Africa

November 16, 2015 (BENTIU) – The two main warring parties in South Sudan's conflict have accused each other of fresh violations in areas south west of Rubkotna county in oil-producing Unity state, despite the recent security deal reached in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

South Sudanese rebel troops loyal to former vice-president Riek Machar stand on guard in Unity state capital Bentiu on 12 January 2014 after recapturing the strategic town from government troops (Photo: Reuters)

This latest accusations, if confirmed, signify a serious setback to last month's breakthrough in the security arrangement between the armed opposition faction (SPLA-IO) and President Salva Kiir's government.

An armed opposition told Sudan Tribune that pro-government attacked areas around Nhialdiu payam and parts of south and northern Unity state in violation of the peace deal.

“Since yesterday [Sunday] evening, pro-government were shelling our positions in various frontlines until this morning [Monday] when our gallant forces and local youths from Rubkotna responded in self-defence to overrun Nhialdiu,” Major Weirial Puok, the spokesperson for SPLM-IO said.

The said pro-government forces acted with instructions from Unity state's caretaker governor, claims Sudan Tribune could not independently verify.

Puok said the armed opposition was committed to the security agreement and urged the Juba govermment to desist from acts of military aggression.

“It is very clear that the government is on violation. This mean that they do not value the peace agreement which has a few weeks left for its effective implementation,” he stressed.

Meanwhile, Unity state's cabinet affairs minister also confirmed the clashes that occurred in Nhialdiu payam, but largely blamed the attack on the armed opposition forces.

“Yesterday [Sunday] there was actually an attack until today people are now fighting in Nhialdiu and that is a government control area. I report it officially to UN [United Nations] and I have informed the IGAD [Intergovernmental Authority on Development] to talk with the IO in their part and to verify the information correctly,” said Chuol Biel.

“And my message to the armed opposition is that they should observe and abide by the signed peace agreement,” added Biel, who is currently the acting caretaker governor.

(ST)

November 16, 2015 (JUBA) – Angry civilians attacked a military barracks in South Sudan's Eastern Equatoria state over the weekend and killed a soldier before making off with several ammunitions, area authorities and local residents said on Monday.

South Sudanese SPLA soldiers are pictured in Pageri in Eastern Equatoria state on August 20, 2015 (Photo AFP/Samir Bol)

The attack came a day after an area engineer was killed and the suspects allegedly retreated to a barracks located near Ikwotos county headquarters.

Local residents told Sudan Tribune that Engineer Lopus Athanasio was shot dead about three kilometers from the county headquarters Wednesday.

Traces of the killer's footsteps reportedly led residents to an army barracks forcing angry youth armed with machetes and rifles to retaliate. While at the army unit, the group demanded that soldiers hand over the engineer's killers.

The army allegedly responded by firing at the youth and this sparked off the violence.

“When we talked to them, they denied and ordered us out of the barracks and as we were getting out they started shooting us with machine guns and threw a hand grenade [at us]. We then decided to shoot back to them,” a local resident, who preferred anonymity, told Sudan Tribune over phone.

Sounds of gunfire reportedly caused panic as scared residents scampered for safety.

Authorities in Eastern Equatoria state, however, said they had dispatched a team of investigators to determine the cause of the violence.

“Between the time of following the footprints which went to the barracks but did not enter inside, and before they investigated why the footprints were traced to the barracks, confusion erupted among the civilians and the army of which 32 huts of the army were burnt and one army [man] killed,” said local government minister, Lokai Iko.

According to the commissioner for Ikwotos county, Peter Lokeng, those who attacked the military detach stole properties, including six AK-47 rifles.

“We received some guns which have been looted by civilians about six and also the properties of soldiers were reportedly burnt,” he said, urging residents to remain calm.

The army spokesperson, Col. Philip Aguer said he was unaware of the violent incident.

(ST)

November 16, 2015 (KHARTOUM) - More than 381 people have been infected and 118 others have died over the past four months after coming down with dengue fever in the western Sudan region of Darfur, a heath official said on Monday.

yellow fever patients being treated at the isolation wards of Nyala Teaching Hospital -(File Photo WHO)

The Sudanese state health minister Sumia Idriss said that the outbreak of dengue fever, killed 118 people in the five states of Darfur since last August. However she expected a decrease on cases suspected of the disease saying the region may be declared free of the fever within three weeks.

While briefing the parliament about the situation in Darfur, Idriss further said that up to Friday 13 November the highest number of reported cases is in West Darfur (268) followed by Central Darfur (53), North Darfur (43), East Darfur (11) and South Darfur (6).

She further told the Sudanese legislators that the death rate stands at one percent.

The state minister further said that the ministry dispatched medical teams to the region and provided the technical support. She said the government allocated 103 Million SP to address the situation, indicating that the dengue fever have no specific medical treatment so far but efforts are focused on the preventive measures to combat the transmission of the disease.

Dengue fever is spread by mosquito bites and manifests itself in symptoms including a sudden high fever, rashes, nausea, headaches and others. There is no treatment that specifically addresses the ailment though measures can be taken to mitigate its symptoms.
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For his part, the federal minister of Health Bahar Idriss Abu Garda Monday briefed President Omer Hassan al-Bashir about the measures taken by his ministry to combat the outbreak in Darfur.

Speaking to the media after the meeting, Abu Garda said that the dengue fever has been reduced in Darfur thanks to the efforts exerted by the ministry of health in the region.

He pointed out that the ministry is ready to combat any outbeak, adding that President Bashir has directed to provide the needed services through the comprehensive health coverage.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that there is a need for $1.94 million to implement a comprehensive response and containment plan the the World Health Organization (WHO) prepared together with the Sudanese health ministry.

OCHA further said that the government provided 3.45 million Sudanese Pounds (about US$557,000), for the affected states.

The comprehensive response plan covers all aspects of disease surveillance, laboratory analysis, vector control, case management and community mobilization, the UN agency said.

(ST)

November 16, 2015 (BOR) - The Twic East county population in South Sudan's Jonglei state have asked for military protection in the wake of increased rebel activities in the area.

The map of Jonglei state in red

A state MP representing people with special needs in Twic East, Deng Ajang, told reporters in the capital, Bor Monday that fear has forced several people out of their houses after the Maar village incident that killed 21 people, injuring eight others.

Ajang accused the country's armed opposition forces (SPLM/IO) of attacking Maar village last week. These allegations were, however, dismissed by the rebels.

“The fear is there, the fear of any attack since they [the rebels] are targeting civilians, it has caused a lot of fear among the people. People who fear their lives, will see how best they will be safe”, he said, in reference to civilians who fled to flooded islands in swamps.

Ajang said government forces have not surfaced in the village since last week's attack.

“The [Sudan Peoples Liberation Army] SPLA is informed, and will come to verify the attack and see the body of one of the attackers who has been killed”, stressed the lawmaker.

Meanwhile, humanitarian agencies currently operating in the world's youngest nation have expressed their concerns over the thousands of the population fleeing the area, mostly children and women, amidst warnings of a potential disaster in the offing.

Other agencies, on the other hand, said their developmental projects in villages affected would be derailed for a number of months since they would have no civilians to assist.

Critics of the country's ruling party say the SPLM policy of taking towns to the people in the villages wouldn't be feasible this time where nobody, within the government, allegedly cares about the mass killing of unprotected civilians by either rebels or raiders.

(ST)

November 16, 2015 (JUBA) – The South Sudanese justice minister, Paulino Wanawilla on Monday acknowledged the existence of corrupt officials in government, saying even staff in his ministry mandated to prosecute those involved in corruption engage in the practice.

Anti-corruption activists demonstrate in the South Sudan capital, Juba,on 11 June 2012 (ST)

Speaking at the opening of a one month long training for public prosecutors on Monday, Wanawilla urged legal experts to have ethics and professionalism.

“I know in South Sudan corruption is not in one place, but it's very sad when everybody is stealing,” he said.

“I know [there is corruption]. I have evidences of people in this ministry [of justice] who are legal counselors and take bribes,” the minister added, without further elaboration.

Allegation of corruption and admission of it existence are not new in South Sudan. Since its independence, however, nobody has ever been prosecuted for graft.

Since the ruling Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) came to power in 2005 over $4 billion of state funds have gone unaccounted for, according the South Sudan's President Salva Kiir.In July 2012, President Kiir wrote to 75 top politicians asking them to return money stolen from public coffers and be exempted from prosecution. It remains unknown if any money was returned to an account opened in neighbouring Kenya.

South Sudan was perceived as one of the most corrupt countries in the world, the 2014 Transparency International's annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) indicated. Only four countries ranked worse than South Sudan, which was 171st out of 175 nations listed.

(ST)

November 16, 2015 (KHARTOUM) – The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) warned that unusually heavy and widespread rains that fell recently in northwest Africa, the Horn of Africa and Yemen could favor desert locust breeding.

A man holds locusts as a Swarm of locusts arrives in Israel near the Egyptian border on March 6, 2013 in Kmehin, Israel (Photo by Uriel Sinai/Getty Images)

"Extreme weather events, including torrential downpours, have the potential to trigger a massive surge in locust numbers. Rain provides moist soil for the insects to lay their eggs, which in turn need to absorb water, while rains also allow vegetation to grow which locusts need for food and shelter," said Keith Cressman, FAO Senior Locust Forecasting Officer.

"The effects of a locust plague can be devastating on crops and pastures and thus threaten food security and rural livelihoods," he added.

FAO said that in the winter breeding areas along both sides of the Red Sea, seasonal rains began in early October, which is slightly earlier than normal.

“If the rains continue, there would be sufficient time for two generations of breeding to occur this year in the coastal areas of Sudan, northern Eritrea, southeast Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Yemen”.

FAO emphasized that prevention through early warning and early reaction is the key in reducing damage caused by desert locust on agricultural areas.

“After unusually heavy rainfall, it is imperative that countries mount the necessary field surveys and maintain them on a regular basis for routine monitoring of breeding conditions and locust infestations. The finding of significant infestations requires control operations to avoid a further escalation in locust numbers. It is critical that the results of survey and control operations are reported quickly and accurately so that swift decisions can be taken to prevent the spread of locusts to other countries”.

FAO noted that it operates a desert locust Information Service that receives data from locust-affected countries. This information is regularly analyzed together with weather and habitat data and satellite imagery in order to assess the current locust situation, provide forecasts up to six weeks in advance and if required issue warnings and alerts.

In 2013, Sudan entered a dispute with FAO with the former saying that the latter is conspiring against the country in its attempt to combat a locusts invasion.

At the time, the Sudanese government said it wrote to FAO asking it for help but that the UN body offered a mere $25,000 in assistance which they saw as an insult.

(ST)

November 16, 2015 (KHARTOUM) - Security agents at Khartoum airport Monday have delayed entry of two opposition figures into the country upon their return from France where they attended opposition meeting.

Civil Society Initiative (CSI) delegation members Galeela Khamis (L), Abdallah Musa (C) and Babiker Mohamed al-Hassan wait to collect their belongings after their arrival to Khartoum airport on Nov 16, 2015. (Picture taken by Mariam al-Mahdi)

The deputy chairman of the opposition National Umma Party (NUP) Mariam al-Mahdi said in a WhatsApp text message the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) delayed her entry to the country along with the member of the Civil Society Initiative (CSI) Babiker Mohamed al-Hassan upon their arrival from Paris.

She pointed out that security agents handed them over their passports and allowed them to enter the country after 15 minutes.

However al-Mahdi didn't mention whether the two other members of the CSI delegation Galeela Khamis and Abdallah Musa who were accompanying them went through the same measure or not.

On Sunday, the opposition alliance National Consensus Forces (NCF) said that NISS detained the chairman of the Sudanese National Alliance Party (SNAP) Kamal Ismail early morning upon his return from Paris for several hours and expected that the rest of the returnees would face the same fate.

The opposition “Sudan Call” forces including the NCF, National Umma Party (NUP), rebel umbrella Sudan Revolutionary Forces (SRF) and the Civil Society Initiative (CSI) held a four-day meeting outside Paris to discuss issues of regime change as well as organizational issues pertaining to the alliance.

They decided to work for the establishment of a transitional national government either through dialogue or popular uprising.

(ST)

November 16, 2015 (KHARTOUM) - The African Union (AU) said that Khartoum and the rebel movements have officially approved to participate in talks on security arrangements in the states of Blue Nile, South Kordofan and Darfur region in Addis Ababa on Wednesday.

AUHIP head Thabo Mbeki chairs a meeting with of the government (R) and rebel delegations on 30 November 2014 (Courtesy photo/ AUHIP)

The head of the AU Liaison Office in Sudan, Mahmoud Kane, told the pro-government Sudan Media Center (SMC) that the Sudanese government and the rebel movements are ready to resume the talks on Wednesday, stressing that all negotiating teams will arrive in Addis Ababa on Tuesday.

He said that Khartoum informed the AU that its negotiating team for the Darfur issue would be headed by the Darfur peace implementation follow-up office state minister, Amin Hassan Omer, while the presidential aide Ibrahim Mahmoud Hamid will lead the delegation for the talks on the Two Areas.

Kane also pointed that all Darfur movements and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/North (SPLM-M) have named their negotiating teams except the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM-AW) led by Abdel-Wahid al-Nur.

The SLM-AW which refuses to participate in any negotiations with the government since Abuja peace process, says Khartoum provide security to civilians by disarming its militias and expel new comers from the land of IDPs before to negotiate a peace agreement of the root cause of the conflict.

In the same context, the secretary general of the Popular Congress Party (PCP) and member of the dialogue body known as 7+7 Kamal Omer said the presidential aide Ibrahim Mahmoud will travel to Addis Ababa on Tuesday, saying he is expected to discuss with the rebel leaders Thursday the necessary guarantees for their participation in the ongoing dialogue conference in Khartoum.

Omer told Sudan Tribune that he will also leave for Addis Ababa to convince Darfur rebels to participate in the dialogue conference, saying the PCP would seek to capitalize on its good ties with Darfur movements.

He stressed that the chairman of the Reform Now Movement (RNM) Ghazi al-Attabani won't participate in the dialogue preparatory meeting because he is no longer member of the 7+7 mechanism following his party's withdrawal from the dialogue process.

For his part, the government spokesperson Ahmed Bilal Osman said the agenda of the talks with the SPLM-N on the Two Areas would revolve around the cessation of hostilities while negotiations on Darfur will based upon the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD).

He pointed that a dialogue preparatory meeting including the government, rebel umbrella Sudan Revolutionary Forces (SRF) and the National Umma Party (NUP) would be held subsequently if the government and the rebels reached an agreement on the cessation of hostilities.

Osman said the mini preparatory meeting will be based upon the roadmap approved by the 7+7 committee and the Addis Ababa agreement.

The SRF and the NUP from one side and 7+7 committee from the other side on 5 September 2014 signed an agreement on identical term with the AU High Implementation Panel (AUHIP) “on the national dialogue and constitutional process”.

Last October, the AU announced that a mini-pre-dialogue meeting will be held with the participation of the SRF and the NUP following the security talks on the Two Areas and Darfur , disclosing the Sudanese government agreed to take part in the meeting.

Khartoum had previously refused to participate in a comprehensive preparatory meeting including the political opposition and civil society groups. Only it reiterated its readiness to meet the rebels to discuss the conditions and guarantees related to their participation in the internal process.

However, the Sudanese president Omer al-Bashir last October instructed the 7+7 committee to meet with the signatories of Addis Ababa agreement.

REBEL LEADERS TO JOIN DIALOGUE CONFERENCE

Meanwhile, the 7+7 committee has disclosed that some rebel leaders will join the dialogue conference during the coming few days.

7+7 committee member from the opposition side Omran Yahia Omran told reporters Monday that the dialogue conference would reveal much of its outcome next week, saying the committee is delighted that some rebel groups are closely following the conference and seeking to participate in it.

“The ongoing conference is a Sudanese/Sudanese dialogue and it doesn't need international monitoring or guardianship of any party,” he said.

He added the national constitutional dialogue which was demanded by the opposition “Sudan Call” forces in its recent meeting in Paris could be held within the dialogue conference in Khartoum.

Omran said the dialogue conference is going on as planned, pointing the 7+7 committee held three meetings since October 10th to assess the dialogue process and challenges facing it.

He said the 7+7 committee has urged that holdout opposition to participate in the dialogue conference.

MEETING THE EU

In another context, information minister Ahmed Bilal Osman has briefed the European Union (EU) ambassador to Khartoum, Thomas Ulicny, on the dialogue process and the upcoming talks with the rebel movements in Addis Ababa.

Ulicny said in press statement following the meeting that the EU would support the talks between the government and the rebel groups.

He expressed appreciation for Sudan's stance towards the recent terrorist attacks in Paris.

(ST)

November 16, 2015 (JUBA)-South Sudanese government disputed media reports quoting leading officials in the armed opposition leadership expressing doubts of participation of their leader, Riek Machar, in the upcoming regional heads of state and government summit in Juba.

Riek Machar answers questions during a press conference in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa on July 9, 2014 (Photo AFP/Zacharias Abubeker)

SPLM-IO said its leader Riek Machar will not attend a summit of IGAD leaders to take place in Juba during the upcoming days saying he was not informed about it. The group further insisted on the need to allow the advance team and to settle some political and security issues in the peace agreement before his return to Juba.

Presidential advisor on decentralization and intergovernmental linkage, Tor Deng Mawien, on Monday told Sudan Tribune that the government had received information from the intergovernmental authority on development and other key players in the peace process that Machar will be one of the participants of the summit aimed at building confidence and commitment between the parties to the conflict and who have signed the peace deal to end more than 21 month conflict in the country.

“I have not received any new information. What I know and this was the information which the government had received from the office of the IGAD mediators and other players in the peace process was that Riek would attend the summit. He was not coming to stay. This has not changed,” said Mawien.

The presidential aide said he was getting information in the media statements suggesting Machar will not attend the summit contrary to the information which the government had received.

Meanwhile defence minister Kuol Manyang Juuk also confirmed in a separate interview that Machar will be in Juba with the leaders of IGAD countries, who will be attending the summit.

“Preparations for the summits are completed. The heads of state of the IGAD member countries will come for a one day summit here in Juba. The summit will be attended by Riek Machar and members of the former detainees”, said Juuk, a close political and military ally of President Salva Kiir.

The top defence official accused an unnamed people of discouraging the participation of the rival officials at the summit allegedly for lack of assurance of safety and security once in the country.

“I think those who may be talking of insecurity, telling them that they will be insecure are people who do not want peace,” Juuk told Eye Radio in an interview on Monday.

“They are happy to see these people remain out, but why? For what reason? We are people of South Sudan. It is not the first time for us to disagree, to fight. Even in our own tribes, we fight and reconcile by ourselves, he said.

He stressed Machar and members of former detainees who would attend the summit will be accompanied by a force ranging between 300 to 500 combat personnel.

(ST)

November 16, 2015 (JUBA) – South Sudan government announced on Monday that the meeting of Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) leaders was rescheduled due to the need for better arrangements.

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir (seated) signs a peace agreement in Juba, August 26, 2015. (Photo Reuters/Jok Solomu)

Initially the heads of state and government had to meet on Sunday 14 November but the meeting was postponed to 19 November before to announce that the summit will take place on Thursday 26 November.

“There are some logistical issues that needed to be set for the summit,” said foreign ministry spokesperson, Mawien Makol Ariik, when contacted for a comment by Sudan Tribune on Monday.

“The parliament is reopening this week and these are some of things that needed to be done first,” he added.

The National parliament is due to reopen after a month of recess next Wednesday.

On Sunday, information minister Makuei Lueth said that the meeting of IGAD heads of states and governments was delayed from to Monday 23 November.

Also, it was reported that the first delay was decided by the east African bloc to give more time to the former president of Botswana, Festus Gontebanye Mogae to settle the outstanding issues between the signatories of the peace agreement.

Last week, the first vice-president designate Riek Machar declined to take part in the gathering, saying suitable atmosphere was not yet created by Juba, alluding to Juba refusal to receive his advance team and the presidential decision to divide the country in 28 states.

(ST)

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November 15, 2015 (KHARTOUM) – The chairman of the Foreign Relations subcommittee in the Sudanese parliament Mohamed Mustafa al-Daw said that Khartoum is awaiting clarifications from Egyptian authorities about the alleged mistreatment of its nationals in Cairo recently by police and security forces.

In this Friday, Nov. 6, 2015 photo, muslim migrants attend Friday prayers outside a makeshift mosque at the migrant camp near Calais, northern France. Muslims hold Friday prayers in a half-dozen tents catering to Sunni and Shiite Arabic speakers, Iranian and Afghan speakers of Persian and Pashto, Syrian Kurds, and Sudanese in both Arabic and tribal tongues. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)

There were frequent complaints by Sudanese travelers who arrived from Cairo who claimed that they were subjected to street stops by police and even saw their money seized in the process.

The Consul General of Sudan in Cairo Khalid al-Sheikh said that they submitted a memo to the Egyptian Foreign Ministry inquiring about the recent surge of harassment of Sudanese citizens.

The memo pointed that bad treatment by police and national security has recently increased against Sudanese nationals, saying that conduct is unacceptable and inconsistent with the deep ties and agreements signed between the two nations particularly the four-freedoms agreement.

Al-Daw said in remarks on Sunday that the parliament will not hesitate to subpoena the foreign ministry if it turns out that they neglected the matter given their primary responsibility.

He stressed that the media should deal objectively with the situation and not inflate it until facts become clear, especially since Egypt is going through exceptional circumstances because of the internal situation.

The MP warned that all options are on table to preserve the dignity of Sudanese nationals in Egypt.

Sudan's foreign ministry spokesperson Ali al-Sadiq told reporters on Saturday that the Sudanese embassy in Cairo has clear directives to look after the Sudanese nationals and make sure they are being well treated.

He said they are confident that Egypt's foreign ministry would investigate the issue, stressing the strong ties between Khartoum and Cairo would enable them to overcome any misunderstanding.

In a related issue, various media outlets reported that 15 Sudanese migrants trying to cross from Egypt into Israel were shot and killed at the border early Sunday.

A senior security official in northern Sinai, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the news media, told New York Times that the Egyptian border police shot the migrants when they ignored warnings not to cross the border fence. At least eight were wounded, the official said, adding that another eight migrants had been arrested.

But another Egyptian security official said that the Sudanese migrants had been caught in the middle of a shootout between Bedouin smugglers and the Egyptian police, and that they had been killed in the crossfire. And Reuters, citing security sources, said the police had found the migrants' bodies near the border.

(ST)

By John A. Akec

All economies, large and small, experience periods of boom and bust. Like us humans, all economies get sick; and from time to time, require fixing to bring them in line with respective national economic policy objectives: namely, maintaining low inflation, sustaining economic growth, and achieving full employment. Causes of economic crisis may differ from one country to another. Each demands appropriate diagnosis and right prescription in order to recover. And we all agree that South Sudan's economy been experiencing challenges for sometimes. Notable among these challenges has been the continuous hikes in prices of consumer goods. In economists' jargon, we are experiencing serious inflation (due to rise in cost of buying dollar for imports, and aggravated by increase supply of national currency in circulation month after month). This inflation is so severe that it qualifies the description of ‘a crisis' as prices of food and durable goods have tripled or quadrupled over the last few months. It is also seen in the disappearance of fuel from the market and the sights of long queues of vehicles and boda-bodas at petrol stations in nation's capital, Juba.

The causes of this economic crisis are well understood. Briefly summarized, the drop in the global prices of oil has meant that very little revenue is accruing to the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning. War has also led to shutting down of production of oil in Unity State resulting in reduction of total oil output by 30 percent. All factors combined have created a large deficit (or shortfall) in the government public finances. The shortfall which amounts to SSP 600 million a month or SSP 7.2 billion a year is being funded through central bank's borrowing. Central bank borrowing, also known as deficit financing, is believed to be responsible for massive increase in the amount of national currency notes circulating in the economy, whereas the supply of hard currency (dollar) available for exchange remained fixed or somewhat reduced. In other words, deficit financing has resulted in “too many South Sudanese pounds chasing too few dollars.” Consequently, our national currency has fallen in value by almost 300 percent against dollar (from SSP 5.5 to a dollar in January 2015; to SSP 18.5 to a dollar by the end of October 2015). And since we are import-oriented economy, prices of imported goods have subsequently tripled. Some traders have shifted to US dollar as the preferred medium of exchange and better store of monetary value, first sign that our economy is about to dollarise.

THE BEST WAY TO DESTROY A NATION

And to be sure, instability in value of national currency is a matter that deserves an utmost attention. It is no lesser critical than deciding to go to war; or declaring a state of emergency. History has it that Vladimir Lenin, the first leader of Communist Russia, once shrewdly observed that the best weapon for destroying a nation is to destroy its currency. Later on, history tells us, Adolf Hitler, having independently come to the same conclusion as Lenin, planned to fly airplanes over England not to drop bombs, but to unload tones after tones of counterfeited notes of British currency! No one is sure if those plans ever materialized. However, its mention here doe help to drive this point home –stability of national currency is a matter of life and death.
As a nation, we face two scenarios: the first is to absolutely to do nothing but sit back and watch our currency decent into insignificance, just as we have been doing so far, and be ready to pay the ultimate price for inaction. The second scenario is to wake up and take some corrective measures in order to restore confidence in our national currency.

THE BEST CASE SCENARIO: FLOATING THE EXCHANGE RATE IRRESPECTIVE OF OUR FINANCIAL STANDING

The best case scenario is to abolish the fixed exchange rate as soon as possible, irrespective of our financial standing. It is to be recalled that an economic workshop was organized by the government in May 2015. Many economists who attended agreed that the problem stems from deficit financing; and that the best remedy is to move away from the fixed exchange rate policy to a market-determined rate. However, economists could not agree on pre-conditions for such measures nor the best timing. The result has been stagnation, and continuous decline of South Sudan in currency market. However, there are strong arguments against inaction.

For example, the pro-alignment camp argues that at the current parallel exchange rate against dollar of SSP 18.5 to dollar (as of Sunday 8 November 2015), the Ministry of Finance will fetch SSP 1.11 billion for USD 60 million, the estimated monthly oil revenue accruing to the government of South Sudan, or an estimated annual income of SSP 13.320 billion per year (on flexible exchange rate policy). That is, at the stroke of a pen, it does away with the huge deficit.
Add to it the tax revenue of SSP 1.44 billion annual tax revenue, and we have total income of SSP 14.76 billion of government annual income. That is, 4.75 billion additional funds that can be used on development and partly on increasing the salaries of workers on low income in order to reduce income disparities. This is better when compared to estimated SSP 3 billion annual government revenue at current fixed exchange rate of 2.96 to a dollar and a deficit of SSP 7 billion in the approved budget of SSP 10 billion for 2015/2016. It is important to note that these reforms can be implemented with or without foreign currency cushioning. Furthermore, reform of income tax (to include constitutional post holders) could raise additional SSP 2.4 billion per year, taking the total estimated revenue for this financial year to about SSP 17.16 billion.

Furthermore, additional measures include removing fuel subsidies. Currently, Nile Petroleum Corporation spends about USD 18 million per month on fuel or USD 216 million per year (SSP 4 billon) in real term at parallel market rate. A liter of petrol or diesel sells at SSP 6 or USD 2 at fixed exchange. In real terms and based on parallel exchange rate, it should sell at SSP 37 a liter.

Hence there is subsidy of SSP 31 per litter which works out to 83% fuel subsidies paid by Nile Pet on our behalf. Still below the black market price of SSP 60 per liter which many are ready to pay.

Hence, removing the subsidies fully (for argument's sake), the government can get back an estimated amount of SSP 3.3 billion (USD 179.3 million) a year. All in all, the government revenue can rise to SSP 20 billion without increasing the taxes. With these measures, it is possible to recalibrate and stabilize the South Sudanese pound.

THE WORST CASE SCENARIO: DOING NOTHING

This is the favoured scenario by the majority of our economists and members of legislative assembly. The argue that we do nothing until our financial standing improves (a buffer to defend the pound when demand for dollar at market price increases. This is in complete defiance of inverse relation between demand and prices. And doing nothing, fortunately, does not require lengthy explanation to understand. It means our Minister of Finance will continue to run a budget with large shortfall of SSP 7 billion a year; funded through central bank's borrowing which means pumping more currency notes into circulation every month. The South Sudan pound will continue its free fall by an average of SSP 2 per month; and by February 2016, the exchange rate of our currency against dollar will hit or exceed SSP 25 mark. Millions of low-waged individuals will be squeezed out of the market as they will no longer afford to feed their families. Salaries (even for the best paid) will come to mean nothing. Fuel prices will continue to rise. Life will be unbearable for most with the exception of few. The successful implementation of peace agreement will only bring in additional USD 30 million per month (SSP 90 million per month at fixed exchange rate of SSP 2.96 to a dollar). That is, if production in Unity State resumes by December 2015, which is unlikely. Even that addition to government revenue will not make huge difference as long as the exchange rate remains fixed at SSP 2.96 to a dollar, the deficit will fall by SSP 90 to SSP 510 million per month (SSP 6.1 billion annually); and the fall of South Sudanese pound will continue unabated.

In the final analysis, serious political and social upheavals will ensue as a result of unresolved economic crisis. And most probably by January or February in the new year could be troublesome to our stability. And if that happens, many of us will find ourselves agreeing with the economist John Maynard Keynes who expressed his frustration with the classical economists who would not advise their governments to intervene with stimulus in order to speed up economic recovery after the Great Depression which happened between 1920 and 1929.
To Keynes' dismay, the established classical economists occupying White Hall in Britain and beyond, insisted that governments in Britain, Europe, and United States do nothing but allow their economies to self-correct (in the long run). Against which John Maynard Keynes argued that the long run argument is a misleading guide to current affairs as they existed then. And that in the long run all will be dead. Keynes also lampooned classical economists' influence on political decision-makers to do nothing saying: “Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually slaves of some defunct economist[s].”

And if our defunct economists could have their way, Keynes, Lenin, and Hitler would be shaking their heads in their resting abode, amazed that someone in the enlightened twenty-first century would still choose to ignore their wise insights.

*The writer is Vice Chancellor of the University of Juba, South Sudan.

November 13, 2015 (WAU) - The health minister in Western Bahr el Ghazal state, Isaac Clerto has announced the commencement of mass polio immunisation campaign.

A medical worker vaccinates a child against polio. (AFP)

The door-to-door campaign will target 13,500 children below five.

“We as government of South Sudan have recognised that since 2009, Polio case has been reported but the coverage is still a challenge [and] that is why we are continuing with the campaign and this the third,” said Clerto.

The campaign started on 14 November and will go till 17.

“We were suppose to start a week earlier but because the delay of vaccines we shifted it to one week. Vaccines have now arrived and these include the ones for counties as immunisation starts tomorrow,” he said.

Clerto, however, urged parents to cooperate with health officials during the exercise.

“What we need is cooperation among the parents to our staff. Even though your child is sick, he or she should be vaccinated because this vaccination gives more immunity to the child,” stressed the minister.

South Sudan has been polio-free since 2009. In 2013, however, health officials declared a national emergency after positive test results were discovered and launched emergency vaccination campaigns in Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Eastern Equatoria states.

(ST)

November 13, 2015 (RUMBEK) - Authorities in South Sudan's Lakes state have cautioned against selling fuel on streets and using petrol generators in the capital, Rumbek.

Map detail of South Sudan showing Lakes state in red

The new directive was contained in an order signed by the Rumbek town clerk, Mabor Chawuop Mabor.

“[A fine of] 500SSP will be imposed on any person who violates the order and all fuel or petrol you are selling will be seized without compensation,” partly reads the order.

The director of the fire brigade, Chol Mayar Mayuen said it was extremely difficult to control outbreaks resulting from a generator that has caught fire.

“All those generators installed near public places need relocation to places that are distant from people, fuel station managers should observe public safety. Those selling petrol or fuel at roadside should stop it immediately because it is a high risk – there are no spaces for fire fighters to intervene if fire erupted because of lack of fire fighters and equipment,” stressed Chol.

He however urged all members of the fire brigade to observe their duties and engage the civil population to respect the rules of law within the state, saying “We are not part of tribal conflict in the state – our duty is to fight fire – we are civil defense forces".

The Lakes state capital currently has nine fuel stations which are fully in operation.

(ST)

With Ethiopia experiencing its worst drought in decades the United Nations is reporting deepening food insecurity and &#8220severe emaciation and unusual livestock deaths&#8221 as the Organization&#39s humanitarian wing has allocated $17 million in emergency funding to help the Government tackle climate challenges and ensure timely food relief.

November 15, 2015 (KHARTOUM) - Sudan's opposition alliance National Consensus Forces (NCF) Sunday said the security agents at Khartoum airport has detained one of its leaders upon his return from Paris where he attended opposition meeting.

Leaders and delegates of the Sudan Call forces pose in a collective picture at the end of their meeting outside Paris on November 13 2015 (ST Photo)

NCF spokesperson Abu Bakr Youssef told Sudan Tribune that National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) has detained the chairman of the Sudanese National Alliance Party (SNAP) Kamal Ismail early on Sunday morning upon his return from Paris for several hours.

He added that NISS seized Ismail's passport and forced him to sign a pledge to report to its office after a week.

Youssef noted that NISS had previously seized passports of five opposition leaders including the secretary general of the Sudanese Communist Party (SCP) Mohamed Mukhtar al-Khatib, SCP leading figures Siddiq Youssef and Tarig Abdel-Mageed, chairman of the Sudanese Congress Party (SCP) Ibrahim al-Shiekh and chairman of the Unified National Unionist Party (UNUP) Galaa al-Azhari, saying the passports are still in NISS position.

Last week, NISS banned al-Khatib, Youssef, Abdel-Mageed and al-Azahari from travelling to Paris to attend the opposition meeting.

He expected that NISS would also detain the rest of the opposition leaders upon their return from Paris, saying the move is inconsistent with the laws and the constitution as well as the national dialogue climate.

“We believe this move doesn't help the ongoing national dialogue or the [security arrangement talks] which would convene within hours”. Youssef said.

“We urge the regime to look at Paris meeting differently if it is serious about [holding] the national dialogue,” he added.

It noteworthy that the opposition “Sudan Call” forces including the NCF, National Umma Party (NUP), rebel umbrella Sudan Revolutionary Forces (SRF) and the Civil Society Initiative (CSI) held a four-day meeting outside Paris to discuss issues of regime change as well as organizational issues pertaining to the alliance.

They decided to “liquidate” the regime and establish a transitional national government either through dialogue or popular uprising.

(ST)

November 15, 2014 (KHARTOUM) - United Nation Children Fund (UNICEF) has warned against the worsening conditions of children in eastern Sudan due to malnutrition.

UNICEF Deputy Executive Director, Omar Abdi, (C) speaks in a press briefing on November 15, 2015 (Photo UNICEF)

UNICEF deputy executive director Omar Abdi, expressed fear over the challenges facing the work of UNICEF in Sudan, particularly with regard to accessing all children.

He said that some areas are still suffering from children malnutrition despite the progress made in reducing the death rates of children below five years old from 83% to 68% together with increasing the number of children enrolled in schools and those who have access to water.

Abdi, who spoke at a press conference at the conclusion of his visit to Sudan Sunday, pointed that the budget allotted for Sudan amounts to $130 million, saying it only covers 60% of the actual needs.

He urged the partners to continue their support for UNICEF programs in Sudan, adding he discussed the work of UNICEF in Sudan with several officials including the First Vice-President Bakri Hassan Salih.

Abdi pointed the Sudanese government stressed commitment to cooperate with UNICEF to promote children's welfare, saying he inspected the security situation and several IDP's camps in North Darfur state.

For his part, UNICEF resident representative in Sudan, Geert Cappelaere said the malnutrition in eastern Sudan is worse than in Darfur, noting that UNICEF would open an office in eastern Sudan to strengthen its presence there.

“We would launch a call to provide a budget to address malnutrition issue particularly as the budget allotted to Sudan is limited,” he said

He said that 7% of the South Sudanese refugees in Sudan are children, pointing to high mortality rate among them due to malnutrition and lack of vaccination.

The director of the international cooperation department at Sudan's foreign ministry Sirag al-Din Hamid , for his part, asked for UNICEF help to lift the unilateral economic sanctions imposed on Sudan in order to allow the implementation of programs pertaining to children and education.

He described the visit of UNICEF deputy executive director to Sudan as important, saying that Khartoum attaches great hopes to the visit which reflects the level of cooperation between UNICEF and Sudan.

(ST)