FT / Brussels Blog

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The flow of people into Greece may have stopped, but elsewhere Europe’s migrant crisis continues unabated.

Tens of thousands of people are still making the dangerous crossing from north Africa to Italy every month – and more are dying than ever before.

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Manuel Valls’ dark prediction after attacks in Paris in November, that more lives would be lost as France grapples to contain the most severe terror threat since the Algerian independence war, materialised in Nice on Bastille Day.

But being right about innocent people dying is not a winning political strategy for any government.

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There is something numbing about watching the events buffeting Europe this month. A bloody botched coup in Turkey, shocking barbarism in Nice and of course the small matter of Brexit. These are times of extraordinary upheaval, and we are still only beginning to grasp the long term implications.

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“The horror, the horror has, once again, hit France,” said French president Francois Hollande after another tragic and heartbreaking day for France and Europe.

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Theresa May has picked the team to take Britain out of the EU.

Staunch Brexiter David Davis will oversee negotiations as Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, which provides the apt acronym “SSEE U!”

Mr Davis is an optimist, to put it lightly. The former Europe minister (two decades ago) revealed a rather punchy Brexit plan in the aftermath of the vote: first, sign trade deals with anyone and everyone outside the EU, including the US and China, creating the world’s largest trade bloc. The bulk of this can be done in two years, he says.

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By Arthur Beesley

US treasury secretary Jack Lew visits Brussels today for talks withMargrethe Vestager, competition commissioner.

The meeting comes amid transatlantic tension over the European Commission’s long state-aid inquiry into Apple’s tax arrangements in Ireland.

Ms Vestager’s investigations continue. She had informal discussions on Tuesday with Irish finance minister Michael Noonan on the margins of a regular EU meeting in Brussels.

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Theresa May will be the next prime minister of Britain – and become the chief architect of its departure from the EU.

The soon-to-be former home secretary will be a familiar face to many of those sitting across the negotiating table in Brussels.

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As Brexit Britain weighs the option of a free-trade agreement to access to the EU single market, it would do well to consider the sobering example of a similar deal betweenEurope and Canada. It is relatively uncontentious, yet floundering in choppy political waters.

Known as CETA, talks on a deal concluded almost two years ago, and opposition to it has been growing ever since. Intertwined in the public consciousness with a much bigger trade pact that’s in the works with the US, the deal has become a prime target for green groups, trade unions and left wing parties, which see it as a free-market attack on regulation.

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One of the major legacies of the euro area debt crisis has been tougher oversight of how well, or badly, countries respect EU fiscal rules.

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The British establishment is set to receive another beating today when the long-awaited Chilcot Report into the Iraq war is released.In it, the failings that led up to the war in Iraq – and with it the deaths of 179 British soldiers and an uncountable number of Iraqis – will be laid bare.

Tony Blair, Britain’s last Europhile leader, broke with Berlin and Paris, sided with the US and ended up on the wrong side of history. Until last month, the Iraq war loomed over Britain as the biggest foreign policy failure in a generation. Now, thanks to Brexit, at least it has competition.

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“Don’t like it? Then don’t do it” has become a mantra for EU governments in recent months when it comes to rules of which they are not fond.

The latest leader to ascribe to the philosophy is French prime minister Manuel Valls, who is unhappy with the unreformed law on posted workers.

Countries such as France argue that it allows social dumping, with international companies able to depress wages by bringing in expat workers on the cheap, and want the directive changed.

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Like a couple in a strained marriage, the EU’s 27* national leaders will in September head to Bratislava for a day by the Danube to get away from it all and try to remember why they are still together.

“Sometimes member states need to have intensive discussions among themselves,” said Robert Fico, the Slovakian prime minister who will play host/marriage counsellor. The reason for the city break? “Brussels tends to have a rather negative connotation these days,” says Mr Fico.

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Where to begin? First order treachery, the double Brutus, a “cuckoo nest plot” – this is a political assassination that will go into Conservative party lore alongside the defenestration of Margaret Thatcher. On a cold summer morning, Boris Johnson’s career was laid waste in a matter of hours by his campaign director and confidante Michael Gove, the Brexit-whisperer who convinced him to turn on Brussels. Politics in a democracy does not get more savage than this.

Was this betrayal plotted over months, days, hours? What role did the chancellor George Osborne play? Was Mr Johnson making his own overtures to step aside for Theresa May, the home secretary? The Westminster lobby have done a wonderful job of reconstructing the high-intrigue and low-skulduggery of Johnson’s undoing.

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What if ‘Brexit’ – an outcome dreaded in Paris and European capitals – was a gift in disguise? The thought crystallised in François Hollande’s mind on Saturday, when he sat with Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Front party, at the Elysée Palace. The French president hosted the full spectrum of French politicians to assess Britain’s Brexit vote. All eyes though were on Ms Le Pen, who had been sporting a victorious smile since the UK result.

The far-right leader quickly reiterated her wish to hold an EU referendum herself. “What would be the question?” the president asked her, according to a person who attended the meeting. In or out, she replied. “Out of the EU or the eurozone?” Of the EU, she confirmed – of the eurozone, the Schengen passport free zone, and all the rest. Ms Le Pen’s position has changed – in the 2012 presidential race she focused on scrapping the single currency. Like kindred spirits on the right of Dutch and Danish politics, she has been emboldened by the UK referendum, and become more radical.

For Mr Hollande, who despite record levels of unpopularity is contemplating reelection, it makes sense. Ms Le Pen’s core battle is immigration and she can blame the EU for a refugee influx. By putting the EU at the heart of the campaign, she also seeks to revive the eclectic 2005 coalition that voted down the EU constitution.

But it is a risky strategy.

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EU leaders resume their meeting this morning with one conspicuous absentee. David Cameron is locked out of deliberations – the first time in more than 40 years that a UK prime minister has been excluded. Better get used to it.

Last night saw one of the more awkward dinners in recent diplomatic history, as Mr Cameron tried to explain the meaning of Brexit to his sombre European counterparts.

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EU leaders resume their meeting this morning with one conspicuous absentee. David Cameron is locked out of deliberations – the first time in more than 40 years that a UK prime minister has been excluded. Better get used to it.

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Britain’s post-Brexit referendum rollercoaster continued full pelt on Monday, as the pound hit a new 30-year low, bank stocks crashed, and the opposition Labour party carried on tearing itself to pieces.

Having addressed parliament yesterday on his plans for handling the immediate next steps, David Cameron will face other EU leaders at a summit tonight in Brussels. His authority shattered at home, and with little remaining goodwill to draw on abroad, Cameron is set to find it a deeply awkward occasion.

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After the shock, the reality. Across Europe, politicians, officials, voters and businesses have asked themselves a simple question following the Brexit result: what now?

In Westminster, a political vacuum has emerged. Britain has lost a prime minister and not yet filled his role. Conservatives are jostling for position as David Cameron’s successor. Labour, meanwhile, has turned inward, with shadow ministers launching a coup against their leader.

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Wondering why there is such a fuss over Article 50, the so-called EU exit clause? We’ve annotated the Article 50 text to explain the issues in full. (If you’re using Next FT and can’t see the embedded document, please follow this link.) You can read more about the Brexit divorce talks here and here.

 

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Europe is awakening to a momentous morning. Britain has voted to leave the EU. Sixty years of European statecraft has gone into reverse. Britain’s government is in turmoil. Markets have plunged. Sterling has suffered its biggest fall in 30 years. The uncertainty over what comes next is palpable.

Britain’s vote will transform not just Britain and its place in the world, but spill over into global markets, Europe’s economy, and the balance of power on the bloc. The coming hours will be of historic importance, framing what will be a protracted and difficult divorce. The potential consequences of this vote are hard to overstate. This is the biggest challenge for the continent since the end of the Cold War.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT — BEST OF THE FT

A Brexit vote that changes everything. The referendum gamble that left Mr Cameron’s career in tatters. Our guide to the world’s most complex divorce. The fallout for Europe and the world. The bumpy road for the British economy. The bitter campaign that divided Britain. The FT live blog. What happens next. How currency markets called this wrong. Brexiters find their fizz. Europe’s populists cheer.

THE MARKET RESPONSE

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