Feed aggregator

In the run up the UK elections FleishmanHillard reached out to its network of clients across the EU to ask them what they thought of the possibility of a ‘Brexit’ . The feedback was overwhelming in its clarity – business is concerned that a Brexit would not just hurt Britain, it would hurt Europe. Below are some key quotes with which to contextualise business, Britain and Brexit.

“We are concerned about the uncertainty caused by the Referendum”

The UK is important to many of our clients, and not just as a market. One client remarked that the UK was the home of an R&D centre, for which the free movement offered by the EU was vital. The benefits of the UK’s position as an English-speaking country which enjoys a generally positive business environment make it a key investment point and ‘staging ground’ for many international businesses. Businesses from outside the EU invest in the UK disproportionately to its share of Europe’s economy: in 2013 the UK commanded 20% of FDI, while producing about 15% of GDP. 

It’s clear that businesses are happy to invest in the UK. What is also clear is that businesses are nervous about a Brexit; a recent survey of business leaders highlighted that it is even more concerning than a ‘Grexit’ (Greece’s possible departure from the Eurozone). It seems likely – and prudent – that businesses will be more hesitant about investing, when the stakes of the upcoming referendum are so high. It is for this reason that the new UK government seems to be considering a referendum in advance of its already ambitious 2017 deadline. Minimising the period of uncertainty is doubtless a step in the right direction, but it seems businesses would rather not see the issue come to a head, only 11% of respondents to our survey favoured having a referendum at all.

“Regulation and market barriers as a consequence of a Brexit would substantially harm our business”

There are those who fear that regulation and market barriers will negatively impact their business. The altered future relationship between the UK and the EU could mean that where once the “free movement for our supply chain across borders and for our workers is valuable” the reinstatement of barriers, wholly or partial could serve to make trading with the UK more difficult. When we asked our clients whether they think a Brexit would see them reducing the work they do in the UK, they were split quite evenly. Britain is the EU’s second biggest economy, and businesses are unlikely to stop trading with it, regardless of its membership status. What will happen though, as cited by our clients, is that the UK will no longer be an agenda setter, with limited ability to steer the course of the EU’s economy.  However, while the recognised advantages of the EU Single Market would prove a difficult obstacle if revoked, one client envisaged that the “most important bottom line element for our UK business is the UK business environment, notably tax levels and this is independent from the work of the EU.” This correctly identifies one of the most popular aspects of investing in the UK, and while the tax levels would evidently not be affected by a Brexit of any kind, the business environment rests on tender hooks as uncertainty over the future prevails.

“Brexit would simply be another factor to the broad view that Europe is less and less attractive for investments”

One highly pessimistic view depicts a Brexit as the final straw in a long history of decisions which contribute to an uncompetitive and stagnant investment environment – something the European Commission seems well aware of, considering the grand efforts of the Juncker Plan (an investment fund for Europe championed by Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker) to stimulate growth and investment in the EU. Our clients certainly think that this would be a step backwards for the EU as a whole, with an overwhelming majority agreeing that the EU’s economy would suffer in the case of a Brexit. Perhaps the view of many in the US when it comes to the EU was summed up by US Presidential long-shot Bobby Jindal when he said they must avoid turning “the American Dream into the European Nightmare.

“It would be a glorious mistake”

At present, nobody knows what the terms of a Brexit would be, or even what is being requested in the “renegotiation” period leading up to a popular vote. There are a number of overhanging issues, for example Directives which are transposed into national law would still apply if the UK were to leave the EU, agreements which have been signed with countries the world over on trade and international relations will have to be renegotiated. That is not to say that the UK’s relationship with the EU must stay the same, businesses are certainly open to the possibility of negotiation, but Brexit is overwhelmingly considered a bad idea. Therefore the above short comment which neatly summarised what a lot of our respondents were conveying may become true, however it remains to be seen how a Brexit might work, what basis a future relationship with the EU would be served on and the state of the UK post-EU.

 

 Rob Anger,  Martin Bresson,  Joachim Wilcke, Cillian Totterdell and Anne Murray 

 

 

Erről tegnap döntött kormány. Eszerint a nyár végéig felfüggesztették minden feldolgozatlan faáru, azaz a rönkfa, a tűzifa és a fűrészáru külföldi értékesítését. Az intézkedést az elmúlt hetekben az erdészeti törvény kapcsán zajló viták miatt hozták meg. Tegnap Victor Ponta azt nyilatkozta, hogy a faexport betiltását törvénybe kellene foglalni, mert az kevésbé támadható. A környezetvédők szerint Romániában évente 27 millió köbméter fát termelnek ki, ennek egyharmadát illegálisan. Ami a legálisan kitermelt fát illeti, a mintegy 19 millió köbméter fa egy részét fűtésre használják, a többit feldolgozzák.

Inquiètes des effets de la politique de meilleure législation de la Commission européenne, plus de 50 organisations de la société civile ont lancé un réseau de surveillance des actions de Bruxelles dans les domaines des droits des citoyens.

Andrus Ansip, vice-président de la Commission chargé du marché unique numérique, a rejeté les rumeurs selon lesquelles l'exécutif européen prévoit de contourner les technologies de cryptage qui garantissent la sécurité des communications sur Internet. 

Ioanna Lachana, OSCE Mission to Skopje Mirvete Islam, OSCE Mission to Skopje Mihajlo Lahtov, OSCE Mission to Skopje

Police officers from Common Contact Centres will meet at border crossing point with Bulgaria, Deve Bair, on 21 May 2015 to share experiences and enhance capacity on fighting organized crime. 

The workshop is supported by the OSCE Mission to Skopje and aims at becoming a co-ordination tool to provide immediate updated information on crime trend at the border areas, as well as to analyse and share best practice and modus operandi from other countries, including European Union Member States.

In 2013, the Mission supported the establishment of the Common Contact Centre in Tabanovce, at the crossing point with Serbia, to strengthen and sustain the existing cross-border co-operation in order to exchange analytical and operational information to fight transnational organized crime.

In 2014, OSCE Mission to Skopje provided technical equipment as well as ad-hoc training for 16 Police officers, currently employed at the Centre established at Blace border crossing point. 

Related Stories

• OSCE Mission to Skopje signs Memorandum of Understanding with Gjorche Petrov municipality
• OSCE Mission to Skopje facilitates training in Ankara on techniques for investigating organized crime
• OSCE Mission to Skopje organizes advanced training on new Law on Criminal Procedure

Le minist�re fran�ais de la D�fense a affirm� mercredi dans un communiqu� avoir neutralis� deux importantes figures du jihadisme dans le nord du Mali : Abdelkrim al-Targui et Ibrahim Ag Inawalen. Une attaque a vis� le m�me jour la Minusma pour la premi�re fois � Bamako.

A Boldogasszony zarándokvonat május 21-én, csütörtök reggel negyedik alkalommal indult el Erdélybe. A Nyugati pályaudvarról kiinduló 15 kocsiból álló zarándokvonatot Beer Miklós megyéspüspök áldotta meg. A vonat szerelvényein mintegy nyolcszáz zarándok, köztük felvidéki magyar hívők utaznak a csíksomlyói búcsúba.

CDC
Raum der Freiheit, der Sicherheit und des Rechts
Die durch ein rechtswidriges Kartell Geschädigten können Ersatz ihrer Schäden vor dem Gericht des Ortes verlangen, an dem einer der an der Zuwiderhandlung Beteiligten seinen Sitz hat

CDC
Espace de liberté, sécurité et justice
Les victimes d’une entente illicite peuvent demander réparation de leurs dommages devant le tribunal du domicile de l’un des participants à l’infraction

CDC
A szabadságon, a biztonságon és a jog érvényesülésén alapuló térség
Victims of an unlawful cartel may claim compensation for their loss before the courts where one of the participants in the infringement is domiciled

CDC
Area of Freedom, Security and Justice
Victims of an unlawful cartel may claim compensation for their loss before the courts where one of the participants in the infringement is domiciled

Candidate à l'adhésion à l'UE, la Serbie est toujours déterminée à maintenir des liens étroits avec la Russie, a affirmé le ministre russe des Affaires étrangères, Sergei Lavrov, lors d'une visite à Belgrade. Un article d’EurActiv Serbie.

On Tuesday I went to one of my alma maters, LSE’s European Institute, to listen to a panel on Britain’s EU policy. As well as storifying it, I’ve also been thinking about the discussion and particularly three of the things mentioned by Simon Hix, one of the panellists.

“Never underestimate the EU’s ability to find a way to muddle through”

As has been discussed on this blog before, crisis is in many ways the dominant mode of the EU and its predecessors: there’s always something that’s a problem and which requires urgent (and improvised) action. If we can accept that, then the British situation is merely another in a long line stretching from the EDC and the Empty Chair crisis, and there will be a way to sort something out.

In this context, that might mean agreements for the UK that are not embodied in treaty reform per se, but instead in some novel form, such as declarations or intergovermental accords, or the like. As was pointed out at the event, some of the key British objectives might be secured through amending directives, a much more manageable (if still tricky) process than opening a new IGC.

Of course, the danger here is that if too many people come to believe that ‘a way will be found’, then that potentially increases the risk that it doesn’t happen, because everyone assumes someone else is doing it (indeed, that’s what I’m doing here too: I’m not offering any creative solutions): it’s a bit of a ‘tragedy of the commons’ situation, only partly mitigated by the presence of one party who have a strong interest in finding a deal: the British. Now that he is locked on this path, Cameron will not want to turn up empty-handed from any renegotiation, if only for his personal reputation and for getting through the next five years with his backbench, which gives him a good reason to find solutions.

“Never underestimate British arrogance”

However, there’s a second problem. As Hix notes, the dominant way that Brits talk about themselves is a great power (think Empire, sun never setting, UNSC permanent chair, beacon of all that is good, etc.): there’s not a great deal of humility going around, certainly not with this government. The German debate of tying oneself into a European system to protect oneself and others simply wouldn’t happen in the UK. And why should it, you ask?

Exactly.

Naturally, such a view is not universal – it’s one of the reasons that recent Tory governments have been rather suspicious of the Foreign Office – but they are deeply resonant. And in the context of a renegotiation, a view that ‘they need us more than we need them’ is likely to make matters more difficult to resolve. Yes, the UK is a big market for other EU member states, but it’s not as big as the EU market is to the UK: miscalculations of strength/influence raise the risk of an impasse.

And it’s not just the negotiators: the British public will have to be convinced that a meaningful and ‘successful’ deal has been struck by Cameron, if he is to benefit from that stage of the process. If we are going for novel, non-treaty based changes (as above) then that becomes easier to challenge.

“The renegotiation deal doesn’t actually matter at all: it’ll all come down to calculations of the benefit of membership”

In Hix’s view, this might not really matter in any case, because hardly anyone will be too bothered about any ‘deal’: they’ll follow broader cues and perceptions about the value of the system. In this, it’ll be 1975 again, where Wilson’s ‘renegotiation’ really didn’t come into matters at all.

I’ve got some sympathy for this view, since it’s clear that most people don’t have a strong (in the sense of being deeply held) view on the EU, but rather pile it into a wider understanding of their situation: limiting migrant worker benefits by a couple of extra years is neither here nor there.

What does become more important is the bigger picture of the EU’s situation: all the panellists agreed that if the Greek situation worsens, then that will badly damage the ‘yes’ campaign: why shackle yourself to a corpse, in the colourful metaphor of some sceptics. That a resolution in this looks to be no closer than before doesn’t bode well.

As this referendum campaign starts to gather pace, not least with next week’s unveiling of a referendum bill in the Queen’s speech, we are likely to see more of these dynamics. Enjoy the ride.

The post The Brexit referendum: some underlying dynamics appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

L'organisation �tat islamique (EI) s'est empar�e enti�rement jeudi de la ville antique de Palmyre, dans le d�sert syrien. Selon l'Observatoire syrien des droits de l'homme, le groupe extr�miste contr�le d�sormais la moiti� du territoire du pays.

Sanctions and the currency rate of the dollar to the ruble forced changes in the Russian space program.

EDA Deputy Chief Executive Rini Goos travelled to Czech Republic this week for a series of meetings with Central and Eastern European defence industry representatives on the margins of the IDET defence show in Brno. There he also chaired a workshop on the balanced European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB).

On the opening day of the IDET show, Rini Goos delivered a speech at the “Security Trends” conference, highlighting the EDA’s role of strengthening the European defence industry. “At EDA, we fully recognize the diversity of the defence industry in Europe”, he stressed during his speech. “Diversity is an asset we need to exploit and this is why we are keen to insist on the notion of a balanced EDTIB”.

During his visit to Czech Republic, Rini Goos also had a series of bilateral meetings with defence industry representatives of Central and Eastern European (CEE) Member States such as Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.

On 20 May, the EDA Deputy Chief Executive chaired an EDA-organised workshop dedicated to the Balanced EDTIB. “Europe can no longer afford to ignore the contribution of Central and Eastern European Member States’ defence industries to the European defence industry as a whole”, Rini Goos insisted during the event. “The EDA has just launched a six-month study whose goal is precisely to study the capabilities of the CEE countries and to identify ways to increase capacity building between them”, he added. Two similar workshops were previously held in Brussels in October 2014 and March 2015.

More information

• EDA Chief Executive visits Czech Republic
• IDET Defence Show in Brno

Source : © European Union, 2015 - EP

Tavaly 18 százalékkal, 29 milliárd euróra csökkent Németország oroszországi exportja - közölte csütörtökön a német szövetségi statisztikai hivatal, a Destatis. Ugyanezen idő alatt a német import Oroszországból 7 százalékkal, 38 milliárd euróra csökkent. Mindez éles kontrasztban áll a két ország közötti kereskedelmi forgalom korábbi alakulásával.