The 2026 US–Israel–Iran war has produced what the International Energy Agency describes as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Brent crude rose from around $70 at the end of February to a peak of about $140 in early April before settling around $100 as of early June 2026. In a new Brief Andy Sumner and Stephan Klingebiel argue that the significance of the oil shock lies not only in the price increase itself but in its timing.