German Foreign Policy (DE/FR/EN)

(Own report) - Moderate business success and lack of unity among the leading western powers are affecting Germany's current policy toward Iran. Last year, German companies were able to significantly expand their business with Iran; however, they did not achieve the ambitious level they had been hoping to reach. Despite the 25 percent increase in German exports to Iran, it seems unlikely that the aspired export volume of ten billion euros will be reached in the next few years. The strong market position of the People's Republic of China - which had not joined the western sanctions - is one of the reasons. Russia also has gained considerable influence and can not only hope for contracts in the oil and natural gas sectors, but also for the expansion of the broad gauge railway network up to the Persian Gulf. Whereas the United States does not want to abandon its military trump and prefers to persist in war threats, the German government is seeking to serve as mediator in the unrelenting hegemonic conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, no breakthrough is in sight.

(Own report) - In light of the drastic warnings of the EU's possible disintegration, Berlin seeks to prevent the formation of contending forces. "The European Union is drifting apart to an extent hardly imaginable 15 years ago," according to a recent analysis, written by a board member of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). The "dividing lines" between the north and the impoverishing south, as well as between western and eastern EU member countries are disquieting. To prevent the formation of a southern European bloc opposing the German austerity dictate, Berlin is particularly trying to integrate France into its EU policy. Yesterday, the German chancellor sought closer cooperation with the Czech Republic and Slovakia, to undermine an alliance of the Visegrád members against German predominance. At the same time, promotion of the EU has been intensified within Germany. German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel explained how Germany ultimately profits from its net contributions to the EU budget: The success of German exports depends on "the people in the other EU countries" being able "to afford" German products - with the help of Brussels' subsidies.

(Own report) - German military specialists are evaluating the growing significance of the Baltic and the Black Seas in the West's power struggle with Moscow. These two "marginal seas" are of great importance to Russia, according to a recent analysis published in the specialized periodical "MarineForum." Whereas the Baltic Sea serves Russian maritime trade as a "gateway to the Atlantic," the Russian Navy needs the Black Sea as a strategically central "diving board into the Mediterranean," facilitating Russia to gain influence from the Middle East all the way to the Indian Ocean. Whereas NATO controls the access to both "marginal seas," Moscow is seeking to consolidate its strategic positions, and to better extend its reach from the Black Sea into the Mediterranean. NATO is seeking countermeasures to again confine Russia, the MarineForum writes. Germany is also expanding its activities in and at the Black Sea and is inviting allied navies to participate in joint maneuvers in the Baltic Sea.

(Own report) - With last Saturday's "Rome Declaration", the EU has declared its commitment to an offensive global policy, including an intensified militarization, as was demanded by Berlin. In the coming years, the Union must play "a key role in the world," the declaration states, while calling for "strengthening its common security and defence." At the same time, German government advisors are vigorously demanding that the militarization decisions already taken, be rapidly implemented. Berlin and Paris could conclude a joint 40 billion euro program for new measures for dealing with "missions, procurement, capabilities and counter-terrorism," according to a document published by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). The Bundeswehr could also integrate troops from other EU countries to form "a sort of Europe Division." On the weekend, Hungary's foreign minister affirmed his country's support. In a recent resolution, the European Parliament stressed the need for increasing military spending with an extra €100 billion by the end of the coming decade. Couched in the usual propaganda phraseology, the "Rome Declaration" states "we have united for the better."

(Own report) - Berlin and Brussels are intensifying their pressure on London prior to next Wednesday's official Brexit notification. "Britain's example" will make all others see "it's not worth leaving," European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker declared. According to Brussels, the Brexit could cost the United Kingdom up to 60 billion euros. London sharply objects to this impertinence, pointing out that, the EU and particularly Germany, are dependent, for economic and military considerations, on consensual exit regulations. German industry would in fact be hit hard by a hostile British exit. Britain is Germany's export-oriented economy's third largest customer and second largest location for German direct investments. For quite some time, Berlin also has set its hopes on Great Britain's contribution to the EU's militarization - even after Brexit - because of the military clout of its armed forces and its nuclear arms.

(Own report) - Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe opened the CeBIT digital trade fair in Hanover on Sunday, emphasizing their commitment to expand German-Japanese cooperation. Japan is "a friend," Merkel declared, with whom one can advance in promoting digitalization. Japan had once been the Federal Republic of Germany's most important East Asian business partner, but, in terms of German foreign investments and trade, it has fallen far behind China over the past few years. Even though strategically highly significant, from a German point of view, economic relations have been stagnating. A counterweight to Beijing in East Asia would be advantageous for Berlin's foreign policy. Germany has therefore begun to expand military cooperation with the Japanese armed forces. During his visit in Tokyo last November, Germany's President, at the time, Joachim Gauck, explicitly encouraged Japan's rearmament, which is pointed directly at China. Having taken a sharp nationalist course, the Japanese government will send a new helicopter carrier to train with the US Navy in the South China Sea in May.

(Own report) - Scotland has established an investment center in Berlin, thereby reinforcing its economic ties to the EU and causing - with German support - new tension in Great Britain. According to critics, in its intended secession from the United Kingdom, for which it must establish economic security, the Scottish government is relying on German help. In fact, to increase the pressure on London to achieve the "softest" Brexit possible, Berlin and Germany's regional governments are going out of their way to strengthen relations with Edinburgh. This is considered essential to German interests. Government advisors in Berlin are recommending using Ireland for obtaining influence in the negotiations concerning the borders between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland. In the event of a "hard" Brexit, this border would be a particularly sensitive point. Berlin is also using EU foreigners, residing in the United Kingdom, as an additional bargaining chip. Chancellor Angela Merkel has refused to have their rights of residence clarified beforehand.

(Own report) - In spite of the Turkish government's recent provocations, Berlin is steadfastly maintaining its cooperation with Ankara. Over the past few days, members of the Turkish government have affronted several EU countries as "fascist," thereby again provoking sharp protests. For some time, human rights organizations and other critics of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have been up in arms over Ankara's brutal violations of human and civil rights, its attempt to establish a presidential dictatorship and its arbitrary incarceration of citizens of foreign countries. Last week, Chancellor Angela Merkel declared that her objective was to prevent Turkey from "becoming even more alienated from us," which is why we must persist in our cooperation. Since some time, government advisors in Germany's capital have been warning that Ankara is seriously considering joining the Chinese-Russian Alliance (the Shanghai Cooperation Organization - SCO), and that, within the Turkish establishment, voices calling for Turkey to leave NATO are growing louder. That would be a serious setback for Berlin's ambitions to become a world power, which for geostrategic reasons, is dependent on its cooperation with Ankara.

(Own report) - The German government's Kurdish protégés in Northern Iraq are using German weapons to attack the Yazidi minority. This has been confirmed by new photo and video documents circulating around the internet for the past few days. These documents depict the Erbil-based Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) Peshmerga and its allied militias attacking Yazidis with Dingo infantry mobility vehicles (IMV), G36 assault rifles and other German weapons. The Peshmerga is seeking to round off the KRG territory and annex the region surrounding Shingal ("Sinjar" in Arabic) before the planned secession from Iraq of the regions under Erbil's control. Shingal had been the focus of international attention in the summer of 2014, when the IS/Daesh killed thousands of Yazidis and abducted, enslaved and raped thousands of Yezidis. Yazidis, who have always been harassed and discriminated against by the KRG are now fearing expulsion. For years, Erbil - which Berlin is supporting politically, as well as with training and arms for its Peshmerga - has been systematically expelling Arab speaking inhabitants from the territories under its control. Already in 2015, US observers were accusing the KRG of "ethnic cleansing."

(Own report) - With today's special summit of four heads of state, Berlin is preparing the EU's transformation in response to the Brexit. The German chancellor will meet in Versailles this afternoon with France's president and the prime ministers of Italy and Spain. Selected southern EU members have been included in alleged leadership meetings with the German chancellor to prevent a southern European bloc from emerging, which could possibly, in the future, put an end to German austerity dictates. With Great Britain's exit, the neo-liberal oriented EU countries are loosing the necessary quorum for a veto in EU bodies. Berlin could also encounter problems with the Eastern European "Visegrád Group," which does not want to support the emergence of a powerful integrated core around a German hub, because it would consolidate a two or even three-class EU. Reinforcement of the EU's anti-refugee border-management and particularly its resolute militarization are emerging as the common denominators for the Union's transformation.

(Own report) - A new "White Paper" is supposed to precipitate the debate about the EU's future. The paper, presented by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday, sketches out five scenarios for the EU's possible development. These should be taken into consideration in preparations for the EU's March 25 special summit. One of the scenarios corresponds to that of the "multi-speed EU," which Chancellor Angela Merkel had recently called for. Juncker also now favors this demand. This demand means that certain groups of countries forge ahead with intensive cooperation in particular fields of politics leaving others two or three steps behind. This scenario permits the creation of multinational armed forces in Europe, in spite of persistent resistance from several EU member states. This is why Berlin favors it as a solution. Another of Juncker's scenarios suggests that the EU reduce its number of key policy fields, to include warding off refugees, foreign and military policy. With elements of this scenario, Berlin could avoid paying billions to shoulder the consequences of the Brexit - at the expense of poorer EU members.

(Own report) - The regional government in Kurdish-speaking northern Iraq, which enjoys Berlin's support, is calling for breaking up the country and establishing its own state. A referendum on secession is a "natural, God-given right of the people in Kurdistan," declared Masoud Barzani, President of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG). The issue is national independence, KRG Foreign Minister Falah Mustafa underlined. Consultations on these topics were allegedly held on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Barzani explicitly does not include Syrian and Turkish Kurdish-speaking regions in his plans to establish a state. Experts have long been warning against the possibility of Iraq's disintegration or being plunged into a new civil war, once IS/Daesh is defeated. The KRG can rely on Germany's legwork, in its demand for national independence. Berlin has been particularly keen to support the Kurdish-speaking regions in Iraq and has even trained and armed the KRG's military forces, the "Peshmerga," since September 2014 - within the framework of the war against IS/Daesh. Berlin has consistently ignored human rights organizations and US experts' allegations that, in the wake of this war, the Peshmerga is carrying out "ethnic cleansing," to expel unwelcome Arabs from its "Kurdistan" of tomorrow.

(Own report) - The Mexican government is pushing to rapidly modernize its free trade agreement with the EU and has declared its "close affinity" to Germany, following US President Trump's threats of massive reprisals by building a wall at the border and imposing punitive tariffs. Because of its extreme dependence on the USA, Mexico can only hold its ground by intensifying its relations with other countries, according to Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray. Mexico's enticements are greeted with sympathy by German business circles. The majority of German firms active in Mexico had already decided on new investments and is planning to carry these out, despite expected disadvantages from the projected US trade policy. Experts assume that the US administration cannot afford excessive punitive tariffs or other exorbitant escalations. At an appearance last week in Mexico, Siemens CEO Joe Kaeser ostentatiously announced investments worth US $200 million and signed an agreement of intent with Mexico's Minster of Economics for infrastructure and industrial projects with a possible volume of up to US $36 billion.

(Own report) - At the Munich Security Conference last weekend, the German government assumed the role of an ally "on a par" with the United States. The chancellor and several ministers of Germany formulated conditions for continued cooperation with the US government, while holding out the prospect of a "stronger Europe," which, according to Germany's Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, should be capable of independently "coping successfully" with the "reality of crises and wars outside the bounds of the European Union." Appropriate rearmament measures are being prepared. The chancellor conceives of a military budget increase of around eight percent annually, while the discussion on German-European nuclear arms is continuing. Publicists are hinting at the possibility of Berlin sharing influence over the Force de Frappe through co-financing France's nuclear arms arsenal. Berlin is still relying on the alliance with Washington, at least for the time being, because rearmament and access to nuclear arms take time.

(Own report) - In the run-up to the Munich Security Conference this weekend, leading German foreign policy experts are calling on the EU to reposition itself on the world stage, replacing the United States as the West's "torchbearer." Since Washington's change of government, the United States no longer "qualifies as the symbol of the West's political and moral leadership," according to Wolfgang Ischinger, Chair of the Munich Security Conference. It is therefore up to Europe "to make up for this loss." Chancellor Angela Merkel will hold a programmatic speech at this weekend's conference, focusing on the future relationship between the EU and the USA. In anticipation of the looming power struggle, in the German capital, the EU is already being warned not to allow itself to be torn apart by outside rivals. Deputy Foreign Minister Michael Roth cautioned against "special deals" being made between individual EU countries and the new Trump administration. If there is sufficient coherence necessitating, for example, majority decisions in foreign policy, "we Europeans" could become an "impressive political and military power," Ischinger cajoled.

(Own report) - Frank-Walter Steinmeier, President-elect of the Federal Republic of Germany is the epitome of the past two decades of Berlin's expansionist policy - from the war over Kosovo to intervention in the Syrian war. As State Secretary in the Federal Chancellery, Steinmeier was implicated in the aggression against Yugoslavia in the spring of 1999, with which Germany, in violation of international law, entered its first war of aggression since 1945. As head of the Federal Chancellery, he had participated in the struggle to obtain access to Russia's vast natural gas reserves. As Foreign Minister, he was massively striving to roll back Russia's political influence by associating Ukraine with the EU, even condoning a coup - with fascist participation - in Kiev. Steinmeier's activities had also been influenced by the so-called war on terror. In the Chancellery, he played a leading role in cooperation with the CIA's torture program. In the fall of 2002, he helped to prevent an innocent native of Bremen from being released to Germany from the US Guantanamo torture camp. He was complicit in the interrogation of German suspects in Syrian and Lebanese torture chambers. Just recently, Steinmeier provided political support to a jihadist militia, classified a terror organization by the German judiciary.

(Own report) - The Polish government's éminence grise, Jarosław Kaczyński, has picked up the German establishment's call to acquire its own nuclear weapons. He would welcome it, if the EU would become a "nuclear superpower," Kaczyński told a leading German daily. Last week, the left liberal, government critical "Panorama" television program of the ARD's Norddeutscher Rundfunk channel called for launching an "open debate" on the "German nuclear bomb," because "no state" could presently be "confident" that the USA, under President Trump, would "unconditionally defend the other NATO allies." To "deter" Russia from attacking a member of the Alliance, in this situation, it is necessary to have national control over nuclear weapons, claimed the authors of the program. Numerous experts from think tanks, the media and from the political domain have expressed similar views, even while differing, on whether to confide the nuclear war potential to the authority of the EU's military bodies or to the German government.

(Own report) - While Sigmar Gabriel was making his first official visit as Germany's Foreign Minister to Washington last week, the dispute over Washington's likely ambassador to the European Union was escalating. The candidate for that post in Brussels, Ted Malloch, does not rule out the collapse of the euro in the 18 months to come. He also conceives of a possible dismantling - or even collapse - of the European Union and has announced that Washington will negotiate more with individual countries, than with Brussels. This could lead to a further accentuation of the existing rifts in the EU. Thus, Berlin is trying hard to prevent Malloch's nomination. The leaders of several European Parliamentary groups are demanding that his accreditation be blocked - until recently, an unimaginable affront. At the same time, Berlin seeks to position itself as the corrective counterpart to Trump's Washington in the escalating transatlantic power struggle. Last week in Washington, Foreign Minister Gabriel staged an unprecedented appearance as headmaster on the subject of democracy and human rights. Some members of the German establishment are expecting the EU's ascent parallel to the United States' descent on the world stage.

(Own report) - In the looming trade war between the EU and the USA, Brussels is threatening to officially denounce the United States as a "tax haven." The EU Commission is currently preparing this affront to the world power, following Washington's strong criticism of Germany's excessive trade surplus. In the six years, from 2010 to 2015 alone, this surplus has led to an outflow of nearly a quarter trillion euros to Germany from the United States because of the "grossly undervalued" euro, according to Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro. This has been confirmed by the Bundesbank's recent analysis, showing that through its monetary policy the European Central Bank (ECB) has contributed to the euro's undervaluation, which in turn has facilitated record German exports and the large US deficit. The trade conflict is flanked by a propaganda offensive against the Trump administration, exploiting the new US president's racist and chauvinist policies to designate him as an enemy. This conflict could lead to the first major power struggle between Germany and the United States since 1945.

(Own report) - The first telephone call between the German chancellor and the US president was flanked by appeals for the EU to close ranks. Following Saturday's call, both parties declared that they would "deepen" their bilateral relations. However, Berlin is preparing to assert its own interests offensively vis-à-vis Russia - also with the EU's help. This is why the EU must finally "close ranks," as German politicians are demanding. On Saturday, on his first foreign visit as German Foreign Minister, Sigmar Gabriel met his Parisian counterpart Jean-Marc Ayrault. His vigorous insistence "that Germany and France demonstrate they have common positions on nearly all issues" was also aimed at closing the EU's ranks. While Gabriel was visiting France, the seven southern European countries' heads of states and governments - including the French president - were meeting in Lisbon to determine their own positions, also regarding their economic policy. In view of British Prime Minster Theresa May's recent visit to the USA, observers note that the Brexit is creating "a second geopolitical pole in Europe," and "for Germany, which has become accustomed to speak in the name of Europe, [...] this is not a favorable development."