Defence`s Feeds

The UK Royal Navy (RN) plans to test a directed energy weapon at sea later this decade, the service's most senior officer has revealed. Speaking at the DSEI 2015 exhibition on 15 September, Chief of Naval Staff and First Sea Lord Admiral Sir George Zambellas also disclosed that RN exchange

As of mid-September, 52% of arms and equipment supplied to the troops comes from domestic production, Russian president Vladimir Putin said 19 September at a meeting of the Military-industrial Commission (VPK) held near Orenburg at the Donguz training range. The announcement means that the Russian

EVENT Protest leader and activist Jose Marcos Mavungo was found guilty on 14 September of an "attack on the sovereignty of the Angolan state" in the exclave of Cabinda and sentenced to six years in prison. As one of the organisers of an anti-government rally in Cabinda on 14 March, he

AT LEAST two police officers were wounded when a suspected Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant detonated his explosives targeting a joint police and paramilitary rangers search operation in the Malir area of Karachi in Pakistan's Sindh province on 20 September, The Express Tribune reported.

A SENIOR police officer - identified as Brigadier General Ahmed Mohamed Abdel Sattar Askar - was killed when suspected Islamist militants opened fire on him near a police station in the town of El-Arish in Egypt's North Sinai governorate on 19 September, Aswat Masriya reported. No group immediately

A new British Army regiment has taken over responsibility for providing trainers to prepare Iraqi Kurdish forces to take on Islamic State militants. Just more than 100 troops from the 1st Battalion, The Rifles (1 Rifles) base have replaced soldiers from the 1st Battalion, The Yorkshire Regiment,

The UK Royal Navy's Type 23 Duke-class vessel, HMS Monmouth, has completed its refit programme following a successful fleet date inspection in Naval Base Devonport.

CACI International has received a contract from the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division (NAWCAD) to continue support for its special communications mission solutions (SCMS) division.

Northrop Grumman's Sperry Marine business unit has signed a memorandum of understanding with Terma to collaborate in pursuing business in naval markets.

India and Australia have successfully completed the first bilateral maritime exercise, Ausindex15, at Visakhapatnam in India, which aimed to strengthen the defence co-operation between the countries.

French VBCI 2 Infantry Fighting Vehicle

The Al-Ofouq class patrol vessels are being procured by the Royal Navy of Oman from Singapore Technologies Marine (ST Marine) to replace the Seeb class patrol vessels, which have been in service with the Navy since the early 1980s.

 

In this week’s #CCLKOW we consider what principles ought to shape our strategic thinking with respect to regime change. Please note, this is not an endorsement of the act as sensible policy. I am relatively certain that it should be a policy of last resort, and even then its wisdom ought to be held in serious doubt. Nevertheless, we live in a world where sometimes the only policy choices are bad ones. Thus, it is necessary to consider under what strategy this could be accomplished with the least risk of spectacular failure. Or, more simply, it is not enough that we must think carefully about regime change as a policy, we must also be similarly careful about strategy and tactics if this choice is taken. Enjoy the piece, ponder the questions, and join the discussion on Twitter at #CCLKOW.

 

“You break it, you buy it.” Colin Powell’s application of the rules of shopping in Pottery Barn to regime change was hailed as quite brilliant for reminding his political masters of the dangers of such a policy choice. I would suggest, however, that within this construction there is a terrific peril for the West, as our wealth might make us think we can afford to buy it once broken. Thus, whereas Powell cautioned against regime change that was not fully cognizant of the costs it would entail, this admonition is incorrectly aimed. It is not the cost of rebuilding which is the problem. Rather, it is the nearly insurmountable challenge of re-creating something better than that which has been broken.

Here I would like to argue that rather than Pottery Barn, Humpty Dumpty is the better cautionary tale for regime change. Where the policy is even contemplated, the further taboo must be upon undue damage to the essential structures of governance and society.

 

…All the King’s horses and all the King’s men 

Couldn’t put Humpty together again.

It was a sharp realisation that perhaps a quaint children’s nursery rhyme wasn’t just a bit of fun but in fact could be an old military parable, a cautionary tale against the hubris of military might. [1] Conceiving Humpty as a state that, once fallen, could not be put back together again despite every effort of the King’s horses and men, his army, make more sense than it ought to.

Nowhere is the wisdom of the Humpty Dumpty Principle in regime change more clear than in Iraq. The speedy resolution of its first act in the summer of 2003, with relatively little damage, was tragically followed by the dismantling of key structures of the state. Perhaps it was hubris borne of the great military success achieved in driving Saddam Hussein from power which led to the orgy of societal destruction. The inability to recognise that ‘support’ for the regime was not the result of great fealty to Saddam but rather the dictates of pragmatism and survival led the coalition down the garden path to chaos and new tensions. De-Baathification may have seemed a Saint’s work, but in fact it was the beginning of the end, the first step in the slow failure that was the largely American led strategy in the country. Once broken, Iraqi politics and society suffered for the struggle to re-create a delicate balance of fragile connections. And while the old system had been clearly flawed itself, fixing that was the far easier option than refashioning the whole anew.

In sum, the coalition ought to have rejoiced in its ability to unseat Hussein without much damage and sallied forth from there. The path from 2003’s military victory ought to have looked a little something like this:

‘Here Tariq, take the keys. Don’t screw this up. We’re happy to provide some funding to help get things back on track. Send us a plan.’

 

The errors of Iraq should be forefront in the minds of anyone thinking about Syria. As utterly reprehensible (!) as the reign of terror perpetrated by Assad has been, do not imagine for a moment that the destruction of the state which sustained it will result in an outbreak of rainbows and happiness. The jackals and the jackasses are chomping at the bit to take advantage of the vacuum and chaos that would follow the dissolution of the state. Thus, although it is quite clear that he will have to go, how that will happen must be considered with the utmost care not to break that which we cannot fix. Moving even further into the harshest grey areas, how to deal with the areas under the control of the state apparatus created by ISIS should also be filling us with a bit of conflicted thought.

And so, as grist for this week’s discussion, I put to you the following questions intended to flesh out the wisdom (or lack thereof) of the principle I have offered:

1. The successes in Germany and Japan seem to refute the Humpty Dumpty Principle. What were the terms and conditions of those efforts, and do they exist in the targets of regime change we consider today?

2. Is it too easy to assume that no evil structure can be surpassed? With respect to Afghanistan, did we err in thinking that any regime created in the aftermath of the Taliban would be an improvement? Quick to break that which all were too happy to label as evil, with stories such as that published today on the creeping institutionalisation of the sorts practices which had led to the popularity of the Taliban in the first place, one has to wonder at that wisdom.

3. Is there a better strategic framework to conduct successful regime change?

 

 

Notes

[1] I am not arguing that this is the origin of the story. But it ought to be, because it’s rather quite perfect.

Statoil and Norwegian radar company ISPAS AS have signed contract for the installation of a new, advanced oil spill detection (OSD) radar system for the Johan Sverdrup field.

The Mobile Landing Platform (MLP) is a new class of auxiliary vessels under construction for the US Navy. The MLPs can be deployed in wide range of operations, including humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, counter-piracy, maritime security, amp…

Americas

• The Air Force released a Request for Information on Friday to identify potential industry sources for the re-winging of an unspecified number of A/OA-10A close air support aircraft. Over half of the A-10 Warthog fleet is already undergoing a re-winging program, with Boeing acting as prime contractor for 173 of the aircraft, with options for an additional 69. The RFI comes despite repeated calls by the Air Force’s top brass to retire the fleet early in order to free up money and resources. These calls have been blocked, with this latest RFI part of the A-10’s Thunderbolt Lifecycle Program Support (TLPS) program, intended to keep the aircraft flying until at least 2028.

• DARPA has released a solicitation for the Gremlins aerial UAV launch and recovery program, following a Request for Information release last year. With an industry day scheduled for Thursday, DARPA is hoping for a flurry of innovative ideas to push onto a concept and system architecture development Phase I.

• The Navy has test fired a Rolling Airframe Missile Block 1A from an Independence-class Littoral Combat Ship, the USS Coronado (LCS-4). The trimaran’s SeaRAM air defense system fired the missile as part of a risk-reduction and certification trial. The SeaRAM system incorporates the Rolling Airframe Missile and the Block 1B Phalanx Close-In Weapon System (CIWS) as a more flexible air defense system, trading bolt-on versatility for a reduced missile load compared with the RAM system on its own.

• Following the increased F-35 procurement cost suffered by the Netherlands last week, Canada is likely to see any possible F-35 procurement skyrocket in cost thanks to international exchange rates. Canada needs a replacement for its CF-18 Hornets, with a possible acquisition of the F-35 a highly politicized issue, this latest cost estimate revision likely to see any future program take the form of either a down-sized F-35 buy or comprise another aircraft design altogether, such as a Canadian F/A-18 Super Hornet fleet.

Europe

• MBDA has completed a final set of qualification firings of the company’s Common Anti-air Module Munition (CAMM) missile in Sweden, ahead of planned testing next year by Lockheed Martin for the 3-Cell ExLS Stand Alone Launcher designed to fire the missile. The European missile manufacturer has also begun delivering Sea Ceptor hardware to the Royal Navy for installation on HMS Argyll, with the air defense system intended to modernize the aging Type 23 frigate by replacing the Seawolf system currently fitted. The CAMM missile forms part of the Sea Ceptor system, along with advanced targeting sensors. The system is also capable of receiving targeting data from a third party, allowing it to form part of a comprehensive air defense network.

• Germany will upgrade 16 Dutch Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks to the 2A7 configuration, before these are integrated into the Bundeswehr’s 1st Panzer Division, according to reports on Friday. The Dutch already operate airborne forces embedded with Germany’s rapid reaction force, with this the first time a main battle tank unit will be directly integrated into a German division. The two armies also cooperate on air and missile defense, as part of bilateral military cooperation agreements. Krauss-Maffei Wegmann previously upgraded German Leopard 2s to the 2A7 configuration, including twenty former Dutch tanks supplied by Canada. Germany has been looking to bolster its tank inventories in recent months, dusting off approximately 100 Leopard 2A4s in April to bring back into frontline service, with upgrades planned from 2017.

• Despite Boeing’s P-8A Poseidon seemingly earmarked for a lucrative Royal Navy maritime patrol aircraft contract as part of the UK’s Strategic Defence & Security Review (due for release in coming weeks) industry competitors and the Royal United Services Institute are calling for a competition to open up the deal, estimated to value GBP2 billion ($3.1 billion). Airbus, Finmeccanica, Lockheed Martin, L-3 and Saab are among those calling for such a competition, along with Northrop Grumman, thought to be considering offering the company’s Triton UAV. The UK has been without a dedicated airborne maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare platform since the MRA4 Nimrod was scrapped in 2010.

• The Royal Navy’s AW159 Wildcat helicopter has completed heat trials in the Middle East, with these taking place aboard Type 45 destroyer HMS Duncan, following dispatch of the helicopter to Bahrain.

Middle East

• Russia has deployed ground-attack aircraft to its forward operating base in Latakia, Syria, satellite imagery revealed over the weekend. The aircraft appear to be SU-30SM multi-role aircraft capable of conducting long-range ground attack missions, despite incorrect identification in early reports identifying the four aircraft as SU-27 air superiority fighters. Several Mi-24 Hind attack and Mi-17 Hip utility helicopters have also appeared at the base in recent days, along with T-90 main battle tanks, BTR-type APCs, artillery units and other equipment. Strategic transport aircraft have also been identified unloading at the base, amid reports that Russian personnel are keeping their Syrian partners at an arm’s length from the base.

Asia & Pacific

• A Pakistani military official reportedly confirmed rumours on Friday of negotiations to buy Russian SU-35 fighters, despite scepticism from analysts over Pakistan’s ability to operate and maintain the aircraft, as well as concern over potential political backlash from India. The negotiations were first reported earlier this month, with the discussions also thought to involve a possible acquisition of Mi-35M attack helicopters. Pakistan’s Air Force reportedly requires a twin-engined aircraft with a longer strike range than the JF-17s, Mirage-5s and F-16s it currently operates, with reports from last year indicating a possible interest in the Chinese J-31 to this end.

• Four or five Indian companies are reportedly competing for a contract to assemble Ka-226T helicopters in India alongside Russian Helicopters. The Indian government cleared the helicopters’ procurement in May, following a competition restart in March. The Russian design beat bids from Airbus and Bell to clinch the $700 million deal for 197 helicopters, with these destined for use by the Indian Army. Moscow is hoping that an agreement between the Indian and Russian governments during Modi’s visit to the country later this year will help the helicopter deal bypass India’s notorious Defence Procurement Procedure acquisition process.

Today’s Video

• The Royal Navy’s Wildcat display team, the Black Cats:

General Dynamics (GD) Electric Boat has received a $321.7m contract option from the US Navy to deliver planning yard work, engineering, and technical support for nuclear submarines.

Irving Shipbuilding has awarded an implementation subcontract to L-3 MAPPS for the supply of the integrated platform management system (IPMS) for the Royal Canadian Navy's (RCN) new class of arctic / offshore patrol ships (AOPS).

IFEN Ing. Amedeo Lia Industria Forniture Elettriche Navali, founded in 1951 and based in Ceparana (La Spezia), Italy, is divided into two divisions: a naval magnetism division and an electrical divis...

The UK Royal Navy's multi-role survey vessel HMS Enterprise has rescued 377 migrants from the Mediterranean Sea as part of Italian-led EU rescue operations.