He previously said “what most people in this country want is the single market”, and he would personally vote to remain a member of it.
He told the BBC Andrew Marr Show in 2012: ″We would like a new relationship. And it’s very simple – what most people in this country want is the Single Market, the Common Market.”
In the same year, he told BBC Radio Five Live, “Whether you have an in/out referendum now, I can’t quite see why it would be necessary.”
He added that the prospect of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU would not “appeal”.
Mr Johnson asked, “Suppose Britain voted tomorrow to come out: what would actually happen?”
He continued:
“We’d still have huge numbers of staff trying to monitor what was going on in the community, only we wouldn’t be able to sit in the council of ministers, we wouldn’t have any vote at all. Now I don’t think that’s a prospect that’s likely to appeal.”
In The Telegraph in May 2013, Boris Johnson wrote that if Britain left the EU, “we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by Bwussels” [sic].
In his article, titled ‘Quitting the EU won’t solve our problems, says Boris Johnson,’ he responded that, “the question of EU membership is no longer of key importance to the destiny of this country”.
Mr Johnson added that he supported an EU referendum – but warned that Britain’s problems will not be solved by simply leaving the EU as many of his Conservative colleagues apparently believed.
The then Mayor of London asserted:
“If we left the EU, we would end this sterile debate, and we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by ‘Bwussels’, but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills, a culture of easy gratification and underinvestment in both human and physical capital and infrastructure.”
He added:
“Why are we still, person for person, so much less productive than the Germans? That is now a question more than a century old, and the answer is nothing to do with the EU. In or out of the EU, we must have a clear vision of how we are going to be competitive in a global economy.”
On February 21 2016 – four months before the referendum – Mr Johnson stunned the then Prime Minister, David Cameron, by announcing he was joining the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union.
Winston Churchill’s grandson, Sir Nicholas Soames, immediately Tweeted: “Whatever my great friend Boris decides to do I know that he is NOT an outer.”
Just two weeks previously, Mr Johnson had written in his Telegraph column:
“It is also true that the single market is of considerable value to many UK companies and consumers, and that leaving would cause at least some business uncertainty, while embroiling the Government for several years in a fiddly process of negotiating new arrangements, so diverting energy from the real problems of this country – low skills, low social mobility, low investment etc – that have nothing to do with Europe.”
Just before deciding to back the Leave campaign, Mr Johnson also penned a pro-Remain column for the Telegraph in which he wrote that Britain’s continued membership of the EU would be a “boon for the world and for Europe”.
Johnson wrote of the EU: “This is a market on our doorstep, ready for further exploitation by British firms. The membership fee seems rather small for all that access. Why are we so determined to turn our back on it?”
But the column was never published, and a few days later Mr Johnson decided instead to back Brexit.
A spokesman for the ‘Remain’ campaign commented at the time, “Everybody in Westminster knows that Boris doesn’t really believe in Out. He’s putting his personal ambition before the national interest.”
Of course, all this might have a simpler explanation. Boris Johnson might have changed his mind.
But if he can change his mind, why won’t he allow the rest of the country to express a change of mind in a new vote?
The latest YouGov polls show that the Leave ship is sinking, with 2,400 Brexiters changing their minds across the UK every day, compared with only about 300 Remainers changing their minds.
Boris, you’re backing the wrong ship. Time to swap sides (again).
The post Does Boris Johnson remember what he said? appeared first on Ideas on Europe.
EU Ministers of Education, Culture, Youth, Sport and Communication meet on 15 February 2018 in Brussels to hold policy debates on how to take forward the education aspects of the European Council conclusions of 14 December 2017, and on the mid-term evaluation of the Erasmus+ programme and future orientations for post-2020.
Federica Mogherini, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, co-chairs the International Conference for the Reconstruction of Iraq. The three-day event aims to mobilise additional international support for Iraq at this crucial time in the history of the country, following the territorial defeat of Da'esh in 2017.
Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, visits the Austrian Federal Chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, on 13 February 2018, in Vienna.
The Informal Meeting of Ministers responsible for Tourism takes place on 13 February 2018 in Sofia.
When the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was interviewed in Rome early this week, he refused anything less then a full membership of the European Union. Although this is not the first time either Erdogan or his government’s officials are vociferously rejected a form of privileged partnership with the EU, I believe this is probably the right time for Turks to seriously consider a partnership with the EU, provided the offer still holds.
There are two good reasons for this.
Currently Turkey’s accession negotiations with the EU are on hold or it has been in hold for a while. Most people have lost track of what negotiation Chapter is currently open, if any, and which is closed/closed without completion and for what reason. While the EU’s migration deal of 2015 with Turkey was expected to re-energise the relationship between Turkey and the EU, it rather did not change much in the nature of this ever so complicated relationship. However it has been successful in helping the EU member states in stemming the flow of migrants reaching Europe from Sea. Additionally when the EU required the Turkish authorities to make certain changes in its Counter-Terrorism Law so that the EU could introduce visa free travel for Turkish citizens, something the EU promised Turks before approving the Migration deal, the Turkish government is resisting to take those steps.
As a result there is not a constructive or a friendly dialogue between the EU and Turkey that would, as one hoped, re-energise the relationship in some form. I believe if the Turkish government could agree to begin to talks about a Partnership with the EU, this ever slow progressing and complicated relationship could be given another shot.
Furthermore Turkey’s Syrian policy choices have ended up isolating her from the West and the United States of America at the international stage. Not acting in line with neither the EU member states nor with the Americans, it has been questioned whether Turkish government under Erdogan is cozying up to Russia. By seriously considering the option of privileged partnership, the Turkish government could show to the West that it still wants to be part of Europe or the EU. This does not however mean that the Turks would have to give up on full membership forever. Surely if a member state like the United Kingdom can exit the EU, and then hope to form a deep partnership with the EU, Turkey as a privileged partner of the EU could in the future ask to join the EU as a full member.
The post The Case for Partnership with the EU appeared first on Ideas on Europe.
The European Union has a long-term partnership with Afghanistan. In close coordination with Afghanistan's international partners, the European Union is engaged with the Afghan Government to fight corruption, improve oversight, enable economic growth, reduce poverty and strengthen democratic institutions. This is part of the strategy for Afghanistan, agreed in October 2017 until the end of 2020.
Bigger than it looks
As a child, I used to like watching a TV programme where a bearded Australian would talk about some cartoons that he was going to show, hurriedly sketching a character in some dynamic pose.
Part of the fun was the way he caught the characters’ essence: distilling them into a single image.
Of course, this is a televisual treat now pushed to one side, for various reasons; but the guy’s catchphrase, which heads this post, sprang to mind the other day in a completely different context.
This week marks the end of the first part of the prep for Phase 2 talks in the Article 50 process. Since December’s European Council, both the UK and the EU have been engaged in internal negotiations.
For the EU, that’s meant agreeing the mandate for Phase 2, including yesterday’s proposal on transition.
For the UK, it’s meant getting caught up in questions about releasing impact assessments and starting to consider the preferred end-state of any future UK-EU relationship post-membership.
This last point – manifesting itself in this week’s Cabinet sub-committee meetings – were the prompt for my childhood memory, for they would seem to represent the logical point at which the UK can address the ever-mounting pressure to provide clarity on its intentions.
Swapshop
This demand comes from all quarters: domestic, EU and internationally. Without knowing where the UK might be trying to head, it’s very hard to plan, whether you’re a business, a citizen or a Commission negotiator: no headline goal means no way of building the more detailed things underneath that. My thoughts on this are long-standing and don’t bear repeating here, other than to recall that the UK’s current position is a set of mutually-inconsistent headlines (in the tabloid sense).
But as we move into Phase 2, where very precisely the future destination of this process is under discussion, it might seem logical that now is the moment to bite the bullet.
However, three big objections stand in the way.
The first is a point first suggested to me by @Sime0nStylites the other day, namely that Theresa May might well believe that she has a settled and suitably agreed plan.
Evidence of this comes from a speech given by her former strategy director, Chris Wilkins, to a UK in a Changing Europe event last week. Wilkins argued that May has always tried to place Brexit within a wider frame of the future of the country and the society we are trying to build. Laudable aims, but not obviously executed in practice. Matters of social justice do not map easily on to models of UK-EU relations and even where they do, Number 10 has not tried to make that case. As much as the tone of Wilkin’s speech might be understood through the lens of his former role, the decided lack of criticality suggests that the consistency of the Brexit agenda has not been seriously challenged on its own terms.
At the same time, my unwillingness to ascribe a lack of reflection to someone who has managed to make their way to the office of Prime Minister means that we have to handle this with a degree of caution. Even with her small circle of advisors, May has had more than enough exposure to critiques of the Lancaster House agenda to know that it is not sufficient to carry negotiations through to October. So there must be something more.
The Muppet Show
This leads nicely to the second objection, namely that there will be no detailing of a UK plan because no consensus is possible.
As the previous months has shown so frequently, the Cabinet – and the Conservatives more generally – remain split in their views. There is a significant group pushing for a hard break – up to and including walking away from the table – but there is also a blocking minority that wants a very soft model. Neither can force the other into a defeat, especially with a Labour party that continues to hedge its bets.
Obfuscation is thus a party management tool for May: by not collapsing her ambiguity she is able to offer treats to all, even as she fails to offer succor. As much as she appears to satisfy no-one, equally no-one can be sure of who might come next, so she remains in office. But that doesn’t mean she has freedom to do as she likes, but rather she has to continue to plot a tricky course between the different interests.
Danger Mouse
This domestic barrier is further aided by the nature of Article 50 itself.
There’s no intrinsic need to detail the final end-state within the Article 50 agreement, largely because it can be left to later. The only necessities are the Phase 1 issues, a framework for negotiating the new relationship and a set of transition arrangements. The first is in progress (albeit with some big issues still outstanding), the second is trivial and the last is close to agreement (since neither side wants to pick that fight).
Yes, once you begin the new relationship negotiations in April 2019, then you need an objective, but if you have a ‘full monty‘ transition, then there’s much less of a problem, since you’ve kept in place all the current policy arrangements.
To go one step further, the absence of a British position on the end-state might makes matters simpler, precisely because it precludes the inclusion of any language about the new relationship in the Article 50 text. Everyone can sign up to ‘deep and special’ (or similar language), but that hardly commits anyone to anything.
And to go another step, if May does fancy a softer Brexit, then this all would help to keep the UK closer to the EU, for lack of a viable alternative plan: going ‘full monty’ becomes an imperative to keep options open until a decision is made. The EU would likely not complain about a continuing stream of budget contributions without the costs of having the UK at the Council table.
Time for bed
As well as the cartoon programme, I also used to watch a Japanese show, about a monkey – made human – on some quest. I can honestly say that I never had the faintest clue what was going on and there never seemed to be a resolution, but it was quite a spectacle.
Importantly, Brexit is not a kid’s TV show. But the fog of confusion surrounding the UK government’s preferences on the future relationship with the EU are likely to hang around us from some time yet. How much of a problem that is – for the government’s longevity, for the conclusion of a deal on Article 50, or for the articulation of an idea of a future British society – remains debatable. However, if the UK is to move from crisis management to strategic planning, then that fog will have to lift.
The post Can you tell what it is yet? appeared first on Ideas on Europe.
And so, it has come about. My article was shared by Independent readers a record 67,000 times, but Brexit went ahead.
Today, I am re-publishing my article from 13 June 2016. Not everything I predicted came true – but too much of it has:
“WE WANT OUR COUNTRY BACK!” is the clarion cry of many who want Britain to leave the European Union.But whose country do they want back exactly? Your country? My country? Or really, just their country?
Before we leave the European Union and possibly change our country forever, we need to have an idea what country we’d leave behind, and what country we’d get instead, if we vote for Brexit on 23rd June.
Look carefully at those Tories who are running the ‘Leave’ campaign and calling for Britain to completely change direction outside the EU.
What could be their real motive?
Those leading Tories – Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan Smith, Chris Grayling, John Whittingdale, Priti Patel, and others – have in this campaign viciously attacked their own government and Prime Minister.
It’s been a nasty and sustained ‘blue on blue’ offensive.
Do they know what they’re doing?
Presumably, yes. The referendum presents for them a possible once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to win power for their style of right-wing Conservatism.
So when they say, “Let’s take back control”, they really mean, “We want to take control”.
When they say “Bring back power from Brussels”, they really mean, “We want that power”.
And when they say, “We want our country back”, they really mean their country. The true-blue right-wing Tory Britain of the past that they sorely miss.
These Conservatives have taken a calculated but clever risk. They know that if the referendum results in Brexit, it will mean the end of David Cameron’s premiership and those now in government who support his Remain campaign.
Then what?
There would be resignations and a new leader of the Conservative Party would be elected by the party’s membership.
According to YouGov, Boris Johnson would be front-runner by far to become Tory Leader. On Brexit, we could have a new brand of Conservative government, with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister.
Another election would not legally be required until 2020.
The country we’d be “getting back” on Brexit would be run by possibly the most right-wing Tory government anyone of us can remember.
Instead of our current alliances with Europe, we could be back to Rule Britannia with orthodox Tory Eurosceptics as our new political masters. They could have uninterrupted power for almost four years.
Opposition? What opposition? Labour and the Lib Dems are in disarray.
If these Tory hopefuls get “their country back” on Brexit, what could Britain become?
For an answer, take a close look at what these right-wing Tory Brexiteers stand for. Here are some brief examples:
• Iain Duncan-Smith: Long-term Eurosceptic and former Tory leader, he was until recently the Secretary of State for Works and Pensions. The social policies he proposed were described by the European Court of Justice as “unfit for a modern democracy” and “verging on frighteningly authoritarian”.
• Michael Gove: He was last year appointed as Secretary of State for Justice, with a mandate to scrap the Human Rights Act – which might only be possible if Britain leaves the European Union. As Education Secretary, Mr Gove was widely criticised for his heavy-handed education reforms and described as having a “blinkered, almost messianic, self-belief.”
• Boris Johnson: He’s the ‘poster boy’ of the Leave campaign and the likely new Prime Minister if Britain backs Brexit. His buffoonery and gaffes delight some, but horrify others. He once joked that women only go to university to find a husband. He has often dithered on big issues, wavering last year on whether to return to the House of Commons while still London Mayor. Some have criticised him for allegedly joining ‘Leave’ only because of the opportunity to become Prime Minister.
• Priti Patel: She’s the Minister for Employment. In a pro-Brexit speech last month she said, “If we could just halve the burdens of the EU social and employment legislation we could deliver a £4.3 billion boost to our economy and 60,000 new jobs.” TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady responded, “Leave the EU and lose your rights at work – that’s the message that even Leave campaigners like Priti Patel are now giving.”
• Chris Grayling: He’s the Leader of the House of Commons and previously Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice. He provoked the first strike by barristers and solicitors for his cuts to legal aid. He backed reforms to curb the power of the European Court of Human Rights. He caused outrage with his comments that Christian owners of bed and breakfasts should have the right to turn away gay couples (he later apologised).
And waiting in the wings is Ukip leader Nigel Farage who said he puts victory in the referendum above loyalty to his party. Farage also said he would back Boris Johnson to be Prime Minister if Britain votes for Brexit – and could see himself working for Boris’s government.
Imagine our current Tory government morphing into a new government consisting only of right-wing Eurosceptic Tories, with the softer pro-EU Conservatives disbanded because they lost the referendum.
A new Conservative government that wouldn’t be subject to the progressive rules and safeguards of the European Union – such as on workers’ rights, free movement and protection of the environment.
Then imagine that we might not have an opportunity to vote out such a new government until 2020.
If you’re one of those who say “We want our country back”, have a think about what country you’d be getting back if we left the EU, and who’d really be in charge of it. Would they represent you?
Is the EU so bad – and the alternative so good – that we’d want to risk exchanging what we’ve got for what we’d get?The post Brexit won’t get your country back appeared first on Ideas on Europe.