Diplomacy & Crisis News

“The American Marines made quite the man out of you!”

What would happen if the president of the U.S. could not trust the Army to carry out a mission?

Dominique DAVID, conseiller du président de l’Ifri, rédacteur en chef de Politique étrangère et co-directeur du Ramses était l’invité de Thierry GARCIN sur France Culture, mercredi 16 septembre 2015, dans l’émission « Les Enjeux internationaux ». Il y a présenté l’édition 2016 du « Rapport annuel mondial sur le système économique et les stratégies » et examiné la question de l’existence d’un véritable système international.

« On parle souvent du « système international » sans vraiment le définir, de la « communauté internationale » en en faisant un tout, de la « société internationale » en en faisant un fourre-tout, de l’« ordre international » en cachant le désordre international, pourtant si manifeste. »

Mais comment fonctionnent les relations internationales, qui reposent en grande partie sur les relations interétatiques, malgré une certaine mondialisation de la politique étrangère, voire de la diplomatie ?

Promeuvent-elles avec tant de succès la démocratie ? S’achemine-t-on vers un monde plus multipolaire ?

Le rôle de l’État reste-t-il déterminant, quels que soient les régimes en place ?

La recherche de l’équilibre n’est-elle au fond qu’un processus sans fin ?

Pour écouter l’émission, cliquez ici.

Pour découvrir le sommaire du Ramses 2016 cliquez ici.

A “heinous” attack against a camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Yola, north-eastern Nigeria, where some 32,000 people have found refuge, was strongly condemned today by an independent United Nations human rights expert.

(Own report) - Germany's close Arabian allies are using German weapons to launch their deadly offensive on Yemen's capital. Saudi Arabia has been carrying out its aggression on that country for about half a year, seeking to drive the Huthi rebels, considered allies of Iran, out of Sana'a. The Saudi military is using German weapons to wage its war, and its allies - the United Arab Emirates and Qatar - have also been equipped by German arms manufacturers. The air forces of these three Gulf dictatorships have been training aerial combat with the Bundeswehr and acquired skills that they could now put to use in their offensive on Sana'a. This is significant because observers have noted their extreme ruthlessness in combat methods. More than 5,000 people, half of them civilians, have been killed; a vast number of others have fled. However, the majority of those fleeing cannot leave their country - also because German technology blocks their routes at the Yemeni borders. Relief supplies into the country are insufficient due to a Saudi blockade. More than a quarter of the population is currently suffering acute starvation. Germany, however, is continuing its arms deliveries to Saudi Arabia's war coalition.

Stanley Hoffmann, spécialiste de relations internationales à l’université de Harvard, vient de nous quitter. En 1983, il avait publié dans Politique étrangère (4/1983) un article remarquable sur la pensée de Raymond Aron. Ce texte avait été republié en 2006, à l’occasion du 70e anniversaire de notre revue. Nous vous invitons à le relire.

L’ampleur de l’œuvre de Raymond Aron a toujours fait le désespoir de ses commentateurs – et de ses disciples. On peut s’attendre à la publication de divers textes inédits ; néanmoins, hélas, cette œuvre est désormais achevée. Ce qui devrait permettre d’étudier enfin, en profondeur, la contribution scientifique qu’elle a apportée – de séparer en quelque sorte les deux activités que Raymond Aron a menées de concert et a souvent entremêlées : l’activité proprement journalistique, commentaires d’une actualité qu’il se sentait le devoir d’élucider et d’interpréter, et l’activité du théoricien, philosophe de l’histoire, sociologue des sociétés contemporaines, ou critique de la pensée politique et sociale des grands auteurs.

Lire la suite de cet article.

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(Own report) - Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, is calling for the Bundeswehr's deployment in Syria. It is high time, to discuss "seriously" the creation of so-called safe havens and "no-fly zones in and around Syria," according to Ischinger. This "of course" would call for the participation of the German Armed Forces and in relationship to the deployment of ground forces, "nothing can be ruled out." Ischinger is also providing justification for going to war. Whereas Syria has been submerged in war, because of the arms supplies furnished by the West and its regional allies to insurgent militias - including Al Qaeda and the "Islamic State" (IS), this influential diplomat claims that the current "conflagration" is the consequence of Western non-intervention. These war plans are, however, a reaction to Russia's growing influence also in the Middle East. In recent months, Moscow has been holding extensive negotiations in view of settling the Syrian war. In his speech before the UN General Assembly on September 28, President Putin is expected to propose a new anti-IS coalition, with inclusion of the Syrian government. Therefore, in the framework of the Western Alliance, Berlin would like to counter Russia's growing role in international politics.

Trop complexe, trop confus, trop lourd… Le code du travail est devenu l'ennemi public numéro un — celui qui empêche d'embaucher, de licencier, de créer des emplois, de donner une place aux jeunes, d'innover, d'exporter, etc. L'acte d'accusation se nourrit chaque jour de nouveaux éléments . On (...) / France, Capitalisme, Économie, Politique, Syndicalisme, Travail - La valise diplomatique

La crise qui balaye l'Union européenne n'évince pas mécaniquement les gouvernements sortants : les élections générales britanniques de mai ont conforté un gouvernement de conservateurs millionnaires en guerre contre les démunis. Comment expliquer un tel paradoxe ? / Europe, Royaume-Uni, Démocratie, (...) / Europe, Royaume-Uni, Démocratie, Économie, Élections, Finance, Idéologie, Inégalités, Parti politique, Politique, Social-démocratie, Sondage d'opinion, Socialisme, Ecosse, Néolibéralisme - 2015/06

(Own report) - Berlin has closed its southern borders to refugees, preventing other victims of civil wars from entering, and has begun deportations of rejected asylum applicants back to Southeast Europe. Inconsistencies among government officials over how to approach the refugee problem have ultimately led to an unexpected influx of tens of thousands of refugees. Thousands in the German population have made a unique display of helpfulness toward refugees, helpfulness, the government will now render futile. At today's EU Interior and Justice Ministers Meeting, measures will be promoted to once again seal the EU borders and establish camps to hold refugees immediately upon their arrivals in Greece, Italy, and possibly Hungary. One such camp has been opened in Germany to separate Southeast European refugees for their rapid deportation. Last week, one hundred eleven refugees were deported by plane to Kosovo. Half of the 250,000 refugees, who entered Germany this year, between January and August, are threatened with immediate deportation. At the same time, demands are being raised to drastically reduce state support for refugees and to abolish the fundamental individual right of asylum.

Le long des ruelles pavées de La Havane, un touriste court derrière une mélodie. Tierno, alias El Palenque, natif de Guinée, installé à Paris, mais dont les racines maternelles sont cubaines, espère qu'en retrouvant l'origine de la chanson qui lui trotte entre les oreilles depuis l'enfance, il (...) / Afrique, Caraïbes, Culture, Histoire, Littérature, Cuba, Guinée - 2015/09

Oh Mrs Wu, what will you do?  Photograph by AFP/Getty Images

Is the Chinese economic model doomed or is the Western business press making much ado about nothing?  Last month we witnessed how China’s falling stock markets, and the subsequent inadequate responses from Chinese regulatory authorities, were blamed for subsequent falls in worldwide stock markets. Many analysts scrambled for answers, insinuating that the precipitous decline in China’s stock markets must have had something to do with fundamentals—there must be something seriously wrong with the Chinese economy. An editorial in the Global Times argued that the Western investors’ panic is overdone. “The stock market’s sharp fall is like a fever, but foreign media describes it as a cancer. If so, the market plunge seven years ago would have ended the China model.”

While the jury is still out on whether or not the Chinese economy has cancer, the Global Times editorial does send a correct message: in China, the stock markets have very little to do with fundamentals. Typically, stock markets in China are driven by government announcements of loosening or tightening fiscal policy, and changes to monetary policy. Last year, public announcements by government officials on the health of the stock markets helped drive up share prices to exorbitant levels.  Other actions, such as announcing that banks will have to hold smaller reserves in order to free up more money for lending (whether or not companies are in a mood to borrow) has driven stock markets higher.

If stock markets were really driven by fundamentals in China, they would not have risen dramatically over the last twelve months while slower growth targets were simultaneously being announced by Chinese authorities and commodity prices were crashing.  Similarly, the fall of China’s stock exchanges (stocks in Shanghai have fallen more than 39 percent since mid-June) have little to do with the underlying economy and more with punters cashing in their gains before the Ponzi scheme collapses. The same panic in the U.S. markets (the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6.6 percent in August—its worst performance in three years) has very little to do with fundamentals in China, for few U.S. companies have significant profits coming out of China.  

Analysts are now blaming a slowing manufacturing sector in China as Western markets continue to decline, and Beijing’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of 7 percent is also being questioned. Other analysts are probing further into such growth indicators as electricity usage, commodity prices and cement production to arrive at growth rates close to half the target.  

Concern over China’s growth (data released this week showed manufacturing sector slowing at the fastest pace in three years) prompted the central bank to cut interest rates and loosen bank lending—measures which again triggered panic in stock markets worldwide.  And in an effort to support its manufacturing sector, the yuan has also been allowed to weaken in order to make Chinese exports cheaper to purchase by other countries.  

Economists have long argued China needs to move away from an economy driven largely by cheap manufacturing and toward one based on services and domestic consumption.  This shift is already happening, as consumption contributed 50 percent of GDP growth and manufacturing approximately 30 percent. Market watchers also argued that the Chinese stock markets are overvalued, yet many were willing to gamble.  Despite the recent froth having been taken off the stock markets, many of the 9 percent of Chinese who invest in the stock markets in China have made money, though their earnings will do little to boost domestic consumption spending.  The irrational exuberance of the Chinese stock market bubble is in the process of deflating.

But what of the argument that the U.S. markets will further deflate due to disappointing manufacturing data coming out of China?  If we hold the other components of GDP constant, even a halving of manufacturing growth will take little off growth, since it only accounts for one-third of GDP and declines could be offset by growth in other sectors, should the Chinese government chose to stimulate agriculture, infrastructure or consumption through a variety of means.

The above sectors are the ones which could come under attack in the next few days, as market analysts try to point to other weakening components of the Chinese GDP as the cause for the fall of worldwide stock markets. Yet, with all eyes on China, how well the Party leadership responds to these concerns with greater transparency and guidance may continue to drive stock market volatility worldwide in the coming weeks.

This past year has seeing the US dollar and the US economy growing steadily after years of anemic progress following the 2009 global recession. Economies like China and Brazil, once the stable economic engines surviving the recession with a few scratches, are now the likely source of a new global economic downturn. The reliability of Chinese economic data has not been stellar, and nervous investors have fled the Chinese market this past month due to fears of a greater crash in the Chinese economy. Emerging markets that depended on Chinese growth in order to profit from raw material exports have been struggling. Economic mismanagement and a dwindling source of revenue coming from exports to China has left Brazil in a perilous economic situation—a situation they assumed was in the past and would stay in the history books.

The shrinking demand in China has affected natural resource economies in different ways. Low oil prices have hit emerging markets hard, and have even dented some otherwise healthy and diverse economies. Canada, an example of a diversified economy based on manufacturing and energy, has been able to weather a low oil price by ramping up manufacturing. With the drop in oil prices and other natural resources due to the slowdown in China, the Canadian dollar has fallen, making Canadian manufactured good less expensive on the global market. While Canada’s manufacturing regions face additional challenges, the low Canadian dollar acts as a cushion to a drop in commodity prices by boosting demand for Canadian goods.

Germany has benefited the most from previous double digit growth in China. Demand in China for high-end German manufactured goods, especially in the automotive sector, has driven much of Germany’s impressive growth over the last few years. Engineering and high-end German products helped build much of China’s transport and infrastructure during its boom. With a slowdown in Chinese growth, Germany’s source of wealthy consumers may be greatly restricted. While Canada offsets its energy sector losses with an increase in manufacturing and exports thanks to a low currency value, the slowdown in China has created a situation where funds leaving China have gone into euros. With investors seeking a safe haven for their funds, the value of the euro was up greatly compared to other world currencies this month. A slowdown in demand for German products and a high euro is creating a barrier to purchasing European goods and services for those outside the region. Even with a high US dollar, the boost in the value of the euro will deter Germany’s other large export market, the United States, from buying its products.

The slowdown in China may not be as severe as many expect, but it is unlikely that demand for German high-end products and engineering services will rebound in China for the next few months. The value of the euro may respond to Germany’s economic slowdown, but if investors keep the euro high, it will be a difficult time to purchase European goods for the rest of us. Expect the European Central Bank to address this challenge if the Euro remains high and demand does not return to a healthy level. In the end, it will really depend on China and whether investors trust the economic data coming out from the government and cushion losses in China by returning to the yuan.

Le DJ et compositeur britannique Matthew Herbert est avant tout associé à l'univers de la dance culture. Mais la quinzaine d'albums qu'il a publiés ces vingt dernières années vont du jazz aux expérimentations les plus extrêmes en passant par la house music, des bandes originales pour le théâtre, le (...) / Royaume-Uni, Agriculture, Agroalimentaire, Animal, Art, Capitalisme, Culture, Multinationales, Musique, Commerce - 2015/09

Dans les marais, « deux chiens se battent pour un bout de barbaque ». Il s'agit, vu de plus près, d'une main. Ce pourrait être le début d'un polar ; mais il va s'agir d'un crime autrement plus important : la mise à sac d'un pays, l'Espagne. Dans une petite localité balnéaire, non loin de Valence, (...) / Espagne, Capitalisme, Culture, Littérature, Mutation, Société - 2015/09

Suite au sondage réalisé sur ce blog, nous avons le plaisir de vous offrir l’article du numéro d’automne 2015 de Politique étrangère que vous avez choisi : « La politique étrangère de l’Algérie : le temps de l’aventure ? », par Jean-François Daguzan.

Longtemps, la politique étrangère algérienne est allée de son train de sénateur. Définie dès les premières années de l’indépendance et marquée par la guerre de libération, la politique étrangère du jeune État s’est caractérisée par l’énoncé d’un ensemble de dogmes dont les gouvernements successifs ne sortirent jamais vraiment. Elle dut bien prendre en compte la fin des blocs et les désillusions de l’après-décolonisation, mais sans jamais se défaire tout à fait des habits d’un certain un âge d’or. La diplomatie fut si importante pendant la période Boumediene qu’elle favorisa l’émergence de diplomates de grande qualité qui furent très actifs dans les organisations internationales. Cette politique étrangère suit un fil rouge : Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Dès avant l’indépendance, l’actuel président est présent dans les processus de décision : il sera le ministre des Affaires étrangères de Boumediene, et après une éclipse sous Chadli Bendjedid et la transition de la guerre civile, il revient en tant que président et imprime quasiment seul sa marque sur la politique étrangère – jusqu’à ce que la maladie vienne freiner son action. À partir de 1999, Bouteflika n’a de cesse de restaurer l’image de l’Algérie ternie par les années de plomb et il la désenclave politiquement[1]. Mais cette relance va être conduite dans le cadre théorique d’une diplomatie construite par la lutte pour l’indépendance et par les années Boumediene. Les principes définis sous son leadership, et qui sous-tendent encore aujourd’hui la politique extérieure algérienne, sont les suivants : soutien à la décolonisation, non-intervention au-delà des frontières, coopération et multilatéralisme, libération de la Palestine ; Sahara occidental[2].

Aujourd’hui, les printemps arabes et leur cortège de déstabilisations, la mondialisation économique et la crise économique et financière (qui fut un des catalyseurs de la révolte), ont balayé les certitudes. L’Europe, qui paraissait une force en marche, est désormais désorientée. Enfin, la crise libyenne a mis le feu aux confins sahéliens. Tout oblige désormais l’Algérie à une redéfinition de ses choix stratégiques.

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[1]. A. Boukhars, « Algerian Foreign Policy in the Context of the Arab Spring », Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 14 janvier 2013, disponible sur : <http//carnegieenddowment.org/2013/01/14/algerian-foreign-policy-in-context-of-arab-spring/f1xf>, p. 3.

[2]. Voir l’ouvrage fondateur de N. Grimaud : La Politique étrangère de l’Algérie, Paris, Khartala, 1984.

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Au pays du Cerf Blanc, la rivalité séculaire entre les clans Bai et Lu perturbe gentiment le cheminement des saisons. Dans ce village sis à une journée de marche de la cité de Xi'an , les deux chefs de clan entretiennent les codes et les rites d'une Chine impériale dont ils ignorent la (...) / Chine, Histoire, Bande dessinée - 2015/09

Dans Tout peut changer , la journaliste canadienne Naomi Klein livre sa prise de conscience du lien entre capitalisme et changement climatique. La brutalité de l'exploitation des hydrocarbures au Canada, où elle réside, lui apparaît comme un élément de l'« écocide », cette guerre globale contre la (...) / Capitalisme, Écologie, Économie, Entreprise, Finance, Multinationales, Mutation, Pétrole, Matières premières, Climat, Environnement, Gaz naturel - 2015/09

La imagen de Camerún como una isla de paz en medio de una región tumultuosa terminó en 2013, cuando la violencia de Boko Haram cruzó la frontera nigeriana. Este grupo está afiliado al llamado Estado Islámico o Daesh, e incluso se rebautizó como Estado Islámico de África Occidental a principios de este año. Pero la forma brutal de yihadismo africano que representa difícilmente se explica por el auge del Estado Islámico en Irak y Siria. De hecho, es en parte una consecuencia del cambiante panorama religioso africano, que afecta y no poco a Camerún.