Diplomacy & Crisis News

Michael Rubin

Security, Middle East

The late Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden famously said, “When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse.” By that standard, locals no longer consider Hezbollah a thoroughbred racehorse, but rather a lame pony.

NABATIEH, LEBANON—Hezbollah flags fly from lampposts and billboards feature the faces of Hezbollah members killed in action in this southern Lebanese town which, by some estimates, is now Lebanon’s fifth-largest. Bearded men belonging to the group drive around the streets in new BMWs whose lack of license plates reaffirms their position above Lebanese law. 

Nabatieh is Hezbollah’s heartland, less than fifteen miles from Lebanon’s border with Israel. When Israel occupied a southern Lebanon buffer zone, Nabatieh was just outside and so a frontline post for Hezbollah. During the Operation Grapes of Wrath (or the “April War” as Hezbollah calls it), Israel bombed sites in the city. Israel’s unilateral withdrawal in May 2000 bolstered Hezbollah by transforming it into the first Arab force to defeat the Jewish state in war. Hezbollah—and Nabatieh—both suffered during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War but the end to hostilities and Hezbollah’s subsequent rearmament against allowed the Iranian-backed militia to depict itself as strong.

Sitting at a tea house on the outskirts of town, locals—including veterans of the fight against Israel—now tell a different story. There are three types of Hezbollah members now, they say. The first are the true ideologues, the second initially embraced Hezbollah’s mission but are now embarrassed by its actions and antics, and the third just signed up for the money.  

All have trouble reconciling the group’s rhetoric with reality. While once Hezbollah slogans written on banners and plastered on billboards promised security and prosperity, today locals have neither. Hezbollah members may still receive salaries far above the local rate, but Iran’s financial troubles and subsequent diminishment of its subsidies to Hezbollah lead the group to half their payments leading to grumbling from within and ridicule from without.

The true ideologues, meanwhile, who once painted themselves as the vanguard of a new order must now explain how they and Iran remain impotent in the face of the U.S. assassination of Iranian Quds Force chief Qassim Suleimani on January 3, 2020, and, more recently, the death of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the father of Iran’s covert nuclear weapons program, who was assassinated on November 27. Iran, many locals and Western journalists are attributing the assassination to Israel. Iranian leaders and Hezbollah swore they would revenge both attacks but they have been unable to do anything but have like-minded proxies fire a few missiles at U.S. forces and facilities in Iraq, most of which missed or did little damage.

Locals also point to the four thousand Hezbollah members dead in Syria and question not only why an organization that depicted itself as a Lebanese nationalist not only allowed its members to serve as mercenaries for Iran and President Bashar al-Assad in Syria but also why they fared so poorly as they did so. Some ridiculed Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah as a fifth Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle since he must be hiding out in the sewers of Beirut’s southern suburbs in fear that if he emerges in person, he will quickly join Soleimani and Fakhrizadeh. 

Importantly, citizens in Nabatieh and other towns controlled by Hezbollah or its rival-turned-ally Amal are no longer limiting their criticisms to whispered conversations. Protests erupted last October against the political elite in Lebanon, and young Lebanese—men and women—from Nabatieh joined them. Women took off their scarves and men removed their face masks. Simply put, as Hezbollah becomes a shell of its former self, locals are losing their fear. There is a certain irony that in Washington, DC, Democrats loudly and Republicans a bit more softly suggest that the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran to be a failure, but in the heart of Hezbollah country, residents tell a different story. Hezbollah is cash-poor, resented, and has lost its luster.

The late Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden famously said, “When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature they will like the strong horse.” By that standard, locals no longer consider Hezbollah a thoroughbred racehorse, but rather a lame pony. The question moving forward is whether the Biden administration, in its animosity to President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by pumping resources into the Islamic Republic of Iran, a gravy train which will benefit not ordinary Iranians or the citizens of southern Lebanese towns like Nabatieh, but rather groups like Hezbollah who locals say are a shadow of their former selves. 

Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a frequent author for TNI. 

Ethen Kim Lieser

Technology, Americas

The best-selling items included Amazon’s new Echo Dot, one of several products made by the company and discounted during the holiday season, former President Barack Obama’s latest book, A Promised Land, the Revlon One-Step Hair Dryer and Volumizer Hot Air Brush, and the Lite-Brite Ultimate Classic.

As the months-long coronavirus pandemic has forced more people than ever to do their shopping online, Amazon has indeed become the destination of choice.

Driven largely by online sales during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the e-commerce giant has announced that this year's holiday shopping season was the biggest in the company’s history.

Amazon did not provide specific financial figures on how much was spent during Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

The retailer, though, did note that independent businesses selling on the platform surpassed $4.8 billion in worldwide sales between the two large-scale shopping events—a surge of 60 percent from last year. It added that more than seventy thousand small and medium-sized businesses were able to enjoy sales of more than $100,000 in this holiday season.

“In a holiday season unlike any other, it’s clear that customers still want great deals on gifts for their loved ones or a little something extra for themselves, and we’re glad to help deliver smiles throughout the season,” Jeff Wilke, the chief executive officer of Amazon Worldwide Consumer, said in a blog post.

“Thank you to our customers, employees, and selling partners around the world for making this our biggest holiday season to date, and for everything you’re doing to support our communities and each other now and throughout the year.”

The best-selling items included Amazon’s new Echo Dot, one of several products made by the company and discounted during the holiday season, former President Barack Obama’s latest book, A Promised Land, the Revlon One-Step Hair Dryer and Volumizer Hot Air Brush, and the Lite-Brite Ultimate Classic.

With the pandemic on the minds of most people across the country, Black Friday foot traffic in stores cratered 52.1 percent compared to last year, according to Sensormatic Solutions. However, with a record number of consumers pivoting to shopping on computers and smartphones instead, online spending surged nearly 22 percent to hit $9 billion, according to data from Adobe Analytics.

Consumers spent $6.3 million per minute shopping online on Black Friday—or $27.50 on average per person. About $3.6 billion was spent via smartphones, a 25.3 percent increase compared to last year, reaching 40 percent of all online spending.

As for Cyber Monday, consumers opened their wallets to the tune of $10.8 billion, setting a record for the largest internet shopping day ever in the United States. Spending climbed 15.1 percent compared to the year prior, according to Adobe, which cut its online sales forecast for the entire holiday season to $184 billion—still a hefty 30 percent increase from last year. The original forecast called for sales of $189 billion.

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Minneapolis-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn.  

Image: Reuters

Daniel R. DePetris

Politics, Asia

Beijing has many reasons to keep Pyongyang afloat.

In what will very likely be the last major speech on North Korea before the Trump administration leaves office, deputy U.S. envoy Alex Wong delivered remarks to the Center for Strategic and International Studies on November 30. The topic: the current state of the U.S.-North Korea dialogue. The prognosis was grim; the Kim dynasty, Wong said, has demonstrated no interest whatsoever in implementing the Singapore joint statement President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed in June 2018.

The speech, however, was just as much about China as it was about North Korea—or more to the point, China’s refusal to abide by the numerous U.N. Security Council sanctions it voted for over the last fourteen years. Wong was emphatic that the Chinese are not only turning their eyes from illicit North Korean coal exports in their territorial waters, but are actually deliberately hampering the U.N. sanctions regime. “I’ve spoken with enough Chinese diplomats to understand clearly what course of action the Chinese government is advocating,” Wong told the think-tank. “They are seeking to undo the UN sanctions regime they themselves voted for in 2006, in 2009, in 2013, in 2016, and in 2017.”

Beijing choosing to relax their sanctions enforcement, of course, is not unprecedented. Indeed, it would be more extraordinary if Chinese custom officials searched every box coming to and from North Korea or the Chinese navy intercepted every cargo ship carrying North Korean coal or seafood. What was interesting, however, was that Wong had concrete numbers to share. “On 46 separate occasions going back to 2019,” the deputy envoy said, “U.S. vessels provided information to nearby Chinese Navy or Coast Guard vessels that ships involved in DPRK fuel smuggling were fleeing into Chinese coastal waters. The Chinese authorities did nothing to stop these vessels in response. Not once.” The Chinese Communist Party, it appears, has made a concerted decision that it will let its North Korean neighbor export and import whatever it needs to survive at a time when the Kim dynasty is undergoing the triple-whammy of coronavirus-related restrictions, weather events, and U.S.-led sanctions. 

We can speculate as to why China is doing this. The most obvious reason cited is that the Chinese crave stability along their border and recognize that some level of trade with the North is required in order to stem an extreme humanitarian crisis. But one can’t help but notice that China’s lax sanctions enforcement is also occurring during a period when Beijing’s relationship with the United States is getting worse for the wear. It is highly likely China is using North Korea as a card in its wider competition with Washington.

Why is this relevant? Because President-elect Joe Biden’s entire North Korea strategy is predicated on the notion that his administration will be able to pressure or encourage the Chinese to crank up the economic pressure on the North and thereby force Kim into a new nuclear negotiation. Biden has made this link on numerous occasions throughout the presidential campaign, including during a Democratic presidential debate back in January. “I met with Xi Jinping more than anyone else,” Biden said at the time. “I would be putting pressure on China to put pressure on Korea, to cease and desist from their nuclear power...their efforts to deal with nuclear weapons.” The then-presidential candidate offered up a similar answer during his last presidential debate with Trump, recalling a time when as vice president he told Chinese President Xi Jinping that he would have to “step up and help” on the North Korea issue if he didn’t like what Washington was doing in the region.

Collaborating with China to tighten the economic screws on Pyongyang has been a bipartisan strategy that multiple U.S. administrations have tapped into since at least George W. Bush. Given North Korea’s dependence on China for approximately 90% of its total trade, it only makes sense for U.S. policymakers to probe whether their Chinese counterparts are willing to assist. Yet the Chinese have never believed bankrupting the Kim dynasty is a particularly effective way of increasing the odds of getting a denuclearization agreement or promoting peace and stability in their region. China can live with a nuclear-armed North Korea—what it can’t live with is millions of desperate, hungry North Koreans streaming across the border. 

Convincing China to cooperate on North Korea is tough on a good day. But it’s likely to be downright impossible when Washington and Beijing are on the opposite side of so many issues, from trade and technology to the South China Sea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Joe Biden’s North Korea policy is in effect anchored by a mirage—that a willing Xi Jinping will be a key partner in Washington’s maximum pressure campaign against the North. 

To be fair, Biden has yet to roll out an official North Korea policy. All we have at the moment are his words on the campaign trail. The Biden administration will do what other U.S. administrations have done since time immortal: launch a months-long inter-agency review in order to determine what U.S. objectives on the Korean Peninsula are, what combination of tools are appropriate to realizing those objectives, and how the administration will go about negotiating with the Kim dynasty. Back in Pyongyang, Kim Jong-un will be watching, waiting, and wondering whether the new U.S. commander in chief will offer up a different strategy from what previous presidents have settled on over the last thirty years.

Daniel R. DePetris is a columnist at Newsweek and a contributor to the National Interest.

Image: Reuters.

Jason Bartlett

Security, Asia

How legit was the alleged $3.2 million fuel and weapons deal?

The Mole: Undercover in North Korea is a ten-year sting operation documenting an alleged $3.2 million fuel products and arms deal in 2018 with constituents from North Korea, Jordan, and Uganda. Aired on the BCC and Nordic television in early October, this documentary immediately received a mixture of praise and speculation. While the credibility of the documentary itself is highly contested, the plausibility of North Korea evading U.S. and United Nations sanctions by selling weapons and narcotics through a third-party to non-sanction-abiding nations is unquestionable. 

For years, North Korea has sought overseas assistance to facilitate weapons and drug trade under the radar of U.S. and UN economic sanctions through ally countries and foreign nationals. Examples include a fifty-ton shipment of North Korean industrial-scale chemical weapons to Syria in 2016, a multinational attempt to bring 100kg of North Korean methamphetamine into the United States through British, Chinese, and Filipino dealers in 2013, an attempt to sell anti-aircraft missiles to Azerbaijan through a British arms dealer in 2012, a 20kg shipment of North Korean methamphetamine in Thailand in 2012, a secret North Korea-designed nuclear reactor built in the Syrian Desert in 2007, and $100 million building projects in Namibia starting in 2002. The alleged illicit arms deal featured in this documentary accurately depicts North Korea’s ability to exploit global corruption and third-party criminals to its benefit under strict economic sanctions. 

In The Mole, sleeper agent Ulrich Larsen gained access to several alleged North Korean government officials through befriending Alejandro Cao de Benós, the founder of the Korean Friendship Association (KFA), a pro-North Korea international organization stationed in Spain. The proposed arms deal involved a $3.2 million contract, exchanging oil and petroleum with ballistic missiles and “pharmaceuticals/medicines” heavily implied to be methamphetamine. Signed in Pyongyang, the contract bore the signature of Kim Ryong Chol, the president of the Korea Narae Trading Corporation. The UN Panel of Experts August 2020 report described Kim as heavily involved in overseas North Korean proliferation finance efforts. The contract stipulated that “Narae will build the equipment factory in a third country to manufacture “military equipment and medicines” and “provide the technical staff to operate the factory.” This is a clear violation of global sanctions on North Korea as the purchase and distribution of weapons is outlawed through various UN resolutions and U.S. Executive Orders. 

The alleged triangular trade deal was planned in typical North Korean sanction-busting fashion. First, the third-party, who was one of the undercover agents unbeknownst to North Korea, will purchase the oil and petroleum on behalf of North Korea from a Jordanian businessman, Hisham El Dasouki of the Aktham Trading Establishment. Second, Hisham will illegally export the fuel products through his contacts in Russia, Dubai, and Jordan to North Korea via maritime trade obfuscation practices. In his own words: “Each time I export to [North] Korea, when I come back, I change the name of the ship….when you import or export, don’t sail your ship directly. There must be a point to stop and change documents, and then go.” After North Korea receives the fuel products, the third-party will then travel to Pyongyang under the guise of delivering humanitarian aid and load all the “contracted items” onto an aircraft before flying to the secret location in the third country. 

The North Korean officials chose Africa as the ideal location for a secret weapons factory but opted against Namibia due to UN pressure levied on the country for past sanctions violations related to illicit North Korean activity. If true, this represents both a victory and defeat for UN sanctions. According to this documentary, although North Korea no longer considers Namibia an ideal hotspot for sanctions noncompliance, it simply chose a less legally abiding nation in the same region, Uganda. Unless all UN Member States comply with UN sanctions, there will always be vulnerabilities for North Korea to exploit. 

The third-party then traveled to Uganda on behalf of North Korea to strike a deal with local officials and real estate brokers to purchase a secluded Ugandan island for $5 million USD. During the meeting, a Ugandan real estate broker informed the moles that he falsely told the island residents that they will build a hospital to control social unrest while constructing the facility. This is another indication of how widespread corruption and weak legal framework contribute to North Korea’s ability to evade even the strictest of economic sanctions. 

The documentary concludes with the mole, Ulrich Larsen, and the filmmaker, Mads Brügger, video calling their initial contact in the KFA from Denmark to inform him of their plan to expose North Korea’s global illicit activity. Their contact then immediately ends the call. Both Larsen and Brügger are currently in correspondence with the United Nations to discuss their alleged findings. Regardless of its disputed credibility, this documentary accurately represented the elaborate and innovative methods North Korea uses to evade U.S. and UN sanctions abroad. No other documentary has captured the international breadth of North Korea’s illicit arms and drug trade. When imposing economic sanctions against North Korea, U.S. policymakers should consider the plausibility of enforcing these measures abroad in regions where corruption and weak legal framework give room for continued illicit activity. 

Jason Bartlett is a Research Assistant for the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). He previously worked at CSIS Korea Chair and the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. He tweets at @jasonabartlett. 

Image: Reuters.

Stephen Silver

Technology, Americas

The dispute between Dish and Nexstar affects even more stations, 164 around the country, and if the parties don’t reach an agreement by the Wednesday deadline, it will go down as the largest blackout of its kind in history. 

Heading into this week, both of the major satellite TV services, DirecTV and Dish Network, were facing deadlines for carriage agreements with owners of TV stations that could result in subscribers losing large numbers of channels.

Now, the DirecTV dispute with one of the companies, Tegna, has resulted in those channels disappearing, from both that satellite service and its sister service AT&T U-Verse. The sides failed to reach an agreement prior to the deadline Tuesday night. 

The blackout affects sixty-four stations in fifty-one markets, which are affiliates for all different networks, including NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox and The CW, depending on the market.

“Unfortunately, DIRECTV and AT&T U-Verse have not reached an agreement with TEGNA to keep our stations on the air,” Tegna’s Twitter account tweeted late Tuesday. “As we continue negotiating in good faith, you can watch your TEGNA station on other local providers or streaming services. And we’re always free over-the-air.” 

AT&T, the owner of DirecTV, responded in that tweet’s replies. 

“We can assure you we have every intention of getting TEGNA’s stations back as soon as possible, but the law grants TEGNA exclusive control over which homes can have their channels,” the account said. "We share your frustration and appreciate your patience.”

Also in the replies, one man complained that the blackout may cause him to miss Alex Trebek’s final shows as the host of “Jeopardy!,” which were recorded prior to the beloved host’s death last month. 

“In the midst of an ongoing pandemic, Tegna is demanding the largest rate increase we have ever seen and intentionally blacking out its most loyal viewers,” AT&T said in a separate statement to several media outlets.

“We challenge Tegna to return its local stations immediately while we finalize a new agreement and pledge to pay Tegna retroactively whatever higher rates to which we eventually agree. We share our customers’ frustration, appreciate their patience and intend to do all we can to resolve this matter soon.”

According to its brands page, Tegna owns such stations as WUSA in Washington, DC, WATL in Atlanta, KUSA and KTVD in Denver, Colorado, KSDK in St. Louis, Missouri, WCNC in Charlotte, South Carolina, KARE in Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota, KPNX in Phoenix, WWL in New Orleans, Louisianna, KHOU in Houston, Texas, KING and KONG in Seattle, Washington, and WFAA in Dallas, Texas. The company also owns the True Crime Network. 

DirecTV also faces the loss of its NFL Sunday Ticket package, although it maintains exclusivity through the end of the 2022 NFL season. 

The dispute between Dish and Nexstar affects even more stations, 164 around the country, and if the parties don’t reach an agreement by the Wednesday deadline, it will go down as the largest blackout of its kind in history. 

Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

Image: Reuters

Caleb Larson

Security, Asia

It’s the latest in a recent flurry of construction aimed at bolstering the United States’ Pacific presence.

A local Mariana Islands newspaper recently quoted the Governor of the Northern Mariana Islands regarding an Air Force divert airport planned for Tinian, a part of the Northern Mariana island chain, saying, “it’s happening.”

Previously, the Department of Defense had signed a $21.9 million, forty-year lease with the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands government. The 2019 construction deal’s goal was airport infrastructure modernization, including running a fuel pipeline from the seaport to the airport, and expanding Tinian’s airstrip to allow for more and heavier aircraft to land with the intention of facilitating smoother aerial tanker refueling.

Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

The CNMI, more commonly known as the Mariana Islands, form the westernmost point of United States territory. As such, the group of islands jut outward into the Pacific nearly 4,000 miles west of Hawaii.

Currently, the United States has a large military presence on Guam, (geographically part of the Mariana Islands, but administratively separate), including a brand-new Marine Corps base named Camp Blaz. Blaz is the first new USMC base in nearly seventy-five years, and a place that 5,000 Marines will eventually call home.

Andersen Air Force base, also located on Guam, is one of the most important air bases in the western Pacific, and is also the only base west of Hawaii that is capable of servicing the United States’ strategic bomber platforms: the B-1 Lancer, B-2, and B-52. Naval Base Guam is the naval component of the Joint Region Marianas, the region’s management authority.

Tinian

Located about 120 miles northeast of Guam, Tinian is well-positioned as a divert airfield. In that secondary capacity, Tinian’s expanded facilities could be used in the event that support infrastructure on Guam is not available, due to a natural disaster—or war.

A 2016 article published by Stars and Stripes, an American military newspaper, quoted the then Chief of Staff of the Air Force, who stated that “The divert initiative in CNMI will create the only divert airfield in the Western Pacific and provide the U.S. Air Force the capability to conduct either temporary or sustained refueling operations from an additional location in the region… It will also give us another location to use when supporting contingency or natural disaster responses in the region.”

Postscript

Exactly when the expanded Tinian airstrip and infrastructure will be finished is unclear, though one thing is sure: the United States is rapidly expanding its Pacific presence at a time when tensions with China are rising. And in the event of a conflict, Guam and Tinian could likely form the tip of the American military spear.

Caleb Larson is a Defense Writer with The National Interest. He holds a Master of Public Policy and covers U.S. and Russian security, European defense issues, and German politics and culture.

Image: Reuters.

Ethen Kim Lieser

Health, Americas

Nearly a third of Americans will likely be infected with the virus by the end of 2020. 

The nation’s top infectious disease expert is anticipating a “surge upon a surge” of coronavirus cases just weeks away from Christmas and New Year’s Eve.

“If you look across the United States, we are really in a public health crisis right now,” White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci told Colorado Gov. Jared Polis during a livestream session on Tuesday.  

“Now that we’re in the mid- to late fall, merging on into the winter, we’ve seen, because a variety of circumstances, a surge that has really surpassed the others.”

Despite stern calls from health officials to stay home over the holiday, more than 9.4 million people were screened in the Thanksgiving travel period, which started on the Friday before the holiday, according to data from the Transportation Security Administration. On Sunday alone, when many Americans were returning home from their Thanksgiving travels, the TSA revealed that it screened 1.17 million people.

Since the pandemic ground air travel to a halt in mid-March, checkpoints have screened more than one million passengers in only five days. Four of those days came over the Thanksgiving holiday period.

Given the high number of people who traveled and shared meals in close proximity with family and friends, the United States will likely see a “surge upon a surge” in new cases, Fauci said.

“One of the things that you should keep your eye on is that as we get two to three weeks beyond the Thanksgiving holiday, that it is likely . . . you’re going to start seeing the curve that had gone to flatten out go back up again, unless people really have done a considerable degree of mitigating,” the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases added.

More troubling is the fact that cases were already rising before the Thanksgiving holiday and that trend has only continued. 

New daily cases in the country recently reached a grim single-day record of 200,000, and the rolling seven-day average of new cases is now more than 160,000. Florida on Tuesday became the third state to surpass one million confirmed cases, joining Texas and California.

On Monday, former U.S. Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb warned that nearly a third of Americans will likely be infected with the virus by the end of 2020.  

In all, there are roughly 13.8 million confirmed coronavirus infections in the United States, along with 271,000 related deaths. The virus is now killing, on average, more than 1,400 people each day in the country, according to the latest data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.  

“This is something that is quite problematic, and to say it’s challenging is to really say the least,” Fauci said.   

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Minneapolis-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn.  

Image: Reuters

Kris Osborn

Security, Asia

In fact, Beijing might not even be able to land troops.

China is again threatening Taiwan with amphibious attack through a series of live-fire maritime warfare operations. Those military exercises utilized Type 022 stealth missile boats, Type 071 amphibious dock landing ships and landing craft. All of those units operated in tandem to demonstrate assault landing operational exercises. 

The exercise, which took place Nov. 18, “could be simulating a mission to land on a large island or a large group of islands and reefs,” a story in the Chinese government-backed Global Times reports. 

All of this raises a pressing and interesting question in light of recent Chinese comments about forcible reunification with Taiwan: just how quickly could an attacking Chinese Navy amphibious assault force take over Taiwan? It is certainly a question now commanding a large amount of attention among Taiwanese and U.S. military planners, who might be looking at a number of key dynamics impacting this equation.

First, any kind of Chinese movement toward Taiwan with amphibious attack assets would seen and closely monitored by Taiwanese, U.S. and other allied surveillance assets in the area. This surveillance would give commanders and those wishing to defend Taiwan an opportunity to plan and respond. Would China be able to make any kind of a successful initial entry or incursion before the U.S. Navy would have an opportunity to react with sufficient defensive power? 

To this question I would likely say no, for several reasons. Long range sensors, satellites and surveillance assets are not only regularly operating in the region in large numbers, but they are reaching new levels of technological sophistication when it comes to image fidelity, targeting and, most of all, newer kinds of hardened networking. This circumstance, which would draw upon Low Earth Orbit satellites, high altitude surveillance planes, ground based radar and sensor nodes from surface ships and aircraft, would likely make it next to impossible for any kind of closely approaching Chinese force to attack uncontested. Why? The answer is one word: weapons. 

Ship or submarine launched Tomahawk missiles can now pinpoint moving targets at sea from ranges as far as 900 miles, land-fired rockets could easily reach well into the 140-mile gap separating mainland China from Taiwan, and given Taiwan’s proximity, U.S. fighter jets from Guam or other allied territories in the region would be well within any kind of striking range. Fighter jets, anti-ship missiles and even land-fired artillery could travel far enough and long enough to disrupt, and even possibly destroy, key elements of an attacking Chinese amphibious force. China could not assume air superiority, nor can surface ships move fast enough to outpace fighter jets racing faster than the speed of sound to attack approaching amphibious forces. 

In the event that a Chinese amphibious force got close to shore, it would likely confront additional impediments, such as new Taiwanese submarines and Abrams tanks. The concept would be to stall, disrupt and destroy enough of any attacking amphibious force to in effect buy time until larger numbers of allied defenders can arrive. 

Kris Osborn is the defense editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.

Image: Reuters.

Stephen Silver

Public Health, Asia

Famine, mismanagement, a crack down on smuggling, and international sanctions are all taking their toll.

Conditions have gotten so bad in parts of North Korea, due to rising prices and government crackdowns on coronavirus, that a homeless family of four reportedly froze to death in front of Musan Station in N. Hamgyong Province.

That’s according to a report published this week by Daily NK, which also stated that “an unprecedented atmosphere of unease has reportedly taken hold in the region.” These include massive inflation, coinciding with the North Korea campaign’s “80-Day Battle” propaganda campaign.

The story, which cited a source in the providence, stated that conditions have deteriorated in the province, due to tightened control due to the pandemic, as well as “pestering by the Ministry of State Security and Ministry of Social Security,” which have prevented the type of smuggling that often makes economic activity and survival in the region possible.

In addition, those with foreign currency are hoarding it, leading to much less cash circulating in the local economy.

North Korea, per an AP story in mid-November, has been waging a labor campaign described as “The 80-Day Battle” since October, ahead of the ruling party congress that’s set for January. The campaign entails increased work in all areas of the country, in order to fill higher-than-usual quotas.

But indications are that the campaign has backfired, at least in North Hamgyong Providence.

“With the situation being what it is, people are spending less and tightening their belts, despite going hungry,” Daily NK’s source said. “There are even wretched scenes of entire families starving to death in the streets, as poor residents have no choice but to sit around hungry.”

This was what led to the death of the family of four at Musan Station, which reportedly happened on November 24. Upon learning of the deaths, per the report, a patrol team arrived and took the bodies to an undisclosed location. The report also said that the cries of children have become ever-present around that station.

North Hamgyong Province is North Korea’s northernmost province, bordered by China in the North and West and the Sea of Japan to the East.

Another report earlier this week stated that North Korea’s First Corps is expected to be far below its usual capacity when training begins this month. Due to large incidences of “malnutrition, desertions, and quarantines related to COVID-19,” some units are expected to only operate at around 60 percent capacity for the months-long training exercises. Those numbers have been compared to those during the 1990s famine known as “The Arduous March.” The regime has also been taking steps to catch and punish deserters.

Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

Image: Reuters.

Rachel Bucchino

Politics, Americas

“It’s been an amazing four years,” Trump said to roaring supporters at an indoor holiday event. “We’re trying to do another four years. Otherwise, I’ll see you in four years.” Will he run? 

President Donald Trump added to the ballooned predictions of a 2024 presidential bid during his remarks at a White House holiday party on Tuesday night.

“It’s been an amazing four years,” Trump said to roaring supporters at an indoor holiday event. “We’re trying to do another four years. Otherwise, I’ll see you in four years.”

The video, which was streamed live on Pam Pollard’s Facebook page revealed a large number of people without masks, crowded together in support of the president—amid the seething coronavirus pandemic that’s infecting the country at unseen rates. Pollard is a member of the Oklahoma Republican Party.

The event was one of more than two dozen holiday parties expected to take place at the White House in upcoming weeks, even as the threat of the virus drowns major cities across the country.

“Trump appeals to a large segment of the Republican base. He has energized voters, both in the Republican party and outside of the Republican party. And, he has a strong media presence,” Stephen Ansolabehere, author and professor of government at Harvard University, said. “He will face opposition within the Republican party. Other Republican politicians will begin to position themselves for the 2024 nomination quite soon.”

The video is the most recent public tease at Trump’s 2024 White House bid, as reports first flourished in November about his potential candidacy. Sources close to the president told Axios last month that Trump was considering pulling a President Grover Cleveland by running non-consecutive terms, in the event that President-elect Joe Biden is certified the winner of the 2020 race and the president is nixed from the White House.

Cleveland was the only president in history to successfully leave his presidency and return to serve in a second term four years later after another president held office.

Ansolabehere also pointed to former President Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 presidential election, where he unsuccessfully ran as a third-party candidate under the Bull Moose Party in a three-way race to the presidency, a party that opposed typical conservatism and called for social legislation and active federal oversight of the economy.

“Roosevelt's Bull Moose party suggests an intriguing possibility for Trump in 2024—a third party crafted around Trump's particular political brand and appeal,” he added.

Trump might decide to form his own third party based on “Trumpism” ideals in 2024, similar to what Roosevelt did in the 1912 election.

The president has attempted to reverse the 2020 election results through a legal cascade, claiming the race was filled with massive accounts of voter fraud and therefore a stolen election. But as the president and his legal team has been faced with several defeats in the courtroom, GOP party members are disfavoring future efforts of trying to overturn the results.

Rachel Bucchino is a reporter at the National Interest. Her work has appeared in The Washington Post, U.S. News & World Report and The Hill. 

Image: Reuters

Alors que les relations entre la Turquie et la Russie demeurent marquées par l'ambiguïté et par une rivalité constante, celles qui lient Ankara et Minsk sont au beau fixe. La proximité entre MM. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan et Alexandre Loukachenko explique ce rapprochement qui permet au second d'écarter un (...) / Russie, Biélorussie, Turquie, Relations bilatérales, Armement, Autoritarisme, Diplomatie, Islam - 2020/12

James Holmes

Military History,

Not every military strategist withstands the test of time, but these guys do. 

Here's What You Need to Remember: These men were products of the times they lived in, but their words remain relevant today.

Ranking military strategists against one another is a slippery chore. Apart from the obvious differences among strategists—the historical epochs when they lived, the state of martial technology in their lifetimes, warmaking methods then in vogue—there's a more basic difference. Some strategists are mainly practitioners; others are mainly theorists.

So how do you judge, say, a field soldier like General Ulysses S. Grant—a victor whose bulldog approach to battlefield combat is Carl von Clausewitz's "principle of continuity” made manifest—against a Clausewitz, an indifferent soldier whose accomplishments as a man of letters shape strategic thought and actions to this day? Hard to say.

Oddly, many of the greats seem to be indifferent practitioners who started scribbling down their insights after being defeated, cashiered or both. Maybe failure clears the mind. It hardly renders their ideas moot. Indeed, you ultimately have to favor such teachers over doers. They mine the historical record—the record of the deeds of great captains—for insight into the arcane art of strategy. Napoleon and Frederick the Great are fixtures in Clausewitz's On War. Lord Horatio Nelson is the face of Alfred Thayer Mahan's sea-power theories. Thucydides has Pericles, Alcibiades, Brasidas, Lysander and many others. Practitioners supply the data for teachers to analyze and pass on.

You need both doers and thinkers to perpetuate strategic thought—but ultimately, the thinker with a feel for battlefield realities trumps the practitioner with little flair for analyzing his experiences, drawing out the takeaways and recording the results. Hence, wordsmiths, not commanders, dominate my list of “History's Five Greatest Military Strategists.” A ranking of self-made strategists might encompass warrior-statesmen from Julius Caesar to Nathanael Greene to Abraham Lincoln. With that disclaimer, onward!

Homer:

You've got to respect an author whose identity is lost in antiquity, yet whose writings still compel. As Lawrence Freedman notes, the chronicler of the Trojan War was among the first to explore two dominant themes in martial thought: biê, meaning brute force applied in frontal engagements, and mêtis, meaning craft, guile and subterfuge. It's commonplace to depict biê as the dominant strain in the Western way of war. And indeed, over the centuries, countless Western warriors and theorists have voiced discomfort with seemingly less-than-honorable methods.

Yet Homer reminds posterity that Europe has its own tradition of indirection and cleverness. This isn't just the province of Sun Tzu and his inscrutable Asian followers. Freedman sees Achilles as the face of biê, the Iliad as the chronicle of the direct approach. Trickster Odysseus is the face of mêtis, the Odyssey as Homer's brief for indirection. When you tote things up, the poet seems to conclude that both strands of thought are indispensable—but that biê harnessed by commanders with a gift for mêtis is best. Odysseus makes out better than Achilles. This is a discourse worth revisiting millennia hence.

Thucydides:

We return to the Aegean world for history's fourth-best military thinker. Many might give Thucydides pride of place on this list, and I might agree were this a list of grand strategists. But a treatise about boats and spears doesn't quite make the grade for a ranking of purely military strategy. Nor does the Athenian chronicler spell out his ideas with the clarity of a Wylie, Corbett or Clausewitz. Still, it's all there in Thucydides' History: the land power fighting the sea power, the importance of finance in warmaking, the imperative to build friendly and break enemy alliances, the calculus for opening secondary theaters or operations and much, much more besides. A work for all time.

J. C. Wylie:

Yet another dead white male! And yet I'm cheating here ... or, more charitably, deploying some mêtis of my own. Admiral Wylie acts as a proxy for non-Western strategists like Sun Tzu and Mao Zedong, who prize circumspection, as well as for Englishman B. H. Liddell Hart, the twentieth century's prophet of the indirect approach. Wylie is a kind of meta-strategist, using others' ideas to devise a unified field theory of strategy. He divides warfare into land, maritime, air and Mao schools of thought before concluding that Liddell Hart's big idea—indirection—is the one idea that spans them all. Wylie's compact volume is a tour de force. You might expect me, a maritime strategist, to reach for Mahan first when confronting difficult questions. Nope. Give me Wylie, who served on the Naval War College faculty in the 1950s, over Mahan, an NWC veteran from the 1880s and 1890s, any day.

Julian S. Corbett:

Clausewitz ventures onto the briny main in Corbett's writings. The English theorist wrote for global sea powers—the Royal Navy then, the U.S. Navy now—but any naval power, strong or weak, could press his ideas into service. He proclaims that the Mahanian idea—that the decisive fleet engagement is the route to victory at sea—is correct nine times out of ten. He then spends most of his book analyzing the remaining tenth. The upshot: sea powers can wage limited wars to shape events on land, and even the strong will find themselves weaker at certain times and places. To figure out how the weak can make themselves strong—and emerge triumphant from conflicts occupying that middle ground between peace and all-out war—ask Sir Julian.

Carl von Clausewitz:

The grand master. Best known for appraising the relationship between politics and war, civil and military affairs, Clausewitz sees strategy as military strategy. It's about using battles and engagements to advance the purpose of the war. Think about the general surveying a Napoleonic battlefield—his vision clouded by fog and the smoke of cannon, overseeing a military machine encumbered by friction and dark passions—and you get the idea. There is a reason courses in military strategy, whether Western or Eastern, start with Clausewitz. And there's a reason Asian theorists like Mao incorporate the Prussian into their meditations on politics and war. That's because he articulates a universal logic and grammar of armed conflict. Doing so merits numero uno on my list.

Now, many of you will protest who made my list, who got left off and who was placed where in the pecking order. Good! Get out there, immerse yourself in works on strategic theory, and draw up your own catalogue of go-to scribes. The destination of your intellectual journey matters. But the journey is where you find enlightenment.

James Holmes is Professor of Strategy at the Naval War College and coauthor of Red Star over the Pacific. The views voiced here are his alone. This article first appeared several years ago.

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Warfare History Network

History, Europe

The forest was crawling with enemy soldiers. Third Platoon had to fight its way into its own company kitchen area.

The sound of German artillery shells shrieking overhead from across the Siegfried Line was not the wakeup call Technical Sergeant Robert Walter of 3rd Platoon, L Company, 3rd Battalion, 393rd Infantry Regiment expected to receive on the morning of December 16, 1944. 

He had experienced enemy shelling before. Since mid-November, when the 99th Infantry Division assumed responsibility for the sector of the Ardennes Forest previously manned by the 9th Infantry Division, Sergeant Walter and his fellow 99ers had been the recipients of regular artillery barrages that were carried out with predictable German efficiency. Every day at the same time, the periscopes on the bunkers across the Siegfried Line rose out of their ports. A short time later, a half dozen rounds would come crashing down on the American lines. After that, the guns fell silent for the rest of the day.

“That Ends Our Daily Ration!”

The men of the Checkerboard Division had started calling this their “daily allowance” and even found some comfort in the routine. Sergeant Walter and his foxhole mates figured the present bombardment was just more of the same and that, for whatever reason, the Germans were getting things done a little early that morning—0530 to be exact.

Soon, though, it became apparent that something was very different about this day’s enemy fire mission. Rather than a leisurely six rounds for the entire attack, that number of shells now rained down in a matter of seconds. Bright flashes lit up the darkness, the ground shook, and the noise was incredible.

Also, instead of dying out after a few minutes the barrage continued for what seemed like forever—and only grew in intensity. “That ends our daily ration!” one of the men with Walter quipped over the din as they huddled in their foxhole. To the  22-year-old technical sergeant, however, something big was obviously going on.

What puzzled Walter was that none of the shells seemed to be aimed at the thin line of infantrymen stretched along the International Highway, a north-south road essentially marking the border between Belgium and Germany. Instead, the target appeared to be farther west. He concluded that the enemy gunners were trying to knock out the 99th Division’s artillery battalions located a mile or so northeast of the twin villages of Krinkelt and Rocherath, Belgium.

At approximately 0730, the shelling lifted. Third Platoon and the rest of L Company stayed low in their foxholes, however. The sound of artillery was now replaced by rifle and machine-gun fire coming from seemingly everywhere around them. The rate of fire was especially heavy to the south, in the vicinity of L Company’s brother companies I and K.

The Wahlerscheid Offensive

This baffled Sergeant Walter. He could understand it if all of the noise was coming from the north, in the direction of Monschau. For the past three days a regimental combat team consisting of two battalions from the 99th’s 395th Infantry Regiment and the 2nd Battalion from his own 393rd had been supporting the 2nd Infantry Division’s efforts to seize the Wahlerscheid road junction inside the German border. The Wahlerscheid offensive was critical in the Allies’ larger effort to capture the Roer River dams, which were key to their advance across the Roer Plain. The Germans knew this, too, and had waged a ferocious defense to ensure the Wahlerscheid crossroad stayed in their hands.

To support the Wahlerscheid drive, the remainder of the 393rd and the 394th Infantry Regiment to its south (the third infantry regiment of the 99th Division) had staged limited objective demonstration attacks all along their front lines. Their goal was to occupy as many enemy troops as possible to discourage German commanders from relocating these resources to the battle up north. The action had been brisk at times but nothing like what Walter was now hearing to his right. A significant action was underway.

Robert Walter: Platoon Leader and Sergeant

As he continued listening to the unseen battle raging nearby, Sergeant Walter again focused on his unique, and not entirely welcome, position within 3rd Platoon. Like every platoon in the 99th, the 3rd had been led by an officer, a second lieutenant, when the division entered the line. Soon after arriving in the Ardennes, however, the lieutenant made a clumsy jump out of the bed of a truck and fractured an ankle so badly that he had to be removed from combat. Due to the manpower shortage at that point in the war, no replacement was immediately named. So, for the time being, Sergeant Walter had become 3rd Platoon’s leader as well as its sergeant.

Until now, the young NCO had not found his dual role too overwhelming. But as the small arms exchange to the south continued growing in volume, the weight of his responsibilities began to press on him. He wished his company commander, Captain Paul Fogelman, would radio to let him know what was happening. The captain’s call finally came, but it was not at all what Walter had expected.

“Bob,” Fogelman’s voice crackled over the speaker, “I received a report that some Germans have infiltrated our kitchen area. Take your platoon back and clear them out.”

That was it? Along with the orders, Walter had hoped for an update regarding all that gunfire. But the captain did not act like he knew any more about the situation. “Yes, sir,” Walter replied. He was now more concerned than ever.

Clearing the Kitchen Area

Rousting his men from their foxholes, Walter briefed them on the mission and told them to take along only what they needed for the assignment, which in this case consisted mainly of rifles, ammunition, and grenades. The intent was to get the job done and get back to their foxholes as soon as possible, so everything not absolutely necessary was to be left behind. Within minutes, the platoon was headed west toward the company kitchen area located roughly three city blocks from the front line.

It might as well have been three miles. In the dense woods, the men could not see more than a few feet ahead of them. Not wanting to get separated and not sure what they were walking into, they proceeded with caution.

Before the platoon got halfway to its destination, Sergeant Walter’s worst fears were realized. Germans, a lot of them, began appearing all around the unit. This was much more than a few infiltrators. The forest was crawling with enemy soldiers. Third Platoon had to fight its way into its own company kitchen area.

Once there, the men began cleanup operations while Sergeant Walter radioed back to the front lines. “Hey, something’s really gone wrong!” he yelled into the handset. “There are more Germans back here than there are in front of us!” To Walter everything seemed to have gotten turned around and they were now fighting the war in reverse.

Despite the topsy turvy situation, 3rd Platoon’s order stood: clear the kitchen area. Surprisingly, the Germans there seemed more interested in continuing west than in trading bullets with Walter and his men. As the platoon moved in, these invaders moved out. Soon, the little patch of ground was back in friendly hands with the exception of one small building that no one had yet checked out.

Three Drunk Germans

By now, the sounds of battle from the surrounding woods had grown noticeably fiercer—and closer! Third Platoon went to ground, the men crouching or lying behind anything that offered even a measure of protection. Sergeant Walter desperately wanted to withdraw the platoon back to the company position, but he still was not sure about the status of that lone building. Under the circumstances, strolling up to the door and peeking inside did not seem particularly wise. The sergeant called to one of his men near the structure to throw a grenade at it, figuring the explosion would persuade anyone inside to come out.

The soldier’s toss missed the mark, and so did those of other platoon members who took a crack at the building. None could hit it. Since he had played a lot of softball as a kid, Walter finally decided he might have better luck. Rising to his feet behind a tree, he pulled the pin on a grenade, released the handle, counted to two, then stepped out and let fly.

Walter’s grenade did not hit its target either. But instead of falling short, it sailed over the roof of the building, exploding as it passed above the ridge. Shrapnel slapped down on the shingles; the noise inside must have been deafening. Despite being a serious overthrow, Walter’s effort had produced exactly the effect he had wanted.

At the same time, not 30 feet from where the sergeant made his throw, a flag rose from a foxhole that the L Company kitchen crew had dug sometime in the past. But its current occupants were not members of the 99th Division. Rather, they turned out to be three German soldiers with a machine gun who had decided to take cover there when 3rd Platoon showed up. Walter was stunned. He had no idea why they had not shot him down when he stepped out from behind the tree.

Third Platoon quickly moved to take the Germans prisoner. As these men were searched, Walter noticed something strange about them. They acted drunk. A couple of platoon members checked their canteens, and sure enough they contained alcohol.

“So that’s how they got them up for this fight,” Walter thought. “Sent them in drunk. Filled their canteens with liquor and then said, ‘Take off, boys.’”

“You Seem Kind of Lucky”

In the brief moments it took to disarm the Germans, the noise from the woods had turned into the zip and thwack of bullets cutting the foliage and striking objects all around, forcing the men of 3rd Platoon to take cover again. The battle was definitely headed their way. Everyone hugged the ground tightly.

During the firestorm, Private Snow managed to crawl up to Sergeant Walter, who was sheltering behind a tree. “Sergeant, do you mind if I stay near you?” he asked. “You seem kind of lucky.”

Lucky? Snow must have figured that since Walter had survived standing up to throw that grenade he had a streak of good fortune going. The sergeant and the private had trained together for two years, and Walter knew Snow to be a good soldier—quiet but competent. Snow was a Californian, and that had always struck Walter as funny—Snow from California. Right now, though, he could tell the private was scared to death. In the midst of the confusion, he felt compassion for the guy.

“Help yourself,” he replied.

Relieved, Snow moved close to Sergeant Walter, and the two men lay side by side as the gunfire intensified. A short time later, Walter said something to Snow, but the private did not respond. Glancing over at him, the sergeant was horrified by what he saw. Sometime in the last few minutes, a bullet had caught Snow between the eyes and he was dead. Walter never even felt him twitch.

No Sign of I Company

German infantrymen started pouring through the area. From the woods behind the Americans came the growling sound of enemy tanks—something 3rd Platoon was not at all equipped to handle. There was no time to contact the captain. Sergeant Walter knew he had to get his men out of the way. Otherwise, they would be prisoners or worse. But returning to L Company was out of the question. Motioning for the others to follow, he headed south toward I Company. They had no choice but to leave Private Snow’s body behind.

This move did little to improve the platoon’s circumstances, however. No matter how fast they traveled, they could not find the enemy’s flank but seemed permanently stuck in the middle of the German advance. Machine guns chattered and grenades exploded. Rifle fire filled the air. Guessing, dodging, hoping, and praying, 3rd Platoon kept pushing south, looking for any spot that could provide a defensive advantage.

The force of the attack carried the platoon completely through the I Company sector. As they passed through, the men were shocked not to find a single I Company soldier anywhere. By this time, I Company and the rest of L Company had pulled back to form a perimeter defense around the 3rd Battalion command post northeast of the twin villages, but no one in 3rd Platoon knew this at the time.

Worse yet, groups of enemy soldiers traveling west began cutting across the platoon’s route, separating some of its members from the rest of the unit. Sergeant Walter now found his already small command getting smaller by the minute.

Bad News from K Company

Third Platoon was finally able to stop its flight in the K Company sector, south of I Company, and what its men found there left them numb. As soon as the German artillery barrage lifted that morning, two battalions of Volksgrenadiers from the I SS Panzer Corps had slammed into K Company, wiping out two of its three platoons. A few survivors of this onslaught were still in the area, and they told Walter and his men that maybe 17 soldiers were left from both platoons. The rest had either been killed or captured.

More bad news followed. The traumatized K Company men reported that a couple of their buddies taken prisoner during the assault were wearing German belt buckles when captured. This infuriated their captors, who assumed these GIs had removed the buckles from the bodies of dead German soldiers they had killed, so they “re-removed” these souvenirs by slitting the Americans open with their bayonets.

The report sent a panic through 3rd Platoon, and each man did a quick inventory to ensure he did not possess anything that had once belonged to a German. Days earlier while on a patrol, some platoon members had come across a hollow tree stuffed with German money. Clueless as to why the stash was there, they decided some extra funds would come in handy once the 99th crossed into Germany and had stuffed their pockets full. Now, they pulled these bills and coins back out and threw them as far away as possible.

While this was occurring, Sergeant Walter remembered his own German item, an eye-catching little pin he had picked up in Krinkelt shortly before the 99th entered the line. The townspeople told him this decoration was given to any Belgian woman who became pregnant by an SS trooper as a reward for her contribution to the master race. Walter thought the pin was beautiful and carried it with him so he would not lose track of it. Taking it out of his pocket, he admired its beauty one last time and then tossed it into the underbrush.

Lying Low

Again, the roar of tank engines was heard, this time coming from the direction of the unpaved road from Hollerath, Germany, a southwestern route that intersected the International Highway and served as the dividing line between I and K Companies. Investigating this latest threat, Walter and his men could hardly believe their eyes. Scores of panzers accompanied by infantry were rolling down this muddy trail and headed west. The Americans had thought the road was impassable and probably mined as well. Now, the Germans were using it as a thoroughfare for their armor.

With no opportunity for other action, the soldiers of 3rd Platoon dove for cover wherever they could find it, hiding behind trees and bushes or burrowing into the snow. Walter found a spot in a clump of shrubbery so close to the road that if he had had a rod no longer than a fishing pole he could have tapped each tank as it drove by. It was the end of the line for Walter and his men. All they could do now was stay hidden and wait for the invaders to pass.

That did not happen soon. Hour after hour, the German tank and infantry procession continued. Eventually, the squeak of tank treads became so unnerving that one 3rd Platoon rifleman took a shot at a panzer. All this did was invite the next tank in line to fire a round in the direction of the shot. No one was wounded by the blast—the tank could not get its barrel down low enough.

Walter crawled around to all the men. “It’s no use firing at them,” he whispered. “We’re not going to stop them with rifles, so just lay low.” To the sergeant, he and his soldiers resembled ostriches helplessly sticking their heads in the sand. “What the hell am I going to do now?” he asked himself as he settled back into his hiding place.

“If Anyone Wants to Surrender, There Will be No Repercussions”

Late in the day, gaps started appearing in the enemy column, so Sergeant Walter decided to cross the Hollerath road with the prisoners his platoon had captured earlier and hike north in search of L Company. Despite the dense forest and the growing darkness, somehow he finally managed to find the company headquarters. Releasing his prisoners to headquarters personnel, he reported to his company commander.

Captain Fogelman had no new information he could share with his NCO platoon leader. The extent of the German offensive was still unclear; under these circumstances it was best for 3rd Platoon to remain where it was rather than risk trying to rejoin the company. Then the captain said something that sent a chill through Walter.

“If anyone wants to surrender, there will be no repercussions.”

The statement caught the sergeant by surprise but needed no further explanation. Captain Fogelman was acknowledging that 3rd Platoon’s situation was grim. If any platoon member decided to save himself rather than continue holding out, he would not face official punishment. It was a sobering consideration.

Unsettled, Sergeant Walter wrestled with himself all during his return to the platoon. He didn’t want to surrender and was sure his men didn’t either. So what should he tell them? It was a difficult call, but by the time he sneaked back across the Hollerath road, he had made up his mind. The company was not ready for 3rd Platoon to come in yet. They were to remain in place until a way out could be found. As he repeated this message to each group of men, he omitted what the captain had said about surrender and hoped he was doing the right thing.

Meanwhile, the enemy kept coming.

Word of the Malmédy Massacre

Sunday, December 17, brought more uncertainty to Sergeant Walter and his “lost” platoon. There seemed to be no end to the Germans’ advance down the Hollerath road. How did they ever manage to get such a large force that far forward without being noticed? And with the odds against it, how would 3rd Platoon survive? Increasingly, it looked like a hopeless situation.

As if the platoon’s predicament was not bad enough, late in the day word arrived that some Nazi outfit had gunned down a large group of American prisoners west of 3rd Platoon near a place called Malmédy. Walter and his men were aghast.

When this news broke, Sergeant Walter felt vindicated for not sharing what Captain Fogelman had said about surrender. On the other hand, every hour that passed put 3rd Platoon farther and farther behind enemy lines. The longer this battle continued, the harder it would be for soldiers on either side to abide by any form of recognized rules. By now, he was convinced the Germans knew where his platoon was hiding. If one of the passing units decided to take them prisoner, would they end up like those poor GIs near Malmédy? The Army never used the word retreat but referred to such actions as a “strategic withdrawal.” As he watched the enemy race by, Walter hoped somebody somewhere was working on a strategic withdrawal plan and would get it to them soon.

At roughly 2300 that night, during a lull in the traffic on the Hollerath road, 3rd Platoon was startled to hear the sound of a vehicle coming up the road from the west. The vehicle turned out to be an American medical jeep that had been sent forward to evacuate the wounded. The fact that this driver got through was miraculous to Sergeant Walter; Germans were thick on all sides. Apparently, they had seen the jeep’s Red Cross symbol and respected it—a heartening sign after the Malmédy news.

Despite their surprise, Sergeant Walter, his best friend Staff Sergeant Walter Levdansky, and several other soldiers came out of hiding to assist the driver. After helping load three litter cases onto the jeep, they watched the driver speed off into the night headed west. “Where in the hell do you think you’re going?” Sergeant Walter thought. The idea that the driver could make it back to the safety of the American lines was harder to fathom than the possibility of reaching 3rd Platoon in the first place.

Late on the morning of December 18, Sergeant Walter received word from Captain Fogelman that 3rd/393rd had been ordered to pull back to a new defensive position near a place called Elsenborn. Not certain what this meant for 3rd Platoon, Walter made another trip to L Company, seeking more information.

Two Disturbing Sets of Orders

“We think we’ve found a route back to our lines,” Fogelman said after Walter arrived. He explained that about 100 yards west was a little valley bordered on its far side by a hill. The valley ran north for some distance before turning west, and L Company was going to use this defilade to withdraw. But to mask this movement, one unit would have to create a diversion. Then he dropped a bombshell. That unit was 3rd Platoon. “I want you to keep your platoon where it is and give us covering fire while we pull out,” he added.

Taken aback, Sergeant Walter began to wonder what his commanding officer thought of him and his men. Did he consider them expendable? Who was going to cover their withdrawal? This “plan” sounded more like a suicide mission.

Captain Fogelman next briefed the sergeant on when and where 3rd Platoon was to reconnect with the company after the withdrawal, and then dismissed him to return to his men. As he was leaving headquarters, Walter overheard a directive that was even more disturbing than the orders he had just been given. An officer told several GIs to take the three prisoners he had brought in two days earlier into the woods and shoot them. Later, while Walter was still en route to his destination, gunshots sounded from the area where the officer had pointed.

“Okay, Let’s Go”

Back with 3rd Platoon, Sergeant Walter gathered his men and briefed them on their mission. Then he had them cross the Hollerath road in small groups. The platoon moved north to take up new positions nearer to L Company. At the time when the company’s pullback was to begin, 3rd Platoon cut loose with a brief but intense rifle volley in the direction of the advancing Germans.

This ignited a hailstorm of bullets and mortar rounds from the other side. But instead of being directed at 3rd Platoon, this barrage thundered down on the valley where L Company was trying to make its escape. How had they known, and how bad were things in that valley? Suddenly, the sergeant felt much better about the role his platoon had been given in this operation. Maybe the captain had done him and his men a favor after all.

Now, a game of chicken began as Sergeant Walter tried to determine whether the Germans that blasted L Company had left the area or were still out there waiting for 3rd Platoon to make its move. After an hour and a half, he called the men together.

“First of all, I’ve been told if you want to surrender, it’s no disgrace,” Walter said, finally sharing what Captain Fogelman had told him earlier. “We aren’t trained this way, but do you see that hill behind us? Personally, I’m going over it. If you want to follow me, you can. If you have a route you think is better, take it. The main thing is to get out of here and get back to our lines.”

To a man, the platoon voted to follow their sergeant.

Walter had one more precaution to take. Directing his men to redistribute ammunition so that each soldier had at least one full clip, he ordered the platoon to fire another volley at the Germans to see if they would answer in kind. After roughly 10 minutes, when there was no return fire, he gave the order: “Okay, let’s go.”

Fighting the Germans and the Elements

Although unconventional, Sergeant Walter’s plan worked to perfection. He and his men were cresting the hill before the Germans, who had been waiting for the platoon, realized what was happening and opened up with machine guns. Even then, they had been anticipating another move through the valley and had registered their weapons too low to have any effect. The bullets chewed harmlessly into the hillside while the platoon made good its break.

The greatest enemy facing 3rd Platoon now became the weather. The snow was already two feet deep and more was falling. It was miserably cold, and the wind was whipping the heavy curtain of flakes around so hard that visibility was practically zero. Unlike some other soldiers he had trained with back in the States, Sergeant Walter had made the most of his time in compass school. Now that skill became a lifesaver, keeping him and his men on course for their hookup with L Company rather than wandering aimlessly around the woods.

Third Platoon’s route took it through the sector previously occupied by the 99th Division’s artillery battalions. There the unit found big guns and towing vehicles, jeeps mostly, that had been abandoned in place because the withdrawing units did not have time to ready them for travel. Determined not to leave anything useful for the enemy, the men paused long enough to drop grenades into gun breeches and engine compartments. Then, realizing that the explosions might attract the attention of any German units nearby, they made a hasty exit.

A short distance away, though, the platoon stopped again when it ran across the artillery unit’s food dump; not food in packages—a literal garbage dump. Hunger overcame fear as men who had not eaten in three days scrounged through other men’s castoffs looking for something edible. Sergeant Walter managed to find a piece of bread that had not been totally demolished by the elements. His buddy Sergeant Levdansky was the big winner. He found a whole raw potato.

Rendevous with L Company

That evening as darkness settled in, the worn out men of 3rd Platoon finally reached their rendezvous point with L Company, a section of woods to the east of the twin villages. The place was fairly open with sparse underbrush but still offered good concealment for L Company and the assorted stragglers from other units who had assembled there. Relieved to be back among so many friendly faces, Sergeant Walter and his men relished the prospect of catching a little shut-eye before making the final push to their new defensive positions.

But sleep was in short supply that night. As always, the Germans seemed to know exactly where L Company was and threw a steady stream of phosphorous flares over its position, lighting up the area like it was daylight. Instead of getting some much needed rest, the men of 3rd Platoon, along with the others, were forced to stay awake, bracing for sniper fire and an artillery attack that never came.

The flares finally tapered off around midnight on December 19. Shortly afterward, L Company crept away under cover of darkness, trudging northwest for hours through the snow and ice to rejoin 3rd Battalion at a place that was not even on the map but would soon become renowned because of its stubborn defense by the American units dug in there. They stopped SS General Josef “Sepp” Dietrich’s Sixth Panzer Army dead in its tracks. That place was Elsenborn Ridge.

Technical Sergeant Robert Walter had no inkling that this destiny lay ahead as he stared wearily at the boomerang-shaped piece of high ground in the faint morning light. After three gut-wrenching days behind enemy lines, caught between indescribable firepower while enduring fear, cold, hunger, and the threat of capture or death at any moment, he had already gone through hell and survived. Elsenborn Ridge was not heaven by a long shot, but at least it offered his 3rd Platoon the chance to live and fight another day.

And for now, somehow, that seemed like more than enough.

Epilogue

Sergeant Walter survived the war and returned to his home in Fostoria, Ohio, where he served as a police officer for nearly a decade before entering private industry. Throughout his working career, he also gave freely of his time as a volunteer to many civic organizations in the Fostoria community. Sergeant Walter passed away April 19, 2014, at the age of 91.

Jay Marquart is a freelance writer from Bluffton, Ohio, whose writing has appeared in such publications as Horse & Rider, Military Medical/ CBRN Technology, and Vietnam.

This article first appeared on the Warfare History Network.

Image: Wikimedia Commons.

Ari Heistein

Security, Middle East

While Israel is not a party to the war in Yemen, it does have interests in the arena.

The trajectory of the war in Yemen is now highly uncertain due to a number of factors which include the upcoming change in U.S. administrations as well as the failure of the Saudi efforts over the past year to maintain internal cohesion within its coalition and reach a negotiated settlement with Houthis. The present uncertainty provides an impetus for Jerusalem to recalibrate its approach to the Yemen conflict, and it should consider shifting its policy to one which more actively supports the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in South Yemen.

While Israel is not a party to the war in Yemen, it does have interests in the arena: preventing the Iran-backed Houthis from growing more powerful and acquiring advanced weapons from Tehran, extricating Saudi Arabia (Israel’s unofficial partner in the regional anti-Iran coalition) from the costly quagmire, and preventing the resurgence of jihadist groups like al-Qaeda. The current state of affairs, in which Saudi Arabia leads a coalition supporting the central Government of Yemen (GOY) headed by President Hadi, advances only one of Israel’s three interests in the theater.

Based on the events over the past five years, the second half of which has been a stalemate between Saudi-backed forces and the Houthis, Hadi’s government appears unable to eliminate or even diminish the Iranian proxy threat. If anything, recent years have seen the pace, accuracy, and sophistication of Houthi attacks increase considerably.

In addition, despite Saudi Arabia’s best efforts, it appears unable to extricate itself from the conflict that has already cost it dearly in blood, treasure, and international reputation. This is because if Riyadh withdraws before a political settlement has been reached—and any deal seems like a remote possibility at present—then the GOY could collapse under Houthi pressure and leave Saudi Arabia without any channel of influence in what is often described as its “backyard.”

The one Israeli interest that has been advanced in Yemen is the decimation of Sunni jihadist groups, including al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). However, this is hardly the handiwork of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. Rather, close cooperation between the United States, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and UAE-backed southern forces has led to the degradation of jihadists groups from their peak in 2015-2016 when AQAP took control of the Yemeni port city of Mukalla.

To ensure that its interests are protected in the face of potentially dramatic changes, particularly in Saudi policy, Israel should consider supporting Yemen’s STC in its ambitions to achieve independence for South Yemen. An independent South Yemen could safeguard Israel’s interests to a considerable degree: The STC and its UAE backers have already demonstrated willingness to take on jihadist forces, they are not dependent on Saudi support, and their rise could allow for Riyadh to end its costly involvement in Yemen. Geographically, they leave any future Iran-aligned Houthi state in north Yemen essentially encircled by hostile forces. The partition of Yemen would also deny the Houthis the fig leaf of legitimacy—a benign cover for malign activity—which would be granted to them in the event of a political settlement that maintained Yemen’s unity (a la Hezbollah).

However, it must also be acknowledged that Yemen’s STC will not resolve the Houthi threat. Given their southern separatist orientation, it is obvious why STC forces would be uninterested in conquering that very same northern Yemen territory from which they seek to secede. But in light of the fact that a unified and moderate Yemen is not a realistic possibility for the foreseeable future, partitioning the country may represent an optimal alternative between the extremes of unrealistic optimism regarding the prospects of the GOY and forsaking Yemen to the Houthis.

For Israel in particular, the rise of the STC could be a positive development given the organization’s apparent openness to Jews and the Jewish state. Two days after the UAE-Israel normalization agreement was announced, STC Vice President Hani Bin Brik declared his interest in visiting Tel Aviv, meeting with Jews from South Yemen, and then going together with them to Jerusalem to pray. Such public identification with Israel and Jews is quite rare in the Arab world and could mean that Israel has a potential ally conveniently located around Bab al-Mandeb—one of the most important maritime chokepoints in the world. In the Yemeni theater, all of the alternatives to the STC are far more hostile or at least standoffish in their approach to Israel.

At present, the STC is in control of Aden but it is not yet ready to govern the entirety of South Yemen because it lacks both the infrastructure to provide essential services and the adequate global support to delineate new international boundaries in rejection of those borders established when Yemen was unified in 1990. But it is worth remembering that there are no silver bullets or elegant solutions to this very messy conflict. Supporting the STC will not deliver a quick fix for Yemen because no such quick fix exists. Yet Israel might consider how it could support South Yemen’s aspirations as a means to ensure its interests in a strategic location at a time of great uncertainty.

Ari Heistein is a research fellow and chief of staff to the director at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Israel.

Image: Reuters.

Stephen Silver

Technology, Americas

The Spotify software, if implemented, would catch whether elements of songs, such as the chord sequence, melodic fragments, harmony, match those of existing music, in a process that would take place in near real-time.

This week, the timelines of many social media users are full of their annual reports from Spotify, stating which songs and artists they listened to most often in 2020. This was enough to get the names of multiple artists, including Taylor Swift, trending on Twitter Tuesday.

But this week, there’s some other news from the music streaming giant. The website Music Business Worldwide noticed a filing for a patent this week for “Plagiarism Risk Detector And Interface,” which will discover “methods, systems and computer program products . . . for testing a lead sheet for plagiarism.” 

It’s an extremely common occurrence in the music business for the writers of popular songs to be sued for plagiarism, by artists claiming they came up with the song first. In 2015, Robin Thicke and Pharrell Williams lost a lawsuit over their hit Blurred Lines, and were ordered by a jury to pay more than $7 million to the estate of Marvin Gaye.

The Spotify software, if implemented, would catch whether elements of songs, such as the “chord sequence, melodic fragments, harmony,” match those of existing music, in a process that would take place “in near real-time.”

Spotify describes the tool as “a graphical user interface (GUI) that is more intuitive, more precise as to the portion of the work that may be considered plagiaristic, and that provides dynamic visual feedback in substantially real-time.”

The patent, which was filed in Europe, has just now been approved, indicating that its actual implementation in Spotify’s algorithms is probably a ways away. But the technology is already controversial. 

“They should use AI to invent technology that pays artists fairly,” one Twitter user said. Another speculated that the new tool would “single handedly cause the sample scene to flock to bandcamp.” 

Back in September Spotify, which competes directly with Apple’s music streaming service Apple Music, issued a statement objecting to Apple’s announcement of a new Apple One bundle for its different services.

“Once again, Apple is using its dominant position and unfair practices to disadvantage competitors and deprive consumers by favoring its own services,” Spotify told the media following Apple’s September event. “We call on competition authorities to act urgently to restrict Apple’s anti-competitive behavior, which if left unchecked, will cause irreparable harm to the developer community and threaten our collective freedoms to listen, learn, create, and connect.”

Spotify, throughout the year, has been moving further into the podcasting world, in an attempt to diversify beyond merely music streaming. The company reached an exclusive deal to carry “The Joe Rogan Experience” podcast, while also paying nearly $200 million in February for the Ringer, Bill Simmons’s podcast-heavy media company. Spotify also was reportedly looking to launch a subscription podcast service, according to a report by The Verge in November.

Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

Image: Reuters

Kris Osborn

Security, Asia

China is not happy about this at all.

With U.S. help, Taiwan is building its own new, indigenous fleet of attack submarines to protect waters off its shores and better safeguard maritime passageways between the island and mainland China, a move which is being criticized, downplayed and dismissed by Chinese military analysts. 

Following a celebration at one of Taiwan’s Southern ports commemorating the start of construction of Taiwanese “domestically developed” submarines, Chinese military analysts were quoted in a Chinese government-backed newspaper saying “the Taiwan island does not have what it takes to build advanced submarines, and even with U.S. help, the underwater vehicles could not make waves in the Taiwan Straits, and may suffer from technical difficulties that hinder combat capabilities.”

These remarks stand in stark contrast to comments from a Taiwanese leader cited in the paper saying the emerging submarines will help prevent hostile ships from “encircling Taiwan.” The Chinese experts quoted also questioned Taiwan’s industrial capacity to build the submarines, even though the island of Taiwan has long been known for having a range of production facilities as well as the technical knowledge to move forward. 

A Chinese military analyst was quoted in the paper saying “…with the help of the US, which could involve technology transfer, the island could eventually make the submarines work, but due to the inexperience of the island’s industry and the complexity of submarine development, the submarines could suffer technical difficulties that hinder their combat capabilities.”

The expert also claimed that Chinese Y-8 sub-hunting planes could easily monitor the activities of new Taiwanese submarines. “Many mainland warships are equipped with towed sonar systems, anti-submarine warfare helicopters and torpedoes, plus Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft,” the Chinese military analyst said in the paper. 

The issue of U.S. technological help seems quite significant, as while the new submarines are not likely to fully mirror the U.S. Virginia-class attack boats, Taiwan could benefit substantially from U.S. technological sophistication when it comes to attack submarine technologies. The U.S. has in recent years been progressing rapidly with new attack submarine weapons, sonar, sensors, command and control and quieting technologies. 

For example, new Taiwanese submarines could incorporate some of the quieting technologies now being built into Virginia-class boats, many of which were first prototyped years ago on the USS South Dakota, a now deployed Virginia-class submarine which began as a prototype test bed for a new generation of undersea technologies. While details related to many of these systems were naturally not available for security reasons, Navy leaders did explain that they included newer coating materials to lower a submarine’s acoustic signature and reduce the possibility of being detected by enemy sonar. The innovations also include newer kinds of propulsion technologies and command and control systems engineered to give modern U.S. attack submarines at technological edge over adversaries when it comes to reconnaissance, quiet coastal patrols or even surveil high-risk areas.

Taiwanese submarines could also benefit from U.S. innovations in the realm of firepower, as the U.S. Navy’s emerging Block V submarines are built with new, extended Virginia Payload Modules. Those modules are new 80-foot long sections of the submarines adding Tomahawk missiles to the boat’s overall firepower. Adding the modules brings the total number of Tomahawks on board a block V Virginia boat from twelve up to twenty-eight, a massive increase in firepower. 

Moving beyond firepower, the greatest technological advantage Taiwan might gain from U.S. assistance might be found in the realm of command and control, given that the Virginia-class submarines operate with a modern Large Aperture Bow sonar array bringing greater range, signal fidelity and sensitivity to submarine sonar detection. This, coupled with computer enabled, fly-by-wire navigational and sensor controls, could give the new Taiwanese submarines an edge when it comes to conducting clandestine reconnaissance missions off the coast of contested areas in the South China Sea or near mainland China. 

None of this is to say that new Taiwanese submarines will incorporate all of these systems, as much of that likely remains to be seen, but rather to point out that, with U.S. input, new Taiwanese subs may have a range of advanced and highly impactful technologies to evaluate.

Kris Osborn is the defense editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University. 

Image: Reuters

Shaul Chorev

Energy, Middle East

Once an agreement is in place, and the Lebanese people see a marked improvement in their economy, we may see decreased tension between the two countries and maybe even—one day—some sort of peace.

This week, Israel’s Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz issued an open invitation of sorts via Twitter welcoming Lebanese President Michel Aoun to meet in Europe in order to settle a long-standing dispute regarding the two country’s maritime borders.

On the surface, such a development is hardly groundbreaking, but considering Israeli law enforcement still considers Lebanon an enemy state after engaging in four bloody conflicts, these not-so-secret negotiations may set the stage for a paradigm shift for Israel, Lebanon and the region at large.

The major sticking point is how many square nautical miles belong to each country, with Israel accusing Lebanon of demanding far more territory than it is actually entitled to. In a tit for tat, Israel too, expanded its claim to its square miles beyond its shores. While the United States—who is mediating the discussions—described the three rounds of talks launched last month at the United Nations base in Naqoura as “productive,” the next meeting has yet to be scheduled.

This is unfortunate. Not just for Lebanon. Not just for Israel. But for the Middle East which has been making many encouraging strides to stability.

So, what’s to gain? On an economic level, the Lebanese are in dire straits and are suffering from the worst economy they’ve had since their civil war from 1975-1990. With the younger generation calling for change, the government has been putting pressure on Hezbollah to allow for further development along the Eastern Mediterranean. This includes many initiatives including exploring its natural gas resources along its exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

Twenty years ago, a country’s maritime domain was not crucial to states living by the sea, but as we witnessed from the huge boon Israel enjoyed from its own natural gas discoveries, that is rapidly starting to change. After being dependent on imports for much of its existence, Israel’s discovery of its Leviathan gas field 130 kilometers west of Haifa enabled them to export 40 percent of its gas to other countries and develop energy trade agreements with Egypt and Jordan. Now, Lebanon wants to explore and develop its potential gas fields in its EEZ and is likely to make a discovery along its Southern coast whose maritime border is shared with Israel.

Eventually, even if the talks fail, Lebanon is likely to stumble upon its own reservoir—one that very well may be in Israel’s territory. So, any delay in conducting these talks will just succeed in further kicking the can down the road.

But what are the security implications of having Hezbollah closer to Israel’s shores? One would imagine Israel would not be so keen to give one of its enemies such an advantage. However, as a retired admiral in the Israeli Navy, I can confidently say that any attack on Israel’s gas resources by Lebanon would warrant a swift response from Israel. This would cause Lebanon to think twice before acting aggressively.

In addition, these talks are backed by U.S. interests. As U.S. President Donald Trump wraps up his term, President-elect Joe Biden will be just as interested in maintaining these talks because weakening Hezbollah’s influence in the region would deal a mortal blow to the region’s “Axis of Resistance,” which includes Iran’s Shi’ite proxy as well as Syria and Iran. Dismantling their influence in the region and engaging with more moderate actors like Egypt and Saudi Arabia is part of the huge seismic change we’re now seeing in the Middle East and is one that enjoys largely bipartisan support.

Moreover, from a diplomatic standpoint, an agreement could demonstrate to Israel’s new friends in the region—the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan—that it is acting in good faith by speaking with its neighbors. And improved relations with Sudan can positively influence Israel’s other maritime border along the Red Sea; roughly one-third of Israeli trade goes through the Bab al-Mandab Strait which is a hotbed for terrorist activity. Should Sudan continue to look favorably on Israel, it is likely to lead to a dialing down of tensions there which will be a boon for Israel leading to facilitating trade routes to China, India and beyond.

And what if the talks fail? Yes, there is a chance we will just continue to see more of the same. But a much more realistic scenario is that Lebanon could conduct exploratory missions in waters that Israel perceives to be part of its territory, just as Turkey has done with Greece in another part of the eastern Mediterranean. Israel will see it as a threat and the European Union’s oil and gas exploration companies behind these missions will be caught in the crosshairs of an explosive international crisis that could see implications across the region.

It is important to remember that these are not peace talks. But you have to start somewhere. After all, relations between the United States and China began with an innocuous game of table tennis.  

Once gas is found on the Lebanese side of the maritime border, the two countries will be required to coordinate with each other on activities related to dealing with cases of mishaps, accidents, marine pollution, etc. which will improve the level of trust between those involved. Furthermore, once an agreement is in place, and the Lebanese people see a marked improvement in their economy, we may see decreased tension between the two countries and maybe even—one day—some sort of peace.

As such, I implore both parties to try to find a common ground and I applaud Steinitz for conveying Israel’s willingness to compromise. I hope Lebanon will agree to do the same. We’re now witnessing the beginning of a new chapter in the Middle East, let’s not squander it.

Professor Rear Adm (ret.) Shaul Chorev is the head of the Maritime Policy & Strategy Research Center at University of Haifa and Director of the University's Ezri Center for Iran and Persian Gulf Studies.

Image: Reuters.

Stephen Silver

Technology, Americas

The film, which was expected to be one of the year’s biggest blockbusters, will hit both formats on Christmas Day. It will also have an international theatrical release on Dec. 16. And the release on HBO Max will only last for a month, leaving the door open to a possible theatrical re-release post-pandemic. 

Warner Media made the shocking announcement last month that it will debut Wonder Woman 1984 simultaneously in theaters and on the streaming service HBO Max. The film was scheduled for theatrical release earlier this year and was repeatedly delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic, and Warner decided that rather than wait until after the pandemic to put out a wide release, it would put a high-profile title on its streaming service instead, along with a release in whichever theaters are open.

Now, the company has announced, via a tweet by the film’s director Patty Jenkins, that it will be making the film available in high-tech presentation, including in 4K, with Dolby Vision and Dolby Atmos. All are a first since HBO Max launched earlier this year.

“Excited to announce that #WW84 will be the first film on HBO Max available in 4K Ultra HD, HDR 10, Dolby Vision AND Dolby Atmos! Can’t wait. IN THEATERS on Dec. 25th and exclusively streaming in the US on @hbomax,” the director said in the tweet. “PLEASE find the biggest and highest quality screen you can.”

Jenkins had previously said, at the time that the HBO Max release was first announced, that she preferred that fans go to see it in theaters. The film had a reported budget of $200 million, meaning that Warner is likely forgoing a large box office payday by not making the film a theatrical exclusive.

On the 4K and Dolby capabilities, “HBO Max will expand these capabilities to further films and TV series, as well as adding support for additional devices, throughout 2021,” the company said in an email announcement Tuesday.

The film, which was expected to be one of the year’s biggest blockbusters, will hit both formats on Christmas Day. It will also have an international theatrical release on Dec. 16. And the release on HBO Max will only last for a month, leaving the door open to a possible theatrical re-release post-pandemic. 

HBO Max subscribers will be able to watch the movie via the Amazon Fire platform, due to a deal reached by the parties earlier this fall. The big question is whether Warner will have made a similar deal with Roku in time for the “Wonder Woman” release, thus allowing those with 4K Roku TVs to experience the film that way. There were media rumblings prior to Thanksgiving that such a deal was imminent, but one has not been announced as of yet. 

“Wonder Woman 1984” once again stars Gal Gadot as the famous DC heroine, while “Saturday Night Live” veteran Kristen Wiig will play the villain, Cheetah. Also in the cast are Pedro Pascal, Robin Wright and Connie Nielsen, while Chris Pine will reprise his role from the first movie as Steve Trevor. 

Stephen Silver, a technology writer for the National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

Image: Reuters

Kyle Mizokami

Security, Middle East

Sorry Tehran, but these weapons will more likely defend against Iran, than fight for it.

Here's What You Need to Remember: America used to support and supply Iran under the Shah, but no longer.

During the 1970s the ruler of Iran, the shah, was an ardent supporter of the United States. His coffers overflowing with petrodollars, the shah requested—and often got—the latest American weapons. Such examples included the AH-1 Cobra attack helicopter, Harpoon missile and even the F-14 Tomcat fighter. (His request for the SR-71 Blackbird was turned down.)

Now an entirely different theocratic, largely hostile regime rules Iran. The regime, armed with a hodgepodge of shah-era, homebrewed and Russian weapons, is less than optimally armed. But what if Iran had access to America’s great arsenal of democracy? What weapons would it choose to arm itself with?

1. MQ-9 Reaper

The Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle would be an extremely useful weapon for Iran. A country with land and sea borders with often hostile countries, mountainous terrain and a hand in conflicts throughout the Middle East, Iran could use Reaper drones for everything from border patrolling to maritime attack and close air support for its allied forces on the ground.

Reapers armed with Hellfire missiles would quickly become Iran’s go-to weapon, threatening shipping in the Straits of Hormuz and supporting Hezbollah forces on the ground in Syria. Unarmed and with a persistent loitering capability, Reapers could act as cheap intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance platforms for the Iranian military.

2. AH-64 Apache Attack Helicopter

Backing up Iran’s fleet of MQ-9 Reaper drones would be AH-64 Apache attack helicopters. The Apache is armed with a 30-millimeter chain gun and external hardpoints capable of carrying up to sixteen Hellfire missiles, seventy-six 2.75-inch rockets, or some combination thereof.

The combination of Reaper drones and Apache helicopters would quickly make Iran and Iranian-backed forces two of the most powerful in the Middle East. Iran’s Reapers could identify the enemy and conduct a limited number of time-sensitive strikes, Apaches could then be called in to bring in the serious firepower. Apaches could wreak havoc on lightly armed enemy guerrillas, and Hellfire missile’s long range enables the helicopter to stay out of the engagement envelope of man-portable air-defense missiles such as the Chinese FN-6.

A flight of just four Apaches could seriously damage any warship operating in the Persian Gulf, and perhaps even sink smaller ones such as the American Littoral Combat Ship.

3. Littoral Combat Ship

Iran never had much of a navy, which amounted to a handful of American and European made small surface combatants. Then again, the Persian Gulf was virtually an Iranian lake and closing it was never in the cards for the shah. The Islamic Republic, on the other hand, has other ideas.

While Iran doesn’t need a large navy, it would benefit from having some of the latest, most advanced vessels designed to operate in the littorals. Littoral combat ships could patrol Iran’s sea border, intimidating enemy shipping, escorting convoys of military materials to Iranian client forces throughout the Middle East and showing the Iranian flag. They would also boost the prestige of the Iranian Navy against its archenemy the Royal Saudi Navy, matching the frigates of the Al-Riyadh class with a ship of similar size.

4. F-35B Joint Strike Fighter

In any armed conflict with the West, Iran would be at a serious disadvantage. Not only would it be outnumbered, it would be up against air and naval forces that are well trained and that have executed military campaigns in Serbia and Kosovo, Iraq, Libya, Syria and elsewhere. The targeting and destruction of Iranian air force bases would be just part of what has become a well-established ritual. While Iran’s S-300 and S-400 air defense missile systems would provide a credible defense, eventually those defenses would be worn down and the country’s air force would be completely destroyed.

The alternative is to scatter the Iranian air force to the four winds, dispersing its fighters to smaller civilian airfields, stretches of highway and perhaps even caves carved into hillsides. This would make detecting and neutralizing Iranian air power much more difficult, but still allowing Iranian air commanders to concentrate their combat forces when necessary.

Ideally, the fighter would be a multi-role beast, capable of air-to-air and air to ground missions. It would also be capable of vertical takeoff and landing. The obvious choice—the only choice at this point—would be the American F-35B.

5. Minuteman III Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

Iran, like other pariah states such as Iraq and North Korea, has spent decades pursuing both nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missile programs. The ability to attack the United States with nuclear weapons has been a long-cherished goal, a trump card against any military action against such states.

The nuclear program was halted by international agreement in 2015. Still, there’s little doubt that Iran would like warm and fuzzy comfort of a nuclear umbrella. Given Iran’s limited access to protected or expansive waterways and the lack of strategic bombers, the ideal choice would be intercontinental ballistic missiles.

A force of LGM-30 Minuteman III ICBMs, hidden in hardened silos in the Zagros Mountains, would deter Saudi Arabia, the United States and others from armed conflict with Iran. The risk of escalation to a nuclear exchange would be enough to give Iran’s traditional enemies pause, and cause the remaining nonnuclear states to go nuclear.

Unconstrained by arms control treaties, the Minuteman IIIs would sit armed with multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles, each capable of attacking a different target with a 350-kiloton warhead. Such a nuclear umbrella would likely embolden the Islamic Republic to pursue an even more aggressive regional foreign policy. . . much to the detriment of its neighbors.

 Kyle Mizokami is a defense and national security writer based in San Francisco who has appeared in the Diplomat, Foreign Policy, War is Boring and the Daily Beast. In 2009 he cofounded the defense and security blog Japan Security Watch. You can follow him on Twitter: @KyleMizokami. This article first appeared several years ago.

Image: Wikipedia.

Mark Episkopos

Security, Americas

The B-52 strategic bomber has its roots in a postwar procurement search for a heavy strategic bomber.

One of America’s most iconic bombers, the B-52 Stratofortress has managed to outlive its Cold War roots and is set to see service through the mid-twenty-first century.

The B-52 strategic bomber has its roots in a postwar procurement search for a heavy strategic bomber. Boeing, along with several competing companies, submitted dueling proposals. Boeing’s candidate, a colossal straight-wing aircraft called the Model 462, went on to win the tender in 1946. The process stalled amid a prolonged series of negotiations between Boeing and the Air Force, with the latter expressing concerns over the proposed bomber’s weight, speed, and bulky design. In the years that followed, Boeing churned out additional concept models that were lighter and faster—the initial design was eventually abandoned in favor of swept wings. It was only after six years, in 1952, that prototypes began to enter pre-production. By then, the strategic bomber was a thoroughly different plane from the early design concept introduced by Boeing in 1946.

Powered by Pratt & Whitney J57-P-1W turbojets that were later replaced by the markedly more powerful P&W TF33-P-3 turbofans, the B-52 supports a payload of up to 31,500 kilograms and boasts an operational range of just over fourteen thousand kilometers without aerial refueling. The B-52 isn’t particularly maneuverable or fast at a top speed of just over one thousand kilometers per hour, nor does it need to be; its primary purpose was to fly deterrence missions against the Soviet Union throughout the Cold War.

In keeping with its raison dêtre, B-52 is prodigiously armed. Beginning with its “H” revision, the B-52 bomber’s nuclear weapons capability was headlined by twelve AGM-129 advanced cruise missiles and twenty AGM-86A air-launched cruise missiles? The AGM-86A was theoretically able to overwhelm Soviet missile defenses with saturation strikes launched outside of Soviet airspace. The B-52 bomber likewise supports an exhaustive list of weapons for a wide range of conventional missions: among them, AGM-84 Harpoon missiles, joint direct-attack munitions (JDAM), AGM-142 Raptor missiles, and AGM-86C conventional air-launched cruise missiles (CALCM).

Capable of delivering huge payloads at vast distances, the B-52 bomber quickly became a U.S. Air Force staple in the Vietnam War. The strategic bombers flew hundreds of combat sorties and dropped over fifteen tons of bombs on North Vietnamese targets during Operation Linebacker II. More recently, the B-52 bomber distinguished itself during Operation Desert Storm: “B-52s struck wide-area troop concentrations, fixed installations and bunkers, and decimated the morale of Iraq’s Republican Guard,” read an Air Force statement.

The B-52 bomber’s greatest long-term strength has proven to be its flexibility, and nowhere is this more apparent than its remarkable ability to assimilate new weapons platforms. There are plans to upgrade B-52 bombers with AGM-183A hypersonic missiles as part of the U.S. military’s response to Russia’s recent strides in test-launching hypersonic cruise missiles.

In addition to new weapons, the Air Force’s fleet of seventy-six B-52s is slated to receive a raft of avionics and targeting updates to keep them relevant into the coming decades. B-52’s are currently being retrofitted with new data links and upgraded communications suites, as well as additional countermeasures and navigation features.

Combining a remarkably resilient airframe with a modular design approach, the B-52 bomber will be among America’s longest-serving aircraft when it eventually retires in the 2050s.

Mark Episkopos is a national security reporter for the National Interest. 

Image: Reuters