German Foreign Policy (DE/FR/EN)

(Own report) - The German government does not preclude a Bundeswehr mission in Syria. According to government circles in Berlin, German military intervention to monitor a future ceasefire in that country is "conceivable," as was confirmed Wednesday. However, the German government rejects military support for France's airstrikes against the "Islamic State" (IS). In the aftermath of last Friday's attacks, Paris has expanded its offensives against IS bases in Syria, and evoked the "EU Mutual Defense Clause" - an unprecedented measure, obligating all EU member states, Germany included, to provide fundamental support. The French government insists on the Bundeswehr joining its offensive against IS, not merely as retaliation for Germany's EU domination. With military offensives against the IS - in which it is already playing a significant role - and by rallying the EU to support its campaign in Syria, under its command, Paris seeks to recuperate at least some of the influence it lost in essential economic and foreign policy areas, over the past few years. Berlin refuses to grant its French rival a strategic advantage.

(Own report) - The austerity dictate, imposed by Berlin on the Eurozone, is a stumbling block for the formation of a democratically legitimized government in Portugal. In the country's recent elections, the Partido Socialista (PS) and two alliances of left-wing parties had won the majority of parliamentary seats because they had promised to reject the former government's harsh austerity program. This was not tolerated in the German-dominated EU, therefore, President Aníbal Cavaco Silva, refuses to mandate the PS to form a new government. Instead, he has called on the former Prime Minister of the conservatives, Pedro Passos Coelho, who had lost the elections. Cavaco Silva declared, Portugal's governments have never relied on "the support of anti-European forces," with reference to the EU critical positions of the two alliances of left parties, which are also not tolerated by Portugal's establishment. It is unclear how this will develop. In spite of the new democratic majority, Passos Coelho may be kept in office for another six months. On various occasions over the past few years, electoral and referendum results have been negated, because they did not correspond to the EU's austerity dictate. Democracy is losing out to the German-inspired austerity.

(Own report) - Following last Friday's terrorist attacks in Paris, leading German media have begun speaking of a new world war. A renowned daily, for example, wrote that "a third world war" is currently being forced upon "the entire planet," warning that the war against IS "is not yet being waged with the intensity needed in a world war." Other journals are calling for resolute action without "half-heartedness" or even "self-recrimination." The fact that after 14 years of the "War on Terror," terrorism is stronger than ever before and the Arab-Muslim world is in shambles is allegedly not the result of a misguided western policy. The West supposedly bears no responsibility for the fact that "processes of disintegration and decivilization" have begun within the "Muslim belt of crisis stretching from Pakistan to Morocco," which has led to a "breakdown of civilization." In addition to the continuation - and even expansion - of the policy of military intervention, various media are also calling for broadening domestic repression. In the case of a "terror threat," the Bundeswehr should take on the task of protecting endangered streets. Among Germany's main national media organs, only one renowned business journal is not participating in this comprehensive orchestration of public opinion and preparation for a "world war." Military escalation "does not bring peace," it only "spawns suicide bombers," warns its chief editor and calls for finally searching for alternatives.

(Own report) - Techniques of anti-Soviet propaganda that had been developed by Nazi officers, could serve today as a model for western anti-Russia psychological warfare operations, according to a semi-official publication from the entourage of the Bundeswehr. The current conflict between Russia and NATO has a "highly pronounced ideological dimension," analogue to the Cold War, explains the author Uwe Hartmann, a colonel in the German armed forces. According to Hartmann, the Russian side is using the "freedoms of Western open societies" to "influence" public opinion with the aim of "relativizing the value of rights and freedoms," "sowing discord" and "insecurity within the population." To counter this strategy, attributed to Russia, Hartmann recommends reversion to the methods of the so-called 'internal leadership' concept elaborated by Wolf Graf von Baudissin, who had been on Hitler's General Staff. This concept calls for preparing the armed forces as well as the society at large for a "permanent civil war" and for the leadership elite to convince Germans of the "worthiness of defending their country," while immunizing them against all "ideological temptations" and "propaganda attacks."

(Own report) - The leading foreign policy journal of Germany is debating NATO's utility. Today, the utility of the Alliance is "unclear," according to the latest edition of "Internationale Politik." Countries in Europe and North America could solve their "security" problems without NATO, whereas - this should be conceded - NATO has done great damage to relations with Russia. In light of the EU's military policy, Washington should encourage the EU to "defend itself," says the author, an expert in an influential US think tank. While "Internationale Politik" is raising fundamental questions, NATO is opening a debate on a new "southern strategy." Since Russia is expanding its naval presence in the Mediterranean and establishing new military bases in Syria, the Mediterranean "is a contested space," according to NATO circles. The deployment of drones in Sicily has been announced, along with plans to intensify cooperation with the countries of the region. "Advisers" are already active in Tunisia, Jordan and Iraq and should also be sent to Libya as soon as possible. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has announced that the debate will be continued at the meeting of NATO foreign ministers, scheduled for early December.

(Own report) - With a special "team" the EU is seeking to create a pro-western media audience in the East European countries and the Caucasus - including Russia - as was confirmed by the German government in its response to a parliamentary interpellation. The EU's "East StratCom Team" seeks to establish networks with journalists in the countries of the EU's "Eastern Partnerships," and in Russia. It is also developing "communication campaigns" systematically aimed at the populations of these countries. "Young people" and academics are among the specially targeted audiences. Overall, the EU team is focusing on the urban middle classes, which, in large sectors of Eastern Europe are pro-western oriented and had significantly supported Ukraine's Maidan protests. Asked about the orientation of these activities, officially labeled as "support for media freedom," the German government has explained that the purpose is to "communicate" one's own position to the public, like the PR-work of governments, parties, and associations. The government has also confirmed that the EU team will examine the East European activities of Deutsche Welle (DW), Germany’s international broadcaster, for possible "synergy effects."

(Own report) - At the upcoming EU summit on refugees in Malta's capital Valletta, Germany will seek to reinforce the border and deportation management aimed at thwarting migration from Africa. According to the German government, the "fight against migrant smuggling and trafficking" as well as the enforcement of the refugees' "return and readmission" by the participating African countries will be central issues to be discussed at next week's summit of EU and African heads of states and governments. Particular emphasis will be placed on "supporting" Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan, Mali and Niger with "police cooperation" to "monitor and control" their borders and the most important routes of migration. EU "liaison officials" should be dispatched to the "relevant African countries" to collect "information on the migration flow" in cooperation with the local repression administrations. "Multifunctional centers" are to be established in Niger and other African countries to demonstrate the "risks of irregular migration" to refugees. In return for stemming the flow of migration and "readmitting" illegal migrants, the African countries of origin and transit will be promised "enhanced" cooperation "on economic, foreign, and development policy issues."

(Own report) - Disputes over US military provocations are accompanying the German chancellor's current visit to China. After a US Navy destroyer transited through the maritime waters claimed by Beijing near the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, the Chinese government summoned the US ambassador. German government sources have confirmed that this conflict will play a role in the talks, Angela Merkel will hold today in Beijing, and expect discord. Berlin is already in a difficult position. The transformation of China's economy from an investment-driven to a consumer- and service-driven growth model will be of disadvantage to the German industry. "German capital goods and automobiles" will most likely "no longer enjoy the same levels of demand growth in China as previously," according to Sebastian Heilmann, Director of the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) in Berlin. Because of the structural transformation of China's economy, the "country’s demand for access to finance and currency markets, as well as general demand for service-related know-how" has increased massively. In this respect, Great Britain "is much better positioned than Germany." A "strategic shift is taking place in European-Chinese relations" - away from Berlin and towards London.

(Own report) - Berlin has announced a "German-Russian Youth Year" for 2016/2017. As former Head of the Federal Chancellery Ronald Pofalla (CDU) declared last week at the conclusion of a German-Russian Cooperation Meeting ("Petersburg Dialogue"), cooperation between German and Russian civil societies are "more important than ever." Therefore, the German government's efforts to intensify the German-Russian student exchange program must be supported. Already at the beginning of the Petersburg Dialogue, which has restarted, following a year's interruption, Chancellor Merkel explained that Germany is "interested in a reliable partnership with Russia." Business functionaries are concluding that willingness to cooperate, which had waned due to the Ukraine conflict, is again growing "on both sides." Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, foresees a "diplomatic process" under Berlin's leadership that will lead to a further rapprochement during Germany's OSCE chair - beginning January 1, 2016. Ischinger explicitly points to similarities to the cold war's so-called détente policy, from which the West emerged the winner.

(Own report) - The EU's Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Cameroon, soon to be implemented, will drive this African country deeper into poverty, Yvonne Takang, Executive Secretary of the Cameroonian civic organization ACDIC explained in an interview with german-foreign-policy.com. The Economic Partnership Agreement, ratified under pressure from Brussels last year in a hush-hush operation, will endanger Cameroon's "agriculture and regional integration," warned Takang, and hamper the country's industrialization. She also signaled resistance to the agreement's implementation. Since 2002, the EU has been seeking to conclude EPAs with former European colonies in Africa, the Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) regions to open markets for European businesses, create attractive investment opportunities, and secure imports of cheap raw materials. The planned deregulation will leave the weaker national economies in Africa unprotected. A well known example of the negative consequences is the local chicken production in Ghana, which virtually collapsed after this West African country opened its markets to European - including German - poultry exports. German slaughterhouses, on the other hand, benefitted, significantly increasing their chicken exports and profits.

(Own report) - The German Bundeswehr is holding another exercise oriented on "Civil-Military Cooperation" (CIMIC) in the context of military interventions. The "Joint Cooperation" exercise will take place in Nienburg County (Lower Saxony) at the end of the month primarily with the participation of soldiers from NATO member countries, and with troops from countries, officially claiming neutrality, such as Austria and Sweden. According to the scenario of the exercise, which has been drawn up in all details, so-called CIMIC forces will operate in a fictitious country at the Horn of Africa that has become the scene of a bloody civil war provoked by a neighboring nation. The unit specialized in "civil-military cooperation" must "assess" the war zone population's situation, to provide the military command the "necessary information" for its "operational planning." The scenario shows a number of parallels to NATO's current large-scale "Trident Juncture" exercise, which also focuses on combating an "aggressor nation," covertly supporting one party to the civil war in the neighboring country. Reference to the situation in Ukraine is explicitly desired.

(Own report) - Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) has been heavily involved in the 1965 murderous putsch in Indonesia - the guest nation of this year's Frankfurt Book Fair. This was confirmed in secret documents from the Bundestag, the German Parliament. According to BND President at the time, Gerhard Wessel's manuscript for a talk he delivered to a session of the Bundestag's "Confidential Committee" in June 1968, the BND did more than merely support the Indonesian military in their blood-soaked "liquidation of the CPI" (Communist Party of Indonesia) - resulting in the murder of hundreds of thousands, possibly even millions - with advisors, equipment and finances. Suharto, who subsequently took power, had even attributed a "large part ... of the success" of the operation to the BND. Up to now, mainly the US-American assistance to the putsch has been known. The putsch, and the more than 30 year-long dictatorship that followed - which also had been reliably promoted by West Germany - are important themes being presented by Indonesian writers at this year's Frankfurt Book Fair. To this day, the German government has refused to allow an investigation of the BND's support for the putsch and the Indonesian military's excessive brutality.

(Own report) - At Berlin's insistence, the EU foreign ministers decided, Monday, to temporarily suspend EU sanctions on Belarus, at least for the next four months. Because of the Ukrainian conflict, Minsk is confronting grave economic and foreign policy difficulties. Because of Russia's economic crisis, Belarusian imports have been drastically reduced and Minsk is forced to seek alternate markets. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka is also worried that Russia's overwhelming power could threaten Belarus' independence and therefore, is actively intensifying his own foreign policy initiatives. To acquire alternate markets and maintain its independence, Minsk cannot avoid reinforcing its relations to the West. Berlin's political establishment is closely monitoring these developments. There is an opportunity for "successfully implementing structural changes" in Belarus, as experts declared just before Sunday's presidential elections. In the hope of weakening Minsk's ties to Moscow and strengthening its bonds to the western hegemonic sphere, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier made a plea for suspending the sanctions. Berlin's political PR is ill at ease with this year's Nobel Literature Prize laureate, Svetlana Alexievich's warning to maintain sanctions - in conformity with EU policy until now.

(Own report) - Now that the sanctions are coming to a close, German enterprises are initiating major investments in Iran and multibillion-dollar gas deals with Teheran. Over the past few weeks, several business delegations have already visited Iran. The state of Bavaria will soon open a business representation in the Iranian capital. On the one hand, German business circles have their eye on the Middle East market, because Iran "is the ventricle of an economic zone comprising a cross-border population of 400 million people." With car sales in Iran, Volkswagen would like to compensate for the slump it is suffering on other major markets, particularly China and Brazil. On the other hand, Berlin and Brussels are trying to acquire access to Iranian natural gas. The EU Commission estimates that by 2030, Iran should be annually selling 25 to 35 billion cubic meters - probably liquid - gas to the EU. BASF natural gas subsidiary Wintershall has also shown interest. During his recent visit in Teheran, Lower Saxony's Minister of the Economy proposed the construction of a LNG terminal in Wilhelmshaven as a German-Iranian joint venture. This is all happening at a time, when the conflict over Syria - with Iran and Russia on the one side and the West on the other - is escalating.

(Own report) - Germany's close Arabian allies are using German weapons to launch their deadly offensive on Yemen's capital. Saudi Arabia has been carrying out its aggression on that country for about half a year, seeking to drive the Huthi rebels, considered allies of Iran, out of Sana'a. The Saudi military is using German weapons to wage its war, and its allies - the United Arab Emirates and Qatar - have also been equipped by German arms manufacturers. The air forces of these three Gulf dictatorships have been training aerial combat with the Bundeswehr and acquired skills that they could now put to use in their offensive on Sana'a. This is significant because observers have noted their extreme ruthlessness in combat methods. More than 5,000 people, half of them civilians, have been killed; a vast number of others have fled. However, the majority of those fleeing cannot leave their country - also because German technology blocks their routes at the Yemeni borders. Relief supplies into the country are insufficient due to a Saudi blockade. More than a quarter of the population is currently suffering acute starvation. Germany, however, is continuing its arms deliveries to Saudi Arabia's war coalition.

(Own report) - Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, is calling for the Bundeswehr's deployment in Syria. It is high time, to discuss "seriously" the creation of so-called safe havens and "no-fly zones in and around Syria," according to Ischinger. This "of course" would call for the participation of the German Armed Forces and in relationship to the deployment of ground forces, "nothing can be ruled out." Ischinger is also providing justification for going to war. Whereas Syria has been submerged in war, because of the arms supplies furnished by the West and its regional allies to insurgent militias - including Al Qaeda and the "Islamic State" (IS), this influential diplomat claims that the current "conflagration" is the consequence of Western non-intervention. These war plans are, however, a reaction to Russia's growing influence also in the Middle East. In recent months, Moscow has been holding extensive negotiations in view of settling the Syrian war. In his speech before the UN General Assembly on September 28, President Putin is expected to propose a new anti-IS coalition, with inclusion of the Syrian government. Therefore, in the framework of the Western Alliance, Berlin would like to counter Russia's growing role in international politics.

(Own report) - Berlin has closed its southern borders to refugees, preventing other victims of civil wars from entering, and has begun deportations of rejected asylum applicants back to Southeast Europe. Inconsistencies among government officials over how to approach the refugee problem have ultimately led to an unexpected influx of tens of thousands of refugees. Thousands in the German population have made a unique display of helpfulness toward refugees, helpfulness, the government will now render futile. At today's EU Interior and Justice Ministers Meeting, measures will be promoted to once again seal the EU borders and establish camps to hold refugees immediately upon their arrivals in Greece, Italy, and possibly Hungary. One such camp has been opened in Germany to separate Southeast European refugees for their rapid deportation. Last week, one hundred eleven refugees were deported by plane to Kosovo. Half of the 250,000 refugees, who entered Germany this year, between January and August, are threatened with immediate deportation. At the same time, demands are being raised to drastically reduce state support for refugees and to abolish the fundamental individual right of asylum.

(Own report) - The German natural gas company, Wintershall Holding GmbH, is intensifying cooperation with Russia's Gazprom and will receive direct access to large Siberian gas fields. Last Friday, the two companies announced they would finalize an asset swap this year, which would allow Wintershall to participate in the exploitation of two blocks in the Achimov formation of the Urengoy natural gas field. The deal had been signed back in 2013, but was canceled by Moscow in late 2014, because of the escalation of the conflict with the West. This resumption enables BASF's subsidiary, Wintershall, to continue its rise in the global gas sector. The Austrian company, OMV, since July 1, under the management of former Wintershall CEO, Rainer Seele, is also participating. Gazprom, Wintershall, OMV and other gas companies have agreed to expand the Russia-to-Germany "Nord Stream" pipeline with two more pipelines. German business circles explicitly describe both as "flagship projects" and push for a rapid re-intensification of cooperation at the political level.

(Own report) - The German Bundeswehr will play a leading role in "Operation Trident Juncture," a large scale NATO exercise, set for late September. German NATO-General Hans-Lothar Domröse will command the exercise involving more than 36,000 soldiers. The German Armed Forces' "Multinational Joint Headquarters" based in Ulm (Baden-Württemberg) will be the main coordinator. "Trident Juncture" will exercise a military intervention in a fictitious country at the Horn of Africa with NATO's "Spearhead" response force, comprised mainly of Bundeswehr soldiers. According to the training scenario, not only will western troops be confronting a regular army and guerilla fighters, but will also encounter "food insecurity," "massive population displacements," "cyber-attacks," "chemical warfare," and "information warfare." According to Lt. Gen. Richard Rossmanith, commander of the "Multinational Joint Headquarters Ulm," "Operation Trident Juncture" will not only send a "message" to Russia: "Everyone should consider carefully about how they deal with us" - because NATO is "the strongest military alliance in the world" with a "360 degree" orientation.

(Own report) - The German government is firmly committed to promoting the German arms industry. According to a "strategy paper" recently adopted by the cabinet, the government is planning to "increase investments" in the development of "defense-related technologies." It also wants to step up "political support" for German arms companies' business activities, which - if necessary - could be extended to "third countries" non-members of the EU or NATO, and could explicitly include the export of combat hardware. Bilateral agreements should also be concluded with "partner countries" to enhance the "opportunities for German companies" in "large-scale foreign [arms] procurement projects," according to the paper. These measures comply with the demands of German arms manufacturers, who, for quite some time, have been in "dialogue" with government representatives. One of the results of the "dialogue," announced by Vice-Chancellor and Minister for the Economy Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) is the government's support of defense contractors "to obtain access to the evolving markets of civilian security technologies" as well as, in their "cooperation efforts with developing and threshold countries."