Autocratisation has become a defining global trend, replacing decades of democratisation and forcing democracy promoters to rethink their approaches. Democracy promoters must adapt to several challenges, including autocratisation in target countries, the rise of powerful autocratic competitors in the global arena, and challenges to democracy in some of the very countries promoting it. Moreover, the crisis in development aid fuelled by the withdrawal of funding by the United States (US) and other countries, and their prioritisation of security, pose further structural challenges. This Policy Brief examines the effects of the global trend of autocratisation on international democracy promotion, summarising findings from a collaborative research project (Grimm et al., 2025).
The findings show that democracy promoters respond to these shifts in four ways: 1) choosing to “carry on and observe” by continuing existing programmes and maintaining cooperation rather than risking confrontation; 2) reinforcing rhetorical and diplomatic efforts for democracy, to signal continued commitment; 3) selectively adapting policies and strategies, with renewed focus on civil society, education and targeted funding, yet rarely making substantive policy changes; 4) disengaging by shifting cooperation toward less politicised fields or withdrawing entirely. So far, however, we lack evidence on the effectiveness of these responses to counter autocratisation.
Given the new challenges to democracy promotion arising from the changed international context, democracy promoters should consider taking the following actions:
Ramping up efforts to counter the rise of autocratic powers: Democracy promoters should proactively deepen their pro-democracy cooperation, reaffirm democratic alliances and maintain a clear normative profile. They should invest in long-term partnerships with governments and civil societies committed to democratic reform.
Revitalising the norm of democracy: Democracy promoters must make a case for why democracy matters, highlighting that it delivers rights and freedoms, as well as stability, prosperity, and peace – at least as effectively as autocratic regimes. Emphasising its tangible benefits can help restore faith in its long-term value, and counter the appeal of autocratic alternatives.
Coordinating strategies and combining strengths: Joint frameworks for action among democracy promoters are needed that allow for the simultaneous use of different instruments, e.g. political dialogue, development cooperation, human rights advocacy and economic incentives. Combining direct and indirect democracy promotion increases adaptability.
Adapting democracy promotion to the context: In contexts where democracy is being eroded, prioritise the defence of current democratic institutions, actors and practices rather than pushing for rapid reforms. Strengthen local actors who uphold democratic values, protect them against repression and maintain spaces for civic participation.
Restoring credibility: Democracy-promoting states and organisations should openly discuss challenges to democracy at home in order to rebuild trust, strengthen legitimacy and facilitate collaboration in defence of democracy. Reinforcing own democratic institutions and upholding the rule of law contributes to restoring the credibility of democracy promoters.
Autocratisation has become a defining global trend, replacing decades of democratisation and forcing democracy promoters to rethink their approaches. Democracy promoters must adapt to several challenges, including autocratisation in target countries, the rise of powerful autocratic competitors in the global arena, and challenges to democracy in some of the very countries promoting it. Moreover, the crisis in development aid fuelled by the withdrawal of funding by the United States (US) and other countries, and their prioritisation of security, pose further structural challenges. This Policy Brief examines the effects of the global trend of autocratisation on international democracy promotion, summarising findings from a collaborative research project (Grimm et al., 2025).
The findings show that democracy promoters respond to these shifts in four ways: 1) choosing to “carry on and observe” by continuing existing programmes and maintaining cooperation rather than risking confrontation; 2) reinforcing rhetorical and diplomatic efforts for democracy, to signal continued commitment; 3) selectively adapting policies and strategies, with renewed focus on civil society, education and targeted funding, yet rarely making substantive policy changes; 4) disengaging by shifting cooperation toward less politicised fields or withdrawing entirely. So far, however, we lack evidence on the effectiveness of these responses to counter autocratisation.
Given the new challenges to democracy promotion arising from the changed international context, democracy promoters should consider taking the following actions:
Ramping up efforts to counter the rise of autocratic powers: Democracy promoters should proactively deepen their pro-democracy cooperation, reaffirm democratic alliances and maintain a clear normative profile. They should invest in long-term partnerships with governments and civil societies committed to democratic reform.
Revitalising the norm of democracy: Democracy promoters must make a case for why democracy matters, highlighting that it delivers rights and freedoms, as well as stability, prosperity, and peace – at least as effectively as autocratic regimes. Emphasising its tangible benefits can help restore faith in its long-term value, and counter the appeal of autocratic alternatives.
Coordinating strategies and combining strengths: Joint frameworks for action among democracy promoters are needed that allow for the simultaneous use of different instruments, e.g. political dialogue, development cooperation, human rights advocacy and economic incentives. Combining direct and indirect democracy promotion increases adaptability.
Adapting democracy promotion to the context: In contexts where democracy is being eroded, prioritise the defence of current democratic institutions, actors and practices rather than pushing for rapid reforms. Strengthen local actors who uphold democratic values, protect them against repression and maintain spaces for civic participation.
Restoring credibility: Democracy-promoting states and organisations should openly discuss challenges to democracy at home in order to rebuild trust, strengthen legitimacy and facilitate collaboration in defence of democracy. Reinforcing own democratic institutions and upholding the rule of law contributes to restoring the credibility of democracy promoters.
Autocratisation has become a defining global trend, replacing decades of democratisation and forcing democracy promoters to rethink their approaches. Democracy promoters must adapt to several challenges, including autocratisation in target countries, the rise of powerful autocratic competitors in the global arena, and challenges to democracy in some of the very countries promoting it. Moreover, the crisis in development aid fuelled by the withdrawal of funding by the United States (US) and other countries, and their prioritisation of security, pose further structural challenges. This Policy Brief examines the effects of the global trend of autocratisation on international democracy promotion, summarising findings from a collaborative research project (Grimm et al., 2025).
The findings show that democracy promoters respond to these shifts in four ways: 1) choosing to “carry on and observe” by continuing existing programmes and maintaining cooperation rather than risking confrontation; 2) reinforcing rhetorical and diplomatic efforts for democracy, to signal continued commitment; 3) selectively adapting policies and strategies, with renewed focus on civil society, education and targeted funding, yet rarely making substantive policy changes; 4) disengaging by shifting cooperation toward less politicised fields or withdrawing entirely. So far, however, we lack evidence on the effectiveness of these responses to counter autocratisation.
Given the new challenges to democracy promotion arising from the changed international context, democracy promoters should consider taking the following actions:
Ramping up efforts to counter the rise of autocratic powers: Democracy promoters should proactively deepen their pro-democracy cooperation, reaffirm democratic alliances and maintain a clear normative profile. They should invest in long-term partnerships with governments and civil societies committed to democratic reform.
Revitalising the norm of democracy: Democracy promoters must make a case for why democracy matters, highlighting that it delivers rights and freedoms, as well as stability, prosperity, and peace – at least as effectively as autocratic regimes. Emphasising its tangible benefits can help restore faith in its long-term value, and counter the appeal of autocratic alternatives.
Coordinating strategies and combining strengths: Joint frameworks for action among democracy promoters are needed that allow for the simultaneous use of different instruments, e.g. political dialogue, development cooperation, human rights advocacy and economic incentives. Combining direct and indirect democracy promotion increases adaptability.
Adapting democracy promotion to the context: In contexts where democracy is being eroded, prioritise the defence of current democratic institutions, actors and practices rather than pushing for rapid reforms. Strengthen local actors who uphold democratic values, protect them against repression and maintain spaces for civic participation.
Restoring credibility: Democracy-promoting states and organisations should openly discuss challenges to democracy at home in order to rebuild trust, strengthen legitimacy and facilitate collaboration in defence of democracy. Reinforcing own democratic institutions and upholding the rule of law contributes to restoring the credibility of democracy promoters.
Introduction
In her State of the Union address in 2021, EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, stated that ‘we have started to develop a European defence ecosystem’ (von der Leyen 2021). Beyond a mere mention within her speech, the concept was never elaborated on from a policymaking point of view. In essence, while this is a policy signifier, it remains empty of tangible strategies or instruments at the European level. Yet, the concept provides a signal that the EU is moving toward a holistic perspective of European defence and security in the form of an organic collective development, already before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the role of the different parts of what we conceptualise as the Ecosystem has become more prominent. The invasion upended European countries’ defence assumptions, constituting a ‘Zeitenwende’ or ‘turning point’ in European security (Scholz 2024). The uncertainty over the transatlantic commitment since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 further highlighted Europe’s need to strengthen its own security and defence capabilities. It is now critical that the various institutions and actors who constitute the Ecosystem work together to provide for European security given the current challenges.
The European Defence Ecosystem in a new light
As an empty term, we aim to fill in the gap by proposing a European Defence Ecosystem, envisaged as the policy environment in which European and international security and defence actors operate. Conceptualised as the system of actors, institutions and processes engaged within European Defence, it includes (a) the UK, the EU and NATO (and their member states), as well as the defence industry as actors, and any formal and informal bilateral and mini-lateral cooperation between them; (b) relevant institutions and agencies at the EU, NATO and their member state level and; (c) policy instruments, procedures, initiatives and strategies put forward by those actors.
Previous research looked at different elements of the Ecosystem but it never took a systemic approach to connect these moving parts together under a wider framework for defence and security policy making (Håkansson 2024; 2021; Fiott 2023; Bergmann and Müller 2021). It also predominantly emphasised structural factors over the roles of individual agents as norm- and policy entrepreneurs or facilitators within critical junctures or as discursive agents within the organisations involved. We adopt an agent-centred approach emphasising the role institutions play in shaping actors’ preferences and channeling individual agency, incorporating insights from the public policy toolbox, in terms of agenda-setting, policy styles and the role of policy entrepreneurs in moving ideas and concepts forward.
Our approach also seeks to understand how agents navigate institutional complexity and how it shapes the relations between different organisations, engaging with research on institutional complexity (Çelik 2024; Hofmann 2019; Martill 2024), differentiated integration (Rieker 2021; Blockmans and Crosson 2021, Martill and Sus 2023), Europeanisation (Exadaktylos 2012) and orchestration (Abbott et al. 2015) to show this.
Whilst the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine provided an opportunity for a renewed coordinated response to the war among actors within the Ecosystem, including between the EU and UK, we argue that this specific relationship is the weak link. This is due to a lack of formal defence engagement between the UK and the EU (Sus and Martill 2024). It is clear that since the formation of the current Labour government, there is a window of opportunity to advance this relationship and by extension strengthen the European defence ecosystem.
UK-EU relations in the era of Russian aggression
The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine did not immediately lead to a closer security and defence partnership between the EU and the United Kingdom. But it did lead to a clear realisation on both sides that broader, collective issues were at stake and that the poor state of post-Brexit political relations might impede cooperation.
The rapidly emerging division of labour between the EU and NATO coupled with the rapid coordination efforts on the EU side made the UK’s self-imposed outsider status more costly than it had been during the Brexit process (Martill 2025). Meanwhile, the UK’s robust (and quick) response to Russia’s invasion drew plaudits from many EU member states, demonstrating the indispensability of the UK to the European security efforts.
UK-EU re-engagement developed cautiously and informally during this period and was limited by the desire of successive Conservative governments to avoid formal, structured ties. Instead, London focused on bilateral security agreements with countries neighbouring Russia, including Finland, Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic states.
While the UK did not initially prioritise deeper institutional cooperation with the EU, there was close coordination between London and Brussels on sanctions policy and on support for Ukraine’s defence efforts. High-level calls took place between UK and EU leaders and the UK helped coordinate weapons transfers to Ukraine and shaped the curriculum for the EU’s own training mission (EUMAM Ukraine).
Signs of a new approach emerged in 2023 as the then opposition Labour Party signalled it would seek to negotiate a Security and Defence Partnership (SDP) with the EU if elected. The subsequent coming to power of a Labour government under Keir Starmer in July 2024 provided the opportunity to make this a reality and the Starmer government prioritised this aspect of the reset above other areas.
With the new political opening in London, the climate in EU–UK relations shifted. In May 2025, the two sides concluded a new Security and Defence Partnership, marking a reset in post-Brexit security relations and reflecting a shared response to an increasingly volatile global security environment (Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, 2025). The framework establishes regular high-level strategic consultations, joint initiatives in areas such as maritime, space, and cyber security, hybrid threats, and defence-industrial cooperation, as well as the possibility of UK participation in selected EU defence programmes. While the partnership paves the way for deeper cooperation, it remains more of an opening than a concrete framework of cooperation.
The UK, treated as a regular third country, cannot immediately access new EU defence-industrial instruments, such as the €150 billion SAFE fund. For countries that have signed a Security and Defence Partnership, such as the United Kingdom, the regulation permits participation in common procurement actions; however, loans from SAFE remain reserved for EU member states. As of late 2025, negotiations are ongoing to enable fuller participation of UK companies via the UK”s financial contribution to the fund. However, the talks remain deadlocked because London has yet to agree on the fee structure and full industrial equivalence required for participation.
It is likely that a solution will be found, as the UK’s defence industry constitutes a key element of the European Defence Ecosystem, a fact well recognised by EU member states. Indeed, the lesson from earlier negotiations (e.g., over UK access to PESCO projects as a third country) suggest that – while EU member states are not undivided on these issues – there are strong incentives to find ways to enable the UK to participate from the outside, given the overall boost to EU credibility and strategic action this can produce.
Conclusion: What does the European Defence Ecosystem mean for the future of European defence and security?
The conceptual meaning of the European defence ecosystem involves a holistic investigation of the different parts and incorporates their interactions in creating a wider sum for European defence and security. In other words, how do the synergies across the different components of the Ecosystem help build what all the involved partners have in mind in terms of Europe’s role in world politics as a wider sum.
As a new conceptual undertaking with a substantive number of different actors, institutions and processes, this research agenda incorporates different avenues of investigation. We focus here on the ‘weak link’ of EU-UK relations due to the configuration of the Russian invasion of Ukraine constituting a window of opportunity, and the change of government in the UK, bringing in new policy entrepreneurs who are more willing to work closely with the EU on defence in a newly conceptualised integrated fashion. However, it is evident that other linkages are also legitimate fields of enquiry, including Europe’s cooperation with Ukraine, EU-NATO relations, the way minilateralism and informal cooperation frameworks feed into this Ecosystem, and how different actors work with the defence industry, which is also a part of UK-EU relations in this field.
The European Defence Ecosystem does not only constitute an innovative addition to the contemporary conceptualisation of European security, but as a term, it offers the opportunity to synergise with the policy making community. This will facilitate an understanding of the wider implications for defence and security policy, not only domestically but most importantly collectively among the different actors within the Ecosystem. In times of geopolitical turmoil, bridging the worlds of policy-making and academia is not only necessary but imperative – we simply cannot afford to do otherwise.
Author bios
Laura Chappell is Senior Lecturer in European Politics at the University of Surrey.
Theofanis Exadaktylos is Professor in European Politics at the University of Surrey.
Benjamin Martill is Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at the University of Edinburgh.
Monika Sus is Associate Professor of Political Science at the Polish Academy of Sciences and Part-time Professor at the Robert Schuman Center for Advanced Studies at the European University Institute.
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La CDPA publie un communiqué cinglant après le discours de Faure Gnassingbé. Elle y dénonce une démocratie de façade, une paupérisation massive et un régime « centralisé et autoritaire ». Elle appelle à la libération des prisonniers politiques et à une refonte complète des institutions, exhortant le peuple à se lever.
COMMUNIQUÉ DE LA CDPA
Discours sur l’état de la nation en trompe-l’œil :
quand la mise en scène remplace la démocratie
La CDPA a écouté avec lucidité le discours de monsieur Faure GNASSINGBE devant les députés. Derrière les formules bien tournées et la rhétorique de réforme, se dissimule une tout autre réalité : le Togo s’enlise dans une crise institutionnelle dissimulée par des artifices langagiers, sur fond de paupérisation massive et de régression démocratique assumée.
La CDPA a noté que ce discours proclame l’avènement de la 5[e] République comme un tournant historique. Mais ce tournant, loin d’être démocratique, est le fruit d’une révision constitutionnelle imposée sans référendum populaire. C’est donc un maquillage institutionnel au service d’un pouvoir verrouillé. L’Assemblée nationale reste l’apanage d’une seule famille politique, les contre-pouvoirs sont muselés, et le processus de refondation s’est fait sans la participation du peuple. La démocratie revendiquée n’est qu’une façade d’un régime centralisé, autoritaire, et farouchement fermé à la moindre idée d’alternance.
Monsieur Faure GNASSINGBÉ a évoqué l’équité, la justice sociale, la proximité. Mais comment parler d’équité quand sept Togolais sur dix vivent sous le seuil de pauvreté ? Quand les inégalités d’accès à l’eau, à l’énergie, à la santé ou à l’éducation entre Lomé et les zones rurales atteignent des sommets ? Aucun chiffre, aucun objectif, aucun plan concret n’a été annoncé pour inverser la tendance. Pire, le projet de loi de finances 2026, examiné dans une précipitation organisée, consacre l’essentiel des ressources à la dette et aux frais de fonctionnement, au détriment des investissements sociaux. Le peuple togolais n’a plus besoin de discours : il attend des actes.
Le discours se félicite du rôle du Togo comme médiateur régional et promoteur du panafricanisme. Mais quelle crédibilité accorder à un État silencieux face aux coups d’État constitutionnels ? À un régime qui réprime l’opposition chez lui, mais appelle au dialogue ailleurs ? À un gouvernement qui chute dans tous les classements mondiaux de gouvernance, de transparence et de liberté de la presse ? Le respect des droits humains à l’intérieur est le premier fondement de toute légitimité internationale. Le régime l’a manifestement oublié.
Le discours aligne des slogans économiques, mais les engagements budgétaires restent flous. La dette publique atteint 68 % du PIB, contractée au nom des Togolais, sans débat public, avec des emprunts à court terme qui hypothèquent l’avenir. Le secteur privé est étouffé par la corruption, l’arbitraire administratif, et une confiance absente. Sans justice fiscale, sans lutte réelle contre la prédation, sans accès équitable au crédit : il n’y aura pas de transformation, seulement la reproduction d’un système inégalitaire.
L’annonce de grâces présidentielles pourrait être saluée. Mais le silence assourdissant sur les prisonniers politiques interroge. Journalistes emprisonnés, syndicalistes réprimés, lanceurs d’alertes arbitrairement arrêtés ; mais aucune loi d’amnistie générale n’est proposée. On ne construit pas la paix en enfermant les voix dissidentes ; de même, on ne parle pas de justice quand on pratique la répression à tout vent.
Le Togo n’a pas besoin de discours rédigés par des plumes talentueuses. Il a besoin de rupture. De courage. De démocratie réelle. Le peuple n’est pas dupe : il voit, il vit, il souffre et il réclame non des hommages à ceux qui gouvernent, mais des comptes rendus à ceux qui subissent. Il exige qu’on ouvre les vannes d’une démocratie vivante, participative, équitable.
La CDPA appelle solennellement à :
· la libération immédiate de tous les prisonniers politiques ;
· la relecture urgente de la loi de finances 2026 pour en faire un outil de justice sociale ;
· la retraite politique des tenants d’un régime en place depuis plus de soixante ans ;
· la refondation constitutionnelle participative, menée avec le peuple et non contre lui.
Peuple togolais, lève-toi : la démocratie l’exige.
Lomé, le 3 décembre 2025
LE SECRÉTARIAT GÉNÉRAL DE LA CDPA
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