so MiG-21s, that L-159s may replace existing L-39 trainers alongside Vietnam’s reported Yak-130 options, and that Vietnam may be interested in C295-AEW planes.

All of the above are possible, and militarily reasonable choices. Even the L-159 could be reasonable, if bought second-hand as a dual role trainer and MiG-21 fill in, to give the VPAF a dual Russian & Western fleet with appropriate weapon options. The thing is, “reasonable” doesn’t mean “likely”, and DID could find no other reports along these lines. Any of the non-trainer deals would be quite expensive, and Vietnam’s economy is a bit shaky these days. In addition, all of the non-Russian equipment would require export approval for American military items.

We throw this item in for reader interest, with a strong caution concerning its reliability. Phun.vn [in Vietnamese].

Aug 28/12: Submarines. Russia’s RIA Novosti reports that the Admiralteiskie Verfi shipyard in St. Petersburg has launched Vietnam’s 1st Project 636 diesel-electric submarine. The boat is due for handover to Vietnam by the end of 2012.

July 27/12: Political. Vietnam says that Russia can set up a base in Cam Ranh Bay, but it would be a maintenance base, not a military base. Vietnam is trying to promote Cam Ranh as a ship maintenance center, and has even worked on ships from US Military Sealift Command. Sources: RIA Novosti, “Vietnam Ready to Host Russian Maritime Base”.

June 21/12: Fighters. Vietnam is conducting air patrols over the disputed Spratly Islands, using its long-range Su-27 fighters.

“Hong Lei, spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, protested against the patrols by Vietnamese Su-27 fighters over the disputed Spratly islands in the South China Sea at a press conference in Beijing…. The flights by fighters from the Vietnam People’s Air Force over the Spratlys are routine and will continue, according to the Vietnamese military officials.”

State-owned China Radio International makes some valid points when it cites reasons not to be too concerned about Vietnam’s Su-27s: payload limitations, the lack of AWACS support for wider awareness and coordination, and the lack of mid-air refueling platforms. On the other hand, there’s no denying that the Su-27s and Su-30s offer Vietnam a leap forward in both air superiority and strike roles. With that foundation in place, it’s possible for Vietnam to begin closing some of the other gaps in coming years. Sources: Taiwan’s Want China Times, “Beijing downplays threat of Vietnam’s air force”.

March 29/12: Sub training from India? Singapore’s Asia Times:

“For full-scale underwater warfare training, it appears Vietnam will turn to India. The two countries have been engaged in high-level military talks with special emphasis on maritime cooperation. Since the Indian navy also employs Kilo-class submarines, New Delhi would be well suited to train Vietnamese crews. China responded warily to this bilateral warming trend in both words and deeds when a Chinese warship reportedly confronted an Indian navy vessel leaving a Vietnamese port in August… Moscow will reportedly build a submarine base for Vietnam at strategic Cam Ranh Bay, a one-time American and later Soviet naval base…”

Feb 15/12: Kh-35. RIA Novosti reports that Vietnam will begin joint production of a modified SS-N-25 Switchblade/ Kh-35 Uran subsonic anti-ship missile, whose base characteristics are similar to the American xGM-84 Harpoon. The project is described as similar to joint Russian-Indian production of the PJ-10 BrahMos missile, which was derived from the supersonic SS-N-26 Yakhont.

The Kh-35 can be launched from Ka-27 naval helicopters, ships, or shore batteries, but haven’t been integrated with Vietnam’s new SU-30MK model fighters, or its forthcoming Kilo Class submarines. Even so, this joint venture will give Vietnam assured low-cost production and support for an important element of naval deterrence in the South China Sea.

The Kh-35 looks set to become Vietnam’s mainstay anti-ship missile for its navy, and a joint project also gives them a base to make changes. India undertook to integrate Brahmos with its Su-30MKI fighters, for example, and Vietnam’s air force may have similar plans for their modified Kh-35 project. The urge to use locally-built weapons in new ships also seems to be deep-seated. Kilo Class submarines are already configured for 3M54 Klub family (SS-N-27) missiles, and only time will tell what the Vietnamese plan to do with this shared technology.

KH-35 missile partnership

2009 – 2011

Vietnam orders 6 Improved Kilo Class subs, 12 SU-30MK2 fighters, 2 Gepard Class ASW frigates; 2 Gepard/ Dinh Tien Hoang Class surface warfare frigates delivered; Vietnam begins building Molniya FACs locally; China’s underwater neighborhood getting crowded. Gepard 3.9, 2-view
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Dec 7/11: ASW Frigates. Rosoboronexport and the Zelenodolsk Gorky Plant have finished shipping Vietnam’s 1st 2 Gepard Class frigates, and have just signed a contract for 2 more. That isn’t a surprise, as reports from March 2010 were already discussing a set set. Unlike the first set, however, this next 2 will concentrate on anti-submarine warfare, rather than surface attack missions.

Vietnam’s example may also be creating ripples in the region. Gorky Plant Deputy Director Sergei Rudenko adds that Vietnam’s neighbor Cambodia has expressed its own interest in the Gepard Class. Interfax-AVN.

2 more Gepard Class frigates

Oct 25/11: FACs. Vietnam is beginning to get assembly kits and components for its Molniya/ Project 12418 missile-armed fast attack craft. They’re working under the technical supervision of the “Almaz” Central Maritime Design Bureau in St. Petersburg, and the OJSC Vympel shipbuilding plant. Russia has built 2 for Vietnam, and Vietnam is building its first 4 boats of class, with an option for 4 more. The ships are small, at just 550t full load, but they pack a very dangerous set of 4 Moskit/ SS-N-22 Sunburn supersonic anti-ship missiles, or 8 of the sub-sonic Kh-35E anti-ship missiles.

Deliveries of parts to Vietnam, which began in 2010 under a $30 million contract, will continue through 2016. ITAR-TASS (Google Translate).

Vietnam begins assembling FAC boats

Oct 20/11: Patrol boats. Vietnam signs acceptance certificates for the last 2 of 4 Project 10412/ Svetlyak Export Class patrol boats at Almaz Shipbuilding Firm. The 390t class was originally developed for the KGB’s border guards, mounting an AK-176M 76.2mm cannon, an AK-630 30mm gatling gun, and a mount for very short range SA-16/SA-18 anti-aircraft missiles.

The first 2 ships were delivered to Vietnam in 2002, and the 2 follow-on order ships were laid down in June 2009. Unfortunately, repeated issues with key components, including the Arsenal AK-176M gun mounts, delayed construction. The ships will be moved to St. Petersburg, and embarked on a transport ship for shipping to Vietnam. RusNavy.

Aug 22/11: Frigates. The Gepard Class frigate Ly Thai To [HQ-012] arrives at Cam Ranh Bay. Sources: Defense News, “Vietnam Receives Second Russian-Made Frigate”.

March 5/11: Frigates. The Vietnamese Navy officially accepts the 1st Gepard class frigate from Russia, naming it the Dinh Tien Hoang, after the first Vietnamese emperor. Vietnam became the class’ 1st export order with a contract for 2 ships in December 2006, and the HQ-011 Dinh Tien Hoang was launched in August 2009. HQ-012 Ly Thai To, the 2nd frigate in the order, was launched in March 2010, and has been in sea trials since August 2010.

The Gepard 3.9 ships are a combined diesel-turbine export version of Russia’s Project 11611 (Tartarstan) frigates, which serve in the Caspian fleet. The 102m/ 2,100t design sits in the grey area between small frigates and large corvettes, and despite their 5,000nm endurance, they’re best suited to local maritime patrol and interdiction. Their stealth-enhanced ship design and sub-sonic Kh-35E anti-ship missiles make them potentially dangerous adversaries in littoral regions, and other armament includes 76mm and 30mm guns, 533mm torpedoes, depth charges, and a 9K33M “OSA-M”/SS-N-4 missile system for air defense. This size and weapons array may not be much to get excited about, relative to other international frigate designs, but it will make them Vietnam’s most capable combat ships. DatViet report [Google translate] | AvWeek Ares.

Gepard Class frigate accepted

March 27/10: RIA Novosti reports that Chinese admirals are beginning to grasp the implications of advanced diesel-electric attack submarines in the hands of several regional neighbors, located right near China’s shipping lifelines.

Vietnam’s Kilo Class, Malaysia’s Scorpene Class, and Singapore’s Vastergotland Class submarines are all on China’s Southeast Asian radar. In the background, Indonesia continues to express its intent to buy Kilo Class submarines of its own.

Postscript: Indonesia eventually ended up buying a modern South Korean variant of the German U209.

March 25/10: Submarines. It’s good to be a good customer. Russian defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov says that Russia will help Vietnam build the submarine base it needs to house its new Kilos, provide a loan to help buy rescue and auxiliary vessels and planes for Vietnam’s navy, and build a ship repair yard. That yard would benefit the Russians, too, as it could service visiting Russian navy ships.

Vietnam’s geographic position could make its service yard attractive to other navies as well, giving other countries even more reason to focus on relations with the Southeast Asian nation. A good service yard could wind up being as important to Vietnam’s geo-political position as the submarines themselves. Associated Press | China’s Xinhua.

March 23/10: Russia’s Voice covers growing ties between Russia and Vietnam, which is becoming one of Russia’s biggest arms customers:

“Vietnam backs multilateral cooperation with Russia especially in military defense, stated Vietnam’s president Nguyen Minh Triet during talks with Russia’s Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov in Hanoi. “Each of Russia’s victories is like our own, the president said, and we support Russia in the Georgian conflict.” The president said that the US decision not to deploy its ABMs in Eastern Europe is also a victory for Russia… Anatoly Serdyukov noted that Vietnam is Russia’s strategic partner and Russia is ready to train Vietnamese personnel at the Russian Defense Ministry’s academies.”

March 16/10: Frigates. Russia’s Zelenodolsk PKB shipyard launches Vietnam’s 2nd Project Gepard 3.9 light frigate into the River Volga. In May 2010, the warship will sail to St. Peterburg and then travel by sea to Vietnam for sea trials. The 1st ship in the order was launched in August 2009.

A separate report indicates that Vietnam could be preparing to order 2 more light frigates of this type. ITAR-TASS [in Russian] | ITAR-TASS Arms [in Russian].

Feb 10/10: SU-30s. Interfax reports the signing of a formal contract between Russia and Vietnam for 12 SU-30MKK fighters, for delivery in 2011-2012, plus associated weapons, service, and support. The deal is reportedly worth $1 billion, and is signed the day after a Russian contract to build Vietnam’s first nuclear plant.

The exact state of the contract is less than clear, so we’re sticking with Dec 15/09 as the date. Agence France Presse | AP | RT | Straits Times.

SU-30MK & SU-27SK
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Dec 15/09: Shortly after Vietnam makes its defense white paper public, reports indicate that it has ordered 6 Improved Kilo Class submarines and 12 SU-30MKK fighter jets from Russia, during a visit to Moscow by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung.

Russia’s Interfax news agency quoted an unnamed Defense Ministry official on Dec 15/09, who said the submarines were improved “Project 636” types, and gave the deal’s value at of $2 billion, with delivery taking place at a rate of 1 submarine per year. The Sukhoi Su-30MK2 fighter jet deal was valued at $600 million, and would raise Vietnam’s SU-27/SU-30 family fleet to 20 fighters.

Vietnam also invited Russia to help build its 1st nuclear power plant, and hopes to begin construction in 2014 and put it on line by 2020. The country has been growing its manufacturing capacity in recent years, partly at China’s expense, and needs to improve its electric grid in tandem. Vietnam’s Thanh Nien News | RIA Novosti | Agence France Presse | Associated Press | BBC News | China’s Xinhua | Agence France Presse analysis.

12 SU-30s & 6 Improved Kilo submarines

Dec 4/09: Russia’s RIA Novosti reports:

“According to the Vedomosti business daily, Moscow and Hanoi are close to sign deals on the purchase of six Kilo class diesel-electric submarines and 12 Su-30MK2 Flanker-C multirole fighters. The submarine contract, worth an estimated $1.8 billion, includes the construction of on-shore infrastructure and training of submarine crews and will be the second largest submarine contract concluded by Russia since the Soviet era after the 2002 deal on the delivery of eight subs to China.”

April 27/09: Initial media reports. The submarine deal’s value is reported to be around $1.8 billion, and the SSKs would be built at Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg. In addition to submarines, the Vietnamese Navy order is said to include new heavyweight torpedoes and missiles (most likely Klub family) to arm them.

This is a big step forward. There have been rumors that Vietnam owns 2 ex-Yugoslav mini-submarines for use in commando operations, but the Vietnamese People’s Navy doesn’t own any full size submarines that can take on enemy subs and ships.

Some of the Russian reports note that these 6 submarines were once planned for Venezuela, adding that Russia’s Rosoboronexport canceled the deal following Hugo Chavez’ meeting with US President Barack Obama. That must be judged an extraordinarily thin public rationale for canceling a $1.5+ billion purchase. A sinking global oil market, and Venezuela’s growing economic dependence on its declining oil production for revenue, are far more likely reasons for any delay and/or shift. See: RIA Novosti | MosNews | St. Petersburg Times | Singapore Straits Times | Defpro.

Additional Readings

• Haze Grey – World Navies Today: Vietnam

• Naval Technology – SSK Kilo Class (Type 636) Attack Submarine, Russia

• Rubin Design Bureau – Project 636. “Improved Kilo”/ Varshavyanka Class.

• Zelenodolsk Shipyard – Frigate of 11661 project “Gepard – 3.9”

• Air Force Technology – Su-30MK Multi-Role Two-Seater Fighter Aircraft, Russia

• Army Technology – T-72S Main Battle Tank, Russia

• The Armor Site – Russian T-90/T90S Main Battle Tank

• Military Today – Achzarit Heavy Armored Personnel Carrier. An option for converting the large fleet of T-55s?

News and Views

• Unbiased Jottings (April 1/13) – Maritime Contours: India – Vietnam & India-Japan Relationships. The site is by Indian Rear Admiral S Kulshrestha (ret.)

• Tuoi Tre News (May 21/13) – Caretakers of Sukhoi jet fighters in Vietnam

• Tuoi Tre News (May 17/13) – The ‘Air cobra’ of Vietnam’s air force

• The Diplomat (Nov 1/12) – Vietnam’s Underwater Anti-Access Fleet

• Reuters (Feb 10/12) – Vietnam seen courting Western arms deals. Israel is also in this mix, and can leverage experience with nearby clients in India, Thailand, and Singapore.

• DID (Oct 30/11) – More than the Sum of Its Parts: Dutch SIGMA Ships for Vietnam?

• DID (May 5/10) – Vietnamese Navy Orders DHC-6 Twin-Otter 400s. The durable float planes are a clever choice for short-range maritime surveillance.

• Reuters (Dec 14/09) – U.S. eyes Vietnam, Libya arms sales. The focus at this point is on “non-lethal” equipment, in Vietnam’s case, the focus is on maritime patrol aircraft, coastal radar systems, and English language training..

KODEF ’11 slide
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South Korea has been thinking seriously about designing its own fighter jet since 2008. The ROK defense sector has made impressive progress, and has become a notable exporter of aerospace, land, and naval equipment. The idea of a plane that helps advance their aerospace industry, while making it easy to add new Korean-designed weapons, is very appealing. On the flip side, a new jet fighter is a massive endeavor at the best of times, and wildly unrealistic technical expectations didn’t help the project. KF-X has progressed in fits and starts, and became a multinational program when Indonesia joined in June 2010. As of March 2013, however, South Korea has decided to put the KF-X program on hold for 18 months, while the government and Parliament decide whether it’s worth continuing.

Indonesia has reportedly contributed IDR 1.6 trillion since they joined in July 2010 – but that’s just $165 million of the DAPA’s estimated WON 6 billion (about $5.5 billion) development cost, and there’s good reason to believe that even this development budget is too low. This article discusses the KFX/IFX fighter’s proposed designs and features, and chronicles the project’s progress and setbacks since 2008…

Changing Stories: The “F-33/ Boramae” KF-X Fighter Unofficial KF-X vid
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Unrealistic early visions of an F-35 class stealth aircraft developed on the cheap produced some attention-getting models, but they appear to have given way to the idea of a fighter with slightly better kinematic performance than an F-16C/D Block 50, along with more advanced electronics that include a made-in-Korea AESA radar, the ability to carry a range of new South Korean weapons under development, and a better radar signature. The Jakarta Globe adds that the plane is eventually slated to get the designation F-33.

The project goes ahead, the 1st step will involve picking a foreign development partner, and the next step will involve choosing between 1 of 2 competing designs. The C103 design’s conventional fighter layout would look somewhat like the F-35, while the C203 design follows the European approach and uses forward canards in a stealth-shaped airframe. It’s likely that the choice of their foreign development partner will determine the design choice pursued.

Either aircraft would be a twin-engine fighter weighing around 10.4 tonnes, with stealth shaping. In order to keep ambitions within the bounds of realism, KFX Bock 1 fighters would only have to meet the radar cross-section of the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet or Eurofighter Typhoon. Sources have used figures of 0.1 – 1.0 square meters.

Note that even this specification amounts to developing a plane similar to or more advanced than the JAS-39E/F Gripen, from a lower technological base, with less international help on key components, all for less development money than a more experienced firm needed to spend. South Korea’s own KIDA takes a similar view, questioning the country’s technical readiness for something this complicated, and noting an overall cost per aircraft that’s twice as much as similar imported fighters.

KFX Block 2 would add internal weapon bays. Present plans call for Block 1 would be compatible with the bays, and hence upgradeable to Block 2 status, but Block 1 planes wouldn’t begin with internal bays. The fighter’s size and twin-engine design offer added space compared to a plan like the Gripen, but this feature will still be a notable design challenge. Additional tolerance and coating improvements are envisioned to reduce stealth to the level of an F-117: about 0.025 square meters.

KFX Block 3 would aim for further stealth improvements to the level of the B-2 bomber or F-35.

No timeline has been discussed for Block 2 and Block 3 improvements. At this stage of the program, any dates given would be wildly unreliable anyway.

KF-X: Program & Prospects T-50 line
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The KF-X project remains a “paper airplane,” without even a prototype under construction. The program was reportedly postponed until April 2011 due to financial and technological difficulties, and now a second postponement appears to extend to June 2014. If South Korea elects to proceed at all. The ROK Agency for Defense Development says that if full-scale development begins in October 2014, the 1st KF-X Block 1 prototype flight wouldn’t take place until September 2020. Based on the history of other programs, the new plane would be hard pressed to enter service before 2025.

Indonesia is currently the only KF-X foreign development partner, with 20% of the project. The project is sometimes referred to as “IFX” (Indonesia Fighter eXperimental) in that country, whose huge archipelago leads them to value range. That could create a problem if the KF-X design shrinks, in order to present a lower cost profile.

Turkey is a big defense customer for South Korea, and discussions have been held concerning KF-X, but Turkey wanted more control over the project than a 20% share, and no agreement has been forthcoming. The TuAF is already committed to buying about 100 F-35As to replace its F-4 Phantoms, and many of its F-16s as well. They’re also investigating the idea of designing their own fighter, and have enlisted Sweden’s Saab to assist (vid. March 20/13 entry).

In the interim, KAI’s FA-50 is emerging as a low-end fighter to replace existing ROKAF F-5s and F-4s, and South Korea is scheduled to have its F-X-3 competition decided before the KF-X resumes. That could leave them with a high-end fleet plan of 80-100 stealth-enhanced F-15SE Strike Eagles, split between new buys and upgrades. It’s fair to ask where an expensive KF-X program would fit in that mix, especially when even on-budget performance of WON 14 billion for development and production could buy and equip over 110 more F-15SEs, instead of 130-150 “F-33s”.

ROK Flag

Moreover, if KF-X was developed, how big would the 2025 – 2040 export market really be? The Teal Group’s Richard Aboulafia is right that “The world fighter market needs a modern, F-16-class mid-market fighter.” With that said, even in a hypothetical market where F-16, F/A-18 family, Eurofighter, and Rafale production lines had all shut down, that would still leave South Korea competing for mid-tier purchases against China’s J-10, J-11, and “J-31”, Russia’s SU-35 and possibly its MiG-35, and Sweden’s JAS-39E/F.

On the other hand, KAI needs development work after the FA-50 is done. As one 2009 article asked, how far can industrial nationalism go? The next 18 months will offer an answer to that question.

Contracts & Key Events 2014-2016

K-FX C-501: no.
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May 27/16: General Electric is to provide its F414-GE-400 engines for South Korea’s KF-X fighter after beating a European consortium offering the Eurojet EJ2000. The deal is estimated to be worth up to $3.5 billion, and contracts are expected to be finalized and signed in June. Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd (KIA), who is developing the jet alongside Lockheed Martin, plans to develop and produce 170 twin-engined jets initially, with 50 destined for export to Indonesia.

April 21/16: South Korea looks set to decide on which engine provider will be selected for its KAI KF-X fighter as early as the end of the month. Suppliers looking to win the contract are European firm Eurojet Turbo GmbH and the US’s General Electric. Seoul is seeking to locally produce 120 twin-engine combat jets under the KF-X program that is estimated to cost some $16 billion. Deployment of the new planes is hoped to start in mid-2020 to replace its aging fleet of F-4s and F-5s.

January 25/16: South Korea’s KF-X fighter program has kicked off as officials from KAI, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA), Lockheed Martin, the Indonesian Defense Ministry and PT Dirgantara Indonesia (PTDI) met in Sacheon, South Korea for the first time. Six prototypes of the fighter will be produced by 2021 with completion of the development due for 2026. 120 fighters will be produced by 2032 to replace the F-4 and F-5 jets in service. Collaboration in the program sees Lockheed Martin provide twenty-one key technologies used in the US F-35 fighter and the government of Indonesia is to provide $1.4 billion toward research and development in the project. Seoul will spend $7.1 billion in the project’s development.

December 28/15: South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) is set to sign a development contract with Korea Aerospace Industries for the continued production of the indigenous KF-X fighter. The news follows the granting by the US government for the transfer of 21 technologies used in Lockheed Martin’s F-35 which had been the subject of much wrangling over the last number of weeks. Washington had denied the transfer of four key technologies back in April citing security concerns. The contract will see the production of six prototypes by 2025 with an expected 120 jets produced by 2032.

December 7/15: South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) has been accompanied by high level diplomats to discuss the KF-X fighter program with Lockheed Martin. The trip to the US follows the visit by Lockheed staff to Seoul last month to discuss the transfer of 21 technologies from their F-35 fighter jet. The inclusion of diplomats shows that Korea is looking to bolster their bargaining power amid the refusal to allow the transfer of four key technologies by the US government. DAPA claimed that they are capable of developing these four key technologies, but failure to secure the remaining 21 would be of serious consequence to the development of Korea’s own indigenous fighter.

November 19/15: Lockheed Martin staff are visiting South Korea this week to further discuss the transfer of technologies in relation to the development of the $6.9 billion KF-X fighter program. The talks come following a recent refusal by the US to allow the transfer of the four core technologies necessary for the program which could put the future of its development in jeopardy. Despite this, both Lockheed and the South Korean government are confident that the transfer of another 21 technologies will go ahead as planned with possibly some minor alterations to the technologies initially listed. The State Department however did approve the sale of 19 UGM-84L Harpoon Block II All-Up-Round Missiles and 13 Block II upgrade kits totally $110 million.

October 30/15: A subcommittee in South Korea’s Parliament has passed a $58.8 million budget for the country’s indigenous KF-X fighter program, with the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) planning to press ahead with the development of critical technologies required for the jet, despite the US State Department preventing F-35 prime contractor Lockheed Martin from exporting four key technologies to the country. The country’s Ministry of National Defense will also stand-up a KF-X project team to manage the development of these four technologies.

October 26/15: South Korea’s defense acquisition agency is reportedly planning to press ahead with development of the four key technologies required for the country’s KF-X indigenous fighter program, refused by Washington in April. South Korea is thought to be capable of finding replacements for three of these technologies; however the acquisition of an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar system is a particularly difficult problem for Seoul. It was thought that the technology would be transferred as part of offset arrangements for the South Korean F-35 acquisition, with Saab reportedly offering to develop an AESA solution for South Korea, unveiling a new radar system earlier this month.

October 21/15: South Korea’s president has fired the country’s senior presidential secretary for foreign affairs Ju Chul-ki following failure to secure the transfer of four key technologies from the US required for the country’s KF-X indigenous fighter program. The blockage of the technologies in April – subsequently confirmed by the South Korean government in September – has also led to a criminal investigation into a senior security official in the country, as US SecDef Carter publicly reiterated the refusal to transfer the critical technologies last week.

October 7/15: South Korea and Indonesia look set to sign a set of agreements later this month to cement the two countries’ industrial commitments to the collaborative development of the South Korean KF-X indigenous fighter program. The two states signed an engineering and development agreement in October 2014, which split the development costs 80-20 to South Korea. The two countries reiterated their commitment to the program in May this year. Meanwhile, the South Korean Defense Acquisition Program Administration announced on Tuesday that a separate organization will be established specifically to manage the KF-X program.

September 28/15: South Korea’s $6.9 billion KF-X program has hit a major speed bump with refusal by the US government to approve the transfer of four core technologies from F-35 prime contractor Lockheed Martin to the country’s defense procurement agency, with the South Korean government now confirming that Washington refused the transfer back in April. The Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) will now have to look elsewhere to acquire these technologies, which include an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, EO targeting pod, RF jammer and IR search and track system. Lockheed Martin promised to transfer 25 technologies to the country when it signed a Foreign Military Sales contract for 40 F-35s in September, with the homegrown fighter project seemingly now in jeopardy.

April 10/15: GE to push engines. General Electric is reportedly looking to supply jet engines for the South Korea KF-X program, submitting a proposal to Korea Aerospace Industries, following the company’s selection as preferred bidder at the end of last month. The F414 engines GE is proposing has previously equipped the US Navy’s Super Hornets and Growlers, the Saab Gripen NG and the Indian Mk II Tejas.

March 31/15: KAL eliminated. South Korean manufacturer Korean Aerospace Industries (KAI) was selected as preferred bidder today in the country’s indigenousKF-X fighter program, South Korean media reported today, beating a partnership of Airbus and Korean Airlines. KAI are expected to partner with Lockheed Martin for the $7.9 billion program, which will replace the existing Korean fleet of F-4 and F-5 fighters, as well as equip the Indonesian Air Force, which joined the project in 2010.

Feb 23/15: KAL partners with Airbus.
On February 22, Yonhap reported that KAL indeed signed an MOU with Airbus to present a join offer.

Jan 27/15: KAL prospects dim. After proposals were sought on December 23, one government official was quoted as saying that price may be a controlling factor. That probably presupposes that KAL’s international partners, like Boeing, were staying with them, as they can help make up for the leaner engineering department at KAL. But one report indicated that Boeing was pulling out. The consortium, also to have included Airbus, would have pushed a revised F-18 model.

Oct 15/14: F-35 & KF-16. Korean media report that a proposed $753 million price hike for BAE’s KF-16 upgrade deal could result in cancellation. Lockheed Martin waits in the wings, and is reportedly extending an offer that would include more technical help with the multinational KF-X fighter program if the ROKAF switches.

The US government is reportedly demanding another WON 500 billion (about $471 million) for unspecified added “risk management,” while BAE is reportedly requesting another WON 300 million ($282 million) to cover a 1-year program delay. The Koreans are becoming visibly frustrated and distrustful, and have said openly that the deal may be canceled.

Lockheed Martin’s angle is a spinoff from their recent F-35A deal, which will supply 40 aircraft to the ROKAF. Part of their industrial offsets involved 300 man-years of help designing the proposed KF-X. They were cautious about providing too much help, but they reportedly see enough benefit in badly wounding an F-16 upgrade competitor to offer another 400 man-years of support for KF-X (total: 700) if the ROKAF switches. Sources: Chosun Ilbo, “U.S. in Massive Price Hike for Fighter Jet Upgrade” | Defense News, “F-16 Upgrade: Problems With S. Korea-BAE Deal Could Open Door to Lockheed” | Korea Times, “Korea may nix BAE’s KF-16 upgrade deal”.

Sept 24/14: F-35A. DAPA agrees on a WON 7.3 trillion deal for 40 F-35A fighters. including technology transfer in 17 sectors for use in KF-X. Transfers will include flight control and fire suppression technologies, and this appears to have been the final part of the KF-X puzzle. DAPA is said to have finalized their WON 8.5 trillion KF-X development plan, but it still has to be approved.

Subsequent reports indicate that Lockheed Martin has limited its proposed help with KF-X to just 300 man-years, rather than the 800 desired. In exchange, they offered a very unusual offset: they would buy a military communications satellite for South Korea, and launch it by 2017. Lockheed Martin isn’t saying anything, but Thales is favored as the source, as they provided the payload for South Korea’s Kopmsat-5 radar observation satellite, and have played a major role in KT Sat’s Koreasat commercial telecommunications satellites.

Why wouldn’t Lockheed Martin, which makes these satellites itself, just built one? Because this way, it doesn’t have to deal with any American weapon export approval processes and restrictions, which would have delayed overall negotiations and might have endangered them. That’s a lot of effort and money, in order to avoid ITAR laws. Or added help for KF-X. Sources: Yonhap, “Seoul to buy 40 F-35A fighters from Lockheed Martin in 7.3 tln won deal” | Defense News, “F-16 Upgrade: Problems With S. Korea-BAE Deal Could Open Door to Lockheed” | Reuters, “Exclusive: Lockheed to buy European satellite for South Korea in F-35 deal”.

Aug 31/14: DAPA gave public notice of KF-X bids this month, with plans to pick the preferred bidder (likely KAI) in November 2014, and sign a system development contract in December 2014.

The estimated WON 20 trillion development and production cost for 120 fighters is giving South Korea pause, especially with the ROKAF’s coming fighter fleet shortage (q.v. March 26/14). Sources: Korea Herald, “Fighter procurement projects pick up speed”.

Aug 21/14: Engines. GE declares their interest in equipping the ROKAF’s KF-X. The firm already equips some ROKAF F-15Ks (F110), Korea’s own T/TA/FA-50 fighter family (F404), Surion helicopters (T700-701K), and many ROK naval ships (LM2500). The F404, LM2500, and T700 are all assembled locally in South Korea. GE is promising to expand aero engine technology cooperation, increase the component localization rate, and support KF-X exports via joint marketing, while ensuring that over half of KF-X’s engine components are locally assembled.

GE’s F404, F414, and F110 jet engines are all viable possibilities. The key questions will involve matching their engineering specifications to the new platform: space, weight and balance, fuel consumption vs. onboard fuel, and twin-engine thrust vs. expected weight.

GE competitor Pratt & Whitney’s F100 engine equips some ROKAF F-15Ks, and all of its F-16s. Sources: Yonhap, “GE eyes S. Korea’s fighter jet development project” | Joong An Daily, “GE wants in on new fighter jets”.

July 18/14: Twin-engines. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff endorse the plan to develop KF-X as a twin-engine fighter by 2025. That seems to pick the C-103/ C-501 (q.v. Feb 6/14), a twin-engine design that’s similar to the F-35 in overall shape. This decision an important step, but it isn’t a contract, or even a budget.

The state-funded Korea Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA) didn’t favor the twin-engine option, because they believed it would increase the fighter’s cost, and wouldn’t have a competitive edge. There actually is an edge for twin-engine fighters in a number of markets, because they’re less likely to crash due to engine failure. A country with large or remote areas to cover – Indonesia, for instance – will benefit from that choice. As for increases in cost, fighters like the Anglo-French Jaguar and Taiwan’s F-CK are smaller twin-engine planes that were successfully developed at reasonable cost. The key cost factor isn’t engines, it’s overall specifications.

With that said, this choice does rule out KF-X’s least-cost, least-risk C-501/ KFX-E design, which would have been derived from the single-engined FA-50 that’s currently in production at KAI. Sources: Defense News, “S. Korea Opts for Twin-Engine Fighter Development” | Reuters, “S.Korea military chiefs endorse $8.2 bln development plan for home-built fighters”.

JCS picks twin-engine C-103 design

March 26/14: Fill-ins. The ROKAF needs to retire its fleets of 136 or so F-5E/F Tiger light fighters, and about 30 F-4 Phantom fighter-bombers. Meanwhile, The F-16 fleet is about to begin a major upgrade program that will keep part of that fleet out of service. The F-X-3 buy of F-35As is expected to be both late, and 20 jets short of earlier plans. The KF-X mid-level fighter project will be even later – it isn’t likely to arrive until 2025, if it arrives at all. The ROKAF is buying 60 FA-50s to help offset some of the F-5 retirements, but the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) sees this combination of events leaving South Korea about 80 planes short.

FA-50 deliveries only began in August 2013, and foreign FA-50 orders from Iraq and the Philippines are beginning to take up additional slots on the production line. As such, the ROKAF may be leaning toward a quicker stopgap:

“The Air Force is considering leasing used combat jets as part of ways to provide the interim defense capability because replacement of aging F-4s and F-5s wouldn’t take place in a timely manner,” a senior Air Force official said, asking for anonymity. “As midlevel combat jets are mostly in shortage, the Air Force is considering renting 16 to 20 used F-16s from the U.S. Air Force…. “The U.S. Air Force stood down some F-16s in the wake of the defense spending cut affected by the sequestration,” another Air Force official said, asking not to be named. “Under current circumstances, we can rent F-16s or buy used ones.”

It will be interesting to see if the USAF will let the ROKAF lease, or just have them buy the jets at cut-rate prices. Sources: Yonhap, “S. Korea considers F-16 lease deal to replace aging jets”.

Jan 5/14: Budget. The Korea Times reports that the 2014 defense budget has appropriated KRW 20 billion (about $19 million) to finalize KF-X’s design. A subsequent report from Aviation Week describes conditions that might be difficult for KF-X to meet:

“The latest South Korean budget provides 20 billion won ($19 million) to continue KF-X studies in 2014, hedged by two major conditions—development cost must be capped at just under $8 billion and be complete by 2025, and the aircraft must be approved for export by the U.S. An international partner must be found and contribute a 15% investment.”

A decision between the available design options is possible by February, and would be followed by detail design work. With respect to US export approval, AW confirms that “Eurofighter is still trying to offer South Korea 40 Typhoons, along with support for KF-X.” Unlike Lockheed Martin’s expected assistance, the vast majority of Eurofighter GmbH technology would be beyond American export approvals. Unfortunately, the ROK military’s short-circuiting of DAPA’s fighter competition (q.v. Nov 22/13) will expand the scope of possible American KF-X export clearance interference. Korea Times, “Military to flesh own fighter jet plan” | Aviation Week, “Fast-Changing Trends In Asia Fighter Market”.

Feb 6/14: KAI’s official blog talks about the prospects for the K-FX. It clarifies that the design decision will be between the C-103, which is a twin-engine design similar to the F-35 in overall shape, and the FA-50 derived C-501/ KFX-E. Sources: KAI Blog.

2011 – 2013

Program halt lifted, as specs get clearer; Indonesia confirms, then faces a delayed program again; Turkey invited, but seem to be going their own way. KAI’s FA-50
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Nov 22/13: KF-X moved up. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff add urgency to proposed development of the local KF-X fighter, moving it from a long-range project to an intermediate-term project for development by 2020. Past timelines have given 7 years from the beginning of development to the end, which is already pretty fast. Even if KF-X receives follow-on approval and budgets, 7 years means development doesn’t end until 2022 or so.

They also announce that there will be no competition for F-X Phase III – the F-35 is the only option. As a result, Lockheed Martin is expected to lend its expertise to KAI for KF-X, as part of an industrial offsets program that will also include a new military communications satellite and a cyber-warfare training center. ROK’s Yonhap, “(LEAD) S. Korea decides to buy 40 Lockheed F-35s from 2018” | Aviation Week, “South Korea To Order 40 F-35s, Maybe 20 More Later” | E&T, “South Korea confirms F-35 fighter jet deal” | NY Times, “In South Korea, Delays Drag a Project to Build Homegrown Fighter Jets” | China’s Xinhua, “S. Korea picks Lockheed Martin’s F-35 as main fighter jet”.

Nov 5/13: Sub-contractors. Rockwell Collins is expressing interest in KF-X. They’re already a significant avionics supplier for existing T-50 family jets and Surion helicopters. Honeywell’s senior director of APAC Customer Business Mark Burgess:

“We are in discussions with KAI and Samsung Techwin to explore how Honeywell can contribute to the KF-X program.”

Oct 28/13: KF-X shrunk? Aviation Week reports that KAI has responded to the KF-X’s program’s stall with a smaller, single-engine “KFX-E/ C501” design that uses the F-35-style C103 design as a base, and proposes to reuse some systems from the FA-50. Overall weight would drop from around 11 tonnes to 9.3t (an F-16 is 8.9t), removing advance provision for an internal weapon bay, and leaving 2 underbody stations unused if a centerline fuel tank is carried.

Engine choices would involve the same PW F100 or GE F110 choice available to F-16s, leaving KFX-E vulnerable to US export bans. Avionics would come from LIG Nex1, and a Korean AESA radar with about 1,000 T/R modules and a claimed performance similar to the F-16E/F’s AN/APG-80 would be fitted. Unlike the F-35, the targeting pod would have to be carried externally, and self-protection antennas will be part of a carried package, rather than conformal. South Korea believes they can develop the targeting pod themselves, and they’ve already developed an ALQ-200K ECM pod that could be adapted for internal carriage.

The problem with all of this is that the design math is adverse. KFX-E’s ceiling offers poorer acceleration and range versus the F-16, a design that doesn’t appear to be optimized for maneuverability, and a radar that’s likely to be technically behind the ROKAF’s upgraded KF-16 fighters, all without the benefits of stealth in its initial configuration. The product would due to enter service the mid-2020s, and costs are difficult to predict but are unlikely to be less than a current F-16. This would augur poorly for exports, and makes the case for internal ROKAF adoption more difficult. Worse, launch partner Indonesia in particular values range, which would endanger their continued participation. KFX-E seems to be a formula that minimizes one type of risk, while increasing others. Sources: Aviation Week, “KAI Proposes Smaller KF-X Design” | IHS Jane’s, “ADEX 2013: KAI unveils new version of KFX fighter” (incl. picture).

July 30/13: Turkey. Hurriyet quotes “a senior official familiar with the program” who says that $11 – $13 billion would be a realistic development cost for Turkey’s planned TF-X fighter. That actually is a reasonable estimate for a 4.5+ generation machine, but even this figure adds $50 million per plane to a large national order of 200 fighters. Keeping costs within the official’s $100 million per plane target will be challenging, which means a 200 jet program would cost Turkey $31 – $33 billion if everything goes well. Which won’t happen, especially if Turkey pushes for ambitious specifications.

That math offers daunting odds for a national jet program, and much of the same math can be expected to apply to KF-X. Will sticker shock cause Turkey to take another look at collaboration with Korea? Push them to abandon TF-X and buy something else? Or just be ignored by local politicians looking to make big promises? Hurriyet Daily News.

May 23/13: EADS. EADS Cassidian reportedly announces that they would invest $2 billion in the K-FX fighter development project, and help market the plane internationally, if the Eurofighter is chosen for F-X-3. Investments would include a maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO) facility that could extend to the KF-X, and an aerospace software center.

It isn’t a bad idea for EADS. Barring multiple orders from new sources, it’s very unlikely that the Eurofighter will still be in production by 2022. Upgrades and maintenance will continue for some time, but the C-203 KF-X design could offer EADS a new option to sell, with a fundamental design that can improve toward stealth fighter status. The question is whether South Korea wants to go forward. Yonhap News.

May 16/13: Indonesia. Indonesian Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro says that they remain committed to the KFX/IFX program. The Jakarta Post:

“We have told our South Korean counterparts that we will continue doing our part. Whatever their decision is, and whatever technology they focus on, we will follow their lead and our 20 percent of share will remain,” Purnomo said…. TB Hasanuddin of House Commission I on defense and foreign affairs, said that about Rp 1.6 trillion ($164.8 million) was already spent on the project.”

The question is whether South Korea chooses to pick up the project again, after the 18-month delay is over.

April 29/13: Details. Aviation Week recaps the ROK ADD’s KF-X plan (q.v. Feb 18/13 entry), and quotes “a former air force officer who has been involved in planning for KF-X” to say that radar cross-section for Block 1 will be between 0.1 – 1.0 square meters. It adds that the choice between the conventional layout C103 and C203 canard design probably comes down to the development partner Korea chooses: C103 if American, C203 if European.

Candidate engines for the twin-engine design are reportedly the GR F404 used in the FA-50, Eurojet’s EJ200 used in the Eurofighter, or GE’s F414 used in the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, JAS-39E/F Gripen NG, and India’s Tejas Mk.II. Snecma’s M88, used in Dassault’s Rafale, reportedly isn’t a candidate. Aviation Week.

April 5/13: South Korean media detail a proposal from EADS to produce 80% of F-X Phase 3’s 60 fighters at KAI, if DAPA picks their Eurofighter. The Yonhap report also discusses this potential industrial boost for KAI in the context of the KF-X program,:

“Many have been calling on the Park Geun-hye administration to promptly make a decision to either go ahead with the large-scale airplane development project or put on the brakes if it is deemed economically unsustainable.”

The rest of the Yonhap report may be switching contexts to the F-X-3 high-end fighter acquisition, as it describes a decision to be made by June 2013, as part of a renewed emphasis on major defense projects in light of North Korea’s actions. That doesn’t entirely track with previous reports that place resumption of KF-X at June 2014, if it happens at all. It does track with reports concerning the F-X-3 program, so the confusion could just be poor writing. What is true is that provocations from North Korea are very much a double-edged sword for KF-X. On the one hand, they boost the idea of defense spending generally. On the other hand, they raise needs like anti-submarine warfare, missile defense improvements, etc. that will be higher priorities than KF-X. Yonhap News Service | Hankoryeh.

March 20/13: Turkey. The Turks appear to be picking an independent course toward their future fighter aircraft, in line with rumors that they wanted more control than the KF-X program could give them. Their SSM signed an August 2011 deal with Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) to carry out the conceptual design work, and recent reports add a preliminary agreement between TAI and Saab Group for technical assistance. Reports add that TAI is expected to acquire Saab’s aircraft design tools, which would make cooperation much easier.

These moves don’t completely rule out KF-X participation, but they do weight the odds the other way. Defense Industry Undersecretary Murad Bayar says that Turkey’s project began in 2012, adding that after some modeling trials, one of the designs has matured. After completing the design phase, the undersecretary will offer a program plan to Turkey’s Defense Industry Executive Committee.

Turkey faces some of the same dilemmas as South Korea. If 2023 is the first flight date for a 4.5 generation fighter, there’s a real risk that the design will be outmoded from the outset. On the other hand, designing and prototyping an indigenous jet from scratch takes time, and technical overreach versus current capabilities is incredibly risky. One “top official from a Western aircraft maker” told Hurriyet that Turkey may already be headed down that path: “…we had to step back when we understood that the technical requirements for the aircraft are far from being realistic.” Hurriyet | Hurriyet follow-on | AIN.

March 1/13: 2nd Delay. Indonesian Defense Ministry official Pos Hutabarat confirms that KF-X has been postponed by 18 months to June 2014, while President Park Geun-hye decides whether to continue the project, and secures Parliamentary approval for that choice. Indonesia signed a 2010 MoU to become part of the project. Reports indicate an investment to date of IDR 1.6 trillion (about $165 million), with 30 PT Dirgantara Indonesia engineers at KAI working on the project.

UPI says that the KFX/IFX fighter’s price has already risen to $50-$60 million per aircraft, and this is before a prototype even exists. That’s already comparable to a modern F/A-18E/F Super Hornet or JAS-39 Gripen, in return for hopes of similar performance many years from now. Jakarta Globe | UPI.

2nd program delay

Feb 18/13: Details. Aviation Week reports that the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis has given KF-X a sharp negative review, even though it’s a defense ministry think-tank. In brief: the ROK isn’t technologically ready, and the project’s KRW 10+ trillion cost will be about twice as much as similar imported fighters. The 2013 budget is just KRW 4.5 billion, to continue studies.

Those studies are coming to some conclusions. The ROK ADD would still have a pick a design if they go ahead: either the conventional C103 fighter layout, or the C203 design with forward canards. Either aircraft would be a twin-engine fighter weighing around 10.4 tonnes, with stealth shaping. Bock 1 would only have to meet the radar cross-section of the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet or Eurofighter Typhoon. Block 2 would add internal weapon bays, which Block 1 would be compatible with but not have. Additional tolerance and coating improvements would reduce stealth to the level of an F-117. Block 3 would aim for further improvements to the level of the B-2 bomber or F-35.

The ROK Agency for Defense Development says that if full-scale development begins in October 2014, the 1st KF-X Block 1 prototype flight would take until September 2020. Based on the history of other programs, the new plane would be hard pressed to enter service before 2025. Aviation Week.

Oct 27/11: KF-X specs. Fight International:

“In 2013, South Korea and two national partners will start developing a medium-sized and probably twin-engined fighter. It will be more agile than a Lockheed Martin F-16, with an advanced sensor suite and fusion software on a par with the US company’s new-generation F-35. Aiming to enter operations in 2021, the new design will also carry a bespoke arsenal of indigenous missiles and precision-guided munitions. That is the vision for the KF-X programme, outlined on 21 October at the Seoul air show by South Korean government and academic officials.”

DAPA’s technical requirements reportedly include an AESA radar and onboard IRST (InfraRed Search and Track) sensors, standard fly-by-wire flight and HOTAS (hands on throttle and stick) pilot controls, an NVG-compatible helmet-mounted display, and sensor fusion to the large screen single display. That last bit is especially challenging, and DAPA acknowledged that foreign partners will be needed. They hope to begin flight tests in 2016-2017, with an 8-year system development phase and a 7-plane test fleet (up from 5 prototypes at the Indonesian MoU).

Under this vision, South Korea’s LiG Nex1 would also develop a compatible line of short and medium range air-to-air missiles, strike missiles, and precision weapons to complement DAPA’s 500 pound Korea GPS guided bomb (KGGB). That array will expand global weapon choices if DAPA follows through, but the challenge will be getting them integrated with other countries’ aircraft. Ask the French how that goes.

KF-X specs

July 14/11: Indonesia confirmed. About a year after the MoU, The secretary general of Indonesia’s defence ministry, Erris Heriyanto, confirms the MoU’s terms to Indonesia’s ­official Antara news agency. KAI EVP Enes Park had called Indonesia’s involvement unconfirmed at the November 2010 Indo Defence show, but the Antara report appears to confirm it.

Turkey unveiled indigenous fighter plans of its own in December 2010, with the aim of fielding a fighter by 2023, but they haven’t made any commitments to KF-X. Flight International.

April 2011: Postponement of the KF-X project is reportedly lifted, as South Korea gets a bit clearer about their requirements.

Resumed

2008 – 2010

Reality check scales back specs, before indecision suspends program; Indonesia signs MoU. T-129: Quid pro quo?
(click to view full)

Dec 27/10: Yo-yo. South Korea’s Yonhap News agency reports that South Korea’s military is trying to swing KF-X back to a stealth fighter program, in the wake of North Korea’s Nov. 23 shelling on Yeonpyeong Island.

Subsequent reports indicate that the uncertainty about KF-X requirements leads to a program halt, until things can get sorted out. Yonhap.

Aug 9/10: Turkey. DAPA aircraft programs director Maj. Gen. Choi Cha-kyu says that Turkey is actively considering the K-FX fighter program, and would bear the same 20% project share as Indonesia if they come on board.

There are reports that in return, Turkey wants the ROK to pick the T-129 ATAK helicopter under the AH-X heavy attack helicopter program. Turkey bought the A129 Mangusta design from AgustaWestland, as part of a September 2007 contract to build 51-92 helicopters for the Turkish Army. Korea Times | Hurriyet.

Now: TNI-AU F-16A
(click to view full)

July 15/10: Indonesia. Indonesia signs a Memorandum of Understanding to participate in KF-X. They’ll pay 20% of the estimated WON 5.1 trillion (about $4.1 billion) development effort, with 5 prototypes to be built before 2020, and commit to buying 50 of the fighters. South Korea has only committed to 60% of the development cost, which leaves 20% in limbo. DAPA’s KF-X program director Col. Lee Jong-hee says:

“There are two options on the table. One is to lure financial investments from other nations, such as Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. The other is to receive investments from Western aircraft makers wishing to participate in the KF-X.”

The Indonesian agreement follows a March 2009 Letter of Intent that was co-signed by South Korean President Lee Myung-bak. Indonesian MPs urged the government to conduct a feasibility test beforehand, but that wasn’t done. Key issues from Indonesia’s point of view include KF-X’s adequacy for the TNI-AU’s needs; technical and fiscal feasibility; technology and cost risk; the benefits to Indonesia’s aviation industry, given a break-even set by Aviation Week at 250-300 fighters for under $41 million each; and the role of 3rd country tech for engines. etc. which could still leave the fighters subject to foreign embargoes. Defense News | Jakarta Post.

Indonesia joins the program

Sept 12/09: KF-X drivers. Aviation Week offers their take on KFX’s positioning and industrial drivers:

“South Korea has decided that it can’t afford to build a cutting-edge stealth fighter…. it is considering building a gen-4.5 fighter, which might emerge as a jazzed up Typhoon or Super Hornet…. KFX would go into service in the early 2020s, perhaps a quarter of a century behind its technology level.

….Korea Aerospace will run out of fighter development work in a few years when the FA-50 is finished. It presumably does not have the technology to step straight from that to a combat drone. And it can’t spend next decade building up skills with an improved, single-seat FA-50, because the air force wants bigger aircraft…. the KFX would perhaps be an extreme example of sacrifices made in the name of self reliance or, perhaps, nationalism.”

July 23/09: KF-X. Defense News reports that “South Korea Drops 5th-Generation Fighter Plan,” but the title is misleading. The Weapon Systems Concept Development and Application Research Center of Konkuk University asked Boeing, Eurofighter, Lockheed Martin and Saab about their views on the per-plane cost estimate of $50 million, as well as budget-sharing ideas and technology transfer.

The problem is that South Korea’s specifications as described most closely mirror the ($150-180 million each, and $10+ billion development) F-22 Raptor, indicating that some reconciliation with reality is still necessary. The center will wrap up the feasibility study by October 2009, and DAPA is supposed to issue a decision on the KF-X initiative by year’s end. That will determine whether KF-X competes with/ supplants F-X-3, or proceeds as a separate program.

May 12/09: Changing gears. The Korea Times reports that the ROKAF’s Studies and Analyses Wing made an interim decision KF-X operational requirements in March 2009:

“Basic requirements call for a F-18E/F Super Hornet-class aircraft equipped with 4.5-generation semi-stealth functions, a domestically-built active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar [“based on accrued technologies from Israel”], a 32,000-pound of engine thrust and fully integrated weapons and sensors systems…. The KF-X aircraft would be either a single-engine fighter or a twin-engine one, [the source] added. It is the first time that KF-X operational requirements have been revealed.”

DAPA expects a final program decision around the end of 2009, and KF-X is expected to be part of the military’s 2010-14 force improvement package.

Jan 28/08: Reality check. The current program was scheduled to be followed by a KF-X program to develop and indigenous 5th generation/ stealth fighter to replace all F-5E Tiger IIs and F-4E Phantom IIs. After a feasibility study in 2008, the project would aim to produce the next-generation jets by 2020, with the goal of building 120 planes in a bid to secure proprietary technology and strengthen the country’s medium level fighter jet capacity. The goal is reportedly a single-seat, twin-engine plane with about 40,000 pounds of thrust from its engines, with more stealth than the Eurofighter Typhoon or Dassault Rafale, but less stealth than the F-35.

Now the Korea Development Institute has delivered a report concluding that the economic and industrial returns would be weak in proportion to its cost: about 3 trillion won/ $3 billion in returns, on a 10 trillion won investment. Papers quote foreign experts who estimate development costs of up to $12 billion. Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration said the KDI report was for reference only, and the project decision would include other factors such as export prospects and technological capacity.

$7 billion is not a sum to be thrown away casually, and the difference would be very noticeable within South Korea’s defense budgets. Options like partnering with EADS on a stealthier version of the Eurofighter, for instance, might lower development costs and offer an additional option. Nevertheless, with F-X-3 likely to select a stealthy platform, a merger with the K-FX program and negotiation of an industrial deal seems more likely. Especially given South Korea’s demographic crunch, which will begin to bite by 2020. Chosun Ilbo | Korea Times.

Additional Readings The KF-X Program

• Aviation Week – KFX Timeline. To 2013.

• Aviation Week (Feb 3/14) – Fast-Changing Trends In Asia Fighter Market

• Flight International (Oct 27/11) – IN FOCUS: South Korea outlines strategy for indigenous fighter.

• World Politics Review (Aug 13/10) – Global Insider: Indonesia-South Korea Joint Fighter Project (subscription). Says that KF-X will be based on KAI’s T-50, and aims to produce a fighter on par with the F-16C/D Block 50.

• Defense News (July 15/10) – Indonesia Joins South Korean Fighter Effort

• The Jakarta Post (July 12/10) – RI-S. Korea KFX cooperation: The second best option?

• Aviation Week (Sept 21/09) – A Generation 4.5 Fighter for the 2020s

Related Programs

• DID – Korea’s T-50 Family Spreads Its Wings. Some accounts have KF-X as an FA-50 derivative.

• DID – Korea’s F-X Multi-Role Fighter Buys: Phases 2 & 3. The ROKAF’s high-end fighter plans.

Americas

• It may have been coming for some time, but the Pentagon has finally admitted that the F-35 will not be cleared for full rate production until 2018. Frank Kendell, the program’s chief weapons tester, had been warning of delays for some time; however, it had been maintained by some that the jet’s initial operational test and evaluation (IOT&E) would occur as planned in August or September 2017. Now that reality has hit home, the extra six months will be spent retrofitting the 23 aircraft required for IOT&E with the full 3F software and hardware patches.

• USS John Paul Jones was used to validate the ability of the Aegis Baseline 9 to track Medium Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) targets within the Earth’s atmosphere recently. Supported by the Navy, Missile Defense Agency, and Lockheed Martin the use of the missile destroyer marks the first demonstration of Aegis’s ability to conduct a complicated tracking exercise against an MRBM during its endo phase of flight. The development comes as targets and threats have become more advanced, with Aegis BMD evolving over the last 20 years from a tracking experiment to today’s capability in which it can detect, track and engage targets.

Middle East North Africa

• Leonardo-Finmeccanica has announced that Pakistan will purchase an undisclosed number of AW139 helicopters for Search & Rescue missions. This will add to 11 already in service, and delivery is to commence in 2017. The contract is part of a fleet renewal program spread over several batches, including a logistic support and training package.

Europe

• Ukraine’s Antonov has been tipped as the favorite candidate in Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd’s. (HAL) medium military transport aircraft program. The company emerged as the frontrunner out of five bids received by the company after meeting all the necessary requirements alongside a recent design with state-of-the-art aviation systems like fly-by-wire, high-efficiency engines and all-weather operations. Antonov or AN class of aircraft have been part of the Indian Air Force (IAF) for over five decades. The IAF has more than 100 AN-32 aircraft recently upgraded on its inventory.

• Sweden’s air force looks set to advance a competition to select its new jet trainer to replace the service’s Saab 105 by the end of the decade. After an initial request for information was issued late last year, the air force and the state’s procurement agency now need to refine their exact needs for the right replacement. Sweden had initially expressed interest in participating in a proposed multinational Eurotraining project however that failed to materialize.

Asia Pacific

• An op-ed piece published last week, suggesting the US should supply AGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles to Japan has received a rebuttal from Chinese researchers. Experts from the China Institute of International Studies stated that while the idea of supplying the missile to Tokyo was not new, it would pose a threat to other countries in East Asia. The warning most likely comes following efforts started last year by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to pursue changing the country’s post-WW2 constitution to allow it to re-arm and expand its forces.

• Israel’s Rafael Advanced Systems looks set to win the Indian Army’s short-range surface-to-air missile (SRSAM) contest with its Spyder system. According to the Economic Times, the Spyder seems poised to win after offerings from Sweden’s Saab and Russia’s Rosoboronexport failed to comply with the Army’s requirements during technical trials. The competition has been running for five years.

Today’s Video

• The “Hell Cannon“: Homemade artillery of Syria’s rebel armies:

SPYDER Mobile Firing Unit
(click to view full)

Israel’s SPYDER air defense system follows a recent trend of using advanced air-air missiles designed for fighter jets as ground-launched surface-to-air missiles (SAM). This truck-mounted system mixes radar and optical tracking with any combination of short to medium-range Derby 4 and ultra-agile short-range 5th generation Python 5 air to air missiles, in order to create a versatile system adapted for a wider range of threats. Hence its inclusion in in our AMRAAM FOCUS article’s “international competitors” section.

India has become the system’s inaugural export customer. SPYDER will reportedly replace India’s Russian-made OSA-AKM/SA-8 Gecko and ZRK-BD Strela-10M/ SA-13 Gopher SAM systems, and the purchase has decisively shelved the Indian DRDO’s failed Trishul project.

More success may be on the way. As India’s Air Force gears up, the Army is reportedly about to follow suit with an even bigger contract.

The SPYDER System SPYDER Systems
(click to view full)

Each SPYDER ADS-SR Mobile Firing Unit can slant-launch up to 4 missiles in either lock on after launch (LOAL) mode, or lock on before launch (LOBL). This short-range version offers 360 degree quick engagement capability and 60-target tracking via IAI’s Elta EL/M 2106 ATAR 3D surveillance radar and TOPLITE optical sensor, a kill range of over 15 km, and openly advertised effectiveness from 20 – 9,000 meters (65 – 30,000 feet).

A new SPYDER ADS-MR 6×6 truck version was unveiled at Eurosatory 2006. It’s restricted to LOAL but offers 8 vertical-launch missiles in any mix, adds a dedicated radar vehicle with a more powerful radar, and puts boosters on all missiles, in order to improve advertised range to 50 km/ 30 miles, and performance to 16 km/ 52,000 feet.

A typical SPYDER squadron consists of 1 Mobile Command and Control Unit, plus 4 Mobile Firing Units with their own built-in power supplies and missile sets of 4-8 missiles.

Contracts and Key Events SPYDER MR vs. SR
(click to view full)

May 26/16: Israel’s Rafael Advanced Systems looks set to win the Indian Army’s short-range surface-to-air missile (SRSAM) contest with its Spyder system. According to the Economic Times, the Spyder seems poised to win after offerings from Sweden’s Saab and Russia’s Rosoboronexport failed to comply with the Army’s requirements during technical trials. The competition has been running for five years.

October 26/15: Vietnam has purchased [Vietnamese] SPYDER air defense systems, manufactured by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd. The surface-to-air missile system is capable of launching the company’s advanced Derby beyond visual range and Python-5 missiles, with it unclear whether the Vietnamese military has purchased the Short Range (SPYDER-SR) or Medium Range (SPYDER-MR) version, with respective ranges of 20km and 50km.

Aug 18/09: Indian Army’s QR-SAM. The Times of India reports that India’s Ministry of Defence has finally given the go-ahead for the army’s INR 40 billion (about $820 million) Quick-Reaction SAM program. These mobile missiles would protect Indian maneuver elements like armored columns and troop concentrations, as well as important areas and installations. The Army seeks to equip 3 regiments with this contract, which is over twice the size of the IAF’s 18 squadron purchase. The Times of India:

“With the indigenous Akash and Trishul air defence projects not meeting its “user-requirements”… The Defence Acquisitions Council, chaired by defence minister A K Antony, discussed the entire matter on Monday. Though there was no official word, sources said the Israeli SpyDer QR-SAM systems had been selected for the project.

…The projects were in a limbo for quite some time now, with one of the main reasons being the naming of Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Rafael in the Rs 1,160-crore Barak-I deal kickbacks case by the CBI. The government, however, was reluctant to blacklist these Israeli armament firms because it held that it would prove “counter-productive” since there were several “crucial” defence projects underway with them.”

Jan 20/09: SR-SAM – Revenge of DRDO? India Defence reports that neither MBDA nor India’s state-run DRDO have given up on their “SR-SAM” short range air defense proposal. Rumors peg it as a combination of DRDO’s Trishul and MBDA’s VL-MICA system, though Trishul’s failure and VL-MICA’s techologies mean that claims regarding Trishul technology are likely to be about saving face as much as anything else.

The “Maitri” LLQRM proposal’s positioning would be directly competitive with RAFAEL’s SPYDER, and VL-MICA is deployable as a mobile system. That could affect SPYDER’s future expansion within the Indian military, and might even affect its prospects if program problems crop up. MICA’s capabilities mean that SR-SAM/Maitri would also be directly competitive with India’s indigenous Akash, and might even impinge on the proposed medium range MR-SAM deal involving a longer-range Barak missile.

Dec 11/08: The Indian Ministry of Defence confirms that it has signed the Spyder contract – and canceled Trishul. Defence Minister Shri AK Antony, in a written reply to Shri Tarini Kanta Roy in Rajya Sabha:

“Ministry of Defence has signed a contract with M/s Rafael, Israel to procure Spyder Low Level Quick Reaction Missile System (LLQRM) for the Indian Air Force.

The proposal for Trishul system was foreclosed due to its inability to meet certain critical operational requirements. However, it served as a technology demonstrator and the expertise acquired with the technologies developed during design and development phase of Trishul Missile System are being utilized for developing state-of-the-art Short Range Surface to Air Missile System.”

Costs were not disclosed, though some reports place the deal at $260 million; previous reports of R 18,000 crore would be about $362 million at current exchange rates. Nor was the future composition of India’s Spyder force; Spyder systems now come in the 8-pack, booster-enabled SPYDER ADS-MR, and the 4-pack SPYDER ADS-SR. Indian MoD | domain-b.

Oct 13/08: DNA India reports that a new order from the Union government downgraded both IAI and RAFAEL’s position as weapon suppliers to India, and may place the Spyder contract in jeopardy. The issue is not expected to sort itself out until after the 2009 Parliamentary elections. Read “India Downgrades Vendor Status of IAI and RAFAEL” for more.

Sept 1/08: The Spyder contract was delayed for almost 2 years by political accusations, but those have apparently been put to rest. Defense News reports that a $260 million contract has now been signed with Rafael. The Indian Air Force will receive 18 Spyder systems, with deliveries beginning in early 2011 and finishing by August 2012. Unusually, the contract will not include any mandatory industrial offsets.

March 19/07: Reports indicate that MBDA is working on a deal with the DRDO, whose Trishul short range anti-aorcraft missile project continues to flounder. DRDO’s Defence Research and Development Laboratory (DRDL) would team with MBDA to develop a “new-generation low-level, quick-reaction missile (LLQRM) system” known as ‘Maitri’, for the Indian Navy and Air Force. India Defence.

The project is said to be worth $500 million and is to be signed in May between the Hyderabad-based DRDL and MBDA. It is retry to revive the work done under the unsuccessful Trishul LLQRM project,

October 2006: India Defence quoted Air Chief SP Tyagi as saying India is close to wrapping up a deal to purchase quick reaction surface-to-air missiles from Israel as a mobile air defense system. Under the deal, India proposed to buy 18 SPYDER (Surface-to-air PYthon and DERby) missile systems and accompanying missiles in a deal worth more than Rs 1,800 crores (18 billion Indian rupees, or about $395.4 million at the time). RAFAEL would be the prime contractor, and Israel Aircraft Industries the major subcontractor.

Additional Readings

• RAFAEL – SPYDER ADS-MR

• RAFAEL – SPYDER ADS-SR

• RAFAEL – Python 5: Full Sphere IR Air-to-Air Missile

• RAFAEL – Derby: Beyond visual Range Air-to-Air Missile

• Israeli Weapons – SPYDER

• Army Technology – SPYDER Surface-to-Air Python 5 and Derby Air Defence Missile System, Israel

• DID – India’s IGMP Missile Programs. Including the canceled Trishul and the medium range Akash SAM.

• DID – India & Israel Introducing MR-SAM. Based on a longer-range version of the Barak missile.

Americas

• USAF commitments to maintain 1,900 aircraft beyond 2021 may be in trouble according to the Pentagon’s annual aviation, inventory, and funding plan for fiscal years 2017 through 2046. Budget constraints across the armed forces are requiring the Air Force to retire more aircraft than it procures; with the report predicting the fleet to reach its lowest in point 2031. The report notes that the service plans to sunset John McCain’s beloved A-10 between FY18 and FY22, but hints that those plans “are subject to change,” while Congress’s desire to restart the F-22 Raptor production line looks increasingly like a non-runner.

• Huntington Ingalls has been awarded a $152 million US Navy contact for advance planning for the construction of the aircraft carrier Enterprise (CVN 80). The third aircraft carrier in the Gerald R. Ford class was named in honor of the Navy’s first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, USS Enterprise (CVN 65). Work to be carried out includes engineering, design, planning, and procurement of long-lead-time material, and will be performed at the company’s Newport News Shipbuilding division through March 2018. Construction is to commence in 2018 and be delivered to the Navy in 2027.

• Weapons testers upgrading the Northrop Grumman RQ-4B Global Hawk have commenced laser-printing simulated ice for ice-shape testing on the UAV. Using a process known as “selective laser sintering,” it is possible to characterize ice buildup on the aircrafts wings and V-tail, a common problem found on most aircraft. The testing will now allow operators to know the airframe’s exact tolerance to buildup when carrying different fuel loads. In use since the late 1990s, the USAF is looking to extend the UAV’s lifetime through to 2034 instead of early retirement.

Middle East North Africa

• Saab has announced increased interest in its configuration of a Bombardier 6000 business jet with the company’s GlobalEye system for the UAE. The $1.27 billion deal will see the heavily adapted Global 6000 to be capable of conducting airborne early warning and control (AEW&C), maritime and land surveillance, and electronic intelligence duties. Included in the package is Saab’s improved Erieye ER active electronically scanned array radar, now capable of a 70% greater detection range than its previous sensor, and the ability to spot challenging targets, such as cruise missiles, small unmanned air vehicles and hovering helicopters. Combining its below-fuselage mounted maritime search radar and electro-optical/infrared sensor will enable operators to locate surface threats and submarine periscopes, while its primary sensor’s synthetic aperture radar and ground moving target indication modes will be used to locate land targets.

Europe

• The first two Dutch F-35As have successfully landed in the Netherlands, marking the Joint Strike Fighter’s first eastbound transatlantic journey. Dubbed AN-01 and AN-02, the fighters were welcomed by a crowd of 2,000 including Minister of Defence Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert. The aircraft will now spend the next few weeks conducting noise and environmental tests over the country, designed to determine the levels of noise disturbance the residents experience. The jets will perform flights over the North Sea range and then appear and fly at the Netherlands’ Open Days in June.

Africa

• After showcasing its Parabot super robot at this year’s SOFEX in Jordan, South Africa’s Paramount Group is setting its sights on increasing their defense collaboration with US firms. With partnerships already existing with Boeing, Airbus, and firms in Kazakhstan and Jordan, Paramount’s founder, Ivor Ichikowitz, believes the company has much to offer the US defense industry, not just in supplying technology, but in philosophy, as the US attempts to rethink how it acquires defense capabilities. Having known nothing but government budget restrictions since its foundation in early post-Apartheid South Africa, Ichikowitz said, “We’ve always had to come up with technologies that give our customers the most capabilities for the least amount of money.”

Asia Pacific

• The Indian Defence Research and Development Organisation’s (DRDO) successful test-firing of an indigenous Advanced Air Defense (AAD) missile interceptor on May 15 is being called into question following claims that the launch didn’t occur in the first place. Initially it was claimed that the missile successfully tracked, engaged and destroyed a naval version of the Prithvi missile, which was fired to simulate an enemy target. However “informed sources” talking to The Hindu newspaper claim that the test was a failure as the interceptor was never launched. Perhaps its back to the drawing board for the DRDO, again.

Today’s Video

• Recording of the F-35A’s arrival in the Netherlands:

Arabian/Persian Gulf
(click to view full)

In November 2009, Saab announced a 1.5 billion SEK (about $220 million) contract from the United Arab Emirates for 2 of its Saab 340 regional turboprops, equipped with Erieye active-array radars that can scan large airspace volumes, and with related command and control systems. The Saab 340 AEW contract also includes ground equipment, initial spares, and support services.

The UAE is just the latest buyer of Saab’s Erieye system.

The Erieye, and Its Competitors cutaway view
(click to view full)

The Erieye family of Airborne Early Warning & Control aircraft offer of small size, lower purchase price, dual air/sea scan capabilities, and comparatively cheap operating costs are making it one of the world’s most popular AEW systems. The antenna reportedly provides coverage out to 450km, with a detection range of 350km even inchallenging conditions. The Erieye Ground Interface Segment (EGIS) provides a 2-way exchange of data via an associated “Link-E” datalink sub-system, and the plane’s capabilities can can also reportedly be used to support border control or even rescue operations.

The UAE joins Sweden, Pakistan, and Thailand, who have all ordered systems based on Saab’s S340/S2000 regional passenger turboprops. Brazil, Mexico, and Greece all ordered R-99As/ EMB-145 AEW&Cs that pair Erieye with Embraer’s ERJ145 regional passenger jets.

Key global competitors for Erieye systems include Boeing’s developmental E-737 ordered by Australia, South Korea, and Turkey; Israel’s Phalcon system (active on 707, IL-76, and Gulfstream G550 jets), and Northrop Grumman’s carrier-capable E-2 Hawkeye. That may become relevant, as some reports depict the Saab 340 Erieye as an interim system for the UAE, on the way to a final purchase of additional AWACS platforms.

The UAE’s aircraft order also fits into a regional trend, as the Emirates move to establish a leadership position within the Gulf Cooperation Council’s accelerating command-and-control efforts. Over time, the GCC’s ability to fuse the UAE’s efforts with local infrastructure like long range radars, Saudi Arabian 707-based E-3 AWACS/TASS planes, and other assets, may begin to produce cooperative situational awareness on a regional level.

Contracts & Key Events Thai S340 Erieye
(click to view full)

May 25/16: Saab has announced increased interest in its configuration of a Bombardier 6000 business jet with the company’s GlobalEye system for the UAE. The $1.27 billion deal will see the heavily adapted Global 6000 to be capable of conducting airborne early warning and control (AEW&C), maritime and land surveillance, and electronic intelligence duties. Included in the package is Saab’s improved Erieye ER active electronically scanned array radar, now capable of a 70% greater detection range than its previous sensor, and the ability to spot challenging targets, such as cruise missiles, small unmanned air vehicles and hovering helicopters. Combining its below-fuselage mounted maritime search radar and electro-optical/infrared sensor will enable operators to locate surface threats and submarine periscopes, while its primary sensor’s synthetic aperture radar and ground moving target indication modes will be used to locate land targets.

February 18/16: Following a custom $1.27 billion two-aircraft deal to provide an early warning and control (AEW&C) system to the UAE, Saab has officially launched the new early warning aircraft to the wider market. The GlobalEye combines the Erieye ER active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar with Bombardier’s Global 6000 business jet. The Erieye had been previously offered on the Embraer 145, Saab 2000 and Saab 340, but its incorporation on the Global 6000 will allow it much greater altitude and endurance capabilities, flying at 11,000 ft for 11 hours. The business jet will likely be armed with Saab’s RBS-15 anti-ship missile and a lightweight torpedo; possibly a EuroTorp weapon. Saab’s announcement comes as they look to provide maritime, land, and air surveillance capabilities to countries increasingly involved in anti-terrorism, anti-piracy, or territorial monitoring operations.

November 10/15: Saab has received an order for two additional Airborne Early Warning aircraft from the United Arab Emirates in a deal valuing $1.27 billion. The Swing Role Surveillance System (SRSR) will incorporate the company’s Erieye radar and other sensors aboard two Bombardier Global 600 business jet platforms. The UAE already operates two Saab Erieye-equipped AEW turboprop aircraft, ordered in November 2009 through a $220 million contract.

March 16/11: The Khaleej Times reports that Sweden’s Saab Group will deliver the 2nd S340 Erieye to the UAE slightly late, in April 2011. It quotes Swedish Ambassador Magnus Scholdtz as saying that “We’ve offered to the UAE to sell 4 more such aircraft… it is up to the UAE to decide.”

Nov 17/09: 1.5 billion SEK (about $220 million) contract for 2 of Saab’s S340 Erieyes announced. An official statement hinted at more orders to come, saying that:

“The UAE Air Force & Air Defence is currently evaluating several options to purchase permanent solution Command and Early Warning aircraft to meet the UAE Armed Forces operational requirements.”

Local defense media picked up on this theme amd noted the order’s interim status, pending a wider buy that could involve more Erieyes, Boeing’s 737 AEW&C, or Northrop Grumman’s new E-2D Advanced Hawkeye. Deliveries of the 2 Erieye planes are scheduled for Q3 2010, and Q1 2011. Saab [PDF] | Arabian Aerospace | Dubai Airshow 09 | Khaleej Times | UAE’s The National.

Additional Readings

• Saab Group – Erieye AEW&C Airborne Border Surveillance

• DID – UAE Looking to Become a Regional C2 Leader. They bought the required back-end ground systems for national command and control first, so they could make full use of AEW&C systems when they finally bought some. Smart.

• DID (Oct 11/10) – Saab’s Mysterious S-2000 AEW&C Customer? Saudi Arabia. Essentially the same plane & system as the UAE is buying.

• Aviation Week (Feb 13/08) – Low-Cost and Effective AEW Systems Find Buyers

• C4ISR Journal (Jan 4/08) – AEW&C contenders confident as UAE decision nears

Americas

• Lockheed Martin has been awarded a $331.7 million foreign military sales contract by the US Army. The sale will see the company provide the defense departments of Israel, Singapore, Finland and Jordan with the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) which includes 290 alternative warhead rocket pods, 34 unitary rocket pods and 529 reduced range practice rocket pods. Work and delivery of the system is expected to be completed by March 31, 2018.

• Sikorsky’s HH-60W Combat Rescue Helicopter is to move into the detailed design phase after successfully passing an air vehicle preliminary design review by the US government. The UH-60 Black Hawk variant will now enter a 75-month engineering and development phase which will see nine aircraft produced, including five “system demonstration test articles” to support operational testing. The design includes air force and mission-specific avionics, equipment and defensive countermeasures, plus a larger internal fuel capability and cabin area when compared to its UH-60 cousin and is unique enough to warrant its own development phase and even a separate assembly line.

Middle East North Africa

• British-made cluster bombs have been discovered in a village in northern Yemen, all but confirming that the banned munition is being used by the Saudi-led coalition in the region. The BL-755 cluster bombs, originally manufactured in the 1970s, were purchased by the air forces of Saudi Arabia and UAE to be used on the British made Tornado fighters. Locals described the ordinance as “hanging off trees”and are believed to have been there since air strikes in July and August.

• An advanced missile approach warning system has been integrated on Israeli CH-53 transport carriers, giving the helicopters an extended service life until 2025. Dubbed Dragon Block 3, the system provides 360 degree coverage alongside a more effective warning of missile attack and fast activation of countermeasures equipment. The troop transports have had their fair share of trouble from rocket attacks having seen extensive use in conflicts in south Lebanon and the Palestinian territory of Gaza.

Europe

• Russia’s Defence Ministry looks set to become the first customer of the Mil Mi-38 multi-role helicopter. The helicopter’s manufacturer Russian Helicopters made the announcement in a press release last week, and it is expected to pass a series of flight tests according to the ministry’s requirements. Designed to take part in a variety of missions, the Mi-38 is capable of carrying either troops or cargo as well as participating in search & rescue and offshore operations.

• Italy is to release $179.5 million toward the development of the Centauro II wheeled tank program by the consortium of Italy’s Iveco and Leonardo-Finmeccanica. An update of the older Centauro wheeled tank, it will include a new hull, better armor and upgunning to a 120mm gun compared to the 105mm found on the original. However the cash injection will be lacking in other programs with the planned arming of Italy’s UAVs to be postponed and only $23.5 million made available for procurement of the light-weight Freccia armored vehicles.

Africa

• Prosecutors in South Africa are to appeal a court ruling that they should reconsider corruption charges against President Jacob Zuma. 783 charges against the controversial president were dropped just weeks before the 2009 election in which he was elected. The allegations stem from a $5 billion arms deal in 1999 which involved companies from Germany, Italy, Sweden, the UK, France and South Africa. In 2005, Schabir Shaik, Zuma’s former financial advisor was jailed in connection with the deal after being found guilty of soliciting a bribe on behalf of the president.

Asia Pacific

• US President Barack Obama has announced the lifting of a decades long arms embargo on Vietnam. Speaking in Hanoi with Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang and under a looming bust of Communist leader Ho Chi Minh, Obama said that the move will end a “lingering vestige of the Cold War” and pave the way for more-normal relations between the two countries. The move comes as Vietnam looks to recenter allies amid a growing spat with China over ownership of islands in the South China Sea, while also looking to lessen their reliance on Russian weapons manufacturers, factors that may make Hanoi one of Washington’s new best friends in the region.

Today’s Video

• Boeing’s latest commercial for the Advanced F-15:

Americas

• Textron is currently testing their upgraded RQ-7 Shadow M2 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), which they believe will allow the system to undertake increased mission capabilities currently reserved for larger UAVs such as the MQ-1 Predator. At present, Shadow V2s are used by the US Army in conjunction with AH-64 Apaches to fill the armed reconnaissance mission, following the retirement of the OH-58 Kiowa Warrior helicopter. The Shadow M2 will add longer endurance, more capable payloads, and more power than the M2 version, and also gain a satellite uplink that allows it to communicate beyond-line-of-sight.

• USAF’s fleet of more than 500 F-15s are to get a wheel and brake upgrade after successful flight testing. Once completed, F-15C/D/E fighters will be capable of undertaking 1,400 landings before having to swap out their brakes. The USAF stands to save over $194 million in F-15 maintenance costs once all of the aircraft are fitted with the upgrade, and this will be the first brake testing to be carried out on the jet since the 1980s.

• A USMC MV-22 Osprey has given a successful ground refueling of a Marine F-35B Joint Strike Fighter. The one-hour test consisted of hooking up fuel transfer lines between the two aircraft with the MV-22 fueling the F-35B with an aerial refueling to follow. Both aircraft will be used to allow the Marine Corps to employ assets in austere environments on short notice without having to rely on long-term planning and fixed facilities.

• The Missile Defense Agency has awarded a $235.3 million contract to Millennium Engineering & Integration to provide advisory and assistance services for test, exercise, and wargames in support of technical, engineering, advisory and management support. This contract provides support for the development, implementation, sustainment, and assessment of test processes, procedures, plans, and policies to support the Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) through the test life cycle. Completion of the contract is expected for June 2020.

Europe

• The first prototype of the Ka-62 twin-engine helicopter successfully completed its maiden flight. Items tested on the multi-purpose rotorcraft included the main power supply systems and avionics during a ten minute hover flight at Progress Aircraft-Manufacturing Enterprise’s site in eastern Russia. Capable of undertaking a wide variety of missions, the Ka-62 has been designed for transportation, search and rescue, and for work in Russia’s oil and gas industry.

Asia Pacific

• Pakistan’s hope to procure subsidized F-16 fighters from the US has been scuppered by US Congress. State Department officials reported that if Islamabad wishes to purchase eight of the aircraft, it will cost up to $480 million, two and a half times the original cost. US foreign military financing of the deal had been criticized by many lawmakers who believed that Pakistan wasn’t doing enough to tackle Islamic militants operating in the country, and who would more likely use the F-16s against neighboring India than combating terrorism.

• Longbow LLC, a joint venture between Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman, has been awarded a contract by the Indian government to provide fire control radar (FCR) systems with advanced air and ground targeting capabilities. The $57.1 million contract will see Longbow install 12 systems on India’s AH-64E Apache attack helicopters, and could be worth up to $116.7 million. The FCR’s air over-watch mode provides aircrews with 360-degree situational awareness, improving survivability and mission success.

• Japan and the Philippines will conclude talks this week to lease five Beechcraft TC-90 Kind Airs from the Maritime Self-Defense Force to Manila. Japan’s Defense Minister Gen. Nakatani will call his Filipino counterpart Gazmin today, May 2nd to finalize the deal. The aircraft will help boost the Philippine’s maritime security efforts, particularly patrolling territory in the West Philippine Sea.

Today’s Video

• Turkey’s indigenous Bayraktar TB2 UAV successfully dropped a Roketsan MAM-L laser-guided glide bomb on April 29:

RQ-7 Shadow
(click to view full)

By 2007, US Army RQ-7 Shadow battalion-level UAVs had seen their flight hours increase to up 8,000 per month in Iraq, a total that compared well to the famous MQ-1 Predator. Those trends have gained strength, as workarounds for the airspace management issues that hindered early deployments become more routine. Some RQ-7s are even being used to extend high-bandwidth communications on the front lines.

The difference between the Army’s RQ-7 Shadow UAVs and their brethren like the USAF’s MQ-1A Predator, or the Army’s new MQ-1C Sky Warriors, is that the Shadow has been too small and light to be armed. With ultra-small missiles still in development, and missions in Afghanistan occurring beyond artillery support range, arming the Army’s Shadow UAVs has become an even more important objective. It would take some new technology, but that seems to be on the way for the US Marine Corps RQ-7B Shadow UAV fleet.

Pieces of the Puzzle RQ-7 launch, Mosul
(click to view full)

SecDef Robert Gates’ has consistently offered strong support for more attention to the needs of the counterinsurgency fight. Surveillance is part of that, but it needs to be backed by action. Pending and emerging approaches tie UAVs, manned propeller planes, artillery, and helicopters into a cohesive, fast, and flexible solution for finding, identifying, and capturing or killing opponents.

Larger RQ-5 Hunters have been tested with Viper Strike mini-bombs, and MQ-1C Sky Warriors can carry up to 4 Hellfires – but both UAV types are far outnumbered by the Army’s smaller RQ-7 Shadows. Precision weapons can also be dropped by fighters or bombers, but the planes’ $10,000 – $25,000 cost per flight hour is prohibitive, they require extensive planning processes to use, and declining aircraft numbers affect their potential coverage and response times.

M270 firing M30 GMLRS
(click to view full)

Small UAVs can still pack a punch without weapons by providing GPS targeting data to M30 GPS-guided MLRS rockets, long-range ATACMS MLRS missiles, or 155mm Excalibur artillery shells – as long as those weapons are (a) appropriate and (b) within range.

Using an ATACMS missile to take out an enemy machine gun position seems a bit silly, but that’s exactly the sort of help that could really make a difference to troops on the ground – and has been used in urban fights, against building strongholds. With that said, maximum effectiveness comes when battalion-level “Tactical UAVs” like the RQ-7B Shadow can perform the full spectrum of missions: surveillance, laser or GPS target designation, or close support for infantry fights.

The U.S. Army’s Armament Research Development and Engineering Center (ARDEC) at Picatinny Arsenal, NJ has funded some R&D in order to provide “Tactical Class Unmanned Aircraft Systems (TCUAS)” with a low-cost weapon, US NAVAIR is busy developing a 5-pound missile called Spike, and global trends are pushing companies like Raytheon and Thales to invent designs of their own. The US Army ended up dragging its feet on arming its small tactical UAVs, but they are fielding GBU-44 Viper Strike weapons on MQ-5B Hunter UAVs, and have a small but growing fleet of Hellfire-armed, Cessna-sized MQ-1C Gray Eagle UAVs. The US Marines have no such option, and decided that arming their own growing fleet of RQ-7Bs was the way forward.

Step 1 requires a lightweight laser designator that would add the ability to actively mark targets for common helicopter and UAV weapons like Hellfire missiles, laser-guided 70mm rockets, or Paveway bombs. That way, the small and relatively cheap RQ-7s could mark targets for any component of Task Force ODIN, or its equivalent. That effort is already underway, across the board.

Step 2 involves arming even RQ-7 size UAVs, but their payload weight limits make that a very challenging task. Small missiles like the US Navy’s Spike are in development, in cooperation with Finmeccanica’s DRS, but parallel private developments

ATK: Hatchet. This 7-pound weapon is extremely small, and half its weight is warhead. GPS and GPS/laser guidance variants are both said to be possible.

GD: RCFC. General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems makes the US Army’s mortar rounds, and had an interesting idea. What if their 81mm mortars could receive a small add-on GPS guidance kit, similar to the JDAM kits used on larger air force bombs? The Army’s 81mm mortars weigh just 9-10 pounds each, and GD-OTS’ clip-on Roll Controlled Fixed Canard (RCFC) is an integrated fuze and guidance-and-flight control kit that uses GPS/INS navigation, replacing current fuze hardware in existing mortars. A standard M821 81mm Mortar with fuze weighs 9.1 pounds, and the same mortar with an RCFC Guidance system and fuze weighs just 10.8 pounds. US Army ARDEC funded their development testing.

The nose-mounted RCFC guidance has now been successfully demonstrated on multiple mortar calibers, in both air-drop and tube-launch applications. The tube-launched application has been successfully demonstrated at Yuma Proving Grounds, AZ in a tactical 120mm guided mortar configuration known as the Roll Controlled Guided Mortar (RCGM), which uses the existing 120mm warhead and the M934A1 fuze.

Lockheed Martin: Shadow Hawk. In 2012, Lockheed began discussing its “11 pound class”, semi-active laser-guided Shadow Hawk bomb.

Raytheon: Pyros. STM. Raytheon has a privately-developed effort called Pyros, a 22-inch, 13.5-pound bomb that uses dual GPS/INS and semi-active laser guidance. It also has also 3 warhead options: height-of-burst, point-of-impact or fuze-delay detonation.

Thales/ Textron: FF-LMM/Fury. Thales’ beam-riding Lightweight Modular Missile with its tri-mode (burst height, impact, delayed) warhead will equip Britain’s AW159 Wildcat helicopters, and single launchers are small enough to fit on tactical UAVs like Schiebel’s S1000 Camcopter. Removing the propulsion system lightens the missile even further as the Free-Fall LMM, which adds a dual-mode GPS-laser guidance system up front. A partnership with Textron is aimed at the US market, where the weapon is known as the Fury. It was tested from an RQ-7B in 2014.

These and other systems will offer the US Marines the options they need. In the end, however, they key change isn’t the individual weapons – it’s the concept. That concept’s influence will extend past small UAVs, in 2 ways.

MC-130W: next
(click to view full)

One is the growing trend away from sole USAF control of air support, and toward a much more responsive era of “federated airpower” that includes high-end aircraft and UAVs operated by the US Air Force, and lower-tier propeller planes and small UAVs operated by the US Army and Marines. Those lower-tier options use lower-cost platforms that are far more affordable to operate, which means they can be bought and operated in numbers that provide far wider battlefield coverage for small-unit engagements.

The USAF’s long-running and pervasive deprecation of relevant counter-insurgency capabilities, and strong institutional preference for high-end, expensive platforms, has left them vulnerable to lower-cost disruptive technologies that meet current battlefield needs. While the service still has a key role in maintaining American power, strategic control of the air, and high-end capabilities, the new reality involves a mix of high and low-end aerial capabilities, with a lot more aerial control nested closer to battlefield decision-making.

The other change is reaching beyond UAVs, and into USAF and USMC aircraft, which can carry larger weapons. Related tube-launched small precision weapons, which already include Raytheon’s Griffin missile, are finding their way to USMC KC-130J and Special Operations MC-130W Hercules, which are receiving roll-on/ roll-off weapon kits that can turn them into multi-role gunship support/ aerial tanker aircraft. Similar weapons, like Textron’s G-CLAW and many of the weapons discussed here for UAVs, will make it easier to equip more planes with more on-board weapons. As Airbus and Alenia both begin fielding smaller gunship aircraft of their own, and more countries begin arming other kinds of counterinsurgency aircraft, the market is expected to grow.

Contracts and Key Events Pyros strike
click for video

May 2/16: Textron is currently testing their upgraded RQ-7 Shadow M2 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), which they believe will allow the system to undertake increased mission capabilities currently reserved for larger UAVs such as the MQ-1 Predator. At present, Shadow V2s are used by the US Army in conjunction with AH-64 Apaches to fill the armed reconnaissance mission, following the retirement of the OH-58 Kiowa Warrior helicopter. The Shadow M2 will add longer endurance, more capable payloads, and more power than the M2 version, and also gain a satellite uplink that allows it to communicate beyond-line-of-sight.

Sept 23/14: FF-LMM. Textron Systems touts a pair of successful live-fire demonstrations from an RQ-7 Shadow 200 UAV at Yuma Proving Ground, AZ, using its new GPS/laser guided Fury (FF-LMM) collaboration with Thales. Textron’s AAI subsidiary makes the Shadow, and the demonstration to TRL 7 levels (prototype tested in representative environment) took 15 months of planning and work with Thales.

As noted above, Fury is derived from Thales’ beam-riding Lightweight Modular Missile, but it uses a different guidance system and removes the rocket motor. It’s properly a glide bomb, which is true for the vast majority of entrants in this market niche. Sources: Textron Systems, “Textron Systems Fury™ Lightweight Precision Weapon Engages Target During Live-Fire Demonstrations”

July 13/14: FF-LMM. Thales unveils an unpowered version of LMM at Farnborough 2014, as a smaller and lighter option for use on tactical UAVs, as well as larger platforms. It’s 70cm / 2’4? long and 6 kg / 13 pounds in weight, with a combined GPS and laser guidance system. The initial model won’t have an airburst fuze, though. Sources: IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, “Farnborough 2014: Thales unveils new LMM variant” | Aviation Week, “Thales Reveals 6-Kg Glide Bomb For UAVs”.

Aug 7/12: STM-II Pyros. Raytheon announces a successful test for their 13.5 pound “Small Tactical Munition,” now redesigned and named “Pyros.” The end-to-end test from a Shadow-sized Cobra UAV validated the weapon’s dual laser/GPS guidance, its height-of-burst sensor, electronic safe and arm device, and multi-effects warhead.

May 2/12: Shadow Hawk test. Lockheed Martin announces successful tests of its privately-developed Shadow Hawk bomb from an RQ-7B. The “11 pound class,” 2.5 inch diameter weapon is laser-guided, and hit within 8 inches of the target at at Dugway Proving Grounds in Utah after being dropped from 5,100 feet.

April 4/12: Army update. The US Army discusses its plans for the RQ-7 Shadow. The army’s product manager, ground maneuver, UAS is Lt. Col. Scott Anderson. He says the Army is observing USMC efforts to add weapons to the Shadow, but is more interested in giving the UAV a new engine to improve reliability. That multi-phase competition got 14 responses, and could indirectly help weaponization efforts, especially if the new engine also provides more power.

Jan 12/12: Armed to Afghanistan? Flight International reports that the USMC plans to send 8 armed RQ-7Bs to Afghanistan as a combat demonstration program, after 94 “high-value targets” escaped during a recent Marine unit’s deployment, even though they were spotted by RQ-7s circling overhead. There isn’t always someone else on hand to fire.

The goal is to arm the Shadows with guided bombs weighing under 25 pounds, which was cleared for treaty compliance (?!?) by the US State Department in July 2011, and reportedly followed by a $10 million December 2011 contract. Installation and certification is expected to take a year, followed by a $7 million follow-on contract for deployment. The magazine reports that the weapon isn’t Raytheon’s STM, MBDA’s SABER, or ATK’s Hatchet, but is “another guided weapon that already has been developed and fielded in secrecy.”

Dec 30/11: Laser designators. Textron subsidiary AAI Corp. in Hunt Valley, MD receives a $54.8 million firm-fixed-price contract modification to supply RQ-7B laser designator retrofit kits.

Work will be performed in Hunt Valley, MD, with an estimated completion date of March 31/14. One bid was solicited, with one bid received by US Army Contracting Command in Redstone Arsenal, AL (W58RGZ-08-C-0023).

FY 2011

STM-P2 on Cobra UAV
(click to view full)

Sept 16/11: STM-II test. Over at Yuma Proving Ground, AZ, Raytheon’s 12-pound, 22″/ 56cm Small Tactical Munition Phase II finishes captive carry tests on the company’s smaller Cobra test UAV, paving the way for full weapon tests.

STM Phase II is more than 2 inches shorter than the Phase I design, and has foldable fins and wings that allow it to be used from the U.S. military’s common launch tube. It uses both GPS and semi-active laser guidance. Raytheon is taking the production-ready mandate seriously, as well; STM Phase II is also easier to assemble than the Phase I design. Raytheon Nov 30/11 release.

Aug 17/11: Cleared to arm. Flight International, quotes US NAVAIR’s Small Tactical UAS program manager, Col. Jim Rector, who says that the Marines have received clearance from policymakers to arm the RQ-7 Shadow. The USMC made its intent to do so clear late last year (vid. Jan 18/11 entry). Field trials are to be performed on with unnamed munition selected by AAI, within the Marines’ request that it be a production-ready item. This evaluation process is scheduled to last 18 – 24 months.

Aug 15/11: Collision. When an RQ-7 flies into a C-130 Hercules, at least the latter gets to land in one piece. This time.

The incident underscores the role that “deconfliction” needs to play, when armed UAVs are used over the battlefield without “sense and avoid” technologies on board. Experiments are underway to give Shadow-sized UAVs those capabilities, but without that, expect sharp flight restrictions that emphasize long advance notice of flight plans, and narrow altitude bands. Those restrictions will reduce an armed “MQ-7C” Shadow’s potential value, which means the full impact of small tactical armed UAVs won’t be felt until that technical hurdle is cleared.

June 21/11: First test flight at Webster Field, MD of a RQ-7B Shadow UAS under the direction of NAWC Aircraft Division’s UAS Test Directorate. Col. Jim Rector, program manager for Navy and Marine Corps Small Tactical UAS program office (PMA-263), said:

“Having a RQ-7B at the UAS Test Directorate allows for the test and evaluation of system enhancements and ultimately provides the ability to quickly get new technologies into the hands of Marines”.

Rector was appointed in April after last serving in the V-22 program office (PMA-274).

May /11: Competition: T-20. Arcturus in Rohnert Park, CA has built the T-20 tactical UAV drone, whose wings can carry MBDA’s 10-pound Saber mini-missile.

The USMC has a few in testing now, and this wing-mounting capability may give Arcturus an opening to supplement, or even replace, AAI’s RQ-7 Shadow as the USMC’s armed tactical UAV.

Jan 18/11: USMC in. Flight Global reports that the US Marines have decided to arm Shadow UAVs as their own initiative, since the Army is dragging its feet, and the Marines don’t have a larger armed UAV like the Army’s MQ-1C Gray Eagle:

“Although the Army Aviaton [sic] and Missile Command issued a request for information in April seeking data on precision-guided weapons weighing 11.3kg (25lb) or less… and said as recently as October that it would take the lead on development of Shadow weaponisation with the USMC, the programme is no longer on the table for the army… says Col Robert Sova, capability manager for UAVs at the Army Training and Doctrine Command.”

The Marines reportedly want a solution fielded within 12-18 months. Beyond options like RCFC, NAVAIR’s Spike, etc., Raytheon has been pressing ahead with its 13 pound Small Tactical Munition (STM), with its dual-mode, laser/GPS guidance system.

Dec 3/10: R&D projects. Aviation Week reports that the US Navy is working on weapons that could give even the ScanEagle UAV hunter-killer capability – and implicitly, the Marines’ Shadow 200s as well.

The 2 pound next-generation weapon management system (WMS GEN2) is designed for use on small UAVs like the Shadow. It has been tested in the lab, and the development team is now looking at using the WMS GEN2 with the 5 pound NAWCAD Spike mini-missile, the Scan Eagle Guided Munition (SEGM), and a GPS-Guided Munition (G2M).

Oct 26/10: STM tests. Flight International reports that Raytheon has conducted tests of its 13 pound, unpowered Small Tactical Munition (STM) at the Yuma Proving Ground, AZ. The 2 successful tests used Raytheon’s Cobra UAV, which was picked because it’s close to the RQ-7 Shadow’s size. Raytheon estimates needing 12 to 18 months to get STM production lines running at quantity, and is readying the project in response to interest from the USMC and, they expect, from Special Forces.

FY 2008 – 2010

81mm RCFC test
(click to view full)

April 19/10: Army RFI. Looks like the US Army is getting more serious about fielding armed Shadow UAVs. US FedBizOpps solicitation #W31P4Q-10-R-0142 says that “Responses to this RFI will be used for information and planning purposes only and do not constitute a solicitation…,” but its issue does show a higher level of seriousness, and could well be a prelude to a real solicitation if an acceptable candidate emerges:

“The US Army Aviation and Missile Command (AMCOM) Program Executive Office (PEO) Missiles and Space (M&S), Program Management (PM) Joint Attack Munition Systems (JAMS), on behalf of the war fighter, seeks information from industry on weapons systems ready for production and suitable for integration on the RQ-7B with POP 300D laser designator payload Shadow Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UASs). Potential weapons systems must be ready to field within 12 months from the date of a potential contract award. The primary interest is in weapon systems approximately 25 lbs or less total system weight (to include munition, launcher, wiring, fire control interface, etc). The weapons system should be able to engage stationary and moving targets such as light vehicles and dismounted combatants in day and night conditions with low collateral damage when launched from a Shadow UAS flying at speeds of 60-70 knots and between 5,000 and 12,000 feet Above Ground Level (AGL). Terminal accuracy must be on the order of that demonstrated by currently fielded Semi Active Laser / Imaging Infrared / Millimeter Wave (SAL/IIR/MMW) weapons…”

That level of terminal accuracy may be an issue for RCFC mortars, depending on how the Army interprets it. SAL/IIR/MMW weapons are generally considered to be more accurate that GPS guidance, but if “on the order” means “approximately,” then a GPS guidance kit would qualify. It is intended that this RFI will be open for 21 calendar days from date of publication (to May 10/10).

April 1/10: RCFC test. General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems announces successful 81mm Air-Dropped Mortar guide-to-target flight demonstrations at Ft. Sill, OK. The RCFC weapon was released from a TUAV (Shadow) using the GD-OTS’ newly developed “Smart Rack” carriage and release system.

Feb 12/09: Laser designators. Textron subsidiary Army Armaments Incorporated (AAI) in Hunt Valley, MD receives a $9.3 million cost plus fixed fee contract modification, exercising options for additional engineering hours related to these Shadow UAV modifications. These services are related to low-rate initial production of Laser Designators, Tactical Common Data Link (TCDL) interoperability, and integration with the Army’s Universal Ground Control Station and Universal Ground Data Terminal.

Work will be performed in Hunt Valley, MD, with an estimated completion date of April 30/09. One bid was solicited and one bid received by the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command in Redstone Arsenal, AL (W58RGZ-08-C-0033).

Jan 21/09: Laser designators. Textron subsidiary AAI Corp. in Hunt Valley, MD receives a $12.2 million firm-fixed-price finalization of Letter Contract Modification P00012. It will purchase 25 Laser Designator Retrofit Kits for its RQ-7 Shadow Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS).

Work will be performed at Hunt Valley, MD, with an estimated completion date of Aug 31/09. One bid was solicited and one bid received by the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command in Redstone Arsenal, AL (W58RGZ-08-C-0023).

Dec 16/08: RCFC test. General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems announces that it has successfully demonstrated the ability to maneuver and guide 81mm air-dropped mortars to a stationary ground target after release from an aircraft. These test results in Kingman, AZ build on previous pre-programmed maneuver flight tests successfully conducted by General Dynamics in 2007, and use the company’s patented Roll Controlled Fixed Canard (RCFC) flight control and guidance system.

Additional Readings

• DID thanks subscriber Trent Telenko for his research assistance with this article.

The Trends

• P.W. Singer – Wired for War. Singer works at the Brookings Institution, one of Washington’s principal think-tanks. See also his DID article, “In the Loop? Armed Robots and the Future of War.”

• US Army (March 4/11) – Shadow defies gravity with success. Looks behind the scenes at how the RQ-7 became the Army’s workhorse UAV, and some of the mechanical and procedural changes used to give it a wider temperature range and lower the accident rate.

• Aviation Week (Feb 4/11) – Shadow Punches Above its Weight

• National Defense Magazine (April 2010) – Army on a Fast Track to Build its Own High-Tech Air Force

• National Defense Magazine (February 2010) – Army’s Shadow Unmanned Aircraft Receiving Upgrades For Longer Missions. The extended wings will also improve carrying capacity.

• DID (Jan 21/09) – Laser Designators for RQ-7 Shadow UAVs. That didn’t take long.

• StrategyPage (Jan 8/09) – Laser Precision In All Its Forms. The US military is also testing a laser designator that’s small enough for its RQ-7s. The UAVs can already use a laser rangefinder to geo-locate targets for GPS systems like Excalibur shells, GMLRS rockets, and JDAM/WCMD bombs. A lightweight laser designator would add the ability to actively mark targets for laser-guided weapons like Hellfire missiles, or Paveway bombs. As geolocation and laser designation continue to shrink and devolve to even smaller UAVs than the Shadow, it will change the way units can fight.

• WIRED Danger Zone (Oct 10/08) – New Killer Drones Could be Piloted by Teenagers. Includes trends re: adding weapons to Shadows.

• US Army Fires Bulletin (May-June 2008) – Fires for the 2007 Surge in Iraq: Lethal and Nonlethal [PDF]. See esp. the points re: the changing targeting chain.

• US Army Fires Bulletin (March-April 2008) – Revolutionary to Conventional – Evolution of GMLRS. Shadow drones can currently supply GMLRS GPS targeting via their laser rangefinders. Note, again, the changes in the Army kill-chain, and flattening of the surveillance – fire – approval structure using Army-owned air assets plus artillery. Arming those assets themselves is simply the next logical step.

The Weapons

Listed in alphabetical order of manufacturer.

• Flight International (April 20/11) – PHOTOS: Bits and bobs around Quad-A. Covers ATK’s Hatchet, reportedly funded by the US Air Force Research Laboratory.

• DID (Nov 16/09) – Boeing Team Gets USAF Contract for UAV Miniature Weapon Development.

• Designation Systems – NAWC/DRS Spike. Very short range (around 2 miles) powered missile with a 1 kg warhead, weighs only 5 pounds.

• Lockheed Martin (May 1/12) – Lockheed Martin’s Shadow Hawk Munition Launched from Shadow UAS for the First Time.

• DID – GBU-44 Viper Strike: Death From Above. Now owned by MBDA, and called Viper-E. GPS or dual GPS-laser guidance options, used from MQ-5B Hunter UAVs and slated for integration into the MC-27J Praetorian gunship. At 42 pounds, however, it’s a bit outside the Shadow’s class.

MBDA – SABER. Their Small Air Bomb Extended Range (SABER), whose unpowered version is about 10 pounds. The powered version of this GPS/laser guided weapon is 30 pounds.

• Defense Update (July 21/10) – MBDA Unveils Small Guided Bomb at Farnborough. SABER.

• Raytheon – Pyros: Small Tactical Munition.

• DID – Raytheon’s AGM-176 Griffin Mini-Missiles.

• Textron – Fury. A much smaller weapon that their 50-70 pound G-CLAW, which is dropped by aircraft. Collaboration with Thales (FF-LMM).

• DID – Direct Sting: Thales’ Small LMM / FASGW-L Missiles. FF-LMM/Fury is derived from it.

F-15C over DC
(click to view full)

“Array of Aging American Aircraft Attracting Attention” discusses the issues that accompany an air force whose fighters have an average age of over 23.5 years – vs. an average of 8.5 years in 1967. One of the most obvious consequences is the potential for fleet groundings due to unforseen structural issues caused by time and fatigue. That very fear is responsible for the #1 priority placed on bringing new KC-X aerial tankers into the fleet to complement the USA’s 1960s-era KC-135 Stratotankers.

It can also affect the fighter fleet more directly.

Following the crash of a Missouri Air National Guard F-15C aircraft Nov 2/07 (see crash simulation), the US Air Force suspended non-mission critical F-15 flight operations on Nov 3/07. While the cause of that accident is still under investigation, preliminary findings indicate that a structural failure during flight may have been responsible. In response, Japan suspended its own F-15 flights, which left them in a bit of a bind – even as Israel’s F-15s joined them on the tarmac. As the effects continue to spread and the USAF and others continue to comment on this situation, DID continues to expand its coverage of this bellwether event. A conditional restoration of the American F-15A-D fleet to flight status was soon overturned by the re-grounding of that fleet as a result of the report’s conclusions – a status that remains only been partially lifted. Meanwhile, the accident report has been released (compete with video dramatization) and the status of the remaining aircraft will have significant implications for the USAF’s future F-15 fleet size. Not to mention its other procurement programs.

Then, too, this is America. Now there’s a lawsuit.

F-15E, Afghanistan
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The F-15A reached initial operational capability for the US Air Force in September 1975, and approximately 670 F-15s remain in the USAF’s inventory. Current F-15 flying locations include bases in the continental United States, Alaska, England, Hawaii, Japan and the Middle East, and the aircraft are active on the Iraqi and Afghan fronts. The Missouri Air National Guard F-15C that crashed was built in 1980.

Lt. Gen. Gary L. North, US CENTCOM Combined Forces Air Component commander, is maintaining the newer F-15E Strike Eagles on ground alert, to be used if required. Otherwise, he says he will accomplish all assigned missions using a variety of fighter, attack and bomber aircraft, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Lt. Gen. North added that:

“I worry about the health of our aging fleet and how sometimes it is not well understood by those our Airmen protect… The investigation will get to the cause of the accident.”

USAF Chief of Staff Michael Moseley was even more specific in an Oct 30/07 interview with GovExec.com:

“The F-15s and F-16s were designed and built in the late ’60s and ’70s. Some of them were produced up until the early ’80s. But they’ve led a pretty hard life of 17 years of combat. So you have to replace them with something, because we were continuing to restrict the airplanes. In the F-15 case, we’ve got the airplane restricted to 1.5 Mach. It was designed to be a 2.5 Mach airplane. We’ve got it limited on maneuvering restrictions because we’ve had tail cracks, fuselage cracks, cracks in the wings. The problem with that is – and Mike Wynne uses this analogy – it’s almost like going to the Indy 500 race practicing all the way up until Memorial Day at 60 miles an hour, and then on game day, accelerating the car out to 200 miles an hour. It’s not the time to be doing that on game day.

So in our training models and in our scenarios, we’re limiting these airplanes because they’re restricted and getting old. So there’s two parts to the recapitalization of the fighter inventory. The first part is the existing stuff is old and it’s getting broke, and it’s getting harder to get it out of depot on time. And our availability rates and our in-commission rates are going down. The ability to generate the sorties on those old airplanes is in the wrong direction.”

And Flight International:

“A USAF F-15 crashed in the Gulf of Mexico in 2002 when it broke up after the leading edge of its left vertical stabiliser detached in a high-speed dive to Mach 1.97. The pilot was killed.

The USAF says it began replacing the leading edge and upper aft portion of the vertical stabilisers during depot overhaul and has so far completed 463 of its 664 aircraft. The F-15 involved in the Missouri accident had its vertical stabilisers repaired in August 2003, the service says.”

Further investigation focused on the plane’s longerons, which connect the aircraft’s metal ‘skin’ to the frame, and run along the length and side of the aircraft. Both the Accident Investigation Board and Boeing simulations have indicated them as a possible source of catastrophic failure; indeed, DID had wondered why structural failure was suspected immediately, and it with that revelation it began to make sense. As DID explained at the time, if one or more of those longerons had failed, the stresses on the airframe could have folded or broken the plane in half – a very unusual form of accident. Eventually, the publication of the formal report confirmed that hypothesis:

“The one longeron, already not up to design specifications, cracked apart under the stress of a 7G turn, the colonel said. This led to the other longerons failing as well, which then caused the cockpit to separate from the rest of the fuselage. The pilot was able to eject, but suffered a broken arm when the canopy snapped off.”

F-4EJ “Kai(zen)”
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Nor is this problem confined to the USA – or even to the here and now.

The Chinese government’s Xinhua agency reports that Japan has also grounded its F-15 fleet. Japan’s F-15Js were built locally under license, on a more recent production schedule, but their oldest planes do date back to 1980. This is a precautionary measure until more is known.

Since Japan’s F-16-derived F-2 fighters are also grounded in the wake of a recent crash at Nagoya, this leaves 1960s era F-4EJ ‘Kai’ Phantom IIs as Japan’s interceptor and fighter patrol fleet for the time being.

Israel confirmed to Flight International that it had also grounded its 70 F-15A-D air superiority aircraft, which are undergoing multi-role conversions, and its F-15I Strike Eagles. The Strike Eagles were later removed from the USA’s concern list, but its F-15 A-D fleet is an important component of Israeli air defenses alongside its larger F-16 fleet.

Gen. John D.W. Corley, the commander of US Air Combat Command, was not encouraged by the results of the report, and of the in-depth fleet inspections that led to 40% of the Eagle fleet remaining on the ground over 3 months after the investigation:

“The difficulty is that issues have been found with F-15s built between 1978 and 1985, across A through D models at several bases, so no one source of the problem can be isolated… This isn’t just about one pilot in one aircraft with one bad part… I have a fleet that is 100 percent fatigued, and 40 percent of that has bad parts. The long-term future of the F-15 is in question… We don’t have a full and healthy fleet, so we’ve gotten behind on training missions, instructor certifications, classes and exercises…

We’re going over each and every aircraft to make a determination. We will take some F-15s out of the inventory. It just doesn’t make sense to spend the time and money if it won’t be worth it for some aircraft.”

Updates F-15E, P-51, F-22A
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May 2/16: USAF’s fleet of more than 500 F-15s are to get a wheel and brake upgrade after successful flight testing. Once completed, F-15C/D/E fighters will be capable of undertaking 1,400 landings before having to swap out their brakes. The USAF stands to save over $194 million in F-15 maintenance costs once all of the aircraft are fitted with the upgrade, and this will be the first brake testing to be carried out on the jet since the 1980s.

May 26/09: Aviation Week reports that the USAF is looking into the possibility of a Service Life Extension Program for its F-15A-D fleet, designed to increase their service lives from 8,000 flight hours to 12,000.

The move is driven, in part, by the impending collapse of Air National Guard wings that can be used in domestic air sovereignty patrols, as older fighters retire and are not replaced. The USAF is accelerating the retirement of 250 F-16 and F-15 fighters in FY 2010, and current plans calls for 2 ANG air sovereignty mission units to get F-22s, 4 to get receive upgraded F-15A-Ds, and the remaining 12 are yet to be determined.

March 22/08: Maj. Stephen Stilwell, a pilot for Southwest Airlines whose Missouri Air National Guard F-15C’s mid-air crackup began the fleet groundings, has filed suit in U.S. District Court against claiming Boeing Corp. His injuries left him with a 10-inch metal plate in the injured arm and shoulder, and he reports that he has suffered from chronic pain since the accident.

Stilwell’s suit, filed by attorney Morry S. Cole, says that Boeing knew or should have know that the F-15 as manufactured allowed and permitted for catastrophic flight break-up, and adds that Boeing failed to notify the Air Force and Missouri Air National Guard of “the likelihood of excess stress concentrations, fatigue cracking, structural failure and in-flight aircraft break up as a result of the structural deficiencies.” St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

February 2008: The largest effects of the F-15 fleet’s grounding may yet play out on the procurement front. If many of the USAF’s F-15s, which were supposed to serve until 2025 or so, must be retired, how should they be replaced? Read “Aging F-15s: Ripples Hitting the F-22, F-35 Programs.”

Jan 21/08: This week’s edition of the “Today’s Air Force” show highlights how the Air Force carried on its mission while more than 700 of its F-15 Eagles were grounded. See “The Eagle flies once again!” on the Pentagon Channel, American Forces Radio and Television Service stations around the world, and video podcast [30 minutes].

Jan 14/08: Officials begin flight operations again as 39 of the 18th Wing F-15C/Ds at Kadena Air Base, Japan are cleared to fly again after remaining on the ground for more than 2 months as a result of a fleet-wide stand-down. See USAF story.

Jan 10/08: According to the Air Combat Command Accident Investigation Board report released on this day. Their conclusion? The plane was simply too old:

“…a technical analysis of the recovered F-15C wreckage determined that the longeron didn’t meet blueprint specifications. This defect led to a series of fatigue cracks in the right upper longeron. These cracks expanded under life cycle stress, causing the longeron to fail, which initiated a catastrophic failure of the remaining support structures and led to the aircraft breaking apart in flight… the pilot’s actions during the mishap sequence were focused, precise and appropriate. The pilot’s actions did not contribute to the mishap, said Colonel Wignall. In addition, a thorough review of local maintenance procedures revealed no problems or adverse trends which could have contributed to the accident.”

Col. William Wignall, the head of the accident investigation added that:

“We’ve had great involvement from Boeing during the investigation. In fact, they’re the ones who determined the longeron was the problem. This was then confirmed by the Air Force Research Laboratory.”

See the USAF’s “F-15 Eagle accident report released,” and the accompanying video dramatization, as well as “Air Force leaders discuss F-15 accident, future.”

Jan 9/08: Air Combat Command officials clear 60% of the F-15A-D fleet for flying status, and recommends a limited return to flight for those planes that have cleared all inspections. The decision follows detailed information briefed on Jan 4/08 to Air Combat Command from the Air Force’s F-15 systems program manager, senior engineers from Boeing and the Warner Robins Air Logistics Center; as well as a briefing received on Jan 9/08 from the Accident Investigation Board president.

The USAF report describes inspections as “more than 90% complete,” with remaining inspections focusing primarily on the forward longerons. Thus far, 9 other F-15s have been found with longeron fatigue-cracks, and almost 40% of inspected aircraft have at least 1 longeron that is thinner than blueprint specifications. ACC believes each affected F-15 will have to be analyzed to determine if there is sufficient strength in the non-specification longeron, and this analysis will take place at the Warner-Robbins Air Logistics Center over the next 4 weeks. A number of F-15s are scheduled to be retired in 2009, and calculating the cost of fixes and airframe life of fixed aircraft could have a substantial bearing on the size of the USAF’s future F-15 fleet.

Meanwhile, the 2-month grounding, which has been the longest of any USAF jet fighter, is a gift that keeps on giving. Fully 75% of US Air Force and Air National Guard F-15A-D pilots have lost their currency status for solo flight, and another week would have made it 100%. Instructor pilots have retained their currency and will begin flying F-15B/Ds with the other pilots, so the pilots can land the plane and regain their status. This will be followed by further pilot training, which is required to regain operational proficiency status. USAF report | Flight International.

F-15C CAP(Combat Air Patrol)
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Dec 27/07: The Associated Press details some of the ripple effects created by the F-15 A-D grounding. With the F-15s in Massachusetts out of commission, the Vermont Air National Guard (ANG) is covering the whole Northeast. The Oregon ANG’s fighters are grounded, so the California Air National Guard is standing watch for the entire West Coast plus slices of Arizona and Nevada. To meet that need, the Fresno, CA based 144th Fighter Wing has had to borrow F-16s from bases in Indiana and Arizona and trim back training.

The Minnesota ANG is manning sites in Hawaii, while the Illinois ANG covers Louisiana. In Alaska, the new F-22 Raptors are stepping in – and so are Canadian CF-18s, which have intercepted several Russian bombers near Alaska in recent weeks.

Dec 10/07: The F-15 A-Ds remain grounded. A USAF update informs us that throughout the Air Force, maintainers have found cracks in the upper longerons of 8 F-15s so far: 4 from Air National Guard 173rd Fighter Wing, Kingsley Field, OR; 2 from USAF 18th Wing, Kadena Air Base, Japan; 1 from 325th Fighter Wing, Tyndall AFB, FL; and 1 from ANG 131st Fighter Wing, St. Louis, MO.

Inspections are underway using previous methods, until the Warner Robins ALC develops new ones for the fleet. After the area’s paint is stripped and bare metal is exposed, Airmen apply chemicals that reveal cracks under a black light. “Other inspections in hard-to-see areas are done with a boar scope [sic… maybe they mean “borescope”?] – a tool that uses a tiny camera and fits in tight areas.” Inspection time per aircraft is 12.5 to over 20 hours, and the 2-seat B and D models are more time consuming because the rear seat must be removed to access the upper longerons. USAF story.

UPDATE from USAF: “Yes, other readers pointed that out as well (although yours was the funniest). The story was corrected…”

Dec 3/07: It’s now official. Gen. John D.W. Corley, the commander of Air Combat Command orders the stand-down of all ACC F-15 A-Ds until further notice, and recommends the same for all other branches of the USAF. The stand-down does not affect the F-15E Strike Eagle and its variants abroad.

Technical experts with the Warner Robins Air Logistics Center at Robins Air Force Base, GA are developing a specific inspection technique for the suspect area, based on the recent findings. However, unlike previous inspections, the inspected aircraft will not be returned to flight until the F-15 A-D model findings and data have been analyzed, required inspections have been accomplished, and the necessary repair or mitigation actions have been completed. To date, longeron cracks have been discovered in an additional 4 aircraft. USAF release.

F-15E: Mission executed.
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Nov 28/07: The accident investigation board (AIB) report leads to the recommended re-grounding of the USAF F-15 A-D fleet, and almost certainly those of other countries as well. The new AIB findings have drawn attention to the F-15’s upper longerons near the canopy of the aircraft, which appear to have cracked and failed. Longerons connect the aircraft’s metal ‘skin’ to the frame, and run along the length and side of the aircraft. In addition to the AIB’s conclusions, manufacturer simulations have indicated that a catastrophic failure could result from such cracks, which were also discovered along the same longeron area during 2 recent inspections of F-15C aircraft.

The commander of Air Combat Command has recommended the stand-down of all F-15 A-D model aircraft across the US military, and ordered a renewed fleet-wide inspection of all ACC F-15 A-D model aircraft using a very specific inspection technique for the suspect area. The multi-role 2-seat F-15E Strike Eagles, which were manufactured later and had several design changes made, remain exempt from these cautions and exceptions. USAF article.

Nov 21/07: All USAF’s F-15s are being returned to flight status, despite acknowledgment that the service is accepting a degree of risk in doing so. Gen. John D.W. Corley, commander, Air Combat Command:

“The cause of the mishap remains under investigation… At the same time, structural engineers have conducted in-depth technical reviews of data from multiple sources… First, we focused on the F-15Es. They are… structurally different than the A-D models. Problems identified during years of A-D model usage were designed “out” of the E-model… Next, we concentrated on the remainder of the grounded fleet. The AIB(Accident Investigation Board) is now focused on the area just aft of the cockpit and slightly forward of the inlets. Warner Robins ALC mandated a thorough inspection and repair of all structural components in this area. I have directed each F-15 aircraft be inspected and cleared before returning to operational status. Today, ACC issued (a flight crew information file) and Warner Robins ALC issued an Operational Supplemental Tech Order to further direct and guide your pre-flight and post-flight actions.”

There are 666 F-15s in the Air Force inventory. As of this day, 219 of the 224 E-models and 294 of the 442 A-D models in the USAF’s inventory have been inspected and re-cleared for flight.

Nov 19/07: Shortly after becoming the first deployed F-15E unit in the Air Force to return to full operational capability following the Air Force’s fleet-wide grounding of the aircraft, the 455th Expeditionary Maintenance Squadron at Bagram AFB, Afghanistan, began the move from 5-7 day phase inspections every 200 flight hours, to a phase inspection every 400 flight hours. This change isn’t slated for implementation until 2008, but it’s being implemented early at Bagram AFB to keep more F-15Es in the air and meet mission demands.

The USAF says that its engineers at the Warner-Robins Air Force Base Air Logistics Center, GA looked carefully at all the data after years of F-15E analysis and testing, before approving the change. USAF release.

Nov 15/07: A USAF release says that an order issued by Air Combat Command’s Commander Gen. John Corley on Nov 11/07 mandates a 13-hour Time-Compliance Technical Order (TCTO) on location for each of the USAF’s F-15E Strike Eagles, to inspect hydraulic system lines, the fuselage structure, and structure-related panels. Aircraft that pass this inspection may return to flight status, and similar procedures are likely to be underway for Israel’s F-15Is. ACC Combat Aircraft Division chief Col. Frederick Jones said that this was possible because:

“We were able to determine, based on initial reports from an engineering analysis, that the F-15E is not susceptible to the same potential cause of the Missouri mishap.”

The TCTO inspection is designed to confirm the engineering analysis, and aircraft deployed the CENTCOM has apparently completed inspections and returned to flying status. This still leaves 2/3 of the USAF’s F-15 fleet grounded, however, as the F-15A-D models remain under suspicion. The F-15Es are about 15 years old on average, but the F-15A-D models were introduced earlier. Maj. Gen. David Gillett, ACC director of Logistics said that:

“What we’ve got here is an example in the C model of what happens when you have an airplane that’s about 25 years old… What you find is that it becomes more and more expensive to modify [the F-15 airframe] over time… Our costs have gone up 87 percent in the last five years and continue to rise rapidly. Even when you invest in an old airframe – you still have an old airframe.”

Additional Readings & Sources

• Gannett’s Military Times – F-15’s midair breakup. Hosts the Pentagon’s Crash Simulation.

• DID Spotlight article – Aging Array of American Aircraft Attracting Attention. The problem is not at all unique to America.

• Reuters (Oct 15/08) – US Air Force eyes fighter cuts to boost modernization. The force cuts would reduce the reserve fleets by about 137 F-15s, but it would also cut 177 F-16 fighters and 9 A-10s. The goal is to save $3.4 billion, to be applied to F-35 purchases.

• Investors Business Daily (Dec 7/07) – The Eagles are Grounded. Quotes ACC chief Maj. Gen. Ronald Keys re: the slippage of fighter fleet average age from 1967 to the present.

• Flight International (Nov 6/07) – VIDEO: Israel and Japan join US in grounding F-15s

• USAF (Nov 6/07) – Mission continues during grounding of F-15s.

• US DoD DefenseLINK (Nov 6/07) – Air Force Grounds F-15 Fleet Following Crash

• Xinhua, via Military.com – Now Japan Grounds F-15 Fighters

• USAF (Nov 4/07) – Air Force suspends some F-15 operations

Americas

• Legislation being considered by the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) could see the last of the USAF’s F-117A Nighthawk fleet sent to the scrap yard. Retired since 2007, a fleet of the pioneering stealth aircraft have been kept in special climate controlled storage hangers in the event they were ever needed again. Now, Congress is considering removing those mothballed aircraft and having them scrapped and gutted for hard-to-find parts.

• With its fourth test aircraft up and running, Boeing has reported a $243 million pre-tax charge for cost overruns on the USAF’s KC-46A Pegasus tanker program. It is believed that the company has incurred out of pocket expenses for the tanker totalling around $1.5 billion since being awarded the the $4.4 billion fixed-priced KC-X development contract in 2011. In total, $6.4 billion has been spent on the tanker, and Boeing is anxious for more funds to be released under the low-rate initial production (LRIP) contract expected later this year.

• The USAF awarded an $82.7 million contract to Space Explorations Tech. (SpaceX) to launch a GPS III satellite in May 2018. The move represents a shift away from the decade-long monopoly held by giants Boeing and Lockheed Martin on military space launches. Work to be carried out under the contract includes production of a Falcon 9 rocket, spacecraft integration, launch operations, and space flight certification.

Middle East North Africa

• UAE has seemingly donated a number of Armored Personnel Carriers (APC) and military pick-up trucks to the UN backed Libyan government based in the city of Torbuk. The amount of vehicles sent by the Gulf emirate is unknown, but a picture posted by the Libyan National Army (LNA) shows dozens of what appear to be new Panthera T-6 light APCs and Toyota Landcruiser pick-up trucks. Together with Egypt and Jordan, the UAE has allegedly defied the UN arms embargo on Libya to become one of the most consistent supporters of the LNA since 2012.

Europe

• Airbus has reported further delays to the development of the A400M with the latest issue involving the engine gearbox of the military transport plane. In a statement following the the first-quarter financial results by chief financial officer Harald Wilhelm, he warned of “serious challenges for production and customer deliveries” of the A400M this year. Negotiations on a new delivery schedule are being held through OCCAR, the European procurement agency.

• Polish company WB Electronics has announced that it has sold a number of its Warmate micro combat unmanned air vehicles to two undisclosed export customers. The system operates as a scaled-down expendable loitering munition, aimed at detecting and countering targets including light tanks and armored vehicles. The Warmate can be operated as an autonomous system transported by the army or special forces, and can also be installed on board military vehicles and controlled through the vehicle’s electronics.

Asia Pacific

• Defense experts in Seoul have reported that North Korea carried out two test-firings of their intermediate range missiles on Thursday with both failing. The seemingly hurried tests involved a Musudan missile with a range of more than 3,000 km, followed later by a similar intermediate range missile, both of which crashed soon after take-off. North Korean missile testing in the face of the UN ban have been escalating as of late in the run up to the ruling Workers’ Party congress to be held on May 6.

• Efforts by India to increase their domestic weaponry and equipment output has hit a stumbling block as domestic and private companies are divided over a new not-yet-implemented Ministry of Defense procurement policy. When brought into force, the policy would identify a select few private sector defense companies to be named Strategic Partners (SP), who could then be nominated to big ticket defense projects. Opposition to the policy mainly comes from over 6,000 small and medium companies who fear that the use of SPs would leave very little for them to be involved in.

Today’s Video

• Iraqi army aviation helicopter strikes against ISIS targets west of Baiji (Salah Ad-Din province):

Falcon 9 Engines

DID has covered SpaceX’s role in DARPA’s Responsive Small Spacelift Launch Vehicles program with its Falcon I design, and noted the Low-Earth Orbit launch contracts it had secured for various customers. RSSLV is designed to create a less expensive, quick launch capability. Yet SpaceX is developing a whole family of launch rockets, and recently announced a much larger Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) class rocket called the Falcon 9.

It’s a long way from the venture’s beginnings, when PayPal founder (and SpaceX CEO) Elon Musk noted that “The computer and Internet revolutions have given a great deal of capital to the ‘Star Wars’ fans.” SpaceX stuck to its original plan – giving private firms and government agencies that want to launch satellites a $6 million alternative to the cheapest existing rockets, which now cost $30 million per flight. Now, it’s branching out.

The Falcon 9

SpaceX initially intended to follow its first vehicle development, Falcon 1, with the intermediate class Falcon 5 launch vehicle. However, in response to customer requirements for low cost enhanced launch capability, SpaceX accelerated development of an EELV-class vehicle, upgrading Falcon 5 to Falcon 9. SpaceX has sold a Falcon 9 launch to a US government customer, and still plans to make Falcon 5 available in late 2007. Their efforts are worth watching, and could affect the military satellite launch market.

With up to a 17 ft (5.2 m) diameter fairing, Falcon 9 is capable of launching approximately 21,000 lbs (9,500 kg) to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) in its medium configuration and 55,000 lbs (25,000 kg) to LEO in its heavy configuration, a lift capacity greater than any other launch vehicle. In the medium configuration, Falcon 9 is priced at $27 million per flight with a 12 ft (3.6 m) fairing and $35 million with a 17 ft fairing. Prices include all launch range and third party insurance costs, and SpaceX claims that this makes Falcon 9 the most cost efficient vehicle in its class worldwide.

Nine SpaceX Merlin engines power the Falcon 9 first stage with 85,000 lbs of sea level thrust per engine, for a total thrust on liftoff of 765,000 pounds. After engine start, Falcon is held down until all vehicle systems are verified to be functioning normally before release for liftoff.

Although in-flight failures are very rarely explosive, a Kevlar shield protects each engine from debris in the event of its neighbor failing. The second stage tank of Falcon 9 is simply a shorter version of the first stage tank and uses most of the same tooling, material and manufacturing techniques. This results in significant cost savings in vehicle production. A single Merlin engine powers the Falcon 9 upper stage, with dual redundant hypergolic igniters (TEA-TEB) with four injection ports for added reliability of restart.

Falcon Family
(click to view full)

SpaceX: Rocket Science With A Difference

SpaceX’s approach to vehicle design is interesting, and may make them a strong lower-budget alternative to Boeing and Lockheed – and a potentially strong competitor to Ariane or Russian launch options.

An overview of SpaceX’s Falcon family of rockets and launch schedules can be found here. Their designs incorporate a number of well thought-out approaches to balancing low cost and reliability.

SpaceX’s analysis noted that the vast majority of launch vehicle failures in the past two decades can be attributed to three causes: engine, stage separation and, to a much lesser degree, avionics failures. An analysis of launch failure history between 1980 and 1999 by Aerospace Corporation showed that 91% of known failures can be attributed to those subsystems.

Falcon 1

In response, they designed Falcon 1 to have only one engine per stage and only one stage separation event – the minimum pragmatically possible number. Falcon 9 uses similar engines, electronics, guidance & control and separation systems to Falcon 1, but is built on a different scale and uses multiple engines.

In the case of Falcon 5 and Falcon 9, the multiple engines are set up so that the vehicles will be capable of sustaining an engine failure at any point in flight and successfully completing their mission. These architectures are improved versions of those employed by the Saturn V and Saturn I rockets of the Apollo Program, which had flawless flight records despite losing engines on a number of missions.

SpaceX hold-before-release system is required by commercial airplanes, but rarely seen on launch vehicles. After first stage engine start, the Falcon is held down and not released for flight until all propulsion and vehicle systems are confirmed to be operating normally. An automatic safe shut-down and unloading of propellant occurs if any off nominal conditions are detected. It is, after all, cheaper to reset a launch than to replace a cargo that is often worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Keeping the design to only one stage separation event, and adding triple redundant flight computers and inertial navigation, with a GPS overlay for additional orbit insertion accuracy, take advantage of design and lowering costs for electronics to address the remaining reliability issues while keeping the cost of launch economical.

Falcon 5 and Falcon 9 will also be the world’s first launch vehicles where all stages are designed for reuse.

Reuse is not currently factored into their launch prices, but SpaceX has publicly stated that it will make further reductions in launch prices when the economics of stage recovery and checkout are fully understood.

SpaceX: The Future

SpaceX founder Elon Musk has stated that eventually, he wants to pave the way for safe and reliable airplane-like trips to space. “If anyone can do it,” says Mike Griffin, a former NASA exec (at the time – he’s now NASA Administrator) and president of the venture-capital firm In-Q-Tel, “Elon can. He has an incredible track record.”

• So, Mike Griffin used to be a former executive of NASA and a current head honcho at In-Q-Tel. Now he’s a former In-Q-Tel executive and a current head honcho at NASA. Thanks to the readers who wrote in to point this out. Does this make him a “re-former” NASA executive? I guess we’ll see.

Updates

April 29/16: The USAF awarded an $82.7 million contract to Space Explorations Tech. (SpaceX) to launch a GPS III satellite in May 2018. The move represents a shift away from the decade-long monopoly held by giants Boeing and Lockheed Martin on military space launches. Work to be carried out under the contract includes production of a Falcon 9 rocket, spacecraft integration, launch operations, and space flight certification.

April 12/16: Last Friday saw SpaceX successfully land a first-stage Falcon 9 rocket on a barge in the Atlantic Ocean. This is the second time SpaceX has successfully landed a rocket back on earth after putting a payload in space, but the first such landing on an ocean-going barge. An earlier attempt at a similar landing failed last December when the first stage rocket tipped over and exploded. Friday’s flight saw the Falcon 9 deliver cargo to the International Space Station.

October 12/15: The Pentagon has denied United Launch Alliance a waiver that would have allowed the company to continue using Russian RD-180 rockets. SpaceX was unhappy that the company’s competitor for defense and intelligence satellite launch services requested the waiver, with ULA previously threatening to withdraw from future competition with SpaceX if the waiver was denied. SpaceX was cleared for national security launches in May, with Congress passing the 2015 defense authorization law in December 2014 to curtail the use of the RD-180 by ULA, resulting in protests from some within the Pentagon earlier this year.

May 28/15: SpaceX has been cleared by the Air Force for national security-related launches, injecting competition into a previous United Launch Alliance monopoly on private DoD launches. This is part of Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain’s efforts to end US reliance on the Russia-manufactured RD-180 rocket for space launches. However, the Pentagon has previously urged Congress to allow ULA to continue using the Russian rockets in order to “ensure access to space”.