Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Die Abteilung Klimapolitik des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) sucht zum nächstmöglichen Zeitpunkt

eine studentische Hilfskraft (m/w/div)

für 10 Wochenstunden.

Ein Gesetzentwurf aus dem Bundesarbeitsministerium sieht offenbar vor, die Sanktionen beim Bürgergeld zu verschärfen. So sollen Personen, die wiederholt zumutbare Jobangebote ablehnen, künftig vorübergehend kein Bürgergeld erhalten. Dazu eine Einschätzung von Marcel Fratzscher, Präsident des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin):

Der Vorschlag von Bundesarbeitsminister Heil, härtere Sanktionen beim Bürgergeld gegenüber jenen auszusprechen, die Arbeitsangebote ablehnen, ist richtig. Er wird aber nichts grundlegend an der Tatsache ändern, dass viel zu viele Menschen auf das Bürgergeld angewiesen sind. Der effektivste Weg, um mehr Menschen in Arbeit zu bringen, ist ein stärkeres Fördern, mehr Qualifizierung und eine direktere Unterstützung. 

Die härteren Sanktionen würden eine sehr kleine Minderheit treffen. Die große Mehrheit derer, die Bürgergeld beziehen, bemüht sich. Die Maßnahme ist eher Symbolpolitik, um die Reputation des Bürgergelds – nach den Attacken von manchen aus FDP und CDU – wieder zu verbessern. Ich habe Zweifel, dass diese Symbolpolitik funktionieren und stattdessen nicht vielmehr von populistischen Politiker*innen genutzt werden wird, um weiterhin die falsche These vom Missbrauch des Bürgergelds zu verbreiten. Eine deutlich bessere Vorbeugung, eine effektivere Förderung durch Qualifizierung sowie bessere Perspektiven und Hilfen bei der Integration von Geflüchteten sind die einzig effektiven Maßnahmen, um die Anzahl der Bezieher*innen von Bürgergeld mittelfristig deutlich zu reduzieren.

መንግስታት እና ለጋሾች በቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ትምህርትና ሥልጠና (ቴሙትስ) አማካኝነት የሥራ ዕድሎችን እና
ምርታማነትን የማሳደግ ከፍተኛ ምኞት አላቸው። ሥልጠናው በዋናነት የሥራ ገበያው የሚፈልገውን ሙያ
በማስተማር ብቃት ያለው የሰው ኃይል አቅርቦትን ማመቻቸት ይጠበቅበታል። እነዚሁ አካላት የቴክኒክና ሙያ
ትምህርትና ሥልጠና ከሥራ ስምሪት ባሻገር አካታችነትን፣ የፆታ እኩልነትን እና ማኅበራዊ ትስስርን (social
cohesion) በኅብረተሰቡ ውስጥ እንደሚያሻሽል ይገምታሉ።
የሥራ እድል ተደራሽነት ፤ ማኅበራዊ እና ኢኮኖሚያዊ ውህደትን በማጎልበት እንዲሁም ተፈናቃዮችን መልሶ
በማቋቋም ረገድ ወሳኝ ሚናን ይጫወታል። በስደት ረዥም ጊዜ መቆየት እና ወደሶስተኛ አገር የሚደረጉ የቋሚ
መፍትሄ እድሎች ማሽቆልቆል፤ የስደተኞች የመጀመርያ መዳረሻ አገሮች ውስጥ ማኅበራዊ ውህደት (local
integration) ፍለጋን አነሳስቷል። ባለፉት አስርት ዓመታት የቴክኒክና ሙያ ትምህርትና ሥልጠና ከፍተኛ ትኩረትን
የሳበው ከዚህ አንፃር ነው።
የቴክኒክና ሙያ ትምህርትና ሥልጠና የእነዚህን መንግስታት እና ለጋሾች ምኞቶች ያሟላ ነው? በአጠቃላይ
በቴክኒክና ሙያ ትምህርትና ሥልጠና ላይ ያሉ ተጨባጭ ማስረጃዎች ውስን እና በአብዛኛው ወጥነት የሌላቸው
ናቸው። ከሥራና ከገቢ አንፃር ሲታይ ትንሽ አወንታዊ ውጤት እንዳለ መረጃዎች ቢጠቁሙም በአብዛኛው ውጤቶች
የሚታዩት ከመካከለኛ እስከ ረዥም ጊዜ (Medium and long term) ሲሆን፣ በአጠቃላይ ፕሮግራሞቹ ለረጅም ጊዜ
ሥራ አጦች በተሻለ ሁኔታ ይሰራሉ። ይህ በእንዲህ እንዳለ፣ የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና በማኅበራዊ ትስስር ዙሪያ
ሊያመጣ የሚችለውን ውጤት በተመለከተ ትልቅ የእውቀት ክፍተት አለ። በፖሊሲው ከተቀመጠው የገንዘብ
መጠን እና ከሚጠበቀው ከፍተኛ ግምት አንፃር፣ የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና የተቀመጠለትን ዓላማ እንዴት
እንደሚያሳካ መረዳት አስፈላጊ ነው።
በዚህ የፖሊሲ ምክረ ሃሳብ በጀርመን ዓለም አቀፍ ትብብር ኤጀንሲ (ጂአይዜድ) አማካኝንት በኢትዮጵያ
የተተገበረውን ሁሉን አቀፍ የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና (TVET) ጥናት ውጤት አቅርበናል። በዚህ ፕሮግራም ስደተኞችን
ተቀባይ ሀገር ነዋሪዎች እና ስደተኞች በጋራ ስልጠናውን የተከታተሉ ሲሆን፣ ዓላማውም ማኅበራዊ ትስስርን
ማጎልበት እና የሥራ እድሎችን ማመቻቸት ነው።
የጥናቱ ውጤቶቹ እንደሚያመለክቱት፣ በማኅበራዊ ትስስር በኩል የታዩ ተፅእኖዎች በብዙ ገፅታ ጥሩ ቢሆኑም፣
ከገቢ እና ከሥራ እድል አንጻር ውጤቶቹ ዝቅተኛ እና የተወሰኑ ግለሰቦች ላይ ያተኮሩ ናቸው። አሃዛዊ እና አሃዛዊ
ያልሆኑ (quantitative and qualitative) ማስረጃዎች የሚጠቁሙት ስልጠናው የማኅበራዊ ትስስርን ለማሳደግ
እንደሚረዳ ነው፡፡ ከፕሮግራም ዲዛይን ወይም ከአፈጻጸም ችግሮች በላይ እንደ የሥራ እድሎች ውስንነት፣ የሕግ
ማቆዎች እና የፆታ እኩልነትን መሰረት ያደረገ እድል ያለመኖር እና የመሳሰሉ በመዋቅራዊ ችግሮች ስልጠናው
በስራ እድል ፈጠራ በኩል ውጤታማ እንዳይሆን ዋና መሰናክል ሆነው ይታያሉ።
የጥናቱ ዋና ዋና ምክረ ሃሳቦች፥

•  የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ትምህርትና ስልጠና (ቴሙትስ) ሲታቀድ ጥንቃቄ በተሞላበት ጥናት ማለትም፤ ከጉልበት

ገበያው አቅም እና ከህግ ማእቀፉ አንጻር በበቂ ሁኔታ መታየት አለበት፡፡ በተለይ የሥራ እድሎችን
ከመፍጠር አንጻር ይህ በጣም ወሳኝ ነው፡፡

• ማኅበራዊ ትስስርን ለማሻሻል ፤ አካታች የሆነ የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና ውጤታማ መሣሪያ ሆኖ

ይስተዋላል። ነገር ግን ማኅበራዊ ትስስር ፣ ከሥራ እድል ፈጠራ እንደ ተጨማሪ ውጤት ብቻ ሳይሆን
የስልጠናው ዋና ዓላማ ሆኖ የሚውሰድ ከሆነ፤ “ሌሎች የተሻሉ አማራጮች አልነበሩም ወይ?” የሚል
ጥያቄ ያስነሳል፡፡ በተለይ ከሥራ እድል ፈጠራ እና ከገቢ አንጻር በተያያዘ ባለን ማስረጃ መሰረት ጥያቄውን
የበለጠ አስፈላጊ ያደርገዋል።

•  አካታች የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና (ቴሙትስ) መርሃ ግብር የሚያመጣውን ለውጥ በተመለከተ፣ ሰፋ ያሉ

ተጨማሪ ጥናቶችን ይፈልጋል። መሞላት ካለባቸው የእውቀት ክፍተቶች መካከል የቴክኒክና ሙያ ሥልጠና
በስደተኞች ላይ የሚያሳድረው ተጽዕኖ፣ ሊያስከትል የሚችለውን አሉታዊ እና አወንታዊ ተጽዕኖ፤ ሊያስከትል
የሚችለው ማኅበራዊ ተጽዕኖ፣ እንዲሁም በፆታ በኩል እና ከመካከለኛ እስከ የረዥም ጊዜ ያለው የሥራ እድል
ፈጠራ እና ገቢ ላይ የሚኖሩት ውጤቶች ይገኙበታል።

መንግስታት እና ለጋሾች በቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ትምህርትና ሥልጠና (ቴሙትስ) አማካኝነት የሥራ ዕድሎችን እና
ምርታማነትን የማሳደግ ከፍተኛ ምኞት አላቸው። ሥልጠናው በዋናነት የሥራ ገበያው የሚፈልገውን ሙያ
በማስተማር ብቃት ያለው የሰው ኃይል አቅርቦትን ማመቻቸት ይጠበቅበታል። እነዚሁ አካላት የቴክኒክና ሙያ
ትምህርትና ሥልጠና ከሥራ ስምሪት ባሻገር አካታችነትን፣ የፆታ እኩልነትን እና ማኅበራዊ ትስስርን (social
cohesion) በኅብረተሰቡ ውስጥ እንደሚያሻሽል ይገምታሉ።
የሥራ እድል ተደራሽነት ፤ ማኅበራዊ እና ኢኮኖሚያዊ ውህደትን በማጎልበት እንዲሁም ተፈናቃዮችን መልሶ
በማቋቋም ረገድ ወሳኝ ሚናን ይጫወታል። በስደት ረዥም ጊዜ መቆየት እና ወደሶስተኛ አገር የሚደረጉ የቋሚ
መፍትሄ እድሎች ማሽቆልቆል፤ የስደተኞች የመጀመርያ መዳረሻ አገሮች ውስጥ ማኅበራዊ ውህደት (local
integration) ፍለጋን አነሳስቷል። ባለፉት አስርት ዓመታት የቴክኒክና ሙያ ትምህርትና ሥልጠና ከፍተኛ ትኩረትን
የሳበው ከዚህ አንፃር ነው።
የቴክኒክና ሙያ ትምህርትና ሥልጠና የእነዚህን መንግስታት እና ለጋሾች ምኞቶች ያሟላ ነው? በአጠቃላይ
በቴክኒክና ሙያ ትምህርትና ሥልጠና ላይ ያሉ ተጨባጭ ማስረጃዎች ውስን እና በአብዛኛው ወጥነት የሌላቸው
ናቸው። ከሥራና ከገቢ አንፃር ሲታይ ትንሽ አወንታዊ ውጤት እንዳለ መረጃዎች ቢጠቁሙም በአብዛኛው ውጤቶች
የሚታዩት ከመካከለኛ እስከ ረዥም ጊዜ (Medium and long term) ሲሆን፣ በአጠቃላይ ፕሮግራሞቹ ለረጅም ጊዜ
ሥራ አጦች በተሻለ ሁኔታ ይሰራሉ። ይህ በእንዲህ እንዳለ፣ የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና በማኅበራዊ ትስስር ዙሪያ
ሊያመጣ የሚችለውን ውጤት በተመለከተ ትልቅ የእውቀት ክፍተት አለ። በፖሊሲው ከተቀመጠው የገንዘብ
መጠን እና ከሚጠበቀው ከፍተኛ ግምት አንፃር፣ የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና የተቀመጠለትን ዓላማ እንዴት
እንደሚያሳካ መረዳት አስፈላጊ ነው።
በዚህ የፖሊሲ ምክረ ሃሳብ በጀርመን ዓለም አቀፍ ትብብር ኤጀንሲ (ጂአይዜድ) አማካኝንት በኢትዮጵያ
የተተገበረውን ሁሉን አቀፍ የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና (TVET) ጥናት ውጤት አቅርበናል። በዚህ ፕሮግራም ስደተኞችን
ተቀባይ ሀገር ነዋሪዎች እና ስደተኞች በጋራ ስልጠናውን የተከታተሉ ሲሆን፣ ዓላማውም ማኅበራዊ ትስስርን
ማጎልበት እና የሥራ እድሎችን ማመቻቸት ነው።
የጥናቱ ውጤቶቹ እንደሚያመለክቱት፣ በማኅበራዊ ትስስር በኩል የታዩ ተፅእኖዎች በብዙ ገፅታ ጥሩ ቢሆኑም፣
ከገቢ እና ከሥራ እድል አንጻር ውጤቶቹ ዝቅተኛ እና የተወሰኑ ግለሰቦች ላይ ያተኮሩ ናቸው። አሃዛዊ እና አሃዛዊ
ያልሆኑ (quantitative and qualitative) ማስረጃዎች የሚጠቁሙት ስልጠናው የማኅበራዊ ትስስርን ለማሳደግ
እንደሚረዳ ነው፡፡ ከፕሮግራም ዲዛይን ወይም ከአፈጻጸም ችግሮች በላይ እንደ የሥራ እድሎች ውስንነት፣ የሕግ
ማቆዎች እና የፆታ እኩልነትን መሰረት ያደረገ እድል ያለመኖር እና የመሳሰሉ በመዋቅራዊ ችግሮች ስልጠናው
በስራ እድል ፈጠራ በኩል ውጤታማ እንዳይሆን ዋና መሰናክል ሆነው ይታያሉ።
የጥናቱ ዋና ዋና ምክረ ሃሳቦች፥

•  የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ትምህርትና ስልጠና (ቴሙትስ) ሲታቀድ ጥንቃቄ በተሞላበት ጥናት ማለትም፤ ከጉልበት

ገበያው አቅም እና ከህግ ማእቀፉ አንጻር በበቂ ሁኔታ መታየት አለበት፡፡ በተለይ የሥራ እድሎችን
ከመፍጠር አንጻር ይህ በጣም ወሳኝ ነው፡፡

• ማኅበራዊ ትስስርን ለማሻሻል ፤ አካታች የሆነ የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና ውጤታማ መሣሪያ ሆኖ

ይስተዋላል። ነገር ግን ማኅበራዊ ትስስር ፣ ከሥራ እድል ፈጠራ እንደ ተጨማሪ ውጤት ብቻ ሳይሆን
የስልጠናው ዋና ዓላማ ሆኖ የሚውሰድ ከሆነ፤ “ሌሎች የተሻሉ አማራጮች አልነበሩም ወይ?” የሚል
ጥያቄ ያስነሳል፡፡ በተለይ ከሥራ እድል ፈጠራ እና ከገቢ አንጻር በተያያዘ ባለን ማስረጃ መሰረት ጥያቄውን
የበለጠ አስፈላጊ ያደርገዋል።

•  አካታች የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና (ቴሙትስ) መርሃ ግብር የሚያመጣውን ለውጥ በተመለከተ፣ ሰፋ ያሉ

ተጨማሪ ጥናቶችን ይፈልጋል። መሞላት ካለባቸው የእውቀት ክፍተቶች መካከል የቴክኒክና ሙያ ሥልጠና
በስደተኞች ላይ የሚያሳድረው ተጽዕኖ፣ ሊያስከትል የሚችለውን አሉታዊ እና አወንታዊ ተጽዕኖ፤ ሊያስከትል
የሚችለው ማኅበራዊ ተጽዕኖ፣ እንዲሁም በፆታ በኩል እና ከመካከለኛ እስከ የረዥም ጊዜ ያለው የሥራ እድል
ፈጠራ እና ገቢ ላይ የሚኖሩት ውጤቶች ይገኙበታል።

መንግስታት እና ለጋሾች በቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ትምህርትና ሥልጠና (ቴሙትስ) አማካኝነት የሥራ ዕድሎችን እና
ምርታማነትን የማሳደግ ከፍተኛ ምኞት አላቸው። ሥልጠናው በዋናነት የሥራ ገበያው የሚፈልገውን ሙያ
በማስተማር ብቃት ያለው የሰው ኃይል አቅርቦትን ማመቻቸት ይጠበቅበታል። እነዚሁ አካላት የቴክኒክና ሙያ
ትምህርትና ሥልጠና ከሥራ ስምሪት ባሻገር አካታችነትን፣ የፆታ እኩልነትን እና ማኅበራዊ ትስስርን (social
cohesion) በኅብረተሰቡ ውስጥ እንደሚያሻሽል ይገምታሉ።
የሥራ እድል ተደራሽነት ፤ ማኅበራዊ እና ኢኮኖሚያዊ ውህደትን በማጎልበት እንዲሁም ተፈናቃዮችን መልሶ
በማቋቋም ረገድ ወሳኝ ሚናን ይጫወታል። በስደት ረዥም ጊዜ መቆየት እና ወደሶስተኛ አገር የሚደረጉ የቋሚ
መፍትሄ እድሎች ማሽቆልቆል፤ የስደተኞች የመጀመርያ መዳረሻ አገሮች ውስጥ ማኅበራዊ ውህደት (local
integration) ፍለጋን አነሳስቷል። ባለፉት አስርት ዓመታት የቴክኒክና ሙያ ትምህርትና ሥልጠና ከፍተኛ ትኩረትን
የሳበው ከዚህ አንፃር ነው።
የቴክኒክና ሙያ ትምህርትና ሥልጠና የእነዚህን መንግስታት እና ለጋሾች ምኞቶች ያሟላ ነው? በአጠቃላይ
በቴክኒክና ሙያ ትምህርትና ሥልጠና ላይ ያሉ ተጨባጭ ማስረጃዎች ውስን እና በአብዛኛው ወጥነት የሌላቸው
ናቸው። ከሥራና ከገቢ አንፃር ሲታይ ትንሽ አወንታዊ ውጤት እንዳለ መረጃዎች ቢጠቁሙም በአብዛኛው ውጤቶች
የሚታዩት ከመካከለኛ እስከ ረዥም ጊዜ (Medium and long term) ሲሆን፣ በአጠቃላይ ፕሮግራሞቹ ለረጅም ጊዜ
ሥራ አጦች በተሻለ ሁኔታ ይሰራሉ። ይህ በእንዲህ እንዳለ፣ የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና በማኅበራዊ ትስስር ዙሪያ
ሊያመጣ የሚችለውን ውጤት በተመለከተ ትልቅ የእውቀት ክፍተት አለ። በፖሊሲው ከተቀመጠው የገንዘብ
መጠን እና ከሚጠበቀው ከፍተኛ ግምት አንፃር፣ የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና የተቀመጠለትን ዓላማ እንዴት
እንደሚያሳካ መረዳት አስፈላጊ ነው።
በዚህ የፖሊሲ ምክረ ሃሳብ በጀርመን ዓለም አቀፍ ትብብር ኤጀንሲ (ጂአይዜድ) አማካኝንት በኢትዮጵያ
የተተገበረውን ሁሉን አቀፍ የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና (TVET) ጥናት ውጤት አቅርበናል። በዚህ ፕሮግራም ስደተኞችን
ተቀባይ ሀገር ነዋሪዎች እና ስደተኞች በጋራ ስልጠናውን የተከታተሉ ሲሆን፣ ዓላማውም ማኅበራዊ ትስስርን
ማጎልበት እና የሥራ እድሎችን ማመቻቸት ነው።
የጥናቱ ውጤቶቹ እንደሚያመለክቱት፣ በማኅበራዊ ትስስር በኩል የታዩ ተፅእኖዎች በብዙ ገፅታ ጥሩ ቢሆኑም፣
ከገቢ እና ከሥራ እድል አንጻር ውጤቶቹ ዝቅተኛ እና የተወሰኑ ግለሰቦች ላይ ያተኮሩ ናቸው። አሃዛዊ እና አሃዛዊ
ያልሆኑ (quantitative and qualitative) ማስረጃዎች የሚጠቁሙት ስልጠናው የማኅበራዊ ትስስርን ለማሳደግ
እንደሚረዳ ነው፡፡ ከፕሮግራም ዲዛይን ወይም ከአፈጻጸም ችግሮች በላይ እንደ የሥራ እድሎች ውስንነት፣ የሕግ
ማቆዎች እና የፆታ እኩልነትን መሰረት ያደረገ እድል ያለመኖር እና የመሳሰሉ በመዋቅራዊ ችግሮች ስልጠናው
በስራ እድል ፈጠራ በኩል ውጤታማ እንዳይሆን ዋና መሰናክል ሆነው ይታያሉ።
የጥናቱ ዋና ዋና ምክረ ሃሳቦች፥

•  የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ትምህርትና ስልጠና (ቴሙትስ) ሲታቀድ ጥንቃቄ በተሞላበት ጥናት ማለትም፤ ከጉልበት

ገበያው አቅም እና ከህግ ማእቀፉ አንጻር በበቂ ሁኔታ መታየት አለበት፡፡ በተለይ የሥራ እድሎችን
ከመፍጠር አንጻር ይህ በጣም ወሳኝ ነው፡፡

• ማኅበራዊ ትስስርን ለማሻሻል ፤ አካታች የሆነ የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና ውጤታማ መሣሪያ ሆኖ

ይስተዋላል። ነገር ግን ማኅበራዊ ትስስር ፣ ከሥራ እድል ፈጠራ እንደ ተጨማሪ ውጤት ብቻ ሳይሆን
የስልጠናው ዋና ዓላማ ሆኖ የሚውሰድ ከሆነ፤ “ሌሎች የተሻሉ አማራጮች አልነበሩም ወይ?” የሚል
ጥያቄ ያስነሳል፡፡ በተለይ ከሥራ እድል ፈጠራ እና ከገቢ አንጻር በተያያዘ ባለን ማስረጃ መሰረት ጥያቄውን
የበለጠ አስፈላጊ ያደርገዋል።

•  አካታች የቴክኒክ እና ሙያ ስልጠና (ቴሙትስ) መርሃ ግብር የሚያመጣውን ለውጥ በተመለከተ፣ ሰፋ ያሉ

ተጨማሪ ጥናቶችን ይፈልጋል። መሞላት ካለባቸው የእውቀት ክፍተቶች መካከል የቴክኒክና ሙያ ሥልጠና
በስደተኞች ላይ የሚያሳድረው ተጽዕኖ፣ ሊያስከትል የሚችለውን አሉታዊ እና አወንታዊ ተጽዕኖ፤ ሊያስከትል
የሚችለው ማኅበራዊ ተጽዕኖ፣ እንዲሁም በፆታ በኩል እና ከመካከለኛ እስከ የረዥም ጊዜ ያለው የሥራ እድል
ፈጠራ እና ገቢ ላይ የሚኖሩት ውጤቶች ይገኙበታል።

In pursuit of employment opportunities and increased productivity, governments and donors have the highest ambitions for technical and vocational education and training (TVET) systems. Most prominently, TVET is expected to facilitate access to employment and a qualified workforce by offering its graduates skills that the labour market demands. Beyond its employment impacts, TVET supporters also anticipate that it will improve societal outcomes such as inclusion, gender equality and social cohesion.

Access to the labour market plays an essential role in allowing displaced populations to sustain their livelihoods and to foster socio-economic integration. Long-term displacement situations and a decline in resettlement opportunities have spurred the quest for local integration in countries of first asylum. It is in this context that TVET has gained additional salience in the past decade.

Does TVET live up to these promises? Overall, systematic empirical evidence on the impact of TVET is limited and often inconsistent. In terms of employment and income, evidence suggests that there is a small positive effect, but time plays an important factor. Often, impacts are only seen in the medium- to long-term, and in general, programmes tend to work better for the long-term unemployed. Evidence of societal effects is even more limited; there is a large gap of knowledge on the potential social cohesion impacts of TVET. Given the amount of funding and the high expectations found in the policy discourse, it is essential to better understand if and how TVET measures contribute to achieving their self-declared goals.

In this brief, we present the results of an accompanying research study of an inclusive TVET programme implemented by the German development cooperation organisation Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) in Ethiopia. In this programme, host and refugee participants are jointly trained, with the explicit goals of fostering social cohesion and improving employment opportunities.

The results indicate that while the social cohesion effect seems remarkable on several dimensions, the income and employment effect is at best weak and materialises only for specific groups of individuals. Qualitative and quantitative evidence supports the validity of the approach to achieve social cohesion. More than design or implementation problems, the lack of stronger employment effects appears to be driven by structural context conditions like limited labour market absorption capacity, legal work permission constraints, gender barriers and similar hindering factors.

We derive the following main recommendations from the analysis:

• TVET measures need a careful context analysis (including labour market capacities, legal work barriers) to ensure that the necessary conditions for TVET to succeed are in place. This is particularly relevant in terms of employment effects, which appear to be elusive.
• Inclusive TVET measures seem to be an effective tool to improve social cohesion. However, if social cohesion effects are valued not just as an “add-on” to employment effects but as primary goals, the question arises if alternative interventions might be more efficient. This question is particularly salient given the modest evidence regarding employment and income effects.
• The evidence base of the impact of (inclusive) TVET programmes needs to be expanded. Knowledge gaps that need to be closed include TVET’s impact on displaced populations, its potential societal effects, differential gender effects, and medium- to long-term employment and income effects.

In pursuit of employment opportunities and increased productivity, governments and donors have the highest ambitions for technical and vocational education and training (TVET) systems. Most prominently, TVET is expected to facilitate access to employment and a qualified workforce by offering its graduates skills that the labour market demands. Beyond its employment impacts, TVET supporters also anticipate that it will improve societal outcomes such as inclusion, gender equality and social cohesion.

Access to the labour market plays an essential role in allowing displaced populations to sustain their livelihoods and to foster socio-economic integration. Long-term displacement situations and a decline in resettlement opportunities have spurred the quest for local integration in countries of first asylum. It is in this context that TVET has gained additional salience in the past decade.

Does TVET live up to these promises? Overall, systematic empirical evidence on the impact of TVET is limited and often inconsistent. In terms of employment and income, evidence suggests that there is a small positive effect, but time plays an important factor. Often, impacts are only seen in the medium- to long-term, and in general, programmes tend to work better for the long-term unemployed. Evidence of societal effects is even more limited; there is a large gap of knowledge on the potential social cohesion impacts of TVET. Given the amount of funding and the high expectations found in the policy discourse, it is essential to better understand if and how TVET measures contribute to achieving their self-declared goals.

In this brief, we present the results of an accompanying research study of an inclusive TVET programme implemented by the German development cooperation organisation Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) in Ethiopia. In this programme, host and refugee participants are jointly trained, with the explicit goals of fostering social cohesion and improving employment opportunities.

The results indicate that while the social cohesion effect seems remarkable on several dimensions, the income and employment effect is at best weak and materialises only for specific groups of individuals. Qualitative and quantitative evidence supports the validity of the approach to achieve social cohesion. More than design or implementation problems, the lack of stronger employment effects appears to be driven by structural context conditions like limited labour market absorption capacity, legal work permission constraints, gender barriers and similar hindering factors.

We derive the following main recommendations from the analysis:

• TVET measures need a careful context analysis (including labour market capacities, legal work barriers) to ensure that the necessary conditions for TVET to succeed are in place. This is particularly relevant in terms of employment effects, which appear to be elusive.
• Inclusive TVET measures seem to be an effective tool to improve social cohesion. However, if social cohesion effects are valued not just as an “add-on” to employment effects but as primary goals, the question arises if alternative interventions might be more efficient. This question is particularly salient given the modest evidence regarding employment and income effects.
• The evidence base of the impact of (inclusive) TVET programmes needs to be expanded. Knowledge gaps that need to be closed include TVET’s impact on displaced populations, its potential societal effects, differential gender effects, and medium- to long-term employment and income effects.

In pursuit of employment opportunities and increased productivity, governments and donors have the highest ambitions for technical and vocational education and training (TVET) systems. Most prominently, TVET is expected to facilitate access to employment and a qualified workforce by offering its graduates skills that the labour market demands. Beyond its employment impacts, TVET supporters also anticipate that it will improve societal outcomes such as inclusion, gender equality and social cohesion.

Access to the labour market plays an essential role in allowing displaced populations to sustain their livelihoods and to foster socio-economic integration. Long-term displacement situations and a decline in resettlement opportunities have spurred the quest for local integration in countries of first asylum. It is in this context that TVET has gained additional salience in the past decade.

Does TVET live up to these promises? Overall, systematic empirical evidence on the impact of TVET is limited and often inconsistent. In terms of employment and income, evidence suggests that there is a small positive effect, but time plays an important factor. Often, impacts are only seen in the medium- to long-term, and in general, programmes tend to work better for the long-term unemployed. Evidence of societal effects is even more limited; there is a large gap of knowledge on the potential social cohesion impacts of TVET. Given the amount of funding and the high expectations found in the policy discourse, it is essential to better understand if and how TVET measures contribute to achieving their self-declared goals.

In this brief, we present the results of an accompanying research study of an inclusive TVET programme implemented by the German development cooperation organisation Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) in Ethiopia. In this programme, host and refugee participants are jointly trained, with the explicit goals of fostering social cohesion and improving employment opportunities.

The results indicate that while the social cohesion effect seems remarkable on several dimensions, the income and employment effect is at best weak and materialises only for specific groups of individuals. Qualitative and quantitative evidence supports the validity of the approach to achieve social cohesion. More than design or implementation problems, the lack of stronger employment effects appears to be driven by structural context conditions like limited labour market absorption capacity, legal work permission constraints, gender barriers and similar hindering factors.

We derive the following main recommendations from the analysis:

• TVET measures need a careful context analysis (including labour market capacities, legal work barriers) to ensure that the necessary conditions for TVET to succeed are in place. This is particularly relevant in terms of employment effects, which appear to be elusive.
• Inclusive TVET measures seem to be an effective tool to improve social cohesion. However, if social cohesion effects are valued not just as an “add-on” to employment effects but as primary goals, the question arises if alternative interventions might be more efficient. This question is particularly salient given the modest evidence regarding employment and income effects.
• The evidence base of the impact of (inclusive) TVET programmes needs to be expanded. Knowledge gaps that need to be closed include TVET’s impact on displaced populations, its potential societal effects, differential gender effects, and medium- to long-term employment and income effects.

Development finance is at a turning point, as the macroeconomic environment has changed profoundly and the financing gap for low- and middle-income countries has widened. The events that led to this new situation are the multiple crises that the global economy is facing, such as the climate crisis, the COVID-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine. As a result, interest rates have risen sharply over the past year and are not expected to decline anytime soon. High interest rates further restrict low- and middle-income countries’ access to international financial markets by making borrowing more expensive. At the same time, debt levels in several countries are rising to levels that are almost impossible to repay. Poorer countries find themselves in a trap where financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) becomes a distant goal for them.
To “get back on track” in financing the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs, a number of reform proposals have been put forward within several processes and initiatives, including the Financing for Development (FfD) process, the Bridgetown Initiative and the Macron-led Paris Summit. Despite being initiated by different actors, these proposals all highlight the importance of reforming the international financial architecture in view of the changed macroeconomic environment. The Hamburg Sustainability Conference in June 2024, the United Nation’s Summit of the Future in 2024 and the next FfD Conference in 2025 should be used to strengthen and accelerate ongoing reform processes and come up with new, innovative and bold proposals to reshape development finance in these challenging times. Against the background of the multiple crises and its effects, our key recommendations for the reform of development finance are as follows.
First, new initiatives and frameworks are needed to provide urgent debt relief and restructuring for highly indebted countries. The international community should promote a reformed G20 Common Framework for debt restructuring and discuss a green Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC)-like initiative for debt relief for low-income countries as a solution on a case-by-case basis, integrating short-term shock remedies with long-term sustainable development finance. Debt and climate risks should be addressed simultaneously by better incorporating climate risks in debt sustainability analyses conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, and by considering the volume of investments in climate adaptation because these investments reduce the risks associated with climate change.
Second, tax revenues – the most important source of development finance – need to increase and countries need to expand their fiscal space by reforming their tax administrations and policies. Building fiscal buffers can help countries to become more resilient to future crises. In the short run, eliminating unnecessary tax expenditures such as fossil fuel subsidies is the lowest-hanging fruit to increase tax revenues, while in the long run, more green fiscal reforms (e.g. carbon pricing and environmental taxes) are needed, as well as more effective international tax cooperation. In addition, donor funds should be increased to provide technical assistance and capacity-building to tax and customs administrations.
Third, the Development Assistance Committee member countries should at least halve the gap between their current contributions and the official development assistance (ODA) contribution target of 0.7 per cent of gross national income by 2026, and reach the full attainment of the target by 2030. In particular, donors need to provide ODA in addition to (not as a substitute for) climate finance and channel more ODA to the poorest countries. In this regard, donors should report climate and development finance separately to mitigate the risk of over-reporting.
Fourth, we recall the need to reform multilateral development banks (MDBs). The multiple crises have made the role of MDBs in closing the development financing gap even more important than before. As attracting private capital is becoming more difficult for low- and middle-income countries, MDBs should harness their proven ability to leverage private finance for financing the SDGs. MDBs should substantially increase their lending capacity, for example by lowering their equity to loan thresholds and raising additional capital from shareholders or private investors. MDBs should be reformed to include in their vision the provision of global public goods, such as tackling the climate crisis and preparing for pandemics. Development banks and private creditors should include clauses on natural disasters and pandemics in their financing instruments.

Development finance is at a turning point, as the macroeconomic environment has changed profoundly and the financing gap for low- and middle-income countries has widened. The events that led to this new situation are the multiple crises that the global economy is facing, such as the climate crisis, the COVID-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine. As a result, interest rates have risen sharply over the past year and are not expected to decline anytime soon. High interest rates further restrict low- and middle-income countries’ access to international financial markets by making borrowing more expensive. At the same time, debt levels in several countries are rising to levels that are almost impossible to repay. Poorer countries find themselves in a trap where financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) becomes a distant goal for them.
To “get back on track” in financing the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs, a number of reform proposals have been put forward within several processes and initiatives, including the Financing for Development (FfD) process, the Bridgetown Initiative and the Macron-led Paris Summit. Despite being initiated by different actors, these proposals all highlight the importance of reforming the international financial architecture in view of the changed macroeconomic environment. The Hamburg Sustainability Conference in June 2024, the United Nation’s Summit of the Future in 2024 and the next FfD Conference in 2025 should be used to strengthen and accelerate ongoing reform processes and come up with new, innovative and bold proposals to reshape development finance in these challenging times. Against the background of the multiple crises and its effects, our key recommendations for the reform of development finance are as follows.
First, new initiatives and frameworks are needed to provide urgent debt relief and restructuring for highly indebted countries. The international community should promote a reformed G20 Common Framework for debt restructuring and discuss a green Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC)-like initiative for debt relief for low-income countries as a solution on a case-by-case basis, integrating short-term shock remedies with long-term sustainable development finance. Debt and climate risks should be addressed simultaneously by better incorporating climate risks in debt sustainability analyses conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, and by considering the volume of investments in climate adaptation because these investments reduce the risks associated with climate change.
Second, tax revenues – the most important source of development finance – need to increase and countries need to expand their fiscal space by reforming their tax administrations and policies. Building fiscal buffers can help countries to become more resilient to future crises. In the short run, eliminating unnecessary tax expenditures such as fossil fuel subsidies is the lowest-hanging fruit to increase tax revenues, while in the long run, more green fiscal reforms (e.g. carbon pricing and environmental taxes) are needed, as well as more effective international tax cooperation. In addition, donor funds should be increased to provide technical assistance and capacity-building to tax and customs administrations.
Third, the Development Assistance Committee member countries should at least halve the gap between their current contributions and the official development assistance (ODA) contribution target of 0.7 per cent of gross national income by 2026, and reach the full attainment of the target by 2030. In particular, donors need to provide ODA in addition to (not as a substitute for) climate finance and channel more ODA to the poorest countries. In this regard, donors should report climate and development finance separately to mitigate the risk of over-reporting.
Fourth, we recall the need to reform multilateral development banks (MDBs). The multiple crises have made the role of MDBs in closing the development financing gap even more important than before. As attracting private capital is becoming more difficult for low- and middle-income countries, MDBs should harness their proven ability to leverage private finance for financing the SDGs. MDBs should substantially increase their lending capacity, for example by lowering their equity to loan thresholds and raising additional capital from shareholders or private investors. MDBs should be reformed to include in their vision the provision of global public goods, such as tackling the climate crisis and preparing for pandemics. Development banks and private creditors should include clauses on natural disasters and pandemics in their financing instruments.

Development finance is at a turning point, as the macroeconomic environment has changed profoundly and the financing gap for low- and middle-income countries has widened. The events that led to this new situation are the multiple crises that the global economy is facing, such as the climate crisis, the COVID-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine. As a result, interest rates have risen sharply over the past year and are not expected to decline anytime soon. High interest rates further restrict low- and middle-income countries’ access to international financial markets by making borrowing more expensive. At the same time, debt levels in several countries are rising to levels that are almost impossible to repay. Poorer countries find themselves in a trap where financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) becomes a distant goal for them.
To “get back on track” in financing the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs, a number of reform proposals have been put forward within several processes and initiatives, including the Financing for Development (FfD) process, the Bridgetown Initiative and the Macron-led Paris Summit. Despite being initiated by different actors, these proposals all highlight the importance of reforming the international financial architecture in view of the changed macroeconomic environment. The Hamburg Sustainability Conference in June 2024, the United Nation’s Summit of the Future in 2024 and the next FfD Conference in 2025 should be used to strengthen and accelerate ongoing reform processes and come up with new, innovative and bold proposals to reshape development finance in these challenging times. Against the background of the multiple crises and its effects, our key recommendations for the reform of development finance are as follows.
First, new initiatives and frameworks are needed to provide urgent debt relief and restructuring for highly indebted countries. The international community should promote a reformed G20 Common Framework for debt restructuring and discuss a green Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC)-like initiative for debt relief for low-income countries as a solution on a case-by-case basis, integrating short-term shock remedies with long-term sustainable development finance. Debt and climate risks should be addressed simultaneously by better incorporating climate risks in debt sustainability analyses conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, and by considering the volume of investments in climate adaptation because these investments reduce the risks associated with climate change.
Second, tax revenues – the most important source of development finance – need to increase and countries need to expand their fiscal space by reforming their tax administrations and policies. Building fiscal buffers can help countries to become more resilient to future crises. In the short run, eliminating unnecessary tax expenditures such as fossil fuel subsidies is the lowest-hanging fruit to increase tax revenues, while in the long run, more green fiscal reforms (e.g. carbon pricing and environmental taxes) are needed, as well as more effective international tax cooperation. In addition, donor funds should be increased to provide technical assistance and capacity-building to tax and customs administrations.
Third, the Development Assistance Committee member countries should at least halve the gap between their current contributions and the official development assistance (ODA) contribution target of 0.7 per cent of gross national income by 2026, and reach the full attainment of the target by 2030. In particular, donors need to provide ODA in addition to (not as a substitute for) climate finance and channel more ODA to the poorest countries. In this regard, donors should report climate and development finance separately to mitigate the risk of over-reporting.
Fourth, we recall the need to reform multilateral development banks (MDBs). The multiple crises have made the role of MDBs in closing the development financing gap even more important than before. As attracting private capital is becoming more difficult for low- and middle-income countries, MDBs should harness their proven ability to leverage private finance for financing the SDGs. MDBs should substantially increase their lending capacity, for example by lowering their equity to loan thresholds and raising additional capital from shareholders or private investors. MDBs should be reformed to include in their vision the provision of global public goods, such as tackling the climate crisis and preparing for pandemics. Development banks and private creditors should include clauses on natural disasters and pandemics in their financing instruments.

The social fragmentation of societies is one of the greatest challenges for peace, democracy and human rights worldwide. For some years now, observers have been witnessing ever-stronger tendencies towards social division, also in Western societies, which had been believed to be united for so long. Rising inequality, the rejection of previously shared values and growing scepticism towards public institutions suggest that social cohesion is at risk. Against this background, it seems more important than ever to understand what factors hold a society together – and when such cohesion is most vulnerable. Protecting and strengthening social cohesion has therefore become an objective of many activities at the local, national and international levels, and academics have started to develop methodologies on how to measure social cohesion (see, with further references: Leininger et al., 2021).
This paper aims:
• to give a systematic overview of the literature on African concepts of social cohesion;
• to introduce the discourse around African concepts and to see which relevant concepts of social cohesion can be located in African societies;
• to analyse in more detail some key African concepts and their core elements and to see which conceptual dimensions and insights on determinants of social cohesion differ from the mainstream, while inviting scholars to add further to this listing; and, in particular
• to gain a better understanding of the academic discourse on social cohesion in Africa by analysing the concepts, determinants, origins and context of social cohesion theories as well as the risk of Western bias in identifying concepts for social cohesion in the African context.
One of the questions that inspired the present research project is how we could better understand which relevant concepts of social cohesion in African societies are particularly emphasised by African scholars and how “Western” concepts of social cohesion relate to the various African academic approaches to the topic. Further research questions that were raised in the context of the present paper are:
• How can traditional knowledge and African social theories contribute towards contextualising the debate on social cohesion in Africa?
• What are the key aspects of the concepts of social cohesion in selected African countries, and how can these be analysed?
• How did pre-colonial societies in Africa understand social cohesion, and what insights can be gained from this?
Methodologically, we identify and analyse concepts within the African context in order to gain insights into basic elements of social cohesion. This literature review draws on different sources such as ethnophilosophy, political philosophy, religion, culture, economics and international discourses. This literature review is the first part of an assessment of concepts of social cohesion in Africa. It is followed by a systematic comparison of social cohesion concepts in specific African countries.
The academic benefit is to identify the current state of research on social cohesion in Africa, to identify the need for further research and to deepen the understanding of the phenomenon of social cohesion. In addition, we aim to deliver developmental value through these publications by helping decision-makers come to evidence-based decisions and synthesise as well as make use of scientific evidence for development practice.

The social fragmentation of societies is one of the greatest challenges for peace, democracy and human rights worldwide. For some years now, observers have been witnessing ever-stronger tendencies towards social division, also in Western societies, which had been believed to be united for so long. Rising inequality, the rejection of previously shared values and growing scepticism towards public institutions suggest that social cohesion is at risk. Against this background, it seems more important than ever to understand what factors hold a society together – and when such cohesion is most vulnerable. Protecting and strengthening social cohesion has therefore become an objective of many activities at the local, national and international levels, and academics have started to develop methodologies on how to measure social cohesion (see, with further references: Leininger et al., 2021).
This paper aims:
• to give a systematic overview of the literature on African concepts of social cohesion;
• to introduce the discourse around African concepts and to see which relevant concepts of social cohesion can be located in African societies;
• to analyse in more detail some key African concepts and their core elements and to see which conceptual dimensions and insights on determinants of social cohesion differ from the mainstream, while inviting scholars to add further to this listing; and, in particular
• to gain a better understanding of the academic discourse on social cohesion in Africa by analysing the concepts, determinants, origins and context of social cohesion theories as well as the risk of Western bias in identifying concepts for social cohesion in the African context.
One of the questions that inspired the present research project is how we could better understand which relevant concepts of social cohesion in African societies are particularly emphasised by African scholars and how “Western” concepts of social cohesion relate to the various African academic approaches to the topic. Further research questions that were raised in the context of the present paper are:
• How can traditional knowledge and African social theories contribute towards contextualising the debate on social cohesion in Africa?
• What are the key aspects of the concepts of social cohesion in selected African countries, and how can these be analysed?
• How did pre-colonial societies in Africa understand social cohesion, and what insights can be gained from this?
Methodologically, we identify and analyse concepts within the African context in order to gain insights into basic elements of social cohesion. This literature review draws on different sources such as ethnophilosophy, political philosophy, religion, culture, economics and international discourses. This literature review is the first part of an assessment of concepts of social cohesion in Africa. It is followed by a systematic comparison of social cohesion concepts in specific African countries.
The academic benefit is to identify the current state of research on social cohesion in Africa, to identify the need for further research and to deepen the understanding of the phenomenon of social cohesion. In addition, we aim to deliver developmental value through these publications by helping decision-makers come to evidence-based decisions and synthesise as well as make use of scientific evidence for development practice.

The social fragmentation of societies is one of the greatest challenges for peace, democracy and human rights worldwide. For some years now, observers have been witnessing ever-stronger tendencies towards social division, also in Western societies, which had been believed to be united for so long. Rising inequality, the rejection of previously shared values and growing scepticism towards public institutions suggest that social cohesion is at risk. Against this background, it seems more important than ever to understand what factors hold a society together – and when such cohesion is most vulnerable. Protecting and strengthening social cohesion has therefore become an objective of many activities at the local, national and international levels, and academics have started to develop methodologies on how to measure social cohesion (see, with further references: Leininger et al., 2021).
This paper aims:
• to give a systematic overview of the literature on African concepts of social cohesion;
• to introduce the discourse around African concepts and to see which relevant concepts of social cohesion can be located in African societies;
• to analyse in more detail some key African concepts and their core elements and to see which conceptual dimensions and insights on determinants of social cohesion differ from the mainstream, while inviting scholars to add further to this listing; and, in particular
• to gain a better understanding of the academic discourse on social cohesion in Africa by analysing the concepts, determinants, origins and context of social cohesion theories as well as the risk of Western bias in identifying concepts for social cohesion in the African context.
One of the questions that inspired the present research project is how we could better understand which relevant concepts of social cohesion in African societies are particularly emphasised by African scholars and how “Western” concepts of social cohesion relate to the various African academic approaches to the topic. Further research questions that were raised in the context of the present paper are:
• How can traditional knowledge and African social theories contribute towards contextualising the debate on social cohesion in Africa?
• What are the key aspects of the concepts of social cohesion in selected African countries, and how can these be analysed?
• How did pre-colonial societies in Africa understand social cohesion, and what insights can be gained from this?
Methodologically, we identify and analyse concepts within the African context in order to gain insights into basic elements of social cohesion. This literature review draws on different sources such as ethnophilosophy, political philosophy, religion, culture, economics and international discourses. This literature review is the first part of an assessment of concepts of social cohesion in Africa. It is followed by a systematic comparison of social cohesion concepts in specific African countries.
The academic benefit is to identify the current state of research on social cohesion in Africa, to identify the need for further research and to deepen the understanding of the phenomenon of social cohesion. In addition, we aim to deliver developmental value through these publications by helping decision-makers come to evidence-based decisions and synthesise as well as make use of scientific evidence for development practice.

Die Abteilung Makroökonomie beschäftigt sich mit der Wirkung von Geld- und Fiskalpolitik unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Finanzmärkte in Europa. Dazu gehört deren Auswirkung auf die Einkommens- und Vermögensverteilung, aber auch die Rolle der Politiken im Klimawandel.

Die Abteilung Makroökonomie sucht zum nächstmöglichen Zeitpunkt eine*n

Promovierte*n Wissenschaftler*n (w/m/div) (Vollzeit, Teilzeit geeignet)

 

Diese Stelle ist zur wissenschaftlichen Qualifizierung gemäß § 2 (1) WissZeitVG geeignet.

Das DIW Berlin sucht zum nächstmöglichen Zeitpunkt in der Abteilung Finanzen eine*n

Vergabe- und Vertragsreferent*in (w/m/div) (Vollzeit mit 39 Stunden pro Woche, Teilzeit ist möglich)

 Die Abteilung Finanzen ist zuständig für die Verwaltung des Haushalts inkl. Rechnungswesen, Steuerangelegenheiten, Beschaffung und Reisekosten.

Bonn, 20. November 2023. Der Krieg in Gaza, den die Hamas am 7. Oktober begonnen hat, wird wahrscheinlich keinen Sieger haben. Nur ein sofortiger und andauernder Waffenstillstand kann das Leiden der Zivilbevölkerung beenden und die Freilassung der Geiseln ermöglichen. Die Planung für die Zeit danach muss jetzt beginnen, damit sich ein solch schrecklicher Krieg nicht wiederholt.

Dazu bedarf es einer politischen Lösung, um die gegenseitige Gewalt im Nahostkonflikt zu beenden, und eines intensiven Staatsaufbauprogramms für Palästina. Die Vereinigten Staaten als Israels wichtigster Beschützer und Sponsor werden beide Prozesse unterstützen müssen. Auch die europäischen Regierungen und die EU haben eine wichtige Rolle zu spielen.

Politisch gesehen hat der Gaza-Krieg die Szenarien für die künftigen israelisch-palästinensischen Beziehungen in den Mittelpunkt gerückt. Paradoxerweise hat der Krieg die Zwei-Staaten-Lösung wahrscheinlicher gemacht, während Ein-Staaten-Szenarien zunehmend unrealistisch erscheinen.

Israelische Extremisten träumen schon lange von einer Einstaatenlösung, bei der die Palästinenser aus dem Gazastreifen und dem Westjordanland nach Ägypten und Jordanien vertrieben würden. Diese Position hat sich in den letzten Jahren in Israel immer mehr durchgesetzt, da ihre Befürworter sogar der Regierung angehören. Abgesehen von den moralischen und rechtlichen Implikationen, die Zerstörung Palästinas liegt nicht im Interesse Israels. Ägypten und Jordanien haben eine klare Haltung zu den palästinensischen Flüchtlingen, und israelische Versuche, sie auszuweisen, würden ihre Friedensverträge gefährden. Jegliche Hoffnung auf eine Normalisierung der Beziehungen zur arabischen Welt würde zunichte gemacht, und die langfristige Sicherheit und Unabhängigkeit Israels wäre grundlegend gefährdet. Außerdem würde ein solcher Schritt große Proteste in den westlichen Ländern auslösen und damit die Unterstützung der westlichen Regierungen für die Sicherheit Israels und sogar dessen Legitimität gefährden.

Die andere, von Liberalen erträumte Einstaatenlösung, bei der Juden, Muslime und Christen in einer multiethnischen Demokratie zusammenleben, ist noch unwahrscheinlicher. Der Gaza-Krieg hat die jüngsten Forderungen nach einer säkularen Demokratie als hoffnungslose Utopie erscheinen lassen. In jedem Fall hat die demografische Realität der wachsenden palästinensischen Bevölkerung Debatten darüber ausgelöst, ob der jüdische Staat und die Demokratie in dem von Israel kontrollierten Gebiet vereinbar sind.

Der Gaza-Krieg hat auch gezeigt, dass das derzeitige Szenario, in dem Israel die palästinensischen Gebiete besetzt hält und die Grenzen, die Bewegungsfreiheit, die Einkommensquellen und die Wohnungen der Palästinenser kontrolliert, unhaltbar ist. Es sieht allmählich nach einer Minderheitenherrschaft Israels über eine größere palästinensische Bevölkerung aus, die zunehmend auf Repression angewiesen ist. Der Besatzung ist es nicht gelungen, die Palästinenser zu unterwerfen, sondern sie hat ein Umfeld geschaffen, in dem eine terroristische Organisation wie die Hamas gedeihen könnte und sich zu einer ernsthaften Bedrohung für Israel entwickelt hat.

Alles, was bleibt, ist eine Zweistaatenlösung in den Grenzen von 1967, wie sie in den Osloer Abkommen von 1993 vereinbart wurde. Dafür müssen die israelischen Siedler das Westjordanland verlassen. Andere Streitpunkte, einschließlich des Status von Jerusalem als heilige Stadt für alle Nachkommen Abrahams, müssen einvernehmlich gelöst werden.

Den Vereinigten Staaten kommt die Hauptrolle bei der Aushandlung einer Zweistaatenlösung zu. Europa wird aufgrund seiner Nähe und seines Wohlstands eine wichtige Rolle dabei spielen, dass diese Lösung Bestand hat. Die meisten EU-Mitgliedstaaten unterstützen das Szenario, auch wenn dies heute in weiter Ferne zu liegen scheint.

Immense Anstrengungen sind nötig, um langfristig den Staatsaufbau und damit den Frieden zu sichern – und der europäischen Entwicklungspolitik kommt dabei eine wichtige Rolle zu. Eine internationale Entwicklungskonferenz über die Zukunft Palästinas sollte so bald wie möglich stattfinden. Es muss eine Reihe von Prioritäten vereinbart werden. Am dringlichsten ist eine Strategie zum Aufbau einer palästinensischen politischen Führung und von Regierungsinstitutionen, wahrscheinlich unter Aufsicht der UN. Weiter sind Pläne für den Wiederaufbau, die Infrastruktur und Investitionen erforderlich, einschließlich der physischen Verbindungen zwischen dem Gazastreifen und dem Westjordanland, der Unterstützung des sozialen Zusammenhalts nach dem Konflikt und für die wichtigsten Wirtschaftssektoren, auch mit Hilfe eines neuen Handelsabkommens mit der EU. Finanzmittel müssen bereit stehen und Partner aus dem öffentlichen und privaten Sektor im Westen, in Asien und in der arabischen Welt mobilisiert sein.

Keine dieser Bedingungen für eine politische Zweistaatenlösung und einen Staatsaufbau für Palästina ist neu oder radikal. Sie spiegeln bestehende Verpflichtungen Israels, der Palästinensischen Autonomiebehörde, der Vereinigten Staaten, der EU und ihrer Mitgliedstaaten sowie der arabischen Nachbarn Israels wider. Der Gaza-Krieg hat gezeigt, dass diese Verpflichtungen den einzigen vernünftigen Ausweg aus der Gewaltspirale zwischen Israelis und Palästinensern bieten. Es ist an der Zeit, dass die europäischen Regierungen und die EU Israelis und Palästinenser dabei unterstützen, eine Zweistaatenlösung zu verwirklichen.