Diplomacy & Crisis News

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Horreur Le 17 mars 2023, au lendemain de manifestations spontanées contre l'usage de l'article 49-3, LeFigaro.fr prend une sérieuse option sur l'attribution du prochain prix Pulitzer avec ce reportage : « Une chaussée nettoyée dans le 2e arrondissement de Paris, des commerçants sous le choc. Dans la (...) / France, Médias, Presse, Mouvement de contestation, Retraites - 2023/04

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How Trump’s unpredictability could hurt his foreign policy.

Outside actors must put the country’s needs above their narrow interests.

Topic: Security Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Americas Tags: F-16 Fighting Falcon, F-16XL, Military, Security, and U.S. Air Force The Little-Known F-16XL Fighter Was Stacked to the Brim with Weapons January 24, 2025 By: Harrison Kass Share

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Only two F-16XLs were ever made. They entered the Air Force’s Enhanced Tactical Fighter competition to select a replacement for the F-111 Aardvark.

Aviation enthusiasts tend to recognize the F-16 Fighting Falcon on sight. The jet cuts a distinctive figure with compact proportions, a bubble-canopy, and one engine—with the air intake located dead center and horizontal stabilizers forming a symmetrical angle. The airframe’s ubiquity helps, too, with over 4,600 F-16s produced since the 1970s and over 2,600 still in service today (by comparison only 187 F-22 Raptors were produced).

But there was one F-16 variant, a little-known experiment, that few would recognize: the F-16XL.

Introducing the F-16XL

Only two F-16XLs were ever made. In 1981, the fighter entered the Air Force’s Enhanced Tactical Fighter (ETF) competition to select a replacement for the F-111 Aardvark. The F-16XL lost the bid, which is why you’ve probably never heard of the thing (the F-15 Eagle, which you probably have heard of, ultimately won the ETF competition, joined the U.S. Air Force, and has since been mass-produced).

The F-16XL looks similar to the standard F-16, like some sort of cousin, perhaps, with designers using the standard model as a baseline for the XL-variant. The two airframes are different, of course, most notably in regard to wing shape; the F-16XL features a delta design. The most expert observers might catch another subtle difference between the two F-16s; the F-16XL was 56 inches longer—thanks to two sections added to the joints of the main fuselage sub-assemblies. Also, the F-16XL’s tail was angled 3.16 degrees upward and the ventral fins were removed.

Why the modifications?

The original F-16 was relatively new and had performed admirably, so it may seem odd that the airframe was modified so drastically. But the delta wing design improved the lift-to-drag ratio during supersonic flight by 25 percent relative to the standard F-16. Test pilots reported that the F-16XL handled quite well at both low and high speeds.

Also, the larger, longer F-16XL was able to carry more fuel and more weapons. The enlarged wing allowed for the new F-16 to store 65 percent more fuel, which resulted in a 50 percent further range. And the massive delta-wing allowed for more external hardpoints and hence larger weapons payloads. The result was a jet that could deploy more weapons than its predecessors and could go further to deploy said weapons. And that marks a significant practical improvement over the F-16.

For research

The F-16XL was originally a part of the General Dynamics experimental program known as SCAMP, or Supersonic Cruise and Maneuver Prototype. SCAMP tested a variety of wing types to find their desired characteristics. Ultimately, the delta-wing design was selected thanks to the aforementioned lift-to-drag ratio.

When the Air Force selected the F-15 as winner of the ETF competition, General Dynamics donated the two existing F-16XLs to NASA, which put the delta-winged jets to good use; the F-16XLs were flown, for research purposes, until 2009—nearly thirty years after first flying.

After being retired, the F-16XLs were transferred to Edwards Air Force Base, where they were stored, and where they have mostly faded into the annals of aviation mythology.

About the Author: Harrison Kass

Harrison Kass is a senior defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.

Image: Shutterstock.

The post The Little-Known F-16XL Fighter Was Stacked to the Brim with Weapons appeared first on The National Interest.

Topic: Security Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Middle East Tags: F-15I Ra’am, Israel, Israeli Air Force, Military, and Security Israel Set to Receive 25 F-15I Fighters by 2031 January 24, 2025 By: Maya Carlin Share

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Israel’s initial procurement of the F-15I fighter occurred in the late 1990s, following lessons learned from the Gulf War.

With the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire in place, Iran’s regional proxy groups are allegedly following suit with the aim to deescalate. The Yemen-based Houthi rebels signaled this week that they will direct future attacks to only Israeli-affiliated vessels in the Red Sea. For over two years, the Iranian-backed militant group has increased its barrages in this critical waterway, nearly halving all commercial traffic through this region. The Houthis’ ability to disrupt the global economy on such a large scale is perhaps the group’s greatest asset. However, if the Yemen-based group continues to target Israeli ships, retaliatory strikes will undoubtedly follow. Considering the strength and formidability of the Israeli Air Force (IAF), Houthi military sites and other assets in Yemen will make relatively easy targets. In fact, Israel’s aerial might will only improve as the Jewish state recently penned a whopping $5 billion deal to acquire an additional twenty-five F-15 fighters beginning in 2031.

The deal, signed by Israel’s Defense Ministry, includes twenty-five Boeing F-15IA fighter jets with options for an additional twenty-five. As Israel’s specialized variant of the advanced F-15EX, these “Ra’am” fighters are often overshadowed by the fifth-generation F-35I Adir. Although the F-15I does not possess the F-35’s stealth, the platform offers greater range which makes it essential for long-range strikes and air superiority missions. “Boeing takes pride in its longstanding partnership with Israel, a relationship that dates back to our nation’s establishment,” president of Boeing Israel maj. gen. (ret.) Ido Nehushtan noted. “The company will continue working with the U.S. and Israeli governments to deliver the advanced F-15IA aircraft through standard military procurement channels.”

Israel’s initial procurement of the F-15I fighter occurred in the late 1990s, following lessons learned from the Gulf War. Israel’s ability to carry out long-range strike operations became apparent at this time, as many of the SCUD ballistic missiles that were launched by Iraq toward Israel were not intercepted. The Ra’am, equipped with specially modified features, was designed to suit the unique security needs of Israel. Specifically, the IAF version possesses more advanced weapons, avionics, communication capabilities, and electronic warfare systems than the original Eagle which was crafted to function as a pure air-to-air fighter.

What makes the F-15I special?

Since the F-15I is directly linked to the Strike Eagle, the Ra’am platform fighters appear nearly identical to their American counterparts. Similarly, the two crew members sit in tandem, and the twin-engine arrangement is side-by-side. Additionally, the wing mainplanes have swept-lines along their leading edges and vertical planes are used for ground running. The F-15I’s two Pratt & Whitney F100-PW series afterburning turbofan engines enable the jet to fly at speeds greater than Mach 2.

Based on these specs and capabilities and the Ra’am’s stellar service history within the IAF, Israel’s desire to procure additional fighters makes sense. In October, the IAF launched airstrikes in Iran targeting military assets in retaliation for the barrage of ballistic missiles fired upon Israel previously. Two months later, the IAF struck Houthi sites in Yemen in Sanaa and Hodeida. As the Houthis continue to launch frequent barrages targeting Israel, the IAF’s F-15 fleet will certainly be put to good use.

About the Author: Maya Carlin

Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin. Carlin has over 1,000 articles published over the last several years on various defense issues.

The post Israel Set to Receive 25 F-15I Fighters by 2031 appeared first on The National Interest.

Topic: Security Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Middle East Tags: Gulf Of Aden, Houthis, Iran, Red Sea, Security, and Yemen A New Airstrip Has Been Spotted on a Yemeni Island January 23, 2025 By: Harrison Kass Share

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The airstrip is positioned on Abd al-Kuri Island which sits on a key waterway in the Gulf of Aden.

Images depicting a nearly completed airstrip on a remote island in Yemen have analysts worried. While the runway is likely built by the United Arab Emirates, the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels are active in the country and could exploit the new construction. As detailed by The Associated Press, the airstrip is positioned on Abd al-Kuri Island which sits on a key waterway. Due to its location, the airstrip could be used as a landing zone for military operations in the waterway or for commercial shipping purposes. Since the Houthis have ramped up their attacks targeting international vessels in the Red Sea, commercial and energy shipments in the region have halved. Although Abd al-Kuri sits within Houthi drone and missile range, the island’s distance from the mainland is large enough that the rebel group won’t be able to take control of it.

What we know about the airstrip

Israel and Hamas have recently entered a ceasefire in a war that has raged on since the Gaza-based terror group launched its October 7, 2023, massacre. Although fighting has quieted down in the enclave, the Houthis may not adhere to a cessation in their frequent barrages targeting vessels in the Red Sea. The rebel group typically carried out missile, rocket, and unmanned aerial vehicle attacks against ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. This strait represents a critical maritime chokepoint that links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. While the group has claimed it only targets vessels affiliated with Israel and the United States due to those countries’ war against Hamas in Gaza, they have been indiscriminate in the ships they strike.

An overview of Iran’s activity in the Red Sea

Tehran’s interest in Yemen dates back several decades, however, the regime’s involvement in the country really took hold in the mid-2000s. As Yemen became embroiled in domestic turmoil at this time, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps exploited the crisis to grow its influence. Similar to how Iran has entrenched itself in Lebanon and Gaza via proxy groups, the regime fully supports the Houthi rebels. In fact, this Yemen-based group receives training, funds and support directly from Tehran.

Since Tehran exploited the power vacuum in Yemen caused by the civil war, its contributions to these Yemen-based militants grew steadily to include the transfer of weapons. As detailed by War on the Rocks, “They assemble these parts into working weapons with technical assistance from Hezbollah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps advisers. This approach has allowed the Houthis to now field short and long-range drones and an increasingly diversified fleet of missiles capable of striking deep inside Saudi Arabia.”

The Red Sea functions as an important smuggling route for Iran and the Houthis, making the construction of a new airstrip on the island even more noteworthy. The U.S. military has taken action to prevent these types of weapons transfers in the past. Last year, U.S. Navy SEALs took part in a seizure off the coast of Abd al-Kuri involving a traditional dhow vessel involved in illegal smuggling operations.

About the Author: Maya Carlin

Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin. Carlin has over 1,000 articles published over the last several years on various defense issues.

Image: David G40 / Shutterstock.com

The post A New Airstrip Has Been Spotted on a Yemeni Island appeared first on The National Interest.

Topic: Security Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Americas Tags: Donald Trump, National Guard, Security, Southern Border, and U.S. Military Trump Sends U.S. Military Troops to Reinforce Southern Border January 23, 2025 By: Harrison Kass Share

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The troops are likely to provide a simple influx of manpower in an effort that has suffered to keep pace with a massive influx of migrants.

Active-duty U.S. troops are being sent to the U.S. border with Mexico, a move consistent with President Donald Trump’s promises to beef up the U.S. military presence along the southern border. The newly mobilized troops will join the 2,200 active-duty troops and 4,500 National Guardsmen who are already stationed along the southern border.

Campaign Promises

When Trump first entered the political fray, declaring his candidacy for the presidency in 2015, ahead of the 2016 election, he did so with an emphasis on immigration-related grievances. The grievances resonated and Trump was elected. So, unsurprisingly, Trump leaned into similar immigration-related grievances and vowed to crack down on illegal immigration if elected. Now, having been reelected, in part, to uphold stricter immigration policies, Trump is making immediate moves.

The deployment is understood to just be the first wave. “Even more active duty troops are expected to be deployed to the border in the coming weeks and months,” CNN reported, “with the first wave laying the groundwork for a larger military footprint.”

Whether the troops will be armed remains unclear. But what is clear is that the troops do not have the authority to assist in law enforcement efforts, i.e., make arrests or seize drugs; the troops cannot engage with the migrants for any other purpose than transportation. The reason: an old law known as “posse comitatus,” which restricts U.S. troops from providing domestic law enforcement without authorization. So, without the authorization, what exactly will the troops be doing?

Symbolic or Functional?

The troops currently on the southern border are based out of El Paso, Texas, and support the U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s work “performing mostly logistical and bureaucratic tasks like data entry, detection and monitoring, and vehicle maintenance.” Expect the fresh batch of troops to perform in a very similar capacity.

“They will be helping to maintain operational readiness for Border Patrol, assisting in command-and-control centers, and providing more intelligence specialists to assess threats and migrant flows,” CNN reported. “The troops are also expected to augment air assets and help with air operations.”

Generally, the troops are likely to provide a simple influx of manpower in an effort that has suffered to keep pace with a massive influx of migrants. The boost in manpower along the southern border could free up Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers, who have been bogged down in operations along the border, to shift their efforts toward making arrests of undocumented immigrants already inside the country.

Back to Basics

The deployment of U.S. troops within the domestic United States is unusual. But the primary function of the military is to protect territorial integrity and security interests more broadly. Defending a border is, traditionally, an inherent part of military application. However, the United States enjoys such providential geography—including weak hemispheric neighbors, plus sprawling oceans on both the western and eastern borders—that U.S. territorial integrity is taken for granted, seemingly left on autopilot. The result is a military force that has the bandwidth to be used overseas, on less existential matters. So, while the deployment of U.S. troops to the southern border may seem unorthodox, it is very much a return to the basic principles of military application.

About the Author: Harrison Kass 

Harrison Kass is a senior defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken. 

Image: Christopher G. Kerr / Shutterstock.com

The post Trump Sends U.S. Military Troops to Reinforce Southern Border appeared first on The National Interest.

Topic: Security Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Europe Tags: Berlin Wall, Cold War, Security, Soviet Union, and U.S. Military LTC Arthur D. Nicholson was America’s Final Cold War Casualty January 23, 2025 By: Christian D. Orr Share

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U.S. Army investigators determined that Nicholson’s death was “officially condoned, if not directly ordered” by the Soviet leadership.

The Cold War never turned into a “hot war,” i.e., full-blown World War III between the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact on one side and the United States and its NATO allies on the other. But that doesn’t mean that the two sides didn’t kill their fair share of each other’s personnel during that timeframe.

For example, during the Korean War, it was an open secret that Soviet fighter pilots were flying missions under the guise of North Korean fighter pilots, in the process killing and being killed by their American jet jock adversaries. Meanwhile, in March 1953, two Soviet MiG-15s shot down an unarmed British Avro 694 Lincoln airplane that strayed into East German airspace whilst on a routine training mission in March 1953, killing all seven Royal Air Force crewmen—with two of those crewmen strafed in cold blood as they were parachuting to safety.

And thirty-two years after the Avro Lincoln shootdown, there was the story of U.S. Army lieutenant colonel Arthur D. Nicholson, murdered by a Soviet sentry in East Germany. Nicholson is considered to be America’s last Cold War casualty.

Profile of the Victim: LTC Arthur D. Nicholson Jr., United States Army

Arthur Donald “Nick” Nicholson, Jr. was born on June 7, 1947, in Mount Vernon, Washington, the son of a career Navy officer. A 1965 graduate of Joel Barlow High School in Redding, Connecticut, Nick earned a bachelor’s degree from Transylvania University of Lexington, Kentucky, in 1969 before joining the U.S. Army in 1970.

He was commissioned as a military intelligence officer (Military Occupation Specialist code 35A). Fast-forward ten years, and then-Captain Nicholson became a Foreign Area Officer, and the law of unintended consequences would set him up for his eventual tragic fate. In 1980, he earned a master’s degree in Soviet and East European studies from the Naval Postgraduate School and also attended a two-year course in the Russian language at the Defense Language Institute. During this same two-year span, Nick attended the U.S. Army’s Russian Institute in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.

As a reward for these impressive academic achievements, Nicholson was assigned to the U.S. Military Liaison Mission (USMLM) to the commander-in-chief of the Group of Soviet Forces Germany, and was promoted to major in 1983.

The Incident

The tragedy unfolded on March 24, 1985 (which means that this year will be the fortieth anniversary of the incident). As a member of USMLM, Nicholson was one of fourteen American officers assigned to East Germany along with support staff as part of a 1947 agreement that basically licensed the two sides to spy on each other up to a point; all parties of the occupation were allowed to maintain communications and exchange intelligence in the occupied zones of East and West Germany, thus providing all sides with a convenient venue for keeping tabs on each other. The Soviets indeed had their own liaison mission which operated on the same principles inside the American, British, and French sectors.

Accordingly, Nick and his driver, SSG Jessie Schatz, were unarmed, in uniform, and in a jeep clearly marked with USMLM plates when they conducted a routine patrol at an area in Ludwigslust, East Germany, following a convoy of Soviet tanks returning from target practice. However, on this fateful day, as Ruth Quinn wrote back in March 2013 on the official U.S. Army info page:

“[S]omething went terribly wrong … At some point, the two Americans left the convoy and headed for a tank shed off the main road. Seeing no guards, they drove to within 200 yards of the shed. Major Nicholson left the vehicle to take some photos, leaving SSG Schatz with the vehicle to provide security. After a few minutes, Nicholson got back in and they drove closer, this time to within 10 yards. With the driver watching, he got back out and approached the shed to look in a window. That was when Schatz noticed a young Soviet sentry emerging from the woods. Nicholson was turning to get back in his vehicle when the first shot rang out, narrowly missing his driver’s head. The Soviet sentry, a young sergeant named Aleksandr Ryabtsev, aimed again and fired two more shots … One of them hit the major and dropped him. Rising to an elbow, he shouted: “Jessie, I’ve been shot!” Then he collapsed. Schatz reached for his first aid kit, showing the Red Cross emblem to the sentry, and attempted to assist his teammate. The sentry kept the AK-47 trained on Schatz, however, trapping him in the vehicle for over an hour. By the time anyone bothered to check for a pulse, Major Nicholson didn’t have one.”

Aftermath

To add insult to injury, the Soviets refused to accept any responsibility, repeatedly changing their story and contradicting themselves. U.S. Army investigators determined that Nick’s death was “officially condoned, if not directly ordered” by the Soviet leadership. Ryabkov, as far as I have been able to ascertain, was never held accountable by his chain of command.

The incident took place barely two weeks after Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev became the Soviet leader, thus presenting Tovarish (“comrade”) Gorbachev with his first major crisis, one that threatened to derail his ambitions for closer ties with the West. U.S. officials were understandably outraged, with then-Vice President George H.W. Bush stating “This sort of brutal international behavior jeopardizes directly the improvements in relations.”

Nick’s body was eventually released, and he was laid to rest with full military honors in Section 7A Site 171 of Arlington National Cemetery, buried near his father, Arthur Donald Nicholson Sr. (CDR, USN, ret.), with all thirteen of his USMLM team members present at his funeral. Major Arthur D. Nicholson was posthumously awarded the Legion of Merit, the Purple Heart, and—at the behest of then-President Ronald Reagan—promoted to LTC. For good measure, LTC Nicholson was inducted into the MI Hall of Fame in June 1991.

Meanwhile, in 1988, the Soviet government finally officially expressed “regret” over Nicholson’s death.

About the Author: Christian D. Orr

Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor for National Security Journal (NSJ). He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He has also been published in The Daily Torch, The Journal of Intelligence and Cyber Security, and Simple Flying. Last but not least, he is a Companion of the Order of the Naval Order of the United States (NOUS). If you’d like to pick his brain further, you can ofttimes find him at the Old Virginia Tobacco Company (OVTC) lounge in Manassas, Virginia, partaking of fine stogies and good quality human camaraderie.

Image: Shutterstock.

The post LTC Arthur D. Nicholson was America’s Final Cold War Casualty appeared first on The National Interest.