The European Political Newspaper

EU member states moved a step closer to giving Ukraine visa-free access after ambassadors gave the Commission the green light for new talks on easing the rules but only after the bloc beefs up a mechanism to suspend visa-free agreements in an emergency.

The ability for Ukrainians to travel through Europe’s so-called Schengen zone has been long sought by Kiev, since it would potentially give a jolt to cross-border trade.

But some European nations fear an influx of lower-wage workers from Ukraine will put more pressure on labor markets and add to the growing doubts about immigration on the continents.

Both Ukraine and Georgia, another former Soviet republic, are at the same stage in the process, waiting for a compromise between the European Council and the European Parliament on the suspension mechanism.

Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, has fostered closer ties with the EU since Moscow annexed its Black Sea peninsula of Crimea in 2014 and started backing rebels fighting Kiev’s troops in the east of the country.

Many difficulties to progress remain, not least Ukraine’s sluggish fight against endemic corruption and the EU’s caution on immigration after the arrival of about 1.3 million refugees and migrants in 2015, mainly from the Middle East and North Africa.

But, a week before an EU-Ukraine summit on Nov. 24, EU states gave their conditional backing to allowing Ukrainians to travel visa-free to the bloc for short visits.

Implementation, however, will take time as further negotiations are needed between the EU states, the European Parliament and the bloc’s executive European Commission.

The decision on Thursday also says visa liberalization for Ukraine should not take effect until after the bloc – wary of a repeat of last year’s refugee influx – rolls out a beefed-up mechanism to lift any visa waivers in case of emergency.

Talks on the so-called suspension mechanism have been making slow progress and diplomats say it could take weeks before it is in place.

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Global oil consumption will peak no sooner than 2040, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual World Energy Outlook.

“Global oil demand continues to grow until 2040, mostly because of the lack of easy alternatives to oil in road freight, aviation and petrochemicals, according to WEO-2016. However, oil demand from passenger cars declines even as the number of vehicles doubles in the next quarter century, thanks mainly to improvements in efficiency, but also biofuels and rising ownership of electric cars,” the IEA report, which is posted on its website, read.

The report noted that a detailed analysis of the pledges made for the Paris Agreement on climate change finds that the era of fossil fuels appears far from over and underscores the challenge of reaching more ambitious climate goals. Still, government policies, as well as cost reductions across the energy sector, enable a doubling of both renewables – subject of a special focus in this year’s Outlook – and of improvements in energy efficiency over the next 25 years. Natural gas continues to expand its role while the shares of coal and oil fall back.

“We see clear winners for the next 25 years – natural gas but especially wind and solar – replacing the champion of the previous 25 years, coal,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. “But there is no single story about the future of global energy: in practice, government policies will determine where we go from here.”

This transformation of the global energy mix described in WEO-2016 means that risks to energy security also evolve. Traditional concerns related to oil and gas supply remain – and are reinforced by record falls in investment levels. The report shows that another year of lower upstream oil investment in 2017 would create a significant risk of a shortfall in new conventional supply within a few years, the IEA said.

In the longer-term, investment in oil and gas remain essential to meet demand and replace declining production, but the growth in renewables and energy efficiency lessens the call on oil and gas imports in many countries. Increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments also change how gas security is perceived. At the same time, the variable nature of renewables in power generation, especially wind and solar, entails a new focus on electricity security, the IEA said.

Coal consumption barely grows in the next 25 years, as demand in China starts to fall back thanks to efforts to fight air pollution and diversify the fuel mix. The gas market is also changing, with the share of LNG overtaking pipelines and growing to more than half of the global long-distance gas trade, up from a quarter in 2000. In an already well-supplied market, new LNG from Australia, the United States and elsewhere triggers a shift to more competitive markets and changes in contractual terms and pricing, the IEA said.

The Paris Agreement, which entered into force on November 4, is a major step forward in the fight against global warming. But meeting more ambitious climate goals will be extremely challenging and require a step change in the pace of decarbonization and efficiency.

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The surprise victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election of the United States makes headlines around the world. One area it could make big change is the Middle East and particularly Iran.

During the eight years of President Barack Obama in the White house, Iran’s leaders effectively managed to impose their hegemony on the whole region. They started with Iraq where their protégé, the sectarian Shiite Prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki, made sure that US troops would leave as soon as possible only to start an ethnic cleansing of the Sunni population and expel them from jobs and public offices, torturing and killing many dissidents under bogus claims of fighting terrorism.

In Syria, Iran helped the Alawite sectarian President Bashar Al Assad to oppress the Sunnis and wage a brutal war against the entire population who had called for democracy and regime change.

The US indecision towards the crisis in Syria – especially after Obama chose inaction in response to the violation of his declared “Red Line” on the use of chemical weapons by Assad -, emboldened the Iranian regime to push further its sectarian agenda which ultimately led to the increased radicalisation of young Sunnis and the emergence of the ISIS.

When the mullahs started bearing the consequences of the war and were receiving serious setbacks in key areas in Syria, the notorious Iranian General Ghassem Souleimani went to Moscow and asked Mr Putin to enter the game.

Had the US foreign policy shown some more strength under President Obama, the Russians would never have even thought of setting foot in the region. Learning from the Iranian experience of using force to impose foreign agendas, Mr Putin couldn’t be more relieved when he successfully annexed Ukraine’s Crimea to the Russian Federation in 2014 and later sent his warplanes to take control of Syrian skies in 2015.

More than half a million innocent civilians have been killed in Syria in the nearly 6-year war which could have been easily avoided had Mr Obama acted more sensibly and responsibly.

President Trump has now a big task to resolve in his first year in office. The US led coalition might finally succeed in expelling ISIS from Iraq and Syria; but to end the war and the threat of terrorism and to give a prospect of peace to millions of displaced Syrians, the most important element is to remove Bashar Assad from power and let a national conciliation government take over. This could start by US declaring a no-fly zone in Syria and ask the Russians to withdraw their troops so that the democratic opposition can make progress and replace Assad.

But the idea of removing Assad from power will not happen as long as Iran is allowed to have the upper hand in Syria. The US should therefore impose new means of strong pressure on the Iranian regime and against its proxy militia groups such as the Hezbollah and force them to give up the idea of having the whole region under their domination.

The best way to weaken the theocratic regime in Tehran and to force it to release its claws from other countries in the region is to boost and support the Iranian people and the democratic opposition movement who has proven itself ready and eager to change the regime. In 2009, following the fraudulent presidential election in Iran when millions poured into the streets of the Iranian capital and other major cities against the regime, one of the protesters’ main slogans was “Obama, Obama, ya ba ona ya ba-ma” which means: Obama, Obama, either with them or with us! Had president Obama responded positively to those cries for freedom, the Middle East region and the whole word could be in a different state right now.

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From Thursday and until further notice, LinkedIn is down in Russia.

Russia’s communications regulator Roskomnadzor is enforcing a block of the LinkedIn site after the social media platform failed to transfer Russian users’ data to servers in the country.

Russia does not want information about its citizens stored on servers overseas. And regulators are enforcing. A Moscow District Court decision in August 2016 was upheld by an appeal court on November 10. LinkedIn confirms the block.

Since 2014, Russian law stipulates that the data of Russian citizens must be stored in Russia. Two years down the line, Russia is enforcing.

The move signals that Russia could soon become off limits to other major corporations that have not moved data-storage in Russia, including Twitter and Facebook.

Apple and Google comply with Russian regulators’ demands.

In China, LinkedIn has complied with government demand, building the site with data hosted in the country. The difficulty in Russia is unbundling the users from the integrated global network. The platform has 467 million users worldwide, of which five million are Russian.

LinkedIn is being taken over by Microsoft, in the most expensive deal of its kind with a price tag of €24.5 bn. The company claims to be seeking a meeting with the Russian regulator to discuss localization.

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Russia has been accused of trying to manipulate German media to spread concern over issues like the migrant crisis ahead of next year’s national election.

As reported by the Reuters news agency, Germany’s intelligence officials have pointed to Russian support for eurosceptic, anti-immigrant parties in Germany and across the EU. Last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she could not rule out Russia interfering in Germany’s 2017 election through Internet attacks and misinformation campaigns.

Hans-Georg Maassen, head of the domestic BfV intelligence agency, cited the high-profile case last year of a German-Russian girl who Russian media said was kidnapped and raped by migrants in Berlin, a claim later refuted by German authorities.

“This could happen again next year and we are alarmed,” Maassen told Reuters in an interview on November 15. “We have the impression that this is part of a hybrid threat that seeks to influence public opinion and decision-making processes.”

He said it was important to publicly expose such campaigns. “When people realize that the information that they are getting is not true… then the toxic lies lose their effectiveness.”

Reuters noted that there was no immediate response from the Kremlin to a written request for comment on Maassen’s remarks.

Meanwhile, France’s intelligence service has also warned of possible Russian intervention in its spring 2017 election campaign.

Russian officials have denied all accusations of manipulation and interference intended to weaken the EU.

In the run up to the November 8th US presidential elections, intelligence officials in Washington warned of efforts to undermine the credibility of the vote that they believed were backed by the Russian government. Kremlin officials denied any such effort.

In a separate report, The Financial Times noted that European government officials fear that Europe could be more vulnerable to interference than the US because of its wider political and economic connections to Russia; significant Russian minorities in some countries including Germany; and support from President Vladimir Putin for some rightwing populist parties in Europe.

As for Germany, its politicians see a range of dangers, including the hacking of emails and websites, media manipulation, backing for anti-government demonstrations and political support for Russia-friendly populist parties.

German officials are also concerned about possible Russian efforts to influence opinion among Germany’s five million Russian-speakers, mostly immigrants from the former Soviet Union.

The biggest of these immigrant groups — the 2.5 million so-called Russian-Germans, whose ancestors were originally German settlers in Russia — have often backed the AfD, the growing rightwing populist party, in disproportionate numbers in regional elections, reported The Financial Times.

In a separate report, Deutsche Welle (DW), Germany’s international broadcaster, noted that Maassen’s interview on November 16 echoed comments made by Merkel last week, in which she warned of Russian cyber attacks and a disinformation campaign in the run-up to next year’s election.

“Even now, we’re already having to deal with information out of Russia or with internet attacks that are of Russian origin or with news which sows false information,” Merkel said.

Russia has already carried out an information campaign, highlighting Germany’s problems with integrating refugees – a hot-button political issue that has raised support for the anti-immigrant and eurosceptic Alternative for Germany (AfD).

According to DW, Berlin also suspects Moscow to be behind a number of cyberattacks on German institutions, including a massive attack last year on the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, as well as separate attacks on the headquarters of Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

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A planned visit to Turkey by two top members of the European Parliament has been postponed. Elmar Brok, the Chairman of the European Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs, and Kati Piri, the EP standing rapporteur for Turkey, disagreed with Turkish authorities on the format of the scheduled meetings.

“Mr Brok and Ms Piri represent the European Parliament and we cannot allow to have a pick-and-choose approach on who speaks to whom,” said European Parliament President Martin Schulz.

According to a European Parliament press release, this follows the latest round of arrests of Turkish journalists and opposition politicians in Turkey. Schulz was in contact with Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım to discuss how to re-establish the faltering political dialogue between the EU and the Turkish government.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s EU Affairs Minister Ömer Çelik’s visit to the European Parliament on November 15 was part of the agreement to keep open political dialogue.

“Yesterday, I stated clearly to Minister Çelik the admiration for the democratic vigilance of the Turkish people to safeguard democracy during the attempted coup,” said Schulz. “The objections levied by the EU authorities regard the proportionality of the response of the Turkish government in the wake of the coup. The European Union remains committed to dialogue.  Dialogue however requires the two sides to be willing to talk to each other. I continue to hope that the EP will be able to visit Turkey soon.”

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Speaking in Athens on Wednesday, US President Obama said inequality feeds a rising "tribalism" and "nationalism" that breeds suspicion of institutions. Democracy needs equality, Obama argued. If that is true, Greece is the least democratic country in Europe; Sweden is the most democratic.
Operationalizing inequality
The annual Social Justice in the EU of the German Bertelsmann Foundation suggests that Greece is the least fair society among the EU 28. Sweden has the highest Social Justice score...

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The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in the European Parliament has met with small business organisations and the European Commission to discuss ways of creating a standardised system to boost SMEs across the EU when drafting new legislation. A so-called ‘SME test’ for Small and Medium sized Enterprises was proposed in order to put the needs and interests of small businesses at the heart of every decision that is made.

While the tests would not be imposed or centralised, the EU would act to distribute the basic principles of what works best and actively encourage member states to “think small first” when preparing and passing new laws and rules.

“The SME test too often is not properly implemented or, in some cases, not at all,” said Patrick Gibbels, Secretary General of the European Small Business Alliance (ESBA). “Rather than executing a fully-fledged SME test, many Impact Assessments contain a few lines, stating that ‘this proposal is unlikely to adversely affect SMEs’ without any real arguments, supporting evidence or justification. This needs to change.”

According to the ECR chairman of the Better Regulation policy group, MEP Anthea McIntyre, the easiest way to help SMEs grow is to tailor rules and regulations so that their impact on smaller businesses is always considered.

“Large multinationals have lobbying and compliance departments and armies of lawyers to influence and decipher legislation, but their potential rivals and start-ups have to spend a disproportionate amount of their time filling in forms and complying with rules, and less time growing the business,” McIntyre said. “We need to make sure that someone is thinking of them at all times, and this process is about trying to get lawmakers at the EU and national level to ‘think small first’.”

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Hundreds of major companies, including Mars, Nike, Levi Strauss, Unilever and Starbucks, called on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and world leaders on Wednesday to continue to support agreed curbs on global warming and to speed up efforts to move to a low-carbon economy.

In a statement addressed to Trump, U.S. President Barack Obama, members of the U.S. Congress and global leaders, the group, called 360+, reaffirmed its commitment to the Paris Agreement on climate change.

The Paris Agreement, aiming to phase out net greenhouse gas emissions this century, came into force on Nov. 4 and now has backing from 110 nations including the United States.

The Nov. 7-18 meeting in Marrakesh is where U.N. officials and government representatives are trying to work out the details of the pact. However, Trump’s victory in the U.S. election last week has overshadowed the event.

Trump has threatened to tear up the U.S. commitment to the accord.

The 360+ group called on U.S. leaders to continue to participate in the Paris Agreement, support the continuation of U.S. commitments on climate change and continue to invest in low-carbon solutions at home and abroad.

“Failure to build a low-carbon economy puts American prosperity at risk. But the right action now will create jobs and boost U.S. competitiveness,” the group said, in the statement presented at U.N. climate talks being held this week in Marrakesh, Morocco.

“Implementing the Paris Climate Agreement will enable and encourage businesses and investors to turn the billions of dollars in existing low-carbon investments into the trillions of dollars the world needs to bring clean energy prosperity to all,” the group added.

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The ancient Assyrian capital of Kalhu was captured by the Iraqi army was found leveled. Today it is known as the village of Nimrud and is 32km south of Mosul.

Captured by the Islamic State jihadists in 2014, the 3,300-year-old city and its monuments have been wiped out because of hostility to so-called un-Islamic idols. IS published footage with the process of destruction, treating the destruction of the site as an accomplishment with religious significance.

The militants destroyed statues, murals, carvings, palaces, and the famous ziggurat. The site is still mined and booby-trapped, and archeologists cannot assess the full extent of the destruction.

UNESCO condemns Nimrud’s destruction as a “war crime.” IS has destroyed numerous ancient cities, including the 2000-year old Hatra in south Iraq and Palmyra in Syria.

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Sweden’s central bank (Riksbank) announced it is examining the issue of an e-Krona on Wednesday.

Sweden is leaving cash behind. Card payments are taking over most transactions with coins and notes. But, an electronic currency is being considered for payment by those “who do not want to or have any access to commercial banks payment solutions, such as cards.”

Central Bank surveys suggest that less than 15% of Swedes make most payments in cash. And the cash only economy represents 2% of Sweden’s GDP, compared to 10% in 1990. There are now businesses in Sweden that do not accept cash payments; even Swedish homeless people sell their magazines with card terminals.

By 2014, four in five payments were made electronically; that compares with one in four transactions in Italy. Southern Europe tends to be more oriented towards cash payments.

It has been suggested that Sweden may become cashless by 2030, although two out of three Swedes see cash as a “human right.” For instance, what happens to people who are unbanked?

However, there are many arguments for the elimination of cash. Fewer bank robberies, lower transaction costs, and the elimination of tax evasion.

The e-Krona would, like a Bitcoin restore to the transaction some of its anonymity, rendering transactions more discreet and impersonal. That would both reduce and increase resistance to eliminating money in their physical form.

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Poland’s conservative government was celebrating a year in office on Tuesday. Prime Minister Beata Sydlo claimed the government achieved more in one year than the previous administration in eight.

The government boasts the introduction of a child allowance payment, the reduction of the retirement age on Wednesday, and the lifting of a burden for households that had issued Swiss-franc denominated mortgages. Meanwhile, a pace of 3-to-4% GDP growth is considered sustainable for 2017.

That was all achieved despite te first Polish sovereign debt downgrade in a generation, which in many respects was a statement of distrust in expansionary welfare spending and the introduction of measures that hurt the banking sector.

At the same time, the government had tested the limits of the Polish constitution. The government is heavy handed in its appointment of judges and has fired journalists from public media. Meanwhile, the PiS administration is advancing an ultra-conservative moral agenda, which includes the most strict abortion ban in Europe along with Ireland.

Portrait of protestor as he holds sign read in Czech ‘Black Friday’ during protest in support of free Polish media in central Prague, Czech Republic 09 January 2016.  EPA/FILIP SINGER

The victory of Trump in the US is seen as a vindication against liberalism. Beata Sydlo is the daughter of a miner and the PiS administration went to Paris to negotiate a deal for the coal industry, which is and will remain a “national resource.” That is short of calling climate change a lie, but it is clearly not a priority.

Hosting NATO’s Warsaw Summit in July, the Polish government has also spearheaded the bolstering of NATO’s eastern flank.

But, in defense too, Warsaw has followed controversial policies. Top-brass generals have been cleansed, paramilitary organizations have been integrated into NATO’s Anaconda exercise, and Warsaw speaks of rejuvenating the interwar intermarium security framework. Recently, Poland aggravated the Franco-German axis by opting for US made-in-Poland helicopters rather than Airbus.

Poland can identify with the “America first” slogan, although a “New Yalta” would be a nightmare.

Isolationism is feared by an administration that seeks to counterbalance the Franco-German axis rather than work for European defense identity. PiS has been the main ally to the British Conservatives in the European Parliament and have been the second pillar of opposition to a European Defense Community.

The hope is that a Trump administration will push for burden sharing – as the US picks up 70% of NATO expenditure – rather than reduce its commitment to the region. On that score, Poland has little to fear: it is among the six NATO member states spending more than 2% of its GDP on defense. And it prefers buying American if it’s “made in Poland.”

Final preparations for the upcoming NATO summit at the National Stadium in Warsaw, Poland, 07 July 2016. EPA/PAWEL SUPERNAK POLAND OUT

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Dutch Srebrenica veterans keep joining a legal battle against their state.

The legal team making the case for soldiers said on Wednesday that another 80 troops of the Dutchbat III battalion have signed up; that brings the total to 180 plaintiffs.

Soldiers claim that the 1995 UN-mandated mission to protect the Muslim enclave of the city of Srebrenica was “impossible.” In June, Defence minister Jeanine Hennis admitted that Dutch soldiers sent to Srebrenica were indeed The battalion was unprepared, ill-informed, and ill-equipped.

Therefore, the veterans’ legal team has made the case that the massacre of 8,400 Muslim men and boys by the Serbian troops of General Ratko Mladic could not be stopped. Lawyers Michael Ruperti and Klaas Arjen Krikke argue that these young soldiers were held responsible for 20 years for a humanitarian disaster for which they had little responsibility. And they have suffered socially, emotionally, and financially.

Therefore, they demand compensation. Moreover, they make the point that a court should decide on the compensation rather than a government that is morally responsible for the massacre.

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Emmanuel Macron will stand for the French Presidency, he announced on Wednesday.

No one was surprised and polls show he is popular. But, the question is whether he can win the forthcoming French Presidential elections, which are poised to become a third “battle of identity” following the British referendum and the US Presidential elections.

The press was not surprised. Polls suggest that he is drawing from pools of voters on both the left and the right of the political spectrum. He was part of the Socialist government for years, but has insisted on not becoming a member of the party.

Macron, 38, presents himself as a renegade, although he does not look it. He began his career as an aid to François Hollande and was later promoted to a minister of the economy. He then founded his own political movement called “En Marche” (Forward).

A movement is not, of course, a party. But, there are advantages and disadvantages to not being part of a party.

The advantage of a movement is that Macron can dip both left and right, as he is not committed. He told journalists on Wednesday that the political system in France is “outdated” and that in transcending that he can unleash the country’s potential. What he is offering is a clearly pro-European platform and a liberal economic agenda.

French President Francois Hollande (L) escorts the former French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron as he leaves the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, 31 July 2015. EPA/ETIENNE LAURENT

There are also several disadvantages.

Traditionally, parties have funding, institutional support, and media attention. Macron believes he can compensate for that through managerial excellence.

Campaign funding will not be a problem, especially as he presents a traditional market-friendly agenda of deregulation and tax breaks. Some of his emblematic battles were taking on the totemic 35-hour week, calling for an end to job-for-life careers in the civil service, and the elimination of wealth tax. That is his brand.

Macron lacks a nationwide infrastructure “to get out the vote.” But, it is uncertain the Socialist Party still has that capacity, with the shedding of votes right and left of the political spectrum. And Macron says his movement boasts 90,000 members. To the extent he has this core of motivated support, a party could be superfluous. After all, parties are structures tend to question their leaders; movements simply rally behind them.

One thing Macron lacks is roots. The electoral discourse is polarized, with the far-right rising to unprecedented levels. Therefore, Macron needs to show with whom he stands and for what. That is what parties do.

In this respect, Mr. Macron’s greatest ally is Le Pen.

In making these elections about identity, the young liberal banker will have no problem rallying for the multicultural, young, dynamic, hopeful, and European France.

Marine Le Pen, leader of French extreme right Front National (FN) party,  09 September 2015. EPA/PATRICK SEEGER

The French Presidential elections of May 2017 will be a contest for second place in the first round. For over a year, the Front National candidate Marine Le Pen has come in first in the polls, although not with a margin big enough to secure a victory in the second round.

The assumption is that whoever is second will benefit from the mobilization of the centrist, liberal, socially-minded and pro-European vote.

That is what the polls say, if one can believe pollsters after their resounding failure in the Brexit and Trump campaigns.

Macron has a chance to dominate the center.

But, Alain Juppé appears to be more popular, even if he is limited by the appeal of his party. Juppé leads the race for second place and could even beat Le Pen in the first round. For the moment, these two are the most serious contenders for the center of the political spectrum and, theoretically, the presidency.

Nicolas Sarkozy’s reputation is tarnished by numerous scandals. Days before the primaries, he is dealing with a case of illegal party financing from none other than Gaddafi. If allegations against him are true, then he received money from a dictator in 2007 to bomb him in the name of democracy in 2011.

Currently, Sarkozy appears to be competing with the Front National on anti-immigration and sovereigntist rhetoric. He is also competing with Marine Le Pen for who is more like Trump. With a “Le Pen light” image, Sarkozy has galvanized a strong backlash. He is facing “open primaries” in which left-wing voters will participate to ensure that Le Républicains opt for a palatable Juppé.

Sarkozy is too extreme to be a mainstream choice. But, at the end of this contest, Juppé will find a wall to his right. The center-right can no longer contain the nastier sovereigntist right of France. The votes for Sarkozy will not be easily transferable to the center and could end up with Le Pen.

The ruling Socialist Party will hold its own primaries in January.

That is expected to be a ceremonial process. Prime Minister Manuel Valls will be virtually unchallenged. Polls suggest President Hollande does have a chance for either reelection or nomination.

Valls is popular – indeed more popular than Macron – with Socialist Party members. However, he has little appeal beyond. Macron will not be running against him for the nomination.

Alain Juppe will continue to accuse Mr Macron of a stab in the back of President Hollande. But, in keeping outside the Socialist Party, Macron can fend off this narrative. At the same time, while Socialists are going towards their worst electoral result in a generation, Mr. Macron will be an alibi. Many Socialist voters do not feel represented and have turned to the far-right.

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls following a meeting at the Matignon Palace in Paris, France, 18 April 2016. EPA/ETIENNE LAURENT

Coming from the left and with a liberal agenda, Mr. Macron will be better prepared to deal with an identify battle. He will reach further to the left than Juppé to the right.

None of the “second candidates” will have a strong narrative appealing to blue collar and white French men and women who feel left behind. That is the battle of France.

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The man who killed a priest in a small village of Normandy was under police electronic surveillance during the assault.

France woke up to another terrorist attack in a small town in Normandy on Tuesday, but attention is now focusing on one of the two assailants of the brutal assault.

who and why

Two assailant were shot dead by the police, but not before they had forced an 85-year old priest on his knees and slit the throat.

According to one of the nuns that the two terrorists used as human shield, Sister Danielle, the two men ritualized and recorded the murder.

The killing of Father Jacques Hamel in the small town of Rouvray near Rouen, shocked France: neither the place nor the target seemed likely.

Major urban centers seemed the target of choice.

Attention is now on the profile of the assailants and the possible political reactions.

The murderer of Father Hamel was not only well-known to authorities but actually fitted with an electronic tag at the time of the attack. He was the 19-year old Adel Kermiche. His accomplice was his 17-year old brother.

The brothers were local and the elder brother had been arrested trying to make his way to fight for the Islamic State in Syria.

Denounced by his family, he was first arrested in Germany in March 2015, when he was placed under judicial supervision. Then he tried again via Turkey in May 2015, when he was again detained and returned to France.

He was released in March 2016 on condition he wore an electronic tag and remain at home, except for week hours from 08.00 to 12.30. The attack occurred at 09.00, local time.

The so-called “news agency” of IS (Amaq) claimed responsibility for the attack.

political reactions

Reactions are mixed.

On the one hand, the regional Imam, Mohammad Karabila, denounced the “odious act” of a man he called “my friend”; the Vatican spokesman Federico Lombardi. Rouen’s Catholic archbishop, Dominique Lebrun, called for unity and common prayer. President Hollande is to lead on Wednesday an interfaith meeting; he warned on Tuesday that the target of terrorism is democracy itself and called for unity.

On the other hand, the former President and current candidate Nicolas Sarkozy called for a “merciless” reaction, admonishing the Socialist government for being soft on its fight against terrorism. “There is no more time to be wasted,” Sarkozy said. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen also bided for a hardline position, suggesting mainstream parties failed on security.

(Reuters, AFP, AP, BBC, DW, France 24,)

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HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — Vietnam’s prime minister vowed to defend the country’s sovereignty in the South China Sea as he was re-elected Tuesday by the rubber-stamp National Assembly.

In his acceptance speech broadcast live on state television, Nguyen Xuan Phuc called on parties to respect and comply with international law and not to further complicate the situation.

“We must resolutely and firmly defend our independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, be determined to defend Vietnam’s sovereignty in the East Sea and call on parties to respect and comply with international law and not to further complicate the situation,” Phuc said referring to the South China Sea in Vietnamese term.

An international tribunal two weeks ago rejected China’s sweeping claims in the South China Sea in a case initiated by the Philippines. Vietnam is among the other claimants in the disputed area. China is ignoring the ruling, saying The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration has no authority in the matter.

The 62-year-old Phuc won 485 votes from 494 assembly deputies elected in the general elections in May, after becoming prime minister in a vote of the old assembly in April.

In addition to the sea dispute, Phuc’s government faces a serious budget deficit, soaring public debt, an inefficient state economic sector and the worst drought in nearly a century in the southern Mekong Delta, the country’s rice bowl.

But Le Hong Hiep, a research fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute that studies Southeast Asia, said Phuc has surprised many observers and his critics by his pro-business attitude and down-to-earth approach in managing the economy.

“From his interventions to facilitate businesses to his comments on various economic issues, he has demonstrated that he is an active, capable and reform-minded leader that investors can rely on,” Hiep said in an email.

In his speech, Phuc also pledged to speed up reforms, fight corruption and build a transparent and accountable government.

Hiep said the current conditions of the economy force Phuc and his government to explore more reforms to maintain economic growth,

“Vietnam has reached the point of no return, where the government can’t afford to delay the much-needed reforms forever, especially regarding SOEs,” Hiep said referring to reforming the state-owned enterprises which have been slow when only small portions of shares of many major state companies were sold.

Economist Pham Chi Lan said Phuc has initiated many policies to facilitate businesses, but much more needs to be done to push his government agencies to implement them.

“Local and foreign experts have all recommended specific solutions … it’s now time to implement them,” she said “But it requires (the government) to go beyond itself.”

The assembly, with 96 percent of deputies being members of the Communist Party, is scheduled to approve Phuc’s 27-member cabinet before wrapping up its first session on Friday.

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BANGKOK (AP) — The niece of an army conscript who was tortured to death by soldiers was arrested Tuesday on a complaint filed by the Thai military over her internet postings.

Naritsarawan Kaewnopparat last year had posted photos of her uncle’s body and information about the torture he endured. She was arrested at her workplace in Bangkok on charges of criminal defamation and violating the Computer Crime Act.

Military personnel are rarely prosecuted for human rights abuses or other crimes in Thailand, and the military government that seized power in May 2014 has clamped down on free speech.

Naritsarawan won 7 million baht ($200,000) compensation in a malfeasance suit against the army, the defense ministry and the prime minister’s office, but the actual perpetrators went unpunished.

The army’s own investigation concluded Wichian Puaksorn was tortured by about 10 soldiers as punishment when he tried to run away a second time from his camp in the southern province of Narathiwat in June 2011. It said a first lieutenant gave the order and that Wichian was kicked, beaten and dragged across concrete; salt was rubbed in his wounds before he was wrapped in a sheet and beaten again.

“Naritsarawan acted as a representative and advocate in the place of her late uncle’s mother,” said Preeda Nakphew, an attorney for the Cross Cultural Foundation advocacy group. “She fought his case in court and was already paid compensation for his death, so it is unclear as to why the police are acting on this arrest warrant now.”

In a separate case, three human rights activists who were tried on similar charges after being sued by the army will hear the court’s verdict on Wednesday. The charges involve a report the three issued alleging torture by security forces in Thailand’s southern provinces, where a Muslim insurgency has lasted more than a decade. They face the prospect of five years behind bars and a fine of $4,800.

Amnesty International called for Thai authorities to drop the charges and instead investigate the serious allegations the activists’ report raised. “It is the state’s duty to protect human rights activists, not to shield security forces from accountability,” said Amnesty International Secretary General Salil Shetty in a press release.

The report issued in February described acts of torture in the southern provinces as systematic and said that in spite of complaints and campaigns by victims and rights organizations, “the state has not taken any significant action to prevent and address torture.”

Government spokesman Winthai Suvaree said in response to their report that there was no evidence to back allegations of torture.

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NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — A Kenyan half-brother of President Barack Obama said Tuesday he supports Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and not the candidate his brother has endorsed, Hillary Clinton.

Malik Obama told The Associated Press he thinks Trump has a lot of energy and is very straightforward.

“Clinton is not honest because she says that she did not reveal any classified information, and she did. And I don’t see that kind of person being the president of the United States,” he said.

Also, “I do not support same-sex marriage,” he said. “I am Muslim, it’s something God would not approve. The Republican Party doesn’t stand for that.”

Malik Obama also expressed disappointment that his half-brother hasn’t done more to support his Kenyan family and the country. The president’s father was Kenyan.

“I am upset and disillusioned. When he became president there was a lot of excitement and there was a lot of hope that he would do many things for us and the country,” he said. “I don’t think he has accomplished that.”

Trump has tweeted his surprise at Malik Obama’s stance: “Was probably treated badly by president – like everybody else!”

Malik Obama, 58, stirred up controversy in 2010 when he took a teenager as his third wife. He ran for governor in his home county of Siaya in 2013 and lost by a landslide. He was unhappy that his half-brother did not endorse him.

The father of President Obama and Malik Obama died in a car crash in 1982, leaving three wives, six sons and a daughter. All his children except Malik and the youngest, George Obama, live in Britain or the United States.

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Following members of the security forces, teachers and professors, and members of the public administration, the purge in Turkey continues with State Owned companies.

Turkish Airlines fired 211 cabin crew and management as part of the post-coup purge. Turkish Telecom followed with another 200 dismissals.

According to Sabah, many of the employees were sacked because of their alleged links to the network of the US-based cleric Fetullah Gulen.

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Two armed men took five hostages at a church in a small town near Rouen in Normandy, northern France on Tuesday morning.

The two men were armed with knives and took two nuns, a priest, and at two worshippers as hostages in the French town of Rouvray, near Rouen, in Normandy, France.

Apparently, one of the nuns escaped and alerted the police.

The police sealed the area. The two men beheaded the 86-year old priest Jacques Hamel before they were shot dead.

Interior Ministry spokesman Pierre-Henri Brandet says another one of the hostages is critically wounded.

ISIS claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack. President Francois Hollande says “France is ‘at war’ with ISIS.”

There are reports that one of the two assailants was wearing an electronic surveillance tag. The assailant took advantage of a three hour non-surveillance window for this attack.

He had been arrested in Turkey and jailed in France in 2015, while trying to reach Syria.

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